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15th South Asia Conference - Achieving Regional Economic Integration in South Asia (December 14-15, 2023)	December 14, 2023 to December 15, 2023			Conference	Concept Note CONCEPT NOTE The process of globalisation has integrated production and supply chains as well as markets around the world. Trade and economic relations have a logic of their own, with geo-economics often transcending geopolitics. In a globalized world, strategic choices are often subject to economic considerations. Closer economic integration also provides stability among adversaries in a world in flux. Regional economic integration in sub-geographies has generally led to an improved and stable strategic architecture. Regional integration plays a crucial role in overcoming divisions that impede the flow of goods, services, capital, people, and ideas among countries. These divisions, often caused by geographical limitations, inadequate infrastructure, and inefficient policies, hinder economic growth, particularly in developing nations. By integrating markets for goods and services, regional integration enables countries to surmount these barriers, facilitating the flow of trade, capital, energy, people, and ideas. This process can be facilitated through the establishment of common physical and institutional infrastructure. Different regions across the world have adopted various institutional forms of cooperation, with different levels of policy commitments and shared sovereignty, prioritizing different aspects of regional integration. Regional integration can yield substantial economic gains for participating countries. It improves market efficiency, enables cost-sharing for public goods and large infrastructure projects, fosters cooperative decision-making, acts as a catalyst for reforms, and serves as a building block for global integration. Additionally, regional integration offers non-economic benefits such as peace and security. In different regions around the world, regional integration efforts have been shaped by unique circumstances, challenges, and motivations, which have influenced the outcomes and levels of success achieved by the respective organizations. In North America, the United States played a leading role and contributed to the successful establishment of organizations like USMCA (earlier NAFTA), promoting economic cooperation among member countries. On the other hand, South America witnessed the creation of MERCOSUR, also known as the Southern Common Market, initially comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In the 1990s, MERCOSURproved successful in enhancing trade within the group. However, Brazil's currency devaluation in 1999 and Argentina's financial crisis in 2001 impacted on regional integration. The bloc faced challenges in later years when trying to open up to other markets. Moreover, trade disputes and tensions arose between the two largest economies in the bloc. This also shows that intra-regional trade and economic frictions can thwart a region’s consensus and smooth interface with the rest of the world even after achieving a common market. An example is the UK, which eventually exited the EU through BREXIT. In Southeast Asia, the establishment of ASEAN in 1967 by five nations was in response to curbing the spread of communism. Following the 1997 Asian financial crisis that originated in Thailand, ASEAN members took significant steps to further integrate their economies and foster cooperation among member states. It also resulted in economic integration in the wider region, with a rising economy such as China’s, through currency swap arrangements under the Chiang Mai Initiative. ASEAN has seen a steady rise in its own integration with the Chinese economy since then. Additionally, China's strong ties with its diaspora in Southeast Asian countries also contributed to improved relationships, increased trade, and enhanced commerce. The establishment of ASEAN further facilitated China-ASEAN integration. While China may have intentions to exert influence in neighboring countries, its success largely depends on the acceptance and cooperation of these nations. In some cases, regional integration can be triggered by a domino effect, exemplified by the enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include several East and Central European countries after the demise of the Soviet Union. These erstwhile communist economies anticipated economic benefits by joining the EU. The latter, through the expansion, created newer and more competitive centers of manufacturing for their union. China has been successful in fostering integration with neighboring countries. Japan, ROK, Singapore, Hong Kong and even Taiwan have played a key role in fostering the economic rise of China, by integrating their manufacturing centers and supply chains with the Chinese economy. They have taken full advantage of the labour cost arbitrage in China and the latter’s hub and spokes connectivity with markets around the world. China has benefitted by absorbing technologies and capital. In South Asia, the situation is different. Achieving regional integration has been particularly challenging compared to other regions due to unique historical and geopolitical circumstances. South Asia has a shared history, both civilizational and colonial, but does not necessarily have a shared identity. Religious and linguistic differences act as a drag on regional integration. In the past, efforts to achieve economic integration in South Asia were made through SAPTA (South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement) and later through SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area). However, these initiatives resulted only in limited success in fostering regional economic integration. Unlike some other regions, South Asia lacks a consensus on emerging threats and challenges. Unlike China, South Asia does not have some of the world’s most developed and dynamic economies on its periphery. The partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 after gaining independence from British rule left behind contested borders, further complicating integration efforts. Besides, the quest for national identity post-colonization has, at times, posed challenges to fostering a shared regional identity that facilitates integration. Moreover, the rise of China has acted as a magnet for many of the smaller South Asian economies whose trade with China has outpaced their traditional trade with India. South Asia today has multiple choices. Apart from India and China as economic partners, the US has also stepped up its efforts to engage the region through the economic lens and not just through a security lens. Given the logic of geography and India’s rise as the world’s fifth largest economy and the fastest growing of all, regional economic integration in South Asia suggests India as the fulcrum. Given the limitations of SAARC, South Asia has witnessed the emergence of new regional initiatives driven by India's Act East Policy. These initiatives, which include the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor and the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal transport agreement), are aimed at fostering cohesiveness among member states and achieving prosperity in the region. In this context, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (MP-IDSA) intends to host the 15th South Asia Conference titled, “Prospects of Regional Economic Integration in South Asia” on 14-15 December 2023. A cross-section of experts, analysts, and policymakers will be invited to discuss these issues and recommend the way forward. The Conference: The conference seeks to discuss among others the following questions: What is the current state of regional economic integration? Role of connectivityin promoting regional economic integration and its current status Tariff, Non-tariff and Technical barriers to trade Economic Partnership Agreements in South Asia Banking and fiscal policies in the region Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) in India and beyond Trade Settlement in Indian Rupee / Regional currencies / UPI/DPI Financial Crisis and Regional Response / Regional crisis management / Impact on Regional Integration Sub-regional integration – Including and excluding India Afghanistan and Myanmar as gateways to promote regional integration beyond South Asia Participation in the conference is by invitation only. To participate, please contact the conference coordinator. Conference Programme CONFERENCE PROGRAMME Contact us Dr. Anand Kumar Co-ordinator, 15th South Asia Conference Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses New Delhi-110010 Tel (O): +91 11-26717983 Email: anandkmrai@gmail.com, anand_rai@hotmail.com	South Asia	South Asia Conference		system/files/15th-SAC-webinar-poster-copy.jpg
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Recent Coups in Africa’s Sahel Region: Trends and Challenges	October 30, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Recent Coups in Africa’s Sahel Region: Trends and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 October 2023. The Session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The recent spate of coups in West Africa and the Sahel, notably in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has raised significant concerns regarding political stability in the Sahel region. Driven by socio-political grievances and security challenges, military interventions have disrupted democratic governance. Burkina Faso experienced a coup amid economic challenges and rising extremist violence, while Niger and Gabon also faced coups, citing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of security threats. The international community has strongly condemned these actions, emphasising the urgent need for a return to democratic principles. Regional organisations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) play a pivotal role in mediating and restoring stability to the region. Their efforts are crucial in addressing the complex socio-political and security issues that have led to these unsettling developments. Detailed Report The presentation commenced with Dr. Rajeesh Kumar delivering opening remarks, providing a foundation for examination of recurring coups in Africa. Dr. Rajeesh mentioned the historical depth of this phenomenon, spanning from 1946 to 2020, with over 300 instances documented. The focus of the discussion, led by Dr. Abhishek Mishra, was on unravelling the intricacies and understanding the root causes of these coups. The presentation proceeded with Dr. Abhishek providing an overview of the research methods employed, with particular emphasis on the utilization of descriptive and analytical approaches in addition to using both primary and secondary sources. Transitioning to the theme, he highlighted three distinct waves of coups in Africa. The first wave (1960s-1970s) was characterised by the overthrow of leaders whose political visions conflicted with the interests of major colonial powers. The second wave (1990-2001) is examined in terms of failures in the 1980s, reduced violence involving mid-level officers, and the impact of evolving democratic norms at the regional and continental level. The ongoing third wave (2020 onwards) is marked by diverse motivations, ranging from unconstitutional Presidential term limit extensions and anti-colonial sentiments, with a spotlight on country-specific manifestations. Subsequently, he provided analysis on factors propelling coups in the Sahel, identifying perennially weak states, overdependence on aid, and electoral governance shortcomings as pivotal drivers over the past three decades. A comprehensive overview of recent coups from January 2020 to August 2023 was presented, incorporating statistics on attempted and successful coups, notable incidents (e.g., Niger in July, Gabon in August 2023), and the resultant implications for the region. Dr. Abhishek further explored the Sahel region, revealing a landscape fraught with intricate challenges influenced by structural, governance, and external dynamics. The collapse of Libya intensified military involvement, fostering discontent and challenges to elected leaders. Cold War-era neocolonialism deepened reliance on external aid. Governance systems, a legacy of colonialism, often lack true democratic principles, consolidating power within group of elites and particular communities. While certain nations successfully transitioned to functioning democracies like Ghana, Mauritius, Cote d’Ivoire, unmet youth aspirations persist. Military coups, orchestrated by well-trained officers, lack economic direction and ideological foundations, with citizen’s support for military overthrow reflecting dissatisfaction rather than endorsement of military rule. Democratic regression, evident in superficial democracies and declining satisfaction, underscore governance hurdles. Recommendations emphasise regional collaboration, institutional investment, and local governance focus. Strained state-society relations necessitate inclusivity efforts and resolution of historical grievances. Discrepancies between legality and legitimacy, driven by foreign interference, impede effective governance. France's role, rooted in colonial history, faces scrutiny amid growing decolonial sentiments and regional tensions. Insecurity, exemplified by the failure of Operation Barkhane, further complicates the region's landscape. In his exploration of the Sahel region, Dr. Abhishek highlighted the intricacies surrounding Operation Barkhane, France's initiative in 2013 to curb Islamist violence. While initially successful against insurgencies, France's recent withdrawal, commencing on 15 August 2022, has raised concerns about potential destabilisation and power vacuums in the region. The "Francafrique" system, characterising France's relationship with African nations, came under scrutiny for inconsistencies and double standards in promoting Western values, contributing to tensions. Immigration and visa issues further strained relations between France, Africa, and Europe, complicating diplomatic dynamics. Amidst these complexities, Russia's role in the region received attention, with Dr. Abhishek urging caution against media hype. Despite Russia's deep pockets, limitations to its influence in certain African countries were noted. The heightened violence following the withdrawal of Operation Barkhane and the United Nations Multinational Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) brought attention to security challenges, notably attributed to groups like Jamaá Nusrat ul-Islam wa-al Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Dr. Abhishek advocated a political and diplomatic resolution to the crisis, emphasising the temporary nature of sanctions and the need for a bottom-up governance-focused approach. Improved coordination among international organisations, revisiting peace deals, and cautious dialogue with militants were underscored as essential elements for a sustainable resolution. The potential for African Union and ECOWAS intervention was acknowledged, particularly in preventing political transitions through diplomatic means. The assessment of countries susceptible to coups, including Cameroon, Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea, highlighted concerns about dissatisfaction with long-serving leaders and the potential for power shifts in these regions. *Questions and Comments* During the Q&A session the scholars raised a number of thought-provoking inquiries, ranging from the implications of foreign intervention, specifically dissecting the aftermath of French involvement in African nations, to a deep dive into the role of social media in shaping post-coup leadership. The motivations behind unconstitutional power extensions took centre stage, prompting discussions on whether civilian governments or military leaders were more prone to such actions. Scrutiny extended to the effectiveness of regional blocks and the African Union in curbing coups, prompting a collective call for a re-evaluation of existing sanctions and conditions. Dr. Abhishek Mishra addressed the questions posed by the scholars. On the issue of instability in Francophone West Africa, he noted that successive coups haven't directly led to instability, explaining the uniqueness of each country's situation. Coup prevention emerged as a priority, particularly in cases where leaders attempt third terms, leading to concentrated power. Regarding democracy, Dr. Mishra stressed the need to revisit the social contract and build institutions for sustained trust between civilians and leaders. From India's perspective, the instability poses a limited threat to investments, but the country continues to seek new markets, as Indian embassies in these regions continue to operate despite the instability. The coup phenomenon is more pronounced in Francophone West African countries due to France's historical legacy. Mishra highlighted challenges in weak states, with citizens blaming leaders for unfulfilled promises, emphasising the necessity of inclusive approaches to state-building, bringing in diverse communities for sustainable development. The report has been prepared by Mohanasakthivel J., Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Presidential Election in the Maldives: Implications for India	October 09, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Executive Summary Maldives, an archipelago in South Asia, recently concluded its fourth presidential election under the multiparty system, resulting in Mohamed Muizzu of the Progressive Alliance securing a decisive victory with roughly 54% of the ballots. The outcome of this election holds significance for Maldivian Foreign Policy and the broader Indian Ocean Region. While outgoing President Solih pursued a pro-Indian foreign policy, President-elect Muizzu may be inclined more towards China. Nevertheless, continuing collaboration with India is likely on the horizon to fulfil his commitment to advancing the country's economic development. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Anand Kumar offered a brief overview of the recent Maldivian Presidential Election and its implications for India. He detailed that the first round of election took place on 9 September 2023, followed by a second runoff on 30 September as no candidate secured the mandatory 50% vote in the first round. He assessed that corruption, governance, defence and security, sovereignty, and the presence of Indian troops in the country were some of the key election issues. Finally, he outlined how President-elect Mohamed Muizzu’s victory could potentially lead to shifts in foreign policy, aligning more closely with China while potentially distancing from India. Dr. Gulbin Sultana began her presentation by concisely explaining the two-phase presidential polls in Maldives. She explained that in the fourth presidential elections, Mohamed Muizzu, representing the Progressive Alliance, a coalition comprising the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People's National Congress (PNC), emerged victorious over the incumbent, Mohammed Ibrahim Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). She highlighted how Muizzu's win has sparked interest in its implications for the country's foreign policy. However, she underlined that the newly elected president will face the delicate task of balancing domestic priorities with the ongoing geopolitical competition between India and China to expand its sphere of influence. Dr. Sultana delved into the backdrop of previous presidential elections and their corresponding policies. Under President Yameen's leadership from 2013 to 2018, the Maldives strengthened ties with China by joining its Belt and Road Initiative. His successor, Ibrahim Solih from MDP, pursued an "India First" policy, enhancing developmental security and defence connections with India while avoiding projects conflicting with Indian interests initiated by the Chinese government. In terms of development, she highlighted India's involvement in over 50 community development projects and the initiation of the Greater Male Connectivity Project. On the defence front, India's ongoing initiatives encompass the construction of a naval harbour at UthuruThila Falhu, hydrographic surveys, supplying a Dornier aircraft and offering a US$ 50 million Credit Line for defence purposes. Nonetheless, she detailed how the Progressive Alliance opposed the deepening of bilateral ties by spearheading an "India Out" campaign based on disinformation. Politicising the issue, “India Out” campaigners accused both India and the MDP government of undermining Maldives sovereignty. Furthermore, the speaker mentioned the factors contributing to the current election outcome. Dr. Sultana claimed that the tilt of Solih’s administration towards India was not the only contributing factor. She highlighted the internal split within the MDP stemming from party differences, President Solih's inability to fulfil promises made during his tenure, and concerns related to the nation's sovereignty and strategic autonomy were additional elements that contributed to his poor performance in the elections. The discussion encompassed various aspects, including the election promises articulated by the newly elected president. The speaker noted that the president-elect had strongly emphasised fostering economic development, addressing the issue of servicing the country's debt, and recognising the significance of large-scale projects for the nation's economy. In terms of foreign policy, he expressed intentions to enhance relations with multiple countries, Nevertheless, the speaker assessed that the country's stability may face challenges due to the economic challenges posed by the pandemic and its over-reliance on imports. Additionally, the speaker highlighted that while it is expected that Muizzu's Presidency will result in increased Chinese involvement in the region, it is unlikely that the foreign policy will entirely revert to the 2013-2018 period under Abdullah Yameen, considering economic factors and the new administration's priorities for the next five years. Regarding the future of India-Maldives relations, Dr. Sultana anticipated their continuity despite the new president's intentions to remove foreign military personnel from Maldivian soil. She enumerated India's engagement with the Maldives, which has significantly expanded, spanning development initiatives and financial support. In essence, she anticipated that the diplomatic dialogues between the Maldives and India are expected to endure due to shared interests and ongoing projects. Questions and Comments The floor was opened for questions and comments. The remarks and inquiries underscored the potential resurgence of Islamic radicalism, the new president’s ability to balance relations with major powers like India, China, Japan and the US, as well as the prospect of a formal defence and security agreement between India and the Maldives. Lastly, the discussion centred on India's neighbourhood policy and underscored the significance of effective engagement and the timely execution of projects to enhance India's standing in the region. Report prepared by Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting: Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific	November 06, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	A delegation from The Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), Arlington, Virginia, participated in the Monday Morning Meeting held on 6 November 2023 at 1000h in Room No. 005. Mr. Robert Hein, Senior Executive and Director, Policy and Plans, U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet, and Dr. Satu Limaye, Senior Advisor, CNA, spoke on “Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific”. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, chaired the Session. Other members of the delegation, Mr. Dean Vaughn, Staff Member, Policy and Plans, US Navy Pacific Fleet and Ms. Tamara Hemphill, Acting Director, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, CNA, along with the scholars from MP-IDSA, enriched the discussion. Executive Summary The Asia-Pacific paradigm was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, the Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, the Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while the Indo-Pacific is more democratic. The US’ approach towards China has changed from cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. Chinese belligerent actions in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. The US seeks a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. There is a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. There is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Detailed Report Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy set the context for discussions. He said that the Indo-Pacific region is of great relevance to India and the United States (US). However, earlier, Asia-Pacific has been in vogue. The Post-World War II Japanese economic growth, the emergence of the Asian tigers, and the consistent high Chinese economic growth facilitated by the US gave rise to the concept of the Asia-Pacific. Going beyond financial calculations, the physical presence of the US was an essential factor in shaping the Asia-Pacific concept. Washington also invested heavily in the region. The US’ interests spanned across the political, military and economic domains. Thus, the Asia-Pacific was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while Indo-Pacific is more democratic. Amb. Chinoy stated that the US is not an extra-regional player but has a physical presence, and an economic and strategic role in the Indo-Pacific. The US presence in the region was one of the most important reasons for the economic rise of Asia. Amb. Chinoy further stated that if China was championing the cause of multipolarity at the international level, the same should also be the case in Asia. Speaking about the Quad, Amb. Chinoy held that India attached great importance to the Quad, which is not a military partnership. There is an added advantage of having a multilateral Malabar exercise. He ended his introductory remarks by asking whether the Quad or Malabar could transform into an alliance in the future. He answered the question in affirmation and commented that China would determine the future of the Quad. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy invited Mr. Robert Hein to make his presentation. Mr. Robert Hein spoke about the US Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept, and changing dynamics in the region vis-à-vis China. He said that the US emphasised a Free and Open Indo-Pacific so that there would be unimpeded regional trade leading to the region's economic development. Every country has a right to protect the integrity of their respective territorial waters. Talking about a radical change in regional security dynamics, the Speaker informed the audience how the US approach towards China changed from one of cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. However, China continued the unabashed militarisation of the South China Sea. Beijing started putting conditions on every form of cooperation to reduce competition. Mr. Hein, further affirmed that Chinese belligerent action in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. He corroborated his claim by giving the example of the Philippines. Manila wanted to do away with the US forces from its territory. However, Chinese bellicose behaviour in the South China Sea forced the Philippines to renew a bilateral agreement with the US. Further, the Quad has grown enormously due to China’s maligned behaviour. Mr. Hein complained that China had cut off all communication with the US, which was a bad sign for any bilateral relationship. Talking about India-US relations, the Speaker observed that the relationship was in good shape and growing well in multiple areas including defence, technology, new practices and procedures. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. He also spoke about the US vision of a thousand-ship navy being realised with the help of its partners and allies as a collective endeavour. He cautioned the audience that the conflict over Taiwan would be a great blow to the global economy and may lead to another great depression. Dr. Satu Limaye agreed with the previous Speaker that China had done an excellent job in strengthening the US alliances. He held the India-US Partnership in good stead and said the US alliances were becoming more critical. Regarding de-risking and decoupling from China, Dr. Limaye remarked that the picture was more precise and the US was weighing its dependencies with China about trade, investment and high technology. Simultaneously, the US sought a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. Dr. Limaye touched upon the economic aspect of the US-China relationship. He observed a shift in China’s economic relations with the region, especially with the US, Japan and Europe. On the one hand, China is trying to diversify ties as a part of broader decoupling. On the other hand, the US has increased interactions with its allies and partners in the economic domain. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework were helping the regional economic order to become more multilateral, open and engaged. The Speaker noted a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. Rather than focusing on the big regional multilateral initiatives like the East Asia Summit, the US focused on initiatives such as the Chip 4 Alliance, Quad and Critical Mineral Partnership. Thus, there is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others. Amb. Chinoy observed that there was no need for the US to have a thousand-ship navy due to its technological superiority over China. He noted that India was not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as there was a moratorium on expanding the grouping. Regarding China’s Malacca Dilemma, Amb. Chinoy commented that all countries depend on the Malacca Strait for their trade and energy needs. Amb. Chinoy also raised a few questions regarding the US’s reaction in case China attempts to forcefully seek reunification with Taiwan. He also inquired about the US position in case China threatened the Philippines’ sovereignty over its island territories. In response to the observations raised by Amb. Chinoy and MP-IDSA scholars, Mr. Hein stated that China would not commit to any adventure over Taiwan because President Xi lacks confidence in his armed forces. Additionally, he has several domestic issues that would deter him from taking Taiwan by force. The US has allies and partners in the region, thus preventing China from doing a misadventure over Taiwan. Talking about the role of domestic politics in decision-making vis-à-vis a contingency in the region, the Speaker further said that in a war-like situation, the US would unite and respond to the situation wholeheartedly. Regarding Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), the Speaker said that the US does it against friends and adversaries alike and will continue to do so in accordance with International Law. Mr. Hein said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was important for the US. Following a rich and insightful discussion, Amb. Chinoy brought the meeting to a close. Report is prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre.
Talk on the theme "Tanzania’s Foreign Policy and India-Tanzania Relations"	October 04, 2023			Talk	Mr. Avit A. Chami, India-Africa Security Fellow, spoke on “Tanzania’s Foreign Policy and India-Tanzania Relations” at a Roundtable held at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi on 4 October 2023. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy chaired the meeting and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive Summary Mr. Avit A. Chami's presentation highlighted the deep historical and cultural connections between India and Tanzania, showcasing Tanzania's economic indicators, political landscape under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and its reliance on agriculture and strategic trade networks. Chami outlined potential areas for collaboration, spanning healthcare, defence, education, and trade, while emphasising the thriving Indian community in Tanzania. The presentation underscored the bilateral commitment to strengthening ties, acknowledging challenges, and outlining government measures to fortify the relationship. Overall, it emerged that the India-Tanzania relationship is positioned for mutual growth, promising a bright future ahead as both nations are among the fastest-growing economies globally and in Africa. Detailed Report The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy introduced the Speaker and emphasised the critical role Tanzania plays in India's diplomatic and economic engagement. Drawing attention to Tanzania's political stability, demographic advantages, and its function as a gateway to landlocked African nations, he highlighted its potential as an economic powerhouse in Africa. The country's abundant biodiversity and its status as an Indian Ocean littoral state add to its significance in India's Indian Ocean strategy. He underscored that the visit by the Indian Chief of the Army Staff, along with prior high-level interactions, reflects a clear commitment to strengthening ties between the two nations. Mr. Avit A. Chami's presentation commenced with expressions of gratitude towards the Institute and the participants. In his presentation he delved into the deep historical and cultural connections between Tanzania and India. Mr. Chami highlighted Tanzania's strategic position on the East African Coast, setting the foundation for a broader discussion on the relationship between the two nations. Transitioning into the economic and cultural aspects, Mr. Chami emphasised the democratic leadership under President Dr. Samia Suluhu Hassan. He also showcased key economic indicators, including a GDP of $85 billion and a 5.7% growth rate, attributed to sectors like agriculture, tourism, mining, manufacturing, trade, and transit. The cultural diversity of Tanzania, with 120 tribes practicing various religions, and the prominence of Kiswahili as the national language were also highlighted. Talking about notable attractions, such as UNESCO Heritage Sites, pristine beaches in Zanzibar, and wildlife safaris, the Speaker painted a vivid picture of Tanzania's allure. Shifting focus to Tanzania's political landscape, Mr. Avit A. Chami delved into the democratic framework characterised by regular general elections occurring every five years. He explained the prevailing leadership structure, underscoring the central role played by the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party. Mr. Chami elucidated on the prominent figures guiding the government, with President Hassan making history as the first female president. Assisting President Samia in steering the nation are Vice President Dr. Philip Isdor Mpango and Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa, collectively forming an effective leadership team. In addition, Mr. Chami, highlighted agriculture as the backbone of Tanzania's economy and emphasised the pivotal role of trade, notably through the Port of Dar es Salaam. India is a major trading partner, receiving 22 percent of Tanzanian exports, while China dominates as the leading source for imports, particularly agricultural products, and clothing. Mr. Chami underscored Tanzania's limited industrial activities but noted its appeal for foreign direct investment (FDI), with China leading, followed by the USA, and India ranking as the third-largest source of FDI for the country. This succinct overview portrayed Tanzania's economic reliance on agriculture, a robust trade network, and strategic foreign investments. Building upon the foundational insights, Mr. Chami provided a more in-depth exploration of Tanzania's foreign policy, emphasising the significant influence of President Julius Nyerere. The trajectory of this policy, which initially centered on open diplomacy and anti-colonialism post-independence in 1961, underwent a transformative shift in 2001, towards economic diplomacy, prioritising foreign direct investment and fostering global partnerships. Over the years, Tanzania actively participated in regional and international initiatives, contributing notably to anti-colonial struggles in Africa and cultivating diplomatic ties, notably with India. The ongoing phase involves a meticulous review process, addressing pressing issues such as climate change and maritime security. Tanzania's commitment to global cooperation, technology, and investment, underscored by its dedication to human rights and equality, is evident. Actively engaging in diverse multilateral organisations, Tanzania positions itself as a significant player in the dynamic landscape of international relations. In its global engagement, India holds a distinctive position for Tanzania, with a relationship dating back to the 1960s rooted in a historical connection spanning 2,000 years through the Indian diaspora. Originating from trade facilitated by monsoons, this enduring connection is exemplified by the harmoniously integrated Indian community, known as Wahindi, an integral part of Tanzanian society akin to a tribe. Centered around the Indian Ocean, the connection is characterised by shared cultures, histories, and culinary traditions. Established in 1961, official diplomatic ties have fostered development cooperation, defense collaboration, economic partnerships, and strong people-to-people relations. The educational exchange has seen Tanzanian students benefit from Indian institutions, with the notable milestone of an IIT Madras branch in Zanzibar poised to enhance technological and educational capacities in the region. Mr. Chami also delved into potential areas for collaboration between India and Tanzania, emphasising the robust partnership already established across diverse sectors. In healthcare, Indian hospitals collaborate with Tanzanian counterparts in joint programs, specifically addressing critical issues such as health and sanitation. The pharmaceutical industry plays a significant role, contributing vaccines and medicines to bolster Tanzania's healthcare. Over two decades of support, including the Lines of Credit program, has seen India enhance water infrastructure in more than fifty Tanzanian cities. The longstanding defence and security cooperation, spanning six decades, encompasses joint exercises, maritime collaboration, and the exchange of military ties. This collaboration extends to personnel exchanges, with defence colleges facilitating knowledge sharing and training. Overall, the multifaceted collaboration exemplifies a comprehensive and mutually beneficial relationship between India and Tanzania. Furthermore, the collaboration between India and Tanzania has yielded notable achievements, particularly in defence and security. The Indian Navy's support along the eastern coast has been crucial, with recent joint defence cooperation meetings paving the way for a strategic five-year development roadmap. While current defence trade appears modest, the intent is to deepen cooperation