Karthikeyan G and Digvijay Singh asked: What is the likely scenario in Afghanistan post-2014? What are the implications for India, and how should India deal with it?

Reply: Kindly refer to the IDSA publication by Vishal Chandra, “Afghanistan: Likely Scenarios and India’s Options” in Rumel Dahiya & Ashok K. Behuria (eds.), India’s Neighbourhood: Challenges in the Next Two Decades, Pentagon Security International, New Delhi, 2012, pp. 1-18 (free download)

The above chapter presents three alternative scenarios and thereafter identifies the most plausible scenario for post-2014 Afghanistan. Based on the likely scenarios, the chapter suggests/recommends policy alternatives for India.