FMCT Negotiations: The Next Gathering Nuclear Storm?
Rajesh Kumar Mishra
May 07, 2007
The Presidential Draft Decision at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) decided on March 23, 2007 to appoint a co-ordinator each to preside over the discussions on three core issues on the agenda - nuclear disarmament, prevention of arms race in outer space (PAROS) and negative nuclear security guarantee. At the same time, the Presidential Draft Decision also named Ambassador Carlo Trezza of Italy as the co-ordinator to preside over negotiations on the fourth core issue - a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty.
The Presidential Draft Decision at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) decided on March 23, 2007 to appoint a co-ordinator each to preside over the discussions on three core issues on the agenda - nuclear disarmament, prevention of arms race in outer space (PAROS) and negative nuclear security guarantee. At the same time, the Presidential Draft Decision also named Ambassador Carlo Trezza of Italy as the co-ordinator to preside over negotiations on the fourth core issue - a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. It is the latter decision that has however drawn greater attention than the other three issues related to disarmament. Why?
The greater focus of attention at the CD on FMCT came at a time when the preparatory consultations for the 2010 NPT Review Conference was around the corner beginning April 30, 2007. The last NPT Review Conference (RevCon) took place in May 2005 to salvage the Treaty itself in the wake of disclosures about the hidden nuclear ambitions and acts of NPT-defined non-nuclear weapon states including Libya and North Korea. The loopholes in the Treaty were exposed by the actions of states, like Iran for instance, which deliberately employed or engaged extensive networks of non-state actors to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and components. Above all, the international nuclear non-proliferation regime faced irreparable damage in the hands of the Pakistan-based A. Q. Khan network.
The mutually competing interests of NPT members did not allow any substantive outcome at the last NPT RevCon, especially with regard to the prevention of deviations by member states from commitments related to its so-called twin pillars - non-proliferation and disarmament. The treaty failed to address challenges related to the transfer of nuclear technology, which is dual-use in nature: it can legitimately be used by non-nuclear weapon states under the NPT for peaceful energy purposes, while at the same time it can also be diverted to develop weapons.
And just like the continuity in non-proliferation problems, the future of disarmament also remains uncertain. This is mainly because of the inherent weakness in prevailing NPT provisions, which do not talk of a time-bound action plan for nuclear disarmament by Treaty-defined nuclear weapon states. Of course, the United States and Russia have been constantly projecting the view that they have ceased their arms race and are working towards disarmament by signing bilateral strategic arms reduction treaties. But these bilateral treaties have been subject to criticism that they are neither adequately transparent nor do they guarantee irreversibility. One particular criticism is that the dismantling of nuclear warheads by the United States and Russia does not provide enough assurance that the fissile material contained in them would not be re-used or that the warheads themselves would not be redeployed in future.
The reality is that thousands of nuclear warheads exist in the arsenals of major nuclear weapon states and more than 30 countries remain part of military alliances that extend the nuclear umbrella over them. Many European countries and Japan fall into this category of states that benefit from America's extended deterrence. Trends available on China's force modernisation, continuing replenishment of nuclear armaments by Russia and France, US decisions on the reliable warhead replacement programme and British resolve to ensure the strategic relevance of nuclear weapons for future decades, India's willingness to build a credible minimum deterrent, Pakistan's continued stockpiling of nuclear weapons, and Israel's nuclear capability brushed under the carpet from public glare - all indicate that nuclear disarmament has a daunting future ahead. However, whatever part measures are taken would go towards shaping a better future. In this context, how does the FMCT fit into the overall scheme of disarmament?
A Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty is all about halting the production of fissile material for weapons. Interestingly, the United States has been showing considerable interest over the last couple of years in negotiations and to bring the issue towards some conclusive end. So much so that in its White Paper on FMCT presented at the CD on May 19, 2006, the US expressed the view that "pending the conclusion of a Cutoff Treaty and the Treaty's entry into force, all states should declare publicly and observe a moratorium on the production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons." In other words, pending conclusion of an FMCT, the US wants all countries to declare a unilateral moratorium on the production of fissile material.
There is in fact an already existing self-declared moratorium of fissile material production declared by the US, Russia, Britain and France. Of course, they have produced enough fissile material for their present and possible future requirements. By signing an FMCT, these countries would have nothing to sacrifice, while at the same time they would gain by portraying their action as a movement towards disarmament in accordance with their NPT commitment. It is quite plausible that the United States, by showcasing its renewed interest in the FMCT, wishes to re-establish its credibility by engaging in multilateralism. If the US were to succeed in inducing and mobilising China to work towards a multilateral treaty in this regard, negotiations on the FMCT is likely to conclude before the NPT RevCon in 2010.
There has, however, been speculation that the intensified American effort on FMCT negotiations could be intended to target China, India and Pakistan. It has been pointed out that China successfully lobbied for omitting any reference to a fissile material production moratorium in the final document of the NPT RevCon in 2000. And in order to reduce American pressure on it to commit to an FMCT, China has been maintaining that PAROS and FMCT negotiations require equal attention at the Conference on Disarmament. Jenni Rissanen, in a December 2006 article published in Disarmament Diplomacy, concluded that "faced with the possibility that missile defences could undermine" its deterrent China "may want to hold open the option of continuing - or more probably, resuming - fissile material production in the future."
However, China may not continue to insist on equal treatment for PAROS and FMCT given its own pursuit of space weaponry. It has already conducted a successful anti-satellite missile test. Aware of the fact that only the US and Russia possess such a capability and that the US is unlikely to compromise on its military interests in space, Beijing may have realised that there is no point in emphasising the linkage between the two issues beyond a point. On the other hand, given its own fissile stock, presumably lesser than that of the US and of Russia though manifold in size compared with that of India, China may agree to join hands on an FMCT that would ultimately place a cap on India's fissile material production as well.
Against this backdrop, before articulating its position on the FMCT, India needs to conduct a review of its own credible minimum deterrent requirements. Before the major nuclear weapon states start tightening the noose around India, New Delhi should do the necessary homework in terms of calculating its overall requirements of fissile material for both military and civilian purposes. At the same time, it also has to evolve a calibrated strategy to ensure that its national interests are safeguarded even as it intensifies its pace of engagement and integration with the international economic, political and security system
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Nuclear, Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT)
Nuclear and Arms Control
IDSA COMMENT
India should beware of US motives on nuclear deal
Ramesh Phadke
May 03, 2007
From all accounts it appears that the much talked about India-US nuclear deal is slowly but surely unravelling. This should not come as a surprise. Right from the beginning when the US secretary of State declared her country's intention to help India become a major power, we should have become alert since it is not very often that one major or superpower will help another to become a possible contender in the future. There were many other indications as well in terms of opposition to the deal. The US non-proliferation lobby vehemently opposed it.
From all accounts it appears that the much talked about India-US nuclear deal is slowly but surely unravelling. This should not come as a surprise. Right from the beginning when the US secretary of State declared her country's intention to help India become a major power, we should have become alert since it is not very often that one major or superpower will help another to become a possible contender in the future. There were many other indications as well in terms of opposition to the deal. The US non-proliferation lobby vehemently opposed it. Both Democrats and Republicans only very reluctantly agreed to approve it and that too after much wrangling and very many amendments, although all the proposed amendments were mercifully not incorporated. The EU and NSG were also opposed to the deal as they perhaps saw themselves being bulldozed into relaxing rules for a new entrant at the behest of the US and more importantly since it was clear that America was pursuing its own national interests. China quietly opposed it but patiently watched the developments with hints of how it could also offer similar assistance to Pakistan.
Within India, communists and other liberal leftists opposed the deal as they saw it as a sell out to the forces of imperialism. Indian scientists let it be known that they were extremely unhappy about one major likely implication and expressly said that India could not sign away its sovereign right to test in the future should a contingency necessitate our having to do so. Finally, the BJP, which had worked very hard to convince the US of India's security concerns through the seemingly interminable rounds of Strobe Talbot-Jaswant Singh talks, also joined the Communists in terming the deal a sell out as it was not in favour of ever giving up the option to test in the future even if the said option was not exercised for a century.
India was, is, and shall always remain a very reluctant nuclear power. No political party, definitely not the Congress-led UPA, would ever go seriously beyond keeping the options open in developing a real 'minimum effective nuclear deterrent' or whatever else one may wish to call it. India's sporadic attempts at further developing its strategic missile capability is proof enough of such a weak-kneed approach. It seems India saw the US offer of a deal in 2005 as a rare opportunity for it to achieve at least three of its strategic objectives without having to make too many substantive commitments or sacrifices or take bold steps. India perhaps thought that it could quickly join the exalted club without paying the membership fee in terms of expenditure on nuclear weapons R&D, gain access to nuclear power technology, and overcome the refusal of the NSG to treat India as a legitimate customer for new technologies. Some optimists even went to the extent of dreaming up a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The fiasco of our nominee's withdrawal even before the contest for the UN Secretary General's post should have given us ample evidence of the reality of where India's actual position is in the global scheme of things.
What is also surprising is the eagerness with which India so easily agreed to separate parts of its civilian and military nuclear establishment and declare the former for international inspection. The US had in effect already attained its longstanding objective of getting India to 'cap and roll back' its weapons programme since it now seems clear that the US would not want India to reprocess its spent fuel nor do any vigorous research in nuclear technology.
Another important facet of this subject that has been pushed under the carpet is the problem of nuclear safety, reliability, cost of construction and waste disposal. The common man is perplexed to find that in all these long winding discussions there is no mention of these vital issues although just a few years ago every one was dubbing nuclear power as very expensive and unsafe if not downright dangerous. France, a long time user of nuclear power, has decided to scale back its nuclear power generation. The US, which is the main actor in nuclear power industry, has not constructed a new nuclear power reactor over the past two decades. Why then is the US so keen that India takes the nuclear route to meet its burgeoning energy needs? One obvious link is the vested commercial interests of the US nuclear power reactor lobby to sell equipment and technology to India and earn huge profits. The other less obvious reason could very well be American oil interests. What the US oil giants essentially want is for the global oil economy to continue to function exactly as it has been for the better part of the last century - under American control. By firmly getting India set on the nuclear power route, the US could ensure that New Delhi became dependent for new technology, stopped its own R&D efforts and continued to use ever increasing quantities of oil since even with all the new civilian nuclear power stations working to their capacity India would still require oil to meet its energy needs. US pressure on India not to go ahead with the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is further evidence that Washington wishes to keep India tied down to traditional sources of energy supplies where US interests rule supreme.
The so-called 'win-win' deal will also give the US increased leverage to arm twist India in its foreign and economic policy options. But if India decides to remain aloof from these overtures then it retains its options and flexibility. Going by the example of China, if India concentrates solely on strengthening its economy then a day is not far when the US and other countries will have to take notice of India's true power. As it stands, the proposed civilian nuclear deal may prove to be a major impediment to India's aspirations.
It is worth considering the recent stance taken by small players like North Korea, Iran and Venezuela when they deal with US pressure. None has succumbed to America's strong-arm tactics, and Hugo Chavez has in fact upped the ante by withdrawing his country from the IMF and World Bank while Iran continues with uranium enrichment. What these show is that although the US undoubtedly continues to be the sole superpower, its capacity to influence the actions of even small countries is extremely limited and getting further reduced as it goes on blundering its way into Iraq.
What then can India do? India could well start by simply slowing down the discussions with the US, while simultaneously building bridges with Russia, the EU, Japan, Iran and other oil producing countries in improving access to oil, gas and most importantly to alternative energy technologies so that it can safeguard its energy security, reduce its dependence on traditional sources of oil and also help fight global warming. Technologies such as solar, wind, coal-based methane, double integrated gasification, and bio-fuels offer a huge scope for dividends and also help build energy security.
India, Nuclear deal, United States of America (USA)
Nuclear and Arms Control
IDSA COMMENT
Wen Jiabao's Ice-Melting Visit to Japan
Abanti Bhattacharya
April 25, 2007
Wen Jiabao's three-day visit to Japan starting on April 11, 2007 was the first visit by a Chinese Premier in seven years. It has been hailed as an 'ice-melting' visit, distinguishing it from the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'ice-breaking' visit to China in October 2006. Though the visit did not bring about any fundamental change in Sino-Japanese relations, it did strike a new chord by enabling the relationship to be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective. For the first time, a visit did not focus squarely on the history issue.
Wen Jiabao's three-day visit to Japan starting on April 11, 2007 was the first visit by a Chinese Premier in seven years. It has been hailed as an 'ice-melting' visit, distinguishing it from the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'ice-breaking' visit to China in October 2006. Though the visit did not bring about any fundamental change in Sino-Japanese relations, it did strike a new chord by enabling the relationship to be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective. For the first time, a visit did not focus squarely on the history issue. Rather its aim was to flesh out the contents of the strategically and mutually beneficial relationship that was agreed upon by the two sides in the October 2006 meeting.
The history issue had overshadowed Sino-Japanese relations in the last few decades. While China had relegated its historical animosities with most countries to the backburner and instead gave preference to economics over politics, with Japan it has tended to consider history as the key issue. But this visit for the first time downgraded the history factor and emphasised upon economic, energy, and environmental issues. In his speech to the Japanese Diet, the first by a high-level Chinese dignitary in 22 years, Wen Jiabao briefly touched upon the history issue and said, "We believe that we need to take history as a mirror to guide the growth of our ties in the future. By stressing the importance of drawing lessons from history, we do not mean to perpetuate hatred. Rather we want to secure a better future for our relations." His speech was particularly encouraging as there was no mention of the Yasukuni Shrine. Some media reports suggested that this change in China's foreign policy approach was cosmetic and primarily driven by the forthcoming Olympic Games scheduled to be held in Beijing in 2008. Though the history factor would continue to hold considerable importance in Sino-Japanese relations, the visit does indicate China's forward looking and pragmatic foreign policy approach.
This pragmatism was visible in the five principles that Wen laid out in his Diet speech to build lasting Sino-Japanese relations. The first of these five principles was the need to increase mutual trust and honour commitments. In this context, Wen mentioned the Taiwan issue and sought Japan's co-operation and prudence on China's core national issue. The second principle related to seeking common ground while shelving differences and upholding the larger interests of the two countries. In this regard, Wen mentioned the issue of the East China Sea dispute, to tackle which the two countries should follow the principle of shelving differences and seek joint development so as to make it a Sea of peace, friendship and co-operation. Thirdly, he identified the promotion of common development based on equality and mutual benefit. Wen mentioned that economic development of both countries presents opportunities rather than posing threats to the other. The visit, in fact, resulted in the upgradation of bilateral economic co-operation by launching China-Japan high-level economic dialogue mechanisms. The two countries agreed to co-operate in energy, environmental protection, banking, new and high technology, information and communication and protection of intellectual property rights. Fourthly, Wen proposed the strengthening of exchanges with an eye on the future, including both mutual exchanges and mutual visits. He highlighted the fact that over 4.8 million mutual visits were made in 2006. Fifthly, he postulated close consultation to respond to challenges. Both countries agreed to maintain close co-ordination and uphold peace and stability in Northeast Asia and promote East Asia regional co-operation.
