Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Japan’s New Prime Minister: Impact on Domestic and Foreign Policy” during the Monday Morning Meeting held on 3 November 2025. Ms. Simran Walia, Research Analyst at MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General of MP-IDSA, attended the meeting along with scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

The session examined the political transition in Japan following the appointment of the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and its implications for the country’s domestic politics, economy, and foreign policy. Dr. Dasgupta analysed the internal dynamics within Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the factors that led to the succession by Sanae Takaichi, the challenges facing the new leadership, and the broader continuity and changes expected in Japan’s foreign relations. The discussion focused on Japan’s evolving approach towards India, the United States, South Korea, and China,while also considering the implications of Japan’s domestic policies. The subsequent interaction addressed questions related to party realignments and Japan’s relations with other major powers.

Detailed Report

Ms. Simran Walia, during her remarks, set the context by highlighting that the leadership transition in Japan represents both continuity and change within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). She noted that Ms. Sanae Takechi was elected by defeating her closest rival, Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), and this election also followed the end of the LDP-Komeito coalition. Takaichi secured a coalition agreement with the Japan Innovation Party and was elected by the Diet. Her rise to power signals both continuity with Japan’s traditional LDP platform and a decisive break towards a more self-reliant and security-focused Japan. Ms. Walia also underscored that domestically, Takaichi faces the challenges of revitalising the economy amidst the pressures of inflation and technological competition while also pursuing reforms to enhance innovation and defence industrial capacity. Internationally, she is expected to strengthen Japan’s alliances with the United States, India, and Australia, while maintaining a firm stance towards China and North Korea. Ms. Walia underscored that Takaichi’s leadership could redefine Japan’s balance between economic resilience and strategic autonomy, positioning the country as a more proactive player in an increasingly uncertain global model. At the same time, she will face specific challenges during her tenure.

Dr Arnab Dasgupta began his presentation by explaining the life and career of Sanae Takaichi. He highlighted former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s influence on Takaichi and explained Takaichi’s stint as the head of the LDP’s policy research council and her ministerial positions in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Security under Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida.

The Speaker talked about Sanae Takaichi’s new cabinet and the ministers. Dr. Dasgupta highlighted three factors about the Takaichi election. Firstly, he highlighted that that she was not elected, but rather selected. She is an internal party candidate who has not yet secured a popular mandate because there have been no general elections.  So, it is unknown how long her popularity will last if she seeks a policy mandate from the public. At the same time, polls currently report that she has the highest levels of public support.

Secondly, Takaichi’s party is currently in a minority in both houses of the Diet, and her best chance is essentially to go slow and prolong her tenure, to the point where circumstances are favourable enough that she may decide to dissolve the houses of the Diet and seek a popular mandate. Dr. Dasgupta also pointed out that it is doubtful that her efforts for the reinterpretation of Article 9 and the second capital status for Osaka may be in the offing. Her key priority will be to maintain care and balance. She needs to be very attentive to win back the far-right voters who have traditionally supported the LDP’s far-right wing, while retaining the support of the centre-right, which is also quite influential and dominant.

On the foreign policy front, Dr. Dasgupta explained that Japan’s relations with India will remain stable and forward-looking, with greater cooperation expected in defence, security, and economic areas between the two countries. However, there might be a demand for stricter oversight, because she comes into office at a time when Japan’s economy is undergoing inflation. She is very focused on increasing domestic spending at the expense of foreign spending.

The Speaker further assessed that Japan’s alliance with the United States will remain the cornerstone of its foreign policy. She will be continuing the same level of relation Abe used to have with the US. He said that it is unlikely to see any friction except if President Trump raises excessive demands on opening up the agricultural sector and urging Japan to achieve a five percent increase in defence spending.

While assessing Japan-China relations, he underscored that it is the real point of tension, considering Takaichi’s stand on Taiwan and China’s reaction to it. As long as any moves she makes towards Taiwan are only symbolic and not substantive, relations are expected to remain cordial. Dr. Dasgupta further analysed that there will be a greater focus on Southeast Asia, including a significant effort to carve out a proto-sphere of influence there. There is also a high probability of a substantial increase in defence spending, including the exploration of nuclear-powered submarines and other taboo-breaking technologies.

In conclusion, Dr. Dasgupta noted that while the leadership change does not indicate a fundamental departure from Japan’s existing policy trajectory, it marks a recalibration in tone and emphasis. The new administration’s ability to sustain political legitimacy, deliver economic results, and manage external relations amid global uncertainty will determine the overall impact of this transition.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, delivered his remarks on the presentation before the Q&A session. Ambassador Chinoy observed that Japan is visibly changing, as reflected in the rise of a woman as Prime Minister. Regarding Japan’s political structure, he explained that the LDP is a big-tent party with diverse internal factions, which is why it continues to dominate national politics. He described how bureaucrats and political dynasties commonly rise to ministerial positions, citing examples such as Shinjiro Koizumi and Norikazu Suzuki, both of whom he considers future leaders. He also reflected on the shifting role of Komeito in national politics.

Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, raised a question about promoting immigration to Japan as an option to offset its demographic decline and Takaichi’s approach towards Taiwan. Dr. Dasgupta replied that the Japanese government policy states very categorically that Japan is not a country of immigration. However, foreign workers are needed in various states because they are a structural requirement to complement and supplement the ageing population and its decline. There is no official measurement or policy structure in place to facilitate the required integration of migrants. That has been left up to the prefectural governments, the local governments, and civil society organisations.

Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, inquired about the rise of anti-migrant and nativist movements in Japan and whether their interaction could lead to political and social disruptions similar to those witnessed in the United States. Dr. Arnab Dasgupta agreed that there is no uniform pattern in Japan’s mobilisation dynamics. He pointed out the emergence of the Sanseito Party as a notable example, highlighting that much of its rhetoric appears to mirror “MAGA”-style messaging. He added that even organisations like Turning Point USA have had linkages with Sanseito, which further reflects this ideological borrowing. According to him, the drivers shaping Japanese attitudes toward immigrants are broadly similar to those seen in the US and Europe, rooted in the perception that an imagined Japanese cultural purity is being threatened by increasing numbers of foreigners.

The Report has been prepared by Mr. Athul T. Dharan, Intern, East Asia Centre.