Dr. M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, spoke on “US-China Summit:  Key Issues and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 01 June 2026.  The Session was moderated by Dr. Abhishek Kumar Darbey, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA. The Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The presentation aimed to analyse the US- China Summit that took place between 13 May and 14 May 2026. Contextualising the Summit by underlining the critical areas of rare earth minerals, market access, and trade imbalance, Dr. Prathiibha explored the deepening US-China competition and its international ramifications through the lens of the Summit. The Speaker further expanded on the changing nature of the United States’ policy toward China, marked by a shift away from a strategic partnership to attempts at strategic stability, driven in part by the limited success of efforts to decouple from the Chinese market ecosystem.

Detailed Report

The meeting started with Opening Remarks from the moderator, Dr. Abhishek Kumar Darbey, who underscored the importance of the Summit, which marks President Donald Trump’s return to China after a nine-year gap. Tracing the evolution of US- China relations, the moderator divided them into three distinct phases: ice-breaking, competition, and containment. Against this historical background, multiple instances of outbreaks of trade wars and tariff imposition, interspersed with periods of thaw and continued economic engagement, have underlined the limitations of tariffs as instruments for correcting trade imbalances. These developments have led to the acknowledgement of the deep interdependence and complexity of contemporary global supply chains. It is in this background that the Summit emerges. The moderator pointed to a new emerging shift in the US policy toward China, which moves away from the earlier idea of strategic partnership. Instead, there is an acknowledgment of the existence of both competition and differences, while there is a simultaneous attempt to establish firm boundaries.

Dr. Prathibha began by laying the background of the US-China Summit, which, according to the Speaker, is taking place in a much broader context. According to the Speaker, the Donald Trump Presidency came about with a promise of following a different China policy as compared to previous administrations, given the belief that the old liberal order was not benefiting the US and that there would be an imposition of trade tariffs and a limitation to technological cooperation. There is also the matter of the interim trade deal and the following truce in 2020. The above back and forth can be traced to 2018, when an investigation by US agencies took place, which looked into Chinese dealings of forced technology transfer.

According to Dr. Prathibha, China’s response to tariff imposition was limited in the beginning, but over time, as more and more tariffs were imposed by the US, China also began to increase tariffs. Retaliatory tariffs initially targeted a narrow set of commodities, such as wine, ethanol, and sorghum, but later expanded to encompass larger and more strategically important sectors. This to and fro continued throughout 2018 and 2019. It was only after the Phase One trade deal that some relief was evident, if only for some time. Post 2020, however, we see a major shift in China’s negotiation strategy. Dr. Prathibha states that this was due to China’s ability to leverage its dominance in rare earth minerals. Additionally, the COVID pandemic added much stress on the Chinese economy, leading to an increase in technological competition with the US, and eventually integrated it more firmly with the high-tech value chain in the international order.

Dr. Prathibha explained that it was in this complex background that the Summit took place. On the part of the US, President Trump declared the visit to be a huge success. He stated that China had agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets, along with additional agricultural products. China has, in turn, pushed for greater inclusion into advanced tech, along with an agreement to expand cooperation in trade, agriculture, healthcare, and tourism. Both nations agreed to base their relationship on strategic stability, moving in the same direction and effectively managing differences. It was acknowledged that Taiwan presents a challenge in this regard and has the potential to rupture the tentative relationship between the US and China, with the Speaker further noting that the Summit underlines the incompatibility of the Taiwan issue with ideas of strategic stability.

According to Dr. Pratibha, this Summit also displays the broader technological competition/cooperation between the US and China, as seen by the US and China meeting on Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the sidelines of the Summit. It showcased China’s desire for further and greater cooperation on AI with the US, but also the US’s apprehension regarding cooperation that could lead to less control over chips and manufacturing. In this regard, the US has already imposed trade restrictions on certain Chinese tech companies, such as Nvidia.  Thus, China wishes to ensure its economic and technological development is not derailed, while the US desires continued access to Chinese critical minerals but remains wary of China’s growing technological dominance. Trade talks, according to the Speaker, reflect a pause in great-power competition, allowing the US to build its manufacturing strategy while enabling China to continue developing its technological capabilities. This pause also reflects a growing realisation in the US that while competition between the two exists, the presence of US companies in China is highly beneficial, as their success in the Chinese market helps sustain innovation and technological development at home.

While concluding, Dr. Prathibha highlighted that while China has largely managed to withstand US pressure through diversification strategies, these efforts have not been without costs, particularly in the form of capital outflows. Moreover, China continues to depend on access to US markets and technology firms, while trade imbalances underscore the continued dependence of the US on Chinese supply chains. Despite the interdependence of the two economies, the Summit should not be interpreted as a thaw in bilateral relations. Previous episodes of detente, including the Phase One trade deal, were accompanied by continued tariff disputes. The long-term significance of the Summit will depend largely on whether the US relaxes its export-control measures and, more broadly, on the extent to which both sides implement the commitments made. Given the unpredictability that now characterises US policy under President Trump, the durability of these agreements remains uncertain.

Comments and Questions

Following the presentation, scholars posed a multitude of questions. One scholar inquired about China’s growing confidence, questioning the sources of this confidence and its potential implications for the future trajectory of US–China relations. In response, the Speaker pinned this confidence, in part, to the confidence displayed by President Xi Jinping with regard to the Chinese economy. By 2015, China had already prepared a blueprint on how to leapfrog forward in terms of technology, with structural reforms already taking place. While this plan was not altogether successful, over a span of a decade, it has allowed China substantial growth, which in turn has allowed it to challenge the US.

Another scholar asked how ongoing geopolitical developments are being perceived by the United States and China. According to the Speaker, the position of the US and its support of Israel in West Asia can be seen, in part, as opposition to China. On the other hand, for China, the War in West Asia is seen as an attempt to interfere in global energy chains. It is due to this that the Gulf region has transformed into a delicate balancing act for China. Thus, while Iran remains an important ally, Gulf nations take priority, given China’s attempts to secure its energy supply.

Another question inquired about the tech entourage that arrived in China along with Donald Trump. It was followed up with a question about the possibility of Chinese weaponry being deployed in Iran. In response, Dr. Prathibha remarked that the presence of tech founders signifies the US’s continued desire for Chinese market access. This stems mainly from the fact that American companies remain highly dependent upon Chinese joint production and the current impossibility of divesting from both the joint ecosystem and the Chinese market. With regard to the deployment of Chinese weaponry in the West Asia conflict, the Speaker held that one cannot go beyond speculation for now.

The Report has been prepared by Ms. Anveshi Bisht, Intern, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.