in this sector. In terms of economic and trade ties, both nations share a healthy relationship. India continues to be a prominent market for Tanzanian agricultural products such as cashew nuts, pigeon peas, spices, avocados, and other commodities, constituting 22 per cent of Tanzanian exports. The introduction of direct flights between Dar es Salaam and Mumbai further facilitates business and people-to-people connections. In the midst of tough competition, India engages in trade amounting to $6.5 billion, navigating the challenges posed by the formidable market presence of China. Cultural integration is evident in shared activities like International Yoga Day, Kabaddi Day, and the blending of Bollywood and Bongowood in film industries. The Indian diaspora of over 60,000 in Tanzania actively contributes to business and cultural exchanges, while Tanzanians in India, primarily students, add to the dynamic intercultural landscape. The collaborative spirit is fostering a deepening bond between the two nations. Finally, Mr. Chami painted a vibrant picture of the thriving Indian community in Tanzania. Over the years, it has flourished, enjoying robust support from both the government and the local community. What sets the Indians apart is their reputation for reliability, distinguishing them from other foreign groups. Unlike some, they steer clear of selling counterfeit products, establishing a strong bond with consumers. Indian-owned hospitals play a crucial role in providing affordable and dependable healthcare, further strengthening community ties. Despite amicable relations, challenges persist, including limited awareness and competition from China, affecting the trade balance. The government has implemented measures to fortify ties with India, facilitating direct flights and introducing visa-on-arrival for Indians. The initiative to conduct trade in local currencies aims to streamline business even further. Future prospects extend across diverse sectors such as agriculture, extractives, tourism, and infrastructure. The overarching objective is to expand Indian influence beyond existing domains. In conclusion, India and Tanzania, both among the fastest-growing economies globally and in Africa respectively, are poised to reap the rewards of mutual growth, promising a bright future ahead. The Q/A Session Ms. Ruchita Beri, consultant at MP-IDSA's Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN (ALACUN) Centre, contributed valuable insights by posing questions and making remarks that delved into crucial aspects of Tanzanian foreign policy and the India-Tanzania relationship. Her inquiries explored the ongoing foreign policy review, the significance of core issues like blue economy and the Tanzanian diaspora, and India's broader relevance in Africa. Ms. Beri's remarks highlighted the depth of the India-Tanzania relationship, particularly in water management, and acknowledged the remarkable 84% implementation rate of India's development assistance. Dr. Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow at the ALACUN Centre, joined the discussion, expressing appreciation and raising pertinent questions and remarks. Dr. Mishra emphasised the strategic ties between India and Tanzania, recognising their significance due to proximity, religious ties, and evolving defence relations. He commended the recent Mini Defence Expo, suggesting its replication in other African countries. Dr. Mishra's inquiries into challenges faced by Indian companies in Tanzania, including land leasing issues, and the competitive dynamics with China winning tenders, highlighted key areas for exploration and improvement. In response Mr. Avit A. Chami said that he valued the informative discussion and addressed a few of the crucial issues brought up during the discussion. According to him, the ongoing review of Tanzanian foreign policy addresses critical issues, including climate change, negotiations, and dual citizenship, which has sparked significant debate. The concern is centered around potential security risks associated with offering citizenship to the diaspora. The President's recent acknowledgment of this issue and the consideration of adopting a special status for diaspora members reflect the complexity of this debate. Regarding India-Tanzania trade relations amidst Chinese competition, the Speaker highlighted untapped sectors like agriculture and tourism as significant opportunities for Indian companies. The comparison with Chinese influence underscores the need for a strategic and hybrid approach in sectors where India has a competitive advantage, such as defence and security. He acknowledged India's success in these sectors due to stability and well-organised exchanges but emphasised the importance of addressing concerns in other sectors for effective collaboration. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy expressed appreciation to the Speaker for sharing valuable insights, particularly those related to Tanzania's perspective. He said that these insights have significantly enriched the Institute's understanding of Africa. Ambassador Chinoy extended best wishes to Mr. Avit A. Chami and expressed anticipation for future interactions with him. *The report has been prepared by Mohanasakthivel J., Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.*	Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN	India-Tanzania Relations, Tanzania
Report of MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar: “Iran in the Emerging (Eur)Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power”	October 26, 2023			Fellows' Seminar	Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), presented her Fellow Paper on “Iran in the Emerging (Eur)Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power” at the MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar held on 26 October 2023. The Seminar was chaired by Professor Gulshan Dietl, former Professor, School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University. The External Discussants were Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, Centre for West Asian Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Senior Fellow (West and Central Asia), Tillotama Foundation. Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre and Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, were Internal Discussants. Director General of MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and scholars of the Institute attended the Seminar. Executive Summary Three noteworthy trends delineate Iran’s emerging middle power behaviour. Firstly, there is a proactive involvement in Asian multilateralism, exemplified by active participation in regional institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Secondly, Iran employs an ideational strategy that leverages its civilisational identity and values as a foundation for nurturing an Asian regional security community. Thirdly, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively facilitating connections in transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by major powers, including China, Russia, and India. These trends collectively signify Iran’s role in shaping the geoeconomic landscape of (Eur)Asia. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy welcomed the Chair and the External and Internal Discussants. He emphasised the importance of Iran being a part of India’s close neighbourhood and how India’s Act West policy encapsulates geopolitical and civilisational relations. He stated that Iran has special significance in West Asian politics. Amb. Chinoy highlighted that Iran frequently remains in the news for one or other issues like being part of a long-drawn imbroglio in Yemen with the Houthi problem, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear postures, bilateral relations with the US, and peace and security in the Persian Gulf. He outlined the role of Iran in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). It was also noted that Iran has been a general outlier in the international system but gains a significant constituency when required. Its bilateral relations with India are mostly on a reciprocal basis. Amb. Chinoy recalled his tenure at the UN from 1992-1995 and specified that, particularly in 1994-95, Iran was instrumental in helping India counter Pakistan-backed human rights resolutions in Geneva. Introducing the topic, Dr. Deepika Saraswat highlighted the context of Iran’s return to a ‘Look East’ strategy and emerging middle power behaviour. She stated that Iran preferred Eastern partnerships over the West, advocating closer ties with neighbouring nations and collaboration with countries sharing common goals. As a Persian country, Iran desired to find a home in Asia to overcome identity isolation. Iran’s preference for the term “West Asia” over “Middle East” indicates this transformative paradigm. Dr. Saraswat further pointed out that Iran strategically channels its investments in Asia, forging alliances with rising powers such as China, India, and Russia. Iran is seeing growing convergence between East, Central, West and South Asian regional systems. Dr. Saraswat highlighted the significance of Iran’s outlook in the evolving geopolitical landscape where mega connectivity projects are seen cooperatively, considering it an opportunity. Iran has placed development-security connections and regional connectivity at the forefront of its regional cooperation initiatives. The Speaker outlined multiple definitions of middle powers to contextualise Iran’s position. Middle powers possess the military and strategic strength requisite to elicit support from great powers during peacetime. Although they may not emerge victorious against great powers in times of conflict, these middle powers can inflict disproportionate costs upon them. She articulated that being categorised as a middle power involves possessing specific capabilities, adopting a particular attitude, and asserting a distinct national identity. To analyse Iran’s behaviour, Dr. Saraswat used the concept of emerging middle powers, especially in the post-Cold War era context. Emerging middle powers possess substantial relative power advantages over their smaller neighbours. These nations manifest dissatisfaction with their current standing and aspire to carve an independent trajectory guided by their interests, values, and ambitions for regional and global influence. Notably, many of these middle powers have historical and cultural backgrounds that align with the concept of civilisational states. She highlighted that revisionist emerging middle powers actively seek to reshape the prevailing international order, often aligning themselves with revisionist great powers in pursuit of their objectives. Iran has positioned the “Look East” policy or “Asia orientation” as a central focus within incumbent Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s led foreign policy framework. The formalisation of Iran’s deepening engagement with Eur(Asia) was marked by its full membership approval in the SCO during the 21st summit, a development Dr. Saraswat identified as a significant milestone in Iran’s evolving regional strategy. Positioned as a middle power, Iran has demonstrated several key behaviours, as outlined by the speaker: Firstly, Iran has actively embraced “Asian multilateralism” by participating in regional institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Initially joining as an Observer in 2004, Iran applied for full membership in 2008, ultimately achieving it in 2023. Dr. Saraswat contextualised this Iranian initiative within the institutional balancing framework, replacing conventional military means with a focus on leveraging multilateral institutions to gain power and influence in world politics. Ebrahim Raisi’s address at the UNGA in 2023, envisioning a novel and equitable world order rooted in regional cooperation, was cited as evidence of Iran’s commitment to this approach. The Speaker noted that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, coupled with the subsequent takeover by the Taliban, has not only highlighted the diminishing influence of the US in shaping the regional order but has also triggered a realignment in the regional geopolitical landscape. Iran’s involvement in the 3+3 regional cooperation format to resolve problems of the South Caucasus without the interference of extra-regional and Western countries is a part of its regional diplomacy. Secondly, Iran has employed its civilisational identity and values to construct an ideational strategy to foster an Asian regional security community. Dr. Saraswat highlighted Iran’s practice of framing bilateral ties with Asian powers, including India and China, in civilisational terms. Iran’s leaders have offered a conception of Asia as comprising diverse civilisations and cultures, emphasising regional cultural and ideational autonomy and rejection of the Western normative universalism based on liberal democracy. The call for endogenous security and Asian unity by Iran was noted to align with the Chinese President’s ‘new Asian security concept,’ emphasising the leadership of Asians in Asian affairs. The Speaker also mentioned Iran’s effort toward displacing Turkiye’s ethnic-linguistic narrative of pan-Turkism. Thirdly, drawing from its notion of geographical centrality, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively connecting transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by China, Russia, and India. Iran considers itself a civilisational crossroad in the Silk Road narrative. The Speaker argued that Iran looks at the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with both optimism and fear as BRI proposes to address the development deficit but can have adverse geopolitical implications. BRI may lead to Russia-China’s ‘Great Game’ and can have implications for Iran’s transit potential and bargaining power in Central Asian energy markets. This role underscores Iran’s significance in facilitating broader regional cooperation and integration. Dr. Saraswat also emphasised Iran’s declared foreign-policy priority of developing friendly cooperative relations with Central Asian countries and its pivotal role as a ‘gateway’ in the INSTC. Furthermore, Iran’s ‘bridge’ role in projects such as BRI, the Eurasian Economic Union, and INSTC was underscored, emphasising the Iranian focus on the complementary nature of these initiatives rather than their competitive dynamics. Dr. Saraswat noted that Iran is actively articulating a conspicuous regional role in (Eur)Asia by promoting regional autonomy, aligning with the shared objectives of Russia and China. Notably, Iran’s observable effort is to enhance its geoeconomic ties with the three principal actors in the region, namely China, Russia, and India. This strategic engagement aims to mitigate the potential challenges of multipolar rivalry and the prospect of Chinese-led hegemonic regionalism. Prof. A. K. Ramakrishnan offered positive feedback on the paper, commending its logical argumentation and contribution to comprehending Iran’s (Eur)Asia policy. He suggested additional nuances to enhance the analysis, emphasising the need to highlight Iran’s quest for both strategic and regional autonomy. Encouraging the inclusion of major trends characterising emerging middle powers, he underscored the importance of considering major powers entering the geopolitical space as Iran navigates through it. The impact of sanctions and isolation on Iran’s economy, along with resulting constraints in foreign relations, particularly with the West, was noted. Prof. Ramakrishnan stressed the significance of contextualising Iran’s power positioning as an Emerging Middle Power within the context of its historical isolation. He also highlighted the guiding principles of Iran’s foreign policy, focusing on its revolutionary nature and the pursuit of a dignified existence. Further suggestions included exploring East-West dimensions, considering Iran’s call for unity and its role in the non-aligned movement within the paper. The importance of recognising Iran as an ideological state, with domestic politics playing a role in its ideological revivalism, was emphasised. The recommendation to include immediate neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, aimed at providing a more comprehensive understanding of Iran’s foreign relations. Prof. Ramakrishnan concluded by stating the paper connects conceptual aspects with empirical descriptions and acknowledged the paper’s strength lies in capturing the intricate dynamics of Iran’s foreign policy. Dr. Meena Singh Roy suggested that the author include a brief abstract and mention that the paper is part of a larger project. The need to clarify the theoretical focus in the title and introduce the hypothesis early on was emphasised. Dr. Roy commended the analytical rigour of the paper but recommended a reconsideration of subtitles for reader comprehension. Acknowledging the paper’s extensive use of primary references, she suggested supplementary readings for a practical understanding of Iran’s foreign policy. Dr. Roy highlighted Iran’s strategic adaptability and sophistication, emphasising the importance of understanding its use of strategic assets. She proposed exploring how the international system perceives Iran, particularly its acceptability in regional groupings like the SCO. Additionally, Dr. Roy called for a precise analysis to determine whether Iran has attained emerging middle power status. It was suggested that concepts like emerging middle power should be explained early in the paper, along with clarifying Iran’s narrative regarding (Eur)Asia due to the region’s vastness. Addressing Iran’s regional interests, she recommended specifying its focus on the INSTC over the Silk Route and assessing its aspirations for regional power status. Dr. Rajorshi Roy noted that the author has adeptly navigated the complexities of evolving issues, intricate power dynamics, and contestations within the paper. The incorporation of International Relations theories was noted as a strength, rendering the analysis more credible and nuanced in deciphering Iran’s role in (Eur)Asia. Dr. Rajorshi suggested expanding the section on emerging (Eur)Asian politics to include issues related to Central Asian countries, given their significant relevance. Additionally, he recommended examining whether Iran possesses the capacity to actualise its identity as a revisionist power and raised questions about whether Russia and China would relinquish space for Iran. Furthermore, Dr. Rajorshi underscored the importance of exploring the role of the SCO in the context of Eur(Asian) governance, considering it as a potential backbone in this regard. Dr. Jason Wahlang raised the issue of the possibility of China overtaking Russia in the region due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, citing the Chinese base in Tajikistan as an illustrative example. Dr. Wahlang emphasised the importance of assessing whether Iran could capitalise on these shifting dynamics in the long term. Additionally, he recommended delving into Iran-Turkiye relations, particularly in terms of civilisational connections and cultural aspects. Dr. Wahlang highlighted Iran’s role as a Caspian nation alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, suggesting that further exploration of this aspect would enhance the paper’s value. He also proposed addressing Iran’s focus on non-traditional security issues, specifically related to water, considering the Aral Sea and Amu Darya. Prof. Gulshan Dietl commenced her remarks with the poignant quote, “today is the best of times, and today is the worst of times,” emphasising Iran’s vulnerable position in its immediate neighbourhood. She recommended a clear definition of ‘(Eur)Asia,’ as it is integral to the paper’s title, and encouraged the author to provide her own interpretation of an emerging regional middle power. Prof. Dietl highlighted the relevance of using ‘West Asia’ based on its geographical placement, referencing Jawaharlal Nehru’s critique of ‘Middle East’ as a colonial term. Considering Iran’s global impact, Prof. Dietl acknowledged its significant energy resources in proximity to Central Asia but underscored the challenges arising from linguistic and religious differences with neighbouring countries. This isolation, she noted, sheds light on Iran’s support for entities like Hezbollah, Houthis, and the Palestinians. Prof. Dietl succinctly outlined challenges faced by Iran, including sanctions, which limit its foreign relations, domestic concerns over election outcomes, and controversies surrounding issues such as Hijab. She highlighted slogans reflecting domestic sentiments, such as “Not Gaza, Not Lebanon; I will die for Iran,” and observed Iran’s outreach to revisionist major powers like China and Russia. In the broader context of changing world order, Prof. Dietl emphasised the constraints faced by Iran, particularly domestic challenges, during a time when even the United Nations is under scrutiny. Q&A Session The Q&A session delved into various themes, encompassing Iran’s identity as a theological revolutionary state, the reliability of information about Iran on social media platforms, definitional and conceptual aspects of emerging middle power, the nuanced relationship between (Eur)Asia and the security order, the historical context of the Iranian revolution, Iran’s ideological positions in relation to other countries, and the constraints impeding Iran’s realisation of emerging middle power status. Dr. Saraswat addressed and responded to the comments and questions raised during this comprehensive discussion. This report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Technology Development Fund of DRDO: Challenges and Opportunities	October 23, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Mr. Arvind Khare, IDAS, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Technology Development Fund of DRDO: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 23 October 2023. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive Summary Mr. Khare highlighted the crux of the Technology Development Fund (TDF) scheme, a flagship programme of the Ministry of Defence (MoD), being executed by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) for attaining self-reliance by promoting indigenously developed technologies and to further research and development culture in the private industries in India. Detailed Report Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.) commenced the meeting by providing some insights on the TDF scheme and placed in context the issue of earmarking 25 per cent of Defence R&D budget for private industry and academia. Mr. Arvind Khare noted that the TDF scheme is a Grant - in - Aid programme and noted that it is a step towards Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence and empowering the defence research and development ecosystem through industrial participation. The presentation provided the chronology of the TDF scheme, the involvement of users in the TDF development process and the benefits of TDF to the industry. Mr. Khare then went on to detail the process involved in the flow of funds under the TDF scheme and the criteria for evaluating the projects under TDF. He specified some of the various projects awarded under the scheme, the success stories as well as business opportunities and the future of the TDF scheme. The presentation also enumerated aspects relating to raising fund limit for a TDF project from ₹10 crores to ₹50 crores and earmarking 25 percent Defence R&D budget for funding industry, startups, and academia. The presentation examined aspects relating to technology management and the DRDO. Mr. Khare ended his presentation by pointing out the constraints and challenges in the TDF scheme and suggested some policy insights to overcome those challenges. Questions and Comments Discussion in the Q&A session related to the success rate of projects by the DRDO under the scheme, learning of best practices from organisations like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States, and flagging of issues relating to scheme implementation, DRDO-private industry interactions, among other issues. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, began his remarks by complimenting the Speaker for his presentation on an important subject, and urged all the scholars in MP-IDSA to work more on areas concerning defence and technology. He pointed out that the issues that were discussed by the Speaker were very relevant to Atmanirbharta in Defence manufacturing. The Director General highlighted that it is important for the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), the private sector and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to have a greater technology focus as well as invest in indigenous R&D. The nature of technology development in the corporate sector role was also flagged, where incubation and innovation centres are established in promising and vital areas for commercial gains and larger public use. Mr. Khare responded to the comments and observations made by the Director General and the scholars. He added that the technology that emanates through innovations from projects under the TDF scheme would be a joint property of that industry partner and the DRDO. He also added that there is a need to make TDF scheme more hassle free for industry and startups by streamlining the procedure and continuing with the Grant - in - Aid mode of funding.
Fellows Seminar on "Iran and the Emerging (Eur) Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power"	October 26, 2023		1400 to 1630 hrs	Fellows' Seminar	MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar on Thursday, 26 October 2023. The Venue is Seminar Hall 1, Second Floor. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, will present a Paper titled “Iran in the Emerging (Eur) Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power.” Professor Gulshan Dietl, former Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University will Chair the Seminar and conduct the proceedings. The External Discussants for the Paper are Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, Centre for West Asian Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Senior Fellow (West and Central Asia), Tillotama Foundation. The Internal Discussants are Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre and Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst with the West Asia Centre is the rapporteur. The Seminar will commence at 2.30 PM and end at 4.30 PM.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Hamas Terrorist Attacks on Israel	October 16, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Hamas Terrorist Attacks on Israel” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 16 October 2023. Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive Summary Analysing the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 reveals a strategic complexity marked by unprecedented land, air, and sea infiltrations. The success of Hamas hinged on meticulous planning, exploiting misconceptions, and diverting attention from Gaza. Israel responded with Operation Swords of Iron, drawing regional and international reactions. India has shown strong support to Israel. Concerns about Hamas’s military headquarters and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)’s humanitarian issues loom large, while analysts caution against a ground invasion in Gaza. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Pradhan provided a succinct overview of the current war between Israel and Hamas. Notably, Hamas initiated a deadly terrorist attack, resulting in the loss of 1400 Israeli lives. In response, Israel declared war, initiating Operation Swords of Iron, causing the death of around 2500 Palestinians. Dr. Pradhan highlighted intelligence and surveillance failures that caught the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) off guard. Acknowledging the gravity of the situation, the US Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken visited Israel and neighbouring countries as part of regional diplomacy efforts to manage the crisis. Dr. Rajiv highlighted the unprecedented nature of the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023, employing land, air, and sea infiltrations. He emphasised the use of drones, rockets, and paragliders to bomb Israeli observation towers and weapons systems. Rockets were fired at southern and central Israel, providing cover for terrorists on paragliders who flew over the border. Large explosive devices were used to breach the border fence, allowing hundreds of terrorists to infiltrate and attack Israeli Army posts and nearby communities. Reasons cited by Hamas for the attacks included ending perceived unaccountability, opposition to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank since 1967, protest against Israeli police raids on Al Aqsa Mosque, and objection to the detention of thousands of Palestinians. Dr. Rajiv highlighted that since its formation in 1987, Hamas rejected peace negotiations and adhered to an uncompromising stance outlined in its Charter, emphasising non-recognition of any part of Palestine under Zionist occupation. According to the Speaker, the success of Hamas on 7 October 2023 can be attributed to meticulous subterfuge, strategic planning, and effective execution. At the same time, a disproportionate focus on the West Bank and escalating violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinians diverted Israeli security forces’ attention from Gaza. Dr. Rajiv stated that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war, responding to what he termed a “murderous surprise attack” by Hamas. Operation Swords of Iron ensued, marked by a reestablishment of border control, massive airstrikes, and the mobilisation of 360,000 reservists, slightly less than the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The immediate war aim is to regain complete military control over Gaza, reminiscent of the pre-Oslo era. Israel’s historical precedence of ground invasions, such as Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 and Operation Protective Edge in 2014, involved substantial mobilisation of reservists, ground incursions, and casualties on both sides. Regarding the international response, Dr. Rajiv reported that a joint statement by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy unequivocally condemned Hamas for acts of terrorism and affirmed support for Israel’s defence efforts. Russia and China expressed deep concern over the conflict’s escalation. As for the regional response, Egypt urged maximum restraint, Saudi Arabia called for an immediate halt, the UAE sought a ceasefire, and Bahrain denounced civilian kidnappings. Turkiye’s Erdogan criticized the Gaza bombing, while Iran’s Khamenei spoke of eradicating the “usurper Zionist regime.” Qatar held Israel responsible, Kuwait blamed Israel, and Morocco condemned attacks on civilians. Dr. Rajiv explained Israel’s security response to the protracted conflict with Gaza. The IDF’s use of force till now was a strategy of attrition to debilitate enemy capabilities and occasional large-scale operations for temporary deterrence. With reference to domestic and regional implications, he highlighted the potential hardening of Israel’s political stance and uncertainties surrounding the two-state paradigm. He further stated that the increased force profile of the US and UK in the Eastern Mediterranean adds to the complexity of the regional strategic situation. Regarding India’s stance, Dr. Rajiv reported that India expressed solidarity with Israel, unequivocally condemning terrorism and emphasising adherence to international humanitarian law. He also highlighted India’s commitment to a sovereign Palestinian state. Comments and Questions Discussion in the Q&A session pertained to the role of media narrative and disinformation, Israel’s possible action against the Hamas leadership in Qatar, Iran and Turkiye, role of the UNRWA, China’s approach towards the conflict in light of its recent regional mediation efforts, role of Turkiye and Egypt, Iran’s role in enhancing the overall capability of Hamas, dent in the image of Israel’s invincible security, and the viability of the two-state solution. Report has been prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Report on the Monday Morning Meeting Titled: The Ransomware Resurgence and Other Trends in Cybersecurity	September 25, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “The Ransonware Resurgence and Other Trends in Cyber security” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 25 September 2023. The Session was moderated by Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary. The presentation started with opening remarks by Mr. Sharma. He defined ransomware as a type of malware attack that leads to the victim losing access to data/ device unless they paid a ransom to have their data decrypted. He cited that there had been a 53% increase in ransomware attacks in India compared to the previous year. They were mainly targeting the critical infrastructures, especially the healthcare sectors. All these attacks were carried out by well-trained professionals, mainly targeting financial institutions, trading centres, and other pivotal infrastructures. All these kinds of activities usually create a dilemma for victims' organisations about whether they should go for recovery and pay the ransom, and whether there is any guarantee of getting back the data even after paying the ransom. The third and most crucial point is whether insurance coverage should be included for paying ransom? For example, in the US, companies use first-party liability and insurance coverage to pay ransom amounts. Saying all this, the moderator invited Dr. Cherian for his presentation. Detailed Report Dr. Cherian began his presentation by also citing a definition. He described ransomware as “a type of cyber-attack where malicious software encrypts a victim's data and demands payment, usually in cryptocurrency, from the victim to decrypt the data or restore access to their system." Further, he spoke about a few techniques by which these external players are gaining access to high-level merchandised firms through phishing emails, remote desktop protocol, credential abuse, exploitable software vulnerabilities, URLs, third-party apps, compromised websites and drive-by downloading. And what their motives are, and so forth. Following this, he delved deep into the role of the nation-state actors, for example, the Russian ransomware gangs, their network allies, and the role of North Korea. He also talked about Ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) as a business model for criminal enterprises that allows anyone to sign up and use tools for conducting ransomware attacks. Like other as-a-service models, such as software-as-a-service (SaaS) or platform-as-a-service (PaaS), RaaS customers rent ransomware services rather than owning them as in a traditional software distribution model. Ransomware locks up a victim's system or files, usually via encryption. The victim can only regain access to their data once they pay a ransom to the parties behind the ransomware attack. Ransomware has become a significant industry in the criminal underworld, worth billions of dollars annually. While many imagine that the people behind cyber-attacks like ransomware are highly skilled programmers, many attackers do not write their code and may not even know how to do so. Cybercriminals with coding skills often sell or rent out the exploits they develop instead of using them. Ransomware is just one area of the cyber-crime industry with an "as-a-service" model. Attackers can also rent DDoS tools, subscribe to lists of stolen credentials, hire botnets, or rent banking trojans, among other services. Given below is a flow chart showing how RAAS works. Apart from this, he also discussed triple extortion. As its name says, the triple extortion ransomware adds another layer to the attack. An extension of the double extortion attack, using most of its tactics, this time, the malicious actor will choose an extra pressure point to get his victim to pay. In addition to data encryption (the first layer) and the threat of leaking essential data (the second layer), the cybercriminal can add another tactic of his choosing (the third layer). The most common tactics are going after the victim's clients, partners, affiliates, patients, associates, suppliers, etc., with ransom demands so their data will not be leaked, launching an additional Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDoS) over the target, or making phone calls to persuade them. He elaborated that to counter these criminal activities, a virtual meeting was held in Washington DC on 13 and 14 October 2021 to pinpoint an effective way to counter these malicious activities. The meeting was led by the United States and paved the way for the creation of the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) which seeks to enhance international cooperation to combat the growth of ransonware. Five working groups were created; a group looking at Resilience led by Lithuania and India, Disruption led by Australia, Illicit Finance led by the UK and Singapore, and Partnership by Germany. The second CRI was held in Washington DC from 31 October to 1 November 2022. At the second ICRI Summit, members re-affirmed their joint commitment to building collective resilience to ransomware, cooperating to disrupt ransomware and pursue the actors responsible, countering illicit finance that underpins the ransomware attacks, and continuing to cooperate internationally across all elements of the ransomware threat. The third ICRI summit will be on 31 October 2023, in which 47 countries will participate. Finally, he raised the issue of why ransomware was not getting the attention it deserved in India. He inferred that there were other bigger cyber threats, including that from UPI fraud. Data about the Cybercrime Distribution Trend in India showed that UPI fraud cases are accelerating. Discussion The participants raised very vibrant and diversified queries, especially regarding aspects of using ransomware against other nations. Its possibilities and implications were discussed. Along with this, how ransomware attacks are affecting the sovereignty of countries was also discussed. Mr. Saurav Raj Pant, a Visiting Fellow from Nepal, raised a question regarding the digital literacy of India, and Dr. Cherian Samuel gave a very pin-pointed answer. He said that, when it comes to digital literacy, it is more or less individual. There needs to be a specific literacy for that. General awareness is sadly still lacking, which is why a lot of attacks are taking place. Though the actors are so sophisticated they can very well manipulate fear which is more or less interrelated to the psychological aspects of the victims. All the call centre scams are part of it, their modus operandi changes from time to time. Therefore, even if we all are informed there can be a high chance of being scammed. Overall the discussion was highly informative. Report prepared by Ms. Gayathri Pramod Panamoottil, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

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