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Monday Morning Meeting on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” | July 04, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Pradeep S. Gautam, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 4 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive SummaryG7 remains one of the most important multilateral bodies to set the global agenda and tackle emerging challenges. However, it is also faced with internal incoherence on certain issues. As its share in the global GDP has gradually declined, it has chosen to engage more and more with like-minded democracies such as India, in furtherance of its agenda. India must use G7 and similar multilateral bodies, including World Trade Organisation (WTO), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and G20 to maximise its national interests. Although at the same time, it has increasingly become difficult to arrive at a consensus in these multilateral forums. Hence, there is a need to engage countries bilaterally and in smaller groups as well. This effort may only bear fruit if accompanied with necessary domestic reforms. Detailed ReportDr. Rao introduced the topic of the Monday morning meeting by underlining the values and attributes at the core of G7, particularly in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. She also spoke about the group’s most recent meeting in June 2022 and the 28-page communiqué released by the participating leaders, which primarily focused on China and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) programme to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Following the brief introduction, the chair gave the floor to Mr. Gautam. The speaker initially delved into G7’s historical context, i.e., its emergence in response to the 1970s economic crisis and its evolution as a multilateral forum to address global challenges. He also delineated the grouping’s operational framework and its overlapping work with organisations, including the WTO, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and G20. Mr. Gautam further addressed G7’s meeting in Elmau, Germany organised between 26 to 28 June 2022 and laid out the empirical data concerning the inter-governmental forum’s share of the global gross domestic product (GDP) between 1975 and 2020. He mentioned that its highest share of the GDP was visible during the Clinton Presidency. He also examined how there exists an overlap between G7 and G20’s membership. Moving further, the speaker elaborated on issues that have been of vital significance to G7 leaders, primarily taxation of e-commerce multi-national corporations, global infrastructure, global financial stress, and trade and supply chains. In that context, he looked at how the member states have responded to these challenges, the implications for India, and how the latter can move forward regarding these matters of vital concern. Finally, he flagged a few key issues specific to India, including how it requires more data-driven analysis on economic issues, the continuation of a balanced budget, and more reforms to attract global capital. In addition, India’s strength in its domestic economy may help it negotiate better internationally. The speaker underscored the pros and cons of the PGII vis-à-vis the BRI. He also discussed economic distress in developing countries due to COVID lockdowns, the Ukraine war, increasing energy prices, and finally increasing interest rates in the US. While discussing that, he highlighted increasing inflation and interest rates, and the threat of recession in the G7 countries, limiting their bandwidth for international intervention for the next 2-3 years. The speaker highlighted the need for capacity building in negotiating trade deals and effective use of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), trade, and industrial policy to attract international investment and become part of the global supply chain. In addition, the speaker raised other issues of primary importance centred around energy and food security, climate change, and sustainable development. After the speaker brought his presentation to a close, the chair thanked him for his insightful remarks and opened the floor to questions and comments from the audience. The question-and-answer session highlighted diverse perspectives rooted in a detailed analysis of the issue discussed during the meeting. Some of the crucial themes highlighted during the session are as follows: –
This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar | June 20, 2022 | 1000 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 20 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Senior scholars, research analysts and interns of the institution were in attendance. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBangladesh’s initiation of arbitration proceedings separately against India and Myanmar, under UNCLOS, resulted in the creation of a “grey area”, having overlapping continental shelf and exclusive economic zone rights, between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This “grey area”, which is yet to be resolved, hampers maritime security and development of the Bay of Bengal region. DETAILED REPORT Dr. Smruti commenced the session by highlighting that land and maritime boundary settlements between India and Bangladesh continue to remain incomplete. With this context, she introduced the audience to grey areas and the overlapping Continental Shelf and EEZ claims in the Bay of Bengal region. She also noted that the discussion on grey areas cannot remain limited to India and Bangladesh and requires a trilateral focus by featuring Myanmar. DISCUSSION Following Capt. Anurag’s presentation, MP-IDSA scholars had the opportunity to provide their valuable inputs. Dr. Smruti raised questions with regard to Bangladesh’s objections at the CLCS. With references to individual political figures in Bangladesh, she stated that the grey area issue needs domestic contextualisation. She added that the issue is also interlinked to Myanmar’s complicated relationship with Bangladesh and its policies on the Rohingya refugees. In her remarks, Dr. Smruti highlighted that the grey area issue between India and Bangladesh also raises doubts on the ‘Blue Economy’ partnership between the two states. In response to her queries, Capt. Anurag answered that India’s submission at the CLCS can be processed only after Bangladesh and Myanmar withdraw their objections. He reiterated that the impact of the complex relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar can be countered by adopting a phase-by-phase bilateral discussion approach. The report has been prepared by Ms Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Interaction with a Media Delegation from the Maldives | May 27, 2022 | Other |
A media delegation from the Maldives, accompanied by Mr. Karan Yadav, First Secretary, Embassy of India, Male, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 27 May 2022, to have an interaction with the Institute. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA; Maj. Gen. (Dr). Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA; Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow; Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Research Fellow; Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow; Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow; and Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions. Executive SummaryThe interactive discussion primarily centered around the following issues– India’s neighbourhood policy under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, the historical and contemporary ties between India and the Maldives, and the increasing and predatory Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the littoral states. Detailed ReportThe event ensued with the Director General’s introductory remarks, welcoming the media delegation to the institute, where he recalled his most recent visit to their country in March 2020. He also mentioned the joint webinar organised by MP-IDSA in conjunction with the South East Asia Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism, Kuala Lumpur, that had taken place earlier that morning, titled “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia.” He also laid out a detailed outline of MP-IDSA’s objectives, mandate, research agenda and its existing infrastructure that facilitates research in diverse areas. The Director General discussed the initiative he took during his stint at the National Security Council Secretariat, where exercise “Dosti,” between the coast guards of India and the Maldives was expanded to include Sri Lanka. He underlined that under Prime Minister Modi, India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” has gained prominence, and its commitment to Maldives has remained intact. India’s policy towards Maldives is based on historic socio-cultural ties that the two countries have shared. It does not have a predatory attitude in its assistance as displayed by some other countries. Additionally, he emphasised how growth and prosperity have moved beyond the Asia-Pacific region to include South Asia and South-East Asia. Today, Bangladesh and, particularly the Maldives, are outperforming India in certain specific sectors. Due to its high standard of living and per capita income being higher than other countries in South Asia, the Maldives has done exceedingly well. Furthermore, it is at the confluence of vital sea channels through which a vast amount of global trade traverses. However, its dependence on tourism to generate revenue and its scattered geography have emerged as two crucial challenges for the island nation. Repatriation and rehabilitation of terrorist fighters returning from conflict zones, confronting foreign influences, and radicalisation are also some of the notable challenges it faces. The Director General even underscored how major powers such as the United States of America, France, and the United Kingdom, have maintained their presence in the Indo-Pacific region in several ways, including through their military presence. Today, Russians are also displaying renewed interest and are engaged in bilateral and trilateral exercises. He also emphasised that the current President of the United Nations General Assembly, Abdulla Shahid, will significantly contribute to the international body due to his vast expertise and experience. The following points emerged from the floor during discussion. One of the central themes, specifically regarding growing Chinese influence, was taken up, and it was discussed whether or not that is a factor in determining the scale of India’s involvement in the region. It was concluded that India has always been focused on neighbourhood growth and prosperity irrespective of China's activities. Prime Minister Modi’s policy of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” reflects this. At the same time, one must understand that China’s rise is linked to its vast investments and is guided by its growing strategic interest. Its presence in the South Asian region contradicts its historical positioning and has only occurred over the past two decades. Therefore, China must be transparent about its investment and should not create a dependency-based relationship akin to Sri Lanka. While India has reservations about Chinese actions, it does whatever it can to support its neighbours to chart an alternative path, including extending lines of credit without any strings attached. It has built a hospital in Malé and is currently involved in 45 projects in the country, largely micro projects, in contrast to China which is only involved in grander projects like the airport and port development. Another difference between the Indian and Chinese involvement is that while the former promotes inclusive and holistic growth, the latter can be characterised as predatory, aggressive, and fomenting divisiveness. Moreover, instead of cooperation with other countries, China has chosen the path of isolation. In the western Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Chinese boats engage in illegal fishing in most months of the year. Therefore, the joint statement made by the QUAD partners in their recent summit even appealed to spread maritime awareness and halt illegal fishing, which has several ecological implications, including oil spills. Moreover, China’s rise in the IOR has to be understood by the factors driving its strategy. Overarching trade interests, access to Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and ambition to mine crucial resources like Cobalt embedded in the sea bed, for which it has taken acreage down south, require its presence in and control of the oceanic spheres. Maritime piracy has allowed it to establish its naval domination and follow a neo-colonial approach. It is necessary to realise that it wants to de-link from the global supply chains and create dependency of the international community on the Chinese supply chains through such initiatives, thereby shaping the world in their likeness. Transnational issues such as Islamist terrorism were also discussed. While this could be a challenge for India, it can become an existential threat for countries like Maldives due to the latter’s homogenous structure. As has been seen in the past, it becomes easier for non-state actors to stage a coup. The participants also took up the matter of “India Out” campaign, directed against India. It was concluded that it is a highly politicised campaign and does not reflect popular sentiment. The Maldivians are unconcerned with who invests in the developmental sectors as long as it benefits them. However, it is critical to analyse where such propaganda is originating from and who is funding such activities. It was also noted that India has no interest in maintaining a military presence in the island nation. Any such presence visible has always been at the behest of the Maldivian government, including in 1988, when the Indian Armed Forces thwarted a coup led by Abdullah Luthufi against the then President Abdul Gayoom. Indians came to his aid faster than the Americans, whose nearest military base, Diego Garcia, is located 1000 kilometres away, in far closer proximity. The session concluded with the possibility of future exchanges and a visit of the Indian delegation to the island country in the foreseeable future. Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre. |
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Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” | June 13, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 13 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. P. K. Pradhan, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars, research analysts and interns of MP-IDSA. Executive SummarySince 2021, Turkish foreign policy approach towards the West Asian region has seen significant alterations. Turkey is now reconciling its relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict underline a degree of foreign policy recalibration. The presentation highlighted the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy and focused on its reconciliation process towards the West Asian and North African region. While explaining the Turkish foreign policy recalibration, the speaker focused on the domestic, regional and international factors which have driven this change. Detailed ReportDr. Md. Muddassir Quamar started his presentation by giving an overview of Turkish foreign policy and defining the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These principles are neo-Ottomanism, pan-Islamism, strategic depth, zero-problem with neighbours and blue homeland. He further stated that Turkey’s approach towards the region contributed to geopolitical competition in the Middle East over the past decade. Following the principle of neo-Ottomanism and pan-Islamism, Erdogan has tried to achieve the glory of the Ottoman Empire and projected Turkey as a leader of the Islamic world. The doctrine of strategic depth asserts that Turkey should have greater influence in the areas around its borders and should expand its relations with the periphery. It also follows the zero-problem