Events

Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) made a presentation on “Saudi Foreign Policy in the Emerging Regional Order in West Asia,” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 5 August 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA. Scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an important player in the West Asian region. Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has been shaped by a number of factors including its perception of national security, regional stability, geopolitical developments in its neighbourhood and its ambition to play a leadership role in the region. It has established strategic partnerships and alliances with important regional and global powers in order to achieve its foreign policy objectives. As the situation in the West Asian region continues to remain tense, it has adopted a more pragmatic and cautious approach in its foreign policy.

Detailed Report

In her introductory remarks, Dr. Saraswat observed that the Gulf States are emerging as key power brokers in the Arab world. She reflected on Saudi Arabia’s target of achieving Vision 2030 goals and its navigating through the regional order which saw changes from a ‘militaristic turn’ of intervention against the Houthis in Yemen, and involvement in Syria to a preference for de-escalation with key players including Turkey and Iran, and normalisation efforts with Israel, which have been complicated by the ongoing Israel-Palestine war. Further, Dr. Saraswat also commented on the dynamics of Saudi Arabia’s interactions with external powers and increasing engagement of the Gulf States with China.

In his presentation, Dr. Pradhan highlighted that the regional order in West Asia continues to remain fragile. The region suffered significantly during the Arab unrest with protests and regime changes. The region has always remained prone to external intervention. But recently, the Abraham Accords and Saudi-Iran rapprochement have been positive developments with potential for further cooperation. The Israel-Hamas War and the involvement of Houthis and Hezbollah have further complicated the regional situation. The whole region has become even more volatile since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War and its spillover effect in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, involvement of Iran, Lebanon and the neighbourhood along with significant involvement of Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah.

Dr. Pradhan noted that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two regional powers has been a pivotal determinant in the regional order in West Asia. After decades of hostility, both the countries signed an agreement in March 2023 that restored their diplomatic ties. However, both states have serious differences when it comes to regional security in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia vouches for a Western security architecture in the Gulf. On the contrary, Iran believes that the regional security framework of the region should be controlled by the regional players only and perceives the American military presence in the West Asian region as a threat. He also stated that Turkiye and Israel, the two other major non-Arab players in the region also have a major influence in the region.

Dr. Pradhan outlined that when it came to the Israel-Palestine issue, Riyadh’s position has undergone a significant change over the decades. The Saudi-Israeli talks to explore the normalisation of relations between them is an indication of Saudi Arabia’s changing perception towards Israel. However, since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War, Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel until an independent Palestinian state is established. Saudi Arabia supports the Arab Peace Initiative which proposes a two-state solution with the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.

Yemen has always been a major concern for Saudi Arabia since it has a long and porous border and the former has also mostly been a very unstable state with presence of terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. The Houthi capture of Sana’a was a red line for the Kingdom since Riyadh believes that the group is backed by Iran. Thus, Houthis presence on the Saudi-Yemeni border is an obvious national security threat for the Saudis. Houthis have launched several attacks on Saudi Arabia including sensitive infrastructure such as airports and oil installations.

Dr. Pradhan noted that Saudi Arabia’s position towards Bashar Al- Assad in Syria has also undergone a change. There has been a gradual course correction in recent years with the intent of engaging with the Assad regime and bringing Syria back to the Arab world.

Saudi Arabia has adopted mediation as a foreign policy tool. The Kingdom has mediated between different factions in Palestine, Yemen, Lebanon, Sudan and for prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine.

There has been a significant change in Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy thinking since Mohammed bin Salman became the Crown Prince. The Kingdom has been making efforts to improve its global image by undertaking a number of social reforms including improvement in the human rights situation.

Dr. Pradhan argued that when it comes to Saudi-US relations, there have been many ups and downs. Bilateral ties have been interdependent and strategic in nature, with defence and security being given a significant focus. But Biden Administration’s stopping of arms supply to Riyadh at a time when the Kingdom was fighting a war against the Houthis became a major irritant for Saudi Arabia. He outlined that when the oil prices were crashing, in the middle of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries were severely hit by the loss of revenues. The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries came together to form the OPEC+. As a major non-OPEC oil producer, Russia also played a big role in the oil market and forged close cooperation with Saudi Arabia.  This energy cooperation between the Russia and Saudi Arabia was perceived as having the potential to change the global oil market and growing Saudi-Russia cooperation. Saudi Arabia maintains a neutral position in the Russia-Ukraine War.

Dr. Pradhan stated that Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China is also growing significantly. Saudi-China ties are mainly propelled by bilateral trade and energy as China is a key importer of Saudi crude. There is a mutual convergence of interests between the two countries, as Saudi Arabia has expressed its support for the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China has expressed its support for Saudi Vision 2023.

With reference to India-Saudi Arabia bilateral relations, Dr. Pradhan stated that both countries are strategic partners and are moving beyond the traditional buyer-seller relationship. Total bilateral trade between the two stands at approximately US$ 45 billion and Saudi Arabia is also a source of energy for India. West Asia is India’s ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ and Saudi Arabia is an important country in India’s ‘Think West’ policy. Both the countries have a convergence of interests in fighting terrorism, extremism and piracy. The signing of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) has the potential to further enhance connectivity between the two countries.

Dr. Pradhan concluded by stating that the regional order in West Asia continues to remain fragile and tense; and thus Saudi Arabia has recalibrated its approach accordingly. It is gradually adopting a more accommodative and pragmatic foreign policy approach in recent years than ever in the past.

Questions and Comments

Scholars at MP-IDSA engaged in a question and answer session that focused on US-Saudi relations, Russia’s support to the Houthis, China-Saudi Arabia collaboration to produce military drones, prospects of the IMEC project, potential of India-Saudi defence cooperation and the Saudi policy towards the Syrian Crisis. Dr. Pradhan provided insightful responses to the questions and comments from the floor.

Report was prepared by Ms. Sandra Sajeev D Costa, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Mr. Shantanu Sinha, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on, “The Revision of Criminal Laws: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 29 July 2024. The session was moderated by Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

India has undergone a substantial legal transformation with the enactment of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam (BSA), replacing the IPC, CrPC, and Indian Evidence Act, respectively. These changes aim to modernise and streamline India's criminal justice system. The discussion centred around the potential impact of these laws on various aspects of criminal procedure, investigation, and evidence.

Detailed Report

Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, commenced the meeting by providing an overview of the criminal justice administration system and the replacement of the  colonial era laws formulated in the 19th and the 20th centuries by the introduction of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023, which replaced the Indian Penal Code, 1860, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023,which replaced The Criminal Procedure Code, 1882, 1898 and 1973, and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, which replaced the  the Indian Evidence Act, 1872, further discussing whether the current system from the infrastructure point of view and the mindset point of view  is adequately equipped according to the new laws for criminal justice administration or not. Mr. Khare also mentioned briefly the changes made to the registration of FIRs with the introduction of e-FIRs and Zero-FIRs.

Mr. Shantanu Sinha, in his opening remarks, provided an overview of the new laws that were introduced in India making a major shift from the colonial era. These codes aim to address the shortcomings of the previous laws and adapt to the evolving challenges of the 21st century. The meeting commenced with a discussion on the date of implementation of the new laws i.e. 01.07.2024 to oversee their application and address potential challenges. The Committee for Reforms in Criminal Laws (CRCL), established in 2020 and chaired by Prof (Dr.) Ranbir Singh, reviewed criminal laws in India and their recommendations formed the basis for three new bills introduced in the Indian Parliament in August 2023. The Parliamentary Standing Committee chaired by Mr. Brij Lal reviewed the new bills and suggested revisions and recommendations. However, some committee members criticised the committee for only holding 12 sittings to deliberate on the laws and demanded more time for scrutiny.

Before moving to specifics, Mr. Sinha emphasised the focus on ensuring justice to the victim, which is the key feature of the changes made. This is apparent, firstly, in the names themselves—the words “nyaya” (justice) and “nagarik suraksha” (safety and security of the citizen) make this clear and send an unambiguous message. At the same time, the rights of the accused to a fair trial are upheld firmly. The need to punish the actual perpetrators of the crime, by ensuring an honest, fair, scientific investigation; and speedy and efficient justice—so that justice is delivered in a timely manner with adequate deterrent effect for both the offender and others who may take to crime— are both met in these laws. There are also several women-centric changes in these laws; and others that protect the rights of children. For example, the definition of ‘victim’ has been widened by eliminating the need for the accused person to be formally charged of having committed the offence. Though this is not a gender-specific change, it will help all victims (including where they are entitled to compensation) including those who are women. In the IPC, sections relating to offences against woman and child were scattered throughout the text. In the BNS, they have been consolidated in Chapter 5 (Of offences against woman and child). This chapter has also been given precedence as far as the sequence in which chapters are arranged in the Act is concerned (this gives a message, but has no other legal implication, of course). These are only illustrative. The point is that several changes have been made to ensure justice to women, and also to children regardless of their gender, recognising the fact that both boys and girls are vulnerable.

According to Mr. Sinha, the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023 (BNS) retains most offences from the IPC.  It adds community service as a form of punishment. Sedition is no longer an offence.  Instead, there is a new offence for acts endangering the sovereignty, unity and integrity of India. The BNS includes the offence of terrorism in one its sections, whose definition is the same as that provided in the UAPA. Naturally, therefore, a question would arise which law to apply when investigating such an offence. This discretion has been left to the concerned Superintendent of Police. Over time, this aspect will have to be elaborated upon and perhaps guidelines framed to ensure that there is no scope of it being challenged on the grounds of arbitrary exercise of discretion.

Mr. Sinha explained that organised crime has been added as an offence in the BNS. The definition is in line with that provided in the Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act (MCOCA), which was the model used by other states as well while drafting their own laws to deal with this menace.  It includes crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and cyber-crime committed on behalf of a crime syndicate.  Petty organised crime is also an offence now. By adding this section to the BNS, there is now a law applicable across the country to deal with organised and petty organised crime—which don’t honour state boundaries and are inter-state as well as transnational— which will go a long way in tackling such criminal activity in an effective manner.

Mr. Sinha mentioned murder by a group of five or more persons on grounds of certain identity markers such as caste, language or personal belief will be an offence with penalty of seven years to life imprisonment or death. By providing a separate section for this offence, a strong message has been sent that such offences will be met with strict punitive measures.

Mr. Sinha further elucidated that the new legal framework also introduces more precise definitions for certain crimes. For instance, the distinction between snatching and robbery has been clarified, addressing a long-standing issue where cases of snatching were often lodged under the more serious charge of robbery. This refinement in categorising crimes is expected to lead to more accurate data collection and potentially, more effective targeted interventions. Additionally, the laws incorporate provisions for emerging crimes like cyberbullying and online fraud, reflecting the evolving nature of criminal activities in the digital age.

Mr. Sinha stated that the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023 (BNSS) which was introduced in the Lok Sabha and referred to the standing committee on August 11, 2023 replaces the Criminal Procedure Code, 1973 (CrPC).  The CrPC provides for the procedure for arrest, prosecution, and bail. BNSS mandates forensic investigation for offences punishable with seven years of imprisonment or more.  Forensic experts will visit crime scenes to collect forensic evidence and record the process. By making this process mandatory, and providing for expert collection of evidence, the process of investigation may well be revolutionised. The quality of evidence, and its relevance and value in court, will be significantly enhanced; by ensuring that evidence is of high quality, on the one hand, it will ensure that actual perpetrators of crime will not be able to get away because of deficiencies in collection of vital evidence. On the other hand, by assuring the element of fairness in investigation, it also helps the accused to establish their innocence, if, indeed, they are innocent, which is, of course, as a general rule, the presumption unless contradicted by due process of law.

He further emphasised that all trials, inquiries, and proceedings may be held in electronic mode.  Production of electronic communication devices, likely to contain digital evidence, will be allowed for investigation, inquiry, or trial. If a proclaimed offender has absconded to evade trial and there is no immediate prospect of arresting him, the trial can be conducted and judgment pronounced in his absence. Along with specimen signatures or handwriting, finger impressions and voice samples may be collected for investigation or proceedings.  Samples may be taken from a person who has not been arrested. All these measures and more make the process of investigation and trial that much more efficient. There are some concerns, as well. There are questions of data security, and other such concerns relating to electronic devices and communication. Further, the demeanour of a witness in judicial proceedings is an important aspect of his/her testimony. At times, especially during cross-examination, it is important to assure the Court that the witness is deposing without any fear, and not under any compulsion. Physical presence of witnesses in Court aids this process. When deposing using electronic means, this may not always be the case. Also, for example when recording searches and seizures through audio-visual means, the mere fact that electronic recording has been done should not lend the evidence any more of an imprint of credibility that that desired by law. Investigating officers have to be trained, retrained, and then again trained, to follow the best guidelines, and ensure justice to the victim as well as the accused.

Mr. Sinha said that the BNSS allows up to 15 days of police custody, which can be authorised in parts during the initial 40 or 60 days of the 60 or 90 days, respectively, in which investigations are carried out (depending on the punishment attracted by the offence; basically, the gravity of the offence).  Concerns have been raised that this may lead to denial of bail for the entire period of 40 or 60 days (as the case may be) as magistrates may be reluctant to grant bail on the ground that the accused may be required to be remanded to police custody to help in the investigation, provided the police has not exhausted the 15 days custody. However, it has been clarified that merely on this ground bail will not be denied.

Mr. Sinha critically assessed the new system's preparedness to effectively serve India's needs, exploring the ramifications of e-registration of FIRs, the concept of zero FIRs.  The introduction of e-FIRs and zero FIRs is a step towards improving accessibility to justice. The law encourages the use of electronic means for filing and processing FIRs, which within three days of the filing needs to be signed by the informant, which can expedite the process and reduce paperwork.

However, the effectiveness of these measures hinges on robust implementation and adequate infrastructure.

With reference to the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023 (BSB2) Mr. Sinha explained that this replaces the Indian Evidence Act, 1872 (IEA).  It retains most provisions of the IEA including those on confessions, relevancy of facts, and burden of proof. The IEA provides for two kinds of evidence - documentary and oral.  Documentary evidence includes primary (original documents) and secondary (that proves the contents of the original).  The BSA retains the distinction.  It classifies electronic records as documents. Under the IEA, electronic records are categorised as secondary evidence.  The BSA classifies electronic records as primary evidence.  It expands such records to include information stored in semiconductor memory or any communication devices (smartphones, laptops). The BSA expands secondary evidence to include: (i) oral and written admissions, and (ii) the testimony of a person who has examined the document and is skilled in the examination of documents.

While interacting with MP-IDSA-Scholars regarding instances where citizens have faced difficulties in registering FIRs, particularly in snatching cases, Mr.Sinha emphasised the importance of persistence in such situations. He stated that if a police officer refuses to register an FIR where it relates to a cognisable offence, citizens should utilise remedies that the law provides. The first step would be to write to the Superintendent of Police, and, if there is still no action, then they should make a complaint before the jurisdictional judicial magistrate.  With changes in BNSS, such problems have found an effective redressal as citizens can file e-FIRs (to be signed within 3 days), and can file zero FIRs too (i.e. information regarding a cognisable offence can be given in any police station irrespective of  whether the offence took place in its jurisdiction.) Mr.Sinha emphasised that under no circumstances should citizens give up on their right to lodge a complaint.

Mr. Sinha mentioned that significant amendments to provisions governing complaints against public servants and the role of forensic experts have been made. The controversial expansion of police custody from the previous 15-day limit to 60 and even 90 days, while aimed at complex investigations, it is essential to establish stringent safeguards to prevent misuse. Regular judicial oversight and strict adherence to legal provisions are imperative. The newly mandated 90-day update on investigation status for victims or informants was analysed in depth for its potential to enhance transparency and accountability.

Specific provisions such as those related to complaint registration, preliminary inquiries, and the alignment of terrorism-related definitions with the UAPA were scrutinised. Provisions safeguarding the rights of children and women were meticulously examined to assess their congruence with principles of justice and gender equality.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA complimented Mr. Shantanu Sinha and appreciated the detailed presentation and further highlighted the absence of provisions related to road rage and the criminalisation of mere bystanding during a crime as significant lacunae in the newly enacted criminal laws. He emphasised the need for specific laws addressing the growing menace of road rage, which has claimed numerous lives. Additionally, he advocated for a remedy for the individuals who witness a crime but choose to remain passive, underscoring the importance of active citizenship and community responsibility in preventing criminal activities.

Participants expressed profound concerns regarding the challenges inherent in implementing these sweeping legal reforms and anticipated legal challenges that may arise.

Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA inquired about the burden of proof, whether it lies upon the prosecution or the defence, a fundamental aspect of the criminal jurisprudence. He further asked the scope of malicious investigations and their impact on society quoting the Nambi Narayan case.

Col. Vivek Chadha(Retd), Senior Fellow made a query regarding the process followed for the formation of these laws and the role played by the citizens in formulating them.

Col. (Dr.)  Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow asked Mr.Sinha whether the notion of the hefty process of filing an FIR with the police has been simplified with the introduction of the new criminal laws.

Report has been prepared by Ms. Navdeep Kaur, Intern, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis made a presentation on “Japan’s Currency Crisis and its Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 15 July 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. R. K. Dhawan, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA. Scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

Japan made a significant transition from exerting hard power to prioritising soft power.  The Japanese model was a mix of free market and socialist system. Later on, several Southeast Asian countries also adopted a similar approach to achieve their development goals. Countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also adopted this economic model, and China and Vietnam have followed the same. This Japanese economic model was referred to as the ‘flying geese’ model. In the early 1990s, the collapse of massive assets led to a crisis in the Japanese currency. Several factors contributed to the devaluation of the Yen, including the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as the huge selling of the yen, resulting in a decline in its value.

Detailed Report

The session started with remarks by Dr. R.K. Dhawan on how the value of the Yen degraded over a period of time. He talked about the Plaza Accord according to which Japan was pressurised to appreciate the Yen and that led to the downfall of the Japanese economy and what we call lost decades. Japan has not been yet able to recover from it.

Dr. Dasgupta commenced his presentation with an introduction to the rise of the Japanese economy after World War II. Japan from the beginning was the preminent economic power in the 1950s and 1960s. The rise was remarkable because it was risen from the ashes of the 1940s and after suffering two nuclear bombs which no country has faced. In his presentation, Dr. Dasgupta explained it all in brief.

In his presentation, he talked about the Japanese economy of the post 1940s and 50s era. After the decade when Japan surrendered, the country put into place a revolutionary system of ‘guided capitalism’, that would give a growth rate averaging around 8 to 10 per cent until the 1970s and 7 per cent until the 1990s which led to international economists coining the “Flying Geese” model for Asia and all over the world.

He emphasised the role of the US in reviving the Japanese economy during the Japanese economy’s lost decades. The accommodative policies of the US not only opened the market for its domestic manufacturers but also pegged the Yen to a fixed value against the dollar. However, the system that guided Japan to success also contained the roots essentially of its downfall because Japan’s antitrust laws encouraged the formation of giants called keiretsu.

He also highlighted the significance of the keiretsu and the impact of the real estate bubble. This economic bubble collapsed between 1991 and 1995, leading to a period of deflation in Japan. Consequently, there was a reduction in the prices of goods and services, accompanied by diminished cash flow and corporate profits. This downturn resulted in decreased production and a decline in employment opportunities, leading to a significant rise in unemployment. Subsequently, consumers began to economise on goods and services, contributing to an overabundance of supply in the market.

Further, he explained the effects of deflation in Japan. The main leading banks of Japan were on the verge of collapse. Many companies were red-listed. The wages of the employees were kept stagnant. People started saving which led to depressed consumption.

He talked about the Rise of Abenomics where he explained changes in the monetary and fiscal policy and some structural changes that were made. He explained the changes in the monetary policy which led to the crisis in the Japanese economy. The first target of Abenomics was setting an inflation target of 2 par cent so that the prices of goods would rise which would stimulate more production. The second was setting Yen volatility control so that the Yen became stable. Then was the negative interest rates under which banks had to pay the entity that was holding their funds. Next was the public investment by which the government would intend to invest capital directly into the economy. Finally, the quantitative easing (QE) by which the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would buy government and non-government bonds in the open market, and in effect, it could use credit liquidity to buy back its own debt. Besides all these, there was a fiscal policy that used consumption tax hikes to fund spending. They brought in structural reforms to strengthen antitrust laws, boost women’s participation, and increase immigration. When Haruhiko Kuroda was appointed as governor of the BoJ, he came up with some changes and initiated Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016, with rates of 0 per cent long-term, -0.1 per cent short and medium-term. Now the Banks had to pay BoJ interest for their deposits. After the implementation of these changes, the Abe government had some success in increasing GDP and inflationary expectations were created.

Further, Dr. Dasgupta explained the failures of Abenomics. Some of them are that the real GDP growth declined, consumption rates remained stagnant, the government deficit grew, and labor force participation lowered as structural reforms were never implemented.

Dr. Dasgupta explained the ramifications of Abenomics for the Japanese economy, highlighting a fluctuating pattern in comparison to the dollar. This was accompanied by a decline in both productivity and consumption, alongside mild inflation resulting from the aggressive quantitative easing (QE) that bolstered the value of the Yen vis-à-vis the USD. However, with the assumption of Kazuo Ueda as the Governor of the BoJ, the QE was terminated. Consequently, Japan found itself designated as a currency manipulator, rendering it susceptible to potential sanctions. Of note, the US initiated non-cooperation with Japan during the US-Japan-South Korea meeting, emphasising the need for close consultation.

He also spoke on the impact on tourism and defense modernisation, stating that Japan has increased its defense modernisation budget, ranking 6th in expenditure.

Questions and Comments

Scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of inquiries. Questions were raised about the internal pressure on Japan to strengthen the Yen, the structural changes in the Japanese economy, the potential impact of advancing Chinese technology, the decline of Japanese technology, and the role of the US in reinvigorating the Japanese economy.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta provided insightful answers to the questions.

Report was prepared by Mr. Rajnish Kumar, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre.

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), organised a lecture by Dr. Samir V. Kamat, Secretary, Department of Defence R&D and Chairman, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), under the Eminent Persons Lecture Series on 3 July 2024. The theme of his talk was “Technology Vision 2047”. The event was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Dr. Samir V. Kamat discussed the transition driven by rapid technological advancements and disruptive technologies that are transforming warfare in the present multipolar world. He highlighted India’s strategic potential to impact the technology landscape and stressed the importance of preparedness for emerging conflicts. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) plays a pivotal role in this, supported by academia and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Dr. Kamat outlined progress in various defence sectors, including missile systems, armoured vehicles, and aeronautics, while acknowledging challenges such as semiconductor production and the need for global supply chain integration. He also emphasised initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make-in-India to boost self-reliance and technological innovation, with a focus on next-generation platforms and advanced technologies. Despite current R&D spending challenges, efforts are underway to increase private sector involvement and foster a risk-taking culture to drive innovation.

Detailed Report

The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy delivered his opening remarks by introducing Dr. Samir V. Kamat.

Dr. Samir V. Kamat started his lecture by highlighting the significant transformation from a unipolar to a multi-polar world order which is accompanied by an accelerating rate of technological change and the emergence of disruptive technologies, which are reshaping the nature of warfare. Dr. Kamat emphasised that India is strategically positioned to influence the evolving technology landscape, necessitating a focused approach to emerging technological domains. The accelerating rate of evolution of disruptive technologies, particularly in cyber and information domain, are reshaping modern combat, underscoring the need for preparedness before the rise of any major conflicts.

The defence research and development (R&D) landscape is primarily driven by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), with significant support from academia and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Dr. Kamat highlighted the role of the DRDO and its responsibility to design and development of defence systems, which are subsequently produced by Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) or private industries through Transfer of Technology (ToT) agreements.

India’s defence sector encompasses a broad spectrum of systems, including ballistic missiles, armoured vehicles, artillery, small arms, and advancements in aerospace and aeronautics. Significant progress has been made in various technological domains within the defence sector. In missile systems, the development of surface-to-air and cruise missiles, including the Smart Anti-Airfield Weapon (SAAW), alongside advanced anti-tank missile systems and multi-barrel rocket systems, highlight the strides in enhancing defence capabilities. For armoured vehicles and land systems, innovations include the creation of lightweight single-span mountain footbridges (MFB) and 46-meter MLC-70 modular bridges, as well as lightweight advanced infantry floating footbridges and various military bridging systems and land-based platforms

In aeronautics, the development of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk-IA has been a key focus, along with DRDO Netra Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AEW&CS).  However, challenges remain, particularly in semiconductor device production and the need for investment in critical material processing facilities. Additionally, Dr. Kamat stressed that integrating into the global supply chain is crucial for economic viability and reducing reliance on imports. The infantry weapons segment has seen the development of the JVPC 9mm machine pistol, multi-mode hand grenades, and 40mm Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL) grenades. Additionally, indigenous replacement programs for existing munitions, including anti-tank and artillery ammunition, are being pursued to enhance self-reliance in defence supplies.

In alignment with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of Viksit Bharat 2047 and a leader in defence technology, initiatives such as ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’and ‘Make in India’ are being vigorously pursued. These include enhancing technological capabilities through initiatives like the Defence Production Partner concept and fostering collaboration with industries for design, development, and production. Streamlining technology transfers and modifying policies to alleviate royalty burdens are part of this vision. Efforts to increase capacity through partnerships with educational institutions and promote innovation via contests and funding are underway, with a focus on developing complex systems and disruptive technologies.

Dr. Kamat emphasised prioritising next-generation platforms like advanced combat aircraft, high-endurance autonomous underwater vehicles, and future-ready combat vehicles, along with next-gen weapons and sensors such as long-range precision strike capabilities, laser and microwave weapons, and advanced propulsion technologies. Balancing speed and accuracy in new technologies and emphasising space and satellite technologies for defence are key future challenges and opportunities. Overall, the lecture outlined India’s strategic direction in defence technology, highlighting achievements, challenges, and plans for innovation, collaboration, and capacity building.

Dr. Kamat mentioned that significant progress has been made in various technological domains, including the development of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) and electric propulsion system for ships. Efforts are also focused on enhancing underwater domain awareness and networked systems to bolster maritime security. In addition, there is a concerted push towards improving space situational awareness and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), with particular emphasis on space-based ISR capabilities. Cyber capabilities and secure communication technologies, such as quantum communication, are also being prioritised.

Key areas of focus in research and development include Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), quantum technologies encompassing communication, sensing, and computing, as well as cognitive and anti-stealth technologies. Efforts are also being directed towards hypersonic missile defence and directed energy weapons, alongside advancements in materials and manufacturing processes, including post-quantum cryptography. He further stated that initiatives have been undertaken to establish laboratories for young scientists to foster innovation within a start-up culture. This includes collaboration with academia and industry to develop cutting-edge technologies. Additionally, the establishment of industry-academia centres of excellence aim to advance domain-specific technologies. Projects within these centres are reaching maturity and transitioning to the industry, positioning them for market readiness. A notable achievement has been the significant reduction in the weight of bulletproof jackets while maintaining their protective capabilities. In addition of this, new facilities are being developed for testing hypersonic vehicles, drones, and other advanced systems, ensuring comprehensive evaluation and refinement of these technologies.

Despite challenges such as low research and development (R&D) spending (currently at 0.65 percent of GDP) compared to other countries, strategies are being implemented to increase private sector involvement in R&D. There is also a push to cultivate a risk-taking mindset to drive innovation and establish leadership in technology. However, for the private sector to effectively engage in risk-taking, improved government policies are necessary and at present, there is a strong emphasis on shifting mindsets to embrace and learn from failures. While challenges exist, there is an optimistic outlook towards achieving the set goals through the right strategies and support mechanisms.

Questions and Comments

The main questions posed addressed various aspects of advancing India’s defence sector. Key areas included enhancing education in defence laboratories for better implementation of advanced techniques and identifying primary focus areas for disruption in defence technology, including understanding adversaries’ capabilities. Strategies for becoming a leading defence exporter, like emulating successful countries, were discussed, along with measures to boost private sector participation and fostering investment. Emphasis was placed on offering high-quality or cost-effective solutions, driving innovation, and necessary mindset changes to lead in defence technology. Strategic planning to meet demands, build global competitiveness, and improve collaborations was deemed essential. Also that, leveraging India’s economic status for global defence positioning and focusing on potential disruptions in defence technologies are crucial. Further, enhancing geopolitical influence to boost exports, addressing current production gaps, and improving private sector participation were emphasised.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Samir V. Kamat spoke on issues surrounding hypersonic technology and its distinct challenges. While hypersonic glide vehicles are relatively easier to intercept due to their predictable trajectory, hypersonic cruise missiles, capable of manoeuvrability, pose a greater threat. In the realm of manufacturing, 3D printing is advancing rapidly, with a focus on metal powders, though limitations in component size persist. He also stated that biotechnology, primarily applied to biodefence, has limited relevance in this context. Engine technology has seen improvements with single crystal turbine blades, but integration challenges remain. According to Dr. Kamat, material science necessitates advanced materials for enhanced performance, requiring collaborative efforts.

Dr. Kamat emphasised that government support is essential for managing the inherent risks of emerging technologies and fostering innovation within the expanding startup ecosystem. The discussion highlighted the need to advance domestic defence capabilities and emphasised the need to develop advanced platforms, encourage innovation, and increase private sector participation in defence research and development despite current challenges.

The report has been prepared by Dr. Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, Research Analyst, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA.