Events

Introduction

Environmental Security: New Challenges and Role of Military authored by P.K. Gautam encompassing a project fellowship at the IDSA from 2005 to 2008 was released by Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V.R. Raghavan, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, member executive council of the IDSA who also chaired the session. Officers from the Army HQ representing the Quarter Master General Branch and Territorial Army attended the function besides scholar from other think tanks, academics and IDSA members. Officers of 132 Ecological Task Force (ETF) deployed in Delhi also attended.

About the Book

Theoretical knowledge, long serving field experience in remote and ecologically fragile areas, a continuous study of environmental literature, effort to come to an understanding of environmental security by way of participation in various debates, and field work specific to study ecology, have helped shape this book. The book gives an overview of the Ecological Task Forces and institutions of the army. The Thar desert, Kumaon hills, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and the Northeast have been used as case studies. The aim of this work has been to study and assess the activities being undertaken by the military in ecological conservation. In doing so, fresh insights and perspectives are formed on issues not only of environment but also how people relate their lives to nature in a rapidly urbanizing and industrialising India. In the light of the finding of this research, policy measures on some environmental issues have been suggested, which include a new role for the military and military-to-military cooperation.

Proceedings

After a brief introduction by Director General IDSA about the author and the book, the Chairman began the session by complimenting IDSA in addressing new and emerging non-traditional security issues. Such work also placed on record the admirable work being done by the army. The chair recalled how when he was a commanding general in the 1980s in Ladakh, precipitation from snow to rain had caused havoc with local buildings, monasteries and agricultural practices. Was this change due to afforestation by the military is still an unresolved question. The present challenge in the region is water stress due to high demand for scarce potable water for the tourism industry.

Overview by Author

The author briefly explained the methods and topic of all the nine chapters. It was a cycle of experience during military service in fragile zones followed by theoretical insights with half a dozen field trips. Bursts of inspiration or spurts of vision cannot deliver the type of ecological restoration that is being undertaken by the unique ecological task forces (ETF) of the Territorial Army. In spite of the ETF and military green cantonments, environmental degradation still continues unabated. The latest report of the Indian Space Research Organisation identifies spreading desertification as a national problem. Other problems include: degradation of Himalayas, soil degradation, loss of biodiversity and wetlands, coastal and marine pollution, desertification, wasteland perception and whether to treat it as a common property resource or for farming at cost of graziers and the landless, urbanisation as more troops are recruited from growing urban centres and need to retain traditional ecological knowledge, waste stream of solid, liquid and gases and scars left due to extraction industry. A very negative picture emerges if an environmental impact assessment of India is visualised over the next 20 years. In environmental degradation we are our own enemies.

The military however is best suited at present in afforestation, and “if infantry is the queen of battle in a shooting war, the tree is the queen of battle against environmental degradation”. Future roles of ETF expanded with retiring ex-servicemen were suggested to address new tasks. The need for training on ecology, as emphasised by the Forest Commission, was highlighted including in road building in the fragile Himalayas. Policy for removing intrusive and harmful species like Congress Grass, water hyacinth, and velayti kikar and so on was emphasised.

As regards role of military, author saw more involvement in disaster relief, the need to balance live training with simulation in an era of urbanisation and scientific land management of military land.

With respect to military to military cooperation, the author highlighted issues such as study of permafrost, glaciers and water flows with China. Watershed protection of Indus basin with Pakistan to include water logging, salinisation and overcoming exaggerated fears of dams as weapons of war in spite of ENMOD treaty. With Bangladesh, the need of better understanding of forests with floods and drainage congestion, common inland water transport corridors, sea level rise and delta subsidence were identified. With Nepal an ETF for its army with former Maoists was suggested for watershed protection. Pollution response and dealing with abandoned derelict bottoms were of common concern with maritime neighbours.

