The unfolding horror in Afghanistan appears foreboding for India, as for the rest of the world, considering that a war-ravaged Afghanistan can well become a global terrorism hub under the Taliban.
Over the last decade we have seen a race to build ports in the Indian Ocean as the two Asian powerhouses, China and India, compete to assert their regional influence. The newest addition to this power struggle is the Chabahar Port, located in Chabahar, a coastal town in the Sistan–Baluchistan region in south-eastern Iran, next to the Gulf of Oman, and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz (Figure 1). Its strategic importance and economic value have drawn attention from many countries; however, India was the quickest to secure a deal to develop the port.
Fears about the Beijing-Rawalpindi axis scripting Kabul politics and thereby causing the complete marginalisation of New Delhi in the region appear far-fetched given the political dynamics of Afghanistan.
In this final part of the Policy Paper series, P Stobdan deliberates that if India and China make a calibrated move for working together in Afghanistan, the outcome could be more harmonizing than conflicting. So when India reviews its post-2014 Afghan policy, the China factor should not be seen in a zero-sum perception for many in the West may press India playing a countervailing role to China.
India’s interests lie in a peaceful and stable Afghanistan and one of its major policy objectives would be to see the elimination of terrorism from Afghanistan and the destruction of all sanctuaries of the Taliban and the Al Qaeda.
Reply: Kindly refer to the IDSA publication by Vishal Chandra, “Afghanistan: Likely Scenarios and India’s Options” in Rumel Dahiya & Ashok K. Behuria (eds.), India’s Neighbourhood: Challenges in the Next Two Decades, Pentagon Security International, New Delhi, 2012, pp. 1-18 (free download)
The above chapter presents three alternative scenarios and thereafter identifies the most plausible scenario for post-2014 Afghanistan. Based on the likely scenarios, the chapter suggests/recommends policy alternatives for India.
Afghanistan seems to be torn between hope and despair. The fate of ‘New Afghanistan’ will largely depend on the commitment of the international community to support the ongoing process of transition and stabilization.
India and Taliban
The unfolding horror in Afghanistan appears foreboding for India, as for the rest of the world, considering that a war-ravaged Afghanistan can well become a global terrorism hub under the Taliban.