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Monday Morning Meeting on Iran Nuclear Talks: Key Issues and Regional Implications July 18, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Iran Nuclear Talks: Key Issues and Regional Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nearly for over a year, the Iran nuclear talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA have been going on between Iran and P5+1 countries. There have been many agreements and disagreements between them and other states. Iran made an attempt to enrich the nuclear material (Uranium) above the enrichment level limited by the JCPOA, leading to complications with the IAEA. If nuclear material has fissile isotope more than 20%, it is considered as Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and below 20%, is considered as Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). There have been many key issues that acted as stumbling blocks in the Iran Nuclear Talks and Iran has also made many demands which are discussed below.

DETAILED REPORT

Dr. Rajiv Nayan, the moderator, during his opening remarks, started by briefing the audience about the Iran Nuclear talks - key issues and implications. He also talked about enrichment of uranium and how it can be considered as a threat by other countries. He mentioned that Iran export controls and enrichment technology control violates the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in the working paper submitted in different preparatory committees of NPT Review Conferences.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat started with introducing the structure of the presentation. She gave a background on the beginning of the Iran Nuclear talks since April last year in Vienna. She continued her introduction by mentioning what were Iran’s redlines, early disagreements, key issues, and regional implications.

She mentioned that, even before President Biden was inaugurated, Iran’s Supreme Leader declared that Iran was seeking verifiable lifting of all sanctions. But contrary to expectations, Biden administration did not swiftly return to the JCPOA by an executive order. Before the negotiations began in April, Biden administration preferred to have an internal consensus and also consulted US regional allies. But because of the initial dithering by the US, Iran ended up entrenching its position on issue of guarantees and verification of sanction relief.  Iran refused to have direct negotiations with the US and the commissioner of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA, which is the EU representative, playing intermediary between the US and Iran. Three expert level working groups were set up for technical nuclear issue, for addressing sanctions and sequencing of steps.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat shed some light on the Iran parliament redlines. Iran's early redlines are that it was not looking for waivers, where the President was going to waive sanctions every 120 days, 90 days, but it wanted a complete removal of all sanctions, including the ones enacted by Congress. On the sequencing of steps, Iran maintained that it will fulfil its nuclear commitments only after verifying the effectiveness of sanctions relief. Also the guarantee that the US will not pull out of the JCPOA or undermine it by imposing new sanctions, including non-nuclear related sanctions. There were also disagreements on nuclear commitments, which were problematised by Iran’s reduction of its JCPOA commitments in response to ‘maximum pressure’.

Pointing to the many nuclear facilities in Iran on the map, Dr. Saraswat noted the most important one is the Natanz nuclear facility, which is actually a complex with underground and above ground facilities, including pilot fuel enrichment plant and the commercial enrichment facilities, which are underground. Secondly, the Fordo facility, part of the JCPOA, had been converted into a technologies centre, which began enriching again.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat listed the time-line of engagement between Iran and the IAEA on safeguard issues. In May 2019, Iran began rolling back its JCPOA-related nuclear commitments in line with the bill passed by Iran’s parliament in December 2020 mandating Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation to do so. However, in February-2021, to preserve IAEA’s continuity of knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program, Iran agreed to a temporary technical understanding with the agency. In April 2021, Natanz fuel enrichment plant sabotage took place. Then following Karaj centrifuge parts manufacturing workshop sabotage in June 2021, Iran allowed the IAEA to replace cameras only after it was threatened with censure. But the May 2022 IAEA  report finds Iran has breached NPT safeguards by not fully cooperating with the IAEA, and subsequently IAEA Board of Governors passed a US-EU3 drafted censure resolution against Iran for ‘insufficient cooperation’ with IAEA investigation into undeclared nuclear materials and activities from the pre-2003 period. In June 2022, Iran responded by turning off the JCPOA-related monitoring cameras.

Dr. Saraswat elaborated on how the E3 and the US have been driven by a sense of urgency, given that the Iranian nuclear program has been advancing. But Iran has shown no such urgency because they think that as their nuclear programme accelerates, it will only the gain leverage. She also noted that a key contentious issue was that in order to extend the breakout time, Iran will have to dismantle and store under seal its advanced centrifuges, also destroy the corresponding electronic infrastructure and assembly lines.

Iran also continued to demand ‘guarantees’ for seeking a sustainable deal at least during the Biden administration. However, in March 2022, Iran showed flexibility in its demand of verification for lifting of sanctions as the US had agreed to lift two-third of 1,500 Trump era sanctions designations. Iran also demanded IRGC’s FTO designation. Initially, the Biden administration had agreed that if Iran controls its regional activities, then it will consider lifting this designation. Another issue that the speaker referred to is the IAEA investigation in Iran's undercoated nuclear sites that they were trying to cover up past nuclear activities for ‘possible military dimension’.

The final section of Dr. Saraswat’s presentation was about regional implications of Iran nuclear talks. Iran nuclear talks have been paralleled by ‘security-focussed talks’ between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Qatar, Oman have played intermediaries in nuclear talks in the past and have helped break deadlocks between Iran and the US. Recent US-Iran talks in Doha failed over disagreements on the scope and guarantees on sanctions relief. Biden’s recent visit to Israel, Saudi Arabia also was about pressuring Iran into coming back to the JCPOA.

DISCUSSION

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, started his comments by stating that US does not seem very serious at this stage about the JCPOA. He gave his view about the topic. Firstly, he opined that world has changed a lot since JCPOA has come into effect in January 2016. It is unrecognisable in terms of threat perceptions, in terms of ups and downs of US politics with the Trump Presidency and Biden Administration. Secondly, is it virtually impossible for the US to formulate a new policy towards Iran or towards the JCPOA without having formulated its fundamental policy towards the Middle East. Furthermore, he also stated that, in addition to the IAEA monitoring Iran, Israel, which is the sworn enemy of Iran, is keeping an eye on Iran operations.

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) raised the query if US allies are opting for normalisation and US is going for maximum pressure then why not take direct action. He also asked do we see a new axis between Iran, Russia and China. How this is going to impact the Indo-Iran relationship.

Mr. Pradeep Gautam raised a query regarding the internal complications of the Iranian regime and the changes seen in the behaviour of the same due to the internal pressure.

Dr. Adil Rashid asked a question regarding the Russia-Ukraine war - that with the Ukraine issue, America could be trying to have influence with Central Asia through being closer to Muslim brotherhood and can this be seen like a possible counter of US to Russia and China.

Dr. Jatin Kumar asked whether Iran is looking for a nuclear bomb or not. He also commented that, Israel is continuously mounting cyber-attacks on Iran and that unlike nuclear facilities of Iraq and Syria, Iran’s facilities are fortified.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Aasi Ansari, Intern, Centre for Nuclear and Arms Control

Interaction with Delegation from National Defence College (NDC), Nigeria June 01, 2022 1030 to 1300 hrs Other

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) hosted a delegation from the National Defence College (NDC), Nigeria for an interaction on 01 June 2022 at 1500 hours IST. The delegation comprised military officers from Nigeria and other African countries, along with Cmde Tikoo of the Indian Navy and a few civilian academics. The welcome remarks were delivered by Maj Gen Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA. Initial remarks were made by the leader of the delegation, Cmde Aniefiok Cletus Uko. Ms Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Centre Coordinator, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA made a presentation on India-Nigeria relations and Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA made a presentation on India-Nigeria Maritime Cooperation. The session was attended by scholars from the Institute’s ALACUN Centre and Military Affairs Centre. The key highlights of the discussion were India-Nigeria relations, India-Nigeria maritime cooperation and India’s role in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

The MP-IDSA team was led by Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi (Retd), Deputy Director-General, MP-IDSA, and included members from MP-IDSA's Africa, LAC & UN Centre and Military Affairs Centre. Maj Gen Bakshi welcomed the Nigerian delegation and expressed satisfaction with the growing cooperation between India and Nigeria on a number of fronts. He commented on the institutionalisation of the India-Africa Defence Dialogue, which aids in the exploration of new areas of convergence for mutual engagements such as capacity building, training, cyber security, maritime security, and counter-terrorism. He then outlined the various bilateral engagements and projects between India and Africa, including the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme (ITEC), Pan Africa e-network, and e-VidyaBharti network project. Maj Gen Bakshi reiterated how India has made significant contributions to peacekeeping missions around the world, particularly in Africa. Finally, he introduced MP-IDSA to the delegates, detailing its activities, governance system, research, and training. He concluded that the current scenario between the two countries provides the best opportunities to advance the relationship.

Cmde Aniefiok Cletus Uko, Director of Research and Analytical Support at the NDC, Nigeria, welcomed Maj Gen Bakshi's remarks on behalf of the Nigerian delegation, adding that India has had an impact on their training for many years, including NDC Commandant Rear Adm OB Daji, who underwent the NDC course in India with the DDG. He later reflected on the NDC's history, training process, and international collaborations.