The basic content of the strategically and mutually beneficial relationship was further clearly outlined in the Japan-China Joint Press Statement signed on April 11. The eight-point Joint Statement emphasised on three broad issues - mutual exchanges, mutual co-operation, and regional and international co-operation. Mutual exchanges included the important area of defence, and the two sides decided to establish a communication mechanism between the two defence authorities in order to prevent the occurrence of unforeseen incidents at sea. Mutual co-operation included co-operation in energy and environmental protection and for the first time the two sides decided upon holding the First Energy Ministerial Policy Dialogue and the announcement of a joint statement concerning the enhancement of energy co-operation. On regional and international co-operation, both sides agreed to support United Nations reforms, co-operate on the Six-Party Talks and, most important of all, they decided to conduct joint development of East China Sea as a provisional framework until the final delimitation based on principles of mutual benefit are settled.
The joint statement however, did not lead to any concrete results on military and strategic issues. Though the proposal for joint handling of the East China Sea dispute was a welcome and significant step forward, it did not settle the row over drilling rights for natural gas deposits. Further, the statement did not spell out China's position on the crucial issue of Japan's Security Council membership and, therefore, the former's opposition to the latter's permanent membership will remain a thorny element in bilateral relations. Japan also remains apprehensive on the issue of Beijing's military build-up and lack of transparency on military spending. For its part, China is concerned about Japan's robust defence policy, deepening US-Japan alliance and growing Tokyo-Canberra military exchanges. More importantly, though the history question did not occupy the centre stage, it is far from resolved. There are significant sections in China who are not supportive of the moderate policies of Hu-Wen towards Japan and hold history to be the key issue between the two sides. In any future solution to the territorial disputes, the history factor is likely to emerge as a key contending area inhibiting improvement in bilateral relations.
Nonetheless, it appears from the Joint Statement that the key achievement of Wen's visit lay in the fact that history no longer occupies the key focus in Sino-Japanese relations. Economics have taken primacy over politics and, as hailed in the statement, stability and common development of the two countries are seen as prerequisites for both to rise peacefully. Further, co-operation on the East China Sea dispute and defence exchanges suggest upgradation of Sino-Japanese relations to the level of trust and mutual co-operation. All these indicate support for Wen Jiabao's exhortation that Sino-Japanese relations must be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective.
China-Japan Relations
East Asia
IDSA COMMENT
Sino-Japanese Relations and the 'Wen Jiabao effect'
Raviprasad Narayanan
April 20, 2007
It is no exaggeration to state that Sino-Japanese relations are currently going through a phase of renewal and revival. Reflecting current sentiments that seek to build an optimistic future, Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese leader to visit Japan since 2000. Wen's visit follows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's surprise visit to China in October 2006, which was unfortunately overshadowed by the North Korean nuclear test.
It is no exaggeration to state that Sino-Japanese relations are currently going through a phase of renewal and revival. Reflecting current sentiments that seek to build an optimistic future, Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese leader to visit Japan since 2000. Wen's visit follows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's surprise visit to China in October 2006, which was unfortunately overshadowed by the North Korean nuclear test. During the tenure of Japan's previous Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, Sino-Japanese relations had cooled substantially because of his annual visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, as also Japan's refusal to deal 'appropriately' with its history textbooks which glossed over atrocities committed by its Imperial forces in China during World War II. On the contentious 'history disputes' between the two countries, Wen presented himself at his accommodative best by stating that "to reflect on history is not to dwell on hard feelings, but to remember and learn from the past to open a better future." Wen's visit to Japan took place just before the Yasukuni shrine starts an important biannual religious ceremony honouring the 'war dead' called Reitai-Sai on 21 April.
Outlining a methodology for bilateral political relations, Wen highlighted five principles guiding their future development in a speech delivered to the Japanese Diet. These are: "to enhance mutual trust and honour commitments; to consider the overall interests of both countries and in the meantime seek common ground and shelve differences; to pursue common development on the basis of equality and mutual benefit; to strengthen exchanges with an eye on the future; and, to conduct close consultations to cope with challenges.'
Reading between the lines, these principles refer to China's expectations that Japan would adhere to the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement of 1972 - the foundation of their bilateral relations, as also Japan's stated position on the 'One China' principle. As countries of influence which have important stakes in safeguarding peace and stability in Northeast Asia, China possibly expects Japan to increase its profile in the region by sharing its technological and financial expertise. From a Chinese perspective, while there are differences in opinion on various issues, the common interests that the two countries share negate the impact of these divergent views.
Significantly, the Wen visit had an important economic aspect, which effectively balances the political differences the two countries have on various issues. Since diplomatic relations were established in 1972, commercial ties have been exemplary. Bilateral trade volume between the two countries was estimated to be around US $207.3 billion in 2006 - 200 times the figure for 1972! Japan's direct investments in China exceed $58 billion, and are responsible for the establishment of more than 30,000 enterprises and joint ventures.
For China, Japan is one of its top economic partners and until recently a major source of development assistance. Currently, China ranks third behind India and Indonesia as a recipient of Japan's Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). It would appear that for both governments mutual economic benefit is increasingly the primary determinant of the relationship. Seeking deeper economic linkages, Wen called for the two countries to jointly "explore new areas and channels" to intensify economic co-operation. He put forward a five point proposal that primarily reflects China's growing awareness about achieving a transformation of its economy into an 'efficient' one in place of its somewhat 'wasteful' current status. The five points are: "to strengthen cooperation in environmental protection; to deepen energy cooperation; to facilitate cooperation between small and medium sized enterprises; to broaden cooperation in the financial sector; and to promote mutual investments."
The above proposal is indicative of China's growing concerns arising out of the excesses resulting from its rapid economic development and consequent need for cleaner technologies to rein in environmental degradation. China seeks access to Japanese expertise in optimising energy efficiency and the shift to environmentally friendly and socially responsible manufacturing processes. Lending gravity to this aspect was the trade delegation that accompanied Wen, which comprised of 150 executives from 50 major Chinese energy companies. The need for China to step up co-operation and learn from small and mid-sized enterprises in Japan is a pointer to the fact that all is not well with the ongoing process of restructuring Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs), which in the pre-reform period were the foundations of its socialist economy. By inviting Japanese capital into its financial system, China hopes to bring in stability and transparency to a sector that has been dogged by collusion, dodgy financial dealings and off-the-record record transactions. China also invites Japanese investments into the 'western development programme' as also for the revival of industrial growth in northeast China - the SOE heartland.
The 'feel good factor' generated by Wen Jiabao could be interpreted in two ways. First, to the domestic audience in China, Wen was putting across the message that anti-Japanese sentiments need to be toned down in favour of a greater economic relationship with Japan. Second, to observers in Japan, Wen came across as a 'moderate' who is pushing for active co-operation with Japan and willing to be accommodative on the recent past as well as outstanding issues. Wen's sober statements reflect the Chinese promotion of a 'responsible rise' that tempers extreme views on Japan without compromising on its grievances against Tokyo. Despite the recent bonhomie, tensions prevail and the image of Japan in China oscillates between that of a 'partner' (huoban) and a 'rival' (duishou). China closely watches Japan's policy statements on Taiwan despite Tokyo's espousal of the 'One China' policy. As a rival, Japan's quest to be a 'normal state' coupled with its symbiotic alliance with the United States generates heated debate in China. The 1997 Guidelines for US-Japan Defence Co-operation, which gave Japan regional security responsibilities, remains a sore point. For Chinese hardliners especially, Japan has forfeited the moral right to be a political or military power owing to wartime excesses committed by its troops in China and Southeast Asia. Hence, China remains highly sensitive to any development in Japan that would seem to confirm Chinese doubts over latent Japanese militarism. Given all this, Wen Jiabao's visit has to be seen as an attempt at restoring ties with Japan to normalcy before the process of deeper engagement takes over.
China-Japan Relations
East Asia
IDSA COMMENT
Seminar on Outsourcing Possibilities in Defence: Some Impressions
Laxman Kumar Behera
April 11, 2007
The Ministry of Defence (Finance) organised a day-long seminar on March 24, 2007 on Outsourcing Possibilities in Defence. The seminar brought together a variety of perspectives – of the Services, the Ministry of Defence, industry, academia and think tanks. The March 24 event was a follow-up to the first-of-its-kind International Seminar on Defence Finance and Economics held in November 2006. Its importance lies in the fact that not long ago ‘defence’ was considered a ‘strategic’ affair and thereby excluded from public scrutiny and economic analysis.
The Ministry of Defence (Finance) organised a day-long seminar on March 24, 2007 on Outsourcing Possibilities in Defence. The seminar brought together a variety of perspectives – of the Services, the Ministry of Defence, industry, academia and think tanks. The March 24 event was a follow-up to the first-of-its-kind International Seminar on Defence Finance and Economics held in November 2006. Its importance lies in the fact that not long ago ‘defence’ was considered a ‘strategic’ affair and thereby excluded from public scrutiny and economic analysis. The Ministry’s efforts to bring greater efficiency through outsourcing is indicative not only of budgetary constraints but also of the fact that defence business could be successfully run by adopting the best private business practices. The wider intention of the seminar was to explore ways for indigenisation and self-reliance in the field of defence production and military technology by means of outsourcing defence activities to efficient and reliable private partners who could offer services in a cost-competitive, time-bound manner and remain trustworthy in the long run. The various perspectives discussed in the seminar are highlighted in the succeeding paragraphs.
From a theoretical perspective, there are four compelling factors - cost minimisation/value maximisation, resource access, superior resource leverage, and risk diversification - that drive an organisation to opt for outsourcing. The outsourcing decision is based on 'core' and 'non-core' activities that determine which activities need to be retained in-house and which are to be purchased from the market. However, in the extremely competitive global market, there exists a very thin demarcation line defining 'core' and 'non-core' activities. Also, the outsourcing decision taken by the authorities of an organisation is based on estimation of economic costs and benefits and on the assumption that transactions are carried out to the optimum ability of the organisation in drawing and enforcing proper contracts - the last being susceptible to ignorance of market-player behaviour, thus becoming the key determining element for the success of any decision.
From the perspective of industry, the Indian private sector is suitably placed to work closely with their defence public sector counterparts. Private industry strongly feels that so far its prowess has not been optimally harnessed for domestic defence requirements, while in the global front it has been successful in providing services to large multinational companies like Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, etc. While the benefits of defence outsourcing to the private sector is endless and includes import independence, technological self reliance, faster and cheaper supply of logistics, the areas where they can play a meaningful role is virtually exhaustive. However, not so long ago, the private sector’s role in defence was confined merely to providing raw materials, semi-finished products and parts and components to Ordnance Factories and Defence Public Sector Units. But, with the government allowing private participation including foreign direct investment, the private sector has been able to produce high-end defence products, demonstrating its effectiveness in translating its civil prowess into defence business. With the rising profile of Indian private industries on the global scene backed by competitiveness, quality standards and efficiency there is enough confidence among the private enterprises to delve into hardcore development and production of hi-tech defence equipment. To accommodate private industry, in recent years the government has initiated policy measures like for instance the Defence Procurement Policy, 2006 to boost greater private participation. But what is needed is that along with policy measures, there should be a concerted effort to encourage public private partnership (PPP) and greater outsourcing to the private sector. Some of the items that could be easily outsourced to the private sector include land systems, vehicles, engineering equipment, marine systems, aviation systems, arms and ammunitions, UAVs, surveillance systems, IT and communication radars and radio sets. Besides, private industry feels that the existing Defence Supply and Storage Network, vast Defence Estates, Armed Forces Medical Services and Defence Personnel Recruitment could be outsourced to private players for better management, speedy and quality services and for revenue generation. Similarly, the government should address the concern of the private players arising out of the discriminatory benefits enjoyed by the public sector in producing equipment the prototypes of which are developed by private players.
The Indian Army views outsourcing as a form of privatisation wherein some or all of its logistics function is performed by an outside organisation. There is a degree of suspicion on the part of the Army vis-à-vis outsourcing and this suspicion arises out of security of supply and timely availability of required quantity and quality. While feeling the need for greater outsourcing, at the same time it does not want to relinquish control over its dedicated logistics units. However, it identifies three broad areas for possible outsourcing: ‘system support’ related to maintenance and repair of equipment; ‘services’ linked to transportation, medicare and security; ‘contingency and competitive’ related to services and civil contracts, etc. In its proposed methodology of outsourcing, the army divides logistics support into three levels: strategic, operational, and tactical or direct support. On analysing three levels of logistics, the Army does not recommend outsourcing of tactical logistics as it forms the first and second line of support to troops and provides them confidence during operations. The Army feels that due to inhospitable terrain and war-like circumstances, private operators may find it difficult to do business in some cases. So the army suggests categorising all functions into core and non-core functions. While the core functions are to be retained in-house because of their criticality during military missions, the non-core functions, which are non-operational in nature, could be outsourced.
Outsourcing in the Indian Air Force (IAF) goes back to as early as 1940 and the experience so far has been mixed. A number of activities like security of IAF installations, repair, overhaul and upgradation of various weapons systems and equipment and refuelling operations at various IAF bases have been outsourced at varying proportions. Further outsourcing is contingent upon the suppliers' flexibility and willingness to take up additional tasks. The experience that the IAF has gained relates to poor quality of the supplies and the prolonged time for corrective measures which are not to its satisfaction. In case of obsolescence of products, the IAF found that the outsourced agencies find it commercially unviable because of the changing situations with respect to design, development and cost escalation over a long period, resulting in low availability of product upgrades. Besides, a limited vendor base escalates repair costs and greater concentration on high-end products by original equipment manufactures (OEM) creates problems for product upgradations. Similarly, the IAF found lack of accountability among private suppliers.
Based on its experience, the IAF wants to tread the outsourcing path cautiously. It feels that outsourcing creates critical dependencies that do not bode well during crisis situations, since legally private contractors could not be compelled to go to war zones. The core functions of air warfare like self-sufficiency of combat units, operation of combat aircraft and first line maintenance are not to be outsourced. However, the IAF is in the process of drawing up an action plan to pursue outsourcing in the years ahead, and has set an immediate target of fifty per cent, which would be increased depending upon the satisfaction level.
The Indian Navy, by decentralising financial powers, has been able to outsource many activities for the purpose of inducting modern technology and increasing levels of synergy and co-ordination. At present, these areas broadly include: operational requirements like ship refit and overhaul, ship engineering, and engine overhaul; technical support related to maintenance of equipment, building conservancy, IT, and dredging of channels; administrative support for ferry service, etc. The three areas which the Navy wants exclusive control over and out of the ambit of outsourcing are: weapons and sensors; networking and communication; and basic ship design. The Navy contends that these need heavy doses of Research and Development costs or need to be under its control for operational security reasons. It has identified outsourcing and private participation as means of greater indigenisation and self-reliance. Towards this end, it has set up institutional mechanisms, the Directorate of Indigenisation and Local Units at the Command level to encourage Indian Industry to enter into collaborations/partnerships with their foreign counterparts and thus ensure the supply of latest technology to the force.
At present, the Indian Navy faces certain difficulties in its outsourcing efforts. Most DPSUs that cater to the Navy’s requirements of building warships either lack facilities close to naval bases or do not possess adequate capacity to handle the workload. However, in recent years the government has been encouraging private player participation and the result is visible with Larsen and Toubro building a huge shipyard at Hazira. Also, the Navy wants a strong defence industrial base at major naval bases – Mumbai, Visakhapatnam, Kochi, Port Blair and Karwar – as a major prerequisite to serve the outsourced activities of the Navy more efficiently. Another problem facing the Navy is the absence of firm guidelines, leading to uncertainty regarding the procedures to be followed for execution.
While the seminar was successful in bringing to the fore the perspectives of various stakeholders, concerted follow-up action at higher levels is needed to proceed along this path. So far, outsourcing activities of the Armed Forces have been left to the individual Services who perform this important activity on their own in varying proportions depending on their convenience and needs. Among the three Services, the Navy is more outsource-oriented than the others and has institutional mechanisms to promote this. While the Army and Air Force could learn from the Navy’s experiences and practices, there is an urgent need for an overarching mechanism to guide this important aspect in all the three Services. In this regard, the Ministry of Defence could take a cue from its British counterpart in formulating a policy paper on outsourcing. The UK MoD Policy Paper on Defence Acquisition, released in 2001, has clearly laid out principles which, besides promoting Public Private Partnership (PPP) and Private Finance Initiatives (PFI), identify potential areas that could best be served by private parties. Under this policy, only when the PFI has been found to be ‘unworkable, inappropriate or uneconomic’, can the Ministry use its own capital funds. The Ministry has no “dogmatic preference for private over public or vice versa.” This British initiative has not only transferred the Ministry’s risk but has also benefited it from savings in capital investment. The PFI initiative has saved up to ‘forty per cent in forecast costs compared with other (read government initiated) forms of procurement’. A number of contracts awarded to private players, including some in strategic areas, are testimony to both the competency level and trust in handling strategic matters by the private sector. A similar exercise in India will not only benefit the country’s security establishment in terms of savings in time and costs but also help in realising self-sufficiency in ‘defence production and military technology’, the cherished long-term objective of the Government of India.
Defence Industry
Defence Economics & Industry
IDSA COMMENT
LTTE Air Strike Redefines Conflict
M. Mayilvaganan
March 30, 2007
The LTTE's air attack on the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Katunayake, adjoining the Katunayake International Airport (KIA), marks a new dimension in the three-decade-old conflict. The bombing raid by the Tamileelam Air Force (TAF), reportedly originating from Vanni, has not only sharpened the focus on the island's security but also on that of India. Besides, the bombing, which left three people killed and about 17 injured, has thrown open the question of how weak the Tigers really are even after the debacle they have recently suffered in the Eastern Province.
The LTTE's air attack on the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Katunayake, adjoining the Katunayake International Airport (KIA), marks a new dimension in the three-decade-old conflict. The bombing raid by the Tamileelam Air Force (TAF), reportedly originating from Vanni, has not only sharpened the focus on the island's security but also on that of India. Besides, the bombing, which left three people killed and about 17 injured, has thrown open the question of how weak the Tigers really are even after the debacle they have recently suffered in the Eastern Province. In the wake of the air attack, several questions have arisen. Why did the LTTE resort to an air attack? How significant is its air wing and what is its strength? Is the LTTE now in a position to attack any target in the island? If so, what are the most likely targets? What are the security implications of this latest development? And, is there a possibility of a similar attack on southern India?
The air attack was in clear violation of Sri Lankan airspace and of the tenets of international law. The aircraft used for the attack flew about 350 nautical miles at an average speed of 150 mph, carrying an ordnance load of 1,040 kilograms. There are many motives behind this first major aerial attack. The primary need for using Air Tigers at this stage was to counter and intimidate the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), at whose hands the LTTE has suffered immense damage over the past year in the North and East of the island. Though the international airport lies next to the Air Force base, the Tigers chose not to target it given the implications it would have in the international arena.
Though attacks and threats from the LTTE are not new, the use of aircraft underscores the Tigers' capabilities. The LTTE has not only demonstrated its ability to take on the Sri Lankan government but also in establishing a state structure with its own army, navy and air force. Though speculation is rife about the strength of the Air Tigers, so far the LTTE has not disclosed the type and number of light-wing aircraft in its possession. However, there are reports that say that the Tigers have two to five aircraft. The United States has confirmed that one of these aircraft is a Czech-built Zlin Z-143, while another could be a Swiss-built Pilatus PC 7 trainer.
The attack on the air base seems to have boosted the LTTE's confidence to take on and even subjugate the Sri Lankan Air Force. Ilanthiraiyan, military spokesperson of the Tigers, stated that Sri Lankan military installations would be the main targets of any such attacks in the future. Second on the list would be commercial establishments in Colombo and in southern Sri Lanka. Thirdly, the Tigers could use their air wing to deter the Sri Lankan Government in general by targeting strategic national buildings. Besides, these aircraft would come in handy during emergencies to move supplies from other bases or evacuate critically wounded cadres for treatment and safety.
The LTTE's acquisition of aircraft seems to have upset the balance of power in Sri Lanka. It has once again brought in a sense of insecurity among the common people and has shaken the entire island. Sri Lankan authorities, who have been seriously concerned about the implications of the LTTE's success in acquiring an air capability, have at present confined their reaction to bringing the matter to the notice of the international community and India in particular. The immediate need of the Sri Lankan government is the stepping up of security measures, especially for strategically important places. There is also a need to exercise restraint in using its air force, given that it could result in further escalation of the air campaign by the Air Tigers.
The Tigers' air attack has also forced India to devote greater attention to the unfolding events in Sri Lanka. For, it squarely raises the question of the scale of, and threat from, the LTTE presence across the Palk Strait. While analysts speculate about the possibility of the LTTE using aircraft against India, especially to target nuclear facilities in South India like Kalpakkam and Kudankulam, such a possibility appears remote. The Tigers are aware that they lost sympathy and support in Tamil Nadu after their role in Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, and it is unlikely that they would further antagonize India in general and Tamil public opinion in particular. However, if India were to give direct military assistance to the Sri Lankan government or introduce troops into the island in order to stymie the LTTE's cause, the Tigers could feel compelled to use air power against Indian naval and commercial craft.
Finally, although the violence has been constantly escalating by the day, the LTTE's aerial attack has brought about a perceptible change in the nature of the conflict in Sri Lanka. The LTTE has gained considerable psychological strength and has demonstrated its resolve and resilience in the face of recent setbacks. And its use of aircraft has added the aerial dimension to a conflict that has hitherto been limited to land and sea. At a stroke the attack has starkly brought to light the continuing vulnerability of the Sri Lankan government and its infrastructure as well as of the Sinhala population to continued attacks by the LTTE. The attack also underscores the vulnerability of southern India. New Delhi needs to gear up its security, surveillance and intelligence apparatuses to cater for this grave threat.
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Sri Lanka
South Asia
IDSA COMMENT
The Indian Defence Budget 2007-08
Laxman Kumar Behera
March 09, 2007
On February 28, 2007, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the Union Budget for the fiscal Year 2007-08 (April 1, 2007 - March 31, 2008). Out of a total budgeted expenditure of Rs. 6,80,521 crore, Rs. 96,000 crore was earmarked for national Defence, which includes allocations to the three Services - Army, Navy and Air Force - Defence Ordnance Factories, and the Defence Research and Development Organisation. This is besides the allocation of Rs. 16, 695.83 crore for Defence Civil Estimates, including Rs. 14,649 crore for Defence Pensions.
On February 28, 2007, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the Union Budget for the fiscal Year 2007-08 (April 1, 2007 - March 31, 2008). Out of a total budgeted expenditure of Rs. 6,80,521 crore, Rs. 96,000 crore was earmarked for national Defence, which includes allocations to the three Services - Army, Navy and Air Force - Defence Ordnance Factories, and the Defence Research and Development Organisation. This is besides the allocation of Rs. 16, 695.83 crore for Defence Civil Estimates, including Rs. 14,649 crore for Defence Pensions. Adding Defence Civil Estimates to the Defence budget, the total Indian military budget now stands at Rs. 1,12,695.8 crore. However, by convention, the Civil Estimates are not included in the calculations of the Defence budget in India.
In nominal terms, the Defence budget of Rs. 96,000 crore is an increase of 7.87 per cent over the budget estimates (Rs. 89,000 crore), and 11.63 per cent over the revised budget (Rs. 86,000 crore) for the year 2006-07. There is thus an immediate net loss of Rs. 3,000 crore (3.4 per cent of the original budget) to the Defence establishment, owing to the Services' inability to spend funds meant for capital expenditure during the previous financial year. The Services' inability to spend funds has probably cost them another Rs. 4,000 crore in the new budget, which could have taken the new budget to the figure of Rs. 100,000 crore. In the new budget, revenue expenditure accounts for 56.3 per cent (Rs. 54,078 crore), and capital expenditure accounts for 43.7 per cent (Rs. 41,922 crore) of the total budget. While the revenue budget has declined by 0.58 percentage points, that of capital expenditure has increased by 1.58 percentage points over the budgeted estimates for the previous year. Compared to the revised estimates for 2006-07, in the latest allocations, the share of revenue expenditure has decreased by 3.6 percentage points while that for capital expenditure has gone up by the same percentage points.
The recent trend of declining revenue allocations and rising capital allocations can be traced back to 2004-05, when the capital budget was suddenly increased by nearly one and a half times, while the revenue budget was cut by nearly 14 percentage points. In the revenue side of the budget, pay and allowances, including those of personnel, civilians and reservists account for the second largest expenditure (after Stores which receives Rs. 25,668.22 crore), at Rs. 21,020.81 crore, which is nearly 40 per cent of the revenue budget and 22 per cent of the total Defence budget. When the recommendations of the 6th Pay Commission get implemented, the revenue budget will inflate significantly. The 5th Pay Commission inflated the revenue budget by nearly 16 per cent. A similar situation this time will raise the revenue budget by at least eight to nine thousand crore, because of increases in just Pay and Allowances.
On the capital side, this year's allocations for procurement purposes stands at nearly Rs. 27,000 crore, 3000 crore more than was allotted in the previous year. Though the major portion of the procurement budget will go towards meeting 'committed liabilities', the remainder could be utilised by the Services for a new set of modernisation programmes.
Service wise, the Army has the lead with a budget of Rs. 45,684.51 crore (47.59 per cent of total budget), followed by the Air Force at Rs. 27,021.74 crore (28.15 per cent) and the Navy bringing up the rear at Rs. 17,529.44 crores (18.25 per cent). Compared to the budgeted estimates for 2006-07, the Army's share has gone up by 0.1 percentage point, while those for the Air force and Navy have gone up by 0.2 percentage points each. The allocation for Defence Research and Development has gone up by Rs. 433.49 crore, and it now stands at Rs. 5887.22 crore, representing 6.13 per cent of the total budget. Though the present allocations reinforce the fact that the Indian military is Army-centric, yet, some components of the Army budget - National Cadet Corps (NCC) and Military Farms - need a revision in the budget making process to better reflect their true character and for easy understanding. Similarly, the Coast Guard and Jammu & Kashmir Light Infantry (JAKLI) are also excluded from the defence budget. This is done for the purpose of under-valuation, but it is unnecessary given that information in this regard is easily available in the public domain.
The Defence budget for 2007-08 is only 2.10 per cent of the expected GDP for the coming fiscal year, as against 2.17 per cent in the previous year. In the last four fiscal years since 2004-05, Defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP has been continuously declining. Similarly, Defence expenditure as a percentage of total Central government expenditure has this time around come down to 14.11 per cent from 14.79 per cent in the previous year. In the last four years, there has been a more than two percentage point decline on this front. These declining trends are in contrast to the commitment made by the Prime Minister to push the Defence budget towards the three per cent of GDP mark in the backdrop of strong economic growth. In nominal terms, though the economy is all set to grow by more than 45 per cent between 2004-05 and 2007-08, the Defence budget has actually gone up by only 26 per cent in the same period.
This mismatch between the growth of the economy and that of defence allocations raises the question as to whether it is the government that is not willing to provide sufficient funds to the armed forces, or whether the Armed Forces are unable to utilise allotted funds in a timely manner. A perusal of the Defence Services Estimates (DSE) reveals that the Armed Forces have surrendered nearly Rs, 40,000 crore in the past decade, forgetting the consequences of two important underlying principles of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM Act): each rupee surrendered from the present budget is one rupee lost in the next budget; and the more that is spent from the present budget, the more will be allotted in the next budget. As the Services' record of spending allotted funds is not displaying any improvement, the Ministry of Finance did not grant more funds, possibly because of the understanding that the surrendered funds could have earned better returns if they had been allocated for other productive purposes. Perhaps, this aspect is the most crucial factor that justifies the mismatch between robust economic growth and a relatively lower growth in the defence budget. In this regard, the demand for higher allocations from GDP or Central Government expenditure has to be compatible with the improved spending habits of the Services, which in turn depends on rational decision-making. At present, most of decisions pertaining to equipment or platforms do not conform to the simple economic principle of competition, leading to compromise on time, cost and quality. As long as these aspects are not taken care of, no amount of increased allocation would be adequate, considering that allotted funds will be used at a sub-optimal level
India, Defence Budget
Defence Economics & Industry
IDSA COMMENT
Indo-US Business Relations: Setting new records
Cherian Samuel
March 08, 2007
With the passage of a year since the visit of President George W. Bush to India, it is the business communities of the two countries that have benefited the most from the momentum created by the upsurge in Indo-US relations. While two-way trade and investment had been growing at a steady clip, the announcement and subsequent passage of the Bill on Co-operation in Civil Nuclear Energy, intended to remove the last vestiges of the adversarial relations between the two countries, have taken business relations to a new level.
With the passage of a year since the visit of President George W. Bush to India, it is the business communities of the two countries that have benefited the most from the momentum created by the upsurge in Indo-US relations. While two-way trade and investment had been growing at a steady clip, the announcement and subsequent passage of the Bill on Co-operation in Civil Nuclear Energy, intended to remove the last vestiges of the adversarial relations between the two countries, have taken business relations to a new level.
This was best manifested by US FDI investment in India during the current financial year, which virtually doubled over the previous year, as also by the November 2006 visit to India of the largest ever business delegation from the United States to any country thus far. A third set of figures that has relevance in this regard is the half a million US visas issued to Indians in 2006 (expected to go up to 800,000 this year), and between 150,000 to 200,000 US nationals, mainly business visitors, coming to India in the same year.
Given the opportunities for business that exist in both countries, it is not surprising that business organizations such as the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the US-India Business Council (USIBC) were at the forefront of lobbying for the passage of the Bill in Congress. They, along with the two governments, have also been acting as facilitators for the business communities in the two countries to look for trade and investment opportunities. The November trade delegation, for instance, was led by US Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Frank Lavin, and more than half of the 200-odd companies represented in the delegation were visiting India for the first time. US business interest in India is not just limited to the big multi-national companies; business delegations are expected from the various states in 2007, indicating interest on the part of small and medium companies to engage in business in India and to collaborate with their Indian counterparts. While Alabama has already sent two trade delegations to India in 2007, trade delegations from many other states are expected over the next few months. US states are also actively scouting for investments by Indian companies. For instance, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority has set up a field office in Bangalore in 2004 and the State of Maryland followed suit shortly thereafter. Such initiatives have paid off with nearly 16 Indian companies, mostly information technology firms like Infosys and Sify, setting up office in Fairfax county.
The cumulative value of US exports to India crossed US $10 billion in 2006 while India's trade with the United States has also shown a comparable increase, with exports to the United States shooting up from $15 billion in 2004 to $22 billion in 2006. The two countries have set a target of doubling bilateral trade to $50 billion in three years time. The synergies between the two economies is exemplified by the fact that the imbalance in merchandise trade in favour of India is offset by surpluses in services trade favouring the US.
American businesses' new-found interest in India is also partly driven by their awareness of the attempts of their government to moderate the rate of investment by US businesses in China, and reduce the huge trade deficit between those two countries. The possibilities for increased friction between China and the United States and a resultant adverse business climate was alluded to by Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath when he noted at a public interaction with visiting US Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez that there was a difference between doing business for the sake of doing business, and doing business with friends.
The impact of friendly relations on the business climate is also brought out by the lack of any significant opposition to the many mergers and acquisitions carried out by Indian companies in the US in the recent past, in stark contrast to vehement opposition raised against Chinese and Middle Eastern companies. Indian companies are estimated to have carried out M&A deals of more than $1 billion in the US in 2006. According to reports, including Hindalco's acquisition of US-Canadian steel major Novelis for $6 billion in February, Indian companies have already announced M&A deals worth $32 billion for 2007, many of them being with US companies. With the Planning Commission estimating that $350 billion (Rs 15,61,000 crores) worth of investment is required over the next three years to sustain the current growth rate of 8 per cent, the opportunities for US companies and institutional investors are endless.
The Indian diaspora in the United States has also played an important part in lubricating the wheels of business between the two countries. According to a recent study, between 1995 and 2005, Indian Americans founded more start-ups in Silicon Valley than migrants from China, the United Kingdom, Japan and Taiwan combined. Just as the Indian workforce in US companies played an important part in the eighties and nineties in channelling investment into Bangalore and paving the way for India's IT revolution, Indian entrepreneurs are now benefiting from the business expertise of the Silicon Valley pioneers, with venture capital firms investing $508 million in 92 start-ups in India in 2006. Their knowledge and familiarity with both Indian and US business practices make it easier for both Indian and American businesses to spread their wings in either country. The field offices of both Fairfax County and Maryland, for instance, are headed by Indian Americans.
The crucial combination of opportunities and facilitators, and the fortunate confluence of history and circumstance, has made it that much more easier for the governments of the two countries to walk the business talk.
India, India-US Relations, Economic Relations, United States of America (USA)
Nuclear and Arms Control
IDSA COMMENT
India and Russia Need to Deepen Economic Relations
Nivedita Das Kundu
March 07, 2007
The recent meeting of the Indo-Russian Business Co-operation Council and the Trade and Investment Forum in New Delhi was significant, in that it took place after the recent summit-level talks between the two countries. This symbolises the fact that both countries assign considerable value to increasing bilateral trade and economic co-operation.
The recent meeting of the Indo-Russian Business Co-operation Council and the Trade and Investment Forum in New Delhi was significant, in that it took place after the recent summit-level talks between the two countries. This symbolises the fact that both countries assign considerable value to increasing bilateral trade and economic co-operation.
Fresh impetus was provided to the strategic partnership between India and Russia during President Putin's recent visit to India. His visit reinforced the interests of both states in maintaining their traditionally close and friendly relationship. But the question that still remains is, whether a similar impetus was provided to boost trade and economic co-operation between the two countries.
Bilateral trade between Russia and India was severely affected due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The break-up of the USSR in 1991 and India's economic liberalisation about the same time resulted in a drastic reduction in bilateral trade and economic co-operation. At present, the two economies display certain interesting similarities. Both economies are resurging and at the same time diversifying. They have achieved significant rates of economic growth over the last few years - seven per cent in the case of India and about 6.9 per cent in the case of Russia. This robust growth provides a strong base for expanding business contacts and promoting new projects.
An analysis of bilateral trade shows that India's main exports to Russia are not growing at a consistent rate over the past few years, while Indian imports from Russia have remained almost static over the last decade and a half. There is a need to address specific areas to ensure greater trade flows and to reach the target set by the two governments of US $10 billion in total trade by 2010.
The greatest hindrance to trade between India and Russia is the lack of trade routes. There is need to optimise the shipping route because, until a viable and shorter route for trade is worked out, higher growth rates in trade of goods will continue to be hampered. The agreement on the new India-Russia Transport corridor may help in reducing transport costs. The present route, which passes through the Suez Canal and enters the Russian port of St. Petersburg via Kotka (Finland) and Rotterdam (Netherlands), is long and time consuming. The new route - Mumbai-Bandar Abbas-Astrakhan - would comprise of sea and land links across India, Iran and Russia and will shorten travel time by as much as ten days. The North-South Corridor thus needs greater attention from both countries.
Despite the interest shown by both sides to increase bilateral flow of goods and services, there are still some trade barriers, non-tariff barriers for instance, that continue to plague bilateral trade. These too need to be identified and addressed, since they hinder market access.
Another issue that needs to be addressed seriously pertains to the remaining funds under the Rupee-Rouble debt agreement. Between 1953 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, bilateral trade was conducted through a specific system of trade and payment called the Rupee trade system based on annual plans. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Indian and Russian governments renegotiated the entire trading arrangement. After several rounds of discussions, an agreement was reached in 1993, under which rouble credit was denominated in Rupees and a repayment schedule was drawn up. The agreement provided for an annual repayment of about US $1 billion equivalent in Rupee to Russia over a period of 12 years starting from 1994, with smaller amounts for a further period of 33 years. The Rupee debt funds were to be used by the Russian side to import goods and trade related services from India. Since then, bilateral trade has been based on payments in freely convertible currencies. All Russian exports to India follow the new system. But in the last decade, about two-thirds of Indian exports were financed through the renegotiated rupee-debt repayment mechanism.
India and Russia also need to look at other relevant issues including the expansion of inter-banking co-operation and easing of visa regulations for Indian professionals for short as well as longer periods, including business travel. For investment purposes, at present the greatest promise lies in joint collaboration in the area of energy. Russia has the energy potential to satisfy India's growing energy needs. While public sector energy companies from India have already made large investments in Russia, private sector companies too now need to look at investments in downstream petroleum units in Russia in return for a stake in petroleum refineries there.
Despite economic policy changes in both countries, the Indo-Russian economic relationship is still dominated by defence/public sector transactions. The military industrial complex (MIC) still stands at the core of strong Indo-Russian economic linkages. India is further expected to continue importing defence equipment from Russia in the coming years.
Macro-economic stability and growth in the two economies continued mainly because of their intensive expansion of internal consumer and investment demand. Overall, the economic policies of both countries aimed at supporting macroeconomic equilibrium and stimulating growth. Today, Russia's ambition seems to be not just limited to becoming a prime supplier of energy to the world market but to eventually re-emerge as a great economic power using petrodollars. Similarly, today's India has a lot to offer to Russia. Sectors in which India has shown high export growth over the last few years are information and communication technology, professional services such as medical health (specifically dental), engineering, travel and tourism, as well as certain financial services. Russia, on the other hand, has demonstrated expertise in, apart from the energy sector, research and development in scientific and technological sectors, transport services, etc. The two countries could also consider building a strong platform for sharing views on innovation and research and development in the above mentioned areas so as to learn and benefit from each other's competence. Both countries could also roll out new initiatives to boost bilateral economic co-operation.
Russia's Economic Report of December 2006 states that it has been experiencing severe shortages of skilled labour due to demographic decline. This has had an adverse effect on its economic growth. In this context, it could be of mutual interest if professionals from India were to be hired to meet Russian requirements. This idea was discussed during Putin's January 2007 visit as well as during the recent visit of Russia's Minister of Economic Development & Trade. Now Russia is looking for alternatives in the form of expatriate labour from Central Asia and the Caucasus, mainly because of the latter's familiarity with and knowledge of the Russian language. If Indian job seekers were to learn the Russian language, it would boost employment opportunities for them in Russia. Chinese labourers have already started finding a foothold in Russia's Far East, and they might very soon spread to other parts of Russia as well. There is no doubt that Russia will prefer Indians rather than Chinese in this regard.
India and Russia have to exploit their comparative advantages in a globalising world if they wish to expand bilateral trade and deepen economic co-operation. This is imperative to add greater ballast to their strategic partnership in the 21st century.
India, Russia, Economic Relations, India-Russia Relations
Europe and Eurasia
IDSA COMMENT
Naxalites resolve to focus on urban areas
Nihar R. Nayak
March 06, 2007
In response to the government-organised National Naxalite Co-ordination Committee meeting held in December 2006 at Bhubaneswar, Naxalites have enunciated their counter-strategy. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), which accounts for 98 per cent of left-wing extremist violence in India, decided to intensify the people's war by increasing its mass base across the country and strengthening its armed cadres. The decision, taken at a leadership conclave held somewhere in the forests along the Jharkand-Orissa border sometime in January or February 2007, was unanimous.
In response to the government-organised National Naxalite Co-ordination Committee meeting held in December 2006 at Bhubaneswar, Naxalites have enunciated their counter-strategy. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), which accounts for 98 per cent of left-wing extremist violence in India, decided to intensify the people's war by increasing its mass base across the country and strengthening its armed cadres. The decision, taken at a leadership conclave held somewhere in the forests along the Jharkand-Orissa border sometime in January or February 2007, was unanimous. The 9th Unity Congress was attended by about one hundred CPI-Maoist leaders from sixteen Indian states, three Nepalese Maoists, and one Maoist activist each from Bangladesh and the Philippines. The successful convening of the congress, despite heavy security arrangements and intelligence networks on the Jharkand-Orissa border, brings into question the government's counterinsurgency efforts and intelligence efficiency.
The Naxalite congress resolved to advance the people's war throughout India by strengthening the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the military wing of the CPI-Maoist, and mobilising more cadres through militant mass movements against the neo-liberal policies of globalisation, liberalisation, and privatisation. The conclave also decided to expand the armed struggle from 'guerrilla war' to 'urban and mobile warfare', focusing on industrial areas. The conclave also exhorted Naxalite cadres to use every possible means to free detained activists, including through jailbreaks.
A particularly noteworthy development at the conclave was reaffirmation of faith in agrarian revolution as the axis of, and protracted people's war as the path for, the new democratic revolution. This had first come on the agenda with the Naxalbari upsurge in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The new context for reaffirming the nearly four-decades-old agenda is the move towards setting up Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and conversion of farmlands into industrial zones. As many as 250 proposals to create SEZs in 21 states are awaiting approval from various state governments, and decisions on these are being delayed mainly due to disputes over the compensation package and acquisition of agricultural land without a suitable relief and rehabilitation package. Recently, Naxalites achieved great success in increasing their support base and reviving the movement by opposing Nandigram and Singur SEZs in West Bengal. They plan to use resistance to the SEZ phenomenon as a means to expand their presence to new areas.
The conclave also adopted the tactics of the Naxals' Nepalese counterparts, that of extending unconditional support to minorities and their demands. Muppala Lakshman Rao alias Ganapathi, who has been re-elected general secretary, declared:
"We should support 'just struggles' of nationalities and sub-nationalities that demand a separate state for their development. Kashmiris and various nationalities of the North-East, such as the Assamese, Nagas, Manipuris and Tripuris, have long been waging an armed struggle against the Indian Government for their right to self-determination, including the right to secede from the so-called Union of India."
Maoists in Nepal had declared eight minority autonomous regions during their armed struggle phase and garnered immense support from these areas. Similarly, the CPI-Maoist has been supporting demands for separate states like Telengana (in Andhra Pradesh), Vidarbha (in Maharashtra), and Kosala (in Orissa). The Maoists believe that small states cannot counter their movement, which would eventually would help them set up a communist state in the subcontinent.
The congress decided to form organisations such as 'Committee to Release Prisoners', comprising intellectuals, democracy lovers, and members of the families of imprisoned comrades. "Efforts are already underway," the general secretary said. According to the Credential Committee report of the Unity Congress, six top activists in Andhra Pradesh and 26 in Tamil Nadu are detained under POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act), while 16 in Karnataka and about 25 in north Chhattisgarh have been languishing in jail. This resolution was earlier passed in the third CCOMPOSA (Co-ordination Committee of Maoist Parties and Organisations of South Asia) meeting in 2004. Since then India has experienced frequent attacks on jails, as seen in Jehanabad (Bihar), Koraput (Orissa) and R. Udayagiri jail (Gajapati district, Orissa).
The main purpose of the latest Maoist conclave was to decide upon setting up base areas in new regions to highlight current issues like forcible displacement caused by Special Economic Zones, industrialisation, infrastructure development projects, caste oppression, and Hindu fascism. The outfit also wanted to restructure itself because of fear that the arrests of Sobha, a member of the central committee, in Orissa in November 2006 and technical committee members from Bhopal, Rourkela and Jharkhand in January 2007 might have led to leaking of its vital secrets to the security agencies. The conclave was also intended to evaluate the Naxalites' performance and assess prospects for qualitative development such as turning the guerrilla war into mobile war and guerrilla zones into base areas. Another objective was to explore new tactics amidst the changes taking place in the agrarian situation, especially in Punjab within the semi-feudal framework, and its impact on the Naxalite tactics. The recent success of the Nepalese Maoists seems to have encouraged the Maoist leaders in India to take to violent ways. One media report indicated that a joint training camp of the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam), Nepalese Maoists and Indian Maoists has been organised on the India-Nepal border.
The Home Ministry's assessment of Naxal violence in the country, dated February 12, 2007 is that, except for Chhattisgarh, violence elsewhere in the country was well under control. The exception was attributed to the Naxalite attempt to derail the Salwa Judum movement in Chhattisgarh. Earlier on December 29, Union Home Secretary, V.K. Duggal had said that Naxalite violence had declined. The violence may have declined, though not the movement. The Maoists do not abruptly launch into 'armed struggle' or violence, but are known to go for gradual consolidation, including a preliminary study of local social, economic and political conditions and the vulnerabilities of particular populations. They prefer to maintain a low profile in adverse conditions. They also keep violence low in border regions, which will keep away police attention and facilitate intra-state movement.
Participation of the Nepalese Maoists in the Congress indicates that there is a great degree of co-ordination between the CPN-Maoist and their Indian counterparts. Despite signing the peace agreement with the Seven Party Alliance, it seems the Nepalese Maoists have not deviated from their objective of setting up a communist State in Nepal. In fact, members of the CPN-Maoist have attended meetings organised by the CCOMPOSA and Indian Maoists. The US has been alleging that the Nepalese Maoists were buying antiquated, home-made weapons in Bihar in order to hand them over to UN inspectors while hiding their own more sophisticated weapons. There are also reports in the local press that the Maoists have returned only looted arms. On February 23, 2007 there were reports in the media that hundreds of former Nepalese Maoist armed cadres stormed out of a camp where they had been confined under a peace deal, citing lack of food and government failure to provide materials for proper shelter. Its strong linkages to Indian Maoists and commitment to the armed struggle further reflects in the outfit's recent arms procurement activities. Indian Army intelligence is reported to have proved a close connection between the Nepalese Maoists and the terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The arrest and subsequent interrogation of the Nepalese Maoist, Pasang Lama, on Indian territory has substantiated reports of this link.
Naxalites follow flexible tactics. If the situation warrants it, they confine the movement at the level of political mobilisation, highlight local issues through front organisations and organise meetings in strongholds. Instead of focusing only on the violent aspects of the movement, the government should monitor the activities of the front organisations as well. In addition, there is a need to strengthen the capabilities of the local police in intelligence collection, and provide them special training as well as socio-economic guarantee to the field staff in order to make them more effective.
The Presidential Draft Decision at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) decided on March 23, 2007 to appoint a co-ordinator each to preside over the discussions on three core issues on the agenda - nuclear disarmament, prevention of arms race in outer space (PAROS) and negative nuclear security guarantee. At the same time, the Presidential Draft Decision also named Ambassador Carlo Trezza of Italy as the co-ordinator to preside over negotiations on the fourth core issue - a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty.
The Presidential Draft Decision at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) decided on March 23, 2007 to appoint a co-ordinator each to preside over the discussions on three core issues on the agenda - nuclear disarmament, prevention of arms race in outer space (PAROS) and negative nuclear security guarantee. At the same time, the Presidential Draft Decision also named Ambassador Carlo Trezza of Italy as the co-ordinator to preside over negotiations on the fourth core issue - a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. It is the latter decision that has however drawn greater attention than the other three issues related to disarmament. Why?
The greater focus of attention at the CD on FMCT came at a time when the preparatory consultations for the 2010 NPT Review Conference was around the corner beginning April 30, 2007. The last NPT Review Conference (RevCon) took place in May 2005 to salvage the Treaty itself in the wake of disclosures about the hidden nuclear ambitions and acts of NPT-defined non-nuclear weapon states including Libya and North Korea. The loopholes in the Treaty were exposed by the actions of states, like Iran for instance, which deliberately employed or engaged extensive networks of non-state actors to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and components. Above all, the international nuclear non-proliferation regime faced irreparable damage in the hands of the Pakistan-based A. Q. Khan network.
The mutually competing interests of NPT members did not allow any substantive outcome at the last NPT RevCon, especially with regard to the prevention of deviations by member states from commitments related to its so-called twin pillars - non-proliferation and disarmament. The treaty failed to address challenges related to the transfer of nuclear technology, which is dual-use in nature: it can legitimately be used by non-nuclear weapon states under the NPT for peaceful energy purposes, while at the same time it can also be diverted to develop weapons.
And just like the continuity in non-proliferation problems, the future of disarmament also remains uncertain. This is mainly because of the inherent weakness in prevailing NPT provisions, which do not talk of a time-bound action plan for nuclear disarmament by Treaty-defined nuclear weapon states. Of course, the United States and Russia have been constantly projecting the view that they have ceased their arms race and are working towards disarmament by signing bilateral strategic arms reduction treaties. But these bilateral treaties have been subject to criticism that they are neither adequately transparent nor do they guarantee irreversibility. One particular criticism is that the dismantling of nuclear warheads by the United States and Russia does not provide enough assurance that the fissile material contained in them would not be re-used or that the warheads themselves would not be redeployed in future.
The reality is that thousands of nuclear warheads exist in the arsenals of major nuclear weapon states and more than 30 countries remain part of military alliances that extend the nuclear umbrella over them. Many European countries and Japan fall into this category of states that benefit from America's extended deterrence. Trends available on China's force modernisation, continuing replenishment of nuclear armaments by Russia and France, US decisions on the reliable warhead replacement programme and British resolve to ensure the strategic relevance of nuclear weapons for future decades, India's willingness to build a credible minimum deterrent, Pakistan's continued stockpiling of nuclear weapons, and Israel's nuclear capability brushed under the carpet from public glare - all indicate that nuclear disarmament has a daunting future ahead. However, whatever part measures are taken would go towards shaping a better future. In this context, how does the FMCT fit into the overall scheme of disarmament?
A Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty is all about halting the production of fissile material for weapons. Interestingly, the United States has been showing considerable interest over the last couple of years in negotiations and to bring the issue towards some conclusive end. So much so that in its White Paper on FMCT presented at the CD on May 19, 2006, the US expressed the view that "pending the conclusion of a Cutoff Treaty and the Treaty's entry into force, all states should declare publicly and observe a moratorium on the production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons." In other words, pending conclusion of an FMCT, the US wants all countries to declare a unilateral moratorium on the production of fissile material.
There is in fact an already existing self-declared moratorium of fissile material production declared by the US, Russia, Britain and France. Of course, they have produced enough fissile material for their present and possible future requirements. By signing an FMCT, these countries would have nothing to sacrifice, while at the same time they would gain by portraying their action as a movement towards disarmament in accordance with their NPT commitment. It is quite plausible that the United States, by showcasing its renewed interest in the FMCT, wishes to re-establish its credibility by engaging in multilateralism. If the US were to succeed in inducing and mobilising China to work towards a multilateral treaty in this regard, negotiations on the FMCT is likely to conclude before the NPT RevCon in 2010.
There has, however, been speculation that the intensified American effort on FMCT negotiations could be intended to target China, India and Pakistan. It has been pointed out that China successfully lobbied for omitting any reference to a fissile material production moratorium in the final document of the NPT RevCon in 2000. And in order to reduce American pressure on it to commit to an FMCT, China has been maintaining that PAROS and FMCT negotiations require equal attention at the Conference on Disarmament. Jenni Rissanen, in a December 2006 article published in Disarmament Diplomacy, concluded that "faced with the possibility that missile defences could undermine" its deterrent China "may want to hold open the option of continuing - or more probably, resuming - fissile material production in the future."
However, China may not continue to insist on equal treatment for PAROS and FMCT given its own pursuit of space weaponry. It has already conducted a successful anti-satellite missile test. Aware of the fact that only the US and Russia possess such a capability and that the US is unlikely to compromise on its military interests in space, Beijing may have realised that there is no point in emphasising the linkage between the two issues beyond a point. On the other hand, given its own fissile stock, presumably lesser than that of the US and of Russia though manifold in size compared with that of India, China may agree to join hands on an FMCT that would ultimately place a cap on India's fissile material production as well.
Against this backdrop, before articulating its position on the FMCT, India needs to conduct a review of its own credible minimum deterrent requirements. Before the major nuclear weapon states start tightening the noose around India, New Delhi should do the necessary homework in terms of calculating its overall requirements of fissile material for both military and civilian purposes. At the same time, it also has to evolve a calibrated strategy to ensure that its national interests are safeguarded even as it intensifies its pace of engagement and integration with the international economic, political and security system
From all accounts it appears that the much talked about India-US nuclear deal is slowly but surely unravelling. This should not come as a surprise. Right from the beginning when the US secretary of State declared her country's intention to help India become a major power, we should have become alert since it is not very often that one major or superpower will help another to become a possible contender in the future. There were many other indications as well in terms of opposition to the deal. The US non-proliferation lobby vehemently opposed it.
From all accounts it appears that the much talked about India-US nuclear deal is slowly but surely unravelling. This should not come as a surprise. Right from the beginning when the US secretary of State declared her country's intention to help India become a major power, we should have become alert since it is not very often that one major or superpower will help another to become a possible contender in the future. There were many other indications as well in terms of opposition to the deal. The US non-proliferation lobby vehemently opposed it. Both Democrats and Republicans only very reluctantly agreed to approve it and that too after much wrangling and very many amendments, although all the proposed amendments were mercifully not incorporated. The EU and NSG were also opposed to the deal as they perhaps saw themselves being bulldozed into relaxing rules for a new entrant at the behest of the US and more importantly since it was clear that America was pursuing its own national interests. China quietly opposed it but patiently watched the developments with hints of how it could also offer similar assistance to Pakistan.
Within India, communists and other liberal leftists opposed the deal as they saw it as a sell out to the forces of imperialism. Indian scientists let it be known that they were extremely unhappy about one major likely implication and expressly said that India could not sign away its sovereign right to test in the future should a contingency necessitate our having to do so. Finally, the BJP, which had worked very hard to convince the US of India's security concerns through the seemingly interminable rounds of Strobe Talbot-Jaswant Singh talks, also joined the Communists in terming the deal a sell out as it was not in favour of ever giving up the option to test in the future even if the said option was not exercised for a century.
India was, is, and shall always remain a very reluctant nuclear power. No political party, definitely not the Congress-led UPA, would ever go seriously beyond keeping the options open in developing a real 'minimum effective nuclear deterrent' or whatever else one may wish to call it. India's sporadic attempts at further developing its strategic missile capability is proof enough of such a weak-kneed approach. It seems India saw the US offer of a deal in 2005 as a rare opportunity for it to achieve at least three of its strategic objectives without having to make too many substantive commitments or sacrifices or take bold steps. India perhaps thought that it could quickly join the exalted club without paying the membership fee in terms of expenditure on nuclear weapons R&D, gain access to nuclear power technology, and overcome the refusal of the NSG to treat India as a legitimate customer for new technologies. Some optimists even went to the extent of dreaming up a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The fiasco of our nominee's withdrawal even before the contest for the UN Secretary General's post should have given us ample evidence of the reality of where India's actual position is in the global scheme of things.
What is also surprising is the eagerness with which India so easily agreed to separate parts of its civilian and military nuclear establishment and declare the former for international inspection. The US had in effect already attained its longstanding objective of getting India to 'cap and roll back' its weapons programme since it now seems clear that the US would not want India to reprocess its spent fuel nor do any vigorous research in nuclear technology.
Another important facet of this subject that has been pushed under the carpet is the problem of nuclear safety, reliability, cost of construction and waste disposal. The common man is perplexed to find that in all these long winding discussions there is no mention of these vital issues although just a few years ago every one was dubbing nuclear power as very expensive and unsafe if not downright dangerous. France, a long time user of nuclear power, has decided to scale back its nuclear power generation. The US, which is the main actor in nuclear power industry, has not constructed a new nuclear power reactor over the past two decades. Why then is the US so keen that India takes the nuclear route to meet its burgeoning energy needs? One obvious link is the vested commercial interests of the US nuclear power reactor lobby to sell equipment and technology to India and earn huge profits. The other less obvious reason could very well be American oil interests. What the US oil giants essentially want is for the global oil economy to continue to function exactly as it has been for the better part of the last century - under American control. By firmly getting India set on the nuclear power route, the US could ensure that New Delhi became dependent for new technology, stopped its own R&D efforts and continued to use ever increasing quantities of oil since even with all the new civilian nuclear power stations working to their capacity India would still require oil to meet its energy needs. US pressure on India not to go ahead with the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is further evidence that Washington wishes to keep India tied down to traditional sources of energy supplies where US interests rule supreme.
The so-called 'win-win' deal will also give the US increased leverage to arm twist India in its foreign and economic policy options. But if India decides to remain aloof from these overtures then it retains its options and flexibility. Going by the example of China, if India concentrates solely on strengthening its economy then a day is not far when the US and other countries will have to take notice of India's true power. As it stands, the proposed civilian nuclear deal may prove to be a major impediment to India's aspirations.
It is worth considering the recent stance taken by small players like North Korea, Iran and Venezuela when they deal with US pressure. None has succumbed to America's strong-arm tactics, and Hugo Chavez has in fact upped the ante by withdrawing his country from the IMF and World Bank while Iran continues with uranium enrichment. What these show is that although the US undoubtedly continues to be the sole superpower, its capacity to influence the actions of even small countries is extremely limited and getting further reduced as it goes on blundering its way into Iraq.
What then can India do? India could well start by simply slowing down the discussions with the US, while simultaneously building bridges with Russia, the EU, Japan, Iran and other oil producing countries in improving access to oil, gas and most importantly to alternative energy technologies so that it can safeguard its energy security, reduce its dependence on traditional sources of oil and also help fight global warming. Technologies such as solar, wind, coal-based methane, double integrated gasification, and bio-fuels offer a huge scope for dividends and also help build energy security.
Wen Jiabao's three-day visit to Japan starting on April 11, 2007 was the first visit by a Chinese Premier in seven years. It has been hailed as an 'ice-melting' visit, distinguishing it from the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'ice-breaking' visit to China in October 2006. Though the visit did not bring about any fundamental change in Sino-Japanese relations, it did strike a new chord by enabling the relationship to be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective. For the first time, a visit did not focus squarely on the history issue.
Wen Jiabao's three-day visit to Japan starting on April 11, 2007 was the first visit by a Chinese Premier in seven years. It has been hailed as an 'ice-melting' visit, distinguishing it from the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's 'ice-breaking' visit to China in October 2006. Though the visit did not bring about any fundamental change in Sino-Japanese relations, it did strike a new chord by enabling the relationship to be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective. For the first time, a visit did not focus squarely on the history issue. Rather its aim was to flesh out the contents of the strategically and mutually beneficial relationship that was agreed upon by the two sides in the October 2006 meeting.
The history issue had overshadowed Sino-Japanese relations in the last few decades. While China had relegated its historical animosities with most countries to the backburner and instead gave preference to economics over politics, with Japan it has tended to consider history as the key issue. But this visit for the first time downgraded the history factor and emphasised upon economic, energy, and environmental issues. In his speech to the Japanese Diet, the first by a high-level Chinese dignitary in 22 years, Wen Jiabao briefly touched upon the history issue and said, "We believe that we need to take history as a mirror to guide the growth of our ties in the future. By stressing the importance of drawing lessons from history, we do not mean to perpetuate hatred. Rather we want to secure a better future for our relations." His speech was particularly encouraging as there was no mention of the Yasukuni Shrine. Some media reports suggested that this change in China's foreign policy approach was cosmetic and primarily driven by the forthcoming Olympic Games scheduled to be held in Beijing in 2008. Though the history factor would continue to hold considerable importance in Sino-Japanese relations, the visit does indicate China's forward looking and pragmatic foreign policy approach.
This pragmatism was visible in the five principles that Wen laid out in his Diet speech to build lasting Sino-Japanese relations. The first of these five principles was the need to increase mutual trust and honour commitments. In this context, Wen mentioned the Taiwan issue and sought Japan's co-operation and prudence on China's core national issue. The second principle related to seeking common ground while shelving differences and upholding the larger interests of the two countries. In this regard, Wen mentioned the issue of the East China Sea dispute, to tackle which the two countries should follow the principle of shelving differences and seek joint development so as to make it a Sea of peace, friendship and co-operation. Thirdly, he identified the promotion of common development based on equality and mutual benefit. Wen mentioned that economic development of both countries presents opportunities rather than posing threats to the other. The visit, in fact, resulted in the upgradation of bilateral economic co-operation by launching China-Japan high-level economic dialogue mechanisms. The two countries agreed to co-operate in energy, environmental protection, banking, new and high technology, information and communication and protection of intellectual property rights. Fourthly, Wen proposed the strengthening of exchanges with an eye on the future, including both mutual exchanges and mutual visits. He highlighted the fact that over 4.8 million mutual visits were made in 2006. Fifthly, he postulated close consultation to respond to challenges. Both countries agreed to maintain close co-ordination and uphold peace and stability in Northeast Asia and promote East Asia regional co-operation.
