Dr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on, ‘Ongoing Civil War and Proposed Elections in Myanmar” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 10 February 2025. Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA moderated the meeting. The scholars of MP-IDSA participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since the military coup in February 2021. The ongoing conflict has resulted in severe humanitarian crises, displacement of civilians, and loss of life, with both sides committing alleged human rights abuses. The military’s attempts to suppress opposition have been met with increasing resistance, both within Myanmar and from the international community, which has largely condemned the coup and imposed sanctions on the junta.

Regarding the proposed elections in Myanmar, the junta has indicated plans to hold general elections in 2025. However, these elections are seen by many as an attempt by the military to legitimise its control over the country. The military’s commitment to holding free and fair elections has been questioned, given the ongoing conflict and repression of political opposition. Many pro-democracy groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government formed by members of the ousted civilian leadership, have rejected the notion of elections under military rule, calling for a return to democracy and an end to the military’s control.

The international community remains divided on the issue, with some countries calling for a peaceful resolution and others, like the United States, supporting sanctions against the military regime. The situation in Myanmar remains fluid, and the path forward is uncertain.

Detailed Report

The session began with initial remarks by the moderator Dr. Anand Kumar regarding the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. He described how the 2021 coup happened and how it has turned into turmoil in Myanmar. He also highlighted that the junta faced huge resistance from the ousted government. Following this, Dr. Om Prakash Das began his presentation and talk. He divided his presentation into five main parts :

• Four Years of Coup
• Junta: Paradox, Dilemma, Disarrayed
• Proposed Elections
• The Contested Idea of the Federal Democratic Structure
• What Lies Ahead

Dr. Das explained the overall situation from 2021 till date and how the coup happened. He stated that there has been a struggle amongst all the stakeholders to arrive at an inclusive political democratic structure since the independence of Myanmar. In 2020, the National League for Democracy (NLD) got a landslide victory in the elections. The junta and various other opposition parties claimed that the election results were rigged which led to mass civil disobedience and protests which further led to armed resistance. The military took over on 1 February 2021, the day parliament was supposed to convene for the first time following the election. Myint Swe, a former military commander who served as the military-appointed Vice President, took over as Acting President after President Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi, and other NLD members were detained.

Dr. Das went on to explain the current situation in which there is a full-scale war and most of the area is under the control of the rebel forces. The junta is struggling to control its territory. He added that the military controlled only 21 per cent of the area and Operation 1027 launched by the three biggest armed groups was a major departure point as these groups joined hands and attacked the junta in which the junta lost military bases (Northern Eastern Regional Command). Dr. Das stated that across the globe, the use of air force was criticised. Most of the fighter jets were provided by Russia and China and this has been a point of concern. There was more than a 300 per cent increase in the airstrikes between 2021 to 2023.

Another point of concern has been the enforcement of people’s military service law and there has been criticism that the military is compelling the youth to be a part of the military, However, the junta denied forced implementation of the conscription law. He highlighted that the financial position of the military is worse and they have been suffering losses as also mentioned in one of the newspapers. Dr. Das stated that the junta has urged people to be loyal to the state and abide by the laws. This underscores the junta’s need to reinforce legitimacy. A key aspect here is the distinction between loyalty to the state and loyalty to the nation and these are two different concepts which often tend to overlap. He explained one contradictory policy stance. In September 2024, Myanmar’s military leader and head of the junta took a different approach as Myanmar’s military extended an offer to resolve political issues through political means and the military proposed dialogues with groups that were labelled as terrorists by the military itself. This change came after almost a year of military actions and shows how the junta’s position has become confusing and this also shows the inconsistency with how the junta deals with rebel forces.

Dr. Das explained that for elections to be conducted, census data collection began in October 2024 and the junta declared its intention to hold elections in 2025. Elections were the ultimate mission of the junta. It is estimated that voting would only take place in 160 to 170 townships and resistance groups are likely to disrupt the elections.  It is also said that the resistance groups may disrupt the elections and they also warned individuals who were collaborating with the junta’s election process. Some of the resistance groups have claimed that they avoid targeting civilians. He further highlighted that the junta claimed that the election would bring stability while the opposition believed that the elections were a facade for military rule. Countries like China, India and Russia offered backing as well. Furthermore, the ethnic armed organisations have dismissed elections as illegitimate. It is also witnessed that the military is now weaker than it ever has been. However, Dr. Das pointed out that despite severe risks, elections are likely to proceed and there is a strong push from within the elites to hold elections.

Regarding the contested idea of federal democracy, Dr. Das remarked that there has been a struggle to achieve a political structure. He further stated that the opposition is divided on the issue of the future political structure, especially federalism. The NLD prioritised restoring democracy first and Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO)  advocated for federalism with significant autonomy for ethnic states. Dr. Das explained that a ‘bottom-up approach’ to federalism emphasises local governance in EAO-controlled areas.

Dr. Das concluded his presentation by stating that by 2025, Myanmar’s military will continue to struggle as opposition grows. China will continue to be an important external actor in Myanmar and it has been following a more pragmatic approach in terms of pushing for elections. States like Rakhine, Kachin and Shan may seek independence in the near future and the military may end up controlling central Myanmar. He highlighted that China is also pushing for a peaceful solution through dialogues and negotiations. The session concluded after an insightful exchange of views between scholars during the Q&A session.

The report was prepared by Ms. Simran Walia, Research Analyst, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre.