China is no longer interested in maintaining previous patterns of its relationships with India and US. It seeks to forge new types of relationships that are reflective of the extant balance of power. China expects India to demonstrate awed subservience and refrain from security cooperation with US.
Considering that the US, Japan, Australia and India are committed to working for a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific, it is time for India’s strategic partners to review their cartographic positions on India’s borders.
As the US presidential elections are just a few months away, the economic and strategic differences between India and the United States have come to the forefront. Trump–Modi partnership which started with ‘hugplomacy, is now transformed to that of ‘shadowboxing’. In this era, legacy as well as personal ties between the two leaders will matter little because national interests will be pursued relentlessly. India’s quest for autonomy in foreign policy and its ability to manage the contradictions with the United States will dictate the future course of relations between the two countries.
The SIPRI report on the volume of international arms transfers during 2015-19 highlights the strengths of key strategic partnerships such as Russia-India, US-Japan and China-Pakistan, reinforced by arms trade.
India’s decision to ally with America would be contingent upon the degree of convergence between their positions on core issues and the extent of military assistance needed in a two-front war scenario.
Given India’s evolving procurement system, efforts should be made to enhance compatibility of technology from various sources. This may require greater cooperation with the US since many of India’s suppliers other than Russia depend on US technologies for their products.
While 11 of the 12 prescribed sanctions will have little or no effect on India-Russia defence relations, the twelfth, unless waived, has the potential to completely derail the India-US Defence and Strategic Partnership.
India, on its way to become a global power, will likely have to follow a zigzag course, balancing between American demands, long-term friendship with Russia and its own strategic necessities in the neighbourhood and beyond.
An evaluation of the non-negotiable elements of the CISMOA Boilerplate agreement does not show any element that will have any unavoidable security risks for India.
India appears to be failing to consider the geopolitical and foreign policy fallouts from signing the so-called foundational military pacts with the United States.
The China-India-US Triangle: Changing Balance of Power and a New Cold War
China is no longer interested in maintaining previous patterns of its relationships with India and US. It seeks to forge new types of relationships that are reflective of the extant balance of power. China expects India to demonstrate awed subservience and refrain from security cooperation with US.