with neighbours policy which is part of its strategic depth doctrine. According to the speaker, the zero-problem with neighbours’ policy has proved to be a zero-friend policy for Turkey in West Asia. Turkey’s blue homeland policy focuses on Turkish influence in maritime domains, especially in the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. All these policies created a geopolitical quagmire in West Asia that got aggravated after the Arab Spring, where Turkey played a very crucial role as a major regional power in intensifying regional rivalries. This led to serious problems between Turkey and regional countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Israel. Dr. Quamar said that since 2021 there has been a noticeable shift in Turkish foreign policy towards the region. While highlighting the shifts, he explained the changing relations of Turkey with Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen a certain degree of change. With regard to the UAE, there have been important diplomatic visits between the two countries. In November 2021, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Turkey and this was reciprocated by President Erdogan’s visit to UAE in February 2022. The reconciliation process between Turkey and UAE has centred on deepening trade and economic relations, especially in the defence sector along with health, food security and climate change. Apart from economic issues, the two countries are also discussing regional issues of mutual interest, such as the situation in Libya and Syria. Similarly, relations between Turkey and Israel have also been changing. Though Operation Cast Lead and the Mavi Marmara Incident caused deterioration in relations between the two countries, in the last few years engagement between them has improved. Both the countries are having an exchange of high-level visits such as, Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey in March 2022. According to Dr. Quamar, the focus of these engagements is on improving energy, trade and economic ties. However, the Palestinian issues and Turkish indirect support to Hamas can be an issue of friction. Due to this reason, one cannot be certain about the success of the process of reconciliation between Israel and Turkey. According to Dr. Quamar, another important development from the Turkish foreign policy point of view has been the reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Both are trying to move ahead from the Khashoggi crisis that adversely impacted relations between the two. This reconciliation process also highlights that Turkey is ready to end the isolation of Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud from regional and international politics. Turkish foreign policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia has also been driven by economic factors. However, the speaker observed that there are issues which can derail the reconciliation process, namely, the competition between the two for global Islamic leadership. Though, Dr. Quamar underlined the uncertainty about whether Turkey will completely abandon the Muslim Brotherhood or not, he said that Ankara has shown willingness to be more accommodative towards the concerns of regional countries such as, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt which are sensitive about giving space to Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, similar to other countries, economic ties are a major point of focus of Turkish reconciliation with Egypt. While discussing the reasons for Turkish foreign policy recalibration, Dr. Quamar said that there are domestic, regional and international factors for this policy. However, the most important ones are domestic factors. The Turkish economy is going through a difficult time wherein inflation in the country has increased by 70 per cent. There has been a drop in the value of Lira and a rise in poverty. In addition, the country has also witnessed a decline in tourism and exports. Politically, it is the first time that the Turkish opposition is feeling confident in challenging Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The results of the 2019 municipal elections underlined that Erdogan’s support base is also shrinking. However, Dr. Quamar said that this might not be sufficient to replace Erdogan. According to him, another domestic political reason for recalibration is Turkey’s 2023 elections. While discussing the regional and international factors, Dr. Quamar said that the Abraham Accords (2020) have broken Turkish exceptionalism, because Turkey was the only country which had good relations with Israel, despite having diplomatic issues. According to him, the Abraham Accords which have initiated a regional process of normalisation of ties between Israel and the Gulf countries, might be a major reason for alteration in Turkey’s foreign policy. Furthermore, the end of GCC crises after the Al Ula Declaration contributed in changing its foreign policy approach. According to Dr. Quamar, there have been regional dialogues and talks such as those between Iran-Saudi Arabia, UAE-Syria and Egypt-Qatar. It seems Turkey is also following these regional trends. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis and change of administration in the US are other factors for alteration in Turkey’s approach towards the region. While discussing the implications, Dr. Quamar said it is difficult to say whether these recalibration efforts will ease regional tensions or they will sustain. He finally noted that the Turkish foreign policy approach provides India a window of opportunity in the economic and political domains. Important Points Made in the Q&A Session
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Eurasia & West Asia | Turkey, Foreign Policy | |||
Report on “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia” MP-IDSA – SEARCCT Joint Webinar | May 27, 2022 | Other |
The joint webinar on radicalisation in India and Malaysia was held on 27 May 2022 and was organised by MP-IDSA and SEARCCT, Malaysia. The Director-General MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Director-General SEARCCT, Ambassador Dato’ Ganeson Sivagurunathan delivered the opening remarks and chaired respective sessions of the programme. During the first session, Dr. Ahmad El-Muhammady Bin Muhammad Uthman El-Muhammady spoke on “Radicalisation in Malaysia.” He was succeeded by Mr. Supt Loo Chee Lum who spoke on “Capacity Building Programmes,” and Ms. Pa Arul Malar Palaniveloo who talked about “Youth & P/CVE - Counter Messaging, Social Media and Outreach.” During the second session, Shri Pradeep Gautam delivered his remarks on “The Threat of Religious Ideological Extremism in the Indian Subcontinent,” followed by Dr. Adil Rasheed who spoke on “India’s Counter Radicalisation: Measures and Programmes,” and Ms. Shruti Pandalai who spoke on “Combating Radicalisation in the Social Media: The Indian Experience.” India’s High Commissioner to Malaysia Shri B.N. Reddy also gave his comments which was followed by an interactive Q&A session. The webinar was concluded with closing remarks from the Deputy Director-General at MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and Deputy Director-General at SEARCCT, Ambassador Khairi Omar. Executive Summary:The session was helpful in bringing forth the issue of radicalisation and its impact from an inter-regional perspective. The speakers shared their insights on the nature of radicalisation in India and Malaysia which would be vital in developing counter strategies that address these specific areas. Despite robust programs in both countries on counter terrorism and counter radicalisation, it was agreed that regular updating with the evolving discourse is essential, and corresponding training of the personnel is therefore necessary. The issue of online radicalisation and role of technology both as a challenge and as a tool to fight radicalisation was elaborated upon. It was agreed that novel ways of reaching to the public by extremist groups will necessitate innovative ways by the governments in countering such narratives. Therefore, Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) will be an evolving methodology that grows in response to the tactics adopted by the extremist and radical groups. Detailed Report:Ambassador Chinoy began the session with his opening remarks and underscored the good relations between India and Malaysia, along with their shared concern over terrorism which has also impacted economic growth. He spoke of the increasing threat of terror groups’ access to Weapons of Mass Destruction and how that has worried governments. After the success of Taliban in Afghanistan, terrorist groups across the world have been emboldened. Ambassador Chinoy outlined the efforts India has made on working on legislation to curb terrorism, border management and elaborated on the impetus given to appropriate training of its law enforcement personnel to tackle such terrorist threats. India has also engaged with multilateral institutions and the UN to create frameworks on curbing terrorism, including pushing for a comprehensive global convention on terrorism. The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-IDSA. |