The basic content of the strategically and mutually beneficial relationship was further clearly outlined in the Japan-China Joint Press Statement signed on April 11. The eight-point Joint Statement emphasised on three broad issues - mutual exchanges, mutual co-operation, and regional and international co-operation. Mutual exchanges included the important area of defence, and the two sides decided to establish a communication mechanism between the two defence authorities in order to prevent the occurrence of unforeseen incidents at sea. Mutual co-operation included co-operation in energy and environmental protection and for the first time the two sides decided upon holding the First Energy Ministerial Policy Dialogue and the announcement of a joint statement concerning the enhancement of energy co-operation. On regional and international co-operation, both sides agreed to support United Nations reforms, co-operate on the Six-Party Talks and, most important of all, they decided to conduct joint development of East China Sea as a provisional framework until the final delimitation based on principles of mutual benefit are settled.
The joint statement however, did not lead to any concrete results on military and strategic issues. Though the proposal for joint handling of the East China Sea dispute was a welcome and significant step forward, it did not settle the row over drilling rights for natural gas deposits. Further, the statement did not spell out China's position on the crucial issue of Japan's Security Council membership and, therefore, the former's opposition to the latter's permanent membership will remain a thorny element in bilateral relations. Japan also remains apprehensive on the issue of Beijing's military build-up and lack of transparency on military spending. For its part, China is concerned about Japan's robust defence policy, deepening US-Japan alliance and growing Tokyo-Canberra military exchanges. More importantly, though the history question did not occupy the centre stage, it is far from resolved. There are significant sections in China who are not supportive of the moderate policies of Hu-Wen towards Japan and hold history to be the key issue between the two sides. In any future solution to the territorial disputes, the history factor is likely to emerge as a key contending area inhibiting improvement in bilateral relations.
Nonetheless, it appears from the Joint Statement that the key achievement of Wen's visit lay in the fact that history no longer occupies the key focus in Sino-Japanese relations. Economics have taken primacy over politics and, as hailed in the statement, stability and common development of the two countries are seen as prerequisites for both to rise peacefully. Further, co-operation on the East China Sea dispute and defence exchanges suggest upgradation of Sino-Japanese relations to the level of trust and mutual co-operation. All these indicate support for Wen Jiabao's exhortation that Sino-Japanese relations must be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective.
It is no exaggeration to state that Sino-Japanese relations are currently going through a phase of renewal and revival. Reflecting current sentiments that seek to build an optimistic future, Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese leader to visit Japan since 2000. Wen's visit follows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's surprise visit to China in October 2006, which was unfortunately overshadowed by the North Korean nuclear test.
It is no exaggeration to state that Sino-Japanese relations are currently going through a phase of renewal and revival. Reflecting current sentiments that seek to build an optimistic future, Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese leader to visit Japan since 2000. Wen's visit follows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's surprise visit to China in October 2006, which was unfortunately overshadowed by the North Korean nuclear test. During the tenure of Japan's previous Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, Sino-Japanese relations had cooled substantially because of his annual visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, as also Japan's refusal to deal 'appropriately' with its history textbooks which glossed over atrocities committed by its Imperial forces in China during World War II. On the contentious 'history disputes' between the two countries, Wen presented himself at his accommodative best by stating that "to reflect on history is not to dwell on hard feelings, but to remember and learn from the past to open a better future." Wen's visit to Japan took place just before the Yasukuni shrine starts an important biannual religious ceremony honouring the 'war dead' called Reitai-Sai on 21 April.
Outlining a methodology for bilateral political relations, Wen highlighted five principles guiding their future development in a speech delivered to the Japanese Diet. These are: "to enhance mutual trust and honour commitments; to consider the overall interests of both countries and in the meantime seek common ground and shelve differences; to pursue common development on the basis of equality and mutual benefit; to strengthen exchanges with an eye on the future; and, to conduct close consultations to cope with challenges.'
Reading between the lines, these principles refer to China's expectations that Japan would adhere to the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement of 1972 - the foundation of their bilateral relations, as also Japan's stated position on the 'One China' principle. As countries of influence which have important stakes in safeguarding peace and stability in Northeast Asia, China possibly expects Japan to increase its profile in the region by sharing its technological and financial expertise. From a Chinese perspective, while there are differences in opinion on various issues, the common interests that the two countries share negate the impact of these divergent views.
Significantly, the Wen visit had an important economic aspect, which effectively balances the political differences the two countries have on various issues. Since diplomatic relations were established in 1972, commercial ties have been exemplary. Bilateral trade volume between the two countries was estimated to be around US $207.3 billion in 2006 - 200 times the figure for 1972! Japan's direct investments in China exceed $58 billion, and are responsible for the establishment of more than 30,000 enterprises and joint ventures.
For China, Japan is one of its top economic partners and until recently a major source of development assistance. Currently, China ranks third behind India and Indonesia as a recipient of Japan's Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). It would appear that for both governments mutual economic benefit is increasingly the primary determinant of the relationship. Seeking deeper economic linkages, Wen called for the two countries to jointly "explore new areas and channels" to intensify economic co-operation. He put forward a five point proposal that primarily reflects China's growing awareness about achieving a transformation of its economy into an 'efficient' one in place of its somewhat 'wasteful' current status. The five points are: "to strengthen cooperation in environmental protection; to deepen energy cooperation; to facilitate cooperation between small and medium sized enterprises; to broaden cooperation in the financial sector; and to promote mutual investments."
The above proposal is indicative of China's growing concerns arising out of the excesses resulting from its rapid economic development and consequent need for cleaner technologies to rein in environmental degradation. China seeks access to Japanese expertise in optimising energy efficiency and the shift to environmentally friendly and socially responsible manufacturing processes. Lending gravity to this aspect was the trade delegation that accompanied Wen, which comprised of 150 executives from 50 major Chinese energy companies. The need for China to step up co-operation and learn from small and mid-sized enterprises in Japan is a pointer to the fact that all is not well with the ongoing process of restructuring Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs), which in the pre-reform period were the foundations of its socialist economy. By inviting Japanese capital into its financial system, China hopes to bring in stability and transparency to a sector that has been dogged by collusion, dodgy financial dealings and off-the-record record transactions. China also invites Japanese investments into the 'western development programme' as also for the revival of industrial growth in northeast China - the SOE heartland.
The 'feel good factor' generated by Wen Jiabao could be interpreted in two ways. First, to the domestic audience in China, Wen was putting across the message that anti-Japanese sentiments need to be toned down in favour of a greater economic relationship with Japan. Second, to observers in Japan, Wen came across as a 'moderate' who is pushing for active co-operation with Japan and willing to be accommodative on the recent past as well as outstanding issues. Wen's sober statements reflect the Chinese promotion of a 'responsible rise' that tempers extreme views on Japan without compromising on its grievances against Tokyo. Despite the recent bonhomie, tensions prevail and the image of Japan in China oscillates between that of a 'partner' (huoban) and a 'rival' (duishou). China closely watches Japan's policy statements on Taiwan despite Tokyo's espousal of the 'One China' policy. As a rival, Japan's quest to be a 'normal state' coupled with its symbiotic alliance with the United States generates heated debate in China. The 1997 Guidelines for US-Japan Defence Co-operation, which gave Japan regional security responsibilities, remains a sore point. For Chinese hardliners especially, Japan has forfeited the moral right to be a political or military power owing to wartime excesses committed by its troops in China and Southeast Asia. Hence, China remains highly sensitive to any development in Japan that would seem to confirm Chinese doubts over latent Japanese militarism. Given all this, Wen Jiabao's visit has to be seen as an attempt at restoring ties with Japan to normalcy before the process of deeper engagement takes over.
The Ministry of Defence (Finance) organised a day-long seminar on March 24, 2007 on Outsourcing Possibilities in Defence. The seminar brought together a variety of perspectives – of the Services, the Ministry of Defence, industry, academia and think tanks. The March 24 event was a follow-up to the first-of-its-kind International Seminar on Defence Finance and Economics held in November 2006. Its importance lies in the fact that not long ago ‘defence’ was considered a ‘strategic’ affair and thereby excluded from public scrutiny and economic analysis.
The Ministry of Defence (Finance) organised a day-long seminar on March 24, 2007 on Outsourcing Possibilities in Defence. The seminar brought together a variety of perspectives – of the Services, the Ministry of Defence, industry, academia and think tanks. The March 24 event was a follow-up to the first-of-its-kind International Seminar on Defence Finance and Economics held in November 2006. Its importance lies in the fact that not long ago ‘defence’ was considered a ‘strategic’ affair and thereby excluded from public scrutiny and economic analysis. The Ministry’s efforts to bring greater efficiency through outsourcing is indicative not only of budgetary constraints but also of the fact that defence business could be successfully run by adopting the best private business practices. The wider intention of the seminar was to explore ways for indigenisation and self-reliance in the field of defence production and military technology by means of outsourcing defence activities to efficient and reliable private partners who could offer services in a cost-competitive, time-bound manner and remain trustworthy in the long run. The various perspectives discussed in the seminar are highlighted in the succeeding paragraphs.
From a theoretical perspective, there are four compelling factors - cost minimisation/value maximisation, resource access, superior resource leverage, and risk diversification - that drive an organisation to opt for outsourcing. The outsourcing decision is based on 'core' and 'non-core' activities that determine which activities need to be retained in-house and which are to be purchased from the market. However, in the extremely competitive global market, there exists a very thin demarcation line defining 'core' and 'non-core' activities. Also, the outsourcing decision taken by the authorities of an organisation is based on estimation of economic costs and benefits and on the assumption that transactions are carried out to the optimum ability of the organisation in drawing and enforcing proper contracts - the last being susceptible to ignorance of market-player behaviour, thus becoming the key determining element for the success of any decision.
From the perspective of industry, the Indian private sector is suitably placed to work closely with their defence public sector counterparts. Private industry strongly feels that so far its prowess has not been optimally harnessed for domestic defence requirements, while in the global front it has been successful in providing services to large multinational companies like Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, etc. While the benefits of defence outsourcing to the private sector is endless and includes import independence, technological self reliance, faster and cheaper supply of logistics, the areas where they can play a meaningful role is virtually exhaustive. However, not so long ago, the private sector’s role in defence was confined merely to providing raw materials, semi-finished products and parts and components to Ordnance Factories and Defence Public Sector Units. But, with the government allowing private participation including foreign direct investment, the private sector has been able to produce high-end defence products, demonstrating its effectiveness in translating its civil prowess into defence business. With the rising profile of Indian private industries on the global scene backed by competitiveness, quality standards and efficiency there is enough confidence among the private enterprises to delve into hardcore development and production of hi-tech defence equipment. To accommodate private industry, in recent years the government has initiated policy measures like for instance the Defence Procurement Policy, 2006 to boost greater private participation. But what is needed is that along with policy measures, there should be a concerted effort to encourage public private partnership (PPP) and greater outsourcing to the private sector. Some of the items that could be easily outsourced to the private sector include land systems, vehicles, engineering equipment, marine systems, aviation systems, arms and ammunitions, UAVs, surveillance systems, IT and communication radars and radio sets. Besides, private industry feels that the existing Defence Supply and Storage Network, vast Defence Estates, Armed Forces Medical Services and Defence Personnel Recruitment could be outsourced to private players for better management, speedy and quality services and for revenue generation. Similarly, the government should address the concern of the private players arising out of the discriminatory benefits enjoyed by the public sector in producing equipment the prototypes of which are developed by private players.
The Indian Army views outsourcing as a form of privatisation wherein some or all of its logistics function is performed by an outside organisation. There is a degree of suspicion on the part of the Army vis-à-vis outsourcing and this suspicion arises out of security of supply and timely availability of required quantity and quality. While feeling the need for greater outsourcing, at the same time it does not want to relinquish control over its dedicated logistics units. However, it identifies three broad areas for possible outsourcing: ‘system support’ related to maintenance and repair of equipment; ‘services’ linked to transportation, medicare and security; ‘contingency and competitive’ related to services and civil contracts, etc. In its proposed methodology of outsourcing, the army divides logistics support into three levels: strategic, operational, and tactical or direct support. On analysing three levels of logistics, the Army does not recommend outsourcing of tactical logistics as it forms the first and second line of support to troops and provides them confidence during operations. The Army feels that due to inhospitable terrain and war-like circumstances, private operators may find it difficult to do business in some cases. So the army suggests categorising all functions into core and non-core functions. While the core functions are to be retained in-house because of their criticality during military missions, the non-core functions, which are non-operational in nature, could be outsourced.
Outsourcing in the Indian Air Force (IAF) goes back to as early as 1940 and the experience so far has been mixed. A number of activities like security of IAF installations, repair, overhaul and upgradation of various weapons systems and equipment and refuelling operations at various IAF bases have been outsourced at varying proportions. Further outsourcing is contingent upon the suppliers' flexibility and willingness to take up additional tasks. The experience that the IAF has gained relates to poor quality of the supplies and the prolonged time for corrective measures which are not to its satisfaction. In case of obsolescence of products, the IAF found that the outsourced agencies find it commercially unviable because of the changing situations with respect to design, development and cost escalation over a long period, resulting in low availability of product upgrades. Besides, a limited vendor base escalates repair costs and greater concentration on high-end products by original equipment manufactures (OEM) creates problems for product upgradations. Similarly, the IAF found lack of accountability among private suppliers.
Based on its experience, the IAF wants to tread the outsourcing path cautiously. It feels that outsourcing creates critical dependencies that do not bode well during crisis situations, since legally private contractors could not be compelled to go to war zones. The core functions of air warfare like self-sufficiency of combat units, operation of combat aircraft and first line maintenance are not to be outsourced. However, the IAF is in the process of drawing up an action plan to pursue outsourcing in the years ahead, and has set an immediate target of fifty per cent, which would be increased depending upon the satisfaction level.
The Indian Navy, by decentralising financial powers, has been able to outsource many activities for the purpose of inducting modern technology and increasing levels of synergy and co-ordination. At present, these areas broadly include: operational requirements like ship refit and overhaul, ship engineering, and engine overhaul; technical support related to maintenance of equipment, building conservancy, IT, and dredging of channels; administrative support for ferry service, etc. The three areas which the Navy wants exclusive control over and out of the ambit of outsourcing are: weapons and sensors; networking and communication; and basic ship design. The Navy contends that these need heavy doses of Research and Development costs or need to be under its control for operational security reasons. It has identified outsourcing and private participation as means of greater indigenisation and self-reliance. Towards this end, it has set up institutional mechanisms, the Directorate of Indigenisation and Local Units at the Command level to encourage Indian Industry to enter into collaborations/partnerships with their foreign counterparts and thus ensure the supply of latest technology to the force.
At present, the Indian Navy faces certain difficulties in its outsourcing efforts. Most DPSUs that cater to the Navy’s requirements of building warships either lack facilities close to naval bases or do not possess adequate capacity to handle the workload. However, in recent years the government has been encouraging private player participation and the result is visible with Larsen and Toubro building a huge shipyard at Hazira. Also, the Navy wants a strong defence industrial base at major naval bases – Mumbai, Visakhapatnam, Kochi, Port Blair and Karwar – as a major prerequisite to serve the outsourced activities of the Navy more efficiently. Another problem facing the Navy is the absence of firm guidelines, leading to uncertainty regarding the procedures to be followed for execution.
While the seminar was successful in bringing to the fore the perspectives of various stakeholders, concerted follow-up action at higher levels is needed to proceed along this path. So far, outsourcing activities of the Armed Forces have been left to the individual Services who perform this important activity on their own in varying proportions depending on their convenience and needs. Among the three Services, the Navy is more outsource-oriented than the others and has institutional mechanisms to promote this. While the Army and Air Force could learn from the Navy’s experiences and practices, there is an urgent need for an overarching mechanism to guide this important aspect in all the three Services. In this regard, the Ministry of Defence could take a cue from its British counterpart in formulating a policy paper on outsourcing. The UK MoD Policy Paper on Defence Acquisition, released in 2001, has clearly laid out principles which, besides promoting Public Private Partnership (PPP) and Private Finance Initiatives (PFI), identify potential areas that could best be served by private parties. Under this policy, only when the PFI has been found to be ‘unworkable, inappropriate or uneconomic’, can the Ministry use its own capital funds. The Ministry has no “dogmatic preference for private over public or vice versa.” This British initiative has not only transferred the Ministry’s risk but has also benefited it from savings in capital investment. The PFI initiative has saved up to ‘forty per cent in forecast costs compared with other (read government initiated) forms of procurement’. A number of contracts awarded to private players, including some in strategic areas, are testimony to both the competency level and trust in handling strategic matters by the private sector. A similar exercise in India will not only benefit the country’s security establishment in terms of savings in time and costs but also help in realising self-sufficiency in ‘defence production and military technology’, the cherished long-term objective of the Government of India.
The LTTE's air attack on the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Katunayake, adjoining the Katunayake International Airport (KIA), marks a new dimension in the three-decade-old conflict. The bombing raid by the Tamileelam Air Force (TAF), reportedly originating from Vanni, has not only sharpened the focus on the island's security but also on that of India. Besides, the bombing, which left three people killed and about 17 injured, has thrown open the question of how weak the Tigers really are even after the debacle they have recently suffered in the Eastern Province.
The LTTE's air attack on the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Katunayake, adjoining the Katunayake International Airport (KIA), marks a new dimension in the three-decade-old conflict. The bombing raid by the Tamileelam Air Force (TAF), reportedly originating from Vanni, has not only sharpened the focus on the island's security but also on that of India. Besides, the bombing, which left three people killed and about 17 injured, has thrown open the question of how weak the Tigers really are even after the debacle they have recently suffered in the Eastern Province. In the wake of the air attack, several questions have arisen. Why did the LTTE resort to an air attack? How significant is its air wing and what is its strength? Is the LTTE now in a position to attack any target in the island? If so, what are the most likely targets? What are the security implications of this latest development? And, is there a possibility of a similar attack on southern India?
The air attack was in clear violation of Sri Lankan airspace and of the tenets of international law. The aircraft used for the attack flew about 350 nautical miles at an average speed of 150 mph, carrying an ordnance load of 1,040 kilograms. There are many motives behind this first major aerial attack. The primary need for using Air Tigers at this stage was to counter and intimidate the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), at whose hands the LTTE has suffered immense damage over the past year in the North and East of the island. Though the international airport lies next to the Air Force base, the Tigers chose not to target it given the implications it would have in the international arena.
Though attacks and threats from the LTTE are not new, the use of aircraft underscores the Tigers' capabilities. The LTTE has not only demonstrated its ability to take on the Sri Lankan government but also in establishing a state structure with its own army, navy and air force. Though speculation is rife about the strength of the Air Tigers, so far the LTTE has not disclosed the type and number of light-wing aircraft in its possession. However, there are reports that say that the Tigers have two to five aircraft. The United States has confirmed that one of these aircraft is a Czech-built Zlin Z-143, while another could be a Swiss-built Pilatus PC 7 trainer.
The attack on the air base seems to have boosted the LTTE's confidence to take on and even subjugate the Sri Lankan Air Force. Ilanthiraiyan, military spokesperson of the Tigers, stated that Sri Lankan military installations would be the main targets of any such attacks in the future. Second on the list would be commercial establishments in Colombo and in southern Sri Lanka. Thirdly, the Tigers could use their air wing to deter the Sri Lankan Government in general by targeting strategic national buildings. Besides, these aircraft would come in handy during emergencies to move supplies from other bases or evacuate critically wounded cadres for treatment and safety.
The LTTE's acquisition of aircraft seems to have upset the balance of power in Sri Lanka. It has once again brought in a sense of insecurity among the common people and has shaken the entire island. Sri Lankan authorities, who have been seriously concerned about the implications of the LTTE's success in acquiring an air capability, have at present confined their reaction to bringing the matter to the notice of the international community and India in particular. The immediate need of the Sri Lankan government is the stepping up of security measures, especially for strategically important places. There is also a need to exercise restraint in using its air force, given that it could result in further escalation of the air campaign by the Air Tigers.
The Tigers' air attack has also forced India to devote greater attention to the unfolding events in Sri Lanka. For, it squarely raises the question of the scale of, and threat from, the LTTE presence across the Palk Strait. While analysts speculate about the possibility of the LTTE using aircraft against India, especially to target nuclear facilities in South India like Kalpakkam and Kudankulam, such a possibility appears remote. The Tigers are aware that they lost sympathy and support in Tamil Nadu after their role in Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, and it is unlikely that they would further antagonize India in general and Tamil public opinion in particular. However, if India were to give direct military assistance to the Sri Lankan government or introduce troops into the island in order to stymie the LTTE's cause, the Tigers could feel compelled to use air power against Indian naval and commercial craft.
Finally, although the violence has been constantly escalating by the day, the LTTE's aerial attack has brought about a perceptible change in the nature of the conflict in Sri Lanka. The LTTE has gained considerable psychological strength and has demonstrated its resolve and resilience in the face of recent setbacks. And its use of aircraft has added the aerial dimension to a conflict that has hitherto been limited to land and sea. At a stroke the attack has starkly brought to light the continuing vulnerability of the Sri Lankan government and its infrastructure as well as of the Sinhala population to continued attacks by the LTTE. The attack also underscores the vulnerability of southern India. New Delhi needs to gear up its security, surveillance and intelligence apparatuses to cater for this grave threat.
On February 28, 2007, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the Union Budget for the fiscal Year 2007-08 (April 1, 2007 - March 31, 2008). Out of a total budgeted expenditure of Rs. 6,80,521 crore, Rs. 96,000 crore was earmarked for national Defence, which includes allocations to the three Services - Army, Navy and Air Force - Defence Ordnance Factories, and the Defence Research and Development Organisation. This is besides the allocation of Rs. 16, 695.83 crore for Defence Civil Estimates, including Rs. 14,649 crore for Defence Pensions.
On February 28, 2007, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the Union Budget for the fiscal Year 2007-08 (April 1, 2007 - March 31, 2008). Out of a total budgeted expenditure of Rs. 6,80,521 crore, Rs. 96,000 crore was earmarked for national Defence, which includes allocations to the three Services - Army, Navy and Air Force - Defence Ordnance Factories, and the Defence Research and Development Organisation. This is besides the allocation of Rs. 16, 695.83 crore for Defence Civil Estimates, including Rs. 14,649 crore for Defence Pensions. Adding Defence Civil Estimates to the Defence budget, the total Indian military budget now stands at Rs. 1,12,695.8 crore. However, by convention, the Civil Estimates are not included in the calculations of the Defence budget in India.
In nominal terms, the Defence budget of Rs. 96,000 crore is an increase of 7.87 per cent over the budget estimates (Rs. 89,000 crore), and 11.63 per cent over the revised budget (Rs. 86,000 crore) for the year 2006-07. There is thus an immediate net loss of Rs. 3,000 crore (3.4 per cent of the original budget) to the Defence establishment, owing to the Services' inability to spend funds meant for capital expenditure during the previous financial year. The Services' inability to spend funds has probably cost them another Rs. 4,000 crore in the new budget, which could have taken the new budget to the figure of Rs. 100,000 crore. In the new budget, revenue expenditure accounts for 56.3 per cent (Rs. 54,078 crore), and capital expenditure accounts for 43.7 per cent (Rs. 41,922 crore) of the total budget. While the revenue budget has declined by 0.58 percentage points, that of capital expenditure has increased by 1.58 percentage points over the budgeted estimates for the previous year. Compared to the revised estimates for 2006-07, in the latest allocations, the share of revenue expenditure has decreased by 3.6 percentage points while that for capital expenditure has gone up by the same percentage points.
The recent trend of declining revenue allocations and rising capital allocations can be traced back to 2004-05, when the capital budget was suddenly increased by nearly one and a half times, while the revenue budget was cut by nearly 14 percentage points. In the revenue side of the budget, pay and allowances, including those of personnel, civilians and reservists account for the second largest expenditure (after Stores which receives Rs. 25,668.22 crore), at Rs. 21,020.81 crore, which is nearly 40 per cent of the revenue budget and 22 per cent of the total Defence budget. When the recommendations of the 6th Pay Commission get implemented, the revenue budget will inflate significantly. The 5th Pay Commission inflated the revenue budget by nearly 16 per cent. A similar situation this time will raise the revenue budget by at least eight to nine thousand crore, because of increases in just Pay and Allowances.
On the capital side, this year's allocations for procurement purposes stands at nearly Rs. 27,000 crore, 3000 crore more than was allotted in the previous year. Though the major portion of the procurement budget will go towards meeting 'committed liabilities', the remainder could be utilised by the Services for a new set of modernisation programmes.
Service wise, the Army has the lead with a budget of Rs. 45,684.51 crore (47.59 per cent of total budget), followed by the Air Force at Rs. 27,021.74 crore (28.15 per cent) and the Navy bringing up the rear at Rs. 17,529.44 crores (18.25 per cent). Compared to the budgeted estimates for 2006-07, the Army's share has gone up by 0.1 percentage point, while those for the Air force and Navy have gone up by 0.2 percentage points each. The allocation for Defence Research and Development has gone up by Rs. 433.49 crore, and it now stands at Rs. 5887.22 crore, representing 6.13 per cent of the total budget. Though the present allocations reinforce the fact that the Indian military is Army-centric, yet, some components of the Army budget - National Cadet Corps (NCC) and Military Farms - need a revision in the budget making process to better reflect their true character and for easy understanding. Similarly, the Coast Guard and Jammu & Kashmir Light Infantry (JAKLI) are also excluded from the defence budget. This is done for the purpose of under-valuation, but it is unnecessary given that information in this regard is easily available in the public domain.
The Defence budget for 2007-08 is only 2.10 per cent of the expected GDP for the coming fiscal year, as against 2.17 per cent in the previous year. In the last four fiscal years since 2004-05, Defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP has been continuously declining. Similarly, Defence expenditure as a percentage of total Central government expenditure has this time around come down to 14.11 per cent from 14.79 per cent in the previous year. In the last four years, there has been a more than two percentage point decline on this front. These declining trends are in contrast to the commitment made by the Prime Minister to push the Defence budget towards the three per cent of GDP mark in the backdrop of strong economic growth. In nominal terms, though the economy is all set to grow by more than 45 per cent between 2004-05 and 2007-08, the Defence budget has actually gone up by only 26 per cent in the same period.
This mismatch between the growth of the economy and that of defence allocations raises the question as to whether it is the government that is not willing to provide sufficient funds to the armed forces, or whether the Armed Forces are unable to utilise allotted funds in a timely manner. A perusal of the Defence Services Estimates (DSE) reveals that the Armed Forces have surrendered nearly Rs, 40,000 crore in the past decade, forgetting the consequences of two important underlying principles of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM Act): each rupee surrendered from the present budget is one rupee lost in the next budget; and the more that is spent from the present budget, the more will be allotted in the next budget. As the Services' record of spending allotted funds is not displaying any improvement, the Ministry of Finance did not grant more funds, possibly because of the understanding that the surrendered funds could have earned better returns if they had been allocated for other productive purposes. Perhaps, this aspect is the most crucial factor that justifies the mismatch between robust economic growth and a relatively lower growth in the defence budget. In this regard, the demand for higher allocations from GDP or Central Government expenditure has to be compatible with the improved spending habits of the Services, which in turn depends on rational decision-making. At present, most of decisions pertaining to equipment or platforms do not conform to the simple economic principle of competition, leading to compromise on time, cost and quality. As long as these aspects are not taken care of, no amount of increased allocation would be adequate, considering that allotted funds will be used at a sub-optimal level
With the passage of a year since the visit of President George W. Bush to India, it is the business communities of the two countries that have benefited the most from the momentum created by the upsurge in Indo-US relations. While two-way trade and investment had been growing at a steady clip, the announcement and subsequent passage of the Bill on Co-operation in Civil Nuclear Energy, intended to remove the last vestiges of the adversarial relations between the two countries, have taken business relations to a new level.
With the passage of a year since the visit of President George W. Bush to India, it is the business communities of the two countries that have benefited the most from the momentum created by the upsurge in Indo-US relations. While two-way trade and investment had been growing at a steady clip, the announcement and subsequent passage of the Bill on Co-operation in Civil Nuclear Energy, intended to remove the last vestiges of the adversarial relations between the two countries, have taken business relations to a new level.
This was best manifested by US FDI investment in India during the current financial year, which virtually doubled over the previous year, as also by the November 2006 visit to India of the largest ever business delegation from the United States to any country thus far. A third set of figures that has relevance in this regard is the half a million US visas issued to Indians in 2006 (expected to go up to 800,000 this year), and between 150,000 to 200,000 US nationals, mainly business visitors, coming to India in the same year.
Given the opportunities for business that exist in both countries, it is not surprising that business organizations such as the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the US-India Business Council (USIBC) were at the forefront of lobbying for the passage of the Bill in Congress. They, along with the two governments, have also been acting as facilitators for the business communities in the two countries to look for trade and investment opportunities. The November trade delegation, for instance, was led by US Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Frank Lavin, and more than half of the 200-odd companies represented in the delegation were visiting India for the first time. US business interest in India is not just limited to the big multi-national companies; business delegations are expected from the various states in 2007, indicating interest on the part of small and medium companies to engage in business in India and to collaborate with their Indian counterparts. While Alabama has already sent two trade delegations to India in 2007, trade delegations from many other states are expected over the next few months. US states are also actively scouting for investments by Indian companies. For instance, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority has set up a field office in Bangalore in 2004 and the State of Maryland followed suit shortly thereafter. Such initiatives have paid off with nearly 16 Indian companies, mostly information technology firms like Infosys and Sify, setting up office in Fairfax county.
The cumulative value of US exports to India crossed US $10 billion in 2006 while India's trade with the United States has also shown a comparable increase, with exports to the United States shooting up from $15 billion in 2004 to $22 billion in 2006. The two countries have set a target of doubling bilateral trade to $50 billion in three years time. The synergies between the two economies is exemplified by the fact that the imbalance in merchandise trade in favour of India is offset by surpluses in services trade favouring the US.
American businesses' new-found interest in India is also partly driven by their awareness of the attempts of their government to moderate the rate of investment by US businesses in China, and reduce the huge trade deficit between those two countries. The possibilities for increased friction between China and the United States and a resultant adverse business climate was alluded to by Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath when he noted at a public interaction with visiting US Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez that there was a difference between doing business for the sake of doing business, and doing business with friends.
The impact of friendly relations on the business climate is also brought out by the lack of any significant opposition to the many mergers and acquisitions carried out by Indian companies in the US in the recent past, in stark contrast to vehement opposition raised against Chinese and Middle Eastern companies. Indian companies are estimated to have carried out M&A deals of more than $1 billion in the US in 2006. According to reports, including Hindalco's acquisition of US-Canadian steel major Novelis for $6 billion in February, Indian companies have already announced M&A deals worth $32 billion for 2007, many of them being with US companies. With the Planning Commission estimating that $350 billion (Rs 15,61,000 crores) worth of investment is required over the next three years to sustain the current growth rate of 8 per cent, the opportunities for US companies and institutional investors are endless.
The Indian diaspora in the United States has also played an important part in lubricating the wheels of business between the two countries. According to a recent study, between 1995 and 2005, Indian Americans founded more start-ups in Silicon Valley than migrants from China, the United Kingdom, Japan and Taiwan combined. Just as the Indian workforce in US companies played an important part in the eighties and nineties in channelling investment into Bangalore and paving the way for India's IT revolution, Indian entrepreneurs are now benefiting from the business expertise of the Silicon Valley pioneers, with venture capital firms investing $508 million in 92 start-ups in India in 2006. Their knowledge and familiarity with both Indian and US business practices make it easier for both Indian and American businesses to spread their wings in either country. The field offices of both Fairfax County and Maryland, for instance, are headed by Indian Americans.
The crucial combination of opportunities and facilitators, and the fortunate confluence of history and circumstance, has made it that much more easier for the governments of the two countries to walk the business talk.
The recent meeting of the Indo-Russian Business Co-operation Council and the Trade and Investment Forum in New Delhi was significant, in that it took place after the recent summit-level talks between the two countries. This symbolises the fact that both countries assign considerable value to increasing bilateral trade and economic co-operation.
The recent meeting of the Indo-Russian Business Co-operation Council and the Trade and Investment Forum in New Delhi was significant, in that it took place after the recent summit-level talks between the two countries. This symbolises the fact that both countries assign considerable value to increasing bilateral trade and economic co-operation.
Fresh impetus was provided to the strategic partnership between India and Russia during President Putin's recent visit to India. His visit reinforced the interests of both states in maintaining their traditionally close and friendly relationship. But the question that still remains is, whether a similar impetus was provided to boost trade and economic co-operation between the two countries.
Bilateral trade between Russia and India was severely affected due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The break-up of the USSR in 1991 and India's economic liberalisation about the same time resulted in a drastic reduction in bilateral trade and economic co-operation. At present, the two economies display certain interesting similarities. Both economies are resurging and at the same time diversifying. They have achieved significant rates of economic growth over the last few years - seven per cent in the case of India and about 6.9 per cent in the case of Russia. This robust growth provides a strong base for expanding business contacts and promoting new projects.
An analysis of bilateral trade shows that India's main exports to Russia are not growing at a consistent rate over the past few years, while Indian imports from Russia have remained almost static over the last decade and a half. There is a need to address specific areas to ensure greater trade flows and to reach the target set by the two governments of US $10 billion in total trade by 2010.
The greatest hindrance to trade between India and Russia is the lack of trade routes. There is need to optimise the shipping route because, until a viable and shorter route for trade is worked out, higher growth rates in trade of goods will continue to be hampered. The agreement on the new India-Russia Transport corridor may help in reducing transport costs. The present route, which passes through the Suez Canal and enters the Russian port of St. Petersburg via Kotka (Finland) and Rotterdam (Netherlands), is long and time consuming. The new route - Mumbai-Bandar Abbas-Astrakhan - would comprise of sea and land links across India, Iran and Russia and will shorten travel time by as much as ten days. The North-South Corridor thus needs greater attention from both countries.
Despite the interest shown by both sides to increase bilateral flow of goods and services, there are still some trade barriers, non-tariff barriers for instance, that continue to plague bilateral trade. These too need to be identified and addressed, since they hinder market access.
Another issue that needs to be addressed seriously pertains to the remaining funds under the Rupee-Rouble debt agreement. Between 1953 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, bilateral trade was conducted through a specific system of trade and payment called the Rupee trade system based on annual plans. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Indian and Russian governments renegotiated the entire trading arrangement. After several rounds of discussions, an agreement was reached in 1993, under which rouble credit was denominated in Rupees and a repayment schedule was drawn up. The agreement provided for an annual repayment of about US $1 billion equivalent in Rupee to Russia over a period of 12 years starting from 1994, with smaller amounts for a further period of 33 years. The Rupee debt funds were to be used by the Russian side to import goods and trade related services from India. Since then, bilateral trade has been based on payments in freely convertible currencies. All Russian exports to India follow the new system. But in the last decade, about two-thirds of Indian exports were financed through the renegotiated rupee-debt repayment mechanism.
India and Russia also need to look at other relevant issues including the expansion of inter-banking co-operation and easing of visa regulations for Indian professionals for short as well as longer periods, including business travel. For investment purposes, at present the greatest promise lies in joint collaboration in the area of energy. Russia has the energy potential to satisfy India's growing energy needs. While public sector energy companies from India have already made large investments in Russia, private sector companies too now need to look at investments in downstream petroleum units in Russia in return for a stake in petroleum refineries there.
Despite economic policy changes in both countries, the Indo-Russian economic relationship is still dominated by defence/public sector transactions. The military industrial complex (MIC) still stands at the core of strong Indo-Russian economic linkages. India is further expected to continue importing defence equipment from Russia in the coming years.
Macro-economic stability and growth in the two economies continued mainly because of their intensive expansion of internal consumer and investment demand. Overall, the economic policies of both countries aimed at supporting macroeconomic equilibrium and stimulating growth. Today, Russia's ambition seems to be not just limited to becoming a prime supplier of energy to the world market but to eventually re-emerge as a great economic power using petrodollars. Similarly, today's India has a lot to offer to Russia. Sectors in which India has shown high export growth over the last few years are information and communication technology, professional services such as medical health (specifically dental), engineering, travel and tourism, as well as certain financial services. Russia, on the other hand, has demonstrated expertise in, apart from the energy sector, research and development in scientific and technological sectors, transport services, etc. The two countries could also consider building a strong platform for sharing views on innovation and research and development in the above mentioned areas so as to learn and benefit from each other's competence. Both countries could also roll out new initiatives to boost bilateral economic co-operation.
Russia's Economic Report of December 2006 states that it has been experiencing severe shortages of skilled labour due to demographic decline. This has had an adverse effect on its economic growth. In this context, it could be of mutual interest if professionals from India were to be hired to meet Russian requirements. This idea was discussed during Putin's January 2007 visit as well as during the recent visit of Russia's Minister of Economic Development & Trade. Now Russia is looking for alternatives in the form of expatriate labour from Central Asia and the Caucasus, mainly because of the latter's familiarity with and knowledge of the Russian language. If Indian job seekers were to learn the Russian language, it would boost employment opportunities for them in Russia. Chinese labourers have already started finding a foothold in Russia's Far East, and they might very soon spread to other parts of Russia as well. There is no doubt that Russia will prefer Indians rather than Chinese in this regard.
India and Russia have to exploit their comparative advantages in a globalising world if they wish to expand bilateral trade and deepen economic co-operation. This is imperative to add greater ballast to their strategic partnership in the 21st century.
In response to the government-organised National Naxalite Co-ordination Committee meeting held in December 2006 at Bhubaneswar, Naxalites have enunciated their counter-strategy. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), which accounts for 98 per cent of left-wing extremist violence in India, decided to intensify the people's war by increasing its mass base across the country and strengthening its armed cadres. The decision, taken at a leadership conclave held somewhere in the forests along the Jharkand-Orissa border sometime in January or February 2007, was unanimous.
In response to the government-organised National Naxalite Co-ordination Committee meeting held in December 2006 at Bhubaneswar, Naxalites have enunciated their counter-strategy. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), which accounts for 98 per cent of left-wing extremist violence in India, decided to intensify the people's war by increasing its mass base across the country and strengthening its armed cadres. The decision, taken at a leadership conclave held somewhere in the forests along the Jharkand-Orissa border sometime in January or February 2007, was unanimous. The 9th Unity Congress was attended by about one hundred CPI-Maoist leaders from sixteen Indian states, three Nepalese Maoists, and one Maoist activist each from Bangladesh and the Philippines. The successful convening of the congress, despite heavy security arrangements and intelligence networks on the Jharkand-Orissa border, brings into question the government's counterinsurgency efforts and intelligence efficiency.
The Naxalite congress resolved to advance the people's war throughout India by strengthening the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the military wing of the CPI-Maoist, and mobilising more cadres through militant mass movements against the neo-liberal policies of globalisation, liberalisation, and privatisation. The conclave also decided to expand the armed struggle from 'guerrilla war' to 'urban and mobile warfare', focusing on industrial areas. The conclave also exhorted Naxalite cadres to use every possible means to free detained activists, including through jailbreaks.
A particularly noteworthy development at the conclave was reaffirmation of faith in agrarian revolution as the axis of, and protracted people's war as the path for, the new democratic revolution. This had first come on the agenda with the Naxalbari upsurge in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The new context for reaffirming the nearly four-decades-old agenda is the move towards setting up Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and conversion of farmlands into industrial zones. As many as 250 proposals to create SEZs in 21 states are awaiting approval from various state governments, and decisions on these are being delayed mainly due to disputes over the compensation package and acquisition of agricultural land without a suitable relief and rehabilitation package. Recently, Naxalites achieved great success in increasing their support base and reviving the movement by opposing Nandigram and Singur SEZs in West Bengal. They plan to use resistance to the SEZ phenomenon as a means to expand their presence to new areas.
The conclave also adopted the tactics of the Naxals' Nepalese counterparts, that of extending unconditional support to minorities and their demands. Muppala Lakshman Rao alias Ganapathi, who has been re-elected general secretary, declared:
"We should support 'just struggles' of nationalities and sub-nationalities that demand a separate state for their development. Kashmiris and various nationalities of the North-East, such as the Assamese, Nagas, Manipuris and Tripuris, have long been waging an armed struggle against the Indian Government for their right to self-determination, including the right to secede from the so-called Union of India."
Maoists in Nepal had declared eight minority autonomous regions during their armed struggle phase and garnered immense support from these areas. Similarly, the CPI-Maoist has been supporting demands for separate states like Telengana (in Andhra Pradesh), Vidarbha (in Maharashtra), and Kosala (in Orissa). The Maoists believe that small states cannot counter their movement, which would eventually would help them set up a communist state in the subcontinent.
The congress decided to form organisations such as 'Committee to Release Prisoners', comprising intellectuals, democracy lovers, and members of the families of imprisoned comrades. "Efforts are already underway," the general secretary said. According to the Credential Committee report of the Unity Congress, six top activists in Andhra Pradesh and 26 in Tamil Nadu are detained under POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act), while 16 in Karnataka and about 25 in north Chhattisgarh have been languishing in jail. This resolution was earlier passed in the third CCOMPOSA (Co-ordination Committee of Maoist Parties and Organisations of South Asia) meeting in 2004. Since then India has experienced frequent attacks on jails, as seen in Jehanabad (Bihar), Koraput (Orissa) and R. Udayagiri jail (Gajapati district, Orissa).
The main purpose of the latest Maoist conclave was to decide upon setting up base areas in new regions to highlight current issues like forcible displacement caused by Special Economic Zones, industrialisation, infrastructure development projects, caste oppression, and Hindu fascism. The outfit also wanted to restructure itself because of fear that the arrests of Sobha, a member of the central committee, in Orissa in November 2006 and technical committee members from Bhopal, Rourkela and Jharkhand in January 2007 might have led to leaking of its vital secrets to the security agencies. The conclave was also intended to evaluate the Naxalites' performance and assess prospects for qualitative development such as turning the guerrilla war into mobile war and guerrilla zones into base areas. Another objective was to explore new tactics amidst the changes taking place in the agrarian situation, especially in Punjab within the semi-feudal framework, and its impact on the Naxalite tactics. The recent success of the Nepalese Maoists seems to have encouraged the Maoist leaders in India to take to violent ways. One media report indicated that a joint training camp of the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam), Nepalese Maoists and Indian Maoists has been organised on the India-Nepal border.
The Home Ministry's assessment of Naxal violence in the country, dated February 12, 2007 is that, except for Chhattisgarh, violence elsewhere in the country was well under control. The exception was attributed to the Naxalite attempt to derail the Salwa Judum movement in Chhattisgarh. Earlier on December 29, Union Home Secretary, V.K. Duggal had said that Naxalite violence had declined. The violence may have declined, though not the movement. The Maoists do not abruptly launch into 'armed struggle' or violence, but are known to go for gradual consolidation, including a preliminary study of local social, economic and political conditions and the vulnerabilities of particular populations. They prefer to maintain a low profile in adverse conditions. They also keep violence low in border regions, which will keep away police attention and facilitate intra-state movement.
Participation of the Nepalese Maoists in the Congress indicates that there is a great degree of co-ordination between the CPN-Maoist and their Indian counterparts. Despite signing the peace agreement with the Seven Party Alliance, it seems the Nepalese Maoists have not deviated from their objective of setting up a communist State in Nepal. In fact, members of the CPN-Maoist have attended meetings organised by the CCOMPOSA and Indian Maoists. The US has been alleging that the Nepalese Maoists were buying antiquated, home-made weapons in Bihar in order to hand them over to UN inspectors while hiding their own more sophisticated weapons. There are also reports in the local press that the Maoists have returned only looted arms. On February 23, 2007 there were reports in the media that hundreds of former Nepalese Maoist armed cadres stormed out of a camp where they had been confined under a peace deal, citing lack of food and government failure to provide materials for proper shelter. Its strong linkages to Indian Maoists and commitment to the armed struggle further reflects in the outfit's recent arms procurement activities. Indian Army intelligence is reported to have proved a close connection between the Nepalese Maoists and the terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The arrest and subsequent interrogation of the Nepalese Maoist, Pasang Lama, on Indian territory has substantiated reports of this link.
Naxalites follow flexible tactics. If the situation warrants it, they confine the movement at the level of political mobilisation, highlight local issues through front organisations and organise meetings in strongholds. Instead of focusing only on the violent aspects of the movement, the government should monitor the activities of the front organisations as well. In addition, there is a need to strengthen the capabilities of the local police in intelligence collection, and provide them special training as well as socio-economic guarantee to the field staff in order to make them more effective.
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