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    India and the US-India Agreement for Civil Nuclear Cooperation G. Balachandran July 03, 2007

    Although it is nearly two years since the July 18, 2005 Joint Statement between President George Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced their intention to facilitate civil nuclear commerce between India and the members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the process is still to be completed with even the first step towards that goal, an Indo-US agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation, still under negotiations with apparently strong differences between the two countries on a number of issues. Expectations are that the agreement may be finalised by the end of this year.

    Although it is nearly two years since the July 18, 2005 Joint Statement between President George Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced their intention to facilitate civil nuclear commerce between India and the members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the process is still to be completed with even the first step towards that goal, an Indo-US agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation, still under negotiations with apparently strong differences between the two countries on a number of issues. Expectations are that the agreement may be finalised by the end of this year. It is, however, most unlikely that the critics of the agreement, both in India and the US, would be happy with the 123 agreement when it is agreed to by both parties. It is, of course, altogether another matter whether they would be satisfied with any 123 agreement! Nevertheless, it would be useful to consider the form a final 123 agreement may take and analyse how it addresses the concerns of both countries. At this point, it would be useful to consider the generic form the US-India 123 agreement should take rather than over analyzing individual components.

    Before analysing the issues relating to the 123 agreement, however, some factors have to be kept in mind. Firstly, India is still classified technically under US law as a non-nuclear weapon state and therefore the 123 agreement has to conform to the US legislation applicable to non-nuclear-weapon states. Two, it is extremely unlikely that the US Congress would amend any more laws to accommodate India. Three, India is, however, a de facto nuclear weapon state and accepted as one by the United States and the rest of the international community. Therefore, as a responsible nuclear weapon state, it cannot accept any conditions that would have the effect of degrading its nuclear deterrence. Four, the 123 agreement, in its final form, should (i) enable India to access equipment, components and materials immediately needed like, for example, reactors, fuel etc; (ii) not expressly deny India anything that it may need in the future; and (iii) leave open, if necessary after further negotiations, access to items currently not supplied. Finally, the 123 agreement should not result in any economic loss to India as a result of any unilateral US action.

    Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act (AEA) requires a 123 agreement to include nine conditions. Of these, one has been exempted for India by the Hyde Act passed last year. The India 123 agreement is required to include the other eight - 123 a(1) and a(3) through a(9). Can a 123 agreement be fashioned within these constraints? It should be possible and that is probably the reason why both countries have been expressing confidence in this regard. This essay concerns itself with the main objections that have been voiced in India and suggests measures to handle them within the parameters outlined above.

    Return Clause

    One of the sticking points has been the provision of Sec. 123 (a)(4) of the Atomic Energy Act (AEA), which gives the United States the "right (in agreements for cooperation with non-nuclear-weapon states) to require the return of any nuclear materials and equipment transferred and any special material produced through the use thereof, if the cooperating country detonates a nuclear explosive device…" India rightly fears that the enforcement of this provision, in full or in part, would result in heavy financial loss to India as a result of the closure of the reactor(s). There are two immediately available avenues to protect India against such loss.

    The first would be for the US President to exempt the 123 agreement from the requirement of Sec. 123(a)(4) - which is allowed under the AEA - with a determination that the "inclusion of such a requirement would be seriously prejudicial to the achievement of the United States non-proliferation objectives or otherwise jeopardize the common defense and security." It would not be difficult to establish that the failure of the 123 agreement, and the consequent isolation of India from global nuclear civil nuclear commerce, would affect US non-proliferation objectives. And the procedure for the Congress to ratify such an agreement would be identical to the procedure for ratification of a 123 agreement with such a clause. If Congress chooses to reject such an agreement, then the blame for the failure of the Indo-US agreement would lie at its feet and not the two governments.

    If, however, for any reason such an action is not considered to be feasible, then the 123 agreement which includes Sec. 123 (a)(4) can be drafted to include one or more of the following two additional clauses. The first would be an unconditional requirement that the United States should take back all the equipment and materials transferred and moreover bear the costs associated with such a transfer! There has never been a case so far of any used reactor being transported to any other place. One cannot conceive any state in the US willing to receive a used reactor, and a foreign one at that, in its territory. In fact India should insist on the United States exercising the right of return of a reactor in case it decides to conduct a nuclear test!

    The second would be to require that the United States compensates India for all the losses it would have to bear on account of the closure of the reactor, including costs associated with the loss of revenue on account of closure, loss on account of replacing the transferred reactor with another indigenous reactor and other costs that may occur as a result of the return of the transferred reactor and materials. Such a clause in the 123 agreement would not be unusual. Art. 12(4) of the US-Japan 123 agreement, dealing exactly with such a possibility states "Before either party takes steps to cease cooperation under this Agreement, to terminate this Agreement, or to require such return, the parties shall consult for the purpose of taking corrective steps and shall carefully consider the economic effects of such actions, taking into account the need to make such other appropriate arrangements as may be required."

    At the time of submission of the 123 agreement with Japan, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission had voiced its reservation over this aspect of the 123 agreement. In response to this reservation the US State Department, with the concurrence of the Department of Energy, had submitted that "The requirement that consideration be given to the economic effects of termination or suspension merely takes account of the reality that both parties have a very large economic investment in their civil nuclear power programs."

    Thus it is possible to allay Indian fears of possible financial loss on account of the United States requiring the return of transferred equipment and materials by inclusion of these two additions or variations thereof.

    India, India-US Relations, Nuclear deal, 123 Agreement, United States of America (USA) Nuclear and Arms Control IDSA COMMENT
    Change the Pattern of Aid to Afghanistan Shanthie Mariet D'Souza June 28, 2007

    Nearly six years after the toppling of the Taliban regime and the completion of the Bonn Process, the situation in Afghanistan continues to remain fragile. A recent visit to provinces in Afghanistan and 'person on the street' narratives in Herat, Kabul, Balkh, Parvan, Baglan, Samangan, Kapisa, and Nangarhar portrays a general sense of resignation amongst the people as they watch their nation sliding backwards. Despite a massive international effort with a total pledge (Grants & Loans) of US $29,304.9 million, the goal of rebuilding a stable Afghanistan remains distant.

    Nearly six years after the toppling of the Taliban regime and the completion of the Bonn Process, the situation in Afghanistan continues to remain fragile. A recent visit to provinces in Afghanistan and 'person on the street' narratives in Herat, Kabul, Balkh, Parvan, Baglan, Samangan, Kapisa, and Nangarhar portrays a general sense of resignation amongst the people as they watch their nation sliding backwards. Despite a massive international effort with a total pledge (Grants & Loans) of US $29,304.9 million, the goal of rebuilding a stable Afghanistan remains distant. According to United Nations and World Bank data, post-Taliban Afghanistan continues to trail at the bottom of every economic indicator list, with life expectancy at 46.4 years, GDP per capita of just $315, 70 per cent of the population below the poverty line and official unemployment rate at a conservative 30 per cent.

    The problem essentially lies in the lack of "unity of effort" on the part of the international community in developing a well-coordinated long-term strategy to strengthen the Afghan government and bring the state back "in" to the development process. In rebuilding conflict-ridden states like Afghanistan, the use of 'alternate delivery mechanisms' like Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) [around 189 INGOs and 367 local NGOs operate in Afghanistan], or direct delivery through embassies and community-based groups plays a crucial role in providing immediate humanitarian relief and assistance. However, for long-term stabilization and reconstruction, it is important to route aid through the state machinery to shore up and enhance the government's legitimacy rather than rely on these parallel structures of governance. In a report last year, the World Bank forewarned of the dangers of an 'aid juggernaut' leading to the creation of a parallel world operating independent of the state, with Afghans not even able to bid for major infrastructure contracts such as building roads.

    Aid delivery and implementation in Afghanistan is characterized by the presence of a multiplicity of actors, both internal and external, which has led to a highly dissipated and fractured nation-building effort. The use of aid as an 'instrument of influence' - delivered with the stamp of the donor's flag to meet the donor's agenda irrespective of the needs of the community - is not only undermining the international aid effort but is also eroding the credibility of the Afghan government. The United States and its development arm USAID, which are mainly responsible for spending money outside of Kabul's budget through the process of contracting and subcontracting to American companies, end up building sub-standard schools as can be witnessed in Kabul.

    In some villages, the discrepancy between a community's actual needs and the aid given to it is far too evident. This was highlighted by residents of a village near Mazar-e-Sharif, whose principal need was for drinking water but were instead bestowed with a school. Donors are merely interested in meeting targets and priorities set out in their national agenda rather than working on the needs of communities. On the other hand, operationalising projects remains problematic and, despite negative perceptions about the ruling dispensation, there is a need to involve the Afghan government through participatory and incentive-based mechanisms for joint coordination and effective implementation.

    The huge gap between short-term high visibility projects, which heightens people's expectations but without any follow-up action in terms of job creation or building an indigenous industrial base is fuelling discontent among the local populace. Moreover, the lack of capabilities in domestic production has compelled Afghanistan to open its domestic market to nearly tariff-free imports from Pakistan, China and Iran. This further strangles its attempts to rebuild the job-creating manufacturing sector. The World Bank estimate of Afghan exports at around $1.6 billion and imports at $3.9 billion projects a sharp trade deficit that makes up over 30 per cent of the GDP.

    There is thus a need to build the local agricultural and industrial base for employment generation and the development of a sustainable economy. Otherwise, Afghanistan would continue to depend on outside aid for decades to come. In addition, leaving the Afghan government out of the loop erodes its credibility among the people and undermines its legitimacy. Firstly, it displays the state's incapacity to deliver basic goods to the people. Secondly, it prevents the Afghan state from extending its reach to the grass root level, while at the same time building up of parallel structures of governance. And finally, it does not impart 'enabling' lessons to the government, which will have to sustain the reconstruction effort after the international forces withdraw.

    India seems to have understood the need to involve the Afghan state in reconstruction. Indian aid is directed primarily through the Afghan government and includes community participation, capacity building and long term development projects. Totalling up to $750 million till 2006, it is contributed in sync with the Afghan government's needs and priorities. Indian aid includes: humanitarian assistance like the delivery of biscuits to school children through the World Food Programme; the building of infrastructure projects like electric transmission lines, a road linking Zaranj and Delaram, etc; small scale projects like the digging of tube wells, building schools and hospitals with community participation; and long-term projects like the construction of the Salma Dam in the Chesht district of western Herat province. The last of these includes the important component of on the job training to Afghan personnel.

    If long-term initiatives and projects are not focused upon, Afghanistan, even the more stable northern part of it, could slide back and go the 'southern way' on the wave of popular discontent. And the Kabul government would find itself assaulted on multiple fronts - armed opposition groups in the north, the Taliban in the south and east, as well as the active interference of neighbours like Pakistan and Iran from the east and the west respectively.

    The need, therefore, is to stabilize Afghanistan through active contributions to the state-building process and thus strengthening the reach and capabilities of the Afghan government. The international community should endeavour to deliver aid through the mechanisms of the Afghan state like the Afghan National Development Strategy (ANDS) and the National Solidarity Programme (NSP). This would help both donors and the Afghan government to prioritise, coordinate and streamline aid delivery.

    Afghanistan South Asia IDSA COMMENT
    Gaza on the Boil S. Samuel C. Rajiv June 21, 2007

    The factional fighting between the Islamist Hamas, represented by the recently dismissed Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip, and the 'moderate' Fatah, headed by the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmoud Abbas, took a turn for the worse on June 14 when Hamas cadres ransacked the Preventive Security Service building, the headquarters of the PA in Gaza City. The renewed fighting between the two factions, which accounted for more than 100 deaths during the week gone by, has already claimed over 600 lives since January 2006.

    The factional fighting between the Islamist Hamas, represented by the recently dismissed Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip, and the 'moderate' Fatah, headed by the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmoud Abbas, took a turn for the worse on June 14 when Hamas cadres ransacked the Preventive Security Service building, the headquarters of the PA in Gaza City. The renewed fighting between the two factions, which accounted for more than 100 deaths during the week gone by, has already claimed over 600 lives since January 2006. That was when Hamas secured its electoral victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections, which set in motion a series of events that culminated in the bloody takeover in Gaza 17 months later.

    Hamas's surprise victory and its refusal to acknowledge Israel as a sovereign entity, renounce violence to achieve its objectives (its 1988 Charter calling for the destruction of Israel not being rescinded), or accept interim peace deals that had already been agreed upon between the Palestinian Authority and Tel Aviv put it on a collision course with Israel and Western powers involved in negotiating a solution to the intractable Palestinian issue. The US and the European powers imposed an aid embargo in March 2006 has been badly hurting the Palestinian economy and preventing the proper functioning of the administration.

    In the meantime, ill will and clashes between the Hamas and Fatah grew. The latest round of fighting not only marked the failure of the Egyptian-backed truce brokered in May 2007 between the two factions, but also the dissolution of the national unity government formed in March 2007, following the February 8 Mecca agreement between Abbas and Hamas's leader-in-exile, Khaled Meshaal, brokered under Saudi auspices. The Saudi-brokered initiative was aimed at ending the rising internal violence and facilitate the easing of Western sanctions imposed in the wake of Hamas's victory.

    Abbas, operating from his West Bank headquarters in Ramallah, reacted to the Hamas takeover by declaring a state of emergency, which enabled him to bypass constitutional limits on his authority subject to a Hamas-controlled parliament, dismissed the serving Prime Minister, Haniyeh, and installed Salam Fayyad in his place. Fayyad was the Finance Minister in the short-lived national unity government formed in March. Haniyeh has refused to accept his dismissal and has accused Abbas of participating in a US-led plot to overthrow him. He has, however, ruled out the setting up of a separate Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip and reiterated the Hamas's position of a Palestinian state within the borders of 1967 to include Gaza and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

    Israel, which considered the 'moderate' Fatah faction a better negotiating partner over the radical Islamist Hamas, has been leaning towards the Fatah to facilitate the latter's establishment of its dominance in the Palestinian domestic stakes. In the aftermath of Hamas's 'coup', it has concentrated its efforts on boosting the position and legitimacy of Abbas and has pledged to release a substantial part of the frozen tax revenues to the PA government (Israel had been withholding close to US $700 million of the same since the Hamas's electoral victory). In the short term, it has also considered dropping food aid to ease the humanitarian problems of the 1.5 million Palestinians in Gaza due to the closure of all border crossings into Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also stated that Israel would give "serious consideration" for proposals to station international peacekeepers in Gaza along the international border with Egypt as a measure to cut off arms and supplies to the Hamas. The EU's Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana also voiced support to the idea and stated that the EU could consider participating in such an international force. On the other hand, the concrete administrative division between Gaza and the West Bank seems to offer a unique opportunity for Israel to enforce a political solution favourable to it, by further isolating Hamas. This was attested to by Tzipi Livni, Israel's Foreign Minister. Washington is also pressing Egypt to shut the tunnels Hamas depends upon to smuggle in cash and arms.

    In the wake of the recent bloody developments, regional and international sympathies seem to lie clearly with President Abbas and his Fatah faction. The Quartet of interlocutors involved in the Middle East negotiations, including the United Nations, United States, Russia, and the European Union, have reiterated their continued support to Abbas. While UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged international support for Abbas's efforts "to restore law and order", the US lifted its aid embargo on the Palestinian Authority and pledged to immediately release $40 million to ease the suffering of the population and bolster Abbas's credentials. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice vowed not to leave "one and a half million Palestinians at the mercy of terrorist organizations" and stressed that the Middle East was confronted with a fundamental choice "between violent extremism on the one hand, and tolerance and responsibility on the other." Reports also suggested that the US has in fact been arming Fatah in its fight against the Hamas.

    While aiming to isolate Hamas economically, militarily, and diplomatically in Gaza, Washington has also hoped to speed up the dialogue process between Abbas and Olmert. In his meeting with Olmert in Washington on June 19, President Bush termed Abbas the "president of all Palestinians" and promised to cooperate with him "to provide the Palestinians with a real, genuine chance for a state of their own". On his part, in a telephone conversation with Bush earlier in the week, Abbas expressed his intent to "resume the political process" and keep political channels open.