Cmde Uko remarked that the current dynamics in the international system have created a global order that is volatile on certain complex and systemic levels. To thrive in this environment, one must reach out. It is high time to build defence and security capacities to expose officers and people in the security sector to what happens elsewhere and see where one can exchange ideas and draw good lessons. He noted that the College would be touring 20 countries this year, divided into ten teams. The current visiting team is team four. He delineated that the focus of the current year's visit is medical care and human security in India as imperatives for Nigeria. Cmde Uko notes India is a leading country in meeting Nigeria's medical needs, with Indian pharmaceutical businesses playing an important part in the country's health delivery. Medical tourism is becoming incredibly popular among Nigerians, with India being the most preferred destination. He concluded by expressing that he hopes to learn more about India's health infrastructure and nursing reforms during this visit. He was especially pleased with the warm reception he got at the institute.

During the meeting, Ms Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate & Coordinator, Africa, LAC & UN Centre, MP- IDSA, briefed on India-Nigeria ties. She recalled how MP-IDSA had previously hosted NDC delegations as well as other renowned personalities in the India-Africa Strategic Dialogue in collaboration with the Ministry of External Affairs. She opened her speech by referring to Prime Minister Modi's visit to Uganda in 2018 and announcing the ten guiding principles of India's engagement with Africa, which demonstrate the intensity and seriousness of New Delhi's engagement with Africa. Ms Beri pointed out that the main mantra of India's vision of engagement with Africa is partnership and mutual gain. In her speech, she addressed five issues, beginning with the two nations' historical ties. She recalled how India and Nigeria had similar colonial legacies and added that Nigerian nationalists were inspired by the Indian freedom struggle in their fight for independence. Ms Beri proceeded with the socio-cultural cooperation between the nations, alluding to the educational exchange between the two countries in which India grants scholarships to Nigerian students.

The third topic raised by Ms Beri was economic ties and cooperation, highlighting how Nigeria is India's largest trading partner in Africa and India is Nigeria's second-largest trading partner. She asserted that pharmaceuticals play a significant role in India's exports to Nigeria and that the Covid-19 Pandemic has exposed the need for greater health collaboration between India and Nigeria. She believes it is critical to establish collaborative ventures, such as joint pharmaceutical companies, multi-speciality hospitals, in order to expand health cooperation between the two countries and enhance Nigeria's health security.

On the topic of agriculture, Ms Beri reminded that Nigeria has the most uncultivated arable land in Africa and a significant potential for meeting not only Nigeria's but the whole African continent's food demands. In terms of security, given the two nations continue to confront multiple security concerns such as counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and maritime insecurity, India and Nigeria may strengthen their collaboration in this area.      Ms Beri highlighted that training has long been a cornerstone of India's defence and security cooperation with Nigeria.

Ms Beri concluded her speech by reinforcing the need to reform multilateral institutions, and that India and Nigeria should take the lead and work together to ensure that voices from the Global South are heard in the multilateral fora, pushing for greater reforms in organisations like the United Nations and the World Trade Organizations. She contended that India and Nigeria share several common factors including large populations, democratic political systems, and diverse societies that face similar challenges such as terrorism and strive for inclusive socioeconomic development. These commonalities spur a greater cooperation between India and Nigeria.

In the second session, Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, gave a briefing on India-Nigeria Maritime Cooperation. He summarised his talk by discussing the strategic approach to maritime cooperation in the IOR and in Africa in general, as well as the aspects of bilateral maritime cooperation between the two nations. He underlined that the two guiding principles of India-Africa defence relations are 'SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' (universal friendship across the globe).

The maritime domain is crucial to Africa's peace, security, and development. With an expansion in resource extraction activities at sea, not only has the amount of marine traffic increased but so has the rate of maritime crime. The widespread illegal capture and exploitation of continents' nautical resources have sparked calls for stronger maritime governance. Piracy has been a major source of worry in the Gulf of Aden. He further said that the world needs cooperation, not competition, in the African and Indian Ocean regions. As a result, India's vision of Indian Ocean Region is cooperative and inclusive, with a focus on security and progress for all in the region. India has extended support to African countries by offering military assistance, capacity building, and training. The Indian Navy has provided maritime assistance to friendly nations on their request to address the specific requirements including hydrographic survey, ordnance disposal, salvage, search and rescue, and overseeing ship’s construction.    He said that this type of maritime assistance demonstrates the trust and confidence of the requesting nations in India's capabilities and preparedness to solve contingency issues.

Cmde Singh emphasised that one of the most significant components of India-Nigeria maritime cooperation has been cooperation on maritime domain awareness, for which India has signed a white shipping agreement with Nigeria to exchange views on commercial shipping presence in each other's territories. In 2018, the Nigerian Chief of Naval Staff, Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas, visited India, as did a team comprised of representatives from the National Security Council.

In conclusion, he stated that India, the world's largest democracy, and Nigeria, Africa's largest democracy, share ideals of pluralism, inclusion and sustainable development and that deeper bilateral ties are anticipated to maintain momentum.

Q/A Session

Several issues were raised during the discussions, including rising piracy in the Gulf of Aden, future prospects of India establishing a base in Africa, countering Chinese influence in the IOR, the prospects of medical tourism, and so forth. The Nigerians were amazed by the stability and absence of military coups in India and no role of the military in the country’s politics. Perhaps lessons could be learnt/shared from India's stable and strong democratic traditions. The team was particularly interested in the institute's research on counterterrorism and India-Nigeria ties. They also expressed an interest in initiating formal cooperation between NDC Nigeria’s Centre for Strategic Research and Studies (CSRS) and MP-IDSA. The discussion was informative, with the NDC delegates and the MP-IDSA scholars learning a lot about each other's perspectives on regional issues and bilateral ties. A vote of thanks was presented by a member of the NDC delegation. The meeting concluded with Maj Gen Bakshi thanking the delegation and exchange of mementoes on both sides.

Monday Morning Meeting on “Far-Right Extremism in the West” June 27, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Far-Right Extremism in the West” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 27 June 2022. Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, chaired the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and research scholars enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions.

Executive Summary

Incidents of far-right extremism have increased in both the United States of America  (U.S.A.) and Europe, especially in the past few decades.
To that effect, the presentation highlighted its driving factors, ideological foundations, strategies of operation, and impact on the post-World War II rules-based order. While touching on prospective threats to Indian interests in this context, the presentation proposed corrective measures.

Detailed Report

The speaker highlighted the surge in far-right extremism over the past five years. According to the United Nations Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee, between 2015 and 2020, over 82 percent of deaths recorded due to extremist violence were perpetrated by far-right extremists. Three recent incidents were pointed out in this context, such as the Christchurch attacks in New Zealand in March 2019, the Capitol Hill riots in Washington, D.C., in January 2021, and the Buffalo shootings in May 2022.

Additionally, she spoke about factors, including the 2008 financial crisis, European Union’s well-meaning but awry immigration policy, particularly amid the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, and the beheading of Samuel Paty in a suburb of Paris in October 2020, re-enforced the far-right narrative and thrust it into mainstream discourse. Simultaneously, it was underscored how the far-right musical festival in Kyiv and the participation of thousands of foreign fighters in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, driven by their ambition to acquire arms and combat operational training to foment devastation and anarchy in their native countries, have continued to worsen the security dilemma. More recently, it was emphasised how the COVID-19 Pandemic and a surge in disinformation with increased access to social media and online gaming platforms have swelled the ranks of the far-right.

The far-right ideologues, spanning the political, media, and literary spectrum, are also responsible for drawing out the crisis.

Ms. Kidwai also emphasised that abovementioned factors have collectively resulted in the gradual normalisation of far-right extremism. However, the phenomenon often derives its legitimacy from extremist ideological foundations. For example, the Great Replacement Theory, mainstreamed by Renaud Camus, has suggested a deliberate attempt to bring in an influx of illegal migrant workers into predominantly white European societies, converting the white Christians into a minority in their homelands and eventually ridding them. This theory found considerable popular support as white genocide in the U.S.A. and EurAbia across Europe, inspiring the Charleston Church Shooting in June 2015. Furthermore, Accelerationism, a fringe far-right ideology that propounds that the current liberal democratic framework is highly inept and requires to be violently overthrown for a white-dominated order to emerge, found support in the Tree of Life Synagogue attack in Pennsylvania in October 2018. Finally, Eco-fascism links the ideas of cultural degradation with environmental deportation. It holds the immigrants solely responsible for environmental degradation in predominantly white European communities. People like Brenton Tarrant, the Christchurch shooter, were inspired by such beliefs.

The speaker mentioned that there appears to be an absence of notoriety in the aftermath of a violent attack staged by far-right supporters. They also operate in a decentralised manner, inspired by James Nolan Mason and Louis Ray Beam, in contrast with the 20th-century hierarchical systems in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. Nevertheless, they remain inspired by ISIS’ martyrdom tactics, rely on social media to further their agenda, and even convene through offline training camps organised by groups such as The Base. An equally significant of far-right characteristic is according white males who carry out acts of mass violence, titles such as “Saints.”  

Ms. Kidwai also delineated how self-publishing service platforms like Google Play Books allow authors to bypass the censorship guidelines that reputable publishing houses would generally upload. Moreover, the ability of fictional books to inspire acts of large-scale violence can be found in The Oklahoma City bombings of April 1995, inspired by works such as The Turner Diaries. The complexity surrounding the lone-wolf narrative and the deepening ties between the radical Islamists and far-right extremists, mainly over the past year, is a matter that is of increasing concern. Furthermore, ideological malleability displayed by far-right ideologues, their infiltration into armed and police forces, and increasing penetration of boundaries of even Asian countries like Singapore, are some of the unnerving trends demonstrated by the speaker, who also spoke about the civil society’s response to addressing this threat. Initiatives such as EXIT- Germany have achieved satisfactory success in this regard.

Moreover, funding more research in the area and ensuring setting up a mutually accessible database would be crucial. But, unfortunately, a lack of collaborative efforts has hindered the duplication of such success worldwide.

Before concluding the presentation, the speaker deconstructed potential threats to Indian diaspora, officials, and investments given the violent extremist’s belligerent attitudes towards immigrants and globalisation. She also emphasised the implications of neo-Nazi outfits colluding with anti-India elements to undermine its national security, should they choose to come together.  

As the presentation drew to an end, the need to eradicate the far-right challenge from its root was addressed before moving to how unless it is brought to an absolute halt, the end of the post-WWII liberal international framework could become a foregone conclusion. 

Key Takeaways from the Q&A Session

The insightful remarks shared by the audience added depth to the presentation. The discussion had primarily focused on four critical areas:-

  1. The need to further explore the historical background of the emergence of the far-right.
  2. A comparative study with the emergence of left-wing extremism and cult-based groups.
  3. An analysis of any pre-existing response mechanisms to the stated threat.
  4. A detailed study of the factors driving this ideology, especially Islamist extremism, economic inequality, and cultural affinities.

The points raised were well taken and proposed to be incorporated as subjects of further study.

This report was prepared by Ms. Tejusvi Shukla, Intern, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on “Growing Political Uncertainty in Sri Lanka: An Analysis” July 11, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

The Monday morning meeting on “Growing Political Uncertainty in Sri Lanka: An Analysis” was held on 11 July 2022 at 10 AM in the Auditorium. Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), Dr. Gulbin Sultana spoke on the subject and elaborated on the significance and implications of the crisis in Sri Lanka. The session was chaired by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Co-ordinator & Senior Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. Director-General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) shared their views.

Executive Summary

Sri Lanka has been passing through a serious political crisis which was preceded by a severe economic crisis in the country. The political uncertainty in the island nation has created a political uncertainty which is not going to end anytime soon, given the disagreements in the political leadership about various matters, like the formation of an interim government, holding fresh elections, and the demand of the protestors for a new political system in the country by abolishing the existing system of executive presidency. Although President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has finally yielded and hinted that he might resign, that is unlikely going to end the protests. The economic crisis continues and with least external support, the leadership of the country are finding it hard to manage the crisis. A lot will depend on the possible deal with the IMF. The deal however, will require a lot of homework and restructuring of the debt, change in some economic policies, etc.

Detailed Report

Dr. Ashok Kumar Behuria, the Chair, in his initial remarks said that the political crisis in Sri Lanka seemed inevitable as the crisis has been building up and deteriorating from 2016 onwards. Dr. Behuria said that the response to the intensifying economic crisis from the government was lackadaisical. Even the much needed loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was delayed. Not only did the Rajapaksa brothers act very late, the measures taken by them were not enough and were ineffective in mitigating the crisis. The country has external debt upto US$35 billion. Dr. Behuria said that since the protests are popular and have mass support, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa may have to resign under pressure. He also pointed out that the developments in Sri Lanka also underline the fact that a government that has come to power with popular vote may lose that popular support soon if it is unable to deliver and meet the expectations of the people.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana:  Dr. Gulbin Sultan started by saying that 9 July was a historical day in the history of modern Sri Lanka. The anti-government protests in the island country, also known as ‘Aragalaya’ locally, had reached their climax by the occupation of the Presidential Palace. She said that it is all likely, as stated by some government officials, that the protests have succeeded in forcing the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and ending the infamous Rajapaksa rule in the country. Dr. Gulbin raised four points in the wake of the latest developments in Sri Lanka: 1) Will the resignation of the President end the political instability?; 2) Will it end the protests?; 3) If the President and the Prime Minister resign, what will happen to the much needed IMF package that is being negotiated by a team led by Prime Minister Ranil Wikramasinghe?; and 4) What impact will the developments have on India’s interests in the country?

Dr. Gulbin said that the resignation of the president is not going to end the popular protests led by the people. On 9 July, all political leaders met in the parliament to decide the next course of action. Four decisions were taken in the meeting: 1) The President and the Prime Minister (PM) should resign immediately; 2) the parliament should be reconvened in 7 days to appoint acting President; 3) appointment of an all-party government under a new Prime Minister commanding majority in the parliament; and 4) announcing fresh elections within short period of time.

Appointing a new president and calling fresh elections are going to be contentious issues, Dr. Gulbin stated. Earlier also, when the opposition parties were demanding resignation of then PM Mahindra Rajapaksa, they could not unite or create consensus for a new prime ministerial candidate. She said that even now the opposition parties are not united. She also pointed out that even if the President resigns and despite some defections from the ruling party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) still enjoys the majority. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the main opposition party has only 58 members. The problem is that when it comes to voting for passing bills or making laws, cross voting is quite likely, like in the past.  

Dr. Gulbin said that though the protesters have been able to force the president to resign, they have more demands. One of the demands is to change the existing political system in the country on which the people have lost their trust. Additionally, they demand that after the formation of an interim government, there should be a popular council through which the representatives of the protestors will remain in touch with the new government. Dr. Gulbin said that this and other demands are going to be tough as the IMF has already made it clear that the country needs to take some strong measures and not to give any freebies. What it makes more difficult is that the protestors are not ready to trust the opposition leaders well.  

The countries that were expected to help Sri Lanka like the US, Japan and others have conditioned their major financial assistance with the agreement with the IMF, Dr. Gulbin added. Though some political parties, like SLPP and SJB, are saying that they have plans ready to deal with the economic crisis, it is not only a matter of having plans: Much of it will depend on how other countries look at the crisis and whether they are ready to step in for help.

Dr. Gulbin said that India’s approach has been cautious during all this. In its statement, New Delhi stated that the country stands with the democratic right of people to protest. India has also been providing assistance for the last four months and the two countries have signed many agreements and MoUs on projects which were delayed for many years. However, when these agreements/MoUs were being signed, many political parties, including the main opposition party were critical of these deals for various reasons. Dr. Gulbin said that in the wake of the crisis, there are some doubts whether any new government in Sri Lanka would continue those agreements/projects. She concluded by saying that India should not stop its assistance as it can create some goodwill among the sections that are critical of India’s role. She ended by saying that India should carefully pursue its national interests.

Discussion

The Director General, Ambassador (R) Sujan R. Chinoy, in his remarks, said that Sri Lanka needs food, fuel, pharma and faith to come out of the crisis. While the Lankans have abundance of faith, the world and India in particular will have to come forth in case of the former three. Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that the crisis goes beyond the ‘China factor’. He said that the Chinese have contributed to the crisis but mainly the problem lies on the Sri Lankan side. If China is such a critical factor then there are a number of countries where China is involved, they should be falling into a similar crisis which is not the case. Ambassador Chinoy said that in this type of crisis China is very unlikely to step in any optical manner. China is likely to come forth to do some restructuring but it is unlikely going to be present physically or materially as it does not want to be castigated as ‘whipping boy’, as it is already accused of being one in some parts of the world.

Ambassador Chinoy said that India’s role is going to be crucial for providing food, fuel, and pharma to Sri Lanka. He also pointed out that it is strange that the US was going to spend $54 billion as arms assistance to Ukraine in 2022-2023 to help the latter fight against Russia where Kyiv is still unlikely to get any major success; it is not ready to help Sri Lanka by providing much less: $34 billion.

With regard to the possibility of Sri Lankan refugees coming to India, mainly Tamil refugees, Ambassador Chinoy said that though foreign minister S. Jaishankar has said that so far there is no indication but that does not rule out the possibility of them ending up in India as a large number of people of Tamil origin, are having base on the both sides. He also said that the impact of Tamil Nadu politics needs to be analysed.  

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) said that it is strange that a promising economy in the recent past and seen as a tourist hub, in five-six years’ time has collapsed. He said that the people want a new political system. Does that mean that they want a system where a popular front (led by the people) should be able to interact with the government? Does that mean it will overcrowd the democratic government? He further stated that imposing schemes like organic farming in a dictatorial style without proper data and without paying any heed to professional advice seemed to have led to unwanted consequences.

Cmde. Abhay Singh (Retd.) said that in general it is seen that any conflict, political or otherwise, accentuates social/ethnic fault lines. In Sri Lanka, what is seen as of now is that the participation in the protests has been inclusive. However, the question is that, in case of scarcity of resources and essential commodities, how long will this unity in the protest survive? This will become important when people will start preferring micro interests over the macro ones when they will prefer families, clans, communities, etc.

Dr. Smruti S. Pattnaik raised the issue of whether the violence erupted during the peaceful protests were organised and supported by some political parties. She said that there were speculations that SJB had some role in the protests. This is important given the fact that in some incidents some members of some political parties were involved. She said that given all this, the role of some political forces in giving direction to the protests cannot be ruled out entirely. Dr Smruti said that with regard to the deal with the IMF that is being negotiated, it is unlikely to get approved by the international financial body unless there is debt restructuring.  Responding to Dr. Smruti’s query on SJB’s involvement in the violence on 9 July, Dr. Gulbin said that speculations are rife in Sri Lanka about the involvement of the Frontline Socialist Party, a breakaway faction of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in organising the violence.

The report has been prepared by Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” July 04, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Pradeep S. Gautam, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 4 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

G7 remains one of the most important multilateral bodies to set the global agenda and tackle emerging challenges. However, it is also faced with internal incoherence on certain issues. As its share in the global GDP has gradually declined, it has chosen to engage more and more with like-minded democracies such as India, in furtherance of its agenda.

India must use G7 and similar multilateral bodies, including World Trade Organisation (WTO), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and G20 to maximise its national interests. Although at the same time, it has increasingly become difficult to arrive at a consensus in these multilateral forums. Hence, there is a need to engage countries bilaterally and in smaller groups as well. This effort may only bear fruit if accompanied with necessary domestic reforms.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rao introduced the topic of the Monday morning meeting by underlining the values and attributes at the core of G7, particularly in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. She also spoke about the group’s most recent meeting in June 2022 and the 28-page communiqué released by the participating leaders, which primarily focused on China and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) programme to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Following the brief introduction, the chair gave the floor to Mr. Gautam.

The speaker initially delved into G7’s historical context, i.e., its emergence in response to the 1970s economic crisis and its evolution as a multilateral forum to address global challenges. He also delineated the grouping’s operational framework and its overlapping work with organisations, including the WTO, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and G20.

Mr. Gautam further addressed G7’s meeting in Elmau, Germany organised between 26 to 28 June 2022 and laid out the empirical data concerning the inter-governmental forum’s share of the global gross domestic product (GDP) between 1975 and 2020. He mentioned that its highest share of the GDP was visible during the Clinton Presidency. He also examined how there exists an overlap between G7 and G20’s membership.

Moving further, the speaker elaborated on issues that have been of vital significance to G7 leaders, primarily taxation of e-commerce multi-national corporations, global infrastructure, global financial stress, and trade and supply chains. In that context, he looked at how the member states have responded to these challenges, the implications for India, and how the latter can move forward regarding these matters of vital concern. Finally, he flagged a few key issues specific to India, including how it requires more data-driven analysis on economic issues, the continuation of a balanced budget, and more reforms to attract global capital. In addition, India’s strength in its domestic economy may help it negotiate better internationally.

The speaker underscored the pros and cons of the PGII vis-à-vis the BRI. He also discussed economic distress in developing countries due to COVID lockdowns, the Ukraine war, increasing energy prices, and finally increasing interest rates in the US. While discussing that, he highlighted increasing inflation and interest rates, and the threat of recession in the G7 countries, limiting their bandwidth for international intervention for the next 2-3 years.

The speaker highlighted the need for capacity building in negotiating trade deals and effective use of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), trade, and industrial policy to attract international investment and become part of the global supply chain. In addition, the speaker raised other issues of primary importance centred around energy and food security, climate change, and sustainable development.

After the speaker brought his presentation to a close, the chair thanked him for his insightful remarks and opened the floor to questions and comments from the audience.

The question-and-answer session highlighted diverse perspectives rooted in a detailed analysis of the issue discussed during the meeting. Some of the crucial themes highlighted during the session are as follows: –

  • The importance of exploring G7’s ties with the global south and the challenges emanating from this relationship.
  • The need to examine the role of BRICS in economic and infrastructural development.
  • The need to strengthen WTO’s dispute settlement mechanisms.
  • The wave of protectionist trends is blowing worldwide.
  • Each country is looking to preserve and promote individualistic interests.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, the United States of America’s unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan despite a multilateral international coalition force in the country, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict are culpable for weakening the various multilateral platforms.
  • The adverse impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the Rupee-Dollar valuation, acute oil shortage, and food crisis worldwide.
  • The World Bank’s June 2022 report and economic repercussions that are awaiting the world.
  • The challenges of stagflation, i.e., the combined output of slow economic growth, steady unemployment, and inflation.
  • The growing restiveness among the Indian youth due to the financial crisis.
  • The need to cap the price of Russian oil exports and its implications for India.
  • The obligation of Indian leaders to re-negotiate “smarter FTAs.”
  • A comparative analysis of the BRI and ‘Build Back Better World Initiative’ announced in 2021 and how the latter has been subsumed in PGII and is focused on providing infrastructural and developmental aid for middle and low-income countries.
  • The politicisation of oil production has been a visible trend, particularly in the past year.
  • The European continent is experiencing a dichotomy regarding the issue of energy security.
  • G7’s cooperation with China concerning change, despite the military and political conflict between the two actors.

This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar June 20, 2022 1000 Monday Morning Meeting

Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal:  India, Bangladesh and Myanmar” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 20 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Senior scholars, research analysts and interns of the institution were in attendance.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Bangladesh’s initiation of arbitration proceedings separately against India and Myanmar, under UNCLOS, resulted in the creation of a “grey area”, having overlapping continental shelf and exclusive economic zone rights, between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This “grey area”, which is yet to be resolved, hampers maritime security and development of the Bay of Bengal region.

DETAILED REPORT

Dr. Smruti commenced the session by highlighting that land and maritime boundary settlements between India and Bangladesh continue to remain incomplete. With this context, she introduced the audience to grey areas and the overlapping Continental Shelf and EEZ claims in the Bay of Bengal region. She also noted that the discussion on grey areas cannot remain limited to India and Bangladesh and requires a trilateral focus by featuring Myanmar.

With these remarks, Dr. Smruti invited Capt. Anurag to make his presentation. At the outset, Capt. Anurag pointed out that the issue of grey areashas not received adequate attention, possibly due to the complexity of the case, the presence of multiple stakeholders, and lack of expertise on the topic. He reiterated the critical importance of the issue towards collective security and development of Bay of Bengal. For ease of understanding, Capt. Anurag introduced the audience to the geographical features of the Bay of Bengal region and the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He also explained Baselines, Continental Shelf (CS) and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).  He pointed out that claims to the Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) require submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). Both India and Bangladesh made their submissions in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Through a timeline of events, Capt. Bisen elucidated that following Bangladesh’s arbitrary proceedings against India and Myanmar in 2009, the ITLOS judgment of 2012 and the Arbitral Award of 2014 resulted in the creation of a grey area.

In the next part of his presentation, Capt. Anurag employed interactive maps to display the grey areas between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. He brought out that as a consequence of delimitation, Myanmar’s EEZ rights in the water column overlapped with Bangladesh’s CS rights on the seabed. Similarly, Capt. Anurag explained the grey area that arose between India’s EEZ rights and Bangladesh’s CS rights as a result of the Arbitral Tribunal Award. He also presented the grey area between India and Myanmar that was created due to an overlap between the India versus Bangladesh tribunal award and the Bangladesh versus Myanmar ITLOS judgment. Following an analysis of the grey areas, Capt. Anurag mentioned that, in 2015, Bangladesh declared a set of four new basepoints that resulted in the southward shift of Bangladesh’s baseline reducing the India-Myanmar EEZ overlap area to nil. In the context of Bangladesh’s revision of basepoints, Capt. Anurag presented an assessment of India and Myanmar’s protests against the announcement. He noted that Bangladesh has not announced any alteration of the grey areas, the decisions rendered under the UNCLOS dispute resolution mechanisms are binding and that Bangladesh has reiterated its intention to follow arbitral awards.

Capt. Anurag then briefly addressed the practical consequences of the grey area and elucidated on the rights of India and Bangladesh for activities like scientific exploration and artificial installations in the grey area. In his discussion of the issue, Capt. Anurag also shed light on the dispute resolution mechanisms of the UNCLOS in such overlapping maritime claims. He pointed out that the UNCLOS does not provide clear mechanisms to resolve grey area disputes. It provides a cooperation-driven approach that places the burden of conduct on states. Capt. Anurag highlighted that bilateral cooperation continues to be the preferred approach for maritime resolutions and less than one per cent of disputes are settled through judicial decisions.

With this observation as the basis, Capt. Anurag moved to the next part of his presentation, which focused on cases of cooperative regimes in overlapping maritime claims from around the world. He began by presenting the case of Russia and Norway. In other examples, he presented cases from Denmark and the United Kingdom, France and Spain, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, Sudan and Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea, the Gulf of Thailand (comprising Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam) and Australia and Papua New Guinea. Capt. Bisen also briefly explored the cooperative arrangements in the South China Sea. He pointed out that, in 2018, China and the Philippines signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in oil and gas development in the relevant maritime areas. Similarly, China and Vietnam signed the Gulf of Tonkin Agreement in 2000. He highlighted that rival states with a larger area at stake have managed to configure cooperative solutions to handle overlapping claims. However, such cooperative arrangements continue to remain absent in South Asia. Capt Bisen also derived common features of these cooperative regime resolutions. These included factors such as political will, the spirit of cooperation, clear definition of the grey area, clarity on jurisdiction and sovereignty, creation of a formal agreement, mechanisms for environment protection, collective maritime security operations and a without prejudice clause.

In the next part of his presentation, Capt. Bisen addressed the benefits of resolving the grey area issue. He argued that a resolution will facilitate clarity in regulation and extensive use of respective maritime zones. It will also enhance investor confidence and strengthen maritime security in the Bay of Bengal region. He mentioned that the resolution will align with India’s maritime policies of SAGAR, ‘Neighborhood First’, and ‘Act East’ and facilitate regional cooperation under the BIMSTEC. More importantly, it will enable India to explore and exploit the Eastern ECS legally.

As part of his conclusion, Capt. Bisen presented a set of recommendations to resolve the issue. He highlighted that India and Bangladesh have shared robust bilateral relations, including maritime cooperation. He also pointed out that the grey area is minuscule and represents only a 0.00017th part of India’s 2.3 million sq.km. EEZ. While these factors may facilitate cooperation between India and Bangladesh, the grey area of 2059 sq. km. between Bangladesh and Myanmar could prove challenging to resolve.

He presented that India and Myanmar and India and Bangladesh could solve their respective issues in the first stage of resolution. He argued that the same template could then be employed to resolve the Bangladesh- Myanmar grey area issue. He also recommended the creation of a Joint Boundary Working Group led by the Ministry of External Affairs or Bangladesh’s inclusion in the existing group with India and Myanmar. He concluded with an emphasis on India’s role in resolving the issue and its collective benefits for security and development.

DISCUSSION

Following Capt. Anurag’s presentation, MP-IDSA scholars had the opportunity to provide their valuable inputs. Dr. Smruti raised questions with regard to Bangladesh’s objections at the CLCS. With references to individual political figures in Bangladesh, she stated that the grey area issue needs domestic contextualisation. She added that the issue is also interlinked to Myanmar’s complicated relationship with Bangladesh and its policies on the Rohingya refugees. In her remarks, Dr. Smruti highlighted that the grey area issue between India and Bangladesh also raises doubts on the ‘Blue Economy’ partnership between the two states. In response to her queries, Capt. Anurag answered that India’s submission at the CLCS can be processed only after Bangladesh and Myanmar withdraw their objections. He reiterated that the impact of the complex relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar can be countered by adopting a phase-by-phase bilateral discussion approach.

The discussion then shifted to Cmde. Abhay Singh who shared his personal experience on panel discussions with serving officers from Bangladesh. He highlighted the fundamental differences between grey areas and disputed areas. In addition, he made a query about the Joint Development MoUs in the South China Sea and their lack of implementation. Capt. Anurag stated that the purpose of using examples from the South China Sea region was to flag the absence of such agreements in South Asia.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan questioned the speaker about the possibility of India raising an appeal in the International Court of Justice against arbitrary decisions of the Tribunal. Capt. Anurag responded that while legally India may institute a fresh case under the ITLOS to seek its entitlements, it may not be viewed positively. He added that the 2014 Arbitral Tribunal verdict is final and binding.

Participating in the discussion, Dr. Gulbin Sultana raised a question on the status of Joint Development initiatives between India and Bangladesh and whether there are any discussions on artificial infrastructure installments between the two states. In his response, Capt. Anurag said that since both EEZ as well as Continental Shelf rights provide for installation of artificial structures, in the grey area, this might become a bone of contention. Lastly, Mr. Niranjan Oak raised a query on interlinkages of the Teesta Water agreement with the India- Bangladesh grey area issue.

The discussion ended with a vote of thanks by Dr. Smruti Pattanaik.

The report has been prepared by Ms Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Interaction with a Media Delegation from the Maldives May 27, 2022 Other

A media delegation from the Maldives, accompanied by Mr. Karan Yadav, First Secretary, Embassy of India, Male, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 27 May 2022, to have an interaction with the Institute. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA; Maj. Gen. (Dr). Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA; Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow; Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Research Fellow; Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow; Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow; and Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions.

Executive Summary

The interactive discussion primarily centered around the following issues– India’s neighbourhood policy under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, the historical and contemporary ties between India and the Maldives, and the increasing and predatory Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the littoral states.

Detailed Report

The event ensued with the Director General’s introductory remarks, welcoming the media delegation to the institute, where he recalled his most recent visit to their country in March 2020. He also mentioned the joint webinar organised by MP-IDSA in conjunction with the South East Asia Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism, Kuala Lumpur, that had taken place earlier that morning, titled “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia.” He also laid out a detailed outline of MP-IDSA’s objectives, mandate, research agenda and its existing infrastructure that facilitates research in diverse areas.

The Director General discussed the initiative he took during his stint at the National Security Council Secretariat, where exercise “Dosti,” between the coast guards of India and the Maldives was expanded to include Sri Lanka. He underlined that under Prime Minister Modi, India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” has gained prominence, and its commitment to Maldives has remained intact. India’s policy towards Maldives is based on historic socio-cultural ties that the two countries have shared. It does not have a predatory attitude in its assistance as displayed by some other countries.

Additionally, he emphasised how growth and prosperity have moved beyond the Asia-Pacific region to include South Asia and South-East Asia. Today, Bangladesh and, particularly the Maldives, are outperforming India in certain specific sectors. Due to its high standard of living and per capita income being higher than other countries in South Asia, the Maldives has done exceedingly well. Furthermore, it is at the confluence of vital sea channels through which a vast amount of global trade traverses. However, its dependence on tourism to generate revenue and its scattered geography have emerged as two crucial challenges for the island nation. Repatriation and rehabilitation of terrorist fighters returning from conflict zones, confronting foreign influences, and radicalisation are also some of the notable challenges it faces.

The Director General even underscored how major powers such as the United States of America, France, and the United Kingdom, have maintained their presence in the Indo-Pacific region in several ways, including through their military presence. Today, Russians are also displaying renewed interest and are engaged in bilateral and trilateral exercises. He also emphasised that the current President of the United Nations General Assembly, Abdulla Shahid, will significantly contribute to the international body due to his vast expertise and experience.

The following points emerged from the floor during discussion.

One of the central themes, specifically regarding growing Chinese influence, was taken up, and it was discussed whether or not that is a factor in determining the scale of India’s involvement in the region. It was concluded that India has always been focused on neighbourhood growth and prosperity irrespective of China's activities. Prime Minister Modi’s policy of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” reflects this. At the same time, one must understand that China’s rise is linked to its vast investments and is guided by its growing strategic interest. Its presence in the South Asian region contradicts its historical positioning and has only occurred over the past two decades. Therefore, China must be transparent about its investment and should not create a dependency-based relationship akin to Sri Lanka.

While India has reservations about Chinese actions, it does whatever it can to support its neighbours to chart an alternative path, including extending lines of credit without any strings attached. It has built a hospital in Malé and is currently involved in 45 projects in the country, largely micro projects, in contrast to China which is only involved in grander projects like the airport and port development. Another difference between the Indian and Chinese involvement is that while the former promotes inclusive and holistic growth, the latter can be characterised as predatory, aggressive, and fomenting divisiveness. Moreover, instead of cooperation with other countries, China has chosen the path of isolation.

In the western Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Chinese boats engage in illegal fishing in most months of the year. Therefore, the joint statement made by the QUAD partners in their recent summit even appealed to spread maritime awareness and halt illegal fishing, which has several ecological implications, including oil spills.

Moreover, China’s rise in the IOR has to be understood by the factors driving its strategy. Overarching trade interests, access to Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and ambition to mine crucial resources like Cobalt embedded in the sea bed, for which it has taken acreage down south, require its presence in and control of the oceanic spheres. Maritime piracy has allowed it to establish its naval domination and follow a neo-colonial approach. It is necessary to realise that it wants to de-link from the global supply chains and create dependency of the international community on the Chinese supply chains through such initiatives, thereby shaping the world in their likeness.

Transnational issues such as Islamist terrorism were also discussed. While this could be a challenge for India, it can become an existential threat for countries like Maldives due to the latter’s homogenous structure. As has been seen in the past, it becomes easier for non-state actors to stage a coup.

The participants also took up the matter of “India Out” campaign, directed against India. It was concluded that it is a highly politicised campaign and does not reflect popular sentiment. The Maldivians are unconcerned with who invests in the developmental sectors as long as it benefits them. However, it is critical to analyse where such propaganda is originating from and who is funding such activities. It was also noted that India has no interest in maintaining a military presence in the island nation. Any such presence visible has always been at the behest of the Maldivian government, including in 1988, when the Indian Armed Forces thwarted a coup led by Abdullah Luthufi against the then President Abdul Gayoom. Indians came to his aid faster than the Americans, whose nearest military base, Diego Garcia, is located 1000 kilometres away, in far closer proximity.

The session concluded with the possibility of future exchanges and a visit of the Indian delegation to the island country in the foreseeable future.

Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” June 13, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 13 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. P. K. Pradhan, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars, research analysts and interns of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

Since 2021, Turkish foreign policy approach towards the West Asian region has seen significant alterations. Turkey is now reconciling its relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict underline a degree of foreign policy recalibration.

The presentation highlighted the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy and focused on its reconciliation process towards the West Asian and North African region. While explaining the Turkish foreign policy recalibration, the speaker focused on the domestic, regional and international factors which have driven this change. 

Detailed Report

Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar started his presentation by giving an overview of Turkish foreign policy and defining the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These principles are neo-Ottomanism, pan-Islamism, strategic depth, zero-problem with neighbours and blue homeland. He further stated that Turkey’s approach towards the region contributed to geopolitical competition in the Middle East over the past decade. Following the principle of neo-Ottomanism and pan-Islamism, Erdogan has tried to achieve the glory of the Ottoman Empire and projected Turkey as a leader of the Islamic world. The doctrine of strategic depth asserts that Turkey should have greater influence in the areas around its borders and should expand its relations with the periphery. It also follows the zero-problem with neighbours policy which is part of its strategic depth doctrine. According to the speaker, the zero-problem with neighbours’ policy has proved to be a zero-friend policy for Turkey in West Asia. Turkey’s blue homeland policy focuses on Turkish influence in maritime domains, especially in the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. All these policies created a geopolitical quagmire in West Asia that got aggravated after the Arab Spring, where Turkey played a very crucial role as a major regional power in intensifying regional rivalries.  This led to serious problems between Turkey and regional countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Dr. Quamar said that since 2021 there has been a noticeable shift in Turkish foreign policy towards the region. While highlighting the shifts, he explained the changing relations of Turkey with Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen a certain degree of change.

With regard to the UAE, there have been important diplomatic visits between the two countries. In November 2021, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Turkey and this was reciprocated by President Erdogan’s visit to UAE in February 2022. The reconciliation process between Turkey and UAE has centred on deepening trade and economic relations, especially in the defence sector along with health, food security and climate change. Apart from economic issues, the two countries are also discussing regional issues of mutual interest, such as the situation in Libya and Syria.

Similarly, relations between Turkey and Israel have also been changing. Though Operation Cast Lead and the Mavi Marmara Incident caused deterioration in relations between the two countries, in the last few years engagement between them has improved. Both the countries are having an exchange of high-level visits such as, Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey in March 2022. According to Dr. Quamar, the focus of these engagements is on improving energy, trade and economic ties. However, the Palestinian issues and Turkish indirect support to Hamas can be an issue of friction. Due to this reason, one cannot be certain about the success of the process of reconciliation between Israel and Turkey.

According to Dr. Quamar, another important development from the Turkish foreign policy point of view has been the reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Both are trying to move ahead from the Khashoggi crisis that adversely impacted relations between the two. This reconciliation process also highlights that Turkey is ready to end the isolation of Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud from regional and international politics. Turkish foreign policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia has also been driven by economic factors. However, the speaker observed that there are issues which can derail the reconciliation process, namely, the competition between the two for global Islamic leadership. 

Egypt is another regional country with whom Turkey is in the process of reconciliation. Though, unlike aforementioned countries, no major visits have taken place between Egypt and Turkey, but at delegation level both are engaging with each other. According to Dr. Quamar, Turkey’s guidelines for the domestic Muslim Brotherhood linked media houses to tone down their criticism of President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and Egypt, is an important development with regard to reconciliation with Egypt.

Though, Dr. Quamar underlined the uncertainty about whether Turkey will completely abandon the Muslim Brotherhood or not, he said that Ankara has shown willingness to be more accommodative towards the concerns of regional countries such as, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt which are sensitive about giving space to Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, similar to other countries, economic ties are a major point of focus of Turkish reconciliation with Egypt.

While discussing the reasons for Turkish foreign policy recalibration, Dr. Quamar said that there are domestic, regional and international factors for this policy. However, the most important ones are domestic factors.  The Turkish economy is going through a difficult time wherein inflation in the country has increased by 70 per cent. There has been a drop in the value of Lira and a rise in poverty. In addition, the country has also witnessed a decline in tourism and exports. Politically, it is the first time that the Turkish opposition is feeling confident in challenging Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The results of the 2019 municipal elections underlined that Erdogan’s support base is also shrinking. However, Dr. Quamar said that this might not be sufficient to replace Erdogan. According to him, another domestic political reason for recalibration is Turkey’s 2023 elections.

While discussing the regional and international factors, Dr. Quamar said that  the Abraham Accords (2020) have broken Turkish exceptionalism, because Turkey was the only country which had good relations with Israel, despite having diplomatic issues. According to him, the Abraham Accords which have initiated a regional process of normalisation of ties between Israel and the Gulf countries, might be a major reason for alteration in Turkey’s foreign policy. Furthermore, the end of GCC crises after the Al Ula Declaration contributed in changing its foreign policy approach. According to Dr. Quamar, there have been regional dialogues and talks such as those between Iran-Saudi Arabia, UAE-Syria and Egypt-Qatar. It seems Turkey is also following these regional trends. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis and change of administration in the US are other factors for alteration in Turkey’s approach towards the region.

While discussing the implications, Dr. Quamar said it is difficult to say whether these recalibration efforts will ease regional tensions or they will sustain. He finally noted that the Turkish foreign policy approach provides India a window of opportunity in the economic and political domains. 

In his remarks, Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) said that Turkey has the ambition of becoming the regional power and asked how is Turkey’s foreign policy recalibration relevant for the Indian subcontinent, and what could be the implications for India, of Turkey’s forays in South Asia. He also underlined the wider global churn going on with regard to developments vis-à-vis China and Russia that might also be impacting Turkish behaviour.

Important Points Made in the Q&A Session

  • Turkey wants to emerge as a major defence exporter. In the many regional conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine-Russia and the Libyan conflict it has been a major supplier of drones and other equipment which has played an important role in its emergence as a defence power house in the region and beyond.
  • Turkey sees Muslim countries as part of its area of influence and recalibration in Turkish foreign policy does not change the guiding principles of its foreign policy.
  • Geo-economics plays an influential role in Turkey-Iran relations. When it comes to the West Asian region, there are some overlaps in the approaches of both the countries wherein both want to enhance economic relations. However, Northern Syria and Northern Iraq remain areas of friction in their relations. With regard to the Kurdish issue, there is convergence in the approach of the two countries.
  • With regard to Ukraine-Russia conflict, Turkey continues to project itself as a mediator country. It has criticised Russia but it has not joined the US and Western camp.
  • With respect to Finland and Sweden's willingness to join North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey is not likely to relent in its opposition until the two countries recognise the security threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered a terror group by Ankara.
  • Regarding Africa, Turkey has been following the policy of reaching out to the African countries especially to those in North Africa, the Horn of Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. This policy is unlikely to see any reversal.
  • Turkey-India relations are still stuck in the Cold War paradigm and have not progressed. The strengthening of economic ties has contributed to Indo-Gulf and Indo-Iranian reconciliation. Similarly, enhanced economic engagement can help overcome the hurdles in improving India-Turkey ties.
Eurasia & West Asia Turkey, Foreign Policy
Report on “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia” MP-IDSA – SEARCCT Joint Webinar May 27, 2022 Other

The joint webinar on radicalisation in India and Malaysia was held on 27 May 2022 and was organised by MP-IDSA and SEARCCT, Malaysia. The Director-General MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Director-General SEARCCT, Ambassador Dato’ Ganeson Sivagurunathan delivered the opening remarks and chaired respective sessions of the programme. During the first session, Dr. Ahmad El-Muhammady Bin Muhammad Uthman El-Muhammady spoke on “Radicalisation in Malaysia.” He was succeeded by Mr. Supt Loo Chee Lum who spoke on “Capacity Building Programmes,” and Ms. Pa Arul Malar Palaniveloo who talked about “Youth & P/CVE - Counter Messaging, Social Media and Outreach.” During the second session, Shri Pradeep Gautam delivered his remarks on “The Threat of Religious Ideological Extremism in the Indian Subcontinent,” followed by Dr. Adil Rasheed who spoke on “India’s Counter Radicalisation: Measures and Programmes,” and Ms. Shruti Pandalai who spoke on “Combating Radicalisation in the Social Media: The Indian Experience.” India’s High Commissioner to Malaysia Shri B.N. Reddy also gave his comments which was followed by an interactive Q&A session. The webinar was concluded with closing remarks from the Deputy Director-General at MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and Deputy Director-General at SEARCCT, Ambassador Khairi Omar.

Executive Summary:

The session was helpful in bringing forth the issue of radicalisation and its impact from an inter-regional perspective. The speakers shared their insights on the nature of radicalisation in India and Malaysia which would be vital in developing counter strategies that address these specific areas. Despite robust programs in both countries on counter terrorism and counter radicalisation, it was agreed that regular updating with the evolving discourse is essential, and corresponding training of the personnel is therefore necessary. The issue of online radicalisation and role of technology both as a challenge and as a tool to fight radicalisation was elaborated upon. It was agreed that novel ways of reaching to the public by extremist groups will necessitate innovative ways by the governments in countering such narratives. Therefore, Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) will be an evolving methodology that grows in response to the tactics adopted by the extremist and radical groups.

Detailed Report:

Ambassador Chinoy began the session with his opening remarks and underscored the good relations between India and Malaysia, along with their shared concern over terrorism which has also impacted economic growth. He spoke of the increasing threat of terror groups’ access to Weapons of Mass Destruction and how that has worried governments. After the success of Taliban in Afghanistan, terrorist groups across the world have been emboldened. Ambassador Chinoy outlined the efforts India has made on working on legislation to curb terrorism, border management and elaborated on the impetus given to appropriate training of its law enforcement personnel to tackle such terrorist threats. India has also engaged with multilateral institutions and the UN to create frameworks on curbing terrorism, including pushing for a comprehensive global convention on terrorism.

Ambassador Sivagurunathan welcomed the speakers and participants, and highlighted issues of violent extremism in his address. Speaking on the shared interests of India and Malaysia on countering violent extremism, he hoped the two countries could find useful ways of working together to solve this problem. He outlined his nation’s experience, crediting law enforcement agencies working tirelessly to resolve the issues of terrorism and radicalisation with considerable investment of time and resources. Emphasising that it is important to collaborate on these issues with like-minded partners from across the borders, he   stressed that within the country too help from the private sector should be sought to disseminate counter narratives of the government.

In the first session featuring Malaysian speakers, Dr. El-Muhammady began his presentation and familiarised the audience with internalisation of radical ideas and its impact. He underlined that an individual may internalise these ideas but problems arise when they translate it into violent actions. In his talk, he emphasised that terrorism may be related to the cultural and religious framework in a society. In Malaysia, the criteria to view terrorism has been defined by the law, mainstream Islamic values, and universal values. Since Malaysian society is multi-racial, multi-ethnic, and multi-religious, it has led to more vulnerabilities. A highly diverse population which consists of indigenous bhoomiputras, Indians, Chinese and non-Malaysians who follow different religions is a ground for extremist groups to propagate their ideology and violence. With globalisation, the influx of foreign ideas and values has also led to increase in radicalisation. Social media is the newest platform for widespread dissemination of radical ideas, which is often not monitored by enforcement authorities, due to problems of locating the source. Malaysia has faced the challenge of radicalisation since colonial times and the communist insurgency. The long term strategy therefore should be developing public awareness and outreach apart from kinetic approaches like detention. Radicalisation is a subtle phenomenon which can keep growing beneath the surface. It requires being vigilant on a more comprehensive level he argued.

Mr. Loo Chee Lum familiarised the audiences with SEARCCT’s capacity building programmes to counter terrorism. He highlighted that they adopt a multi-faceted approach through various training conferences, workshops, and forums. He outlined the many webinars conducted by the institute even during the COVID-19 Pandemic, including with the Australian High Commission and with Sarawak Information Systems. These programs are focused on engaging different stakeholders to curb terrorism and radicalisation in the society.

Ms. Palaniveloo spoke about the Digital Strategic Communications Division at SEARCCT. She outlined how the division develops youth campaigns focusing on creating content like video campaigns which aim at engaging the young people in society. These generally include influencers and inspirational examples from society. The team also talks to detainees as well as people in rehabilitation to understand different perspectives that they include in the content they create. She highlighted the special attention given to rural areas in the campaigns which are designed to ensure relatability of people in specific areas. They do this by including colloquial phrases of the local language which appeal to this audience. The division lays special stress not only on how technology plays a role in spread of radicalisation, but also how it can be used to fight radicalisation. COVID-19 has compelled many things to go online, which means that extremist groups have also increased their activity online and therefore require quicker responses she argued.

The second session featured speakers from the Indian side. Shri Gautam’s presentation focused on the Indian subcontinent, which he argued is faced with multiple challenges of radicalisation but there are some commonalities. Radicalisation in Maldives is increasingly becoming a concern as Salafi influence has been increasing. The funding and education in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has been the major factor for this increased radicalisation. In India, there has been left wing extremism and right wing mobilisation but the proportion of persons involved in these activities is very small, he argued. He elaborated upon how: Ahl-e-Hadis, Deobandis, Barelvis, Jamaat-e-Islami are some prominent ideological groups in India, of which some sections have been known to propagate extremist ideas.

Dr. Rasheed during his talk highlighted that Indian Muslims follow a number of Islamic schools of thought. The threat of radicalisation, therefore, is also of different types. Apart from Salafi Jihadism which has been recognised around the world as an extremist ideology, there has been consistent threat from Pakistan based extremist terror groups operating in India such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. A third type is the indigenous terror groups but their impact should not be underestimated. He made the case that the difference in language used by all these groups is an important distinction in the kind of access they gain among Indian public. While ISIS based propaganda is global and often in English, it may have limited reach among Indian masses but Pakistan based radical groups use Urdu language and social media. He outlined how indigenous groups use vernacular languages and stress on a communal angle in their propaganda. The Indian Government has given certain leeway to state governments in devising and running their own counter-radicalisation programs. He inferred that Western programs in that context do not work in India, as Indian Muslims are not racially different from the mainstream population, unlike the case in the West, where they mostly seek to assimilate immigrant and refugee populations. Maharashtra’s de-radicalisation program has received praise and Mumbai police has been able to de-radicalise hundreds of citizens. Such programs have also been quite successful in Kerala. The Jihadist threat in the eastern and southern Indian regions such as in states of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu respectively, can be tracked to radicalisation originating from Southeast Asia. Thus, India’s cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, to counter this threat is important.

Ms. Pandalai during her presentation, spoke about the information ecosystem in India and how radical groups may use the grey areas to their advantage and challenges for government agencies in India. She argued that there are more than 400 million social media users in India who are vulnerable to fake news, as their primary source of news consumption may be from unverified sources including applications like WhatsApp. Given the scale of socioeconomic challenges in India, technology can both empower and create law and order challenges, proving to be a double-edged sword in this context. She outlined how India has to grapple with the multiple challenges of communally stoked law and order issues, online radicalisation and cross-border terrorism, all amplified by social media and demonstrated that in many cases these are not mutually exclusive. For instance, fake news and disinformation in social media has caused many incidences of violence in India. In 2016, ISIS had directly used social media to target Indian Muslims by exploiting issues of Kashmir, nostalgia of the Mughal era, and the Babri Masjid demolition. The worrisome fact is that according to the National Investigation Agency, educated youth are getting drawn to this kind of propaganda, which may even lead to lone wolf attacks. The case of Burhan Wani in Kashmir is a classic example of the impact of social media and how it can recruit young men into activities of radicalisation. Ms. Pandalai outlined responses from the Indian Government including the rich experiences of the military in Kashmir which has been running de-radicalisation programs for many decades and has involved local population and clergy successfully. However, she argued that challenges remain as internet shutdown as response to social media triggered crises has caused problems for local communities and more needs to be done to bridge the trust deficit between social media platforms and government agencies. There is also a need for more sensitisation at the ground level to build confidence among local citizens and involve them in these outreach activities which use social media as a tool for engagement. Exchanging best practices with partner countries is the way ahead in improving our counter-radicalisation programs.

After the sessions were concluded, the floor was opened for questions and answers. In response to a query, Dr. El-Muhammady told the audiences that the Malaysian Government was initially reluctant to accept the Malaysian foreign fighters who had gone to fight alongside ISIS in Syria, but given legal obligations and ethical considerations, it decided to later accept them in a phased manner. This has been done through inter-agency cooperation at an international level, and a number of returnees have been accepted. A three-level assessment of the returnees is mandatory, involving security and psychological analysis, to determine if they maybe a threat to Malaysian society. The individual may be prosecuted or rehabilitated depending upon the result. On the issue of women and their role in online radicalisation, he said that there has been an increase in participation of women, notably those propagating ISIS content online. To counter this problem, the Malaysian Government has included more women in its counter-radicalisation programs like Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). Dr. Rasheed, to a query about counter narratives, told the audience that it may not be possible to assess in empirical terms how counter narratives are affecting the population. But given the huge amount of resources extremist groups invest in spreading radicalisation, it is imperative that effort to create and sustain counter-narratives is maintained. He also added that the Indian population does not resonate much with the Bangladeshi school of Islamic thought but there is formidable threat from Pakistan based radical groups.

Shri B.N. Reddy, H. E. High Commissioner of India to Malaysia, joined the conversation and  expressed his pleasure at the successful conduct of the session and hoped there would be more discussions in the future between MP-IDSA and SEARCCT. He expressed gratitude to both the Institutes working to promote de-radicalisation efforts.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi (Retd.) offered closing remarks for the session. He underlined that foreign influences have caused disharmony among ethnicities and diverse communities of both the countries, which had peacefully co-existed before globalisation. It is important to prevent vulnerable sections of our population from falling prey to the radicalisation propaganda. The security apparatus in both countries have evolved unique counter strategies to deal with this problem. He shared his personal experience of being in the National Security Guard where he was involved in capacity building measures. He emphasised that international cooperation to counter radicalisation is very important given the trans-national nature of this threat. He also stressed that terror financing in particular must receive more attention as an area of study. He thanked the Director-Generals and Speakers from both the Institutes for their comments and the Participants for their contribution to the discussion. He expressed gratitude to the High Commissioner, Ms. Nair, Mr. Vardhan, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania at MP-IDSA, SEARCCT Malaysia and the technical team in putting the event together. Ambassador Omar in his closing remarks expressed that efforts in understanding radicalisation and developing counter strategy and counter narratives are crucial to maintaining peace and security in our societies. He added that the policy of engaging more people in this activity of countering extremist propaganda can be very useful and it can help build confidence among the people for each government’s efforts in tackling this problem.

The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-IDSA.

Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Revisiting the Cyber Aspects of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict June 06, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, in the Strategic Technologies Centre at the Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Revisiting the the Cyber Aspects of the Russia- Ukraine Conflict” at the Monday morning meeting held on 6 June 2022.  The session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA.  Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in the attendance.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Over the past couple of months, the world has witnessed that conventional warfare has a brother in arms – namely cyber warfare. Microsoft’s report dated 27 April 2022 clearly underlined the extent of cyber attacks on Ukrainian soil. The effects of this are temporarily debilitating but it is bound to leave a permanent mark on the military strategy of any aggressor country in the years to come.

DETAILED REPORT

Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, the moderator, during his opening remarks, introduced the attendees to the capability of Russian cyber malware to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. He also added that, this does not pertain only to the Russian-Ukraine war but every warfare has a cyber element present in it.

Dr. Cherian Samuel started with explaining why he chose the phrase revisiting the cyber aspects of the Russian- Ukrainian conflict. He mentioned that it was initially thought that the cyber element would take centre stage. He also opined that it was thought that the 2017 malware attack would provide lessons for the attackers which had resulted in gargantuan global financial losses and would, in turn, ensure that the extent of the attack stays localised. The software companies and cyber security providers were also staying ahead of the game this time around, providing patches and fixing software vulnerabilities.

Dr. Cherian elucidated the developments that took place over the three months after the war began. Different types of attacks ranging from espionage, data extraction, denial of services, phishing scams were meted out on the Ukrainians. A range of malwares to cripple the critical infrastructure were also deployed. He stressed upon the fact that the victims were not limited to only the Ukrainians but the spill over effects affected multiple governments, private enterprises and individuals.

The first of the big attacks took place on 24 February 2022 on the Viasat modems, where the malware erased every trace of data and affected the satellite internet rendering them inoperable. It is also the first example where synchronisation between kinetic warfare and cyber warfare was witnessed. The ripples of this cyber-attack were felt across Europe with 2000 German windfarms losing communications and internet service disruption was seen in Europe. Media companies and outlets were in the crosshairs of this synchronised attack campaign and on 1 March 2022, missiles struck Kyiv TV tower. Adding to the woes was the attempt to take down the electrical grid which was eventually thwarted by the Ukrainian cyber defence on 8 April 2022.

Dr. Cherian shed some light on the 27 April 2022 Microsoft report highlighting the evolving pattern of attacks, the unsavoury alliance of kinetic and cyber-attacks and the key Russian players involved both offline and online, such as GRU, SVR, FSB amongst other players as reported in the Microsoft study. Despite these cyber attack perpetrators remaining in the shadows, their impeccable coordination is noteworthy.

Another aspect which Dr.Cherian pointed out was the hostile reaction from Ukrainians towards the Russians. Some examples cited were the anonymous hacking of the Russian Ministry of Defence database and media outlets, releasing names of the Russian Army personnel who were involved in the warfare and Ukraine’s defence intelligence service penetrating the Beloyarsk Nuclear Plant. He also expanded on the statement of the US Head of Cyber Command, given to Sky News, on the US carrying out multi-pronged operations in this campaign, bolstering the Ukrainian side.

Dr. Cherian brought forth another critical question of why the news of Russian cyber salvo against the Ukrainians has been muted. Multiple reasons were cited namely, improvement in Ukrainian cyber defences, one time use nature of these attacks, Russia’s hesitancy to augment collateral damage, amongst other reasons. According to him, if less attention is paid to the extent of the collateral damages and no attempt to limit them is made then, these cyber attacks seem to have a higher chance of success.

Certain pointers were given by Dr. Cherian namely, cyber attack no longer being an attacker’s game, enhanced improvement in the coordination between the government and private actors, US cyber infrastructure operating in exile, in a manner of speaking, amongst other things. In his concluding remarks he made the observation that the US’ explicit declaration of cyber attacks was an attempt to move the needle further on legitimising such actions, to which the Russians did not have an adequate response since they have eschewed having equivalent structures, to maintain plausible deniability.

DISCUSSION

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi stated that the Russians were the first to recognise the criticality of information warfare to  national security and cited the 2015 Russian National Security Strategy document to shed light on the centrality of this aspect. He also brought into attention the Crimean campaign and the extensive use of information warfare which was in turn meticulously studied by countries like UK and the USA. The US cyber command was given the status of a combatant command by the USA and the UK’s 77th brigade was turned into an information manoeuvre organisation as information is the lifeblood of the battlefield. He also highlighted the underplaying of the Russian cyber salvo by the media and the synchronisation between kinetic and cyber warfare domain. As a part of his closing remarks, he stressed upon the prospects of lessons for India in both in the defensive and offensive domain.

Krutika Patil highlighted the fact that the cyber conflict did not live up to the hype. One crucial aspect, according to her, is the role of non-state actors and their unbridled jurisdiction and the state’s inability to counter them. She raised the question whether there was a deliberate attempt to not put these non-state actors in check.

Dr. Swasti Rao shed some light on the series of patterns that can be witnessed in Russia’s Baltic States’ destabilisation attempts as the former are a part of the NATO. She also stated the fact that apart from the USA’s role in bolstering the Ukrainian campaign against the Russians, EU’s role cannot be ignored. They are equally important in the grand scheme of things. Her final observation was on the Russian cyber attack being muted. The reasons she stated for this were the Western backlash and the non availability of a justification for such an asymmetric conflict.

Captain Anurag Bisen raised questions pertaining to non-state actors and private companies and the push towards ‘atmanirbharta’ when it comes to interoperability between the state and the private companies keeping in mind the exiling of Ukrainian ministries to the cloud space within days.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan had put forward the question of the assessment of cyber damages to the Ukrainian side. He stated that the USA and other Western powers’ main talking points revolve around Russia and no considerable damage was seen in Ukraine. He further elaborated by mentioning the US defence report wherein cyber attack was labelled as a hyped threat, as multiplicity of firewalls would prevent any attack on the critical infrastructure. Questions on the nature of cyber threat being a hype or not, and limitations of cyber attacks were raised.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Stephen Koshy James, Intern, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, MP-IDSA.

Non-Traditional Security Cyber Security, Russia-Ukraine Relations

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