Events

Speaker: Dr. Andreas Schockenhoff, Member of German Bundestag (German Parliament) and Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU- parliamentary group in the German Bundestag for Foreign Affairs, Affairs of the European Union and Defence Policy.

Chair: Lt Gen (Retd.) Satish Nambiar, Distinguished Fellow, IDSA

Lt Gen (Retd.) Nambiar initiated the proceedings by highlighting the importance of the European Union (EU) in being a role model for international cooperation and management of economies and borders. At a time when Germany continues to be the mainstay of the 27 member Union, he argued that India can learn many things from it especially when India wants to play a leading role in South Asia.

Dr Andreas Schockenhoff opened his presentation by calling for India to play a more prominent role in global affairs. He emphasized that EU must harness India’s enormous global economic, political and strategic potential through improved trade, economic, political and technological cooperation. Elaborating on the lessons learnt after 2 centuries of division and 2 devastating wars in the 20th Century, Dr. Schockenhoff emphasized on the importance of European countries to strive for integration in European trans-national structures. Integration is a sign of strength and has the inherent potential to solve global crisis. Present day Europe represents 40% of global trade, 20% of global production and by the end of this century will represent less than 5% of the global population. Therefore, more political integration of Europe is a question of political and societal survival. Dr. Schockenhoff observed that the current Euro crisis is not just a currency but also a debt crisis of national budgets. Although there is a single market along with a common currency, there are also numerous fiscal and social policies and different forms of public spending. The challenge is to achieve economic and political integration in Europe since growth and fiscal consolidation are complimentary to each other.
Dr. Schockenhoff argued that questions remain over the strategic role of EU in a multipolar 21st Century and whether it will have the economic and the political leverage to play a meaningful role in global affairs. Achieving this target would involve not just political but also defence and security integration across Europe. On some of the international initiatives of the European Union, Dr. Schockenhoff highlighted its transformation partnership with Tunisia and Egypt,? which he termed more credible than the previous EU neighbourhood policy. It aims to promote rule of law, democracy and governance. Economic development is a pillar of this programme but there are stringent conditions to prevent its misuse. But the more significant question is how to deal with Islamist parties. He felt that the jury is still out on two pertinent issues: a) the degree of separation between state and religion and b) the nature of religious freedom enjoyed by the minorities. The onus is now on the ruling parties to prove that they have distanced themselves from religious dogmatism and people are free to practise other religions.

On the developments in Syria, Dr. Schockenhoff emphasized that the EU remains committed to the Syrian people’s struggle for freedom, democracy and dignity. There is a need for initiating an inclusive and transparent national transition political process. This can be achieved only if Assad steps down since he is responsible for most of the killings. In addition, the opposition groups should try to settle differences between they have. He called on Russia and China to end their support and protection of the current regime and felt that the UNSC must condemn and isolate Assad. The UNSC should also look at imposing sanctions under Chapter VII of the UN.

On the Iran-Israel conflict, Dr. Schockenhoff argued that Germany is continuing with its defence partnership of selling submarines to Israel as part of its responsibility to protect the Jewish state. The submarines are a vital part of Israel’s defence strategy though it is not known whether they are armed with nuclear weapons. However, the prevalence of nuclear bombs on board will be vital for a second strike capability essential to the country’s survival. The submarines also act as a nuclear deterrent. Dr. Schockenhoff called upon Iran to immediately meet is international nuclear obligations. He observed that there is a need to make Iran feel the impact of stringent sanctions so that effective negotiations can take place. The red line for Israel will be Iran entering its ‘immunity zone’ when the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon. That moment could come very soon.

On the question of Afghanistan, Dr. Schockenhoff emphasized that EU is committed to the completion of transition process as mentioned in the NATO Lisbon summit of 2010 and reconfirmed in the NATO summit in Chicago in 2012. The principle of ‘together in and together out’ is sacrosanct with Germany committing its troops till the end of 2014. While ISAF troops are being withdrawn, a second mandate for the withdrawal of troops will be approved. This will include separate forces for the protection of the withdrawing troops. He said that Germany is committed to the country’s long term stability and development.

On the issue of the European defence, Dr. Schockenhoff argued that Europe needs its own strong and credible defence and security policy. Given the prevailing financial crisis across the Eurozone, the ability to take effective action in the realm of security policy can be guaranteed only through closer military cooperation and integration. Germany can aim to achieve military integration and pooling of resources with other European countries over projects like joint air and coastal defence, joint training, single command and control structures and information systems. However, the Bundestag (German Parliament) must have the right of recall with reference to such decisions.

Dr. Schockenhoff concluded by highlighting the two pillars of ongoing European Reforms:

1. Greater political governance of European market and currency involving fiscal and budgetary discipline;
2. Increased military cooperation and integration of military capabilities.

Points raised during discussions:

1. There is a huge potential to develop India-Germany partnership especially in areas of education, renewable energy, technological research, innovation, space, earth observation and climate change.
2. China has not taken responsibility in promoting international stability and security but is more interested in protecting its own interests.
3. In a multipolar world order, India should not adopt a neutral position on key global issues. Taking decisions implies takings risks but it also involves shouldering responsibilities.
4. It is difficult to ensure balance between non interference and regime change from outside. The answer could be engagement. Civil wars and homicides are no longer regional but are international problems.
5. Instability in Pakistan is a more dangerous threat to international stability than the situation in Afghanistan. There is a need to make sure that disruptive elements in Pakistan are not a threat to its neighbours and the international community.

The highlight of the interaction was the general consensus amongst the scholars and the German delegation of the need for both countries to work together on a global platform to solve problems of mutual concern.

Report prepared by Rajorshi Roy, Research Assistant, IDSA.

Speaker: Dr. Carlos Duarte, Ambassador of Brazil to India August 1, 2012

Chair: Amb. R Rajagopalan (Retd.)

India’s interaction with Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, particularly with, has enhanced over the years. In order to give a better perspective on this developing relationship and to help India augment its capacities in Brazil, Mr. Carlos Duarte, Ambassador of Brazil to India delivered a talk on “India-Brazil Relations” on August 31. Ambassador R Rajagopalan chaired the proceedings.

Amb. Duarte gave the gathering an exhaustive picture of where India-Brazil ties stand today. He started off by sharing some important facts about Brazil which is the largest Latin American country and the 5th largest in the world. With a population of 190 million, it is surrounded by 10 other South American countries. Amb. Duarte pointed out that recent years have seen many positive transformations in Brazil. He singled out figures of Brazil’s solid macro-economic fundamentals in his presentation. Economic elements like consistent positive average growth rate, democratic stability, increasing rate of employment, decreasing fiscal deficit, expansion of credit, control of inflation rate targets, decreasing real interest rate, positive trade balance and important social policies, have all had a profound implication for the consolidation of the new Brazilian reality. He interspersed his presentation with charts and graphs which depicted a clear representation of these points.

He admitted that Brazil still remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. However, because of the reigning in of high inflation since the 1990s, Brazil has managed to reduce the income inequality gap. Today, 50 percent of the Brazilian population falls into the middle class category and 12 percent is below the poverty line calculated as per the Brazilian standards. 35 percent of the country is covered with primary forests and 75 percent of the domestic electricity is produced by hydropower. In terms of output, Itaipu is the largest hydropower dam in the world. In terms of the nature of Brazilian economy, Agriculture contributes 5.5 percent of GDP, almost 30 percent is industrial production and services constitute 67 percent of the GDP. Brazil received FDI inflows to the tune of $ 66.7 bn in 2011, higher than other South American country. Brazil’s important trade partners for 2011 in order of precedence were EU, China, USA and MERCOSUR countries (within MERCOSUR, Argentina constituted the largest player). Upcoming big ticket events like the Football World Cup in 2014 and the Rio de Janeiro Olympics in 2016 will contribute to further elevating Brazil’s global stature and making it a magnet for foreign investments. Brazil is part of some major regional groupings like MERCOSUR (formed in 1991), UNASUR (2008), and CELAC (2010). However, according to Amb. Duarte, regional integration in South America is still an ongoing process and there is a lot which can be done to amalgamate production chains in the region. Important international groupings of which Brazil is an integral part along with India include IBSA, BRICS, BASIC, G-20, and G-4.

As noted by Mr Duarte, Brazilian and Indian Heads of State usually meet frequently on the sidelines of many international events to cement bilateral ties. In 2011, they met four times indicating that they are coordinating with a greater intensity. In the brief time-span since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1948 till the 1990s, Brazil-India relations were relatively lacklustre, except for Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s visit to Brazil in 1968. India-Brazil relations gained momentum after Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s visit to India in 1996. This was followed by the establishment of India- Brazil Joint Commission in 2002. It was with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s visit in 2004 that India-Brazil relations received a significant fillip and in 2006, India and Brazil established a “strategic partnership”. President Dilma Rousseff has continued this crucial partnership since coming to power in 2011.

On the trade front, there has been an almost 10-fold increase over the last decade and is expected to reach $15 bn by 2015 (The current figure stands at $ 10 bn). The rise in trade figures, however, conceal some of the vulnerabilities in the economic relationship, when one notices the concentration on only few products, particularly crude oil imports from Brazil and diesel exports from India. Amb. Duarte believes that these products do not posses a value-added component and one of the challenges in the trade relationship is to introduce greater diversification. Brazil and India, he observed, share similar levels of development and therefore have many complementarities in the realm of agriculture, science, technology, education, energy, culture, environment, defence and social policy making. Active cooperation in these fields include a MoU with Brazil for cooperation in agriculture signed in 2008, an agreement between Brazilian Embrappa and Indian ICAR for executing joint agricultural research projects in dairy farming and food processing. There is an ongoing collaboration in the area of science, technology and innovation with the establishment of India-Brazil Science Council in 2005, along with academic cooperation by charting the Science without Borders programme. In the domain of energy, which forms an important component of India-Brazil relations, there is in place a Memorandum of Cooperation in fuel mixture technology signed in 2006 and Petroleum and Gas in 2008. As for the Defence Sector, there is an agreement dating back to 2003, a bilateral strategic dialogue from 2007 and an important programme wherein Indian-built Radars are installed in a Brazilian aircraft which also works as an early warning device. Amb. Duarte concluded his talk with the view that there is tremendous scope for further cooperation between the two countries which share similar political principles and viewpoints on international issues.

Points raised during discussion

• Brazil is very proud of its heritage of maintaining peaceful ties with neighbours for over a century. It is in the process of consolidating this clean record by forging greater regional integration, as manifested by multiple projects which are underway including the tapping of natural gas from Bolivia to Sao Paulo.
• Tension between the competing principles of democracy promotion and non-intervention is a difficult one to resolve. Each case of conflict-torn country should be assessed on its own individual merit, be it Libya or Paraguay. Brazil believes in resolving the conflict by following democratic principles which would entail engendering dialogue between the warring factions and causing the least possible harm to civilians.
• With regards to the impediments faced by the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America in the context of successful regional integration in the South American region, there are complexities being encountered in the execution of this initiative. However, such projects do take time to develop fully and undergo a long process of evolution.
• There were apprehensions raised about IBSA becoming a non-entity in the light of BRICS being a bigger regional organization. However, one group should not seen as challenging the other for both are essentially created for different reasons, that is BRICS for dealing with bigger international issues and IBSA for countries sharing and learning from their own developmental problems.
• India and Brazil share many affinities with regard to international issues and have established robust cooperation on issues like HIV-AIDS and climate change, little disagreements do not account for much. Therefore, the feasibility of both the countries coordinating policies and positions at the multilateral level should not be questioned.
• With respect to developing security cooperation among Latin American countries, as it is practically non-existent except for a small defence committee in UNASUR, it was noted that most of the Latin American countries have adopted a deterrent type of defence doctrine and have the shadow of one big super power looming over them, which automatically engenders cooperation amongst them. They always strive towards decreasing all tensions, which are indeed not very many.
• As for the state of people-to-people contacts between India and Brazil, there was felt a paucity of knowledge about each other since the interaction has been confined to business sectors only. However, the fact that India-CELAC relations are surging is in itself a positive sign and it was felt that this is the right time to give more density to India- Brazil relations.

(Report prepared by Sneha Bhura, Intern at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.)

Click here for event photographs [+]

Venue: Room no 205, IDSA

About the Speaker

Dr Kaiser Bengali teaches in Karachi University. He was an Advisor to the Chief Minister on Planning and Development, Government of Sindh. He is an economist and holds a Masters Degree in Economics from Boston University, USA, and a PhD in Economics from University of Karachi, Pakistan. He was also a member of National Finance Commission, National Coordinator of the Benazir Income Support Program, Managing Director of the Social Policy & Development Centre, Karachi and has taught in various Universities.

IDSA in collaboration with Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan, Mumbai hosted the third Y B Chavan Memorial Lecture, the founding President and guiding light for the Institute in its formative years, on 30 November 2012. Ambassador Kanwal Sibal delivered the lecture on “India’s Foreign Policy – Future Challenges.” The Institute was privileged on the occasion by the presence of Ambassador Leela K Ponappa as chairperson, Shri RD Pradhan and Shri Ajit Nimbalkar from the Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan.

Brief Overview

Shri Y B Chavan was born in the state of Maharashtra on March 12, 1913. He spent many years in jail as a freedom fighter and played a major role in the Quit India movement in 1942. Following India’s independence, he was appointed Parliamentary Secretary in 1946 and rose to become Chief Minister of the bi-lingual State of Bombay. In 1960, he became the first Chief Minister of the newly created state of Maharashtra. He was requested by the then Prime Minister Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru to become the Defence Minister in 1962. Subsequently, he held the offices of Union Home Minister from 1966 to 1970, Union Finance Minister from 1970 and Foreign Minister from 1974 to 1977. He was also the Chairman of the 8th Finance Commission. The Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan has given a corpus to the IDSA to hold an annual eminent persons’ lecture series In memory of Shri Y B Chavan.

Welcome Address by Dr. Arvind Gupta

Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA, acknowledged the support of the Yashwantrao Chavan Pratishthan in organising the event. He spoke about late Shri K Subrahmanyam’s admiration for Shri Y B Chavan and about the pivotal role played by the two in establishing and then mentoring IDSA through its formative years. He brought out the role played by Shri Y B Chavan by quoting Shri Subrahmanyam “if IDSA was not nursed at that time by late Shri Y B Chavan, it would have been killed at the infancy itself.” Dr Gupta also noted that 2012 marks the birth centenary of Y B Chavan and hence it is an important year in the calendar of the IDSA.

Remarks by Shri Ajit Nimbalkar

Shri Ajit Nimbalkar elaborated on the tremendous contribution of late Shri Y B Chavan to the nation in general and Maharashtra in particular while serving in various capacities both at the centre and in the state. Shri Nimbalkar expressed hope that the annual event organized by the IDSA will draw more attention at the national level and that it would be a fitting tribute to the memory of a towering figure like Y B Chavan.

Third Y B Chavan Memorial Lecture: Ambassador Kanwal Sibal

Ambassador Sibal said that identification of the problems and challenges will help India in a prescriptive analysis for the future. While giving a comprehensive account of the near and distant future challenges facing the country, he said that the biggest challenge before India was to maintain coherence and balance in its foreign policy. Shri Sibal said that national interest is a fluid concept and defining it is not easy. However, a clear and sharp understanding of our national interests is in many ways important to the formulation of a sound foreign policy and addressing various challenges facing the nation at the international level. Foreign policy challenges, according to him, largely remain the same over a period of time and India is no exception in this regard. Therefore, he concluded by saying that the future foreign policy challenges for India will remain the same albeit in a different form; protection of our independence and sovereignty, friendship with all and enmity with none and a peaceful environment in which we can economically grow and meet our internal challenges.

Click the link to see the full text of his talk.

Click link for audio of the talk

Discussion Points

The talk evinced a lot of interest and the question and answer session generated a host of points. Some salient aspects brought out are as follows: -

• India’s Neighborhood Challenges: India faces a tough neighborhood. Though, we wish for a cooperative and trouble free neighborhood, experience worldwide suggests that none of the big powers, be it USA or China or erstwhile USSR has had a trouble-free neighborhood; this situation is not unique to India alone. A matter of concern is that India’s smaller neighbours bring in external actors to balance the Indian influence.
• China: It was argued that a more democratic and globally integrated China will be easier to deal with and a guarantee for peace in the region. The US under Clinton also worked on this thesis, but to no avail. China is deeply integrated into the global economic system, but if the unfolding events of the recent past are any indication, its aggressive foreign policy posturing is not likely to change.
• Sino-US bonhomie: Though the US looks at India as a lynchpin and a major power in the region, it also sees China as an important ally in promoting peace and stability in South Asia. This double view of the US has to be taken into cognition by Indian policy-makers.
• G-2: The prospect of G-2 is questionable; there are many intertwined issues that raise questions about its existence and future possibility. Both Europe and Russia don’t look at it favourably. Its existence would also not be in India’s favour.
• Out of Area Contingency (OOAC): OOAC Operations are going to pose serious questions both within the country and outside. Given the fact that India is a rising power and OOAC is mandated by the RM’s directive, India is bound to play an important role beyond its defined boundaries. Although the international community is looking towards India to shoulder more global responsibility, the civilian leadership is yet to take a call on deploying the armed forces in certain out of area contingency operations. Moreover, there is a lack of synergy between the civilian and military leadership. Unlike the US and other democracies where the military is deeply integrated into the political decision making, the military component is largely missing from India’s decision making process. This phenomenon puts serious question marks over our ability to undertake missions far from our borders.
• Iran: India is trying to maintain an independent position despite US pressures. While maintaining our stated independent position, we are trying to persuade and convince the US that maintaining closer ties with Iran is critical to India, given our dependence on that country to meet our vital energy needs.
• Tibet: Tawang is important for India as a signal to China that Arunachal Pradesh is an inseparable and integral part of India and is not subject to bargain. India should not compromise on this issue, as any dilution in its position will compromise its national security.
• Ministry of External Affairs: The fact that the MEA is understaffed and overstretched is not new. However, if we look at the problem in a holistic fashion the problem does not seem to be as acute as it is commonly portrayed. A host of other ministries viz. the ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, the Environment ministry, Commerce ministry, the Ministry of Defence deal with our diplomatic efforts in their respective fields. This does in a way reduce the burden of the MEA. However, since the MEA is the nodal agency in foreign affairs and the complexity of issues faced and emerging are growing an increase in manpower is essential.

Observations by Ambassador Leela Ponappa

Shri Y B Chavan integrated both internal and external agenda, which is the benchmark of a successful foreign policy. The need of the hour is to rebalance our domestic and foreign policy goals. There is a limit to what a country can achieve internationally on its own and this is true for India also. For example, India can achieve very little vis-à-vis Central Asian republics as it is limited due to the geographical constraints. So we can aspire only for certain things in a given situation.

Vote of Thanks

Commander Sarabjeet Parmar thanked Ambassador Kanwal Sibal for his invaluable observations on this important subject. He extended his thanks to Shri Ajit Nimbalkar for being present on the occasion and sharing his experience about Shri Y B Chavan and IDSA. He also thanked RD Pradhan for his support and encouragement for this event. Last but not the least, he thanked Ambassador Ponappa for sparing some time out of her busy schedule to chair the event and share her incisive remarks.

Report prepared by Amit Kumar, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).