In conclusion, the author stressed from the last chapter in which three classic questions of security are to be answered. Security for whom, security for what and who provides security. The book provides all answers and also:

• Suggests to think beyond GDP
• Urges that policy makers, who need evidence based research, to take into account the well established ETF model and need to grasp this resource
• Justifies the need to preserve traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of not only locals, but military personnel who may be losing it in a rapidly industrialising and urbanising India.

Areas requiring more research as given in conclusion were emphasized by the author like continuation of inner line from ecological perspective, greater understanding of pastorals, revisiting road building in Himalayas with ecological angle and being sensitive to local culture and traditions.

Panelists

Three discussants were on the panel. Brig. Hemant Kumar Singh, DDG (Territorial Army) explained the future challenge of afforestation with policy to green India by 33 per cent. He argued that only ETF can ensure survival of trees in difficult terrain and this must be factored by policy planners. He recalled that the Chinese military has taken on this complex job very systematically and much can be learnt from them.

Brig. (Retd.) Rahul Bhonsle, SM mentioned that the book read well and gave a unique perspective on the issues. In a way it is like a travelogue and reader friendly as it takes into account various theoretical literature which is India specific rather than based on work of western authors which is mostly focused on their environment and context. He cautioned that the primary task of military must be war-fighting and environmental protection should not be the primary job of the army. He felt that there is a need for rationalisation of the military’s role between traditional and non-traditional security by building capacity in civil organisations.

Wg. Cdr. Manoj Kumar, VSM, Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, argued that the book is backed up by field work. He highlighted that a sense of a lack of history prevails and we must come to grips with the past for understanding the future. An “offensive” to tackle the complex issues of environmental degradation which is a national problem is needed.

Overall the book was well received. The book will fill an important niche in this field of environmental security. Besides the defence services the book will be of use to organs of the government dealing with ecological matters, universities, institutes researching on environmental security, concerned citizens and scholars.

How to Procure the Book

The book has been published by Shipra Publications www.shiprapublications.com, Head Office : LG-18-19, Pankaj Central Market, Patparganj, I.P. Extension, Delhi-110092 ( e mail , tele 91-11- - 22235152, 22236152, 9810522367) and priced at Indian Rs 495( US $ 20).

Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh, in his paper, pointed out that the United States has been critical of the military regime in Myanmar. The US approach towards Myanmar was essentially based on a policy of sanctions and non-engagement with Myanmar. While China, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and neighbouring countries engaged with Myanmar, the United States continued to practice its policy.

Of late, there has been a shift in the American policy towards Myanmar, which is making an impact on Myanmar’s SPDC also. In the case of Myanmar, it is apparent that contrary to its practice in Southeast Asia the US is not following the ‘Security First Policy’. For this, pointed Dr. Singh, China could also be one of the important factors. However, whether the shift in US policy is significant is yet to be examined. The shift in the US policy towards Myanmar has been evident as the two parties have made several official visits to each others’ capitals. Still, the US is consistent on the point that sanctions will remain in place until Myanmar becomes a democracy.

Another contentious issue between Myanmar and the US has been Myanmar’s nuclear programme. While some scholars doubt Myanmar’s nuclear capability and its ability to make nuclear weapons, one cannot deny the fact that Russia (and possibly North Korea too) has been cooperating with Myanmar on nuclear issues. In the changed circumstances, SPDC’s objective is to integrate with the international community and to increase the level of manoeuvrability. Drug trafficking is another issue of concern for the US in light of the fact that Myanmar is the world’s second largest drug producer.

Another reason, as pointed out by Dr. Singh, is the role of the Burmese diaspora based in the US. The US- and Canada-based Burmese diapsora is playing an increasingly significant role in influencing US policy towards Myanmar. For instance, the Massachusetts-Burma Law was heavily influenced by the Burmese diaspora based in the US. What are the implications of such a change in the approach?

• The possibility of change in the Burmese Junta’s policy depends on SPDC’s ability to face the challenges, both domestic and international.
• The US so far has focused attention on just one person and just one party, which has failed to deliver positive results.