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Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Revisiting the Cyber Aspects of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict | June 06, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, in the Strategic Technologies Centre at the Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Revisiting the the Cyber Aspects of the Russia- Ukraine Conflict” at the Monday morning meeting held on 6 June 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in the attendance. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOver the past couple of months, the world has witnessed that conventional warfare has a brother in arms – namely cyber warfare. Microsoft’s report dated 27 April 2022 clearly underlined the extent of cyber attacks on Ukrainian soil. The effects of this are temporarily debilitating but it is bound to leave a permanent mark on the military strategy of any aggressor country in the years to come. DETAILED REPORTDr. Rajeesh Kumar, the moderator, during his opening remarks, introduced the attendees to the capability of Russian cyber malware to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. He also added that, this does not pertain only to the Russian-Ukraine war but every warfare has a cyber element present in it. DISCUSSIONDeputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi stated that the Russians were the first to recognise the criticality of information warfare to national security and cited the 2015 Russian National Security Strategy document to shed light on the centrality of this aspect. He also brought into attention the Crimean campaign and the extensive use of information warfare which was in turn meticulously studied by countries like UK and the USA. The US cyber command was given the status of a combatant command by the USA and the UK’s 77th brigade was turned into an information manoeuvre organisation as information is the lifeblood of the battlefield. He also highlighted the underplaying of the Russian cyber salvo by the media and the synchronisation between kinetic and cyber warfare domain. As a part of his closing remarks, he stressed upon the prospects of lessons for India in both in the defensive and offensive domain. |
Non-Traditional Security | Cyber Security, Russia-Ukraine Relations | |||
Panel Discussion on "Civil-Military Fusion in India” | June 14, 2022 | 1100 hrs | Other |
Event ReportThe Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a Panel Discussion on “Civil-Military Fusion in India” on Tuesday, 14 June 2022 at 1100h in the MP-IDSA Auditorium. The discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA who also delivered the opening remarks. The Keynote Address was delivered by Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla, PVSM, YSM, SM, ADC, (Retd.) ex GOC-in-C ARTRAC and discussants included Lt. Gen. C.P. Mohanty, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM (Retd.), former Vice Chief of Army Staff, Shri Sanjay Mitra, former Defence Secretary, Government of India and AVM Anil Golani (Retd.). The vote of thanks was delivered by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA. The event was attended by the scholars of MP-IDSA and distinguished serving and retired officers of the Indian Armed Forces, Ministry of Defence, scholars from prominent Think Tanks as also representatives from CII and private industry. The event was also live-streamed on YouTube. Executive Summary The concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) denotes the convergence of military and civilian resources and systems for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power both during war and peacetime. The circulation of resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia has been inadequate in India. There is an urgent need for opening up hitherto fore protected areas such as high-end technology defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. A revolving door mechanism between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’ and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. In the early years after Independence, the then prevailing political maxims of India discouraged entrepreneur zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars of wealth creation. Qualitative aggregation of resources and capacity from both the civil and military domains is the cornerstone of CMF. The granite walls that exist between the silos of civil and military institutions must be collapsed in order to allow seamless infusion of talent and capacities in the military, civil services, scientific community, academia, industries, domain experts, technologists and entrepreneurs. The ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic is a clear example of the interdependence of technology and global supply chains. The complex security challenges of the Twenty-First Century demand complex security responses. Detailed Report Col. Deepak Kumar, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA welcomed the forum by extending his warm wishes to the distinguished panellists, attendees and scholars from MP-IDSA. He described the concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) as the process of combining civil and military resources for achieving a very high level of technological competence. Col. Kumar stated that the civil society and military have corroborated in the past, especially during the Second World War in countries like the US, Japan and Germany. With these remarks, Col. Kumar welcomed Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA to deliver his opening remarks to the august gathering. Opening RemarksAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy began his opening remarks by defining the concept of CMF as the convergence of military and civilian resources for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power, both during war and peacetime. He described dual-use technologies and collaborations as the heart of civil-military confluence. The Director General pointed out that there have been several instances where military R&D and private enterprises have developed cutting-edge technologies and services that have been used in both the civilian and military domains. He stated that the CMF has gained prominence in recent years mainly due to an array of initiatives taken by Chinese President Xi Jinping towards enhancing CMF in China. The Director-General also brought out that the initiation of CMF in China predates the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had established defence industries in different parts of China during the Chinese Civil War itself. He stated that after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s the PRC increased its focus on CMF even further in order to achieve a high degree of self-reliance in diverse fields like atomic bombs, space and defence equipment. During the 1990s China’s defence industries also engaged in manufacturing consumer goods. He recalled that during this