Dr. Hirak Jyoti Das, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Israel–Hezbollah Conflict: The Path Ahead” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 11 May 2026. Dr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, moderated the meeting. The scholars of the Institute participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The presentation examined the changing dynamics of the Israel–Hezbollah conflict by analysing the strategic interests of Hezbollah, Israel, and the Lebanese Government within Lebanon’s confessional political system and the evolving geopolitical landscape in West Asia. It highlighted Hezbollah’s political–military role, challenges surrounding disarmament, Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon, and the fragile nature of regional diplomacy amid recurring escalation.

Detailed Report

Dr. Abhishek Yadav, the Moderator, laid out the context, tracing the emergence of Hezbollah in 1982 during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, its evolution into one of the West Asia’s most formidable non-state armed groups, and its deepening ties with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He noted that Hezbollah’s military intervention in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad after the Arab Spring greatly expanded its regional footprint. Within this long-standing framework, after the outbreak of the Gaza War in October 2023, Hezbollah intensified its operations along the Israel–Lebanon border, leading to a prolonged military campaign by Israel  that resulted in the killing of Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 and a US-brokered ceasefire in November 2024. Dr. Yadav further stated that the relative calm collapsed in March 2026 following US-Israeli military operations against Iran, triggering a renewed phase of conflict that ended with a temporary ceasefire on 16 April 2026, with a third round of US-hosted negotiations scheduled in Washington on 14-15 May 2026.

Dr. Hirak Jyoti Das outlined the priorities of the principal stakeholders in the conflict, namely Hezbollah, Israel and the Lebanese Government, evaluating the likely future trajectory of the confrontation. The Speaker explained that Lebanon follows a confessional political system based on sectarian representation among the recognised religious communities. He talked about the demographic composition of different sectarian groups, including Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze, and other communities, and noted that the system has institutionalised sectarian loyalty, patronage networks, and feudal political structures.

Dr. Das traced the emergence of Hezbollah during the Lebanese civil war in 1982 and noted that Hezbollah was exempted from disarmament under the 1989 Taif Accord. Over time, Hezbollah became a hybrid political-military actor often characterised as a “state within a state”. He examined how repeated attempts to disarm Hezbollah failed due to Iranian and Syrian support, Israel’s ongoing occupation of disputed areas such as Shebaa Farms, and the limited military capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

The Speaker analysed Hezbollah’s military role after Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. Hezbollah launched rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel to showcase support for the Palestinian cause and pursued a strategy of limited attritional warfare. Dr. Das discussed Israel’s “Operation Northern Arrows” between September and November 2024, during which Israel intensified military operations against Hezbollah through extensive airstrikes, intelligence operations, and targeted assassinations, killing a large number of Secretary Generals, including Hassan Nasrallah. The subsequent ceasefire enabled Israel to establish strategic positions and security zones within southern Lebanon.

Dr. Das noted that the Lebanese Government under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has prioritised state sovereignty, economic reforms, and reconstruction of southern Lebanon, while simultaneously trying to reduce Hezbollah’s military role. LAF however faces serious institutional, logistical and financial constraints that limit their capacity to implement nationwide disarmament. The Speaker also pointed out that while the United States (US) continues to be the main external backer of LAF, Washington tailors its military aid to ensure that it does not undermine Israel’s military dominance in the region.

The Speaker highlighted Hezbollah’s rejection of nationwide disarmament, arguing that all discussions regarding weapons should remain an internal Lebanese matter upon the complete withdrawal of Israel’s forces and cessation of Israel’s military activities within Lebanon. Dr. Das noted that post-November 2024 ceasefire, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes inside Lebanon, providing Hezbollah justification for preserving its arsenal.

The Speaker analysed the renewed escalation that began in March 2026 with US-Israeli operations against Iran. Hezbollah resumed military activity, claiming it was part of a broader regional resistance strategy. According to Dr. Das, the group’s military focus has shifted from deep strikes into north Israel to drone and anti-tank missiles attacks on Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) positions in south Lebanon. Israel seeks to further degrade Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, undermine its domestic legitimacy and cut its strategic ties to Iran. A key point of disagreement was the creation of a ‘security zone’ extending to the Litani River, causing large-scale displacement and risking the revitalisation of Hezbollah’s legitimacy as a resistance force.

In summary, the Speaker argued that the conflict is likely to remain stuck in a cycle of reciprocal military operations, limited penetration and fragile ceasefires. Hezbollah’s political survival hinges on its ability to keep its resistance credentials alive, and Israel is committed to preserving strategic deterrence and security control in south Lebanon. Sustainable peace would require gradual security arrangements, stronger Lebanese State institutions and meaningful regional diplomacy, noting that ongoing regional rivalries and repeated ceasefire violations continue to undermine prospects for long-term stability.

Q&A Session

Participants raised questions regarding Hezbollah’s ability to sustain its military strength despite the Lebanese Government’s engagement with Western actors and negotiations with Israel. Questions were also raised regarding the wider regional geopolitical dynamics shaping the conflict, Hezbollah’s military adaptation, drone capabilities, and supply routes.

The Speaker provided comprehensive responses to all comments and questions raised during the Session.

The Report was prepared by Mr. Aquib Mohd. Khan, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.