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Title	Date	Author	Time	Event	Body	Research Area	Topics	File attachments	Image
Monday Morning Meeting on Evolving Trade and Investment Ties with Europe	April 15, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on “Evolving Trade and Investment Ties with Europe” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 15 April 2024. The session was moderated by Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute attended the session. Executive Summary On 10 March 2024, member states of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – and the Republic of India signed a comprehensive Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA). It is a USD 100 bn Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the four non-European Union nations under which India will lift most import tariffs on industrial products from these countries in return for the investment over 15 years. The investments will be done across a range of Indian sectors, including pharmaceuticals, machinery and manufacturing. Detailed Report Ms. Anandita Bhada, in her opening remarks provided an overview of India’s recent trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). She noted that the negotiations between EFTA and India started in 2008 and the agreement was signed in March 2024. However, the deal is still to be ratified by the countries. She also mentioned the India-EU FTA, which is still under negotiation. In terms of collaboration on import and export of goods, EU is India’s second largest partner whereas India is EU’s tenth largest partner. Over the years, this partnership has seen several rounds of negotiations, however, there still remain disagreements regarding the technical barriers to trade, imports and pharmaceuticals. With regard to the India-UK FTA, Ms. Bhada noted that some developments could happen before January 2025, as it is said to be in its last stage. Dr. Swasti Rao commenced her presentation by highlighting a list of 10 commandments for Free Trade Agreements (FTA) to conduct trade negotiations as given by John Clarke, EU’s former trade negotiator. Her presentation was divided into the India-EU FTA which is under negotiation, India-UK FTA, which is also under negotiation, and recently signed Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) which is India’s trade deal with the EFTA, showcasing its strategic importance which is being viewed as a success. Dr. Rao emphasised that the EU, the United States of America (US), the UK are one of the largest sources of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India. She also pointed out that India has not been able to utilise the full potential of China +1 diversification, as most of the diversified investments from Europe are going to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh. According to Dr. Rao, one of the reasons for this is India’s reluctance to agree on bilateral investment guarantees that the investor countries insist on. India prefers the multilateral approach towards investment through the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, whereas the western countries stress more on bilateral investment guarantees which are more case-specific and country-specific. In case of the UK or the EU, one could see that enhancing trade ties and bilateral investments with India are considered a part of their larger foreign policy objectives like friendshoring. Dr. Rao noted that when it comes to dispute settlements as well, India prefers the WTO framework whereas the western countries prefer bilateral arrangements. She also noted that traditionally India has had high tariff barriers and a protectionist approach to safeguard its small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from foreign competition. She pointed that the Indian Government prefers to have a sector-by-sector approach for analysing the pros and cons in reduction of tariffs in sensitive areas. She highlighted that the idea of ‘Make in India’ is to first boost the manufacturing in India and then merge it with the global supply chains. Dr. Rao further stated that when the current government came to power in 2014, it had suspended all FTAs and scrapped the Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), as India’s exports had not increased much in the past decade. She illustrated that most FTAs, like the ones with the Southeast Asian partners, were not technically advantageous to India as they did not provide India with significant export surplus. Thus, the government launched an FTA Review in 2019. This review delved into the details of India’s low FTA utilisation, Respective Comparative Advantage, non-tariff barrier issues and the solutions to them. The Review addressed the challenge of India incurring trade deficit despite the FTAs. After 2019, the government’s approach to FTAs has been to rectify the export deficit which has been on a rise. Dr. Rao referred to the gradual increase in trade deficit from 2019 until 2023 where the top two deficits are recorded with China (approximately USD 100 bn) and Russia (USD 35 bn) due to India’s oil purchases. In 2021-22 India re-launched its FTA negotiations. These have been referred to as the ‘New Age FTAs’ as there is a tangible push towards finalising FTAs with western countries (UK, EU, EFTA), UAE and with the African partners. The post-COVID learning here is to actively build resilience of supply chains and overall economic security instead of merely trade. The government has been trying to link the FDI to production linked incentive schemes. There has been increased focus on natural trading partners (UAE, UK, Australia) with whom not only has the trade been in export surplus but there is also presence of resilient supply chains. The New Age FTAs have also focused on the service sector as compared to the old ones which were more focused on goods. While India’s overall trade in goods and services has increased manifold, the factor of mobility remains a hurdle in the FTAs with UK and EU, as India would like to have more mobility and countries such as the UK, are stringent about it. Further, the New Age FTAs are focused on improving the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) by lowering it from 13-14 per cent of GDP to 10 per cent under the National Logistics Policy. Dr. Rao highlighted that the India-UK FTA, which is still under negotiation, has 26 chapters. So far, there has been progress made on 24 chapters. Despite the bilateral trade in goods and services reaching USD 38 bn in 2023, tariff barriers remain one of the main concerns apart from mobility. The average tariff on exports from India is 4.2 per cent but on imports from the UK is 14.6 per cent. An example mentioned was the UK wanting India to reduce taxes on the electric vehicles (EV). One of the important takeaways according to Dr. Rao is that, the likely change in the UK to a labour government might lead to more flexible rules on mobility and visas. Coming to India’s FTA negotiations with the EU and the EFTA countries in Europe, Dr. Rao emphasised that the EU is a customs union and has a single market whereas the EFTA countries are not a customs union. When it comes to FTAs with EFTA countries, India has a separate arrangement for all the four nations. It is different in the case of the EU, which operates as a single economic bloc. The agreements between India and the EU were suspended in 2013 and then re-launched in 2021. Upon the re-launch, the FTA was broken down into three separate negotiations – free trade agreement in goods and services, Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) and a treaty on geographical indicators. Dr. Rao stated that one of the problems with the EU is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the bloc’s stringent sustainability agenda, which is creating issues in their domestic markets as well. As an example, she mentioned the import of Ukrainian grains that are causing problems in Poland and Czech Republic due to the EU’s stringent rules for its own member states as compared to its liberal rules for Ukraine. The CBAM provisions are mentioned in the European Green Deal, and the EU wants all its FTAs to have this provision. This would create further problems for international trade agreements as CBAM would make it very expensive to export products with a high carbon footprint like steel or aluminium. Regarding dispute settlement, Dr. Rao pointed out that the EU has proposed setting up an independent investment court system as a part of the dispute settlement mechanism under the investment protection act, which is not confined to the WTO. India on the other hand, prefers the WTO framework. The India-EU FTA is at the second stage of negotiations and has a long way to go. However, according to her, until the issues surrounding CBAM, the BITs and domestic hurdles are not addressed, the FTA might not reach an agreement. Reflecting on the EFTA FTA, Dr. Rao stated that it is an exceptional agreement. The USD 100 bn investment commitment mentioned in the agreement is not legally binding but is an explicit obligation on the EFTA countries to encourage their private players to invest in India over the next 15 years. Under this FTA, India has opened its markets but not its sensitive sectors. Dr. Rao also pointed out that since economic relations among these countries and blocs are excellent, TEPA could act as a catalyst for the UK, the EU and other FTAs and pave the way forward. TEPA is a win-win situation, simply because India has given the EFTA member states access to its markets in lieu of the USD 100 bn investment promise. Additionally, what makes it more exceptional is that if the investment promises are not adhered to, both parties can review the situation and withdraw trade concessions. Lastly, Dr. Rao emphasised that all the FTAs are different and there cannot be one standard rule for all. Thus, countries need to negotiate keeping in mind the differences in situations. Q & A Session Gp Capt (Dr.) RK Narang (Retd.), enquired about the lost opportunities in FDIs for technology-oriented collaboration and trade imbalance with European countries like France. He also enquired about the service sector focused versus manufacturing sector focused approaches of Europe.Dr. Gulbin Sultana, inquired about specific Indian sectors which could benefit from the EFTA FTA and the impact of India’s exports to the EFTA nations. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, questioned about Europe’s approach to negotiating FTAs considering the current global geopolitical developments. Dr. Ashok Behuria, stressed on the protectionist approach of developing countries, the removal of tariff barriers on imports and its impact on domestic industries. He also inquired about the EU and the UK FTA negotiations with China as compared to those with India. Dr. Anand Kumar, commented on increased imports from ASEAN as compared to India’s exports to the bloc. He also inquired about the type of investments that countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh are receiving. Dr. Rajiv Nayan, observed that in a globalized world all countries (even the West) are protectionist in nature and try to safeguard their interests. Dr. Swasti Rao responded to all the comments, questions and observations. She highlighted how FTAs help in facilitating trade between countries by increasing imports and exports. She concluded by stating that the EU FTA would not go forward in its current form as the CBAM provision seems completely against Indian economic interests. Thus, the EU needs to become more flexible in their sustainability agenda and the Green Deal. Report has been prepared by Ms. Anusua Ganguly, Intern, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on “Formation of Government in Pakistan: Challenges Ahead”	March 04, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Formation of Government in Pakistan: Challenges Ahead” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 04 March 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok Behuria, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive Summary Pakistan faced considerable hurdles both prior to and following its 2024 national elections. Following the elections, the formation of a government was a bit complex and tricky due to a number of reasons including a hung assembly amid allegations of electoral malpractice. This impasse prolonged political uncertainty as the parties could not agree on a power sharing formula. In the end, external pressure compelled parties to reach a consensus, underscoring the role of non-political entities in shaping political outcomes. These events highlighted the vulnerabilities of Pakistan's democratic framework and governance mechanisms. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria offered a brief overview of recent developments in government formation and political dynamics in Pakistan. He said that contrary to expectations, political engineering resulted in bringing Shebaz Sharif instead of Nawaz Sharif at the front. He also highlighted Punjab’s significant influence on electoral outcomes and its implications for political stability in Pakistan. Dr. Ashish Shukla began his presentation with Pakistan’s electoral history, marred by allegations of rigging and manipulation. He held that the December 1970 elections were the most free and fair elections in Pakistan’s political history. Speaking of the recent February 2024 election, he argued that the trend of not having a free and fair election continued amidst polarisation and volatility as the key opposition figures faced coercion and were arm-twisted to behave in a particular manner. The return of Nawaz Sharif from exile marked a significant development in domestic politics, and many questioned the way he became re-eligible to contest elections and lead his party. He also underlined the fact that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was denied its election symbol at the last moment leading to all its candidates being treated as independents. Instead of a fair contest among various political parties, the election seemed to have been a battle between PTI’s third-tier leadership and the security establishment. Dr. Shukla also noted that the electoral process lacked its usual vibrancy and enthusiasm, attributed to deliberate targeting of PTI, facilitation of Nawaz Sharif, fear of violence, and security concerns related to persisting terrorist threats. Voter turnout remained an important indicator of democratic health, reflecting the electorate's engagement in the electoral exercise. Dr. Shukla highlighted that the average voter turnout in Pakistan's last 12 General Elections, including the most recent one, has been around 48.19%. While turnout has varied over the years, with the highest recorded in 1977 and the lowest in 1997, the recent elections witnessed a voter turnout of 47.8 per cent. Further, Dr. Shukla provided an overview of each party's performance in various provinces. The election results showed PTI-independents securing 92 out of 266 available seats nationally, followed by Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) with 75 seats, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) with 54 seats, and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats. He expressed concern about the growing influence of hardliners like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in specific regions. Furthermore, he emphasised that despite attempts by the security establishment to limit PTI's impact, PTI and Imran Khan retained their significance, with their numerical vote share increasing alongside PML-N, PPP, and MQM. Dr. Shukla also highlighted the underperformance of religious parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), while new political entities like PTI-P encountered huge setbacks. Throwing light on the process of government formation in Pakistan, he noted that no single party secured majority. He assessed that despite attempts by major parties like PTI and PML-N to lead, disagreements persisted, leading to a deadlock in negotiations, particularly between PML-N and PPP. However, a stern warning from the establishment compelled them to reach an agreement, facilitating progress in government formation. Discussing the challenges before the State, Dr. Shukla said that the new government in Pakistan faces a complex array of challenges on multiple fronts. He said that the external support offered by the PPP weakens the Prime Minister's position, raising doubts about the government's stability and ability to govern effectively. Additionally, disputes over the electoral process have led to protests by the opposition, particularly the PTI, further contributing to political instability. Economic challenges, including high external debt and the need for IMF support, add to the government's woes. Furthermore, he assessed that internal security concerns are heightened by the resurgence of militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), fuelled by developments in neighbouring Afghanistan. Tensions with Afghanistan and the risk of missteps in foreign policy, particularly concerning India, pose significant threats to regional stability. Balancing relations with key players like China and the United States is essential for economic stability and security in Pakistan. Overall, he underlined that the government must navigate these challenges carefully to ensure stability and progress in the country. Questions and Comments Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA complimented Dr. Shukla's comprehensive presentation, while emphasising the importance of understanding Pakistan's internal dynamics. Following this, he posed a series of questions and observations regarding the challenges facing the new government. These queries ranged from how the government plans to navigate the complex legal environment to the evolving role of the army in Pakistan's democratic landscape. He also asked about potential initiatives the new government might undertake in its relations with India, considering the need for innovative approaches to regional security. Additionally, the scholars raised pertinent points about the challenges confronting the new government, behaviour of voters during elections, public perception about the army and Pakistan’s domestic as well as international priorities post- government formation. Dr. Ashish Shukla responded to the comments made by the Director General and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars. Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on Khalistan Movement Overseas: A Case Study of Canada	April 01, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Khalistan Movement Overseas: A Case Study of Canada” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 1 April, 2024. The session was chaired by Mr. Shantanu Sinha, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Gp. Capt. (Dr) Ajey Lele (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary India’s relationship with Canada has been impacted by the recent surge in pro-Khalistan-related activities in Canada. The Government of India needs to follow a dual approach, keeping diplomatic engagement intact while putting pressure on the Canadian Government to address India’s security concerns. Detailed Report Mr. Shantanu Sinha began the meeting by mentioning the surge in pro-Khalistan activities in recent years. He further alluded to the recent developments in North America that have impacted India’s relations with the United States and Canada. Subsequently, he invited the Speaker to make his presentation. Mr. Abhishek Verma began his presentation by noting India’s response to recent allegations made by Canada, which have been widely covered in the media and which led to diplomatic tension between the two sides. Subsequently, he classified pro-Khalistan and anti-India activities into three categories- protests, referendums and vandalism. Further, he explored the demographic dimension of the Sikh diaspora in Canada and traced the community’s migration from India. The migration of the Sikh community has taken place in four distinct phases. The first phase started in 1897 when Sikhs in the British Indian Army migrated to Canada for the coronation ceremony of Queen Victoria. The migration of Sikh soldiers (especially those stationed overseas) became more prominent after the end of First World-War. This phase of migration was driven by aspirations for a better quality of life in Canada, in addition to the adverse fiscal and economic conditions prevailing in India. The second phase of Sikh migration began during the 1950s and 1960s. In this phase, educated and trained professionals started migrating to western countries in pursuit of employment opportunities. Subsequently, the third phase commenced in the 1970s as a result of the agrarian transition brought about by the Green Revolution. The Green Revolution led to an increase in the number of large landowners, alongside a steep decline in the small and medium landholders. The semi-skilled, unemployed and educated youth from the distressed farming community started migrating overseas in search of opportunities. The fourth and the largest phase of migration took place during the phase of Punjab militancy. During this phase, Sikhs charged with terrorism, predominantly the youths, started migrating to Canada. Subsequently, Mr. Verma traced the genesis of the Khalistan movement overseas to religious mobilization in the 1950s. At the time, Sikh industrial workers in the United Kingdom started facing restrictions to profess their religion and to display their religious identity. To put forth their grievances, the Sikh community started organising themselves under Sikh Home Rule Movement led by Sardar Charan Singh Panchi. Following this, Mr. Verma elaborated on the evolution of Khalistan movement overseas from 1970s to late 1980s, including the bombing of Air India Flight 182 in 1985 that killed 329 passengers on board. With the end of militancy in Punjab in the mid-1990s, support for the Khalistan project also dwindled among the Sikh community overseas. Following the attacks on 11 September, 2001 in the United States and subsequent War on Terror, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom banned terrorist groups like Babbar Khalsa International and International Sikh Youth Federation. In the light of a major crackdown on their functioning, the pro-Khalistan elements in Western countries shifted their strategies and continued their secessionist activities through the politics of grievances and human rights. One of the prominent organisations that emerged as an international advocacy and human rights group was ‘Sikhs for Justice’. Since its inception, "Sikhs for Justice" has been engaged in frivolous anti-India activities, including filing cases against Indian leaders and celebrities in US courts as well as issuing security threats related to flight travel. Further, Mr. Verma explained the Canadian Government’s approach towards pro-Khalistan and anti-India activities in Canada. At the outset, he asserted that Canada's approach toward pro-Khalistan activities was largely influenced by three overarching factors: Cold War politics, political freedom of expression, and vote bank politics. During the Cold War, successive Canadian Governments, irrespective of parties, provided least priority to India’s sensitivities. While tolerating anti-India activities on Canadian soil, they adopted a lenient approach towards pro-Khalistan elements. However, the political dynamics changed since the end of Cold War. Although India’s relationship with the west improved, in general, the Canadian Government maintained that the right to freedom of expression was important and advocating Khalistan's homeland in Punjab was not illegal. By providing a synoptic overview of the current political dynamics in Canada, Mr. Verma concluded that vote bank politics largely influences the current Justin Trudeau Government’s attitude towards the Khalistani movement. The Government of India has responded proactively to such anti-India activities. In addition to consistently and explicitly taking up the issue of Khalistan with the Canadian Government, successive Indian Governments have also pursued extradition of Khalistani and anti-India elements. However, extradition of Khalistani terrorists has remained negligible even after the signing of an extradition treaty in 1987. Domestically, the Government of India has taken measures such as banning pro-Khalistani websites and social media platforms. Furthermore, amendments to the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of 1967 have been implemented to designate individuals as terrorists and to streamline the process of investigation and asset seizure. Questions and Comments While appreciating the Speaker’s presentation, Mr Sinha invited the Director General and Deputy Director General to make their comments. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, complimented Mr. Verma for making an informative presentation while emphasising the fact that it is not unusual for foreign communities to influence domestic policies. Further, he made observations concerning the adverse implications of migration during the Punjab militancy phase, as well as the non-secular tradition of western countries. Additionally, scholars raised pertinent points concerning the ineffectiveness of the Extradition Treaty of 1987, the nexus between Pakistan and Canada, and the role of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the Khalistan movement. Inquiries regarding recent events in Canada and the United States were also made. During the Session, both the Speaker and Moderator addressed the questions raised by the scholars. Mr. Sinha provided insights into the legal and investigation-related complexities inherent in the extradition process. He underscored that the success of an extradition treaty hinges not only on legal intricacies but also on bilateral relations between the involved countries and political will. Regarding the role of the ISI, Mr. Sinha mentioned that the territorial boundaries of the fictitious state of “Khalistan” do not include Pakistani territories which have Sikh history, for example, Nankana Sahib, the birthplace of the first Sikh Guru, Guru Nanak Dev. This absence within the purported territorial extent of "Khalistan" was highlighted by Mr. Sinha as indicative of the ISI's involvement. Report prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on Understanding China and Pakistan’s UAV Capabilities	March 18, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on “Understanding China and Pakistan ’s UAV Capabilities” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 March 2024. The session was moderated by Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive Summary The presentation provided a comprehensive overview of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) programs of both China and Pakistan, spanning from their inception to their current known status. It underscored Pakistan’s collaboration with China and Turkey in advancing this technology and its implications for India.It also delved into questions such as why China is emerging as a UAV power and also contemplated on India ’s UAV projects. Detailed Report Col. Rajneesh Singh, in his opening remarks, emphasised that the concept of UAVs is not new and has existed for a considerable period. He noted historical instances such as the use of drones for target practices during World War II and unmanned helicopters during the Cold War. Furthermore, he highlighted the democratization of drone development, previously dominated by the US and Israel, which has now become widespread and is operationalised in various conflicts globally. Drones are also increasingly being used by non-state actors for various purposes. Gp. Capt. Narang shared a brief anecdote of how he was introduced to Pakistan's UAV development programme in 2015 and his follow up research on evolution of Pakistan’s UAV industry from late 1990s. Regarding China, he discussed the role of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) that was established in 1951 as the Bureau of Aviation Industry and renamed AVIC in 2006. Other notable institutions in China ’s UAV landscape include Guizhou Aviation Industry Import/Export Corp (GZAIEC), Xi'an ASN Technology Group Co. Ltd., China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC). China’s drone program commenced with the reverse engineering of Russian La-70 target drone that was undertaken at Weapons Test and Training Base in early 1960s by a team led by Gen. Zhao Xu of Peoples’ Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)’. The Cai Hong-3 (CH-3), an armed UAV manufactured by CASC, was initially showcased in 2008. Subsequently, the CH-4 took its maiden flight in 2011. Notably, the CH-5 (MQ-9 Reaper Class) having a payload capacity of 1200 kilograms made its first flight in 2017. WJ-600, a jet-powered UAV manufactured by CASIC, was first displayed at an airshow in 2010. Gp. Capt. Narang further elucidated how China ’s UAV R&D followed a trajectory marked by setbacks and extended development timelines. He also emphasized the significant role played by research universities in China, such as Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics (NUAA), Shenyang Aerospace University (SAU), and Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA). In China, several indigenous UAV programs feature locally developed engines, and there have been efforts to develop supersonic UAVs as well. China is also actively working on miniaturisation of weapons and sensors for UAVs. Furthermore, China has a UAV swarm programme, which included few world record quadcopter UAV swarm displays since 2018. China has exported UAVs to countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Notably, in March 2017, China made an investment of USD 65 billion for establishing the CH-4 UAV manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia. Turning to Pakistan, he observed that Pakistan has an established UAV development programme. Its UAV program is a collaborative endeavor involving both Public Sector Units (PSUs) and the Private Sector. The public sector entity, Global Industrial and Defense Solutions (GIDS) played a significant role in developing UAVs such as Uqab, Shahpar, and Huma. The private sector companies like East West Infinity (Pvt) Ltd. and Integrated Dynamics made significant contribution in UAV development. Integrated Dynamics, has exported small civil UAVs to Australia, Spain, South Korea, Libya, and United States border guards since 2006. Pakistan also forged partnerships with countries like Turkey and China to manufacture UAVs. Moving forward, Gp. Capt. Narang pondered why China is emerging as a UAV power. He observed that the innovation friendly structure of its military, which fosters a scholar warrior culture that supports technological development seems to be one of the major contributors to the growth if its domestic UAV industry. The other technology development friendly initiatives of the People ’s Liberation Army (PLA) include its officers pursuing advanced degrees, establishing a post-doctoral forum on defense technology and PLA personnel leading the technology development projects. He remarked that China ’s and Pakistan ’s UAV programs and collaboration between China, Turkey, and Pakistan on UAVs increases India ’s security and border management challenges. He also provided a brief overview of India's UAV programs and the challenges they encounter. He discussed challenges leading to closure of India’s UAV programs in the past and uncertainties faced by ongoing UAV development programs. Furthermore, he highlighted how the import of critical components create vulnerabilities and dependencies and how the integration of UAVs remains a challenge. Questions and Comments The talk was followed by a Q&A session. Before opening the floor for questions, Col. Singh emphasised that no technology in the world is developed without encountering failure along the way. In response to the question regarding whether Indian UAV programs feature indigenous engines, Gp. Capt. Narang stated that while India has imported engines like Rotax, it possesses the capability to develop indigenous engines. He also stressed the importance of balancing exports and imports, noting that importing numerous systems can incur significant costs. He emphasised the need for creating consciousness about the importance of Intellectual Property (IP) protection, which has been a weak area. In response to the question about the availability of counter-drone systems in India, he made special mention of contribution of iDEX in developing indigenous solutions. However, he noted that follow up on iDEX initiatives are needed to develop more capable counter drone systems to counter the threat posed by sophisticated drones, especially swarm drones He discussed limitations of Transfer of Technology (TOT) and advocated development of indigenous critical systems. He also pointed out that indigenously designed, developed and manufactured (IDDM) components are not likely to become commercially viable or cost competitive vis-a-vis global suppliers without supportive IDDM procurement policies. Indian private sector companies have predominantly focused on development of small UAVs. While responding to a question on how Pakistani and Chinese observers view Indian capabilities, he opined that Pakistani observers diligently examine India ’s UAV programmes and Chinese observers tend to downplay Indian capabilities. In his concluding remarks, he said that even though India has the ability to develop UAVs, it has struggled to transform indigenously developed UAVs into operational UAVs due to variables like delays and inconsistencies in allocation and release of funds, administrative delays, challenges in obtaining timely approvals, hesitancy in introducing course corrections etc. *Report was prepared by Mr. Rohit K. Sharma, Research Analyst, Strategic Technologies Centre, MP-IDSA.*
MP-IDSA Fellow Seminar on A Study of the Political Economic Framework of ASEAN Media and India’s Media Representation	March 15, 2024			Fellows' Seminar	An MP-IDSA Fellow Seminar presentation by Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, titled ‘A Study of the Political Economic Framework of ASEAN Media and India’s Media Representation’ was held on 15 March 2024. It was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). The External Discussants were Mr. Shashi Shekhar Vempati, former CEO of Prasar Bharati, and Professor Reena Marwah, Jesus and Mary College, Delhi University, and the Internal Discussants were Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow and Coordinator, Counter Terrorism Centre, and Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA. Executive Summary The presentation covered the major five countries of the ASEAN bloc and how their media outlets played a significant role in building perceptions across borders within a given political-economic framework. It also evaluated the prevalence of negative news narratives about India sourced from international agencies, potentially influencing decision-making processes and public opinion. The presentation underscored the indispensable role of media in shaping cross-border perceptions and advocated nuanced analysis to comprehend India's representation in Southeast Asia and its ramifications for regional geopolitics and economics. Detailed Report The Chairperson, Amb. Sujan Chinoy, introduced the Speaker and his topic of study regarding the political-economic framework of ASEAN media and India’s media representation. He emphasised that he considered the topic esoteric, but he expressed confidence that the eminent External and Internal Discussants would deconstruct the topic and requested Mr. Om Prakash Das to present his paper. The Speaker, Mr. O.P. Das, introduced his topic in two parts, which come together as the conceptual framework of the political-economics of media for the five biggest economies of ASEAN nations. The Speaker discussed India and Southeast Asia’s warm historical relations, various issues about rule-based order, China's growing presence as an expansionist power in the ASEAN region, and how India has come up with the ‘Act East Policy’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy to deal with various issues concerning ASEAN nations. The Speaker emphasised that the central premise of his research paper lies in understanding the origin and transformation of information into news and the role of information structure in shaping cross-border media representation. The presentation predominantly dealt with the five big economies of the ASEAN bloc, with five publications from five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. Before he delved into the core of the presentation, the Speaker spoke about internal sources, external sources, and other variables like sentiments, whether the news is positive, apprehensive, negative, or neutral. Then the Speaker discussed in brief, the structure and political economy of media in Indonesia and Malaysia, where media ownership is concentrated among a limited number of conglomerates. An important consideration lies in the absence of anti-monopoly laws for regulating media ownership in Malaysia. The Speaker explained how the government has control over the licensing system to ensure pro-government policies, and the political sphere has consistently emphasised the necessity of media to operate within the framework of national development, asserting the need to guide the media in fulfilling its social responsibilities. This was followed by a discussion on the media in Thailand. In Thailand, print media is essentially run by private players, but broadcast media is essentially dominated by the State. The Speaker emphasised how the constitution played a significant role in the transformation of Thai media from a government-oriented entity to a market-oriented private enterprise over a period of time. This transition has realised a shift in media ownership patterns and the dynamic interplay between media owners and political structure. The Speaker further spoke about the political-economic framework of media in Singapore, which operates within a constrained constitutional structure with the political class favouring a guided press that aligns with the government’s view. The Speaker went on to discuss the media in the Philippines, which underwent a political transformation post-1987, coming up with an ecosystem affording considerable leverage to the influential entities for fostering economic growth within the private sector. With time, political and economic ecosystems constructed a media landscape that had a good relationship between media owners and political elites. He also explained how the political structure in the Philippines has transformed into a democratic one. The Speaker the discussed the most covered topics in Indonesia’s online version of the leading newspaper, which entailed geopolitics in India, India’s external affairs, defense news, and bilateral relations between India and Indonesia. The Speaker emphasised how international news agencies had given more than 74% of the news. He mentioned a sentiment analysis, which was positive for the Jakarta Post and international news agencies. Mr. Das further discussed Malaysia’s most covered news topics, which entail India’s economy, geopolitics, and global economy. The Speaker emphasised how more than 67% of news is from different news agencies. 40.5% of the news is positive, and most of the positive news is covered by international news agencies. The Speaker discussed Thailand's most covered news, which entailed geopolitics, India’s economy, and bilateral relations, and also mentioned that more than 73% of news is covered by international news agencies. He also emphasised how negative news is dominating Thailand’s newspaper (Bangkok Post). The Speaker also discussed Singapore's most covered news, which entails geopolitics, India’s economy, domestic politics, and governance. He mentioned that in terms of sourcing, 74.4% of news is covered by international news agencies in Singapore’s ‘The Straits Times’. He also mentioned how negative sentiments are dominating in Singapore as well. He also brought up that the most positive news is being covered by international news agencies. This was followed by a focus on the Philippines most-covered news, which entailed bilateral relations and geopolitics. He also emphasised how negative sentiment is dominating and that most of the positive news is covered by internal sources. The Speaker discussed that Malaysia carries most of the news from India; and the Philippines carries the least. Data suggest that these organizations have been disseminating news narratives that are largely sourced from international news agencies, which also means the perspectives and biases inherent in these international narratives have been propagated to the local audience without significant contextualization. The Speaker emphasised how the flow of information poses a significant challenge given its role in the decision-making process, particularly in the realm of global news dissemination. The Speaker emphasised the area to keep an eye on: the influence of news narratives on policymaking. The Speaker concluded the presentation with sentiment analysis, where he also emphasised the risk of overreliance on external news sources for coverage of Indian affairs in Southeast Asian media, highlighting potential consequences for information diversity, audience comprehension, and bilateral relations. The lack of indigenous reporting capabilities results in superficial and biased coverage based on external viewpoints, potentially impacting public discourse and relationships between countries. The Chairperson, Amb. Chinoy started the discussion with a query and then opened the floor to External Discussants by introducing them to the audience. He mentioned Mr. Vempati’s immense experience in technology, media, and as CEO of Prasar Bharti, and Professor Marwah’s expertise in this area. Mr. Shashi Shekhar Vempati Mr. Vempati appreciated the Speaker for his presentation, made comments regarding the sample size being small, and appreciated the choice of subject. Mr. Vempati had a query regarding the analysis part and whether the news headlines are from editorials or other sections that are not that relevant. He also mentioned how English newspapers have a significant bias while reporting the news. He mentioned further the linkage of India’s representation with influencing policymaking, which is unclear. Amb. Chinoy appreciated Mr. Vempati’s feedback and comments on the presentation and invited Professor Reena Marwah to make her comments. Professor Reena Marwah Prof. Marwah congratulated the Speaker for undertaking a detailed study that provides the reader with immense depth of understanding considering India’s engagement with Southeast Asia. She emphasised reconsidering the focus area and how the problem statement is well defined, but in the meantime, there is an ambiguity concerning how media content originating from India reaches the populace of these countries and how media narratives portray India’s relations with the region. She discussed how ASEAN as an entity is not distinguished from Southeast Asian countries in terms of the linguistic and cultural diversity of these countries. She also emphasised how the diaspora in the ASEAN bloc was not taken into consideration as part of the study. She explained that more attention needs to be paid to the context in which the study was undertaken and to the geopolitical happenings in the last six months. She had a query regarding the source of the news: whether colonized nations had a lineage towards news sources from their colonizers. She emphasised how a greater comparative perspective is needed and that much more focus on sentimental analysis is needed as sentimental analysis is subjective. She discussed how more focus on positive news is needed. Amb. Chinoy thanked Prof. Marwah for her valuable inputs and emphasised how a similar kind of study is needed for other regions as well. Then he opened the floor for the Internal Discussants to make their comments. Dr. Adil Rasheed Dr. Adil Rashid began the discussion by appreciating the Speaker for selecting a very relevant study for his research. He said the paper is well structured and contains all the elements of research in terms of statement, data collection, and statistical data. Dr. Rashid also emphasised how ASEAN doesn’t feature much in the paper. He also had a query regarding how much public opinion and the press create public perception, which influences government policy, and why the focus has not been on socialist and one-party states, which have a significant Indian footprint. He discussed the understanding of the Myanmar press and their perception of India, which is missing in this piece. He also had a query regarding why one newspaper was picked and not more for countries like Indonesia and Singapore. He also made comments regarding qualitative aspects being missing in the analysis. Dr. Rashid had a query regarding the scale for measuring whether a story is negative or neutral. Amb. Chinoy thanked Dr. Adil Rashid for his perceptive remarks and invited Ms. Pandalai to speak. Ms. Shruti Pandalai Ms. Pandalai appreciated the Speaker for taking up such an interesting subject. She said the paper would benefit from a little bit of restructuring wherein the concept can be explained briefly and more weightage could be given to the penetration of Indian news in Southeast Asia. She explained how one can conclude by having a few variables in hand. She emphasised how one had to understand the hardware and software aspects of it. The hardware would be why you picked up the examples and papers for the discussion, and the software is regarding ownership control, advertising and sponsorship, audience perception and reception, political and diplomatic impact, regulatory environment, and cultural and linguistic factors. She emphasised how the discussion on the paper needs to be more qualitative. More focus on how a story is chosen, framed, and received is needed. She discussed how there is a need to analyse the news to understand cognitive bias. Following Ms. Shruti Pandalai’s comments, Amb. Chinoy gave his comments on how the paper needs to include not ASEAN but select Southeast Asian countries and the reason for the exclusion of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar in the paper. He also discussed how ‘The Straits Times’ and other publications in Singapore come out with microfilmed versions to archive the previous editions. Amb. Chinoy opened the floor for questions and comments from MP-IDSA scholars. Questions and Comments Dr. P.K. Singh appreciated the Speaker for coming up with an interesting topic and made suggestions like limiting the study of media sentiments and defining how many papers from each country in terms of coverage had been taken up for the study. Dr. Anand Kumar suggested that more focus should be on the boundaries and limits of the survey. Mr. Niranjan Oak had a query regarding the criteria for choosing these countries and publications. He suggested that the study of the op-eds and editorials of these publications would be more beneficial to get a clear picture in terms of sentiments. He also had a query regarding the FDI rules for conglomerates in these countries and whether Indian conglomerates have the opportunity to buy stakes in those media houses to influence opinion in those countries. The Deputy Director, Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Dr. Ajey Lele appreciated the Speaker for an interesting paper and raised a query regarding the owners of those newspapers mentioned in the study and whether there have been any political visits from India or from the countries mentioned in the study in those six months, as these things can have a significant impact. Amb. Chinoy had a query regarding the parameters of the determination of any news items as apprehensive. Gp. Capt. R.K. Narang raised a query regarding All India Radio’s [AIR] penetration in the Southeast Asia region. All the queries were answered well by the Speaker, who also agreed to the suggestions given by External and Internal discussants. Report was prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Report on Bridging Gaps in Cybersecurity with Cyber Insurance	March 11, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) made a presentation on “Bridging Gaps in Cybersecurity with Cyber Insurance” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 11th March 2024. Lt. Col. Akshat Upadhyay, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Other scholars of MP-IDSA attended the session. Executive Summary The presentation summarised the significance of cyber insurance in securing cyberspace, predominantly enterprises and organizations. The presentation also elaborated on the scope of cyber insurance, India’s cyber insurance landscape, the potential impact of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023 on cyber insurance uptake, and the challenges with respect to insurance industry. It also covered the significance of cyber insurance for the prevention and mitigation of cyber risks. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Lt. Col. Akshat Upadhyay asked the speaker to differentiate between cyber theft and cyber threats and to comment on an incident relating to Chinese hacker company I-Soon. The speaker began the discussion by introducing the topic to the audience and the rationale behind selecting the theme. He acknowledged that the book “Rethinking Risk in the Age of Ransomware, Computer Fraud, Data Breach, and Cyberattacks” introduced him to the concept of cyber insurance and its vital role in regulating the cybersecurity preparedness of organizations. Following this, he discussed the scope of the study and offered a few caveats before delving into the core of the topic. The speaker mentioned how, besides the direct cost of a cyberattack, there are also hidden costs to reputation, future contracts, and relationship with the customers. As reported, IP theft remains one of the prominent reasons behind cyberattacks against companies. Following an attack, the companies also incur financial loss due to penalties levied on them by regulators. Healthcare remains the sector most affected in terms of data breach cost, followed by the financial sector and pharmaceutical sector. The situation following a cyberattack is fraught with challenges as the average data breach lifecycle is 277 days, meaning the more the number of days, the higher the cost to the victim. Furthermore, he discussed what cyber insurance is, which is essentially a risk transfer mechanism that supports and protects businesses and individuals from financial repercussions following a cyber incident. Moving ahead, Mr. Sharma also discussed the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India’s (IRDAI) definition of cyber insurance, emphasising the adoption of preventive measures to improve the cybersecurity posture of an organization. Mr. Sharma also briefly elaborated on the stakeholders that constitute the cyber insurance ecosystem and the significant role played by these entities. The speaker also underlined how insurance enables risk sharing with an organization against the inevitable cyber incidents. He also underscored the systemic nature of cyber risk, which is directly correlated to a company's increasing dependence on Software-as-a-service (SaaS). The speaker highlighted the importance of applicable insurance covers for managing cyber risk, which encompasses defense costs arising from privacy breaches, expenses for hiring lawyers to represent an organization against lawsuits, regulatory costs, and fines, as well as the response costs associated with notifying affected individuals. Further, the speaker elaborated on the distinction between first-party coverage and third-party liability coverage. First-party coverage addresses the direct costs incurred by the company, such as cyber extortion and business interruption losses. On the other hand, third-party coverage involves expenses paid to the aggrieved third parties or the liability arising out of regulatory penalties. The speaker also addressed other types of services offered by the insurers, including the incident response team (IRT). The technical IRT provides access to dedicated technical personnel experienced in managing cyber incidents. Legal IRT assists in notifying affected customers or individuals during the initial phase of the breach, and public relations IRT helps in mitigating reputational damage and developing a long-term recovery plan. The speaker also highlighted how the need for cyber insurance is felt more in small and medium enterprises because of the less sophisticated IT infrastructure. He also discussed the role of the chief information security officer (CISO) within an organization’s decision-making. Continuing further, he delved into the underwriting methodology employed by the insurers to determine premiums and maximum coverage. These assessments and pricing strategies rely on data-driven approaches drawn from information collected by insurers through questionnaires, surveys, and various other forms of risk assessments. This approach allows insurers to provide monetary incentives to insured entities by setting premiums and coverage levels based on factors such as cybersecurity preparedness, risk mitigation strategies, and the presence of an in-house cybersecurity team. He briefly discussed about the IRDAI’s working group terms of reference of the committee. He also elaborated on how cyber insurance cover can help with regulatory compliance associated with the Digital Personal Data Protection Act (DPDP) 2023. Questions and Comments The presentation was followed by a Q&A session. Col. Vivek Chadda (Retd.) raised queries regarding possibility of cooperation between private cyber security vendors and government agencies, and also regarding potential misuse of data by major companies. Mr. Sharma responded by talking about the Digital Personal Data Protection Act and sectoral regulators like RBI, which for instance has come up a with security framework for the banking system. He also elaborated on the role of the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) that acts as an early warning system for cyber threats and attacks in India. Dr. Anand Kumar raised a query regarding cyber insurance providers in India and inquired whether cyber insurance extends coverage to the impact of armed conflict on physical infrastructure. *Report was prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.*
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Myanmar at Crossroads: Three Years of Coup and Civil War	February 26, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Myanmar at Crossroads: Three Years of Coup and Civil War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 February 2024. The session was moderated by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive Summary As the junta regime completes three years in power since the 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar finds itself embroiled in an increasingly destructive civil war. Although armed resistance has taken shape over the years, the country has experienced a significant surge in violence since October 2023. An unprecedented level of strategic coordination between several armed groups has won the rebels 35 towns since the launch of Operation 1027. The position of the junta becomes increasingly tenuous as the Myanmar military incurs loss of troops and territories. The enforcement of the People’s Military Service Law has led to further chaos among the general populace. Large-scale displacement and pervasive violence have precipitated a humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. Influx of civilians and defectors across the porous India-Myanmar border has necessitated a discussion on the future of the Free Movement Regime. Detailed Report The session commenced with opening remarks by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.). Cmde. Singh provided an overview of the current crisis in Myanmar. Myanmar has been in a state of civil war since the overthrow of the civilian government by the Tatmadaw in 2021. Cmde. Abhay acknowledged 27 October 2023 as an inflection point in the democratic struggle of Myanmar. He observed that while the periphery of Myanmar has always been unstable, the core Bamar region is also beginning to see violence. The spread of violence across large swathes of the country has caused massive loss of human lives on both sides of the conflict. Mr. Om Prakash Das commenced his presentation with a couple of maps aimed at geographically locating Myanmar within the broader region, as well as visualising the 7 politico-administrative divisions and the ethnic composition of the country. Among the 8 major ethnic groups of Myanmar, Bamar are the largest and most dominant ethnolinguistic community. A map visualising the spread of conflict across the country was also presented. The complex nature of territorial control and integrity in Myanmar is demonstrated by the fact that 40-50 percent of the country is currently controlled by various ethnic communities. Having rejected the legitimacy of National League for Democracy’s victory in the 2020 general elections, the Burmese military launched a coup d'état less than three months later. The military takeover has since been met with widespread civilian and armed resistance, as well as international condemnation. An estimated 6000 civilian deaths have occurred within the initial 20 months of the coup. Latest reports indicate the detention of more than 26,000 Burmese nationals as political prisoners since the military coup. Burmese resistance at the highest level has taken an organised political form through the establishment of the National Unity Government- Myanmar’s government in exile. The NUG coordinates with the People’s Defence Forces (PDF)- an umbrella term for the various local militias that have emerged since the coup. Mr. Das noted Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in the northern Shan state, as a milestone in the anti-Tatmadaw resistance. Operation 1027 is a coordinated armed rebellion by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), comprising of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). 3BHA’s initial areas of influence were limited to Myanmar’s borders with India, China, and Bangladesh. The Arakan Army has a strong hold over the peripheral state of Rakhine. Several other Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) throughout the country have engaged the military in combat since October 2023. The Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces (KNDF) in the Kayah state, for example, launched Operation 1111 in November 2023. An unprecedented level of coordinated military strategy by the hitherto disparate factions has yielded significant victories for the rebels across two-thirds of the country. Conversely, defeats at the hands of the armed rebels have led to low morale and weakened unit cohesion among the military troops. Over 14000 soldiers of the Myanmar army have defected since the 2021 coup. 4000 soldiers have reneged since the launch of Operation 1027 alone. There also exists the case of an unfolding humanitarian crisis. The United Nations figures indicate the displacement of close to 2.6 million people within Myanmar. The civil war has also triggered the emigration of over 8 lakh Burmese nationals. Around 60,000 Burmese nationals are estimated to have taken refuge in India. The junta government is currently contending with escalating casualties and defections amidst an unpopular war, compelling it to contemplate contentious measures such as mandatory military service to address manpower shortages. However, this initiative entails significant political risks, as evidenced by incidents of backlash among young adults in response to enforced mandatory military service. In this scenario, Mr. Das states that the throne of junta is shaking, as the periphery and southern regions are virtually out of control of the military. The military strongly believes in a unique national narrative of its crucial guardian role. It employs both ideological loyalty and financial incentives to maintain the dedication of its officers. There had been no significant internal dissent that threatens the stability of Myanmar military until the 2021 coup. Mr. Das also discussed the contradictions within the anti-junta forces. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and PDFs have different visions for the future of Myanmar and could face challenges in power-sharing and moderating their respective ideological positions. After the coup, all the democratic forces came together and tried to structure their aspirations – including ethnic minorities. They published a new Federal Democracy Charter the main objective of which was the removal of the military dictatorship and abolishment of the 2008 constitution which gave the military a political role in the parliament. This charter deals with the questions about how certain issues need to be approached and highlights legal and political considerations to support interim institutions' constitution-building efforts. Reflecting on India-Myanmar relations, Mr. Das emphasised on the fact that Myanmar has been an important country for India’s Look East, Act East and Neighbourhood First policies. He highlighted that Myanmar is an important member of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, and that Myanmar is India’s gateway to South-East Asia. He highlighted India’s investments in various infrastructure projects, including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Project that provides an alternative route to the significantly important Siliguri Corridor. Due to the civil war, the area from Sittwe to Paletwa (that falls in the Rakhine state) has now been captured by the Arakan Army. And the area between Paletwa to Mizoram border falls under the Chin State, and thus the project has reached a state of stalemate. India has displayed a balanced approach towards Myanmar’s junta and to the pro-democratic movement, while officially advocating for the restoration of democracy in the country. India has also engaged with the junta, while creating a delicate balance between supporting democracy while maintaining pragmatic ties with the Junta to secure interest. Concerning China’s role in Myanmar, Mr. Das said that, the latter is important for China to improve its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and for China’s long-term Blue Ocean objective. Myanmar also serves as a trading outlet to the Indian Ocean for China’s inland province of Sichuan. The speaker concluded by saying that the probability of the junta regaining its lost territories is very low. The junta, now in a defensive position, is trying to protect the supply routes. Although international actors may push for a negotiated reset, the democratic forces have shown inclination towards negotiating with the military. Questions and Comments Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA, complimented Mr. Om Prakash Das for his presentation on a topical issue. He remarked that the international community has long had great expectations of Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi had moved the country towards greater democratic impulses, the United States wanted to normalise relations, and there existed interest in Myanmar’s economy. The air of optimism lasted five to seven years before the country descended into cyclical chaos. Amb. Chinoy identified two facets to the internal instability: The Junta’s difficulty in pacifying the periphery, and the pervasiveness of the PDFs that are engaged in action and counter-action against the junta. China has long had interests across the border. Amb. Chinoy opined that any kind of land connectivity, within the Kaladan multi modal project, is difficult to attain because of the sectional progress and changing situation on ground. He suggested that there may be merit in bypassing Myanmar through maritime routes if the land corridor is deemed infeasible in the finite future. According to Amb. Chinoy, hardening of borders in the last mile areas should be a priority. Identifying the different types of transgressions across the India-Myanmar border, he argued for centre-state government convergence on the future of the Free Movement Regime (FMR). Amb. Chinoy invited Dr. Pushpita Das to shed some more light on the FMR and the challenges of fencing the border. The MP-IDSA scholars posed a wide array of questions ranging from the cultural linkages between India and Myanmar to whether the growing unrest in Myanmar would have a bearing on separatist movements in Northeast India. Reference was made to the displacement of Rohingyas. The prospect of an outreach to the local ethnic groups, similar to the Chinese policy, was also discussed.Mr. Om Prakash Das provided insightful answers to the questions and comments raised by the Director General and the MP-IDSA scholars. Report prepared by Ms. Aditi Dhaundiyal, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on “Antarctica: Indian Endeavours in the Icy Continent”	February 19, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Commandant Manorajan Srivastava, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Antarctica: Indian Endeavours in the Icy Continent” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 19 February 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha, Senior Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive Summary India has long term geo-strategic interests in Antarctica. It has been sending scientific research expeditions continuously since 1981 and has two operational research stations, Maitri and Bharati in Antarctica. India received consultative status in 1983 by joining the Antarctica Treaty. The present scientific engagements however need to be further enhanced. Joint programs and multidisciplinary scientific studies in complex areas such as identification and study of high energy neutrinos originating within our galaxy and beyond, study of sub-glacial lakes and studies related to meteorites need to be encouraged. Exchange visits of Indian scientists to the South Pole and joint studies need to be explored. Detailed Report Dr. Uttam K. Sinha began the discussion by reflecting upon the intersection of geopolitical and geo physical aspects of international politics with regard to the relevance of Antarctica. He further explained the genesis of the word Antarctica before handing over the floor to Commandant Manoranjan Srivastava. Comdt. Srivastava began with the brief physical, geographic and climatic description of the white continent, Antarctica, also called Continent of peace and science. Antarctica, being the fifth largest continent and covering nearly 10% of earth’s land surface, is an important part of the Earth’s ecosystem. It is a reservoir of almost 90% of earth’s freshwater. The fluctuation in climatic conditions in summer and winters is important as it plays a pivotal role in deciding the atmospheric features on the earth. Explaining the physical genesis of Antarctica as a part of Gondwana land, Comdt. Srivastava went ahead to explain the genesis of human conceptualization of the continent. Ancient Greek philosophers were the first to moot the idea of Antarctica. Ant- Artikos meant ‘the land opposite to Artikos’. Captain James Cook was the first navigator to tackle the problem of Antarctica. He crossed Antarctic Circle four times between 1772-1775 which enabled him to make the claim that ‘no man will ever venture further than I have done, and the land which may lie to the south will never be explored.’ The marine wealth which he discovered made voyages imperative in the next century. Comdt. Srivastava then moved to an interesting ‘race to the pole’ debate where he covered the expeditions of Roald Amundsen and Robert Falcon Scott to Antarctica. He mentioned that the diversity of flora and fauna is quite limited in a sense that only 2% of Antarctica is free of ice. He also spoke about the effect of increased footfall of tourists on the wildlife biodiversity of Antarctica. He further explained the importance of ‘Krill’, an important link in the Antarctica food chain web. On the issue of territorial claims, he stated that there are seven nations having territorial claims in Antarctica namely, Norway, France, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. In early 20th century, Britain expanded its footprint in Antarctica in the lure of rich whaling resources. France entered the fray in 1924, followed by Norway. The dispute of territorial claims between Britain, Chile and Argentina has also been slated to reach the International Court of Justice but Argentina and Chile rejected it. The Antarctic Treaty 1959 came into force from 23 June 1961 and all the territorial claims, counter-claims and rights were put in legal cold storage. The short and crisp 14 articles of the Treaty laid to rest all contentious issues. However, challenges emerged due to the oil crisis in 1970s as well as the discovery of oil and minerals in Ross area of Antarctica. Antarctica was then hailed as the new Gulf. The Madrid Protocol of 1991, ratified in 1998 prohibits any mineral exploration from the region for next 50 years taking into consideration environmental concerns. Comdt. Srivastava then spoke about Indian endeavours in Antarctica. He stated that India’s entry into the Antarctic Treaty system was in 1983. First the Indian vessel, with 21 member scientific team, left from the shores of Goa in 1981 to reach Antarctica via Mauritius. The three Indian stations in Antarctica are Dakshin Gangotri (1983), Maitri (1988) and Bharati (2012) with Maitri and Bharati being operational as on date. The Indian Antarctic science program consists of earth sciences, biological sciences, glaciology and environmental sciences etc. Joint programs and multidisciplinary scientific studies, studies on sub-glacial lakes, studies related to meteorites however need to be encouraged further. Dr. Sinha reflected upon the significance of important personalities like Viceroy Curzon, and also about India’s early engagements in Antarctica. The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, in his remarks, complimented the clarity and comprehensiveness of the presentation. Amb Chinoy spoke about the geopolitical contestation among the original seven claimants as well as the Treaty’s mandate that explicitly prohibits any such claims. Amidst the claims and counterclaims by major powers including Russia and the United States, Amb. Chinoy asked about the chances of future friction emanating from the geopolitical contestation in the region. Amb. Chinoy further alluded to the dual use features of the Chinese programs in Antarctica. He also asked about the issue of IUU fishing in the Antarctic waters, and its implications. Comdt. Srivastava while highlighting the prospects of friction in the future with respect to potential claims and counter claims, reflected that the claims and counter claims of the parties have not vanished but are rather put into cold storage till 2048. The increasing demand for minerals, gas and oil may mount pressure on Antarctica and the Antarctic Treaty in future. However, any such endeavors will need careful examination as it will do potential damage to the pristine environment and fragile ecosystem of Antarctica. He alluded to Research stations of Russia, Australia and China and various media reports on recent activities. He applauded the Antarctica Treaty system for its efforts to keep the region de-militarized and de-nuclearized. He also emphasized India’s recent endeavours such as support for protecting the Antarctic environment and co-sponsoring European Union’s proposal for designating East Antarctica and the Weddell Sea as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Indian Antarctic Act 2022 which extends the jurisdiction of Indian courts to Antarctica. Report prepared by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh	February 12, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre delivered a presentation on “Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh” in the weekly Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 February 2024. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre. Scholars of the Institute attended the event. Executive Summary The 12th General Parliamentary Election was held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024. The Awami League has won elections consecutively for the fourth time since 2008 by winning 222 seats in the National Assembly. The current opposition party, the Jatiya Party managed to secure 11 seats. The main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the elections. The BNP has taken a position that there cannot be free and fair election under the incumbent Election Commission of Bangladesh. In this election, voter turnout was about 40 per cent which was considerably low compared to the past elections. Detailed Report In her opening remarks, Dr. Gulbin Sultana offered a brief overview of Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections and politics of Bangladesh. Dr. Smruti Pattanaik started the presentation by elaborating the facts and figures of the 12th Parliamentary Election and opposition politics. She said that the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina has won the elections consecutively for the fourth time and out of 300 seats they won 222 seats in this election. 28 registered political parties participated in this election, and nearly 2000 candidates contested. Out of 437 independent candidates 382 were from Awami League, and many would believe that they were propped up as dummy candidates to give a semblance of competition. BNP boycotted this election by saying that free and fair election was not possible under the present Election Commission. In 2018, the BNP had contested the election and managed to win only 7 seats. The BNP put forward two preconditions for its participation - resignation of Sheikh Hasina and establishment of a caretaker government. Further, Dr. Pattanaik said that the two principal political parties, Awami League and BNP, had equal vote share in the past and in Bangladesh, all anti-Awami League forces veer towards the BNP as an alternative. The BNP depended on the Western countries to pressurise the Awami League. It did not have cadres motivated enough to engage in street fights with the ruling party cadres and therefore, the BNP’s stance that it would not allow the election to happen remained merely on paper. After the rally on 28th November 2023 and subsequent violence many of the top BNP leaders were arrested and many went into hiding. BNP cadres were demoralised as there was no one to lead them from the front. BNP did not make any attempt to engage with India as they had done prior to 2018 elections, according to Ms. Pattanaik. The Jamaat-e-Islami, an influential religious party in Bangladesh, also decided not to participate in this election. It had participated in the 2018 election as part of the broader alliance of opposition led by the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami has been deregistered as a party in Bangladesh because its constitution militates against the Constitution of the country which is secular. However, JeI is not in a hurry to capture political power as they are interested in Islamisation of the society at large. Dr. Pattanaik also discussed India's relations with Bangladesh. During the G20 summit, India facilitated the meeting between the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and President Biden. Those groups who are opposed to Hasina in Bangladesh carried out an ‘India Out’ campaign in the social media. However, this campaign did not get traction as majority of the essential goods are imported from India. She attributed the growing anti-Indianism to the prevailing perception in Bangladesh that India is responsible for Hasina’s continuation in power in Bangladesh. She also held that the ruling Awami League had empowered the paramilitary force of Bangladesh, the Ansar Bahini, giving it power to arrest and detain prior to the election. The US had imposed visa restriction on anyone – individual and entities – who were seen as obstructing free and fair election in Bangladesh. Questions and Comments After the presentation ended, the moderator opened the floor for questions and comments. There was a question about whether Bangladesh’s policies facilitated collaboration between the private industries of the two countries. There was also a question on the role of China and how the people in Bangladesh perceived its role and the relationship between the political parties and China. Another question from the floor was on how long Awami League could endure in power and if there was any possibility of Awami League toning down its anti-BNP stance. There was also a query about the people of Bangladesh’s views about the role of Japan, Russia, US and South Korea. Dr. Pattanaik responded to the comments and questions raised by the scholars of MP-IDSA. Report prepared by Mr. Shailendra, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Gaza War: The Risk of Regional Escalation	January 08, 2024			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Gaza War: The Risk of Regional Escalation” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 8 January 2024. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive Summary The Gaza War which has completed three months has no end in sight with the Israeli endgame not being clear to the other state and non-state actors. Israel has vowed to continue its offensive on Gaza until it achieves its three main objectives of completely dismantling Hamas, rescuing the hostages and creating deterrence. However, the conflict has spread into the region with other players such as the Hezbollah of Lebanon and Houthis of Yemen, both backed by Iran fighting against Israel. This has escalated the fear of the war spreading into the entire region which may see direct or indirect intervention by the US. The entire West Asian region is once again witnessing turmoil with no easy solutions in sight. Detailed Report Dr. Saraswat set the framework for the discussion by stating that the Israel-Hamas War has rapidly escalated across the region with external actors such as the Hezbollah playing an active role. She noted that Iran insisted that the Hamas attacks were entirely Palestinian actions but Iran-backed forces, especially Hezbollah, have opened new fronts against Israel. According to Dr. Saraswat, the escalation has been controlled as none of the actors want to fight a full-fledged war but there always remains the possibility of miscalculation and further escalation. She then spoke about the op-ed written by former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who suggested that Israel should directly take on Iran instead of the smaller regional non-state actors and spoke of a new Cold War between Iran and its proxies being referred to as the ‘evil empire’ and Israel and its allies as comprising the ‘democratic camp’ . She briefly mentioned the twin blasts by ISIS in Kerman. Dr. Saraswat pointed out how Israel is emboldened by regional circumstances, given it has not faced any concerted pushback from the Arab countries. She mentioned that the Israeli endgame does not appear very clear and there is a possibility of further entanglement with Iran. Dr. Adil Rasheed began his presentation with the mention of the sudden Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, which took place just a day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom-Kippur War. He says that three months into the war there is no clear indication of how it is going to play out, with no end in sight. Dr. Rashid mentioned the statement made by British journalist Julian Borger that the Middle East is moving towards a regional war since 7 October. He talked about the recent threats issued by Hezbollah, their increase in bombings, the manner in which attacks have started happening in Iran and the assassinations of leaders including the Deputy Chief of Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut. He pointed out that the region is definitely moving towards a much wider escalation with the Israel Defence Minister mentioning that Israel is fighting a seven-front war with Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. There are other less conventional fronts that Israel might have to face in the coming times like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague where it might find any ruling on accusations of Palestinian genocide problematic. Another disturbing front is that of the global jihadist forces such as Al Qaeda and ISIS issuing threats and targeting Jewish, Israeli, and even American targets. There are tensions within the Netanyahu dispensation as well. The Cabinet was recently shuffled and the Foreign Minister had to resign. Dr. Rasheed mentioned that the situation in the region three months ago, prior to the Hamas attacks was completely different. There were talks of regional integration including a possible Saudi-Israel rapprochement and economic alliances such as the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), which all went into thin air after the war started. This displayed the pace at which geopolitics changes in West Asia. Dr. Rasheed mentioned that 7 October was the bloodiest single day in modern Israeli history. Hamas launched several incursions from Gaza from land and air. Hamas militants breached high-tech border fences, disabled Israel’s robotic machine guns and penetrated deep into Israeli territories without facing much resistance. Rockets were fired into far away Israeli cities. There was large-scale massacre of civilians, women were raped and children beheaded but there was a paucity of investigations into the reports of beheadings and rapes. The Hamas attack was a 9/11 moment for Israel but it did not get as much global attention. He talked about Israel’s failure to raise the matter at the United Nations or the ICJ as Israel focused more on seeking revenge. The global audience saw Israel’s bombardment of Gaza which undermined the graveness of the Hamas attacks. Israel was unaware of the preparation and the level of sophistication achieved by Hamas in carrying out such an attack. Israeli and other global agencies were completely surprised by the sudden attacks. Hamas was never considered a well trained militia like Hezbollah and ISIS. Dr. Rasheed listed out three reasons for which Hamas undertook such a massive operation. Firstly, it was to avenge the settler actions of Israel in the West Bank. Secondly, it was also due to Israel’s alleged violations into the al-Aqsa mosque. Lastly, the normalisation in Arab-Israel ties was allegedly threatening the Palestinian cause. Hamas was looking to capture more hostages to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners. Dr. Rasheed said that even though Israel’s actions might be questioned on moral grounds, one could understand their cause of origin. Israel cannot survive in a hostile neighbourhood unless it maintains unquestionable military superiority over its adversaries at all times. It cannot be judged as per the standards of western secular democracy as it was founded to be the only safe homeland for the Jews existing within a volatile region. Thus, Israel has to create deterrence and instill fear among its adversaries. In such a situation many far right leaders made unfortunate statements which were often blown out of proportion. Dr. Rasheed noted that Israel has resorted to massive bombardment whose intensity out rivalled that of the Ukraine-Russia War, Syrian War and even the Second World War. He then detailed the 27 October ground offensive launched by Israel inside Gaza, followed by brief humanitarian pauses for supply of aid. He mentioned how the residents of northern Gaza had to migrate towards the south, and as the Israeli offensive kept moving south, some people started returning back to their homes in the north of Gaza. He spoke about how the withdrawal of the USS Gerald Ford from the region allowed Hezbollah to carry out more strikes. Dr. Rasheed ended his presentation by speaking about the possible future strategy of Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu wants to provoke Iran and the US to join the war, so that Israel gets more time to focus exclusively on driving Hamas out of Gaza. However, he also cautioned that Iran and Hezbollah would not be very keen on fighting a full-fledged war because of their domestic economic constraints. Dr. Saraswat noted that West Asia should not be seen in exceptionalist terms as prone to violence and instability. Instead sources of insecurity, such as external penetration and authoritarianism need to be part of any analysis. She noted that the lack of a solution for the Palestinian issue hinders any talk of sustainable peace in the region. She also mentioned the lack of security dialogue among regional states. Dr. Rasheed added that the Hamas attacks had put a big dent on Israeli and Western security domination and had encouraged other jihadist outfits to carry out such attacks. The floor was then opened for questions and comments. Questions and Comments A number of queries and comments were made regarding Israel’s ultimate strategy and objectives, its cartographic stability in comparison to India, the matrix of comparison of Israel’s attacks with other wars, the role of media, the stand of the Jewish diaspora, the role of the international organisations and their resolutions, and the threat posed by Hezbollah and other regional actors. Dr. Adil Rasheed responded to all the comments and questions. With regard to the international organisations, he noted that Israel does not bother much about it but it is the US under the Democrats which is worried about its image taking a hit domestically and globally. He said that apart from the influential Jewish diaspora, it is the significant Evangelical Christian population of the US which influences its policies towards Israel. He said that due to the increasing role of media, public opinion will gradually make more difference in influencing policies. On the way forward for Israel, he said that a two-state or a one-state solution may not be feasible. Israel may put in charge a non-Hamas led Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza. He also cautioned that things may even go out of control at any moment of time. He also made a brief mention of the challenges faced by Egypt due to the conflict. Report prepared by Mr. Farhan Khan, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

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