era the PLA, in order to raise funds for its modernisation drive, engaged in commercial activities like running hotels, resorts and golf clubs. Eventually, in 1998 the then Chinese President Jiang Zemin banned such activities and directed the PLA to focus on its core soldiering activities while assuring adequate funding for its modernisation efforts. Taking this into context, the Director General stressed that the Government must ensure adequate funding and resources for ensuring CMF develops in a manner that facilitates a nation in achieving its national objective. The Director General brought out that China is renowned for utilising its academia, scientists, students and entrepreneurs to gain knowledge and intelligence to further its strategic objectives. He highlighted the fact that CMF has been absorbed throughout the annals of history and averred that the foundation of British Colonialism in India was laid through the successful CMF between the British East India Company and the British Crown. He accentuated the fact that with the proliferation of dual-use technologies and the advent of niche technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics and drones the relevance and scope of CMF has been expanding. He brought out that the strategic discourse in India is centred only on jointness among the three services and the need for inclusion of the military into the higher decision-making structures of the Government. He suggested that there is an urgent need for opening up protected areas such as defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. He brought out/ stated that although the Government has taken many steps toward enhancing CMF, much more needs to be done. The Director General underscored the importance of the circulation of human resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia which has been inadequate in India. He opined that a revolving door system between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. He also suggested that India must evolve its own model for CMF given its historic experience, circumstances and resources. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy welcomed Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla to deliver the Keynote Address. Key Note Address Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla started his keynote address by recalling his brief stint in MP-IDSA in 2009 as a scholar pursuing research in the area of Civil-Military Relations (CMR). He also recalled the redundant nature of the discourse that then prevailed with regard to CMR in India. Gen. Shukla brought into perspective the evolution of CMF in India since its independence. He stated that the degree of paranoia and suspicion that existed between the civilian leadership and the military in the early years after Independence due to the military coups across India’s neighbourhood, greatly undermined the prospects of CMF in India. He also brought out that the then prevailing political maxims in India discouraged entrepreneurial zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars in wealth creation. Gen Shukla then went on to highlight the key components of comprehensive military power which include jointness among services and technological prowess. He stated that developing each of these characteristics involves decades of policy making and efforts to materialise them on the ground. This has been evident from India’s efforts to implement jointness among the three services. He pointed out that the current initiatives regarding CMF involve bringing together attributes and talents from diverse domains in the resolute pursuit of national security interest. Gen. Shukla then proceeded to the next segment of his address where he brought out some credible examples to illustrate CMF. The first example that he cited was that of the United States Army Futures Command (AFC) which was established as the Americans realised that they were falling behind in the technological and innovation game with China. The military-academic complex of China is posing a very serious threat to the famed military-industrial complex of the US. Gen. Shukla recalled his meeting with a General of AFC who described this military command as a public-private partnership. The rationale behind the conception of the AFC was to converge the best of both, the public and private sectors, for creating a culture of innovation and delivery. The AFC is strategically located in the city of Austin which is the capital of Texas and is considered to be America’s innovation hub. He described the AFC as a mature entrepreneurial incubator hub with access to cutting-edge talents. The AFC has been a top recruiter of talented students, professionals and entrepreneurs by capitalising on the robust startup ecosystem in Austin. He brought out that entrepreneurs like Elon Musk and his company SpaceX have been the prime driving force behind the revolutionary metamorphosis that the American Military-Industrial complex is currently undergoing. Gen. Shukla underscored that the AFC is an example that denotes the complexity of CMF that encompasses numerous layers and nuances. Panels Discussion First Discussant: Mr. Sanjay Mitra Important points made during Q&A session
The panel discussion was followed by a lively Q&A session and a vote of thanks by Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen.(Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) who stressed that self-reliance in developing cutting-edge military technology will hinge on the aggregation of India's civil, military, industry and academia. Key Takeaways
Report Prepared by Mr. R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Centre, and Dr. Jatin Kumar, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ | May 30, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ ” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 May 2022. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA. Executive Summary In the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi had described Quad as a force of good in terms of creating a positive vision for the nation. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that was unveiled a day before the summit is a major economic effort by the Quad nations to address the trade deficit among the nations in the region. The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures which can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade. Although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit. Detailed Report
The consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region was described by Cmde. Singh as the key highlight of Quad Summit. Making the assessment of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh inferred that the key focus of the Quad nations was on delivering the agendas that were agreed upon during the previous iterations of the summit. He also noted that through the joint statement the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment to work together for creating tangible benefits in the following areas:
Pointing out certain shortcomings in the Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that despite President Biden reiterating that his policy is sharply focused on managing China, there has been criticism that the Quad remains short on American fiscal and policy support. He stated that it has become clear that the Quad nations along with other nations of the region must supplement the shortcomings of the US. He brought out that the election of the Labor Government in Australia that has been known to be sympathetic towards China’s rise, may affect the nation’s future commitment towards Quad, despite the assurances of Mr. Anthony Albanese. On India, he stated that Russia not being explicitly mentioned in the Joint Statement is mainly due to India’s sensitivity and this signifies major divergence between India and the rest of the Quad nations. Cmde. Singh concluded his presentation by describing Japan as the most consistent nation among the Quad, as its core agenda remains unchanged, despite the change of three consecutive Prime Ministers.
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Military Affairs | ||||
Africa Day Webinar on “The African Union @ 20: Addressing Peace & Security Challenges” | May 24, 2022 | 1530 hrs | Other |
The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the African Studies Association of India (ASA India) organised an Africa Day Webinar on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges” on 24 May 2022 at 1530 hours IST. The welcome remarks were delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the special remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam, Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India. The introductory remarks were given by Professor Ajay Dubey. Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, chaired the panel discussion. The panelists included Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae, Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Dr. Alex Vines OBE and Ms. Ruchita Beri. The concluding remarks were delivered by Ambassador Shashank. Ms. Sindhu Dinesh proposed the vote of thanks. The webinar was attended by MP-IDSA scholars and guest attendees including African Heads of Missions in India, officials from the Ministry of Defence and members of various think tanks and universities. Executive SummaryThe webinar brought out perceptive inputs on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges”. Ambassadors, eminent scholars and experts from India and Africa served on the panel. As the African Union (AU) celebrates its 20th anniversary, its achievements in building regional consensus and efforts in transforming the continent were acknowledged. The peace and security challenges facing the African continent are diverse and complex. The AU faces several hurdles in dealing with these challenges. It must be recognised that foreign intervention is proving to be counter-productive and African countries must rely on themselves to solve the problems. Some speakers emphasised the continent's pressing governance and security issues. Under the auspices of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have engaged in violent conflicts using a variety of non-military tools. However, rising conflicts in Africa have demonstrated that APSA has failed to fulfil its mandate after more than a decade of existence. Many speakers further emphasised the significance of "African solutions for African problems". Another theme of the webinar was the importance of India-Africa relations and the necessity of keeping the pan-African tier of engagement. There was a strong push for South-South cooperation, particularly in areas such as clean technology, climate-resilient agriculture, and counter-terrorism cooperation. It was underscored that institutionalised mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD) were important in promoting India-Africa ties and must be regularised. Detailed ReportInaugural Session The webinar began with welcome remarks by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA). At the outset, he acknowledged the distinguished speakers and guests for their presence, the collaborative partner ASA India for jointly organising the webinar and extended a warm welcome to all the participants. Sharing that MP-IDSA has been organising an Africa Day Round Table for the last six years to commemorate Africa Day, he stated these dialogues had provided well-established platforms to deliberate on India-Africa relations. He remarked that the increased high-level visits to African nations over the last eight years and the initiatives taken under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Modi were aimed at transforming India’s ties with Africa. Ambassador Chinoy shed light on the historically close ties and maritime links of India and Africa, the role of diaspora, India’s steadfast support for Africa’s liberation from colonialism and apartheid, and the mutual support between the two in their struggle to attain independence. Stating that the theme of the webinar was timely and of great interest, he recognised the commendable achievements of the AU in resolving regional conflicts and promoting sustainable development. Mentioning the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food and energy security amidst the challenge of a pandemic, Ambassador Chinoy assessed that the three foremost important objectives for African nations will be economic recovery, healthcare and food security. Stating that security arrangements in Europe and the multilateral system had failed to deliver peace and security, he appreciated the AU’s efforts in building regional consensus. Ambassador Chinoy underscored the importance attached to institutionalised mechanisms like IAFS and IADD in promoting India-Africa ties. Stating that India is committed to being a reliable development partner for Africa, he highlighted India’s Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme, timely medical and humanitarian assistance to African countries during the pandemic, India’s contribution to the United Nations Peacekeeping (UNPK) operations in Africa and anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and shared maritime interests in developing a blue economy. He opined that strong India-Africa ties would strengthen multipolarity and expressed optimism that the webinar discussion would help build a better future together. Professor Ajay Dubey (Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Secretary General, ASA India) acknowledged the guests and participants on behalf of ASA India and thanked MP-IDSA for partnering with them. Underscoring that Africa is an important continent for India, he shed light on the old and diverse academic engagements in Indian universities on African studies. Stating that the AU celebrating 20 years is a culmination of the African dream of Pan-Africanism, he spoke about the initial formation of the organisation in 2002 and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) established in 1963. Remarking that peace and security were important objectives that African people have decided for themselves, Professor Dubey opined that in its approach to peace and security, the AU had learnt from organisations like South African Development Community (SADC) and others with similar objectives. Professor Dubey assessed that the major challenges for AU in addressing peace and security include terrorism in all its forms, internal terrorism, cross-border terrorism, religious terrorism and violent extremism; democratic backsliding which is giving rise to conflicts; threats to maritime security; challenges emanating from underdevelopment which include human security and climate security issues besides the pandemic and other common problems facing the continent. He agreed with Ambassador Chinoy that models like the IAFS and IADD were important and need to be continued. H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam (Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India) began his special remarks by thanking the webinar organisers and appreciated India’s steady commitment to developing India-Africa relations which he has witnessed during his tenure in India. He remarked that the webinar theme was timely and of critical importance to the African continent. Sharing the multifaceted peace and security challenges facing Africa that range from inter-state and intra-state political instability to foreign interventions and unemployment, he stated that the problems facing Africa were as diverse as its countries and people. He identified that there was no single or quick solution to these problems and opined that the contemporary history of Africa proves that external intervention was instead prolonging their problems. He argued that the best if not the only solution was for African countries to solve their problems themselves. Ambassador Woldemariam shed light on several other challenges like the arbitrary boundary demarcation by the colonisers which has led to separatist movements intertwined with terrorist activities. He underscored that Africa which accounts for 41 per cent of ISIS attacks has become the main target of international terrorism. He assessed that the economic cost of terrorism which has surged to USD 171 billion could have instead been invested in the continent’s development and betterment of livelihood. Ambassador Woldemariam strongly opined that multipronged and collective efforts would help address the root causes of conflict in Africa and achieve socio-economic development. He added that strong government, sound policy, efficient institutions and corruption-free civil service were also among the many requirements along with strengthening cooperation between regional and sub-regional organisations in Africa. Ambassador Woldemariam stated that all these efforts must be supported at the national and regional levels through institution building based on principles of partnership. Recognising AU’s efforts in transforming the continent, he argued that one of its hurdles was excessive dependence on foreign financial assistance which comes with conditions that compromise policy independence. Ambassador Woldemariam underscored that the spirit of South-South Cooperation should be bolstered to solve common problems and stated that India was at the heart of this framework. He concluded by calling for unconditional cooperation between India and Africa and expressed thanks to the Government of India for its support to African countries. Panel Discussion The panel discussion was chaired by Ambassador Anil Trigunayat (Former Ambassador of India to Libya and Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)). He started the discussion by stating that we frequently think of Africa as a single entity, despite the fact that this identity is fading. He continued by saying that Africa is a kaleidoscope of culture, civilization, colours, and beauty that one should see and experience. Ambassador Trigunayat mentioned how the pandemic has affected the African continent and how India has tried its best to be a part of Africa's and AU's journey, whether it is peacekeeping, capacity building, or providing infrastructural assistance at all times. He underscored that Prime Minister Modi's event in Kampala provided a clear vision for strengthening cooperation and mutual capacities in combating terrorism and extremism across the continent. Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae (Director General, Nigeria Institute for International Affairs, Nigeria) began by indicating that AU's principal goals have shifted from political integration to economic integration, the prosperity of African people, and the need for peace and security in the continent. In terms of addressing peace and security concerns, the first thing that has become increasingly evident is that peace and security challenges in Africa must be viewed holistically. As the world deals with the repercussions of the Ukraine crisis, it is clear that whatever occurs in one part of the world influences what happens in other areas of the world. Professor Osaghae also briefly noted the AU's peace and security architecture's admirable achievements, particularly the actions of the "Panel of the Wise" since its inception. African peace and security architecture also envisions a strong partnership between the EU and regional organisations such as SADC in South Africa and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in West Africa, among others. It has been more challenging than ever before, but Africa today recognises that terrorism, insurgency, and human rights violations are not merely African issues, but also significant global concerns. In his final remarks, Professor Osaghae emphasised that Africa would do well to handle what it is capable of doing, but Africa does better when it can collaborate with global players. He added that India has been a strong supporter of Africa, and that as the AU celebrates its 20th anniversary, partners like India will provide even more motivation to move forward. Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos (Chief Executive Officer of the South African Institute of International Affairs, South Africa) opened her presentation by expressing concern that the current geopolitical framework may exacerbate some of Africa's peace and security challenges. She explored institutional realignment, increased civil society engagement, operational efficacy, and financial independence in her speech. The lack of good governance has limited the government's authority to function, notably in preserving peace and security, as well as fostering economic growth and wealth creation, which are required to combat poverty and foster human development in the case of many African countries. Ms. Sidiropoulos went on to argue that rather than focusing primarily on hard-core peace and security concerns, African communities, citizens, and African leaders should prioritise good governance. Ms. Sidiropoulos concluded by referring to the Afrobarometer survey, which stated that unemployment remains one of the most pressing issues that Africans want their governments to address. As per the survey results, South Africans are dissatisfied with the government's handling of income disparities, price stability, and the economy in general. She emphasised that perceptions towards the AU are shifting, and the fundamental problem that African countries must tackle on their own is a lack of accountability in governance mechanisms. Dr. Alex Vines OBE (Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House, UK) began on a positive note by emphasising some of the AU's recent gains in terms of peace and security. He did, however, argue that there has been a sense of urgency to reform, evaluate, and rethink as the African continent transforms. He used the example of how standby forces do not always meet the issues that continental security necessitates. The Lake Chad basin countries' Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to collaborate against Boko Haram insurgents has been plagued with crises due to varying commitment to the force, budget issues, and fragmented planning. Dr. Vines reiterated that there have been areas of the AU vision that have been less impressive over the previous 20 years, notably on the legislative side. Traditional and technological organs have remained poor. The Pan-African Parliament and the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council are essentially advisory organisations with hardly any power. The AU's Peace and Security Council is faced with tough choices. He stated that the process of reforming the organisation, led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, had created discord among the Commission's leaders. For over five years, the procedure paralysed employees and damaged the AU Commission. In his closing remarks, he cited the Afro-barometer survey mentioned by Ms. Sidiropoulos, which stated Africans are frustrated that jobs are not being created on the continent and that 35 per cent of citizens regard the AU as completely irrelevant to their daily lives. This poses a significant challenge for the AU to become more people-centered, serving the needs of its own people. Ms. Ruchita Beri (Senior Associate and Coordinator, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA) shared her thoughts on three themes. She began by discussing the AU's recent achievements in terms of leadership in addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic, peaceful elections, and so forth. She also considered the significant hurdles that AU continues to face, such as, rise in conflict, unconstitutional changes of government and terrorism. Recognising the challenges that post-Covid-19 peacebuilding faces, she focused on how the AU might promote complementarities at the strategic and operational levels throughout the peace–development nexus. Ms. Beri drew attention to the growing threat of terrorism and the need for AU to work on concentrated and coordinated efforts to address the fundamental root causes of terrorism and violent extremism. She also discussed the continent's food security concerns and why the AU should prioritise agriculture and food security as the foundation for economic development and progress. She concluded her speech by bringing up India-Africa relations in the current scenario. Ms. Beri proposed the next IAFS should be held soon, in partnership with the AU. She also proposed that India invite African Union to open a mission in India. She hoped that the organisation shall redouble its efforts to confront the challenges. During the Q/A session, the panellists discussed the rational foundation of the lived values and attitudes entrenched in African ethics by situating them within global ethics and the developing new world order, analysing their validity, and potential contributions. Prof. Osaghae believes that African values are an essential component of global values. Furthermore, global values will be meaningless if there is no African or Asian component - all of those elements work together to generate the composite known as global values. Concluding Session Ambassador Shashank (Former Foreign Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India) made the concluding remarks at the webinar. He advised that African countries should consider utilising India's assets to promote their own internal cyber capabilities. He also recommended that if small and medium-sized enterprises in India and Africa worked together, they might set up with an aim to give employment, inspiration, and so on to young people, similar to the Nirvana movement that began in India. Ambassador Shashank suggested that people-to-people exchanges between India and Africa in a range of domains, including professional, legal, business, and grassroots occupations should be prioritised. The vote of thanks was proposed by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh (Research Analyst, MP-IDSA), after which the webinar concluded. The report was prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Bulbul Prakash, Intern, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN | Africa | |||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry” | May 23, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on ‘Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry’ at the Monday Morning meeting, which was held on 23 May 2022 at 10 AM in the auditorium. The session was moderated by Col. Manish Rana, SM, Research Fellow, and Centre Coordinator, Defence Economics and Industry Centre. Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and the scholars were in attendance. Executive SummaryThe Russian Federation’s defence industry, apart from different sectors of its economy, has been under various sanctions, primarily by the United States and the European Union, since 2014, in the aftermath of Moscow’s military interventions in Crimea. In the wake of its February 2022 military action in Ukraine, these sanctions have been further strengthened. The sanctions have targeted key Russian arms producing firms, their design bureaus, export organisations and their leadership, as well as the export and import of dual-use products. Given that India is one of the largest importers of Russian arms, it has been impacted by such sanctions. The presentation discussed the different US and EU sanctions, and the implications they have had for countries like Turkey and Indonesia. The discussion also pertained to the impact on India’s current arms procurement programmes from Russia. Detailed ReportDr. Rajiv began his presentation by noting that the Russian Federation is one of the major global arms exporters. Its share of global arms trade, however, has gradually decreased, from 26 per cent in 2011-15, to 19 per cent in 2017-21 (as per SIPRI data). India has been the largest importer of Russian arms, accounting for nearly 34 per cent of Russia’s exports, during 2011-21, followed by China, at about 13 per cent. As a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine since 2014, with the latest being the offensive that began in February 2022, Russia has been subject to sanctions measures by the United States, European Union and other countries. As part of European Union (EU) sanctions, more than a thousand individuals and 80 entities are subject to travel bans and asset freezes. Sanctions have targeted 70 per cent of Russia’s banking system (as per the EU’s contention) and have closed EU airspace and ports to Russian aircraft and vessels. Stricter export controls on dual-use goods have been imposed, restricting Russia’s access to dual-use technology. They have also banned exports of luxury goods and semi-conductors and imports of key Russian products like steel (with effect from August 2022), coal, cement, among other items. Sanction measures have also targeted Russian ‘dis-information’ actors. As regards defence and dual-use sectors, business transactions with key companies in the aviation, military and dual use, shipbuilding and machine building sectors are threatened to be sanctioned. It remains to be seen how effectively these sanctions will be implemented. Prior to the latest round of sanctions, the EU arms export and import ban has been in place since July 2014. However, more than EUR 900 million of defence trade took place between EU states and Russia, during 2010-20, with a significant portion of it contributed by countries like France, Germany and Italy. The 2014 ban does not prohibit servicing of spares etc. for contracts entered into prior to August 2014. There has been a reduction, though, in arms export licenses from EU states to Russia, decreasing from 940 in 2013 to 86 in 2020. EU states insist, therefore, that they have been strictly following the sanctions measures. As for US sanctions, it was pointed out that the Ukraine Freedom Support Act 2014 threatened sanctions against persons facilitating financial transactions with Russian producers, transferors and producers of defence articles. CAATSA, passed in August 2017 as a punitive measure against Russia (and Iran as well as North Korea), threatened sanctions for engaging in ‘significant’ transactions with the defence and intelligence sectors of Russia. Nearly 90 individuals and entities are part of the Sec 231(e), list of Specified Persons, transactions with whom will invite US sanctions. These include major Russian entities like Almaz-Antey Corp., Kalashnikov, NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Admiralty Shipyards, Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, Aviation Corporation Sukhoi, among others. CAATSA sanctions have been imposed against China (in August 2018) and Turkey (in December 2020). Turkey has also been removed from the F-35 programme in June 2019, for its S-400 deal, which was announced in December 2017. Apart from Turkey, countries like Indonesia and Morocco, have also backed out of deals/negotiations to buy Russian defence equipment, like Su-35 fighter jets and the S-400. India ordered five units of the S-400 in October 2018, one unit of which has been deployed in December 2021 and deliveries of the second unit began in April 2022. Media reports have cited the possibility of sanctions waiver – allowed as per the legislation, and also the possibility of such legislations like the CRUCIAL Act – introduced by Republican Senators last year, which allows for non-imposition of sanctions for a ten-year period, if the President certifies to the Congress that India is continuing to play a critical role on security matters in the Indo-Pacific, as part of the Quad. The presentation closed by noting that under the shadow of sanctions, US-Russia bilateral trade has continued to be significant, amounting to nearly $37 billion in 2021, with nearly half of it due to US imports of Russian mineral fuels. US exports of Advanced Technology Products (ATP) to Russia, though, have reduced by nearly two-thirds in 2021, from 2014 levels. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy complimented the speaker for the presentation and pointed out that we have to navigate the evolving situation with extreme caution in the near-to-mid-term, minimising the negative implications flowing out of the punitive measures that the speaker highlighted. Discussion centered on the possibility of escrow accounts, delayed payments, rupee-rouble trade mechanisms, amongst others. Questions also related to long-term implications on the Russian defence industrial base, the nature of the Russian military effort in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the need to further study individual country perspectives and responses and nature of Russian transfer of technology of defence items. The Chair, Col. Manish Rana, closed the session by noting that India will have to further strengthen elements of Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence, to overcome the challenges. This report has been prepared by Mr. Mukesh Kumar, Intern, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Defence Economics & Industry | Defence Industry, Russia |