A larger exchange of defence business between India and Southeast Asia may consolidate India’s position in the regional security architecture, and also forge greater political alignment with important ASEAN partners.

Given its geo-strategic importance, Indonesia’s cooperation is crucial for success of any regional security framework in the Indo-Pacific. It is therefore important that regional powers pay attention to Indonesia’s concern over Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the newly constituted AUKUS, especially in view of the increasing US–China rivalry in the region.

Notwithstanding the relatively lower death toll, the January 14 attack has caused alarm in the region given that it came as proof of the claim made by the IS in 2014 about intensifying its activities across Southeast Asia.

While the Indonesian military played a crucial role in counter-terrorism since the late 1940s, the fall of Suharto in 1998 and democratisation led to the Police dominating this task, especially after the first Bali bombings in 2002. Lately, however, the Indonesian military has reclaimed part of this role, mainly due to the rising threat from the Islamic State.

While Indonesia’s ratification has given a boost to the CTBT, the positions of the other hold-out countries do not show any promise of forward movement.