Points of Discussion:

1. Studying the US policy towards Myanmar will not help without understanding US policy towards the Southeast Asian region.
2. There is a realisation in the US that because of Myanmar its policy towards Southeast Asian region is also getting stifled.
3. The US is not able to engage Myanmar constructively because of domestic legislative constraints.
4. The shift in the US policy is a result of President Barak Obama’s attempt to reach out to recalcitrant countries. China factor is not significant since during the Bush administration nothing was done regarding Myanmar. It is to be noted that Bush administration had the policy of trying to forestall China’s rise in Asia.
5. A reference to Andrew Selth’s article on Chinese bases in Myanmar was made during the discussion on Chinese bases in Myanmar. It was said that reports on Chinese bases in Myanmar was an overreaction.

Report prepared by Rahul Mishra.

During the Cold War, there was a complete focus on the military competition because these two things projected as power and increase security of the states. Given the evolving nature of conflict however, this no longer holds true. New “soft” threats pose bigger hazards to human beings today. There has been a need to redefine classical security paradigms along the lines of new threats such as internal conflicts, money laundering, human rights, trafficking, illicit drugs trade, etc.

One of the non-traditional security threats is the menace of Narcotics Trafficking (NT) and organized transnational crime (OTC). NT today is a problem that exists at the national and at the international level. The narcotics trafficking business is the second largest industry in the world valued at approximately $500 billion in 1994 and approximately $322 billion in 2007, following the arms sales business only. Production and refining of drugs and the consumption of these drugs almost inevitably happens in two different areas, so narcotics trade is inherently suited to be a transnational crime. In some instances, narco-trafficking tends to harm the state because money laundered indirectly or directly makes its way into fuelling separatist groups, insurgents, and terrorists, thus permitting non-state actors to take on the state. Despite this, many states tend to view narcotics as a domestic or internal security matter.

India is uniquely placed in the global illicit drugs trade, sandwiched between the “Golden Triangle” of the North-East and the “Golden Crescent” of the North-West. India is also used as a transit point for drugs from South and South-East Asia onwards to Europe. The profitability of the drugs trade has been made possible by the fact that India is surrounded by weak states with endemic corruption. India’s own security has become intrinsically tied to the strength of states not only within its immediate neighborhood but also at a distance.

Presently, India is not only an exporter of locally grown and/or manufactured drugs, it is also on the receiving end and serves as a major transit hub in the global narcotics network. India’s connections with Africa, as well as Africans operating in the rest of the South Asian region, have single-handedly emerged as one of the gravest and most complex “invisible” security dilemmas. In India alone, hundreds of Africans are languishing in prisons around the country on drug related offenses. An average of one ton of heroine alone is seized every year all over India. Pockets of African communities in Goa, Rajasthan and the South often use tourists for “quick trades” or as carriers for transporting drugs to foreign destinations.

There are three types of players involved in NT– “drug barons”, “strikers” and “couriers”. A drug baron is usually someone who has risen to significance over time and due to the extent of their involvement. The narcotics trafficking menace, and its associated destabilizing effects, impacts all levels of society – locally, nationally and internationally. India today has the highest rate of opiate users in the South Asian region of approximately 3.2 million. In a national survey conducted in 2001-2002 by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment it was estimated that about 73.2 million people were users of alcohol and drugs. Narcotics addiction among the Indian populace has increased hand in hand with the spread of diseases. Use of synthetic drugs and intravenous drug use, especially in the North-East states, has led to the spread of HIV/AIDS among drug users, introducing a newer grave element to the crisis. Narco-Trafficking has resulted in human security and economic security impacts in India. While legislation under the NDPS Act remains strict, it does not include the socio-cultural uses of drugs in the Indian context.

Points in the Discussion:

• Need to study the involvement of African countries in NT because not all African countries are involved in it.
• African governments do not intervene to control the traffickers particularly in the case of Somalia, and the percentage of drugs smugglers has increased today.
• The Role of International Agencies such as the IMF to control the narcotics trade should be discussed in detail.
• Need to analyze the agencies that provide support to drug traffickers.
• Need to focus on why Nigeria became the hub of NT, other countries like Ghana also became the hub but Nigeria is the most populous country in the region, so its involvement is greater than others.
• How has globalization created new forms of socialization to control the consumption of drugs?
• Why Nigeria become the hub for the narcotics trade?

Prepared by M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Chairperson: I. P. Khosla
Discussants: Ravi Sawhney and Srinath Raghavan

Dr. Shanthie D’Souza’s presentation noted that the Obama administration’s Af-Pak strategy has brought the importance of the region to the forefront as a “hub of terror”. The author notes that US policy in Afghanistan has had its direct ramifications on India. The US withdrawal which is expected to lead to a deterioration of security and conflict will spill over into India. It will compel India to make tough policy choices. While noting that debates on post- US exit strategies are gaining momentum in India, Shanthie suggests that it would be timely to deliberate on available options in case of the US withdrawal.

While attempting to interpret the Af-Pak strategy, the author points out that it appears to be a ‘containment strategy’ aimed at containing the conflict at four levels- Afghanistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and the un-stated goal of improving Indo-Pak relations. Shanthie points out that there is little evidence of change from the previous administration’s short term counter terrorism policy of pursuing a political strategy of supporting institutions and programmes.

Shanthie described the problem areas of the strategy where she notes that analysts in the region have viewed the Af-Pak strategy as a ‘reductionist’ strategy and a prelude to a US exit from Afghanistan. President Obama’s December 1, 2009 speech only reconfirmed such apprehensions.

There are seven problem areas. 1. Draw down of forces; By linking additional troop deployments to a timetable for the drawdown of forces and narrowly defined goals. However, the strategy misses out on the core essentials of COIN campaigns which hinges on time, long term commitment, institution building and a larger political strategy. Moreover, by announcing the exit, it runs the danger of working to the advantage of the insurgents and their sponsors who will ‘wait for their time’. 2.Troops surge- Increase in troops numbers; While an increase in troops numbers for a ‘population centric’ policy is an essential step forward, without clear Rules of Engagement (RoE) in dealing with the tribes, especially the Pashtuns in South and East Afghanistan, it could result in further alienation of the people. 3. Civilian Surge- Problem of Unity of Effort- The present strategy has focused on the civic component or the ‘civilian surge’. But the need is not to send more American experts but to build local Afghan capacities in better governance and aid delivery mechanisms. 4. Building Afghan National Security institutions in a limited time frame- A major problem in outlining a time table for downsizing troops hinges on the need for a phased transition to Afghan national security forces, capable of independent action, to take over from the US forces in 18 months. There is also a problem of mentoring and funding such huge projects. 5. Transferring authority to credible Afghan government- A credibly elected Afghan president and his capacity to extend his writ beyond Kabul are critical to an eventual US exit plan. The shortcomings of the electoral process, redressal mechanisms and re-election procedures have highlighted the problems associated with the lack of political sector reforms. 6. Issues of sanctuaries and safe havens- The author points out that in the present scenario, increased dependence on the Pakistan army and without addressing the issue of ‘sanctuaries’, selected targeting of the Pakistani Taliban will not significantly dent the Afghan Taliban capability in the long term. 7. Sources of funding of insurgency- One of the major short comings of the present strategy is the lack of attention paid to the sources of funding for the insurgency. After this, the paper deals with the regional responses regarding American intentions in Afghanistan.

In the next section, Shanthie discusses India-Afghan relations. While highlighting the historical developments, she mentions that India’s relations with Afghanistan have been shaped by shared history, geography, culture and economy. On post 9/11 Afghanistan, India took an active role as an ‘ideational power’ by adopting a soft approach aimed at long term stabilization, institution building and augmenting economic growth in Afghanistan; integrating Afghanistan in the South Asian framework and reviving the role of Afghanistan as a ‘land bridge’ connecting South Asia with Central Asia. India is the sixth largest bilateral aid donor country, pledging 1.2 billion dollars and invested in diverse areas such as infrastructure, communications, education, healthcare, social welfare, training of officials, institution building etc.

While describing the challenges to India’s aid policy in Afghanistan, Shanthie points out that India needs to accept responsibilities and risks that come with that stature. The growing bonhomie between India and Afghanistan, coupled with the increased presence of India’s development projects in Afghanistan, remains the target of the Taliban-led insurgency. Also geopolitical rivalry continues to shape Pakistan’s response to the increasing bonhomie between India and Afghanistan. The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan has serious consequences for India’s security interests.

Shanthie has generated three plausible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan. Scenario 1- US withdrawal or draw down of forces- Return of the Taliban; The author points out that in case of a complete US withdrawal, the probability of the return of the Taliban is not far fetched, thereby condemning Afghanistan to what US analysts as the worst case scenario. This would also lead to an emboldening of the Al Qaeda, instability spreading to Pakistan and Central Asia, thus reducing the region to become a base for Al Qaeda operations. Scenario 2- US limited engagement-‘proxy war’; The most probable scenario beyond 2011 is the reduced US presence in Afghanistan with troops limited to protecting key cities, a shift from overstretched counterinsurgency operations to internal defence. This would allow Pakistan to continue its ‘hedging’ strategy whereby it will continue supporting the Afghan Taliban to destabilise Afghanistan with the eventual goal of reinstating a pliant regime. Scenario 3- US long term commitments- Building on Afghan state capacities; According to the author, this is the best case scenario for Afghanistan, though such a state of affairs is highly unlikely given the reduced public support for the Afghan war in the United States. This would call for additional resources including troops to train and partner with Afghan forces and continuation of the institution building programmes. In this scenario, India could play a long term role in the training of the Afghan national institutions, institutional building political, and security and justice sector reforms.

In the last section, the author suggests policy options for India. According to Shanthie, India can play an active role in training and building the capacity of Afghan national security forces. India should also reestablish its support base among the Pastun tribes and invest in acquiring better human intelligence. These support groups can be cultivated as protectors of Indian aid projects by making community participation and local ownership a key plank of India’s aid policy. The author cautions that these goals should be achieved in the next 18 months.

However in the scenario of US limited engagement in Afghanistan beyond 2011, India could continue with its assistance programme in Afghanistan. Shanthie argues that in a revamped diplomatic strategy, India can work towards creation of Concert of Powers’- a regional grouping including US, Russia, EU, India, Iran, Central Asian Republics and China. India could play a lead role in carving out a greater role for the United Nations and deployment of UN forces in Afghanistan symbolizing the UN Security Council’s endorsement would not entirely be a misplaced policy option.

Shanthie concludes her presentation by suggesting that in near terms, India needs to pursue a reinvigorated Afghan policy in terms of protecting its projects and carving out a larger regional role in the stabilization of Afghanistan. India needs to consider near term and long term scenarios to rethink its political, diplomatic and military options. Given the limited time frame, before the summer 2011, India will have to make tough policy choices.

Points raised during the discussion.

• Obama administration should come out with a clear and determined Afghan policy. With frequent changes in the AF-Pak strategy, desired results can not be achieved.
• Indian policy makers will have to take bold initiatives to develop a regional mechanism to effectively deal with terror activities in the region.
• Afghan nation building is essential to effectively solve its problems. The international community should take effective steps towards this direction. India can play a lead role in this process.
• Too much reliance on Pakistan in the Afghan war is not the right approach. Regional players such as India, Iran Russia and China should be given more space in order to seek an Afghan solution.
• However a solution can only come from within Afghanistan. Global and regional players can help them achieving it.

Report prepared by Sanjeev Kumar Shrivastav, Research Assistant at the IDSA.