EVENTS

Events

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8th South Asia Conference: The Role of Media in Promoting Regional Understanding in South Asia

October 28, 2014 to October 29, 2015

Conference

Concept Note

Media plays a very important role in generating public awareness and shaping public opinion. It is regarded as the fourth estate and an important pillar of democracy. With the mushrooming of media around the world– print, audio-visual and social– its role has become even more significant. The manner in which reports are filed and news is disseminated have their impact on public opinion. In an interconnected world, the role of media in influencing foreign policy of states can hardly be ignored.

In South Asia, a region where inter-state relations are held hostage to zero-sum politics, media has a big responsibility in creating an environment of trust and understanding Since the states of the region are socially, historically, culturally and economically interconnected, the role of media assumes even more significance. However, unfortunately, the media in different states of South Asia are yet to show necessary maturity and wisdom in enabling an environment of mutual trust and confidence. The discourses in media are often mired in narrowly conceived nationalist templates which far from bridging differences escalate them causing irreparable harm to regional understanding. While tension and conflict among states and communities find more news space, shared history and culture are conveniently ignored. All this results in media adding to interstate conflicts and increasing the political temperature rather than acting as an agent of change and reconciliation. With the proliferation of audio-visual media in the region and the competition among channels for better TRP ratings, there is often a temptation to sensationalise issues through select reporting.

This is not to say that there is a complete absence of responsible media in the region. Joint media initiatives like the one between the Jang group of Pakistan and the Times group in India to launch Aman ki Asha (Hope for Peace) did try to create an environment of trust to contribute to India-Pakistan peace process. Similarly, the Statesman from India and Prathom Alo from Bangladesh also tried to replicate this exerciseto promote India-Bangladesh relationship. Groups like South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA) have also tried to bring together scholars, retired bureaucrats, politicians and media person together in South Asia to promote people to people contact.

Media cannot be looked at as a monolithic entity. There are several layers to it. Moreover, the media is facing several restrictions. There is the issue of media censorship and media freedom. There is also the issue of media ownership— by political parties, interest groups and business houses. With their vested interests the owners sometimes dictate the line a media group would take at the expense of neutrality. The influence of certain institutions on media begs close scrutiny in view of their impact on foreign and security policies of some states. The differences in approach between vernacular and English media and their influence on society and politics is also another area which has not received much critical attention. The social media is assuming importance in most of these countries with the penetration of internet and wider use of mobile phones especially among the youth who constitute a critical mass in South Asia.

Whether it was the case of showing doctored images about fictitious attack on Rohingyas as attack on Muslims in North East; the picture of Shivaji and Ambedkar, which led to violence in Pune in India; or the derogatory message against the Prophet, maliciously circulated in the social media attributing the act to a Buddhist, which led to violence in Ramu in Bangladesh — the social media is playing a disproportionate role in spawning insecurity and violence in the multicultural setting in South Asia.

Given the increasingly significant role played by the media, the 8th South Asian Dialogue being organized by the IDSA seeks to explore the following.

What role media is playing in shaping public opinion in different countries?
How does media influence foreign and security policies of states? Is there any difference between the vernacular and English language media in this regard?
What are the forces influencing media and its approach to regional issues?
How does media ownership impact reporting by different media houses?
Does media play a role in promoting jingoistic nationalism in the region? How does it interfere with the process of regional unity and integration?
Can media play a role in promoting regional understanding and contribute to regional peace and amity?

Programme Schedule

DAY ONE: October 28, 2014

0930-1000 hours: Registration

1000-1030 hours: Inaugural Session

Welcome Address by Brigadier Rumel Dahiya (Retd.), DDG, IDSA [Read the address]

Keynote address by Shri Prakash Javadekar, Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting (Independent Charge) MOS(IC) for Environment, Forest and Climate Change and MOS for Parliamentary Affairs [Watch Video]

Vote of Thanks

1030-1100 hrs Tea /Coffee

1100–1300 hrs - Session I: The Role of Media in Shaping Public Discourse in South Asia

Moderator: Professor S D Muni

Speakers:

Ashok K. Behuria & Smruti Pattanaik - Media in South Asia: A Panoramic View
Rasul Bakhsh Rais - The Media and Foreign Policy Discourses in Pakistan
Syed Badrul Ahsan - Impact of Media Ownership on Reporting
Amrullah Saleh - Media in Post 9/11 Afghanistan
Siddharth Varadarajan - Can Media Play a Role in Promoting Regional Understanding
Kunda Dixit - Media in the Age of Intolerance and Terrorism

1300 - 1400 hrs Lunch

1400-1530 hours - Session II: State of Media in South Asia: Country Perspectives

Moderator: Mr Prem Shankar Jha

Speakers:

Saleem K. Safi- State of Pakistani Media: Does it Play its Due Role?
Dilrukshi Handunetti- Promotion of Jingoism in the Region by the Media: The Case of Sri Lanka
Ibrahim Waheed- Maldivian Media: Ownership and Orientation
Kaberi Gayen - Does Media Ownership Really Matter?
Tenzing Lamsang- The Role of the Bhutanese Media in Bhutan’s Democratic Evolution and Governance.

1530-1545 hours Tea/Coffee

1545-1730 hrs - Session III State of Media in South Asia: Country Perspectives (contd.)

Moderator: Mr Vinod Sharma

Speakers:

Myo Lwin - The State of Media in Myanmar
Danish Kharokhel - Role of Afghan Media in Promoting Regional Understanding
Ahmed Zahir Mohamed- The State of Media: A Maldivian Perspective
Shruti Pandalai - Truth vs Hype: Media, Hyper-nationalism and Impact on Perceptions in India-South Asia Relations

DAY TWO: October 29, 2014

1000-1130 hrs - Session IV: Influence of Media on Foreign and Security Policies of States

Moderator: Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar (Retd.)

Speakers:

Lakshman F.B. Gunasekara- News Media Re-Presentation and Agenda-Setting in Public Discourse on Foreign Relations: The Case of Sri Lankan Popular Attitudes Towards India
Khin Maung Soe- The Role of Media in Shaping Foreign Policy Discourse in Myanmar
Dawa Penjor- The Role of Bhutanese Media in Amalgamating South Asia: Media’s Quest For a Happy South Asia Society
Deepak Adhikari- The Role of Media in Shaping Foreign Policy Discourse in Nepal

1145-1330 hrs - Session V: Can Media Play a Role in Promoting Regional Understanding? (Panel Discussion)

Moderator: Dr Chandan Mitra, Hon’ble Member of Parliament

Panelists:

S D Muni
Siddhartha Varadarajan
Nitin Gokhale
Saleem K. Safi
Dilrukshi Handunetti
Amrullah Saleh
Suhasini Haider
Syed Badrul Ahsan
Ibrahim Waheed
Kunda Dixit
Myo Lwin
Dawa Penjor

1330–1335 hrs Vote of Thanks

1335 – 1430 hrs Lunch

Conference Booklet

Rapporteurs Report

South Asia

South Asia Conference

17th Asian Security Conference: Asian Security: Comprehending the Indian Approach

February 11, 2015 to February 13, 2015

Conference

Concept Note

The shift of power to Asia in the 21st century with its imminent economic rise has amplified the security challenges that the continent faces within the larger rubric of international relations. Key concerns include major power rivalries, tensions over disputed territories, freedom of Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs), security dilemmas connected to military modernization, the robustness of regional institutional mechanisms, intra-state conflicts and last but not the least, the perspectives of major actors like Russia, China and India on Asian regional order: whether they view it as purely competitive or cooperative-competitive. Historically, Asia has been an important geographical cusp in the pathway of civilizations. Arabia, the Ottoman Empire, the Mongols, the Chinese empires, India, Ceylon, etc, have played major roles in the fight for territory, resources and the spread of ideas and religion. Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam, Confucianism, Zoroastrianism, etc., have been major religious influences, while mathematics, science, astronomy, the printing press, gun powder, the wheel, etc., draws their origin to Asia. Asian cultures and civilizations have been instrumental in the conceptualization and operationalization of the strategic cultures and military modernizations of other civilizations. The extreme forms of competition that precluded the colonial period, and the meeting of Asia and the West led loose new forces of military modernizations, especially naval technologies with faster ships, and the idea of sea dominance. The colonial period was critical for the formation of an Asian idea of difference as most of the countries were either colonized or suffered from deep seated anxieties due to their contact with the West, memories that continue to shape ideas and foreign policies to this day.

India emerged from colonialism with a solid sense of national identity. The leaders of the Indian freedom movement expressed attractive visions of the kind of state India should become. Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi was a firm believer in the universal principle of global interconnectedness, and saw India as deeply rooted in this sense of universalism, both ideationally and physically. Jawaharlal Nehru, while supportive of Gandhian universalism, chose to carve a path of non-alignment, as a direct response to the systemic distribution of power at that time, the US and the USSR, though ideationally, he was drawn to Soviet socialism rather than American capitalism. Nehru aspired to carve a unique foreign policy for India, where as a proponent of non-alignment, India would establish its own foreign policy priorities and agendas, devoid of super-power structural rivalry. Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, India’s first Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, firmly advocated a strong Indian state duly based on defence of its own borders with a keen strategic sense of its neighbours, especially China.

India’s approach to foreign policy and international relations has, over the years, been propelled by ideas drawn from the leaders of the Indian freedom movement, their aspirations for India, as well as its own experiences and engagements with the world since its independence. While many strategic analysts, both in India and abroad, accuse India of lacking a strategic culture or strategic thinking, a deep foray into Indian foreign policy behavior reveals that India does have a strategic culture where it closely monitors the external environment and debates on the efficacy of the use of military power in addressing external threats. Over the years, some of the major developments in India’s economic and foreign policy have been the 1991 economic reforms that opened up the Indian economy to globalization, the 1998 nuclear tests, its space program, and its growing role in Asian multilateralism. Areas that have emerged as of priority to India are its strategic partnerships with major powers, cyber, space and energy security, terrorism, nuclear safety and security, the Indian Ocean region, the US ‘pivot’ and the rise of China. In this backdrop, it is critical to discuss and assess whether India has reached a stage of power acquisition that equips it with system ‘shaping capabilities and intentions’. This discussion should emerge from the fact that India has showed the potential to shape and mould the international system, and it aspires to a larger system shaping role in the future.

Based on this conceptual prop, the 17th Asian Security Conference will focus on the theme, “Asian Security: Comprehending the Indian Approach”. Given the overall focus on Asia with its increased prosperity, and the rise of major Asian powers in the context of decreasing resources, naval competition, American presence, and quest for prestige, the conference will deliberate on India’s strategic role and preferences in shaping Asian Security. The conference will focus not only on what India’s approach has been but also what should be India’s future proactive approach towards shaping Asian security.

The key thematic questions that will weave together the multiple interactive sessions of the conference are:-

What role can India play in shaping the structural and normative parameters for Asian security?
What are India’s strategic preferences and choices for Asia’s security future?
How do the major powers of Asia and the United States view India’s role towards cementing Asian security?
Has India transcended its regional role as a South Asian power to the broader regional context of Asia?
What are the key scenarios that emerge from the 17th Asian security conference that India will have to respond to in the next 10 to 15 years?

The conference will be divided into nine interactive sessions

Thematic Sessions

Session I: Asian Regional Order

Session II: India and Strategic Partnerships: Impact on Asian Security

Session III: Asian Economies and Resource Competition

Session IV: The Rise of China

Session V: Maritime Security in Asia

Session VI: Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, Cyber and Space Security in Asia

Session VII: Major Strategic Regions of Asia

Session VIII: Future trends and Scenarios emerging from the 17th Asian Security Conference

Concluding Valedictory Session

Theme Elaboration

Session I: Asian Regional Order

This session will critically analyze whether India possesses a systemic set of ideas, both practical and theoretical, that articulate its national interests. Most importantly, this session will identify the strategic vision/visions that India aspires to in projecting itself onto the Asian stage. This will involve factors like national identity, power, sovereignty, norm building, and multilateralism. Based on this, the session will discuss India’s approach to Asian regional order, whether India is an observer of that order or aspires to be a key actor in the management of the regional order. The session will deliberate on whether it is possible for India and other major powers of Asia to create a collective security framework which would assume responsibility for Asian security.

Key Questions to be addressed in this session are:-

What are the major Indian strategic approaches to Asian regional order?
Does India have the ambition and/or capacity to shape Asian regional order?
What role has India played in building norms that could mitigate some of the security challenges that Asia faces?

Session II: India and Strategic Partnerships: Impact on Asian Security

One of the major foreign policy mechanisms that India has adopted over the years is to cement strategic partnerships with major countries to work towards international security. Countries with whom India has strategic partnerships include US, China, Russia, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, South Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, ASEAN, to name but a few. According to a report by the Foundation for National Security Research, New Delhi, India has a priority listing in strategic partnerships, scored in 90 points, with Russia coming on top, followed by US, France, UK, Germany and Japan.1 The key questions that these strategic partnerships raise are the following:-

How does India define strategic partnerships?
What are the key issues that India’s strategic partnerships deal with?
Is there a priority listing with regard to countries and issues that informs India’s strategic partnerships?
What impact do India’s strategic partnerships have on Asian security?

Session III: Asian Economies and Resource Competition

Asia has emerged as one of the most economically vibrant regions on the global economic stage. The economic rise of China, Japan, India, ASEAN, etc, is driving global economic growth. China, India and Japan are the world’s second, third and fourth largest economies predicted to grow further by 2050. The G-20 has emerged as one of the largest economic blocs with a capacity to fund economic development across the world. With the economic rise of Asian countries, there are simultaneous challenges. The momentum for Asian economic integration is rather slow with challenges remaining for the emergence of common visa regime, currency and trade policies. Security challenges like transnational crime (drugs and small arms), terrorism, resource competition, tensions in the high seas and territorial disputes could dampen robust economic cooperation. The key questions that emerge for India in this context are the following:-

What role can Indian play to strengthen Asian economic integration?
What are the key security challenges faced by India in its rise to economic prosperity?
Are Asian economic institutions robust enough to sustain the momentum for Asian economic integration?

Session IV: The Rise of China

The rise of China has changed the geopolitics of Asia. It has created both opportunities and challenges. China’s economic growth is driving economic and infrastructural developments in Asia. Simultaneously, its military modernization, growing assertiveness over disputed territories, competition over resources, etc, is posing a security challenge to countries in Asia. On the one hand, India aspires to deeper engagement with China, both politically and economically. On the other hand, China’s assertiveness over its border dispute with India and territorial claim on one of the Indian states in the Northeast is posing a major security challenge. This session will deliberate on these issues and aim to find answers to the following key questions.

What are the major priorities in the China-India strategic partnership?
Can China and India establish a cooperative security mechanism in Asia?
How is China’s assertiveness over its territorial disputes impacting not only China-India relationship but the growing security dilemma in Asia?

Session V: Maritime Security in Asia

When one talks about maritime security in Asia, the Indian Ocean comes to the fore given the rise of the Asian economies, their demand for raw imports, and the export of the finished products. Moreover, given the American military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Indian Ocean has taken centre stage for Western military supplies. Increasing importance of choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz, the Malacca Straits, the Bab-el-Mandep in the Persian Gulf, etc., calls for a larger Indian role as a regional security provider. Maritime security in this regard would mean ensuring freedom of the SLOCs: a global public good, managing naval competition, and fighting piracy near the coast of Somalia.

The key questions that this session will deal with are:-

What are the key parameters of the Indian maritime doctrine vis-à-vis Asian security?
Does India possess the maritime capability to deal with security challenges in the Indian Ocean in order to function as a regional security provider?
Are the oceans and seas of Asia compounded by strategic naval competition between China, India and the US?
Is there a regional architecture in place to deal with naval competition?

Session VI: Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, Cyber and Space Security in Asia

One of the foremost quests by Asian powers is to establish and strengthen Asian security mechanisms in order to deal with nuclear, cyber and space issues. The perils of nuclear terrorism, safety of nuclear weapon sites, cyber-terrorism and cyber-hacking and a militarized space have grave implications for Asia with five nuclear weapons states (China, India, Russia, Pakistan, North Korea) and two with overt/covert nuclear weapons capability (Iran and Israel). This posits the nuclear security threshold and the much repeated stability/instability paradox. China, Japan, Russia and India are key actors in space. Space is and will emerge as one the most vital global commons. With cyber emerging as the critical means of communication, thereby compressing space and time, and with it, creating security challenges like cyber terrorism and hacking, Asia is vulnerable as one of the biggest users of cyber space.

The key questions that this session will deal with are:-

What is the emerging nuclear environment in Asia? Is the Asian nuclear order changing?
What effective role has India played in the nuclear non-proliferation regime?
Does India have a concrete well-crafted cyber policy with regard to Asian security?
What are the points of convergence/divergence in India’s space policy with other Asian countries? Is there a common Asian space code?

Session VII: Major Strategic Regions of Asia

Geo-politics, as ever before, has proved hard to be precisely defined. Yet, as the term has been revisited and refined over the years, geo-politics has much to do with the relation of politics (power) to geography. Geo-politics assumes the primacy of states, existing military-economic competition, and ways to cement interest based cooperation. To operationalize this, strategy is the key factor, thereby bringing in the element of ‘geo-strategy’ implying the strategic significance of a particular region to a state’s strategic interests. Moreover, it is pertinent to underlie the tendencies of cooperation/competition that reverberate between China and India in the various Asian strategic regions.

In light of this, this session will deal with the following critical questions:-

What are the critical components of India’s geo-strategic approach to the major strategic regions of Asia?
Is there a priority of strategic regions in India’s conceptualization of geo-strategy?
What are the components and challenges of the Indian approach to major strategic regions of Asia? How can India refine its strategy towards Asian geopolitics?

Session VIII: Future trends and Scenarios emerging from the 17th Asian Security Conference

Based on the papers presented in the 17th ASC, as well as the main speeches, the last session will identify the key trends from each session, and then focus on three or four main drivers that could impact Asian security and India’s approach in the next few years (2015-2030). It will creatively formulate three or four plausible scenarios and present the findings in this last session.

Valedictory Session

1. Satish Kumar, et. al., “India’s Strategic Partners: A Comparative Assessment”, Foundation for National Security Research, New Delhi, November 2011 at http://fnsr.org/files/Indias_Strategic.pdf(Accessed on June 16, 2014).

2. Department of Defense, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”, January 2012 at http://www.defense.gov/news/defense_strategic_guidance.pdf (Accessed on June 20, 2014).

Programme Schedule

Programme

Day One: (February 11, 2015)

0930h-1000h	Registration & Tea

1000-1045h	Inaugural Session
	Welcome Remarks: Deputy Director General, Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd), IDSA
	Inaugural Address: Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral R K Dhowan, PVSM, AVSM, YSM
	Vote of Thanks: Deputy Director General, Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd), IDSA

1045h-1115h	Tea

1115h-1315h	Session I: Asian Regional Order
	Chair: Nalin Surie Namrata Goswami: India’s Strategic Approach to Asia: The Key Questions for the Conference Discourse Arndt Michael: Panchsheel-Multilateralism and Competing Regionalism – The Indian Approach towards Regional Cooperation and Regional Order in South Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Mekong-Ganga Santishree Pandit: India as the norm-builder and norm contributor of Asia and the World S D Muni: How India is viewed as a regional actor in Asia

1315h-1400h	Lunch

1400h-1600h	Session II: India and Strategic Partnerships: Impact on Asian Security
	Chair: Kanwal Sibal Phunchok Stobdan: Geopolitics and India-Russia Strategic Partnership Holli Semetko: Framing U.S.-India Relations Vo Xuan Vinh: India’s Strategic Partnership with Vietnam A Perspective from Vietnam Satoru Nagao: The Japan-India Strategic Partnership will be New Hope for Asia

1600h-1615h	Tea

1615h-1800h	Session III: Asian Economies and Resource Competition
	Chair: Charan Wadhva Rajat M. Nag: Development through Connectivity Sinderpal Singh: Debating Physical Connectivity between India and ASEAN: Economics vs Security Prem Mahadevan: The Impact of Terrorism and Organized Crime on Asian Economies: Implications for India Brahma Chellany: Sharpening Competition over Natural Resources in Asia

Day Two: (February 12, 2015)


0930h-1030h	Special Address
	Barry Gordon Buzan - Rising Powers in the Emerging World Order: An Overview, with a Reflection on the Consequences for India Chair: Amitabh Mattoo

1030h-1045h	Tea

1045h-1300h	Session IV: The Rise of China
	Chair: Chandrasekhar Dasgupta Madhu Bhalla: India-China relations: the return of the sub-region Pang Zhongying: China-India relations: Objectives and Future Priorities Gordon Chang: China’s Military Modernization and Impact on India D S Rajan:China and its Territorial Disputes: Increasing the Security Dilemma.

1300h-1400h	Lunch

1400h-1600h	Session V: Maritime Security in Asia
	Chair: Anup Singh Gurpreet Khurana: Indian Maritime Doctrine and Asian Security: Intentions and Challenges David Brewster: The Bay of Bengal: the Indo-Pacific’s New Zone of Strategic Competition Abhijit Singh: India’s Security Role in Maritime-Asia Francis Kornegay: Deciphering Oriental Mysteries of Silk, Pearls & Diamonds: Maritime Dimensions of India’s Strategic Dilemmas in the Changing Asian Power Balance

1600h-1615h	Tea

1615h-1815h	Session VI: Space, Cyber, Biological, Chemical, and Nuclear Security in Asia
	Chair: V. Siddhartha Sean Costigan: Emerging Risks in Cybersecurity: Anticipating Change and Building Resilience Ranjana Kaul: India's Approach to Space Security Animesh Roul: Chemical and Biological Dimension of Jihadi Terrorism Rajiv Nayan: The Emerging Asian Nuclear Order

Day Three: (February 13, 2015)

0930-0945h	Tea

0945-1300h	Session VII: Major Strategic Regions of Asia
	Chair: C. Uday Bhaskar Ashok Behuria and Smruti Pattanaik: India’s Regional Strategy: Balancing Geopolitics with Geoeconomics in South Asia Micha’el Tanchum: India in the new Central Asian Strategic Landscape: Opportunities for Deeper Partnerships and New Alliance Formations Simon Xu Hui Shen: East Asian Scenarios Shankari Sundararaman: Dynamics of Change in India- Southeast Relations: Beyond Economics to Strategic Partnership

1300h-1400h	Lunch

1400h-1545h	Session VIII: Future trends and Scenarios
	Chair: B K Sharma Boris Volkhonsky: Strategic Trends in Asia: Future Directions Samuel Rajiv: Strategic Trends and Scenarios 2025: Policy Options for India Shruti Pandalai: Decoding India’s Agenda: New Ideas and Emerging Trends in Asian Security

1545-1600h	Tea

1600h-1645h	Valedictory Session
	Valedictory Address by Deputy National Security Advisor India, Dr. Arvind Gupta
	Vote of thanks by Conference Coordinator

Conference Booklet

Rapporteurs Report

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Asian Security Conference

Roundtable on “Partnering with Africa”

May 19, 2016

1530 hours

Round Table

India and Africa have shared a close relationship that has hinged on the common struggle against colonialism, apartheid, poverty, disease, illiteracy and hunger. This relationship has gained a new momentum in the recent years. Greater economic engagement has been crucial to boosting ties between Africa and India. The third India-Africa Forum Summit, held in New Delhi last year, reinforced India's interest in partnering with countries of the African continent in diverse fields.

As a partner in its development, India celebrates Africa's achievements. So, on the occasion of Africa Day, observed every year on May 25 to commemorate the founding of the Organisation of African Unity (now known as the African Union), the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) in collaboration with the African Studies Association of India (ASA) is organising a roundtable on the theme “Partnering with Africa” on Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 1530 hours, in Seminar Hall 1 (Second Floor).

Shri Birender Singh Yadav, Joint Secretary, West Africa, Ministry of External Affairs will deliver the special address and Shri Jayant Prasad, Director General, IDSA will moderate the discussion.

Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN

Talk by Peter Hofbauer on Very light weight diesel engines

May 06, 2016

1500 hrs

Other

The Strategic Technologies Centre of IDSA is organising a Round Table discussion by Dr Peter Hofbauer, an Austrian born engineer and inventor now living in US. The discussion will be held on Friday, May 6, 2016 at 3 PM in the Boardroom # 104, First Floor.

North America & Strategic Technologies

Monograph launch titled "Turmoil in West Asia: The Sectarian Divide Shapes Regional Competitions"

April 19, 2016

1200 hrs

Other

Venue: Room no 005 (Ground Floor), IDSA

Programme

Launch of the monograph Shri Jayant Prasand, Director General, IDSA

Remarks by the author, Amb. Talmiz Ahmad - The Sectarian Divide in West Asian Politics: An Historical Perspective

Amb. Sanjay Singh - Sectarianism in Iran's regional politics

Dr. Mahtab Alam Rizvi, IDSA Scholar - The Saudi-Iran Divide: Can it be Bridged?

Amb. Ranjit Gupta - Shaping an Indian Role for a Cooperative Security Framework in West Asia

Eurasia & West Asia

Talk by Ashok K. Kantha on "India-China Relations: Looking Ahead"

April 18, 2016

1500 hrs

Other

Shri Ashok K. Kantha is India's former Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (PRC).

East Asia

Challenges of Human Resource Management – Transition of a Soldier to second Career

April 22, 2016

Pradeep Sofat

1030 to 1300 hrs

Fellows' Seminar

Chairperson: Lt Gen Mukesh Sabharwal (Retd.)

Discussants:
Brig S K Sharma (Retd.)
Brig Narender Kumar
Col Vikram Taneja
Col Vivek Chadha (Retd.)

Military Affairs

Round Table Discussion on a book titled "Globalizing India: How Global Rules and Markets are Shaping India’s Rise to Power”

March 30, 2016

1000 to 1200 hrs

Book Discussion Forum

Venue: Room no 005 (Ground Floor), IDSA

Author of the Book

Dr Aseema Sinha is Visiting Fellow, IDSA.

North American

Talk by Ayesha Siddiqa on "Emerging Civil Military relations in Pakistan"

March 30, 2016

1030 hrs

Other

Venue: Board room, First floor, IDSA

Pakistan project of IDSA is organising a talk on "Emerging Civil Military relations in Pakistan" by well known Pakistan security Analyst and author of the Military Inc, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa on Wednesday, March 30, 2016 in the Board room, First floor at 10.30 AM.

South Asia

Understanding National Security Implications of Climate Risks

March 15, 2016

Round Table

Special Guest Speaker: Sir David King, the UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative on Climate Change

Background

The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) along with other international partners, including the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO-UK), recently undertook a risk assessment of climate change impacts across the world. As part of it, a war game scenario exercise was undertaken in India which Sir David King, the UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative on Climate Change, led with CEEW.

The gaming exercise highlighted two important points: (i) climate impacts will further pressurise the security establishments of countries across the world, and (ii) for ensuring national security, defence personnel will need to engage not only with defence experts, but also with climate scientists, social scientists, and economists.

As a follow up of the joint research effort, CEEW and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) held a roundtable discussion with some key defence and national security experts of India to elicit views on the critical issue of the implications of climate induced risks for national security and on how these can be mitigated. The discussion aimed at initiating a long term and deeper engagement of scientists and policy makers with Indian defence and national security experts.

Welcome Remarks

The discussion started with welcome remarks by Mr. Jayant Prasad, Director General IDSA. In his opening remarks, Mr. Prasad stressed that national security is a paramount concern for India, and experts on national security need to be aware about threats to national security arising from various quarters. Our defence forces deal with natural formations like ice-capped mountains and rivers and any impact on these is bound to have concerns for national security. He highlighted that the cross boundary issue is very important. Any intervention in China as a response to climatic disasters can have huge implications for India. The national security community has until now mainly dealt with traditional threats while the climate community has dealt with climate impacts in a general way. It is important that these two communities interact and there is an improved understanding of climate change impacts on national security within India’s defence establishment.

Introduction

Dr. Arunabha Ghosh informed the participants about the global climate risk assessment work undertaken by CEEW, UK-FCO, Harvard University, and Tsinghua University jointly. He informed that this risk assessment exercise was based on intensive collaboration with domain experts. One of the most interesting elements of this assessment exercise, that is relevant for the internal security debate, was a war gaming exercise. This war gaming exercise was hosted by CEEW in India, and had representation from the scientific community, defence community, and policy making community across the major nations of the world including China, India, UK, USA among other nations.

The exercise highlighted that we live in a probabilistic world, and climate change impacts will increase the uncertainties around the weather systems. Planning for resource management will have to deal with these increased uncertainties. In addition, there could be unforeseen shocks to the system with unexpected responses from various countries that will pressurise the national security establishments.

The aim of this discussion is to start a dialogue between the national security and climate risk communities within India and prepare for these newly emerging challenges to India’s national security.

Special Address by Sir David King

Sir David King in his special address discussed three important themes. First theme was of environmental migration. He informed the group that one of the reasons that led to the Arab Spring was the sharp increase in food prices. Environmental impacts are manifested in different ways. Many of these are catastrophic extreme events like cyclones and floods. The difference is in terms of how long-lasting the impact is. A drought can increase the prices of essential food commodities for the whole season/year. Such shocks impact a large section of the society, especially the poor, who are forced to migrate, creating pressure on resources and infrastructure on other parts. This leads to an increase in conflicts and has implications for national security.

Second theme was of climate risks. Science has unequivocally shown that climate impacts are increasing. There are different kinds of risks - systematic risks and unsystematic risks. We need to have a better understanding of both. Once we understand the different kind of risks, we need to understand their probabilities, most likely to least likely. Sir David emphasised that we need to plan for not just the most likely impacts, but also for impacts that are less likely but have catastrophic implications. Both systematic and unsystematic risks will have implications for internal as well as external security that needs to be understood in a better way.

Third theme dealt with global cooperation. In terms of the response of governments, national security is generally based on unilateral actions. Responses to climate change related impacts could however lead to wider cross-country conflicts. For example, the war gaming exercise led by FCO-UK and CEEW with other partners highlighted a scenario in which there is a climate change induced drought leading to high crop production losses in China, because of which China stops exports of key crops. This leads to similar protectionist measures by other countries and an increase in global commodity prices leading to unrest and conflict within and between countries. Countries across the world think about their own national security, not of the larger world outside. Impacts of climate change cannot be managed this way. Global cooperation needs to be enhanced for addressing national security implications due to climate change and there is no alternative to this.

Key Discussion Outcomes

Following are the key points that emerged from the discussion among the participants:

An evolved understanding of national security: An interesting point raised by the security experts was that the traditional way of looking at national security and defence has largely been determined by geopolitical concerns. The evidence and insights shared by the experts on climate risks however suggests that national security and defence will need to be viewed from an angle of natural environment and climate impacts as well. Does this mean that we are proposing a new theory of war and national security? This is an interesting question and needs to be reflected upon by the stakeholders.

Improved risk assessment methodology: Our understanding of how to characterise risks is improving, but it still has a lot of room for improvement. It is clear that we need to have more rigorous analytical frameworks for a better understanding of climate risks. It was recognised that there are private insurance firms that have quantitative experts trying to better characterise climate risks. However how climate risks can impact national security adds another layer of complexity to it. Current risk assessment frameworks are a very good beginning, but are limited in nature. Risk assessment experts need to enhance and improve the methodological framework for better understanding of risks and their linkages with national security.

Existing risks to the defence forces: Climate change is always perceived to be a very long-term debate, with a horizon of many decades. We need to realise that impacts are already happening. Incidences like avalanches and flash floods have been increasing and this has negatively impacted our defence forces. Location of military bases could be impacted by global warming and climate change. There are such near terms risks for our forces that need to be identified and adapted to. Climate change impacts can’t be viewed as only a long-term risk anymore.

Increasing pressure on disaster management forces: Armed forces are being increasingly called upon as an initial point of response to natural disasters in India. There is an opportunity cost of using defence forces for disaster management. As the frequency of disasters increase, the resource allocation for the military too needs to increase. Hence climate change also impacts resource planning and allocation, and this aspect needs to be considered while understanding linkages between climate change and national security.

A longer term engagement between national security and climate risk experts in India: It was highlighted that Indian experts on national security have until now not engaged intensively with the climate risk experts. Also, the climate risk experts in India have focused on improved understanding of the risks but have not engaged with the national security experts informing them about the implications of climate change induced risks for India’s national security. The current discussion was intended as a first step in that direction and both these communities have to ensure that there is a continuous and long-term engagement between them.

Way Forward

Dr. Uttam Sinha gave the final vote of thanks to all the participants for engaging with this process. He mentioned that the views of national security experts are critical for better understanding of how climate risks would impact national security, as well as an improved understanding of climate risks itself. He re-emphasised that there is a need to build an understanding of climate risks within India, and it is critical now that we build on earlier research as well as the day’s discussions to institutionalise cooperation between the climate risk and national security communities within India. It is imperative that we strengthen this long-term cooperation for enhancing India’s national security.

List of Participants

Name	Organisation
Mr. Jayant Prasad	IDSA
Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha	IDSA
Col. (Retd.) P. K. Gautam	IDSA
Col. Pushpendra Mair	Research Scholar, TERI University
Ms. Shebonti Ray Dadwal	IDSA
Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik	IDSA
Dr. G. Balachandran	IDSA
Sir David King	FCO-UK
Ms. Frances Hooper	British High Commission, New Delhi
Mr. Sayantan Sarkar	British High Commission, New Delhi
Dr. Purnamita Dasgupta	Institute of Economic Growth (IEG)
Dr. Lydia Powell	Observer Research Foundation (ORF)
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh	CEEW
Dr. Vaibhav Chaturvedi	CEEW

Non-Traditional Security

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Events

DAY ONE: October 28, 2014

0930-1000 hours: Registration

1000-1030 hours: Inaugural Session

1100–1300 hrs - Session I: The Role of Media in Shaping Public Discourse in South Asia

1400-1530 hours - Session II: State of Media in South Asia: Country Perspectives

1545-1730 hrs - Session III State of Media in South Asia: Country Perspectives (contd.)

DAY TWO: October 29, 2014

1000-1130 hrs - Session IV: Influence of Media on Foreign and Security Policies of States

1145-1330 hrs - Session V: Can Media Play a Role in Promoting Regional Understanding? (Panel Discussion)

Conference Booklet

Rapporteurs Report

Thematic Sessions

Theme Elaboration

Session I: Asian Regional Order

Session II: India and Strategic Partnerships: Impact on Asian Security

Session III: Asian Economies and Resource Competition

Session IV: The Rise of China

Session V: Maritime Security in Asia

Session VI: Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, Cyber and Space Security in Asia

Session VII: Major Strategic Regions of Asia

Session VIII: Future trends and Scenarios emerging from the 17th Asian Security Conference

Valedictory Session

Programme

Day One: (February 11, 2015)

Day Two: (February 12, 2015)

Day Three: (February 13, 2015)

Conference Booklet

Rapporteurs Report

Programme

Author of the Book

Background

Welcome Remarks

Introduction

Special Address by Sir David King

Key Discussion Outcomes

Way Forward

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