    The Arab League Foreign Ministers, meeting in Cairo on June 16, also came out in support of Abbas and called on the rival Palestinian factions "to immediately halt internal fighting and stop shedding Palestinian blood" and to keep unity in the Gaza Strip, eastern Jerusalem and the West Bank. Saudi Arabia, currently chairing the League, heavily criticized the factional fighting. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal expressed regret at the factions who had "vowed in the holy lands and swore on the holy Quran not to fight again".

    Egypt closed its representative office in Gaza City in the aftermath of the Hamas takeover, which it condemned very strongly. Cairo has always had a tenuous relationship with Hamas as it considered the Palestinian group to be close to the Islamic Brotherhood, an anti-establishment entity in Egypt which also aims to establish Islamic theocracies across the Arab world. The fact that Iran also supports and sponsors Hamas does not go down well with the Arab states in the region. The Mecca accords in early February were in fact seen as an effort by these states to seize the initiative and reduce the Iranian foothold on the Palestinian issue. An aide to Abbas also accused Iran of encouraging Hamas to employ violence to take control of the Gaza Strip and alleged that Tehran supported what he termed 'non-democratic' groups in Palestine, Lebanon, as well as Iraq.

    Hamas's takeover of Gaza City on June 14 dented the near-term hopes of establishing a single Palestinian State encompassing the four million people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The subsequent actions taken by Israel, the United States, the EU, the Arab League and Egypt, in bolstering Abbas on the West Bank and further tightening of the screws in the Gaza Strip, could lead to further bitterness among the 1.5 million Palestinians there. It remains to be seen whether Gazans would be swayed towards the leadership of Abbas and the opportunities he can provide, given the vast international backing he has obtained. This will particularly depend on the extent to which he can provide good governance and rein in the rampant corruption, which had contributed to the PA's alienation from the population in the first place. If he cannot do this in an appropriate time frame, the populace could become more radicalized, thus adding to the cadres and support base of Hamas, the outcome which Israel and the Western interlocutors are striving to prevent. Even worse, if Hamas fails to quickly restore order and provide reasonable governance, it could attract recruits to the Al Qaeda and help it achieve a firmer foothold in the region.

    Abbas, meanwhile, has rejected Hamas calls for negotiations to find a political consensus to resolve the imbroglio and has accused them of being "murderous terrorists". Hamas leaders have also warned against a crackdown on their members and sympathizers in the West Bank. It seems that a lot more than rhetoric is needed to wash away the bad blood that has flown and, more importantly, prevent a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

    Israel, Hamas, Gaza Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN IDSA COMMENT
    The Caspian Pipeline Deal and Russia’s Energy Strategy in Central Asia Meena Singh Roy June 11, 2007

    Vladimir Putin’s week-long visit to Central Asia in the second week of May 2007 was aimed at courting Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as part of Russia’s future energy strategy in the region. Behind the visit lay the Kremlin’s desire to create a natural gas cartel in the region and maintain its monopoly over gas supplies to Europe. Moreover, despite its vast resources of oil and gas, Russia may actually face domestic shortages, at least of gas, because much of its own resources are in remote areas and need heavy investments to be made productive.

    Vladimir Putin’s week-long visit to Central Asia in the second week of May 2007 was aimed at courting Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as part of Russia’s future energy strategy in the region. Behind the visit lay the Kremlin’s desire to create a natural gas cartel in the region and maintain its monopoly over gas supplies to Europe. Moreover, despite its vast resources of oil and gas, Russia may actually face domestic shortages, at least of gas, because much of its own resources are in remote areas and need heavy investments to be made productive. This makes Central Asian energy sources important to Moscow.

    Both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are rich in natural resources and are increasingly exposed to Chinese and Western influence. After the sudden death of President Saparmurat Niyazov, Moscow was keen to ensure that Turkmenistan’s foreign policy was oriented towards it. More importantly, it wished to further strengthen its dominance over the country’s gas supplies. Russia has had a near monopoly on Turkmen Gas and, consequently, any success for the United States and Europe in that country’s energy sector would automatically mean a weakening of Moscow’s hold. Here, it should be noted that the new Turkmen President, Berdymukhamedov, met executives of Chevron in the first week of June 2007 and invited them to participate in oil extraction efforts beneath the Caspian Sea. In addition, Berdymukhamedov has also stated that plans for a Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) – a Western project – have not been completely dropped. Like his Turkmen counterpart, the Kazakh president has also said that he does not rule out consideration of the TCP option and will transport oil and gas through a route that is more profitable.

    Today, the competition over Central Asian energy resources is by no means limited to the West and Russia. China is emerging as an important player in this game and it is pursuing an aggressive energy policy in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. It has already built an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan and signed an energy deal with Turkmenistan to supply gas by 2009. More importantly, it does not need Russia to access Central Asian energy resources.

    The desire to strengthen its dominance, coupled with Western and Chinese attempts to make inroads into the Central Asian energy scene, is pushing the Russian leadership into pursuing a vigorous energy strategy in the region. One aspect of this strategy was Russia’s signing of a landmark deal with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan on May 12, 2007. Under this deal, the three countries agreed to build a natural gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea Coast to carry gas from Turkmenistan to Europe via Kazakhstan and Russia and to upgrade the Prikaspiiski natural gas pipeline. In addition, the three states, along with Uzbekistan, agreed to modernise Central Asia’s energy infrastructure. A treaty to build the new pipeline is scheduled to be signed in September 2007, while actual construction is slated to begin in mid-2008.

    Putin was reported to have said that the pipeline would carry 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually by 2012, while the Russian Energy Minister stated that it would eventually carry 30 bcm a year. Moreover, once it is fully upgraded, the proposed pipeline is expected to carry roughly 90 bcm of gas annually. Though the cost of the pipeline has not been announced, ITAR-TASS News Agency has cited a 2003 estimate of about US $1 billion. It has been agreed that both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will finance the construction of their respective portions of the pipeline without Russian assistance.

    In the West, the deal is being viewed by most energy experts as a great advance by Russia in the race for acquiring access to Central Asian gas and a serious blow to the US and European Union proposed energy projects in the Caspian Basin. The EU has grand plans to diversify its sources of energy, a significant percentage of which comes from Russia today. It completed the construction of the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) in May 2006, which follows the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route, crossing Azerbaijan (442 km) and Georgia (248 km) and terminates at Erzurum in the east of Turkey. Once the Shah Deniz field reaches its production level, the pipeline would become a crucial source of energy for Europe.

    Concerned about their over reliance on Russia, the European Union in particular has also been trying to develop an alternative route of energy flow from Central Asia to Europe that would bypass Russia. Having constructed the SCP, the EU has been hoping that the TCP – a pipeline called Nabucco – would eventually be linked up with it. The TCP is supposed to carry Central Asian gas via the Caucasus and Turkey to Europe. However, the latest deal between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan seems to have rendered this pipeline a less viable option and a more difficult proposition.

    American experts view the deal as a Russian step towards creating a natural gas cartel, which would also simultaneously help Moscow in realising its other geopolitical goals –wrecking western pipeline plans and increasing Central Asian dependence on Russia. Reacting to the trilateral deal, the US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said on May 14, 2007 that “this is not good for Europe” and “Europe needs to diversify its energy sources.” For eventually when the deal comes through, Russia will control the bulk of Central Asian energy exports and especially that of Turkmenistan. This is a clear victory for Moscow and would enable it to maintain its dominance over the European gas market. At the same time, the deal is a serious blow to European and American energy interests and plans to build an alternate pipeline that bypasses Russia. More importantly, there are growing Western concerns about Moscow using its energy clout for political purposes, which it demonstrated in 2006 and again in 2007 by briefly halting gas supplies to some of its neighbours, which in turn reduced the flow of gas to EU countries. Such concerns are unlikely to abate despite assurances given by Putin that the deal meant “more supplies of energy resources to Europe and the world’s markets,” which the Kazakh president sought to reinforce by characterising the deal as “a pure pragmatic commercial project.”

    Another consequence of the trilateral pact is that China’s agreement with Turkmenistan for the annual supply of 30 bcm of gas starting in 2009 seems to be in danger. This is in addition to the projection that China’s dependence on Russia for gas could grow in the future. Russian leverage thus seems all set to increase vis-a-vis both the West and China.

    Russia also tends to benefit financially from the deal. It currently pays $100 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas to Turkmenistan, which is subsequently resold to Europe at $250 per 1,000 cubic metres. Moscow stands to almost double its imports from Central Asian gas from roughly 50 bcm to about 90 bcm. It is important to note here that Russia has succeeded in roping in Central Asian states into its energy strategy because it has charged lower than world market prices for their use of Russian pipelines to export gas and oil. At the same time, unlike the West, which has sought to link its investments in the energy sector to the promotion of democracy, Russia does not demand any political reforms in these states. Moreover, past linkages make it easier for Moscow to consolidate its position in the region.

    One aspect that is worth noting here is Turkmenistan’s conviction that it has enough gas for projects with Iran, China, Afghanistan and India, apart from the commitment it has entered into with Russia through this latest deal. In contrast, energy experts contend that Ashgabat would find it difficult to simultaneously supply gas for European projects, China and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. If Turkmenistan has to meet Chinese and South Asian demand while maintaining its Ukrainian and Russian deliveries, it will have to double its production. It is not clear whether the country can increase production, nor is it even clear how much gas reserves it actually has.

    One thing that is however clear is that Russia has managed to strengthen its hold over energy transit routes to Europe and is likely to remain the main source of energy supplies to the continent in the foreseeable future.

    Kazakhstan, Russia, Energy Cooperation, Turkmenistan Europe and Eurasia IDSA COMMENT
    Surge in Infiltration Attempts Across the Line of Control in J&K B. S. Sachar June 07, 2007

    A surge in infiltration attempts by heavily armed terrorists across the Line of Control (LoC) in J&K has been reported in the last two months. With the snow receding on the Pir Panjal range of mountains along the LoC and the passes opening up, terrorists waiting in training camps in Pakistan/PoK are attempting to sneak into the State. The period April to July is generally a peak period of infiltration.

    A surge in infiltration attempts by heavily armed terrorists across the Line of Control (LoC) in J&K has been reported in the last two months. With the snow receding on the Pir Panjal range of mountains along the LoC and the passes opening up, terrorists waiting in training camps in Pakistan/PoK are attempting to sneak into the State. The period April to July is generally a peak period of infiltration. However, the number of infiltration attempts that have been made by terrorist groups in the last two months has been unprecedented, and it sends an alarming signal of Pakistan's intentions. According to recent reports, there has been a two-fold jump in infiltration in April and May this year as compared to the last two years. The Army has successfully intercepted a number of these groups though some seem to have inevitably succeeded in getting through undetected. It has been estimated that 79 terrorists managed to infiltrate in April 2007, compared to 27 in April 2006. A majority of the terrorists killed by the Army while attempting infiltration have been identified as foreign terrorists (FTs). The ISI, which is behind all this, is presumably aiming to push in heavily armed and better-trained Pakistan-based terrorists in order to regain leverage over militancy in the State.

    In 2007 so far, infiltration is also being attempted through routes that have traditionally not been used like the Sunderbani Sector of Jammu region. This has been a consequence of the Army's success in plugging the traditional routes used by terrorists, which has forced them to take less frequented routes to avoid detection and reduce casualties. The likelihood of infiltration through the IB Sector of Jammu region also appears strong. One such attempt has already been foiled by the Border Security Force on May 15, 2007. Pakistan, taking advantage of the ceasefire, has constructed defence works right up to the International Border, which provides the additional advantage of aiding the infiltration of terrorists into India.

    The modus operandi generally followed for infiltration is that ISI monitors the setting up of launch pads close to the LoC, in co-ordination with local army formations, based on weather conditions and assessed infiltration routes. Terrorists are brought a day or two prior to the launch to the designated launch pad and reconnaissance is carried out to ascertain areas where there are gaps in the fence or where it is damaged or not illuminated. The infiltrators are thereafter led by guides or alternately they use GPS and maps to move to the selected crossing site. In the training camps they are taught techniques for breaching the fence using insulated ladders, blankets and wire cutters, besides other means. After successful infiltration, they move to the chosen rendezvous before daybreak and lie low during daylight hours. After establishing contact with their mentors, they move to the rugged hinterland or to towns either with the help of local guides or by using GPS and maps, to join other members of their Tanzeem.

    A number of reasons can be attributed to the increase in infiltration levels this year over corresponding figures of the last two years. First, terrorists especially FTs, have suffered heavy attrition at the hands of the security forces (SF) in the last few years and early replacements are crucial to continue the so-called jihad. Second, local militants are increasingly shunning the path of militancy and surrendering in large numbers to the SF, both at the LoC and in the hinterland, revealing networks, modus operandi and arms caches. Trend analysis of surrenders at the LoC has revealed that militants languishing in training camps in Pakistan/PoK wish to return back and join the mainstream. Their family members contact the Army who facilitate the surrenders at designated points at the LoC. Compared to about 200 militants who surrendered in 2006, 72 have been reported to have already surrendered this year, including 10 who surrendered to the Chief Minister on June 05, 2007 at Doda. This has dealt a heavy blow to militancy and it is likely that more FTs are being inducted to take over leadership, boost morale and enforce discipline in the ranks of the local terrorists.

    The hike in infiltration without a corresponding spike in violence levels in the State reveals a deeper game plan. Though it is true that newly infiltrating terrorists take time to settle down and become active, there are enough resident terrorists to launch attacks and ensure that the conditions in the state remain disturbed. In April and May last year, the level of violence was much higher and even tourists were targeted. One reason for the reduced scale of violence this year could be that terrorists have been instructed by their masters to maintain a low profile in the hope that this would further encourage the Indian government to reduce the number of troops in J&K.

    Pakistan will continue its policy of supporting cross border terrorism to keep the pot of militancy boiling in J&K. It would also aim to intensify the scale of violence in the run-up to next year's elections in the State. The coming few months are critical and the gains of the last few years must not be lost. The SF will need to deploy maximum strength backed by good intelligence to prevent infiltration across the LoC/IB and track and neutralise terrorists who have managed to get across. Lines of communication have to be properly sanitised to allow unhindered flow of military and civilian traffic. A strong message needs to be sent to Pakistan to wind down the infrastructure of support to terrorism on its soil and to stop abetting cross border terrorism.

    Jammu and Kashmir, Infiltration Terrorism & Internal Security IDSA COMMENT
    Ethanol and India's Energy Security Priyadarshini Singh June 07, 2007

    With 14.1 per cent growth (2007) in the manufacturing sector, 14 per cent (2006) in the service sector, and an agriculture sector that is beginning to finally look up, the Indian economy needs all the energy it can get to sustain the growth momentum. However, enshrouded in the figures of the galloping Indian economy is the precarious energy situation that the country faces.

    With 14.1 per cent growth (2007) in the manufacturing sector, 14 per cent (2006) in the service sector, and an agriculture sector that is beginning to finally look up, the Indian economy needs all the energy it can get to sustain the growth momentum. However, enshrouded in the figures of the galloping Indian economy is the precarious energy situation that the country faces.

    Coal comprised half of India's 15.734 EJ1 (exajoule)/325 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) primary energy consumption in 2004, used for running most of its power plants. Crude Oil and its products, which fuel the transport sector, contributed 36 per cent. Natural Gas, used mainly in the fertiliser sector, had a share of 8 per cent, while renewable energy (including Nuclear Energy) comprised a miniscule 4 per cent in the total energy mix. It is thus evident that India is primarily a coal-based economy. More importantly, even the most optimistic of energy scenarios do not predict any changes to this status up to 2031-32. Heavy reliance on coal also means that the Indian economy is incurring the costs of collateral damage to the environment.

    The second more worrisome aspect of our energy economy is the reliance on crude oil and its products. India imports 73 per cent of its crude oil requirement, and this is expected to reach 90 to 93 per cent by 2031-32.2 It is also worth noting that most of our oil imports come from the politically unstable countries of West Asia and Nigeria, rendering our supply security precarious. Further, as crude oil crosses the US $60 a barrel mark, the Rs. 1600 billion bill for crude oil imports will face some drastic upward revision.

    Evidently, any alternate to such an expensive and environmentally degrading energy mix with insecure supply options would be welcome. The nationwide launch of a 5 per cent EBP (ethanol blended petrol) programme in Hyderabad, in April 2007, attains marked importance in the current energy scenario of India.

    Ethanol can be made directly through fermentation of sugar or from the starches of corn, potatoes, etc. that are first broken down to simple sugars. Apart from being extensively used in the pharmaceutical, industrial and liquor sectors, ethanol can either be an additive to petrol or used directly to fire locomotives. Petrol doped with ethanol (up to 24 per cent) can be used without making any modification to the vehicle engine. Apart form being a renewable fuel supply, ethanol is also environment friendly. By aiding a more complete combustion of the fuel, EBP results in lesser emissions.

    Among all sources of bio-energy, ethanol has the maximum global presence. The global production of alcohol in 2005 was 41 million kilolitres of which 70 per cent was used as fuel.3 Reeling under the pressure of the spike in international crude oil prices and the increasingly unstable political situation in West Asia, there has been an increased international momentum towards EBP.

    India is the fourth largest producer of ethanol in the world. Unlike Brazil, where ethanol is produced directly from sugar cane juice, and the United States, which uses corn for production, India produces ethanol from bagasse. Bagasse, or molasses, is the waste product after the extraction and refining of sugar from sugar cane. Ethanol production in India therefore has a marked advantage as its production could potentially leave sugar prices unaffected. Further, by blending petrol with 10 per cent bio-fuel, 80 million litres of petrol could be saved annually in the country.4 Apart from increasing our energy security, Ethanol production can also generate rural employment.

    In India, Ethanol made its foray into the transport sector as a fuel additive in 2001. The Government of India launched three EBP pilot projects, the first in Uttar Pradesh followed by two others in Maharashtra. Subsequently, though a policy for 5 per cent EBP was announced and launched in nine sugar producing states from January 1, 2003, the programme had to be suspended till 2005 because of insufficient ethanol supply caused by drought conditions. The bumper monsoon in the following year boosted sugarcane production and the programme was revived again.

    This seemingly harmless policy decision, however, calls for more caution than is forthcoming. A recent report by the UN on Sustainable Bio-energy is very timely for India, as is at the threshold of developing its nascent Bio-energy Industry. Concerns regarding the EBP project in India can be clubbed into two categories. The UN report expatiates the first of these concerns, which relates to the efficacy of the EBP programme for a country like India. This includes the impact of ethanol production on food security, water security and land availability.

    The second relates to the feasibility of the EBP programme given the current method of production for consistent supply. Unlike Brazil, India does not possess sufficient land or water resources to divert from food to cash crops. Food and water security ought to be the primary focus of our policymaking. There is no reason to believe that once fiscal and financial incentives are provided to the sugarcane industry for ethanol production, land use patterns will not shift in favour of sugarcane. Further, sugarcane is a relatively water intensive crop,5 placing additional pressure on the country's irrigation system. It will also render the EBP programme to supply insecurities considering that Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the monsoon. As mentioned earlier, the EBP programme was significantly hit during the years 2003-04 and 2004-05 because the sugarcane crop was affected by conditions of drought and famine.

    As Ethanol in India is produced from molasses, questions have been raised whether there will be sufficient quantities of it to cover the requirements for the 5 per cent EBP programme, which is to be later on raised to 10 per cent. The Integrated Energy policy report of India points out that the liquor industry retains control over domestic molasses based ethanol production due to which ethanol is simply inadequate to cover the domestic energy needs. Interestingly, the report highlights the fact that India has been a net importer of Ethanol since 2002, with the largest imports coming from Brazil in 2005, an aspect not adequately highlighted in the latest government reports and releases.

    There are different figures available for India's ethanol production. While the official figures indicate sufficient availability, other sources indicate the contrary. Dr. N.A. Ramaiah, former director of the National Sugar Institute and of the Deccan Sugar Institute, points out that of the 130 crore litres of Ethanol available, 90 to 95 crore litres are being utilised for production of value-added chemicals such as acetic acid and potable liquor.6 These figures also find mention in the June 2006 GAIN (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition) report of USAID on Bio-fuels production in India, which specifically questions the adequate availability of Ethanol when the programme enters the 10 per cent EBP phase. The Director General of ICRISAT, Dr. William D. Dhar, in a message dated September 2006 on the company website also alludes to the same conclusion. He avers that the production of ethanol from molasses is not sufficient to meet the needs of the EBP programme. The question then is: In case of supply shortfall, would fuel ethanol be produced directly from sugarcane juice as is being done in Brazil?

    These questions have to be seriously considered by policymakers before framing long-term policy on ethanol production and consumption. It is noteworthy that ethanol can also be produced from sweet sorghum, a little known dry-land crop. China has an active ethanol programme based on sweet sorghum yields. For long term supply security, it is advisable that sources of ethanol production be diversified. While molasses can supply one part of it, crops like sweet sorghum and waste products like rice straws7 should also be promoted to provide consistency of supply. Policies that aim to promote production of ethanol from sugarcane juice directly must be undertaken with caution, for it can adversely affect sugar prices and land use patterns in favour of sugar cane.

    The nascent nature of the Indian bio-fuels industry provides it the marked advantage of utilising the experience of other countries such as Brazil and the United states before forming its legal-policy foundations. A well structured and decentralised bio-fuels policy that takes into account local climatic, demographic and agricultural factors can kill the proverbial two birds, namely rural unemployment and energy dependence, with one arrow. The Special Secretary Ministry of New & Renewable Energy Dr. S.K. Chopra, at a Conference on Bio fuels & Optimum Utilisation of Agriculture in April 2007, informed that a comprehensive long-term bio fuels policy is expected to be in place in the next six months. The policy will have to strike the delicate balance of achieving the socio-economic goals of food security, water security, unemployment and those of energy security. But whether it is able to do so remains to be seen.

    • 1. http://www.iaea.org/inisnkm/nkm/aws/eedrb/data/IN-enc.html (accessed on June 7, 2007).
    • 2. Government of India, Integrated Energy Policy Report (New Delhi, August 2006), Table 3.8, p. 45.
    • 3. Sameer Mittal, Financial Express, May 15, 2007.
    • 4. "Distillery Unit all set to produce Ethanol from sweet Sorghum," The Hindu, March 28, 2006.
    • 5. In comparison to paddy, sugarcane cultivation requires less water.
    • 6. The Hindu Business Line, June 15, 2006.
    • 7. The suggestion of possible ethanol production from rice straws finds reference in the Integrated Energy Policy Report of India, August 2006.
    India, Bio-energy, Energy Security Non-Traditional Security IDSA COMMENT
    Civil Aviation: A Forgotten Facet of Air Power Ramesh Phadke May 18, 2007

    Indian aviation has been witnessing spectacular growth in the past five years. Private low-cost airlines have proliferated and the average middle class Indian today aspires to fly rather than use rail or road transport to travel to major destinations. This has also resulted in the growth of inland tourism, and with the economy registering an impressive 8 per cent growth, this trend is likely to continue. Indian skies are now buzzing with activity.

    Indian aviation has been witnessing spectacular growth in the past five years. Private low-cost airlines have proliferated and the average middle class Indian today aspires to fly rather than use rail or road transport to travel to major destinations. This has also resulted in the growth of inland tourism, and with the economy registering an impressive 8 per cent growth, this trend is likely to continue. Indian skies are now buzzing with activity.

    Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is upbeat about its future growth. All government and private airline operators have placed huge orders for modern aircraft. Boeing is reportedly setting up a Maintenance & Repair Organisation (MRO) hub at Nagpur. There are reports of at least one US Flight Training School setting up shop in India in the near future. Foreign companies and MNCs are setting up Joint Ventures for manufacture of aviation related products. It seems to be an altogether promising scenario.

    There is, however, a problem. The human resources element of this growth has been lagging behind. Many operators face or will soon face an acute shortage of flight crews. While the requirement for cabin crews and airport management/ticketing staff is slowly being met, that for pilots, Air Traffic Control officers, flight dispatchers, engineers and technicians is not a simple matter. This is because India simply does not have adequate numbers of functioning flying clubs or flight schools to train the large numbers of pilots needed over the next decade. The recent increase in the retirement age of commercial pilots from 60 to 65 years will only help partially since an ‘over-sixty’ pilot has to necessarily fly with a ‘fully qualified’ captain of under sixty. The result: a very large number of expatriates from the US, Europe and Latin America are flying in Indian skies, with some of them barely able to speak the English language. At last count, Jet Airways employed 111 foreigners (expats) out of its total of 685 pilots, while Air Deccan had 75 foreigners out of 250 on its rolls.

    There is no solution in sight and young people aspiring for a career in aviation do not know whom to turn to. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), through the July 06 issue of its Civil Aviation Requirement (CAR) notification, has made the training of pilots a little more difficult and this is when the number of students passing the examinations is abysmally low. Effective July 2007, only those candidates who have a minimum of 50 hours of flying experience, gained in a DGCA-recognised flight school, will be eligible to appear for the Commercial Pilots Licence (CPL) Examination that the DGCA conducts every quarter and until then only those who already have the DGCA computer number, i.e., those already registered but failed, appeared in the January and April 2007 examinations. The ostensible reason for this new requirement is to ensure that a prospective pilot has some rudimentary flying experience and also the basic knowledge of aviation and receives ground training from a DGCA-recognised flight school. The unfortunate ground reality, however, is that there is no such school in the country except the Indira Gandhi Rashtriya Udaan Academy (IGRUA) located at Rae Bareilly in UP. Started over two decades ago, the IGRUA has of late been facing a shortage of flying instructors and other training staff. The period of CPL training is two years while most of the flight schools abroad conduct the same in six to eight months.

    Most of the government aided and private flying clubs in India are also in a similar state, since the new low-cost airlines have mopped up every available Indian pilot below the age of sixty and only very few of these Flying Clubs have two or more competent and experienced instructors, some with indifferent records. The huge rush for flying has allegedly caused some undesirable practices such as payments under the table, over-logging of flying hours and poor quality of training. The DGCA has traditionally authorised three IAF Medical Establishments to conduct the ‘Class One’ Medical Examination for aircrews. With thousands aspiring for a CPL, the earliest medical appointment takes more than eight months. Leave aside meeting future needs, our airlines are likely to face a severe pilot crunch as more and more pilots retire in the next few years or if ex-pats go back.

    In decades gone by, when Indian aviation activity was at a low key, the few Flying Clubs and a ‘generous’ supply, every two to three years, of some ten to fifteen qualified and experienced pilots from the Indian Air Force (IAF) used to adequately meet the needs of commercial aviation (read Air India & Indian Airlines). The government-owned airlines were happy as they did not have to spend on costly ab initio training; flying clubs were happy graduating a few pilots every two to three years; and the IAF equally happy to get rid of senior Wing Commanders and Group Captains who could no longer be fitted into the pyramidal career structure. Typically, a flying instructor in a club was happy with a monthly salary of around Rs. 20-25,000 if he was lucky. Things have, however, drastically changed in the recent past with domestic airlines offering salaries of over Rs. 2-3 lakh a month. As a result, all flying instructors have joined them.

    So, with no DGCA authorised/recognised ground school and no flying instructors in the country’s flying clubs, how do we train commercial pilots? The IAF is reportedly running short of pilots and can at best release a dozen pilots every year.

    The really keen and rich Indian youngster goes to Canada, the United States, Australia or New Zealand, Malaysia and the Philippines, finishes his or her 200 hours of flying training in some six to eight months, passes the necessary qualifying tests, obtains a US FAA or European JAA CPL, returns to India, appears for a ‘composite’ test to get an Indian DGCA endorsement and is then hopefully picked up by a domestic airline. But this costs over Rs. 20 lakh, with all the hassle of getting a visa, security clearance, residential permit and the like, something only a rich well-connected kid can achieve. Another hurdle is that banks are reluctant to give loans for flight training, as it is not approved by the All India Council of Technical Training (AICTE). More importantly, it also means that India loses this business when it actually has all the necessary facilities and infrastructure.

    Two possible options come to mind here.

    First, in India, the IAF arguably has the best facilities for flight training and produces some of the most competent pilots in the world. There are many qualified and medically fit IAF flight instructors who, after retirement at 50 to 60, are by and large unemployed. If the DGCA can in one stroke extend the retirement age of commercial pilots to 65 when they are responsible for carrying some 200 fare-paying passengers in a complex airliner, it can easily allow the good old medically fit ex-IAF Qualified Flying Instructor (QFI) with over 3000 hours of flying experience on a variety of transports and fighter aircraft, to fly up to the age of 65 with a single pupil in a Cessna-152 or similar light aircraft that flies no higher that 5000 feet and no faster that 200 km per hour, in and around a quiet airfield or on a cross-country flight of a few hundred kilometres. But it is unfair to expect this old instructor to obtain a CPL; existing rules permit some relaxation. Such a dispensation may add, at a very conservative estimate, some 50 to 100 desperately needed flying instructors to the various flying clubs that already have over four to six aircraft each. On average, each instructor could very easily train six to eight pilots every year. Surely, 800 to 1200 new pilots is not a small number. This would also reduce the cost of training and avoid all the hassle of training abroad. The current shortage is estimated to be around 1000 pilots a year.

    Second, the IAF could help in a novel way. It has many airfields such as Thanjavur in Tamil Nadu, Bihta in Bihar and Bakshi-ka-Talab in Uttar Pradesh, where flying activity is always at a low key if not altogether non-existent. But each of these bases has adequate infrastructure such as runways, hangars, ATC, Indian Oil Corporation depot, office and living accommodation and messing arrangements and sports facilities. Some of these are known as Care & Maintenance Units (C&MU) and that is exactly what they are. These are so far away from sensitive operational areas that there is no danger of national security being jeopardised. All that the IAF and the government have to do is to invoke the already existing ‘Auxiliary Air Force Reserve’ provisions and depute some ten serving IAF flying instructors and co-opt another ten retired officers with the necessary qualifications and train a batch of 40 to 50 civilian candidates every six months and charge them at reasonable market rates. This would not only put to rightful use facilities that are already available but would be a new beginning in what I would call reverse out-sourcing. At first glance, this may sound somewhat impracticable (the IAF & DGCA are bound to raise serious objections), but serious introspection would show that such a scheme is not only eminently doable but is also desirable. Such an arrangement can also help train ATC officers and technicians — including ex-IAF personnel proceeding on ‘discharge’ and make them fit for civilian employment. The DGCA could help by waiving certain requirements of flying ‘currency’ since all the instructors have considerable flying and instructional experience. Unlike air force flying, civil/commercial flight training does not involve aerobatics or risky tactical flying exercises and can very easily be managed by retired air force officers. The IAF could also earmark a small number of instructors desirous of leaving the IAF, for a two-year long tenure in such a flight training school before they are released, thus helping those not fitting into the career pyramid of the IAF to leave with dignity.

    What is, however, urgently needed is a comprehensive dialogue between the IAF, Ministry of Defence (MoD), the DGCA and the Ministry of Civil Aviation. A ‘tie-up’ with private airline operators for ‘campus’ selection and perhaps an ‘apprentice pilot scheme’ under which the airlines subsidise the cost of training and assure jobs to the young CPL graduates, may also be feasible.

    To be counted among the advanced countries of the world, India must first become an ‘air power’ nation. The classical and universally acceptable definition of air power goes like this. “The air power of a country is its ability to impose its will on others through the medium of air and includes the nation’s total air assets, civil and commercial, private and public, potential and existing.” Further, it is well known that this air power is indivisible. It is time the decision makers in the MoD, IAF, DGCA and Civil Aviation Ministry sat up and took notice. Else, a great opportunity would be lost and as usual India will muddle through but at great expense

    India IDSA COMMENT
    Galileo in Crisis Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay May 16, 2007

    In October 2006, when India decided to pull out of the ambitious Galileo project, a global navigation system jointly developed by the European Commission (EC) and the European Space Agency (ESA), some Indian observers had expressed surprise that a long-drawn negotiation process within the ambit of the EU-India Strategic Partnership came to naught. Envisaged to be the most accurate and sophisticated navigation system thus far, the Galileo project has attracted the attention of developed and developing nations mainly because of its civilian focus and near perfect resolution.

    In October 2006, when India decided to pull out of the ambitious Galileo project, a global navigation system jointly developed by the European Commission (EC) and the European Space Agency (ESA), some Indian observers had expressed surprise that a long-drawn negotiation process within the ambit of the EU-India Strategic Partnership came to naught. Envisaged to be the most accurate and sophisticated navigation system thus far, the Galileo project has attracted the attention of developed and developing nations mainly because of its civilian focus and near perfect resolution. It was not only a prestigious project of the European Union to showcase its technological capability, but was also a reflection of the EU’s simultaneous aspiration to demonstrate independence in this sector.

    However, if the developments of last week are any indication, it appears that this prestigious project is for the time being caught in a crisis. Already, the concerned EU officials under the current German presidency have expressed deep dissatisfaction over the progress of the project. Similarly, the press release of May 11 by Peter Hintze, Co-ordinator of Aerospace Policy and Parliamentary State Secretary at the German Ministry of Economics and Technology, is also significant in that Hintze lamented the failure of month-long negotiations within the European consortium even as he underscored the urgency of proceeding and completing the project in a globally competitive scenario. In the meantime, it has also been decided that henceforth EU member nations would fund the project, which was hitherto the task of a consortium composed of some major European firms. A revised proposal to enliven the project is on the anvil, which would also set a new deadline in the coming weeks. However, the project has missed its target of 2008 and a new deadline would not only incur additional cost but also lead to delayed entry into a highly competitive global market where all other nations have either started modernising their existing systems or have initiated joint ventures.

    Since its conceptualisation, Galileo was a political project, which was additionally meant to serve various objectives. Firstly, it reflects, like other European projects, the overlapping participation of non-EU members of the ESA like Norway, Switzerland and Canada, as well as the independence of the European Space Agency. The project was bound to experience a complex decision-making process, like in other areas of the EU.

    Secondly, European Commission Strategy Papers (e.g., European Space Policy: “ESDP and Space” of November 16, 2004, Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES): From Concept to Reality of November 10, 2005, and the latest European Space Policy of April 26, 2007) have given sufficient indications that policy makers saw Galileo as serving multiple objectives. For instance, it is considered to be an instrument of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) as well as a tool to develop and intensify the EU’s external relations with other nations that wish to participate in the project. From the commercial point of view, the EU hoped to capture a big slice of the global space industry, which, in 2005, was worth US $180 billion and is projected to increase annually by 15 per cent. At present, ESA member states invest $4 billion annually and a similar amount overall in their respective national programmes. For its part, the European Commission has decided to invest $3.78 billion in space-related activities during 2007-2013.

    Thirdly, Europe in general is quite exercised by the CHINDIA phenomenon, including in the arena of space technology. The April 2007 European Space Policy is no exception in this regard. It observes that “countries such as China and India are rapidly mastering space technology, becoming challenging competitors on the commercial market.” It is worthwhile noting here the Indian Space Research Organisation’s recent success in launching an Italian astronomical satellite into space and that European space authorities are bound to look upon ISRO as a serious competitor in the near future. Similarly, on May 14, China launched a Nigerian communications satellite NIGCOMSAT-1 and in the process it had outwitted other bidders.

    Finally, Galileo is also seen as an independent endeavour of the EU, which has aspirations to be a global player. Successful completion of the project, it is believed, would enable the EU to become an independent user of space as well as serve its strategic goals like interchanging the technology from civilian use to military ends. This would especially come in handy given that European forces are being stationed in different areas of the world and Galileo’s success would serve them well.

    While it is true that Galileo was conceived to emerge superior to the American GPS and the Russian GLONASS, timely completion is of utmost importance in a globally competitive market. Failure to achieve the deadline is likely to result in further attrition from the ranks of potential partners. Though Galileo is at present not shelved, it is in a state of crisis.

    India, Space Technology, European Union Nuclear and Arms Control IDSA COMMENT
    China's Anti-Terror Raid in Xinjiang Jagannath P. Panda May 11, 2007

    On April 19, 2007, the provincial Chinese court in Xinjiang sentenced Huseyin Celil, a Uyghur, to life imprisonment for taking part in "terrorist activities" and "plotting to split the country". The verdict of the People's Court of Urumchi states that Huseyin Celil will be deprived of his "political rights for life". This verdict has once again incensed human rights activists, who have begun a debate on Chinese intentions towards Uyghurs and Beijing's currently imprecise reportage on terrorism in Xinjiang.

    On April 19, 2007, the provincial Chinese court in Xinjiang sentenced Huseyin Celil, a Uyghur, to life imprisonment for taking part in "terrorist activities" and "plotting to split the country". The verdict of the People's Court of Urumchi states that Huseyin Celil will be deprived of his "political rights for life". This verdict has once again incensed human rights activists, who have begun a debate on Chinese intentions towards Uyghurs and Beijing's currently imprecise reportage on terrorism in Xinjiang. More importantly, the issue has led many strategic experts to take a fresh view of recent Chinese policy on Xinjiang and examine if there is any consistent Chinese constitutional approach to convict "suspected Uyghurs" as terrorists? This has become important given that China makes little distinction between separatists, terrorists, and civil rights activities.

    The Huseyin Celil verdict is the second in 2007, after the Urumchi court sentenced Ablikim Abdureyim for nine years of imprisonment. Abdureyim is the son of the prominent human rights defender and leader of the Uyghur movement Rebiya Kadeer. 2007 has already seen a lot of action from the Chinese government in cracking down on Uyghurs in connection with terrorism in Xinjiang. On January 5, the Chinese Public Security Bureau raided a "terrorist training camp" in the Pamir Plateau of Xinjiang and arrested 17 suspected ETIM (East Turkistan Independence Movement) members. Going by the official Xinhua News Agency report, 18 suspected terrorists and a policeman were reported killed in a shootout between the ETIM and Chinese public security forces. Further clarifying on this incident, Xinhua speculated that almost 1,000 ETIM members have been trained by al-Qaeda and that these ETIM members are directly or indirectly in contact with many local Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

    These recent incidents clearly highlight the nature and intention of the Chinese government - to conduct a comprehensive campaign aimed at both domestic and international audiences, to label all Uyghur opposition as linked to Al-Qaeda. In fact, for a long time, China has equated the activities of independent religious groups and practitioners with "separatism," which is a statutory crime against State Security under Chinese criminal law. But it must be noted that never before has the Chinese government explicitly linked these religious groups and voices in Xinjiang with terrorism. This new approach is in contrast to the position taken by China earlier. In fact, prior to 9/11, Chinese authorities tended to play down the seriousness of ethnic strife in Xinjiang by arguing that it is a "domestic problem of China" and that China is very positive about the future of the minorities in Xinjiang.

    If one looks at the 2006 Annual Report of the China Aid Association (CAA), throughout the year the Chinese authorities have taken intensive action even against non-Uyghur communities that belong to religious minority groups in the region. Chinese actions were directed basically against house churches and religious freedom groups, which saw the detention of almost 600 Christians. Some Chinese authorities went to the extent of interrogating church members during various raids rather than taking official action by arresting them. In addition, the strict control exercised by Chinese authorities over the state-controlled Three-Self Patriotic Movement (TSPM) has led to a massive protest in China. This was clearly seen in June 2006 when the Shanxi administration evicted Hu Qinghua, a Pastor of TSPM church in Pinglu. More importantly, this has become an international issue after the recent restriction imposed by the Chinese government on the relationships between unregistered Chinese Protestants and fellow believers abroad, which is in clear contravention of international human rights standards.

    The 2007 episodes in Xinjiang can be seen in this connection as a deliberate exercise on the part of the Chinese government to term and link the Uyghurs and other religious minorities with the ETIM "terrorists" and seize the opportunity to reduce the activities of these groups ahead of the 2008 Olympics scheduled to be held in Beijing. In fact, Beijing has taken a number of fresh initiatives to control Uyghur "unrests" in Xinjiang and adjacent areas by establishing networks with foreign intelligence agencies to prevent terrorist incidents, all in the name of tightening security before Olympics 2008. Through a multilateral body like Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO), Beijing has established "new intelligence-sharing" and "co-operative counter-terrorism measures" with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. On the military front, a number of initiatives are being taken in the Xinjiang Military Region to develop "mobile operations and joint exercises" with Central Asian countries in order to check any possible insurgency in Xinjiang.

    To address the Xinjiang problem more effectively, China has also tightened legal and constitutional measures. Vigilance police posts in Xinjiang, higher readiness levels of military and vigilant police units in the region have been established as part of various security initiatives. The National Anti-Terrorism Co-ordination Group (NATCG) and the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) has jointly formulated action plans like establishing early warning and prevention system to monitor the activities of terrorist groups, a quick response mechanism, as well as a crisis control and management system. A mass education and mobilization system too has been introduced to develop awareness among Chinese citizens about terrorism and counter-terrorism operations. At the constitutional level, efforts have been made to update anti-terrorism laws and legislation. The main changes brought about by the amendments recently are Articles 114, 120 and 191 of the criminal law. These amendments have detailed explanations of the criminal responsibility of a variety of terrorist activities. It further stipulates that people who organize and direct terrorist activities should be severely punished. Importantly, China is in the process of formulating a counter-terrorism law, which will be in place by the end of this year.

    Overall one can say that China does not wish to waste any opportunity in controlling the Uyghurs and Xinjiang particularly ahead of the 2008 Olympics when Xinjiang will be closely monitored by the international media. In the post-9/11 period, China has gone to the extent of arguing that the Uyghur separatists movement has been extensively financed by Osama bin Laden and has direct connections to the al-Qaeda network. A number of official reports and documents have been released recently by the Chinese government to draw the attention of the international media that there is a close proximity between Uyghurs and al-Qaeda members. For example, in the January 2002 official document titled East Turkistan Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away with Impunity, the Chinese government stated that "Bin Laden has schemed with the heads of the Central and West Asian terrorist organizations many times to help the 'East Turkistan' terrorist forces in Xinjiang to launch a 'holy war'." Interestingly, the Chinese government has never provided any substantial evidence about the Uyghur-Al-Qaeda link. In fact, in a recent statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao has gone to the extent of saying that "we think that cracking down on international terrorist organizations, including East Turkistan terrorism, benefits China and the world…no country in the world wishes to see another al-Qaeda in China".

    All this suggests that Beijing's approach to Xinjiang is very similar to its recent actions against Tibetans. In Tibet, Beijing has carried out a crackdown on many religious supporters of the Dalai Lama after 9/11, terming them "terrorists" because they are involved in "illegal" activities. Beijing's policy towards Xinjiang is also similar, and is aimed at maintaining firm control over the Uyghurs.

    Al Qaeda, Tibet, China East Asia IDSA COMMENT
    The LeT Menace in Delhi T. Khurshchev Singh May 11, 2007

    The arrest of three Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists on April 26, 2007 from Dilli Haat in New Delhi has once again exposed the challenge of terrorism confronting the capital. Attempts to target the National capital Region (NCR) is indicative of a broader trend of terrorists targeting mega cities in the country. Among the various terrorist outfits that seem to have a presence in New Delhi, the LeT appears to be the most dangerous and most persistent.

    The arrest of three Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists on April 26, 2007 from Dilli Haat in New Delhi has once again exposed the challenge of terrorism confronting the capital. Attempts to target the National capital Region (NCR) is indicative of a broader trend of terrorists targeting mega cities in the country. Among the various terrorist outfits that seem to have a presence in New Delhi, the LeT appears to be the most dangerous and most persistent.

    The LeT trio arrested in Dilli Haat possessed two kilograms of Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX), three detonators, two hand grenades, a timer and Rs. 25,000 in cash. Two of the arrested - Shafaqat Iqbal Mir and Shabbir Ahmed - are from Jammu & Kashmir, while the third - Abu Qasim, aka Mahammed Hassan - is a resident of Punjab in Pakistan. Their arrest was effected when the two Kashmiri operatives travelled to Delhi to hand over explosives to their Pakistani comrade. It has been learnt that Qasim worked for Abu Alqama, the LeT mastermind behind the October 29, 2005 multiple bomb blasts in Delhi. Delhi Police claim that the two Kashmiri operatives had received training in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and were under the direct supervision of Abu Ammar, the LeT chief in Jammu. Investigations have revealed that the plan was to carry out strikes on May 10, 2007 to coincide with the celebrations organised to mark the 150th anniversary of the 1857 Uprising. Deputy Commissioner of Police (Special Cell) Alok Kumar has suggested that the target could possibly have been the Red Fort where the celebrations took place.

    Terrorist activities in Delhi have steadily multiplied over the last few years, and the LeT seems to be at the forefront of this effort. 19 terrorists were arrested and killed in Delhi in 2005 as against 21 in 2006. Among the 14 arrested in 2005, six were from Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), one from Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), two from Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), two from Hizb-ul-Mujahidin (HM) and three from LeT. Among those killed in crossfire with the Delhi police in 2005 included five cadres of the LeT (two killed near Pragati Maidan and another three at Kakrola Mor in South-West Delhi). In 2006, out of 21 terrorists arrested, 17 were LeT cadres, while the other four belonged to Al-Badr (two), HM (one) and BKI (one).

    The statistics for 2007, between January and April, also seems to indicate the continuation of the above trend. Data in the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) suggests that about 10.6 kilograms of RDX (including two kilograms from Dilli Haat) along with other explosive devices were seized from different groups from various places in Delhi. On January 4, 2007 two suspected HuJI militants - Lutful Rahman, a Bangladeshi national and Mohammed Amin Wani, a J&K resident - were arrested from Adarsh Nagar in North-West Delhi and Nizamuddin in South Delhi, respectively. Amin Wani was apprehended with 1.6 kilograms of RDX, a detonator and a timer, while Lutuful Rahman was caught with Rs. 4.5 lakh. Subsequently, on January 25, the Special Cell of the Delhi Police arrested a suspected LeT militant at the Seelampur Metro station with 2.5 kilograms of RDX. Police claimed that the militant was on his way to hand over the explosives to a LeT module, which was planning to carry out attacks to coincide with Republic Day. Again, on February 4, four suspected JeM militants, including a Pakistani national, were arrested with three kilograms of RDX, four detonators, a timer, six hand grenades, a .30 bore firearm, US $10,000 and Rs. 50,000, following an encounter with the Delhi Police near Connaught Place.

    All this indicates that terrorist outfits are increasingly employing sophisticated devices like Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and RDX. For instance, the 2005 triple terror attacks on Sarojini Nagar, Paharganj and Govindpuri were carried out using IEDs, and resulted in the death of 59 people and injury to 155 others. This incident also illustrates the point that the aim of these terrorists is to carry out lethal strikes in order to have the maximum impact.

    Terrorists operating in Delhi are supported directly or indirectly by foreign intelligences like Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and Bangladesh's Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). On February 27, Captain Salim Zafar Azad, a suspected ISI agent, was arrested in a joint operation by military intelligence officials and the Special Cell of Delhi Police. He reportedly spent a few years in Bangladesh before moving to Delhi for an ISI mission. According to a Times of India report dated July 22, 2006, the ISI runs 256 modules across India. Under the aegis of the ISI, the DGFI and other external elements, the LeT has become one the most dynamic terrorist groups operating not just in Jammu and Kashmir but also in New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Varanasi, and Kolkata. A few instances here would suffice to illustrate the expanding ambit of LeT operations: the December 2005 attack on the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) campus in Bangalore, the March 2006 attack in Varanasi, the June 1, 2006 attempt to attack the RSS Headquarters in Nagpur, the June 2006 serial bombings in Mumbai suburban trains.

    One recent development with respect to the LeT is its use of the sea route to infiltrate into India. On March 10, 2007, two of the outfit's operatives were arrested in Rajauri district of Jammu & Kashmir whose interrogation revealed that they had come into India in a group of eight on a boat from Karachi. According to a media report posted on January 3, 2007, an Intelligence Bureau assessment has claimed that some 600 LeT cadres, trained to handle large boats and in navigation skills, to lay land mines and explosives, and in surveillance methods are poised to infiltrate into the country through the coast line and island territories.

    The above indicates that the LeT's objective is not limited to the "liberation" of J&K, but extends to targeting all of India for the eventual goal of disintegrating the country and preventing its emergence as a major global player. Consequently, LeT terrorist strikes against Delhi and other places in India are likely to escalate further. It is imperative that the Indian government overhauls its security measures and enables better co-ordination and intelligence sharing among its various agencies in order to reduce the scope for terrorists to carry out their deadly strikes.

    India, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HuJI), Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) Terrorism & Internal Security IDSA COMMENT

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