Events

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the African Studies Association of India (ASA India) organised an Africa Day Webinar on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges” on 24 May 2022 at 1530 hours IST. The welcome remarks were delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the special remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam, Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India. The introductory remarks were given by Professor Ajay Dubey. Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, chaired the panel discussion. The panelists included Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae, Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Dr. Alex Vines OBE and Ms. Ruchita Beri. The concluding remarks were delivered by Ambassador Shashank. Ms. Sindhu Dinesh proposed the vote of thanks. The webinar was attended by MP-IDSA scholars and guest attendees including African Heads of Missions in India, officials from the Ministry of Defence and members of various think tanks and universities.

Executive Summary

The webinar brought out perceptive inputs on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges”. Ambassadors, eminent scholars and experts from India and Africa served on the panel. As the African Union (AU) celebrates its 20th anniversary, its achievements in building regional consensus and efforts in transforming the continent were acknowledged. The peace and security challenges facing the African continent are diverse and complex. The AU faces several hurdles in dealing with these challenges. It must be recognised that foreign intervention is proving to be counter-productive and African countries must rely on themselves to solve the problems.

Some speakers emphasised the continent's pressing governance and security issues. Under the auspices of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have engaged in violent conflicts using a variety of non-military tools. However, rising conflicts in Africa have demonstrated that APSA has failed to fulfil its mandate after more than a decade of existence. Many speakers further emphasised the significance of "African solutions for African problems".

Another theme of the webinar was the importance of India-Africa relations and the necessity of keeping the pan-African tier of engagement. There was a strong push for South-South cooperation, particularly in areas such as clean technology, climate-resilient agriculture, and counter-terrorism cooperation. It was underscored that institutionalised mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD) were important in promoting India-Africa ties and must be regularised.

Detailed Report

Inaugural Session

The webinar began with welcome remarks by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA). At the outset, he acknowledged the distinguished speakers and guests for their presence, the collaborative partner ASA India for jointly organising the webinar and extended a warm welcome to all the participants. Sharing that MP-IDSA has been organising an Africa Day Round Table for the last six years to commemorate Africa Day, he stated these dialogues had provided well-established platforms to deliberate on India-Africa relations. He remarked that the increased high-level visits to African nations over the last eight years and the initiatives taken under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Modi were aimed at transforming India’s ties with Africa. Ambassador Chinoy shed light on the historically close ties and maritime links of India and Africa, the role of diaspora, India’s steadfast support for Africa’s liberation from colonialism and apartheid, and the mutual support between the two in their struggle to attain independence.

Stating that the theme of the webinar was timely and of great interest, he recognised the commendable achievements of the AU in resolving regional conflicts and promoting sustainable development. Mentioning the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food and energy security amidst the challenge of a pandemic, Ambassador Chinoy assessed that the three foremost important objectives for African nations will be economic recovery, healthcare and food security. Stating that security arrangements in Europe and the multilateral system had failed to deliver peace and security, he appreciated the AU’s efforts in building regional consensus.

Ambassador Chinoy underscored the importance attached to institutionalised mechanisms like IAFS and IADD in promoting India-Africa ties. Stating that India is committed to being a reliable development partner for Africa, he highlighted India’s Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme, timely medical and humanitarian assistance to African countries during the pandemic, India’s contribution to the United Nations Peacekeeping (UNPK) operations in Africa and anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and shared maritime interests in developing a blue economy. He opined that strong India-Africa ties would strengthen multipolarity and expressed optimism that the webinar discussion would help build a better future together.

Professor Ajay Dubey (Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Secretary General, ASA India) acknowledged the guests and participants on behalf of ASA India and thanked MP-IDSA for partnering with them. Underscoring that Africa is an important continent for India, he shed light on the old and diverse academic engagements in Indian universities on African studies. Stating that the AU celebrating 20 years is a culmination of the African dream of Pan-Africanism, he spoke about the initial formation of the organisation in 2002 and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) established in 1963. Remarking that peace and security were important objectives that African people have decided for themselves, Professor Dubey opined that in its approach to peace and security, the AU had learnt from organisations like South African Development Community (SADC) and others with similar objectives.

Professor Dubey assessed that the major challenges for AU in addressing peace and security include terrorism in all its forms, internal terrorism, cross-border terrorism, religious terrorism and violent extremism; democratic backsliding which is giving rise to conflicts; threats to maritime security; challenges emanating from underdevelopment which include human security and climate security issues besides the pandemic and other common problems facing the continent. He agreed with Ambassador Chinoy that models like the IAFS and IADD were important and need to be continued.

H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam (Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India) began his special remarks by thanking the webinar organisers and appreciated India’s steady commitment to developing India-Africa relations which he has witnessed during his tenure in India. He remarked that the webinar theme was timely and of critical importance to the African continent. Sharing the multifaceted peace and security challenges facing Africa that range from inter-state and intra-state political instability to foreign interventions and unemployment, he stated that the problems facing Africa were as diverse as its countries and people. He identified that there was no single or quick solution to these problems and opined that the contemporary history of Africa proves that external intervention was instead prolonging their problems. He argued that the best if not the only solution was for African countries to solve their problems themselves.

Ambassador Woldemariam shed light on several other challenges like the arbitrary boundary demarcation by the colonisers which has led to separatist movements intertwined with terrorist activities. He underscored that Africa which accounts for 41 per cent of ISIS attacks has become the main target of international terrorism. He assessed that the economic cost of terrorism which has surged to USD 171 billion could have instead been invested in the continent’s development and betterment of livelihood. Ambassador Woldemariam strongly opined that multipronged and collective efforts would help address the root causes of conflict in Africa and achieve socio-economic development. He added that strong government, sound policy, efficient institutions and corruption-free civil service were also among the many requirements along with strengthening cooperation between regional and sub-regional organisations in Africa.

Ambassador Woldemariam stated that all these efforts must be supported at the national and regional levels through institution building based on principles of partnership. Recognising AU’s efforts in transforming the continent, he argued that one of its hurdles was excessive dependence on foreign financial assistance which comes with conditions that compromise policy independence. Ambassador Woldemariam underscored that the spirit of South-South Cooperation should be bolstered to solve common problems and stated that India was at the heart of this framework. He concluded by calling for unconditional cooperation between India and Africa and expressed thanks to the Government of India for its support to African countries.

Panel Discussion

The panel discussion was chaired by Ambassador Anil Trigunayat (Former Ambassador of India to Libya and Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)). He started the discussion by stating that we frequently think of Africa as a single entity, despite the fact that this identity is fading. He continued by saying that Africa is a kaleidoscope of culture, civilization, colours, and beauty that one should see and experience.

Ambassador Trigunayat mentioned how the pandemic has affected the African continent and how India has tried its best to be a part of Africa's and AU's journey, whether it is peacekeeping, capacity building, or providing infrastructural assistance at all times. He underscored that Prime Minister Modi's event in Kampala provided a clear vision for strengthening cooperation and mutual capacities in combating terrorism and extremism across the continent.

Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae (Director General, Nigeria Institute for International Affairs, Nigeria) began by indicating that AU's principal goals have shifted from political integration to economic integration, the prosperity of African people, and the need for peace and security in the continent. In terms of addressing peace and security concerns, the first thing that has become increasingly evident is that peace and security challenges in Africa must be viewed holistically. As the world deals with the repercussions of the Ukraine crisis, it is clear that whatever occurs in one part of the world influences what happens in other areas of the world.

Professor Osaghae also briefly noted the AU's peace and security architecture's admirable achievements, particularly the actions of the "Panel of the Wise" since its inception. African peace and security architecture also envisions a strong partnership between the EU and regional organisations such as SADC in South Africa and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in West Africa, among others. It has been more challenging than ever before, but Africa today recognises that terrorism, insurgency, and human rights violations are not merely African issues, but also significant global concerns. 

In his final remarks, Professor Osaghae emphasised that Africa would do well to handle what it is capable of doing, but Africa does better when it can collaborate with global players. He added that India has been a strong supporter of Africa, and that as the AU celebrates its 20th anniversary, partners like India will provide even more motivation to move forward.

Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos (Chief Executive Officer of the South African Institute of International Affairs, South Africa) opened her presentation by expressing concern that the current geopolitical framework may exacerbate some of Africa's peace and security challenges. She explored institutional realignment, increased civil society engagement, operational efficacy, and financial independence in her speech.  The lack of good governance has limited the government's authority to function, notably in preserving peace and security, as well as fostering economic growth and wealth creation, which are required to combat poverty and foster human development in the case of many African countries. Ms. Sidiropoulos went on to argue that rather than focusing primarily on hard-core peace and security concerns, African communities, citizens, and African leaders should prioritise good governance.

Ms. Sidiropoulos concluded by referring to the Afrobarometer survey, which stated that unemployment remains one of the most pressing issues that Africans want their governments to address. As per the survey results, South Africans are dissatisfied with the government's handling of income disparities, price stability, and the economy in general. She emphasised that perceptions towards the AU are shifting, and the fundamental problem that African countries must tackle on their own is a lack of accountability in governance mechanisms.

Dr. Alex Vines OBE (Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House, UK) began on a positive note by emphasising some of the AU's recent gains in terms of peace and security. He did, however, argue that there has been a sense of urgency to reform, evaluate, and rethink as the African continent transforms. He used the example of how standby forces do not always meet the issues that continental security necessitates. The Lake Chad basin countries' Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to collaborate against Boko Haram insurgents has been plagued with crises due to varying commitment to the force, budget issues, and fragmented planning.

Dr. Vines reiterated that there have been areas of the AU vision that have been less impressive over the previous 20 years, notably on the legislative side. Traditional and technological organs have remained poor. The Pan-African Parliament and the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council are essentially advisory organisations with hardly any power. The AU's Peace and Security Council is faced with tough choices. He stated that the process of reforming the organisation, led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, had created discord among the Commission's leaders. For over five years, the procedure paralysed employees and damaged the AU Commission. In his closing remarks, he cited the Afro-barometer survey mentioned by Ms. Sidiropoulos, which stated Africans are frustrated that jobs are not being created on the continent and that 35 per cent of citizens regard the AU as completely irrelevant to their daily lives. This poses a significant challenge for the AU to become more people-centered, serving the needs of its own people.

Ms. Ruchita Beri (Senior Associate and Coordinator, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA) shared her thoughts on three themes. She began by discussing the AU's recent achievements in terms of leadership in addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic, peaceful elections, and so forth. She also considered the significant hurdles that AU continues to face, such as, rise in conflict, unconstitutional changes of government and terrorism. Recognising the challenges that post-Covid-19 peacebuilding faces, she focused on how the AU might promote complementarities at the strategic and operational levels throughout the peace–development nexus.

Ms. Beri drew attention to the growing threat of terrorism and the need for AU to work on concentrated and coordinated efforts to address the fundamental root causes of terrorism and violent extremism. She also discussed the continent's food security concerns and why the AU should prioritise agriculture and food security as the foundation for economic development and progress. She concluded her speech by bringing up India-Africa relations in the current scenario. Ms. Beri proposed the next IAFS should be held soon, in partnership with the AU. She also proposed that India invite African Union to open a mission in India. She hoped that the organisation shall redouble its efforts to confront the challenges.

During the Q/A session, the panellists discussed the rational foundation of the lived values and attitudes entrenched in African ethics by situating them within global ethics and the developing new world order, analysing their validity, and potential contributions. Prof. Osaghae believes that African values are an essential component of global values. Furthermore, global values will be meaningless if there is no African or Asian component - all of those elements work together to generate the composite known as global values.

Concluding Session

Ambassador Shashank (Former Foreign Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India) made the concluding remarks at the webinar. He advised that African countries should consider utilising India's assets to promote their own internal cyber capabilities. He also recommended that if small and medium-sized enterprises in India and Africa worked together, they might set up with an aim to give employment, inspiration, and so on to young people, similar to the Nirvana movement that began in India.  Ambassador Shashank suggested that people-to-people exchanges between India and Africa in a range of domains, including professional, legal, business, and grassroots occupations should be prioritised.

The vote of thanks was proposed by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh (Research Analyst, MP-IDSA), after which the webinar concluded.

The report was prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Bulbul Prakash, Intern, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA.

Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Europe: An Analysis” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 9 May 2022. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. 

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute participated in the meeting.

Executive Summary

On his first visit abroad after the COVIC Pandemic, Prime Minister Modi decided to travel to Europe. The trip included visits to Germany, Denmark and France at a time when a significant shift is underway in the European security paradigm. The Prime Minister’s visit can also be seen as India reciprocating recent visits from European leaders to India. The Prime Minister's visits ensured that many important agreements were signed and future cooperation was discussed.   

Detailed Report

The Monday morning meeting began with Dr. Swasti Rao giving a background description of the Prime Minister's visit to Europe which included Germany, Denmark and France. She stressed on the importance of the visit which concluded with a wide array of agreements in emerging areas of green energy cooperation. The success of the various visits were underscored with the signing of a number of agreements in important fields. She lay emphasis on the timing of the visit wherein Europe is undergoing a paradigm shift in its security architecture. She concluded her remarks by highlighting the European stance towards India which is now seen through a positive lens.  Europe which was until recently criticising India for its neutral position towards the Russia- Ukraine war, now sees India as an important friend and an important global player.

Ms Anandita Bhada, the Speaker, at the outset, focused on the timing of the visit, particularly with the crisis in Ukraine and the recent visits from various European leaders and delegations.

She highlighted that this visit was happening at a time when there is increased European interest in the Indo-Pacific. The common topics of deliberation in all three visits have been the Indo-Pacific, the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, the green initiatives due to the energy crisis and the reaching out to the Indian Diaspora within the three countries.

Germany and India have recently completed seventy years of diplomatic relations and Germany is India's largest trading partner in Europe. There are 1700 German companies active in India providing 4 lakh jobs. These companies contribute to the ‘Make in India’ initiative and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’. The large Indian Diaspora is also making strides in contributing to India's relations with Germany. This also happened to be the Prime Minister's first visit with the newly elected Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz.

The main focus of the visit was the sixth India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations. The major themes discussed included a green and sustainable future, growth and resilience and an open and peaceful Indo-Pacific. A total of nine agreements were signed between the two countries which include Indo- German Partnership on Green and Sustainable Development and Development Cooperation on Renewable Energy Partnership.

The next visit was to Denmark, with which India’s bilateral trade has increased from 2.8 billion dollars in 2016 to 5 billion dollars in 2021. Around 200 Danish firms investing in India in various areas like shipping, renewable energy and agriculture and the setup of manufacturing facilities under the ‘Make in India’ initiative; have given a boost to the relationship.

The main focus of the visit was on the three ‘T’s; trade, technology and talent. In the trade section, the Prime Minister addressed the India-Denmark Business Forum to attract more Danish investment. On technology, the focus was on ‘green technology’ which focused on the agreement of the Joint Science and Technology Committee, reached in January 2022. This agreement's main focus is on joint research on green fuels, especially hydrogen. On talent, the main focus was on the exchange of talent between the Indian Diaspora in Denmark and Danish companies in India. Denmark also assured India of its support for its bid for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent membership. India reciprocated with its assurance and support to Denmark in its quest for a non-permanent seat in the UNSC. There were nine agreements signed with Denmark which included the Launch of Energy Policy Dialogue at the Ministerial level and the Letter of Intent on Centre of Excellence in Green Shipping.

Another important part of the Denmark visit was the 2nd India- Nordic Summit. The Nordic countries only share this format with the United States apart from India. The main focus of this summit was cooperation in the field of climate change, innovation, digitalisation and green growth. The Prime Minister invited the Nordic countries to invest in the blue economy and digitalisation in India. There were also individual meetings with the various heads of states with a focus on certain issues blue economy, arctic, and information technology.

The final leg of the Prime Minister’s Europe visit was to France. The re-election of Emmanuel Macron meant a return of a continued French foreign policy including the French engagement in the Indo-Pacific. France also holds the Presidency of the European Council; therefore, Macron’s return re-enforces prior plans concerning the steering of the European Union as well. France is also an important defence ally for India with which it conducts joint defence exercises. The alliance also focuses on Indian diversification, co-designing and co-production of defence equipment.

The main theme of this meeting was the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, clean energy and sustainable development. The two nations have been Strategic Partners since 1998 and with regard to the Indo-Pacific, they are both committed to a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific region. France is looking to work with India in third countries in the Western Indian Ocean. There were also discussions on various topics ranging from space, trade, defence, green energy, cyber security and food security.

In the conclusion, the Speaker stated the need for sustained enthusiasm in Europe’s engagement with India and vice versa.  India’s defence cooperation with Europe needs to go beyond the buyer-seller relationship and aim for transfer of technology. India also needs to convey to its western partners that India’s relations with Russia are based on its national interest. The speaker ended her presentation by stating that India-Europe relations have a long way to go.  

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA stated that the United Nations Security Council's recent statements which have avoided mention of  words like ‘conflict’ and ‘invasion’ show that India’s neutral stance on the same since the beginning is finding more legitimacy at the international level. The statement is reminiscent of India's consistent stand concerning the conflict. UN’s position also sits well with the Europeans and has eased some of the pressures between India- Europe relations. He also stated that the Europeans are reaching out to India in their individual capacity as well and not limiting their outreach within the EU framework only.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA brought out India's Arctic Policy while discussing the Nordic states. He asked whether the Arctic Council figured in India’s discussion with the Nordic states.

The second question was on the Indo-Pacific and the Western Indian Ocean region. The French and European Union views are not aligned with the views of the United States and United Kingdom as is apparent from the AUKUS deal. The Speaker was asked about the evolving engagement of leading European nations towards a combined enhanced strategic engagement in the Indian Ocean Region.

Ms. Anandita Bhada, the Speaker, gave detailed and insightful replies in response to comments and questions received from the participants.

The Report was prepared by Mr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Event Report

Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Withdrawal of French Troops from Mali: Implications and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting which was held on 02 May 2022 at 10 AM in the Auditorium. The session was moderated by Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Centre Coordinator, Africa, Latin America, Caribbean, and United Nations (ALACUN) Centre, MP-IDSA. The Director-General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and all scholars of MP-IDSA were in attendance.

Executive Summary

In February 2022, France and its allies announced a coordinated withdrawal of their forces from Mali due to multiple obstructions by the military-led government. The talk shed light on the various dimensions, implications, and challenges of this move. The speaker highlighted the political, economic, and security developments in Mali, while also outlining the role of international actors in the region and underscoring the origins of French involvement in Mali, and discussing the ramifications of its withdrawal. The implications of the withdrawal on the G-5 Sahel countries, particularly as it pertained to security, were also underscored. India’s cooperation with France in Africa was discussed, along with France’s internal political and economic motivations behind the withdrawal.

Detailed Report

Ms. Ruchita Beri opened the session by underlining the growing unpopularity of the French presence in Francophone countries. With this observation, she invited Ms. Dinesh to make her presentation. Ms. Dinesh’s talk covered the implications and challenges of the withdrawal of French troops from Mali and its impact on the neighboring countries. She began her presentation by highlighting the political, economic, and security developments in Mali, including the coups, terrorist activities, prevailing poverty, and communal violence. She drew the audience’s attention to the fact that a rise in insurgent activity in northern Mali and the government’s inability to quell it led to a coup in 2012. Fearing an entrenchment of such activities in the central and southern regions, the interim government of Mali requested France’s aid in counter-terrorism, leading to Operation Serval and France’s arrival in the country in 2013. In 2020, another coup was led by Colonel Assimi Goïta against the government and in May 2021—in what the speaker said is referred to as ‘a coup within a coup’—Col. Goïta seized power and President Ndaw and Prime Minister Ouane were detained. This was the immediate political context of France’s decision to reduce its troops and later withdraw. Ms. Dinesh gave an economic overview, outlining Mali’s poverty and dependence on oil imports. She also noted that the growth of local terrorist outfits, communal violence between the herding and farming communities, drug trafficking, and other organised crimes have given rise to a complex security climate. She also provided a comprehensive overview of the activities of international bodies such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (UN MINUSMA), European Union Capacity Building Mission in Mali, and European Union Training Mission in Mali.

Talking about the inception and triggers of Operation Serval, Ms. Dinesh called attention to France’s moral obligation to look after its formal colonies. She also mentioned the success of Operation Serval in pushing back rebels to the northern part, giving rise to Operation Barkhane focused on counter-terrorism operations in the region, which although has eliminated the top leadership of several terrorist outfits and neutralised insurgents, has had limited success as the security threats in Mali have only increased. Ms. Dinesh pointed out that, after the May 2021 coup France refused to work with an unconstitutional government and President Macron announced a reduction of troops deployed to Mali. In February of 2022, France and its allies (part of Takuba Task Force) announced a coordinated withdrawal of their forces due to ‘multiple obstructions’ by the military-led government. In addition to this, a delay in elections and deterioration of bilateral ties also motivated France’s withdrawal. The speaker also shed light on the entry of new actors such as a Russian paramilitary organisation, the Wagner Group, into Mali. According to the government, the purpose of the Wagner Group is to train the armed forces of Mali but this reasoning is met with skepticism by the West. 

Ms. Dinesh outlined the internal as well as the external implications of the withdrawal. According to her, the withdrawal has immediate security consequences in both of these realms. It will open Mali to a potential increase in terrorist activities and an escalation of its security crisis. However, with the exit of foreign presence, it remains to be seen whether the insurgent and jihadist groups would now engage in talks with the Malian authorities. It will also impact the operation of MINUSMA, which is heavily dependent on France’s air support, and is not mandated to deal with counter-terrorist operations. The withdrawal also accelerates the challenges to development and humanitarian efforts extended to the nation. In the external domain, France’s withdrawal, according to Ms. Dinesh, poses concerns about the rise of transnational terrorist attacks in the region and a very real threat to countries south of the Sahel which may witness a spillover of jihadist terrorism. At the same time, she also brings to the audience’s attention the fact that the troops have not withdrawn from the entire region but only Mali.

Ms. Dinesh concluded by highlighting the possibility of the emergence of a security vacuum after France’s exit, along with Russian involvement in the region. She urged that the region is in need of a streamlined international effort, particularly a people and government-centric one, focused on the empowerment of the government apparatus and civil society.

After the conclusion of Ms. Dinesh’s presentation, Ms. Beri opened the floor for questions and discussion. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy complimented the speaker for a comprehensive presentation and also commented that care must be taken while assessing strategic partnerships with former colonial powers. Ms. Beri agreed with Ambassador Chinoy’s comments. Questions were raised on the extent of the success of the Russian Wagner Group in Mali. Underlining that Russia is Africa’s biggest arms supplier at the moment, Ms. Beri added that it is only natural that Russia would want to increase its presence in Mali. It remains to be seen as to how successful it is in dealing with the prevailing challenges.  

Some questions from the audience focused on France’s economic ambitions behind its involvement in Mali. France’s internal politics and economy were also discussed in this context. Questions were also asked about the reaction of neighboring countries to France’s withdrawal. In response, Ms. Dinesh outlined the rise of concerns in the region regarding the containment of terrorism, a potential increase in defense spending, and escalation of anxieties regarding migration. India’s cooperation with France, as well as Mali, was also discussed. The session was concluded by Ms. Beri with an acknowledgment of the fact that France is only withdrawing from Mali and still continues operations in other countries in the region, along with a comment on India-Mali relations and the future of Mali.

This report has been prepared by Ms. Halima Z. Ansari, Intern, MP-IDSA.

Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, spoke on “India-US 2+2 Dialogue: Bolstering the Strategic Partnership” at the Monday Morning Meeting which was held on 18 April 2022 at 1000hrs in the Seminar Hall I. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA chaired the session with Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director-General, Manohar Parrikar IDSA and scholars of the institute being in attendance.

Executive Summary

The India-US 2+2 Dialogue in the broader context of the India-US relationship was analysed at the meeting. The trajectory of the India-US 2+2 Dialogue since September 2018 was analysed briefly. The India-US bilateral relationship from Cold-War ideological divisions and divergent priorities to mutually beneficial strategic ties, including in the realm of defence domain was traced. It was concluded that given India’s balanced position in international affairs, the country could get the best out of the US by optimising convergences and minimising differences. India could do this by further extending its reach in the South Asian region and shielding its strategic autonomy.

Detailed Report

Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh opened the session by posing a question regarding the convergences and divergences in the India-US relationship. According to him, India’s position on the Ukraine crisis was a major divergence in the discussion. However, the candid discussion between India and the US, followed by one of the longest joint statements, indicated the robustness of the relationship. With this observation, the Chair invited Dr. Priyanka Singh to make her presentation. Dr. Singh put the India-US 2+2 Dialogue in perspective by giving a brief background of India’s 2+2 engagements with the countries concerned, including the US. She drew the audience's attention to the fact that India had 2+2 arrangements with all the Quad members and Russia. The speaker presented a brief trajectory of the India-US 2+2 Dialogue since September 2018, when the first such meeting took place. She touched upon the issue of India signing the US defence foundational pacts and India-US cooperation under the Indo-Pacific framework. Dr. Singh called the 2+2 dialogue a platform that nurtures bilateral cohesion and provides an opportunity to amalgamate the issues concerning the two sides in the realm of defence, security, and intelligence sharing. According to her, the 2+2 platform provides a personalised interface for strengthening the bilateral relationship by moving forward on specific issues of mutual interests while weeding out the differences.

Commenting on the 2+2 Dialogue that was held on 11 April 2022 in Washington DC in the presence of Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense, Lloyd J. Austin III from the US side and Minister of External Affairs (EAM), S. Jaishankar and Raksha Mantri, Rajnath Singh from the Indian side, the speaker referred to the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, India, which had positioned the dialogue as a forum to further consolidate the bilateral relationship between India and the US. The speaker also highlighted Raksha Mantri, Rajnath Singh’s visit to the Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) based in Hawaii. Further, Dr. Singh presented key developments that had taken place in the run-up to the 2+2 Dialogue. She mentioned the meeting between Foreign Secretary of India, Harsh Vardhan Shringla and the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland as a part of a diplomatic exercise undertaken by the US with the countries that had taken a neutral stance at the United Nations (UN) vis-à-vis the Ukraine crisis. The speaker also referred to the controversial statement by the US Deputy National Security Advisor, Daleep Singh during his India visit where he had warned countries trying to circumvent American sanctions against Russia. Further, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, had referred to the 2+2 Dialogue as a health check of the India-US strategic partnership. Moreover, President Biden had termed India as a ‘shaky ally’ amongst the Quad countries. Thus, there were a series of critical statements regarding India from the US’ top political echelon before the 2+2 Dialogue.

Apart from the statements, the 2+2 Dialogue was preceded by important geopolitical events in the region such as the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, India’s cautious position on the Ukraine crisis, and the rupture in the US-Pakistan relationship. Thus, the 2+2 Dialogue was an attempt to find a way to accommodate the varying priorities of India and the US that would resurrect confidence in the bilateral relationship. Emphasising the importance of the Dialogue, Dr. Singh observed that the 2+2 Dialogue was prefaced by a virtual meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Biden, which showed the strategic importance accorded by both sides to the Dialogue. The joint statement released after the 2+2 Dialogue prominently mentioned Global Partnership and Indo-Pacific Cooperation; Mutual Prosperity, Innovation, and Resilient Supply Chains; Climate, Environment, and Clean Energy; Science, Technology, Cybersecurity, and Space; Global Health; Defence and Security; Counterterrorism and Counter Narcotics; and Education and People-to-People Ties. Civilian deaths in Ukraine were condemned, and the cessation of hostilities was stressed on by both sides. The joint statement and presser after suggested that the US understood India’s position on issues of mutual interest. Additionally, there were efforts to augment bilateral investments, signing of a bilateral space situational awareness arrangement, expansion of ties in the cyber and space domain, promotion and review of working groups of the Quad, and a waiver from Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions for the time being. The joint statement also called on Pakistan to stop supporting terrorism from its soil.

The statement welcomed the convening of the 18th meeting of the India-US joint working group on counter-terrorism and the fourth Session of the India-U.S. Designations Dialogue in October 2021. Thus, the net result of the Dialogue was that things were back on track and the US and India decided to agree to disagree on the Ukraine crisis. The key focus of the discussion was the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Singh argued that India-US relations have moved from Cold-War ideological divisions and divergent priorities to mutually beneficial strategic ties, including in the defence domain. History and circumstances have shaped India-US relations. India-US defence cooperation dates back to 1951, when the first military agreement was signed between the two countries. Both countries participated in the joint military exercise ‘Shiksha’ way back in 1962. However, issues such as the Cold-War and the US’ stand on Kashmir did not let the relationship evolve. The root of the present synergy between the two sides goes back to 1991, before which the relationship was moving forward in an extremely cautious way under a conservative framework. In conclusion, the speaker pondered about whether the India-US relationship has already plateaued, even though the China factor might act as an adhesive? She maintained that given India’s balanced position in international affairs, the country could get the best out of the US by optimising convergences and minimising differences. India could do this by further extending its reach in the South Asian region and by shielding its strategic autonomy.

Participating in the discussion, Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi complimented the speaker and asserted that India is navigating in an extremely complicated international scenario. India’s defence agreements with the US came about in a space where it helped India posture against China with a dormant Russia. Now Russia has suddenly re-emerged on the international canvas, which has made the situation extremely volatile. The Quad has no security implications as of now. India is the only intersection point in the BRICS, the RIC and the Quad. Thus, the country has to straddle both sides, balancing the competing priorities. A lot of things in the realm of India-US defence cooperation may not be in the public domain. In the security arena, the two countries have an anti-terrorism assistance programme. In the domain of technology transfer, things are moving forward positively, with Boeing announcing that Chinook chassis will be made in India. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi observed that US-Pakistan relations are likely to improve. He drew attention to the fact that Pakistan had accused Afghanistan of promoting terrorism against the former. Pakistan Air Force aircraft had gone across the border to bomb the Khost province of Afghanistan. He raised the possibility of the US-Russia-India relationship turning into a zero-sum game and raised the question that if India moves closer to the US, does India have to go away from Russia? Or can India manage both relations?

Responding to the ensuing questions, Dr. Singh claimed that India does not have an option to be with either Russia or the US. India has to deal with both simultaneously. Both the US and Russia are important for India in its quest to deal with China. If one leaves Russia, it will move closer to China. Thus, the challenge before India is to strike a balance between Russia and a strategic partnership with the US. India’s stand on Ukraine is a testament of India’s balancing act. It will take time for the US to replace Russia in India’s strategic calculus, and even the US understands it. India seems to be listening to the US but not reacting so much. The priority for the regional actors is China and the Indo-Pacific. According to Dr. Singh, there is no threat to India on account of US-Pakistan relations.

Participating in the discussion, Cmde. Singh said that the US is constantly pushing back against Chinese assertiveness through regional, sub-regional and bilateral levels, although there exists a perception that the US was not doing enough. Moreover, Cmde. Singh contended that the Quad had an overt military security hand. But the Quad members purposely made efforts not to make the Quad look like an Asian NATO. However, the military-security domain remains the backbone of the Quad. Moreover, the Quad countries have enhanced security relations amongst one another in a bilateral and trilateral format. Cmde. Singh stated that Russia’s reputation had taken a hit due to the Ukraine crisis, while the perception of US decline had existed for the past 20 years. With this thought-provoking discussion, the Monday Morning Meeting came to an end.

The report was prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA.