Events

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi organised a discussion on the book Blinkers Off: How Will the World Counter China, authored by Ms Gaurie Dwivedi, on 15 December 2021. Conducted in an online format, the book discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and was attended by Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and members of the Institute’s East Asia Centre, who participated as discussants.

Summary: China’s constant aggressive foreign policy behaviour has taken the blinkers off its so-called peaceful rise, which is anything but peaceful. In this context, Gaurie Dwivedi’s book raises a pressing question: How will the world counter China? The author argues that just as contemporary engagement with China is multifaceted, likewise containment techniques too will have to be multi-pronged. In an engaging discussion, the author and the MP-IDSA scholars and members deliberated on different aspects of Chinese politics, foreign policy and ways to manage China’s rise.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy stated that the fractiousness of the geopolitical and geostrategic characteristics of the international situation suggests that it is a glove off moment. Further, the aggression demonstrated by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on multiple occasions has shattered the notion that China can do no wrong and has taken off the blinkers from the world’s eyes.

Referring to China’s White Paper titled “China: Democracy That Works”, Ambassador Chinoy contended that China is actively trying to demonstrate that the authoritarian system of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a manifestation of the highest form of democracy, which the West has not really experienced. Moreover, the brazenness with which China is upholding its perception of democracy (a select group of people deciding the fate of the rest) exhibits their confidence in their narrative. He observed that the international community is descending into a situation where the trouble is not only with regard to trade, technology and territorial disputes but also with regard to tenets. The discourse now is about who practices a better model of economic and political governance.

Commending the book, Ambassador Chinoy observed that it is an intensely readable book and will be highly useful to even a layperson interested in China. In a few crisp chapters, the book has highlighted all the key issues and gives an extensive overview of where the international community stands today vis-à-vis China.

Speaking about the book, the author, Ms Gaurie Dwivedi, stated that the book fills an important gap in the literature on how China is viewed, and more importantly how policymakers view China. She contended that there are a lot of detailed scholarly works on China and on the history of India–China relations, however, there is a need to view China differently in the 21st century. As the book is future-driven and forward-looking, it does not mention much about the history of India–China engagement. Explaining the rationale behind the title of the book, the author stated that the book urges the policymakers to understand that countering China with a commensurate amount of military power is a uni-dimensional view and that it will not be enough. Blinkers Off suggests that the readers understand the significance of having a multi-pronged containment strategy as China can weaponise the different avenues of engagement like trade, technology and information, in an event of a conflict.

Referring to Beijing’s use of social media to demonise democratically elected governments and to manipulate institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the author stated that the book attempts to initiate a discussion on these issues and also ways to respond to Chinese onslaughts. Also, the need to have a holistic and 360 degrees perspective about dealing with China.

Ms Dwivedi underscored some of the important questions addressed in the book, for instance, how China quickly rose to power and the popular narrative surrounding China’s rise and why it matters to the world. Elaborating on these questions, she contended that remnants of the Cold War played an important role in the United States’ (US) decision to choose the Chinese market for investment, which in turn played a major role in China’s initial economic growth. Further, since China is now economically powerful enough to infiltrate into the political fabric of any country, dictate terms of trade and influence global governance, China’s rise, therefore, matters to every country. The author further opined that in a few years, as China will become a bigger economy than the US, no single country will be capable enough to take on China. It is therefore important, to look at the set of countries that could play an important role in containing China.

Concluding her talk, Ms Dwivedi stated that China’s rise is concerning because it is not peaceful. Some of the aspects like Beijing’s willingness to weaponise non-military engagements between nations and President Xi Jinping’s ambitions of establishing himself as a permanent fixture in Chinese history through largely revisionist means demonstrate why China’s rise will not be peaceful. She contended that one of the possible strategies of managing China’s rise is through diversification of economic options. That is, instead of trading solely with China, countries need to adopt a ‘China plus one’ strategy that ensures enough economic exposure to other countries. Second, India can exploit the opportunity provided by China’s existing backwardness in the semiconductor industry and ramp up its domestic production. Control over semiconductor technology will force China to be more accommodative and limit its aggressive foreign policy conduct.

Following Ms Dwivedi’s presentation, Ambassador Chinoy commented that the Chinese culture is an important factor in understanding the party’s policies. Much of what the party is doing today is the legacy of Chinese civilisational attributes of conformity to group dynamics that supersedes the individual requirement. Similarly, various other policies like complete control and the system of meritocracy are part of the old mandarin system. He noted that although there are external influences like the Marxist-Leninist ideology, state capitalism and contemporary pop culture, Chinese civilisational attributes need to be understood while alluding to misconceptions regarding China.

Referring to the Sino-US competitive naval build-up, Ambassador Chinoy observed that the US might have fleets in lesser numbers but they are twice the size of Chinese ships in terms of tonnage. Further, the fact that the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size is unlikely to turn tables as the US economy has a tremendous capacity for innovation and R&D. He concluded by stating that when looking at the future of China, there is a three-factor frame—first is the leadership which comes and goes, second is the party which is a political structure, and third is China as a civilisational entity which will outlive everything else. Therefore, a deeper understanding of China as a civilisational entity constituted of its culture, language, agriculture, family planning and financing is necessary.

As the floor opened for discussion, the members of the East Asia Centre at MP-IDSA proffered their views on the book and about how the world will counter China. Dr Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator, remarked that the work is highly relevant in the present scenario as India is debating hard on China and also a consensus is gradually emerging between India and other powers regarding the need to counter China. He agreed with the author that while discussing ways to counter China, countries will have to look beyond the conventional military method and develop a multi-pronged strategy instead. He also mentioned that the international community needs to make a distinction between China and the Communist Party of China (CPC) and talk about the latter as it has a global outreach and has been provocative in nature. At the end of his remarks, he posed two questions to the author—first, why China needs to be countered? And second, if China becomes aggressive and assertive in its own style, then how will the world deal with it?

Following Dr Panda’s observations, Dr Prashant Kumar Singh, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, offered his remarks. He complimented the author for enriching the Indian debate on China and stated that China has been more of a puzzle. He mentioned that the problem is how to define the CPC,  which has tried to move away from the transactional promise of delivering growth as a source of its legitimacy to cultural roots of China and has tried to make the CPC a part of China’s cultural common sense. The biggest challenge CPC poses to the world is ideological, as China is exporting its capacity-centric philosophy to many parts of the world. However, the brighter aspect is that China is playing by the terms of the democratic world and this is where the democratic countries can have an upper hand over China.

Offering her comments, Dr M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, drew attention to the debates about China going on around the world and the need for an interdisciplinary discussion to introduce fresh perspectives in the debate. She noted that the issues of trade and technology that the book highlights are the two most important aspects with regard to China as Beijing is putting in a lot of effort to capture that spectrum. Also, the issues of trade and technology are dividing the world about ways to counter China. She asked the author about the advantages India could have if it follows the ‘China plus one’ strategy and also the possible stumbling blocks in achieving it. She also asked how the international community will counter the Chinese narrative of equating good governance with democracy.

Referring to the issue of raising the costs for China, Dr Titli Basu, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, asked about what realistic and practical potential multipolar solidarity holds in shaping Chinese behaviour. Also, with regard to domestic dynamics, she asked about the author’s assessment of the pressing challenges in front of China as it advances towards the 20th Party Congress.

Ms Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst with East Asia Centre, raised two questions—first, why China wants to change the international order from which it has benefitted hugely in the past; and second, how the world can manage the Chinese threat in ungoverned spaces like cyberspace and outer space where there are no defined norms of behaviour.

Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, commented that the notion of China’s peaceful rise is a myth. For a long time, various countries have sidelined their political and military unease with China and kept doing business as usual. However, post-pandemic, the world has finally woken up to the threat China poses. He highlighted China’s disregard for international rules, their tendency to doublespeak and expressed the need to develop new negotiating techniques to deal with China.

During the Q&A session, Dr Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA asked about the author’s view on the rising trade numbers with China, despite the blinkers being off after the Ladakh incident. Capt Anurag Bisen (IN), Research Fellow, also asked about the disconnect between the business and the strategic community in India with regard to how they see or view China.

Responding to the comments and remarks, Ms Dwivedi highlighted the various drawbacks and the exploitative nature of the Chinese infrastructural projects, which can be countered by initiatives like Build Back Better World (B3W) or the Blue Dot Network. She also emphasised the role of international agencies in managing Chinese behaviour in cyber and outer space. Furthermore, she contended that trade deficits can be strategically used as leverage against China to ensure favourable trading terms or for strategic gains.

Report prepared by Ms Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

The webinar was conducted by the Institute on Monday, 13 December 2021. Group Captain A. Karunakaran (Research Fellow, MP-IDSA) was the speaker and Commodore Abhay Singh (Research Fellow, MP-IDSA) moderated the session.

Executive Summary

The session underscored the historical context of UAS, their use beginning from the 18th century, Chinese and Pakistani UAS programmes, and the Indian industries’ perspective on the “Make in India” drive by the Government of India for robust UAS defence-based use.

Detailed Report

Commodore Abhay Singh introduced the topic by pointing how Unmanned Aircraft Systems or Drones are an area of strength and strategic opportunities, having implications for national security. Additionally, they have an increasingly significant role to play in varying areas including economy, mining, transportation, and mapping. In August 2021, the Government of India introduced a policy to realise the ambitions of India’s emergence as a Global Drone Hub. The growing significance attached to drones could be understood from the report unveiled by the BIS Research, highlighting how the Global Drone Market accounts for $28 billion this year. While drones are gaining popularity in India, most of them and their components are currently imported. The government is taking various initiatives and measures within India to overcome such challenges by encouraging Indian Industries.

Group Captain A. Karunakaran quoted a former American General Henry H. Arnold, who in the post-World War II era had predicted how the relevance of unmanned aircraft would overtake manned vehicles in the theatre of future war. He also explained how Unmanned Aircraft Systems have several nomenclatures such as Unmanned Aerial Systems, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA), Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPV), and Drones across industries in the world. However, he chose UAVs as the focal point of his presentation. UAVs are powered aerial vehicles, lack crew, can be piloted or operated remotely, carry objects that are lethal or non-lethal. He also elaborated about Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs). They are also UAVs with Artificial Intelligence, greater maneuverability and greater self-protection capability.

The speaker went on to delineate the history of the UAVs, beginning from the 18th century when Pilotless and Explosive-Laden Balloons came into the picture and were sent across territorial or maritime borders. He gave examples such as Austria using such devices against Italy, United States of America during its civil war in 1861 and Japan adopting a similar tactic in 1944 against the Americans. Kites were also relied upon as UAVs. During World War I &II radio-controlled target drones proved advantageous for anti-aircraft training purposes.

Although the use of target drones continued in the post-WWII era, it did not replace the heavy reliance or the focus of research and development on manned vehicles. During the 1960s, when an American pilot, Gary Powers was shot down and captured by the Soviets, the emphasis began to be shifted toward the use of UAVs. Between the 1960s-2013, the conversion of manned to unmanned drones began to occur for undertaking dull, dirty and dangerous reconnaissance missions. Apart from intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, UAVs can also be used in the form of armed UAVs. Some UAVs are designed to be destroyed after hitting the intended target (Kamikaze mode). Swarm Drones have achieved a lot of fame across the globe and are gaining importance for tactical purposes. Furthermore, a lot of countries have lately begun directing a lot of their research toward UCAVs. UAVs were extensively used in conflicts such as the Vietnam War, Yom Kippur War, Gulf War, Bekka Valley Operation, and the Balkans War.

The debate surrounding UAVs took on a new role beginning from the Global War on Terror in 2001. USA used predator drones to eliminate individual targets and the most recent example is the attack on an IS-K target in August 2021 in Afghanistan by use of the MQ9 Reaper UAV. In 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also witnessed extensive use of kamikaze drones.

Indian drones are subject to rules and regulations such as the Drone Rules- 2021 released in August 2021 by the Ministry of Civil Aviation. Similarly, in the Defence arena the Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (2013) was released with the modified version given in 2018. The different categories of civil drones include Nano drones, Micro drones, Small, Medium drones and are used for matters such as police patrol, agriculture, and medical supplies. The defence-based drones are classified as (High Altitude Long Endurance) HALE, (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) MALE, Tactical, VTOL, Micro/mini, and UCAV. The latter is used for locating terrorists and combat-based purposes.

Group Captain Karunakaran spoke about the Chinese UAV Programme. He said it is also crucial to highlight how China has relied upon UAVs and built a robust aviation programme, beginning from 1950s. Government support, reliable infrastructure, quality education, research and development have collectively helped China in this domain. Collaboration and Joint Ventures with other countries and clandestine operations also aided China in its objectives. The three phases of China’s UAV programme include its Formative Phase (1949-1960), where Reverse Engineering of Soviet and American target drones gave huge momentum to their UAV Programme. The Chinese later converted manned aircraft to target drones. The second was the Consolidation Phase (1960-2001), where there were tie-ups with leading manufacturing companies to produce next-generation aircraft. Finally, the Exploratory Phase (since 2001) is where focus on enabling technology began. The organisational set-up headed by the Central Military Commission steered the UAV Programme as National Will. Aerospace Universities and the Aerospace Industries have supported the Chinese aviation programme and are instrumental in its reaching great heights. China has collaborated with other countries and hired individual experts, including those of Indian origin, to produce futuristic technology. Its aviation industry, having set up in 1950, has matured over the years. It has designed 40 and built 1500 types of UAVs. The origin of sub-parts procured by companies such as Boeing is often traced back to China. China has also procured the required technology through means of Deception, Espionage and Cyber-Attacks on American defence contractors to acquire Technologies.

Focusing on Pakistanis UAV Programme, the speaker stated that its UAV programme emerged after the US embargo was proposed under the Pressler Amendment Act in 1990. It owes the development of its programme to PSUs and aid extended by the Chinese. The private sector also had a significant role to play in this process. Pakistan has gone for an indigenous setup of its UAV programme to encourage industries. Americans are hesitant to supply UAVs to Pakistan, lest they fall into the Chinese hands. Earlier, Pakistan had to start from scratch in defence manufacturing since most of the Ordnance factories were in India before Partition. After partition in 1947, the country focused on medium and small-sized UAVS due to economic constraints. They have been used in the border areas patrol and for Intelligence Service and Reconnaissance (ISR) role; aiding terrorists to push across the borders.

While dwelling on the Indian UAV Programme, the speaker mentioned that India’s UAV indigenous development began at Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) around the year 2000. A number of UAVs were at varying stages of development. Meanwhile for strategic purposes India imported UAVs such as Harpy, Harop, Searcher, Heron UAVs. Purchase of armed MQ9 Reaper by India is in the pipeline. India has also gone for explosive-laden sky-striker drones, procuring them from Israel. India’s private sector is at a nascent stage. India’s progress in UAV development has certain challenges such as design and developmental challenges, technology denials by the Americans, lack of synergy between the government agencies and the private industry.

The roadmap for India’s successful UAV programme will center on facets such as self-reliance (Made in India programme), instituting time-bound action plans, synergising civil-military aviation manufacturing, investment in research and development, supporting indigenous projects, acceptance of failure, excellence in aeronautics education, and formulation of next-generation aviation traffic management systems etc. Overall, the survey on Private Industries conducted by the speaker shows a positive outlook trajectory and brings out certain amendments that need to be brought about in policy.
The Q/A session consisted of a discussion on varying facets including remarks and questions by the Director General Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, who referred to China making use of foreign experts to develop technologies, including through engagement with experts from Russia and Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He also highlighted how Indian experts have provided their expertise to China earlier and guidelines to curb such activities should be issued by the government to this effect and how the Sea Guardian drones have been acquired on lease from the Americans for the use of the Indian Navy. He raised questions about the future of the UAVs, primarily the loitering weapons, and if such weapons could be solar-powered for far-reaching endurance. His comment also highlighted one potential threat of the UAVs carrying human payload across borders. He emphasised that future airspace needs to be integrated with manned and unmanned aircraft, therefore traffic management will be a huge challenge.

Dr. Cherian Samuel raised pertinent points about the rationale behind extending the Border Security Force (BSF) jurisdiction; DRDO potentially monopolising the UAV domain since the private initiatives have failed. Captain Anurag Bisen referred to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where the drones proved to be a game-changer. He also questioned if we would follow a similar pathway that Americans have (transitioning more toward unmanned aerial vehicles) to mitigate the shortage of personnel. Since 2010, the U.S. has commissioned more unmanned systems vis-à-vis manned systems. Furthermore, he talked about the need for instituting international laws to govern this domain.

Dr. Sanur Sharma had raised the issue of drone development, India’s current status, and Counter Drone Technology. Dr. Rajiv Nayan asked a question pertaining to the Armed Forces’ perspective regarding UAV-based challenges from Pakistan, China, and non-state actors, and underscored the role of academic institutions in studying this domain. The Deputy Director General, Major Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi emphasised that research on policy governing Unmanned Aircraft, Unmanned Ground Vehicles and Underwater Vehicles employability with International Law need to be carried out. He also referred to the policy paper circulated two months ago in this regard and encouraged the relevant Centre’s to produce a more in-depth study on the topic of discussion today.

Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the South Asia Centre,   Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on the topic ‘Political Developments in Pakistan’ at the Monday Morning Webinar on 29th November 2021. The webinar was chaired by Dr. Pushpita Das, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Director General (DG), Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Vishal Chandra, Research Fellow, Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, Dr.  Gulbin Sultana, Research Analyst, Mr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Analyst and Dr. Zainab Akhter, Research Analyst participated as panelists.

Executive Summary

Dr. Ashok K. Behuria analyzed the trajectories of the emerging political landscape, the state of civil-military relations and internal security developments in Pakistan.

Detailed Report

The chair Dr. Pushpita Das in her introductory remarks highlighted the emerging fault lines between the ruling government and the Army during the latest appointment of the Director-General (DG) of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Dr. Pushpita noted that the Imran Khan-led regime has been sidelined by the generals while selecting the new DG of ISI. She also noted that the hasty reconciliation between the government and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) indicates the ruling regime’s surrender to the demands of hardline religious groups. With these words, the chair invited the speaker, Dr. Ashok Behuria to elaborate on these issues.

Dr. Ashok Behuria dwelt on the continuing political tussle between the government and the opposition and highlighted the growing discord between the two on several policy matters. The opposition, he said, targeted the government particularly on its economic and foreign policy choices and its failure to check the rising inflation in the country. He mentioned that the opposition had so far taken out around 23 protest marches against the government. He also pointed out that unflustered by all this, the Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (PTI) government led by the Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan had passed 33 bills in the joint sitting of parliament on 17 November without holding talks with the opposition to evolve a consensus. The controversial bills which were passed included bills related to use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in the coming elections, the Anti-Rape Bill and bills related to the International Court of Justice.

The speaker noted that behind-the-scene manipulations by the deep state ensured a majority for the government in the joint sitting to pass these bills. The speaker maintained that the government and the opposition may not also necessarily be on the same page even on important national security matters.

Similarly, the speaker also referred to the latest controversy surrounding the recent leaked-audiotapes of former Chief Justice Saqib Nisar where he was heard telling someone that it was imperative to keep Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz behind bars to bring Imran Khan to power. According to the speaker, the growing nexus between the Judiciary and the Army particularly concerning the recent tapes cannot be ignored, and the controversy that followed furthered widened the gulf between the government and the opposition. The speaker stressed that though the nexus between the Judiciary and Army is not new to Pakistan, however, recently it had become more visible. He noted that in recent years, the opposition had been criticizing the Army like never before. Moreover, the opposition questioned the legitimacy of the ruling dispensation on the ground that the present government is at the helm of power through a “stolen election.”

In the second part of the talk, Dr. Ashok dealt with civil-military relations and held that there might have been some signs of disruption between them in previous months, however, after Saqib Nisar tapes emerged, the Imran Khan government and the Army seemed to work closely together, which pointed to a civil-military reconciliation at the moment. However, the speaker maintained that the public opinion is shifting away from Khan to the opposition for which the military might be looking for an alternative to Imran Khan in the next elections.

The third theme pertained to military-militant issues. The speaker held that there was a deep historical relationship between the Army and the militant hardliner religious groups and stressed that it was the Army that brought religious groups like TLP to the mainstream to delegitimize Sharif’s politics and accused him of being un-Islamic. The Army, he said, had used these groups tactically both in the past and in the present, but he cautioned that these groups were not monolithic and some elements within these groups operated beyond the influence of the Army. He dwelt on the backdoor agreements between the Army and the TLP and lately with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and said that TTP wanted to establish Islamic rule in Pakistan like the Taliban in Afghanistan. Therefore, the Army was trying hard to divert their attention towards India and particularly towards Kashmir.

The speaker noted that whenever Pakistan faced any major internal/domestic crisis, the Army always tried to divert the attention of groups threatening it from within towards India. The recent spike in infiltration bids along the Line of Control (LoC) pointed to this trend, he argued. The speaker emphasized that in the coming days, such developments would increase. He also brought it out in his presentation that the state-controlled media in Pakistan had hardened their position on Kashmir and India and this was on expected lines given the internal political, economic and security challenges that Pakistan was beset with.

Comments, Observations and Questions from the participants

The Director General in his comments held that any upheaval in Pakistan would ultimately affect India and cautioned that the vicarious pleasure that Indians tend to derive from the economic and political crises that Pakistan is beset with will not help India strategically. He maintained that the Army had a final say in Pakistan politics as well as its foreign policy choices and reminded the audience that Pakistan Army’s mindset was still rooted in what they called as unfinished business of partition when it comes to Jammu and Kashmir.

Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik noted that although Imran Khan had completed his four years in power, his government is mired in scandals related to corruption, rising inflation among other challenges in the domestic sphere and therefore the Army is waiting for the right opportunity to find an alternative to him. She maintained that the opposition parties, particularly Shahbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto, seemed to be willing to work with the Army.

In the Q&A session, the speaker responding to the queries, held that even if developments in Afghanistan did not have any direct bearing on the civil-military relations in Pakistan, it had emboldened the Jihadi-radical elements which would pose a critical challenge to the Pakistani state in future. He held that the economic crisis may provide fuel to the opposition to take on the government but that may not affect Imran Khan’s political fortunes very much, as help from China, Saudi Arabia and US was likely to come in to help Pakistan tide over the crisis. Dr. Ashok noted that the Army had played a tactical role in striking a deal between the TLP and the ruling government, however, while referring to past deals, he stressed that the present understanding between the TLP and the government might be reversed, depending upon the calculation of the army and the prevailing security scenario in future. He also cautioned that there are varied sorts of elements within these religious groups that can disrupt the army's strategies despite their warming up to the army. 

Key Takeaways:

The latest political crisis (leaked tapes, judicial crisis, opposition parties protests, Imran Khan Government’s collusion with the religious hardliners) and economic crisis (rising inflation, Pakistan rupee depreciating to its lowest ever value) have led to massive criticism of Imran Khan's policies, but as per the speaker, the multiple crises will not affect his immediate political and electoral prospects.

On the political front, Imran Khan continues to enjoy the support of the Army and Judiciary.

The Opposition parties are rather in disarray and lack the institutional and mass support to challenge Imran Khan on the political domain as a united front.

On the economic front, there are no imminent chances of a collapse. In addition to the strong institutional incentives in the domestic sphere, China does not want Pakistan to collapse. Even the United States will come to its aid if there is an economic collapse.

The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan have energized Islamists in Pakistan like never before.

Any major upheavals in Pakistan have direct and indirect security implications for India, particularly concerning the infiltration and cross border skirmishes in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

The Report has been prepared by Mohd. Usman Bhatti, Research Assistant, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.

In the Monday Morning Webinar held on November 22, 2021, Col. Manish Rana, Research Fellow, Defense Economics & Industry Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on the topic “Systems Approach to Procurement – An Historical Perspective". Col. Vivek Chadha, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. The Webinar aimed to draw certain lessons from the patterns which were emerging through study of the history of defence procurement in India and also try to understand the complexities by adopting a Systems Approach. The webinar also attempted to identify the fixes that have failed due to interaction of various elements and sub-systems within the defence procurement system in India, to enable guide the decision makers in formulating better and enduring Defence Procurement Policy.

The speaker gave a brief introduction to the Systems Approach to explain what it means and how it works, as also how we can utilize it in our Defence procurement system as such. He brought out that any organization is created with some objective in mind based on a felt need and it consists of various sub-systems and elements which interact with each other to provide the desired outcome. However, over a period of time these relations start affecting each other’s way of working and outcome leading to reduction in efficiency and problems start surfacing. When the problem is identified, the aim is to get the feedback from the environment as to what is happening and why it is happening and based on that feedback the changes in the interaction of the sub elements /sub systems are introduced to make the organization behave in a particular way or come out with a outcome which is desired.

Col. Manish Rana brought out that Systems Approach focuses on a problem which emerges with the interaction among the elements in society, enterprises, and the environment. When we see a problem, we don’t see a problem in isolation we see the genesis of that problem in the interaction with the other sub-systems and sub-elements within that system and accordingly we consider various responses to come out with the solution. As told by Albert Einstein “The significant problems we face today cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which they were created”.  That is the thought process behind analyzing a problem from a different perspective from a different point of view and from a different level of thinking. The crux remains that complete system is more than the simple sum of the elements which are existing in it (“Whole is greater than sum of the parts”). And for the organizational problem solving the systems thinking approach offers a higher level of thinking.

The speaker talked about Defence procurement as a system.  Major sub-system/elements which come into play into this system are Service Headquarters, MoD, Industry and external factors. Service headquarters in itself is a kind of system which have various sub-systems within itself (Operations, Perspective planners, procurement sections, maintenance sections). MoD also is a smaller system or a sub-system having various departments under it. Further we have Industry as another major element which forms part of procurement system. Industry includes Indian entities, Foreign OEMs, Start-ups, MSMEs, DPSUs. Another major factor which needs consideration is the external environment. The procurement system directly or indirectly interacts with the external environment through MEA policies, PMO directives, Ministries relating to Industries and MSMEs etc. All these elements can be brought together under one system to be able to define the system of defence procurement and there interactions amongst each other and its effect on the outcome if studied objectively will give us leverage points to ensure system continues to produce the desired outcome.

Concept of causal loops as a tool for systems analysis was explained and “Fixes that Fail ‘Archetypes was discussed by the speaker. This behavioral pattern suggests that to fulfil a particular need or gap whatever action you take that may give you certain results in the short run, however, it may also happen that over a long term this particular action causes some unintended consequence which over a period come back to haunt us and keep increasing the problem further. Aim of adopting a Sytems approach is to identify such possibilities by study of behavioral patterns in history to avoid introducing a fix which may fail again.

Col. Manish Rana discussed the Historical Perspective of Procurement in India and highlighted that modern Defence industry which was setup in India before 1947 was essentially to meet the colonial interests. They had created a particular system towards which small mills, gun powder factories, gun carriages production facilities etc were set up for whatever limited requirement they had. The British rulers were not inclined towards making bigger weapon systems or undertaking major defence projects in India as the cost of producing those systems in India was appreciated to be higher as compared to procuring them from England. The initial infrastructure that was set up at that time was very limited in scope for various reasons which were suiting the colonial power at that time and was able to at best meet the Indian Armed Forces requirement of so called Quartermaster stores only.

Speaker mentioned about the Industrial policy of 1956 and its impact on defence procurement and production. It was a major turning point in the Indian Defence Production system. The 1956 Industrial Policy was in accordance with the national objective of socialist pattern of society at that time, towards which the public sector was given a push. Government had recognised and realised that the planned and rapid development is the need of the day. However, the industrial base in India at that time was not able to give the results that were required and not able to put in the required capital in major sectors like defence. Hence, the basic sectors and some strategically important sectors were put directly under the control of the government. The State assumed direct responsibility for the future development of industries over a wide area. Like exclusive responsibility of Railways and Air transport, arms and ammunition and atomic energy.

Research and development in various fields was also realized to be an important aspect and towards this the DRDO was established in 1958. Prof. PMS Blackett played a major role to guide the government and helped government to take the policies forward. Unfortunately, as per PMS Blackett the threat perception of India which was very limited and he suggested that India needs to procure weapons system to cater for their internal turmoil and limited external threat only. In one of his documents, it is also mentioned that he had advised the government to take a holistic threat perspective and come out with likely future scenarios and based on that decide what defence equipment factories and projects should be established by the Government of India. Which somehow did not happen, and we kept on struggling with the limited resources. Whereas the future of science was realised in other sectors and developments happened accordingly. Col. Manish Rana emphasized that the crux of the matter remains that we rightly pushed for the public sector units but we did not realise at that time was the need for gestation period in procurement and the production of defence equipment as also necessity of comprehensive threat assessment based requirements in defence.

Col. Manish Rana linked India’s dependence on Russia to the geopolitical realities of 60’s and 70’s when China-Pakistan and USA were coming closer. At that time, we went for a treaty with Russia in 1971 i.e., Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation and focus shifted to import of defence equipment through Govt to Govt negotiations and single vendor contracts. Though we did not lose sight of indigenous capacity enhancement, towards which licensed production contracts were introduced. But the desired aim was not met as there was limited transfer of technology. Over a period of time we went into comfort zone and got used to single vendor procurements. However, in 1990s as industrial capacities started improving and economy got liberalised, defense production started opening up to private sector and we also started diversifying our import of defence products from other countries as well. Since multi-vendor acquisitions are complex and time consuming the institutional deficiencies started coming to fore. India realised that it needs to formalise the procedures and reduce discretion amongst decision makers involved in defence procurements. The Public Accounts Committee of Parliament in its 187th Report in 1989 recommended that Government should draw up comprehensive guidelines relating to defence purchases and contracts. Later the Kargil War and consequent recommendations from Group of Ministers ensured we started working on policy aspects with a renewed purpose of strengthening our system. Director General of Defence Acquisition was created in MoD and detailed procedural guidelines called Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) were promulgated in 2002 (revised in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2020). Offsets were also introduced in 2005.

Col. Manish Rana presented a causal loop with capability gaps as the main focus and steps taken to cover them since independence. How the various factors like indigenous solutions, public sector units, Global purchases etc affected our overall process were discussed in detail. He concluded that crux of the systems approach is to have a simple solution and gaining maximum advantage by identifying historical patterns and leverage points in causal loops. He highlighted that historically it has been seen that encouraging Research and Development and striking a balance between import and indigenous development may be the key to success of Defence Procurement as a System. Constant threat evaluation is required so that we don’t end up splurging on the things that we don’t require. Also he left the audience with the thought of what should be our focus, should we ‘Indigenise the past or learn lessons from past and try to indigenise the Future’.

Thanking the speaker for a comprehensive analysis and the valuable insights, the Chair Col. Vivek Chadha called on Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, to share his remarks on the theme. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy congratulated the presenter for the insightful presentation and mentioned instances where India has done well in indigenizing defence systems. However, he raised the question of the barriers that have impeded India’s beginning in the realm of indigenised defence systems. Amb. Chinoy also mentioned that “Whenever India has decided to make something in India, it has done very good” and gave examples of the recently unveiled INS Vishakhapatnam as India’s success story.

Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi (Retd) DDG, MP-IDSA highlighted that our services have been reluctant to go for indigenous weapons till recently. Maj. Gen. Bakshi said that one of the reasons is that technological gaps are still there. He mentioned that Covid-19 has given fillip to indigenisation by exposing dependencies on global supply chains. He also emphasized that we need to strike a balance between foreign and indigenous sources.

The Panelist Samuel Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commented that there is a need for a re-emphasis on Atmanirbhar Bharat. He said that the whole point of indigenisation is to reduce the capacity gap so we need to measure how much of capacity gap can be filled. However, the speaker Col. Manish Rana disagreed that there is a reluctance in the Indian armed forces to adopt Indian weapons. The floor was then opened for the Q&A session which emphasised on the need to improve processes, and barriers to these improvements.

Report prepared by Richa Tokas, Research Intern, Defence Economics & Industry Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.