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  • Title Date Date Unique Author Body Research Area Topics Thumb
    Harnessing the Potential for Defence Cooperation through Defence Attachés April 12, 2024 D. Padma Kumar Pillay

    As India’s profile as a security partner has improved in concert with its economic and scientific growth and its military stands out as a stabilising factor in the region, the need to engage with the rest of the world on defence issues has become more relevant. Providing a strategic context to defence cooperation efforts in the changing security environment is important.

    Historically, India has used instruments of military power not only to protect its national interests, but also to safeguard, when requested, the interests of friendly countries against internal disturbances and disorders, including in Korea, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. As per the terms of the Indo-Bhutan treaty, India has discharged its obligation to defend the security of Bhutan. It has maintained a key Indian military training establishment in Bhutan since 1969.

    India has extended military expertise and assistance to Mauritius and Seychelles and other countries in restoring order in lesser known operations.  In Central Asia, India has an air force facility and a military hospital. India has provided training and infrastructure development assistance to a large number of countries in Africa, Asia, and Central Asia. India has also been a significant contributor to UN Peacekeeping efforts since independence. On a number of occasions, India has successfully used diplomatic and defence instruments in responding to humanitarian and natural disasters worldwide.

    In the emerging geopolitical environment, defence cooperation is increasingly becoming a dynamic tool for achieving India’s overall diplomatic objectives. India’s diplomatic interactions with other countries have increased significantly over the last two decades.  The joint statements issued at the highest levels invariably include defence and military cooperation. 

    India has defence cooperation agreements of one kind or the other with over 50 countries. The emphasis is on security dialogues, joint military exercises, and cooperation amongst Special Forces, intelligence sharing, maritime domain awareness, co-production and co-development of high technology equipment and defence research and development. With some countries, training and capacity building is given high priority.

    Overall, India's evolving defence diplomacy reflects its growing strategic ambitions. By continuing to effectively address the challenges and capitalising on the opportunities, India can significantly enhance its security and position as a major global player. India can not only safeguard its own interests, but also contribute to global and regional peace and stability, with focused attention to defence diplomacy in the coming years.

    In this context, the decision of the government as reported on 10 April 2024 to increase defence representation in several countries is indeed noteworthy. International defence representation by way of positioning a military officer as a Defence Attaché in missions abroad is an internationally accepted norm for enhancing defence cooperation with other countries. It is an ideal tool to advance a nation’s foreign policy objectives by building bridges of friendship that can be operationalised in times of crises and conflicts.

    It is equally true that many countries have enhanced their international defence representation in India manifold, recognising the utility of the office of Defence Attachés. There are over 120 Defence Attachés from over 70 countries stationed in India, with frequent requests for further enhancements. This shows the importance attached by other countries to enhance defence cooperation with India.

    In contrast, India, for several years had around 50 defence wings abroad. Thus, the announcement of new billets of 16 defence attaches from the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force to be posted to various locations is a significant development that reflects India's growing strategic ambitions and its focus on expanding its military partnerships around the world. Not doing so would have opportunity costs which India can ill afford and is a very positive sign of a pro-active policy in responding to the challenges of a fast evolving geopolitical scenario.

    Evidently, the established international order is under stress and becoming less effective in dealing with the emerging challenges. This move is likely a response to growing geopolitical competition and India's desire to strengthen its strategic ties and military diplomacy with these countries. There are several first-time deployments including several African nations. The focus seems to be on strategically important regions like Africa, Asia (including the Philippines and Armenia), and Europe (Poland).

    Recommendations

    A major drawback is that the Defence Attachés are on a one-time assignment with little previous experience in international diplomacy. It is a one-time posting for high performing officers who usually only report to the Service Intelligence Directorates. There is a need to professionalise the training of Defence Attachés to include language skills and attachment with the territorial division of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). 

    Defence Attachés are often under conflicting pressure of functioning between their controlling agency (Director General, Defence Intelligence Agency) and the parent service (respective service Intelligence Directorates). The MoD may in consultation with the MEA consider creating a cadre of specialists from the Defence Forces. They will benefit by spending some time in the concerned divisions of the MEA.  MoD and MEA could create a dedicated cadre of area experts including language experts from Armed Forces who can be rotated between missions, service headquarters and the MEA.

    Defence Attaches need to be considered as an extension of the diplomatic missions and there has to be clear objective settings and goals for them other than that which is accorded by the Service Headquarters. Defence Attachés could be called by the MoD to India for an Annual Review where their goals could be evaluated and stipulated pro-actively.

    The officers with experience and the talent could be seconded to regional organisations that are considered essential in furthering India’s national security and foreign policy objectives. There are several regional organisations like the Indian Ocean Association for Regional Cooperation (IORA), ASEAN, African Union (AU), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). India engages significantly with some of these organisations on defence and security matters. The government could identify specific organisations which could have representation for furthering defence cooperation. The Armed Forces may also create a pool of Liaison Officers (LO) based in the service HQ to coordinate and also to undertake visits, if necessary, to the these organisations. Such LOs' can function from the IDS or Service HQs. 

    The Armed Forces could also consider sending on deputation serving and retired armed forces experts for overseeing projects and infrastructure being constructed overseas. Indian missions and Defence Attachés need to be specifically tasked to explore the potential of beneficial defence collaborations, for marketing and co-development and export of defence products. This would not just be to co-develop defence items but to give a fillip to their own defence R&D.

    Transfer of Technology guidelines may be game changers in time to come if the right policies and opportunities are provided and markets are exploited.  Indian Missions abroad should be tasked to identify companies that can be acquired, technology that can be sourced as well as facilitate the entry of Indian private companies into foreign supply chains.

    The Ministry of Defence also conducts two major international defence exhibitions viz., the biennial Air Show and DEFEXPO. In both these events, leading indigenous and foreign defence industries participate showcasing their latest systems and inventories. A large number of delegations, often headed by the Defence Ministers or Chiefs of Armed Forces, participate in these two prestigious events.  These events can continue to be utilised as opportunities to further defence collaborations. India should also continue to actively participate in global expositions and air shows to establish markets for Indian defence exports.

    DRDO, DPSU, new corporatised Ordnance factories should develop capabilities to customise their products for export requirement in concert with the Indian private industry and fully exploiting opportunities available. There is also a need to formalise an export policy.

    Conclusion

    Defence cooperation has been an important component of India’s overall defence diplomacy. India has been using its Armed Forces to further the country’s national interests by contributing proactively to achieve international peace and security as well as creating conducive conditions for accelerating India’s ongoing transformation from an importer of defence equipment to an exporter. The decision to increase Defence Attache representation will no doubt help build capacities in furtherance of national interests.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

    Non-Traditional Security Defence Diplomacy system/files/thumb_image/2015/india-defence-t.jpg
    The Protection of Private Data in Japan under Duress April 08, 2024 Arnab Dasgupta, Rohit Kumar Sharma

    Summary

    Japan’s data protection framework faces significant challenges emerging from corporate structures as well as inadequate defences against human actors within the chain of data custody. Indian regulators can study and learn from the Japanese experience on the creation of a legal framework that takes due consideration of the norms of free enterprise while ensuring the safety and sanctity of personal data.

    Introduction

    Personal data is the next great key resource shaping the future of human evolution, as epitomised by the phrase ‘data is the new oil’.1 This understanding has driven countries and societies to begin thinking deeply about the implications of handing over private data to a corporation, government or other entity. Japan’s status as a key United States ally as well as a developed economy makes it a strong player in the digital economy.

    Recent string of incidents in the corporate domain have highlighted that Japan does not necessarily possess the strong safeguards seen elsewhere in the world to prevent data leakage from taking place. The Brief examines Japan’s existing legal and policy frameworks and assesses the implications for the future of data security and private data protection in the country. It will be argued that Japan’s data protection framework faces significant challenges emerging from corporate structures as well as inadequate defences against human actors within the chain of data custody. 

    The LINE-NAVER Data Breach

    On 5 March 2024, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Telecommunications issued administrative guidance (gyōsei shidō) to social media entity LINE Yahoo! Corporation after it discovered a breach in the cloud services it had been subcontracting from Korean social media entity NAVER Korea.2 NAVER’s servers, containing LINE’s data on Japanese consumers, were found to be inadequately protected against unauthorised access, and a malware infection in one of NAVER’s subcontractors’ servers allowed external actors to access Japanese consumers’ data. The investigation found that ‘external actors’ had been able to access NAVER Cloud’s servers, which in turn gave them access to LINE’s data.

    It is pertinent to observe here that LINE Yahoo! has been involved in a string of unauthorised data leakages in the past as well. In 2021, a Chinese subcontractor of the company was able to access user data in Japan and in August 2023, the company was found to be sharing user location information to NAVER, which in turn was giving its subcontractors access to its data. As a result, the Minister for Internal Affairs in a press conference reported that the ministry has placed LINE! Yahoo under a year-long watch list, after which further actions would be considered if no improvements were observed.3

    NTT West Data Leakage

    Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) Corporation West, the branch of the semi-private national carrier handling operations in Western Japan, also came under the scanner after a former temporary worker at the company was arrested in January 2024. The staffer had reportedly copied over 9 million pieces of customer data onto a USB stick from another subsidiary using his access to NTT West’s internal network. The subsidiary targeted by the former employee handled call centre operations for NTT Corporation, and the data allegedly taken covered over 10 years of names, telephone numbers and addresses.

    Once again, this was not the first time NTT West has been hit by cases linked to unauthorised access of data. In April 2022, a client of the telecom giant reportedly warned of a suspected leak of information at NTT’s end. However, NTT West apparently conducted a shoddy investigation after which it declared the matter settled, only to be outed in October 2023 after the client company approached the police to request an investigation. As the January incident came to light, NTT West’s president Masaaki Moribayashi announced that he would step down from his post to take moral responsibility. The company has committed to spend over 10 billion Japanese yen in the following three years in order to boost its network security and detect irregularities.4

    Legal Frameworks for Data Protection

    In both instances, the unauthorised access to user’s personal data is under scrutiny, leading to questions being raised about whether the affected parties have any legal recourse under current Japanese law. Also, what obligations do businesses have under the law to safeguard such data?

    In Japan, the Act on the Protection of Personal Information (APPI), 2003 is the principal data protection law. After its adoption, it has undergone periodic amendments, the latest one being in 2020. One of the key steps under the APPI was the establishment of the Personal Information Protection Commission (PPC) as the primary regulator responsible for the implementation of the legislation. Under the law, the PPC is entrusted with the following responsibilities:5

    • Promotion of basic policy
    • Supervision
    • Mediation of complaints
    • Public relations
    • International cooperation
    • Reporting to Diet

    Given the wide range of responsibilities, the PPC plays a vital role in ensuring robust privacy security frameworks across businesses along with sectoral regulators, if any. For the purpose of the law, businesses dealing with personal data are called personal information controllers (PIC), while the individuals or the customers are referred to as data subject. The act also outlines the broader duties and obligations of PICs and the rights of data subjects.

    LINE/NAVER Korea Data Leakage

    To examine the applicability of the APPI in this case, it is important to determine the nature of cooperation between the LINE and NAVER. According to the administrative guidance, factors that contributed to the incident included strong dependence of the LINE on NAVER regarding system and network configuration, as well as inefficient safety control measures. The ministry also advised the Japanese entity to improve its operations by reviewing its capital partnership with NAVER as it is under “considerable influence” from the South Korea-based entity.6 As reported, NAVER’s cloud has “extensive access” to LINE’s environment, making it easy to access data stored using NAVER’s network.7 On this, the ministry underlined the need for both services to implement their own authentication tool instead of relying on the shared directory.

    These operational arrangements position NAVER as a data processor in the case, entrusting the entities with certain obligations under the law. According to the law, LINE has a legal obligation to conduct appropriate and necessary supervision over NAVER, which is a data processor.8 In fact, the PPC guidelines also emphasise the importance of measures that involve visibility and supervising the processing of personal data by the outsourcing provider.9 However, neither the APPI nor any related regulations impose direct obligations on data processors.

    There is also a need to evaluate whether such operational arrangements were serving any of the key principles of any data protection regime, such as purpose limitation and data minimisation. These principles are at the heart of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which has partially, if not completely, inspired the data protection regime in Japan. Purpose limitation entails the collection of personal data for ‘specified, explicit, and legitimate purposes and not further processed in a manner that is incompatible with those purposes’.10 Similarly, data minimisation means the collection of personal data that is ‘adequate, relevant, and limited to what is necessary in relation to the purposes for which they are processed’.11 Clearly, these principles were not adhered to in the present case, as LINE user credentials serve no purpose to NAVER’s infrastructure. Furthermore, administrative guidelines also noted that LINE entrusted security management to NAVER, amounting to the breach of duty under the law.

    NTT West Data Leakage

    In this case, the leak is believed to have taken place over a decade, and the management ignored warnings on multiple occasions.12 The threat actor in the case, a former employee of the company, sold the leaked data to a third party, which included information such as addresses, names and phone numbers of customers. Furthermore, the leaked data also contained credit card information in some cases. The fact that a temporary employee had access to such data raises concerns about the company’s data security framework, which clearly failed to prevent data breaches. It also prompts questions about data security practices, such as implementing stringent controls over user credentials and access privileges to prevent unauthorised access and safeguard sensitive information. Following the widespread publicity of the breach, the communications ministry has also ordered NTT West to revise its contracts with employment agencies.

    As far as legal remedies for victims are concerned, despite no evidence of secondary harm to users resulting from the leak, courts in Japan now recognise the private right of action for a data breach involving personal information.13 In fact, the Supreme Court of Japan acknowledges that the plaintiff’s mental distress stemming from the data breach constitutes compensable harm. On multiple occasions, it has been observed that PICs have often voluntarily offered compensation to affected parties to forestall any proceedings. Though no claimants have come forward thus far in the current case, it is not a sign of mature business practice to prefer paying compensation over strengthening data protection rules.

    Many sector-specific regulations authorise relevant regulators to enforce rules by notifying business improvement orders following a cyber incident or, in the worst case, render business suspension orders. Following a breach, the PPC is also authorised to issue advice for improvement. If the PIC fails to comply with such advice, the PPC may escalate by issuing an order of improvement. Failure to comply with an order for improvement could also be grounds for criminal imprisonment.14 As NTT West has been served with an order for improvement, it is too early to say how conditions will improve in the future.

    To ensure that appropriate data protection measures are in place, the PICs are also required to remain vigilant of malicious insider threats, as exemplified in the case of NTT West. User behaviour monitoring is critical to look for an anomaly to pre-emptively identify an insider threat. However, it is equally important to strike a balance between these practices and privacy concerns. To enable a better understanding of data management, the PPC released a data mapping toolkit for private entities.15 The toolkit can also help the PICs with regulatory compliance, data governance and security initiatives within the organisation, though it is unknown whether NTT West applies the toolkit in its internal systems.

    Conclusion

    In an age where the free flow of data is at the root of global commerce, even a state with high capacity like Japan needs to wrestle with the creation of a legal framework that takes due consideration of norms of free enterprise while ensuring the safety and sanctity of the data shared by its 127 million citizens.  The cases discussed above throw up interesting—and complicated—questions about Japan’s struggle to implement the same.

    As the Diet enters into discussions on the amendment to the Designated Secrets Protection Law 2014 which will seek to protect economic secrets behind a firewall of security clearances,16 it is an opportune moment for it to also consider how it can best protect the private data of Japanese citizens from a range of threats emerging from within and outside its economic actors. It is also a good opportunity for India, currently in the throes of devising its own legislation on data protection, to learn from Japan’s struggle, particularly concerning delineation of wider obligations for data processors and enactment of stringent penalties in the event of a data breach involving sensitive personal data.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

    East Asia, Strategic Technologies Japan, Data privacy system/files/thumb_image/2015/japan-protiction-data-t.jpg
    GCC’s ‘Vision for Regional Security’ April 05, 2024 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan

    For the first time since its inception, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) announced its ‘Vision for Regional Security’ at a ceremony held in its headquarters in Riyadh on 28 March 2024. While announcing the launch of the document, GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Al Budaiwi stated that the “Vision for Regional Security is not just a political commitment, but an ethical dedication that unites us all.”1 He also stated that “our common security is the foundation upon which we build our hopes and dreams for a better future.”2 Similar sentiments have been previously expressed by the leaders of the GCC on multiple occasions. However, the national interests of the individual countries, the fluid nature of regional security and the complex geopolitics have hindered unity against the common security challenges.

    Principles, Objectives and Commitments

    The ‘Vision for Regional Security’ emphasises that it is based on the principles of shared destiny and indivisible security of the member states, and any threat to one is a threat to all the member States.3 This was also earlier mentioned in the Joint Defence Agreement of the GCC signed in 2000.4 The vision document is based on the principles of respecting sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of the States. Based on these principles, the GCC aims to preserve regional security and stability, tackle the challenges facing them and settle the disputes through peaceful means. It also intends to build regional and international partnerships to deal with the regional threats.5

    To achieve these objectives, the vision document emphasises joint efforts on the part of all the member states to avoid the use of force and prioritise dialogue and negotiation to resolve their differences. The Vision for Regional Security enlists a number of old and some new issues affecting regional security of the GCC. The document reiterates the traditional concern of the GCC countries on terrorism and extremism. It urges the member states to combat terrorism and extremism, stopping the flow of money to the hands of the terrorists and combat money laundering.6

    The concern of the GCC countries over maritime security has also been reflected in the document. It calls for regional and international coordination to ensure maritime security and ensure trade and energy supply routes. As all the GCC countries are key suppliers of energy, any disruption in the sea lines of communication will directly affect their national economies. 

    As the threat of a nuclear arms race in the region looms large with Iran and Israel having nuclear programmes, the GCC has urged to make the region a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ). It calls for a nuclear non-proliferation regime in West Asia, and at the same time, supports the right of the States to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.7

    With growing digitisation and the use of the internet, the number of cyber-attacks has also increased. They are also apprehensive that in case of any conflict, they would be highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks from their adversaries. Therefore, the vision document urges the member states to take effective steps to combat cyber security challenges. 

    Apart from the traditional security issues, climate change, water and food security, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), energy security, defending economic resources and creating investment opportunities have also been prioritised and included in their conception of regional security.8 Historically, the GCC has consistently emphasised the imperative of collaboration among the member states in addressing these shared challenges. These non-traditional security issues have increasingly occupied the attention of the GCC rulers in recent years and have been articulated in the vision document.

    This is a clear reflection of the widening ambit of the GCC’s conception of regional security. The GCC has moved beyond the traditional interpretation of regional security and its analysis of regional security has become more comprehensive in nature and scope. Previously, the regional security issues were primarily articulated through official communiqués issued after the high-level summit meetings of the GCC. The unveiling of the vision document constitutes a formal and unambiguous articulation of their regional security vision and a reiteration of their commitment to work together in this regard.

    Geopolitical Context

    The document has come at a time when the West Asian region is engulfed in a turmoil since the beginning of the Israel–Hamas War in October 2023. The vision document makes explicit reference to the Israel–Palestine issue and calls for activating the Arab Peace Initiative.9 Among others, it calls for a two-State solution, the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the pre-June 1967 borders and the establishment of an independent Palestinian State with East Jerusalem as its capital. It seems like the devastating consequences of the ongoing Israel–Hamas War and its regional implications have had an impact on the formulation of the vision document. The GCC often expresses its concerns over other regional issues such as the crisis in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Lebanon etc., but the Israel–Palestine issue is the only regional issue which finds a mention in the vision document. 

    The Israel–Hamas War has impacted the wider region as well, spilling over into the neighbouring Red Sea. The Houthis, whom the GCC member countries except Oman have fought against, have again become active. They have been targeting the ships in the Red Sea and as a result, a new tension has been created in the high seas. A coalition of more than 20 countries led by the US has started ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to ensure the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The tensions in the Red Sea affects all the GCC countries, more specifically Saudi Arabia, as it shares a long border with the Red Sea. While Riyadh’s engagement with the Houthis was moving in a positive direction following the Saudi–Iran rapprochement, the Houthis involvement in the Israel–Hamas War has brought the Houthi trouble back for the Kingdom.

    The Israel–Hamas War has once again brought the US–Iran tension in the region to the fore. Recent months have witnessed an increasing number of attacks on the US forces by different militia groups in GCC’s neighbourhood in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. The US has alleged that these groups are backed by Iran. The GCC countries are worried about any further military escalation between the US and Iran in their neighbourhood.

    The announcement of the document at this point is a conscious move on the part of the GCC to reaffirm its cohesion at the time of fast-evolving regional crises. It proposes a comprehensive framework of regional security which promotes negotiation and dialogue to overcome disagreements, violence and conflict. Furthermore, it reinforces the role of the organisation in mediating as well as resolving regional conflicts. While the vision document is an effort in the right direction, executing this framework in a volatile geopolitical and security environment will test the commitment of the individual member states and the unity of the GCC as a collective.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

    Eurasia & West Asia Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) system/files/thumb_image/2015/gcc-t_2.jpg
    Haiti's Escalating Humanitarian Crisis and International Response April 04, 2024 Mohanasakthivel J

    Summary

    Haiti’s plight underscores the urgent need for a unified international response, with the need for the United States to play a pivotal role in fostering collaboration and implementing sustainable solutions.

    Introduction

    In the wake of the profound political upheaval and rampant gang violence, the resignation of Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry on 11 March 2024 underscored the daunting challenges facing governance in Haiti.1 President Jovenel Moïse was also assassinated in July 2021. With Haiti's political landscape devoid of elected representatives and a functioning legislature, the formation of a transitional council aims to address the country's electoral challenges. The dire situation in Haiti has prompted the United States2 , Canada3 , EU, France4 , and India5 to launch evacuation missions.

    Haiti’s Many Challenges

    Haiti, the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere, has endured decades of hardship. Natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes, inflict repeated devastation.  While international interventions aim to foster stability, their efficacy remains a subject of debate. The United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), operational from 2004 to 2017, serves as a prime example. Established with the intention of promoting security, the mission was ultimately tarnished by allegations of misconduct and the inadvertent introduction of cholera.6  Similarly, the aftermath of the devastating 2010 earthquake was further complicated by difficulties in distributing international aid, hindering recovery efforts. These factors contribute to a persistent cycle of instability, where political unrest and poverty remain constant battles for the Haitian people.

    Pervasive Influence of Armed Groups

    Haiti faces a significant challenge in the form of proliferating armed groups.  Estimates suggest that roughly 200 such groups operate nationwide, with a concentration of around 20 in the capital city, Port-au-Prince. These groups act as a major impediment to stability and progress. Within this landscape, two main coalitions, the G-Pèp and the G-9 Family, wield considerable influence, particularly in impoverished neighbourhoods of the capital. These groups often forge opportunistic alliances with political parties, oscillating between conflict and collaboration.

    Notably, figures such as Jimmy Chérizier, alias ‘Barbecue’, have risen to prominence within these gangs, with Chérizier leading the Living Together alliance which has increasingly advocated for political reform. However, his calls for change are tarnished by allegations of past brutality associated with himself and his organisation.7

    Despite this violent history, a potential shift in tactics might be underway. Recent pronouncements by Chérizier suggest aspirations to dismantle the current government and establish a more robust justice system.  Furthermore, his openness to disarmament contingent upon the armed groups' participation in negotiations to form a new government, hint at a possible willingness to pursue political solutions. Chérizier's insistence on gang inclusion in these discussions underscores his belief that such involvement is necessary to curtail gang violence.8 He further emphasises opposition to foreign intervention as a means of restoring stability.

    Whether Chérizier's rhetoric translates into a genuine pursuit of peaceful solutions or represents a strategic manoeuvre remains to be seen.  However, his influence within the gang landscape necessitates a nuanced approach. A deeper understanding of his motivations and potential role in Haiti's future is crucial for navigating this complex situation.

    The UN describes the situation in Haiti as 'cataclysmic' due to a surge in gang violence.  Since the start of 2024, over 1,500 people have been killed and 826 injured.9 Corruption, impunity and ineffective governance have pushed the country's institutions to the verge of collapse. Gang-related sexual violence has surged, including assaults on women who have witnessed their spouses being killed. There is ongoing lethal vigilantism, with community groups targeting those suspected of minor crimes or ties to gangs.

    Armed gangs have seized control of much of Port-au-Prince, destroying police stations, government buildings, financial institutions and medical facilities, while also engaging in numerous killings and abductions. There are concerns that the Haitian police force, already outnumbered and outgunned by the gangs, may soon be overwhelmed. Despite international efforts to address the crisis, such as the provision of US$ 10 million in equipment to Haitian security forces by the US State Department, illegal weapons continue to flow into the country, undermining existing arms embargoes.

    Deteriorating Humanitarian Conditions

    The issue of food insecurity has reached unparalleled heights due to gangs impeding agricultural operations and obstructing crucial transportation paths, further worsening the humanitarian predicament. Food insecurity persists at alarming rates, affecting 44 per cent of the Haitian population with acute shortages. The surge in violence has led to the internal displacement of 313,901 individuals, with 60 per cent of this displacement occurring in 2023.10

    Children are particularly at risk, with 3 million in urgent need of assistance. Rampant violence makes it difficult for parents to provide proper care and nutrition for their kids, and fear of getting caught in the crossfire prevents them from seeking medical attention at health centers. The healthcare system is crumbling, with at least half of facilities malfunctioning due to a lack of medicine, staff and beds to treat people injured by the violence. The situation is further compounded by lack of international support. With nearly half of the population (5.5 million) in need of aid for survival, the UN's response plan is drastically underfunded (only 6.6 per cent of the US$ 674 million goal has been met).11

    Haiti faces the terrifying prospect of a large-scale hunger crisis. Nearly half the population, a staggering 4.97 million people, are struggling to put food on the table. This situation is especially dire for children, with a shocking 19 per cent increase in severe acute malnutrition cases in 2024.  The roots of this crisis run deep. Gang violence has become a central driver. Gangs extort farmers, disrupt food distribution with roadblocks, and threaten agricultural production in vital areas like Artibonite, the country's main rice-growing region. This violence has triggered an economic collapse, driving up food prices and pushing more people into poverty.12

    Haiti's vulnerability to hunger goes beyond the recent surge in violence. Decades of political and economic instability have weakened the country's food security system. Deforestation, fuelled by poverty and natural disasters like floods and earthquakes, has further eroded its ability to feed itself. In addition, unsustainable trade policies that undercut local agriculture have also played a role.13

    Regional and International Responses

    The far-reaching repercussions of Haiti's gang violence, political deadlock and humanitarian catastrophe pose a significant threat to the stability of not just Haiti itself, but to the entire Caribbean region. With no apparent resolution in sight for the political crisis, it primarily falls upon the regional countries to mitigate human suffering and prevent the country from descending into chaos.

    First, although the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) has not traditionally played a major role in resolving Haitian crises, some scepticism remains regarding its current involvement, particularly acting as US proxy.14 CARICOM is uniquely positioned to contribute meaningfully due to its geographic proximity to Haiti, and commitment to democratic principles. CARICOM's advantages include a deeper understanding of Haitian realities due to its physical closeness. This, combined with historical ties, fosters cultural empathy, and facilitates communication between Haitian stakeholders and international actors.

    Additionally, CARICOM's unified stance on democratic governance has already exerted pressure on Haitian officials to prioritise free and fair elections. The CARICOM meeting in Jamaica on 11 March 2024 represents a positive step forward. By facilitating dialogue and consensus-building, it could pave the way for a Transitional Council and a more stable political environment.15 However, the success of this initiative hinges on sustained engagement from both CARICOM and the international community as a whole. CARICOM's continued leadership, informed by its regional perspective, is essential for fostering long-term stability in Haiti, which benefits the entire Caribbean.

    Second, the United States plays a significant role in Haiti due to its geographic proximity.  Its policy towards Haiti is multifaceted, aiming to address the nation's pressing challenges and promote stability. This strategy prioritises supporting Haitian-led initiatives to combat gang violence, navigate political and constitutional crises, stimulate economic growth and address the root causes of emigration.  Legislative measures like the Global Fragility Act and the HAITI Act reinforce these efforts. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) serves as the leading humanitarian donor, deploying Disaster Assistance Response Teams and investing in disaster preparedness programmes.  Despite these efforts, challenges remain, such as Haiti's low COVID-19 vaccination rate.16

    In October 2022, Haiti found itself in a desperate situation. Gang violence and a blockade of the country's main fuel port led to crippling shortages, bringing the nation to a standstill. Prime Minister Ariel Henry, recognising the severity of the crisis, made a plea to the international community for a ‘specialized armed force’ to help restore order and address the growing humanitarian concerns.17 However, Haiti's request for assistance wasn't met with an immediate response. The international community faced challenges in mobilising a solution. Finding a country willing to lead a security mission in a volatile situation proved to be a hurdle.

    It wasn't until July 2023 that progress was made. Kenya stepped forward, offering a significant contribution of 1,000 police officers to support a potential security mission. This offer represented a turning point, but it still took several months for the international community to solidify its response. Finally, in October 2023, after a three-month delay, the UN Security Council authorised the creation of a full-fledged Multinational Security Support Mission for Haiti.18 This delay highlights the complexities of coordinating an international response, particularly in a situation as critical as the one Haiti faced.

    The US approach to security in Haiti also reflects a reluctance for a direct intervention due to its past experience. Following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, the US hesitated to lead a multinational peacekeeping force. Despite initial US requests, Canada declined leadership while offering financial aid.19 Haiti, with US backing, then reached out to Africa. Stepping forward, Kenya agreed to lead the mission, sending 1,000 police officers to Haiti, with the US providing most of the financial resources.

    Third, Kenya's plan to lead a security mission in Haiti has sparked heated debate at home. Sending paramilitary police to quell gang violence raises concerns. Critics fear Kenyan casualties and question the mission's justification. Prime Minister Henry's resignation further complicates matters. Reports of some Kenyan officers opting out add to worries about safety and effectiveness.20 Haiti's worsening security has reportedly forced Nairobi to delay the deployment until political stability returns. Despite accusations of secrecy and neglecting domestic needs, Kenya sees the mission as a way to boost its international profile and ties with the US. Yet, doubts persist about the mission's viability and whether it can address Haiti's systemic problems.

    Despite ongoing discussions, the future of the Haiti mission is unclear, clouded by worries about its impact on both Kenya and Haiti. Some argue for alternative approaches, focusing on empowering local institutions and fostering long-term stability, rather than solely relying on external forces. This perspective advocates for supporting Haitian-led efforts, emphasising strengthening national institutions for lasting peace and security. As talks continue, the mission's fate remains uncertain, highlighting the complexities of international intervention and the need to prioritise the long-term interests and sovereignty of the nations involved.

    Finally, the recent call by the United Nations Secretary-General for renewed efforts towards reparatory justice frameworks,21 resonates deeply in the Haitian context.  Haiti, the first nation in the world to declare independence based on the ideals of liberty and equality (1804), was forced to pay a crippling indemnity to France for its liberation.22 This financial strain, amounting to billions in today's terms, stifled Haiti's economic development for generations and continues to contribute to the country's current struggles.  In 2003, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's demand for France to repay this debt, then estimated at almost US$ 22 billion, was met with his overthrow in a coup reportedly involving both France and the United States.23   This incident underscores the enduring impact of external meddling in Haiti's path to development.

    Conclusion

    Haiti's challenges serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global issues and the imperative for collective action. Beyond its borders, the nation's plight underscores the urgent need for a unified international response, with the need for the United States to play a pivotal role in fostering collaboration and implementing sustainable solutions. By reimagining frameworks such as the Monroe Doctrine to encompass not only security but also economic emancipation, there lies an opportunity to pave a path towards prosperity and stability for Haiti and the wider region. Now more than ever, concerted efforts and innovative approaches are essential in addressing the multifaceted challenges facing Haiti and in shaping a future for its people.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    Empowering Indigenous Defence Innovation: The ADITI Scheme and DefConnect 2024 April 03, 2024 Shayesta Nishat Ahmed

    The Innovations for Defence Excellence-Defence Innovation Organisation (iDEX-DIO), under the aegis of Department of Defence Production (DDP), Ministry of Defence, organised the DefConnect 2024 on 4 March 2024 in New Delhi. Raksha Mantri (RM) Rajnath Singh inaugurated the key event, which witnessed the involvement of notable stakeholders including the military, defence sector, emerging businesses, educational institutions and decision-makers, aiming to foster cooperation among them. The aim of the event was to

    facilitate meaningful engagements, showcase cutting-edge technologies [… developed by IDEX winners …] and […] to be a transformative platform for fostering collaboration, innovation, and entrepreneurship in the defence sector.1

    The RM, while delivering the inaugural address, stressed on the importance of achieving Aatmanirbharta in defence production. He launched the ‘Acing Development of Innovative Technologies’ with iDEX (ADITI) Scheme with the objective to “promote innovations in critical and strategic defence technologies”.2 The RM noted that iDEX has been expanded to iDEX Prime with the innovation grants being raised from Rs 1.5 Cr to Rs 10 Cr and stated that the intent behind these schemes was to enable India to transform in to a knowledge society. He expressed confidence that the initiatives like iDEX and ADITI Schemes will bolster the defence sector and reduce the reliance on imports.

    In the course of DefConnect 2024, Raksha Mantri Singh reiterated the significance of attaining self-reliance by reducing the dependence on import of weapon systems and stressed that “getting a hold on state-of-the-art defence technology [is] the most crucial aspect to achieve self-reliance due to the increasing role of cutting-edge technology in warfare in today’s time”.3 He outlined two approaches to achieving technological self-reliance—adopting the latest innovations from other countries or fostering indigenous capabilities through research and development (R&D).4 Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan noted that the event was a great initiative to connect the vision of MoD, services and innovators in the defence manufacturing sector.5

    Key Features of the ADITI Scheme

    iDEX was established in 2018 under the Defence Innovation Organisation (DIO) as a ‘not for profit’ company as per Section 8 of the Companies Act 2013, to create an ecosystem with necessary infrastructure support and incubation in Defence by engaging industries, start-ups, MSMEs, even academia, for R&D and technology development. The ADITI Scheme, which is a sub-scheme within iDEX, encompasses a corpus of Rs 750 crore covering the period 2023–2024 to 2025–2026, and is to be administered by the DIO to encourage “innovations in critical and strategic defence technologies”.6

    Technologies deemed ‘Critical and Strategic’ encompass

    Satellite communication applications, advanced cyber technology, autonomous weapons, cyber weapons, nuclear technologies, advancement in semiconductor technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Quantum Technologies (QT), advanced underwater surveillance systems and others.7

    Critical and strategic technologies will increasingly drive innovation and modernisation efforts of the Indian Armed Forces to bolster combat potential and capacity building. The ADITI Scheme aims to foster the development of critical and advanced technologies essential for national security, filling gaps where existing capabilities are lacking. Stakeholder interactions, including with the Armed Forces, start-ups, MSMEs, and academic incubators, underscored the need for increased funding for projects concerning critical and strategic technologies, as highlighted during the Ministry of Defence’s Chintan Shivir in July 2023.8

    The scheme offers grants of up to 50 per cent of the Product Development Budget (PDB) with a maximum limit of Rs 25 crore, potentially leading to a PDB of Rs 50 crore or more. The scheme is intended to be monitored by the team with the DIO Board chaired by Secretary (DP) ‘through partner incubators to ensure regular guidance and adequate resources for oversight’.9 The project consists of 6 milestones, with a payment limit of Rs 9 lakh per case, amounting to Rs 1,50,000 for each milestone, allocated for Partner Incubator (PIs) upon completion of each milestone by the respective challenge winner.

    In total, the estimated expenditure for PIs is approximately Rs 3 crore. These grants will facilitate research and development intended towards innovations in defence technology. Its objective is to accelerate the development of approximately 30 deep-tech critical and strategic technologies by 2026.10 These 30 technologies will primarily serve defence applications with export potential.

    Secondly, it aims to foster collaboration between start-ups, MSMEs and established industry players to bring these technologies to fruition, and reduce dependence on foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). The ADITI Scheme leverages the existing iDEX Scheme to streamline the development process. The Scheme endeavours to create a ‘Technology Watch Tool’, as a mechanism to close the capability gap in the armed forces, and to strengthen the country’s defence innovation ecosystem.

    The purpose of the ‘Technology Watch Tool’ is to bridge the gap between modern armed forces’ needs and defence innovation ecosystem capabilities, facilitating strategic policy formation and milestone monitoring. The technology watch tool will also ensure no overlap in technologies through technology foresight workshops. Within the technology watch tool, an estimated 3 per cent of the grant in aid amount is estimated for challenge winners and Partner Incubators (PIs) is expected to accommodate the specialised services required from external agencies and subject matter experts for the curation and evaluation of critical high-cost technologies.11

    The problem statements initiated under the ADITI Scheme will be termed as ADITI challenges. In the first edition of launch of the scheme, 17 challenges have been launched out of which three were from the Indian Army, five each from the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force and four from the Defence Space Agency.12 Furthermore, ADITI seeks to enhance these critical technologies through continuous development and integrate them with products and technologies from the existing iDEX scheme.

    Enhanced funding and collaborative efforts are essential for advancing defence technology, and national security interests. The embedded framework will also enable the integration of cutting-edge defence systems and technologies into the defence establishment. There are several important components with regard to implementation of the ADITI Scheme.

    Firstly, it provides support for up to two winners per challenge in the ADITI programme, with each applicant eligible for only one challenge at a time, ensuring a fair process.13 The Scheme primarily benefits start-ups, MSMEs and Partner Incubators (PI). A network of approximately 10 Partner Incubators is proposed to be established to offer specialised support to bolster India’s self-defence capabilities and defence exports by fostering the creation of innovative technologies and products.

    Moreover, there will be direct engagement with military and government agencies to align technology-driven requirements of the armed forces of the country. Stringent oversight mechanisms will ensure proper utilisation of government funds, including a comprehensive grant management system and close monitoring through an IT platform and dashboard. Lastly, any supplementary activities deemed necessary to advance the scheme's core objectives will be undertaken.

    In addition to launch of the ADITI Scheme, the 11th edition of the Defence India Start-up Challenge (DISC) was launched at DefConnect 2024 where 22 problem statements were introduced. Among these, four were from the Indian Army, five from the Indian Navy, five from the Indian Air Force, seven from the Armoured Vehicles Nigam Limited, and one from the Hindustan Shipyard Limited.14 As part of the DefConnect event, a technology showcase was also organised by the iDEX-DIO. It featured a variety of technology start-ups leading innovation in the defence sector, specialising in areas such as

    Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Undersea Detection and Communication, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Wearable Technology, Blast & Ballistics Proof Structures and Equipment, smart textiles and cyber security.15

    These start-ups represented cutting-edge technologies and innovations, offering solutions to bolster defence capabilities and strengthen national security.

    Observations

    The launch of the ADITI Scheme, after the expansion of iDEX to iDEX Prime on 22 April 2022, reflects the government’s commitment to promote innovations in defence technologies by Indian start-ups for the armed forces. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Interim Budget 2024–25 had also announced a corpus of Rs 1 lakh crore to promote Innovation and Startups coupled with a new scheme for Deep Tech Startups in Defence.16

    The creation of the corpus of Rs 750 crore and the allotment of Rs 25 crore is well appreciated as the development of prototypes and hardware requires more capital. The significant rise in funding is widely acknowledged, recognising the greater financial resources needed for the development of new prototypes and hardware. The 30 identified critical and strategic technologies will largely benefit from this increase in funding.

    Defence innovation funding is being pursued using a dual approach, employing both the iDEX framework and the Technology Development Fund (TDF).17 The TDF aims to capitalise on the existing domestic capabilities within Indian industries, particularly MSMEs and start-ups.18 With these two strategies in place, the introduction of additional schemes with a larger fund pool however could lead to redundant efforts, a scenario that can be mitigated by integrating such schemes within these existing frameworks. Doing so not only prevents duplication but also facilitates more effective oversight of these initiatives.

    In conclusion, the ADITI Scheme represents a pivotal initiative towards achieving self-reliance in defence technology, aligning with the broader goal of promoting indigenous innovation and bolstering India’s defence capabilities. The coordinated efforts of various stakeholders, coupled with effective oversight mechanisms, are essential for the successful implementation of such schemes, ultimately contributing to national security and economic growth.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    Far-Right Extremism in Europe: From Margins to Mainstream April 02, 2024 Julia Jose

    The first-ever electoral win of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands late last year, which saw it win 37 out of the 150 House of Representatives seats, highlights the growth of far-right extremism across Europe. PVV is considered a far-right political party due to its extremist positions on issues such as border control, immigration, asylum and Islam. Wilders’ electoral success aligns with the region-wide ethno-nationalist and anti-globalist tilt and a retreating embrace of multi-culturalism, the rule of law, and liberalism, which formed the bedrock of the European political system since 1945. Similar scenarios have unfolded in other European countries like Sweden, Finland, Poland, France and Italy, where the far-right has established a prominent presence.

    Key Drivers

    Far-right extremist beliefs and conspiracy theories promote a hierarchical narrative wherein non-Whites are deemed inferior to the White race and disseminate a warning of the Islamisation of Europe. Europe’s restive immigrant population has contributed to exacerbating the far-right extremist threat across the continent. The influx of migrants over the decades has festered resentment within the local European population, who fear the undermining of ethno-national identities and access to adequate social and economic opportunities.

    This has resulted in swelling support for exclusionary nationalist rhetoric,1 rising instances of Islamophobia, and dissemination of conspiracy theories such as eco-fascism and the Great Replacement, worsening the crisis. The Great Replacement Theory, endorsed by far-right political leaders such as Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and Matteo Salvini, asserts that ‘replacist elites’ are purposely replacing White Christian communities with multi-ethnic and multi-religious groups through illegal immigration.2

    Furthermore, conservative intellectuals and organisations have openly expressed xenophobic views. Douglas Murray, in his book The Strange Death of Europe, argued that rising immigration levels have resulted in the ‘streets in cold and rainy northern towns of Europe filled with people dressed with the foothills of Pakistan or the sandstorms of Arabia.’3 Many White supremacists and conspiracy theorists frequently highlight census data and express concerns that White European citizens will become a minority by 2044.4   

    Eco-fascists attribute environmental degradation to a surging immigration population. They advocate creating homogenous White Christian communities.5 This ideology has inspired incidents of far-right extremism, including the Christchurch shooting in March 2019. The Euro crisis, resulting in large-scale unemployment and the COVID-19 outbreak, which devastated economies and various industries, further deepened anxieties and the impact of continued immigration into their countries.

    Additionally, self-radicalisation through technological advancements and social media has heightened the risks of lone-wolf extremist acts carried out by the far-right. Technological advancements have also facilitated the cultivation of online communities among the far-right on 8chan and Facebook, among other forums.

    Right-Wing Extremist Incidents

    One of the earliest physical manifestations of far-right extremism in Europe occurred when Anders Breivik, a neo-Nazi, killed 77 people in Norway in July 2011. His manifesto and actions, driven by his apprehension about the Islamisation of the predominantly Christian West, have been emulated by others years after his arrest.6 In June 2019, Walter Lübcke, a Christian Democratic Union leader, was fatally shot near the city of Kessel by Stephan Ernst, a neo-Nazi for his pro-immigration views.7  

    A few months leading up to this attack in Germany, Christchurch in New Zealand was devastated by mass shootings in March 2019, in which over 50 people were killed. These attacks were carried out on two mosques by another neo-Nazi, Brenton Tarrant, who was inspired by Breivik. Additionally, a boy based in Darlington was arrested in the United Kingdom as part of an investigation into far-right extremism. It was found that he was an active participant in racist online forums and possessed information useful for committing terrorist acts, such as manuals for making explosives.8

    In December 2022, adherents of the far-right Reichsbürger movement attempted to violently seize power in Germany by overthrowing the democratically-elected government.9 However, their plan was thwarted by German officials following which mass arrests occurred. One of the detainees was Birgit Malsack-Winkemann, a former lawmaker associated with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. Raids and seizures were also carried out throughout the country across multiple properties.

    More recently, following a stabbing incident near a school in Dublin in December 2023, far-right extremists damaged public infrastructure and targeted police forces. Following the attack, police concluded that unrest was driven by a ‘lunatic, hooligan faction driven by a far-right ideology’ and warned against ‘misinformation’.10 About 34 people were arrested as part of the investigations into the rioting carried out by the far-right.11

    Counter-Measures

    Various European countries have been taking countermeasures to tackle the scourge of violent extremism. Finland, for instance, since 2012 has put forward National Action Plans after extensive collaboration between governmental and non-governmental organisations, along with researchers and religious communities. These plans contain measures to identify recruitment methods of different radical extremist groups, steps to prevent participation of young people in radical activity, help promote safety and security of premises of religious communities, among other provisions.12  

    The Swedish Center for Preventing Violent Extremism, established in 2018, is primarily tasked with developing knowledge-based and cross-sector work involved in preventing violent extremism at national, regional and local levels. The Center works to promote the development of preventive work at the national, regional and local levels; strive to attain a high degree of coordination and effectiveness concerning preventive measures; provide support to agencies in addressing issues relating to VE and collect and disseminate information about preventing violent extremism.13 Sweden also appointed a National Coordinator to safeguard democracy against violent extremism in 2015.14

    The Netherlands’ National Counter-terrorism Strategy for 2022–26 calls for ‘extra attention’ towards the threat posed by potentially violent, extremist lone actors, flags the need to privilege innovative (technological) solutions to facilitate the detection and combating of the dissemination of violent extremist and terrorist content and calls for measures designed to ensure the safe re-integration of individuals after detention.15 The United Kingdom’s ‘Prevent’ strategy supports police and security agencies in identifying individuals and groups at risk of radicalisation.16

    Germany passed the Federal Government’s Strategy to Prevent Extremism and Promote Democracy in 2016 which calls for coordinated efforts by federal, regional and local authorities in association with civil society. More than 700 civil society organisations are funded by the federal government on measures to prevent extremism. Germany has established federal agencies for civic education and anti-discrimination.17 Germany also has initiatives such as Exit Germany which counsels families impacted by right-wing extremism.18

    Despite these significant measures, far-right extremism continues to be a sociological challenge that has significantly undermined multi-culturalism, liberal democracy and rules-based order in Europe. Continuing and enhanced cooperation between intelligence agencies, NGOs and community activists is necessary for addressing this critical threat.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    India–Bhutan Relations after Prime Ministerial Visits March 28, 2024 Sneha M

    Overseas visits by heads of state and governments help countries recalibrate their bilateral relations. These engagements play a pivotal role in reinforcing mutual trust and understanding, thereby establishing the groundwork for enduring diplomatic relations. Such high-profile visits provide officials the opportunity to reshape bilateral relationships to the advantage of their countries. Additionally, these interactions serve as catalysts for policy adjustments and political engagement, often garnering considerable attention from the media.

    A notable instance of such diplomatic exchange was the visit of Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, from 14 March to 18 March 2024.1 His delegation included various dignitaries from Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry for Industry, Commerce and Employment, and other senior officials from the Royal Government of Bhutan.2 Prime Minister Modi undertook a reciprocal visit to Bhutan three days later on 21–22 March 2024. These visits signify the importance both countries attach to bilateral relations, which has stood the test of time.

    Historical Aspects

    The enduring friendship between India and Bhutan is rooted in mutual warmth and goodwill, reinforced by frequent high-level exchanges. This bond assumed a lot of significance after India gained independence. India–Bhutan relationship traces its roots back to the Asian Relations Conference in New Delhi in March–April 1947, when Jawaharlal Nehru, then Vice-President of the interim Viceroy's Executive Council, extended an invitation to the Bhutanese delegation, which marked the beginning of formal engagement between the two nations.

    Subsequently, when Nehru became the first prime minister of India, he developed an extremely cordial relationship with Bhutanese King Jigme Dorji Wangchuck. Under their watch, bilateral negotiations ensued, culminating in the signing of the Treaty of Perpetual Peace and Friendship in 1949. All the succeeding governments in New Delhi have regarded this relationship as important and invested heavily in it. In fact, keeping Bhutanese sensitivities in mind, in 2007, a new treaty of friendship was signed, supplanting the 1949 Treaty as the cornerstone for cooperation and bilateral interactions between the two countries.3 These milestones underscore the historical significance of India–Bhutan bilateral relations, shaping their camaraderie till today.

    Prime Minister Modi's visits to Bhutan in 2014, 2019 and now in 2024, have further deepened bilateral cooperation across sectors like hydropower, trade and education. The visit by present King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck's to India in September 2022 and subsequent engagements in April 2023 and November 2023 underscored the robust nature of bilateral relations. Additionally, the King's visits to Assam and Maharashtra further strengthened ties between Bhutan and these Indian states. Such high-level engagements continue to shape the strategic partnership between India and Bhutan, fostering regional stability and prosperity.

    Geopolitical Dynamics

    Bhutanese PM’s visit to India holds a particular significance against the backdrop of Bhutan's economic challenges and its complex relationship with China. PM Tobgay's inaugural visit after assuming office following his party’s success in the 2024 elections proved very useful, with both governments reaffirming their commitment to increased collaboration across various sectors. A joint announcement emphasised its importance for regional stability and prosperity.4

    Undoubtedly, India is Bhutan's primary ally for development and has played a pivotal role in Bhutan’s socio-economic progress. India has supported several projects as well as contributed substantially to Bhutan’s developmental aspirations. In early March, just before PM Tobgay’s visit, Bhutan unveiled a 15 billion Bhutanese Ngultrum (Nu) economic stimulus package, with India's backing, which is aimed at alleviating economic slowdown in key sectors such as tourism, technology and small enterprises.5

    Hydro-power collaboration is a significant cornerstone of the economic partnership between India and Bhutan. In the joint statement issued after Tobgay’s visit, both parties expressed contentment with the advancements made in the construction of the 1020 MW Punatshangchhu-II hydro-power project and anticipated its commissioning in 2024.6 Furthermore, both countries also agreed to broaden the current India–Bhutan energy alliance to encompass non-hydro renewables like solar and wind energy for enhancing energy efficiency and conservation measures.7

    Interestingly, PM Tobgay’s visit took place amid speculations that Bhutan and China are engaged in negotiations concerning their border dispute, which is reportedly at an advanced stage. This has sparked a lot of interest in India due to its implications for regional security. During his first term as prime minister from 2013 to 2018, Tobgay had initially tried to restore stability in bilateral relations after his predecessor, Jigme Thinley, faced accusations of pursuing anti-India policies, leading to India suspending subsidised LPG supplies to Bhutan.

    However, as his tenure drew to a close in 2018, PM Tobgay had made a pledge before the National Assembly to cultivate a strategic and enduring relationship with China, aimed at safeguarding Bhutan's national interests, which had raised concerns in India.8 His March 2024 visit to India, immediately after assuming office, is expected to assure New Delhi of his intent to pursue a path of deeper engagement and take bilateral relations forward.

    As for Bhutan–China discussions on the border issue, in October 2023, Bhutan's former Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing.9 China's statement on the meeting suggests that Bhutan emphasised adherence to the One-China principle and expressed its willingness to collaborate on resolving the boundary issue.10 Earlier, in October 2021, China and Bhutan had agreed on a three-step roadmap to resolve their boundary dispute, four years after the Doklam standoff. India was apprehensive about the potential implications of any such settlement on the status of the Doklam plateau, situated near the Bhutan–China–India tri-junction. Nevertheless, India had urged China to adhere to a 2012 agreement stipulating that tri-junction points between India, China and third countries should be determined in consultation with the relevant nations.

    The deliberate Chinese trespasses into Bhutan's northern regions, considered sacred by Bhutan but not by Beijing, along with the claim over Sakteng in eastern Bhutan in 2020, detract attention from China's clear aims in the western area.11 According to Professor Ian Hall of the Griffith Asia Institute, these objectives primarily revolve around resolving the border dispute by acquiring the Doklam plateau. Such an acquisition would bolster China's territorial jurisdiction and apply further pressure on India's Siliguri Corridor, potentially providing leverage for Beijing in future crises with New Delhi.12

    Conclusion

    The back-to-back visits of Bhutanese Prime Minister to India and the Indian Prime Minister to Bhutan serve as strong reaffirmations of the enduring economic and developmental partnership between the two nations. Prime Minister Modi doubled India's support for Bhutan's Five Year Plan from Rs 5,000 crores to Rs 10,000 crores, showcasing India’s unwavering commitment. India and Bhutan exchanged several MoUs and signed agreements in the fields of energy, trade, digital connectivity, space, rail links and agriculture. Additionally, Bhutan’s King honoured PM Modi with the country’s highest civilian award, acknowledging India’s support during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Following the national elections in January 2024, PM Tobgay's tweet, stating ‘Bhutan is open to Business’, indicated that he considered his visit to India as a positive development for both his government and the nation. However, this statement can have multiple interpretations. For instance, it suggests Bhutan's political leadership's interest in forging diplomatic relations with China and embracing Chinese investments. Bhutan also refused India’s proposal for a motorable road from Bletting in Tawang to Doksum in Bhutan, citing concerns about potential disruption to ongoing boundary negotiations, at a time when it is awaiting resolution of its border dispute with China.13  

    Therefore, numerous questions remain unanswered. Early in the 1980s, Thimphu quietly relinquished its claim to the 154-square-mile Kula Khari area on its northern border with China, describing that claim was due to ‘cartographic mistakes’.14 Could another territorial concession be made without alerting India? Alternatively, should this visit be seen as a period of tranquillity preceding potential challenges in the bilateral relationship? Or perhaps, it is just Bhutan’s national interests at play.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    P75 (1) Submarines and Strategic Partnership Model March 28, 2024 Abhay Kumar Singh, S. Samuel C. Rajiv

    Summary

    The Project 75(I) will provide an opportunity for local manufacture of the state-of-the-art submarines which will enable the Indian Navy to dominate the undersea domain in our area of interest whilst providing the Indian industry an opportunity for long-term partnership in not only submarine construction but also maintenance, logistics and maintenance support.

    Introduction

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued an Expression of Interest (EoI) in June 2019 for shortlisting of Indian Strategic Partners (SP) in collaboration with foreign original equipment manufacturers (FOEMs) for construction of six conventional submarines under Project-75(I) of the Indian Navy. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) had earlier approved progressing the project under the Strategic Partnership Model (SPM) in January 2019. The Brief places in perspective developments relating to the procurement of the P-75(I) submarines, specifically in the context of the defence procurement/acquisition procedure that sought to build indigenous capacity in the domestic private defence industry through the SPM.

    The P-75(I) Saga

    While the most recent DAC approval for the Project 75(I) was in January 2019,1 the project was envisaged in the year 1999 when the Government of India contemplated indigenous construction of conventional submarines at two Indian shipyards. The project was formally initiated in November 2007 with the granting of the Acceptance of Necessity (AoN). The plan was to induct 12 conventional submarines by 2012 and another 12 by 2030.

    To bridge capability gaps in India’s submarine force comprising of just four German HDW and 10 Russian Kilo-class submarines, the contract for six Scorpene submarines (Kalvari-class) worth Rs 18,706 crores was signed in 2005, which later escalated to about Rs 23,000 crore. The first of the Scorpene submarines built at Mazagaon Docks Limited (MDL) was inducted in 2017 and the sixth submarine is set to be inducted this year. The DAC gave approval for three additional Scorpenes in July 2023.

    The EoI issued by the MoD for the P-75 (I) in June 2019 noted that while Indian companies would be shortlisted ‘based on their capability for integration of system of systems, expertise in shipbuilding domain and the financial strength’, FOEMs would be shortlisted based on their ‘submarine design meeting the Indian Navy’s Qualitative Requirements and qualifying the Transfer of Technology and Indigenous Content (IC) criteria’.2

    The DAC in January 2020 shortlisted MDL and private sector ship builder Larsen and Toubro (L&T) to tie up with any of the five foreign submarine builders as strategic partners. These five included Rubin Design Bureau (Russia), Naval Group-DCNS (France), Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) (Germany), Navantia (Spain) and Daewoo (South Korea).3 The Request for Proposal (RfP) for the nearly Rs 43,000 crore project was issued in July 2021 to the shortlisted two Indian strategic partners, MDL and L&T. The MoD noted that the Project 75(I) envisaged ‘indigenous construction of six modern conventional submarines (including associated shore support, Engineering Support Package, training and spares package) with contemporary equipment, weapons & sensors including sea proven Fuel-Cell based AIP (Air Independent Propulsion Plant), advanced torpedoes, modern missiles (indigenous) and state of the art countermeasure systems’.4  

    The French Naval Group in May 2022 announced that it will not be able to participate in the project, given that the RfP includes a sea proven operational AIP system, which it did not possess.5 Russian officials in August 2022 also noted that the terms of the project were “unrealistic” and that they preferred a government-to-government agreement for the project.6 Reports noted that the timeline for submitting bids was extended as a result of the apprehensions expressed by the FOEMs, mainly relating to liability clauses.7 Hanwha Ocean (which took over Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering in May 2023) initially maintained interest in Project 75(I) in collaboration with L&T. It also held talks with MDL. CMD, MDL was however cited as stating in August 2023 that the South Korean company had withdrawn from the tender process.8

    TKMS and Navantia remain in the race to bag the prestigious contract along with the Indian partner. Despite initial apprehensions, TKMS signed a teaming agreement with MDL in June 2023 during the visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius to India comprising non-binding and non-financial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). TKMS agreed to contribute to submarine engineering and design as well as provide consultancy support while MDL would be responsible for constructing and delivering the respective submarines.9 TKMS was offering the HDW Class 214 submarines to meet the Indian Navy’s requirements.10

    On the occasion of the signing of the MoU with MDL, TKMS noted that the four HDW Class 209 submarines built in the 1980s were a successful example of Indo-German cooperation which continue to be frontline assets of the Indian Navy. Two were built in Kiel while the last two were built at MDL. TKMS and MDL also signed an agreement for the repair and overhaul of the second of the HDW submarines, INS Shankush in July 2023, worth over US$ 300 million, to be completed by 2026. The Medium Refit Cum Life Certification (MRLC) of the first submarine INS Shishumar was signed in 2018, which extended the service life of sub by another ten years.11

    German Ambassador to India Philip Ackermann in March 2024 stated that there was clear political will on the part of the German leadership for enhanced defence cooperation with India. He flagged the “huge paradigm shift” in German strategic thinking to “boost cooperation with our strategic partners outside the NATO area” in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s expansionist behavior in the Indo-Pacific in violation of the rules-based international order.12 Ackermann noted that while the selection process for Project 75(I) was ongoing, there is a “clear willingness and preparedness from the German side to support this Indian project”.13 He further added that a group of Indian naval officers will be visiting Germany in March 2024 to evaluate the submarines.

    Spain’s Navantia, meanwhile, signed a teaming agreement with L&T in July 2023 for submission of techno-commercial bids for the submarine project, a month after the TKMS, MDL MoU. Navantia and L&T had signed a MoU in April 2023. Reports note that the company will be offering its S80 class of submarines.14 Spanish Secretary of State for Defence Maria-Amparo Valcarce Garcia visited New Delhi on 8 March 2024. During her meeting with Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane, a number of bilateral defence cooperation issues were discussed, with focus on industrial collaboration.15 Earlier in February 2024, Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Ribera visited India. She asserted that Navantia was developing the most modern submarines though she added that “we need to be quite respectful about decisions being made by each country on how to [meet] defence requirements”.16  

    The SPM Policy at Crossroads

    The Strategic Partnership Model (SPM) as a capital acquisition policy is, therefore, at a significant crossroads. The procedure was first promulgated in May 2017, following its inclusion as Chapter VII of the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2016. This followed the December 2015 report of a task force headed by V.K. Aatre, former scientific adviser to the defence minister, which laid down criteria for selecting Strategic Partners (SPs) from the private defence industry for executing high-value, defence projects.17

    The SPM eventually envisaged developing domestic capabilities in the four segments of fighter aircraft, submarines, helicopters and armoured fighting vehicles/main battle tanks. The SPM is part of the MoD’s efforts relating to defence procurement to develop long-term indigenous defence industrial capabilities. Other categories of capital acquisition as listed in the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 include ‘Buy’, ‘Buy and Make’, ‘Leasing’, ‘Design and Development’. Under the ‘Buy’ scheme, procurements are categorised in order of priority based on their relative importance towards indigenisation as ‘Buy (Indian – Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured)’, ‘Buy (Indian)’, and ‘Buy (Global)’. Under the ‘Buy and Make’ scheme, the procurements are categorised in order of priority as ‘Buy and Make (Indian)’ and Buy (Global - Manufacture in India).

    It is pertinent to note that the Indigenous Content (IC) requirements for most ‘Buy’ categories of capital procurement are more than 50 per cent. The IC requirements for SPM projects are lower than for those under the ‘Buy’ category of capital procurement. The Project 75(I) EoI stipulates IC as a minimum of 45 per cent on cost as per commercial bid basis with 60 per cent to be achieved for the last submarine with incentives for achieving higher IC content. Such provisions were included to ensure greater willingness on the part of the FOEM to partner with Indian SPs to execute high-value defence projects. It is pertinent to highlight that a higher IC content is envisaged for Project-75 (I) given that majority of weapons on the submarine are likely to be indigenous.

    Despite such provisions, however, the policy has not seen success so far. Some of the issues highlighted by analysts as regards the SPM policy included the restrictions on FDI limits. This was especially so in the aftermath of the government allowing FDI limit in defence to 74 per cent in May 2020, from the earlier limit of 49 per cent.18 The DAP 2020 notes that the strategic partner of the FOEM has to be an Indian company ‘owned and controlled by resident Indian citizens’ and the maximum permitted foreign direct investment (FDI) shall be 49 per cent.19 Officials of the Swedish defence company SAAB were cited as seeking clarification if the SPM policy also allowed for 74 per cent FDI, after the government raised the limit.20 As regards the Project 75(I) specifically, previous sections highlighted apprehensions of Russian and French defence majors as regards ToT and liability clauses, among others.

    The Project-75(I) was the second project to be pursued under the SPM policy of defence procurement. The first project under the SPM policy related to the procurement of naval utility helicopters (NUH) worth more than Rs 21,000 crore, an EoI for which was issued in February 2019 after the DAC approved the project in August 2018. Sixteen NUH were planned to be bought in a flyaway condition from a foreign military contractor, while the remaining 95 were to be built in the country in partnership with an Indian firm. Three foreign firms, Airbus, Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation (part of Lockheed Martin) and Kamov (Russian firm) submitted technical bids while Indian firms that were in the reckoning as SPs were Tata Aerospace and Defence, Mahindra Defence, Reliance Defence, Adani Defence, HAL, Bharat Forge and Lakshmi Machine Works.

    This project, however, did not fructify as planned due to a plethora of reasons, including interest shown by the state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in the project, which was opposed by the domestic private defence industry on the grounds that the SPM policy was specifically promulgated to build capacities in the private defence industry.21 There were also changes in specifications relating to maximum take-off weight. The NUH was eventually placed on the positive indigenisation list (PIL) which was issued in April 2022, barring the import of such platforms.22

    Way Ahead

    On the occasion of the DAC granting approval for the Project 75(I) in January 2019, the Ministry of Defence noted that it will ‘provide a major boost to the existing submarine design and manufacturing ecosystem in India through transfer of design and equipment technology as well as necessary skill sets’.23 The delivery of the first sub is expected not later than eight years after the signing of the contract. Given the reality of extant Indian submarine strength, the acquisition by Pakistan of eight 039 Yuan class submarines from China with AIP capability by 2028 and the increasing forays of Chines submarines in the waters of the Indian Ocean, it is essential that there is faster forward movement on the Project 75(I) with early contract conclusion for a submarine with proven combat capabilities which will provide the Indian Navy a true combat edge.

    The success of the strategic partnership model policy therefore is essential to convince FOEMs to be partners with the Indian domestic defence industry in taking forward the vision of building capacities in niche technological platforms like submarines. Moreover, given that the SP will not only need to commit to a plan for indigenisation in terms of value of production but also formulate a research and development roadmap to achieve self-reliance, the SPM policy will only aid in enhancing domestic capacities in the Indian defence industry.

    The Project 75(I) will provide an opportunity for local manufacture of the state-of-the-art submarines which will enable the Indian Navy to dominate the undersea domain in our area of interest whilst parallelly providing the Indian industry an opportunity for long-term partnership in not only submarine construction but also maintenance, logistics and maintenance support. This project will form the basis for development of fully indigenous next generation submarine design and technology for use by the Indian Navy with potential for export to interested partner nations. The Project 75(I) will be the acid test for atmanirbharta in India in the true sense through the SPM Model which will help realise the vision of the Government of India in the defence manufacturing space and should, therefore, be taken to its natural conclusion.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    Can the Security Council Help Bring Peace to Gaza? March 28, 2024 Rajeesh Kumar

    After 171 days of conflict in Gaza, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) finally adopted a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan. Introduced by Mozambique on behalf of the elected Council members (E-10) on 25 March, Resolution 2728 received 14 votes in favour and one abstention (United States).1 It calls for a ceasefire respected by all parties for lasting peace, demanding the unconditional release of hostages and ensuring humanitarian access.

    The resolution ended the state of paralysis of the Security Council and its repeated failures to effectively address the conflict in Gaza. However, despite the unified stance of the Council on ceasefire, Israel's response has raised doubts about the resolution's effectiveness in achieving peace. The US decision to abstain from the vote prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cancel the scheduled visit of his top advisers to the US for discussions on the offensive.2 Two ministers in Netanyahu’s war cabinet have also declared that the country will not abide by the resolution, further complicating the path to peace.3

    Security Council and the Gaza War

    On 7 October 2023, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a large-scale armed attack against Israel, firing thousands of rockets and conducting raids in border areas, resulting in approximately 1,200 civilian deaths and the capture of 253 hostages. In response, Israel conducted air strikes against Hamas in Gaza. Subsequently, on 28 October, Israel initiated a ground offensive with the objective of eliminating Hamas and rescuing the hostages. United Nations reports that since 7 October, over 1,200 Israelis were killed, with more than 5,500 injured, while nearly 32,000 Palestinians were killed and about 73,000 injured.4

    Since the conflict began, the Security Council has voted on nine resolutions; however, only two have been adopted. The first three drafts were vetoed by the US.  The first resolution on 16 October 2023 drafted by Russia proposed an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It  was however not adopted due to US veto.5 The draft received support from China, Gabon, Mozambique and the United Arab Emirates, while France, Japan, the US and the United Kingdom voted against it. The remaining six Council members abstained from voting.6

    The second resolution was drafted by Brazil, and voted on 18 October. Twelve of the Council’s 15 members voted in favour, while the US voted against, and Russia and the UK abstained.7 The UNSC also rejected two amendments proposed by Russia in the Brazilian draft, which called for an immediate, durable and full ceasefire, as well as for stopping attacks against civilians. The US explained the veto by stating that the resolution did not mention Israel's right of self-defence.8

    On 25 October, the UNSC voted on two competing draft resolutions—one from the US and the other from Russia—addressing the war and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The US' draft failed due to the vetoes of China and Russia. The Russian draft saw the US and the UK voting against it, while China, Gabon, Russia and the UAE favoured it, with nine members abstaining.9

    After a series of negotiations, on 15 November, the UNSC adopted its first resolution on Gaza since the war began. Proposed by Malta, the resolution called for urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip to facilitate the provision of essential goods and services.  It was adopted with 12 votes in favour and three abstentions (Russia, the UK and the US).10 However, on 8 December, the US vetoed another resolution drafted by the UAE. There were 13 votes in favour and the United Kingdom abstained.11

    On 22 December, the UNSC adopted a resolution requesting the Secretary-General to appoint a Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator to establish a UN mechanism for speeding up humanitarian aid to Gaza.12 The resolution called for ‘urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip for a sufficient number of days to enable full, rapid, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access’.13 It also emphasised the need for creating conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.

    On 20 February 2024, Algeria drafted a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. Despite receiving support from 13 out of 15 members, the resolution failed to pass, with the UK abstaining and the US voting against it.14 Again on 22 March, Russia and China vetoed a US draft that demanded a temporary ceasefire in Gaza.15 Three days later, the UNSC adopted Resolution 2728, effectively ending the nearly six-month-long paralysis of the Council regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.

    Resolution 2728 and its Implications

    Resolution 2728 calls for an immediate ceasefire during the month of Ramadan, which should be respected by all parties and lead to a lasting and sustainable ceasefire. It also demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, along with ensuring humanitarian access to address their medical and other needs. Furthermore, it demands that all parties comply with their obligations under international law regarding the detainees.

    The resolution carries political implications beyond its text, particularly due to the US decision to abstain, which enabled its adoption. In the past six months, the United States has vetoed five draft resolutions, three of which demanded a ceasefire in Gaza.

    Following the abstention, US explained that it did not oppose Resolution 2728 because its text aligns with Washington's position that any ceasefire text must include provisions for the release of hostages.16 The US said that a ceasefire would strengthen negotiations by Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and the US to achieve the release of hostages.

    The US decision not to veto the resolution signalled the White House's growing frustration with Israeli actions, including hospital attacks and aid restrictions in Gaza. Previously, the US had warned against Netanyahu's plans for a ground offensive in Rafah.17 Furthermore, criticism against the Biden administration is mounting, both domestically and internationally. Nonetheless, the US abstention did not signify a change in Washington's policy towards Israel. Last week, the US Congress approved US$ 3.8 billion in military aid to Israel and suspended funding to the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) until March 2025.

    Israel's response to the resolution indicates its reluctance to accept a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel has a history of flouting UNSC resolutions. For instance, in December 2016, the UNSC passed a resolution condemning Israeli settlements in Palestine as illegal and a violation of international law. Despite receiving 14 votes in favour and a US abstention, Israel chose to ignore this resolution.

    If Israel chooses the same path on Resolution 2728, the UNSC has limited options. The Council can pass another resolution specifically addressing the breach. This subsequent resolution may include punitive measures, such as imposing sanctions. However, it is unlikely that the US supports a resolution at the UNSC that imposes punitive measures against Israel. In such a scenario, Resolution 2728 would serve solely as a symbolic gesture, recognising the UNSC's limited influence on global peace and security issues. Nevertheless, the Council's ability to reach a consensus on the text, after five previous vetoes on the matter, may be viewed as a glimmer of hope.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

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    Pakistan Elections: The United States Factor March 26, 2024 Priyanka Singh

    Summary

    In the period after Imran Khan’s exit leading to the February 2024 elections, Pakistan underwent all that is anathema to the values the US claims to uphold. While President Joe Biden has not yet congratulated Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, US–Pakistan ties are likely to stabilise going forward, especially so given the bonhomie of the present government with the Pakistan Army.

    Amidst post-election chaos and frenzied speculations, Shehbaz Sharif instead of Nawaz Sharif, was sworn in as Pakistan’s Prime Minister for a second term. Earlier, Sharif became Prime Minister after Imran Khan was removed by a vote of no confidence in April 2022. Sharif’s reinstatement happened following a period of political tumult fuelled by controversies of rigging the election.1 The election process was controversially deferred beyond the 90-day limit after the Election Commission of Pakistan cited constitutional compulsions necessitating a delimitation exercise and the revision of electoral rolls.2

    Besides, Nawaz Sharif’s return from exile in October 2023, and later, swift exoneration in almost all his legal cases, seemed to have reduced the elections to an exercise staged by the army to showcase a semblance of democratic popular choice. Conversely, the PTI was prohibited from conducting a free campaign and was even stripped of its election symbol. Similar to 2018, the Army seemed in total control before and after the 2024 elections expected to be “neither free nor fair”.3

    Given the military’s indelible hold on Pakistan’s “broken politics”, the course of events following recent elections are hardly an aberration.4 Notwithstanding, the blatancy this time seems to have aggravated perceptions on the military’s fisted control. As the results tardily rolled out, the commotion was captured on live television in what looked like a “stunning moment” as “Pakistan’s military and intelligence apparatus systematically suppressed all forms of dissent”.5 Notably, the bizarreness of military’s interference with the results disenchanted even the non-sympathisers of PTI in the country.6

    For this scale of flagrancy, the elections result drew criticism from the US, the UN, the UK and the EU. The US administration’s stated desire to see “democratic aspiration” and “vibrant democracy” stood dashed.7 More than once, the State Department has called on the new government to probe electoral irregularities.8 The EU’s response, too, was to highlight “lack of a level playing field”, given “the inability of some political actors to contest the elections”.9 Pakistan has remained the US’s closest ally for decades. The Brief surveys US responses to the Pak elections and its likely implications on US–Pakistan bilateral ties.

    Pre-election Dynamics

    The elections were held after Imran Khan’s un-ceremonial exit in 2022. Imran Khan blamed a US perpetrated conspiracy for his ouster using the cipher claims.10 The disruption in US–Pakistan ties after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was credited to Imran Khan. Imran Khan made unsavoury remarks on the exit of US forces. Imran Khan’s controversial sojourn to Moscow on 23–24 February 2022 and his photo spectacle with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the occasion caused considerable heartburn in the US establishment, especially since it was on the eve of Russia launching its Ukraine military operation.

    Prior to his Moscow visit, Imran Khan made a four-day visit to China, another US adversary, to attend the Winter Olympics which was diplomatically boycotted by the West led by the Americans. During this visit, Khan expressed solidarity with Beijing on issues concerning human rights situation in Xinjiang, and the political unrest in Taiwan and Hong Kong.11 There was already an adverse build-up and a state of polarisation in US–Pakistan ties post American exit from Afghanistan amidst bloodshed and chaos. Khan’s moves seemed to have aggravated the same.

    Secondly, Pakistan elections were playing out in the US at the domestic politics level as well. This was evident when a bipartisan group of the Congress lawmakers wrote a letter to the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, urging the Biden administration to persuade the establishment in Pakistan to uphold democracy and respect the due public processes.12 Similarly, PTI sympathisers amongst US Congressmen also requested the UN oversight on the elections in Pakistan to ensure the electoral process is free from bias and prejudice against any one particular political party or outfit. The PTI has a significant support base amongst Pakistani citizens settled in the US. In the run-up to the elections, the world witnessed the severe clampdown against the PTI.

    Thirdly, discord with Imran Khan meant the US preferred to prevent his return. Asim Munir, Khan’s bete noire being the force behind his removal, visited the US in December 2023. Amongst other things, Munir reportedly was seeking US backing at a time when the army was committing gross atrocities against the PTI and Imran Khan.13 Munir was increasingly under scanner for the army’s actions in delaying the electoral process, which analysts highlighted annihilated Khan’s prospects by a “systematic dismantling of PTI” and its overall high-handedness in the aftermath of the 9 May 2023 incidents.14 The military in Pakistan “swayed many elections” and this time it wished to go “full tilt” using “familiar playbook” to vanquish the Frankenstein monster (PTI) it created in 2018.15

    Imran Khan’s Anti-American Pitch

    The politics of Imran Khan, the flamboyant cricketer-turn-politician with a supposedly modern liberal outlook, contradictorily, banked on vilification of the West, particularly the US, for having pushed Pakistan into abyss. If Khan’s assertions were to be believed, Pakistan was coerced to intervene in Afghanistan without material returns and Pakistan’s economic, political and security woes were caused by the wars it was fighting for the US.

    Much of Khan’s venom against the US came up during the Biden administration. Khan in his speech in the National Assembly on 30 June 2021 highlighted his aversion towards Pakistan becoming a front-line state in the War on Terror narrating how he opposed the move back then. Khan often blamed the US for using Pakistan and later discarding it like a “tissue paper”.16 Khan’s “absolutely not” on the possibility to allow the CIA to be able to conduct counter terrorism operations against the Al Qaeda and the ISIS is known to have also sourced American ire against his regime.17 After the Russia–Ukraine hostilities broke out, in March 2022, Khan at a public rally in Pakistan mocked the appeal from Western diplomats seeking to persuade Pakistan to vote against Russia at the UN, a development that supposedly “sealed his fate”.18

    In the run up to the US’s Afghanistan exit, anti-Americanism and Pakistan’s victimisation at the hands of the former, became a principle tenet/mainstay of Imran Khan’s politics. The idea may have been to deflect domestic attention from the vagaries of a sinking economy and the downturn in security. Notably, Pakistan, the US’s front-line ally is remarkably one of the most anti-US nations of the world.19

    Imran Khan’s promises of a Naya Pakistan failed, and in this context, whipping anti- Americanism in public rallies and media interaction was an attempt to tab into what has remained a pervasive undercurrent amongst Pakistani people. Additionally, Khan justified his Russia moves using India as an example to bolster the desire that Pakistan must veer towards pursuing an independent foreign policy balancing out both ends, Russia and the US, effectively.

    PTI’s Base in the US Diaspora

    There is broad support base for Imran Khan and his party, the PTI, amongst the Pakistani diaspora in the US. Imran Khan has in the past capitalised on the power and persuasion skills of the Pakistani American people. Therefore, when Khan participated in the Capital one event in 2019, the “political angle” became apparent, one that “shouldn't be understated” given PTI had “a big presence in US long before 2018 (and before 2013 too)”.20

    After the massive crackdown on the PTI in May 2023, members of the diaspora have been associated with a campaign that was launched to advocate and raise awareness on “atrocities by the State, highlighting forced disappearances, ‘death’ of democracy and custodial torture”.21 The campaign under “Pakistan under Siege” was carried out by Imran Khan’s supporters to sensitise the US and other western countries of the dwindling state of human rights and fascism in their country of origin.22 The motto of ‘Say No to State Violence’ was raised by PTI supporters overseas in order to garner sympathy and support for the beleaguered PTI leadership and the outfit.23

    Besides, in April 2022, as Imran Khan was forced to demit office after a no-confidence motion, there were “spontaneous” protests in the US. The supporters of Imran Khan came on the streets with PTI flags. The protesters were silent as there “were no posters, no banners, no placards. Just anger and frustration”.24

    In March 2023, as the nation approached scheduled general elections, the PTI hired services of a lobbying firm in the US, Praia Consultants LLC to establish “good relations with the United States and the Pakistani diaspora in the US”.25 The contract to avail services was carried out by the PTI chapter in Washington. The purpose was clearly to do some damage control since Khan directly blamed a US conspiracy for his removal.

    The PTI overseas supporters have staged focussed protests and rallies abroad against political parties of Pakistan like the PML-N even before Imran Khan became prime minister. In September 2014, the PTI–US chapter organised a protest in front of the UN office as Nawaz Sharif was making his speech at the General Assembly.26 PTI supporters protested in front of Nawaz Sharif’s London house after Imran Khan was removed from office, which they believed was a result of a deal between Sharif and the military.27 After the 9 May 2023 events, as the military high-handedly cracked down on the PTI, Imran supporters thronged the Hyde Park in London where Nawaz Sharif resided. In order to prevent law and order incidents, the Scotland Yard had to intervene with a two-day ban on gatherings.28

    US Policy Stances

    As noted above, the US factor remained a quintessential element in the 2024 Pakistan elections. This was particularly due to allegations of regime change by the PTI and its supporters. The US “caught in between a rock and a hard place” had a tight choice to make.29 The US’s “assertive stance” on Bangladesh elections served as an example to question why it “tread softly” on Pakistan’s.30 The pressure mounted from multiple vectors—the diaspora, a vigilant media, the Congress’ Pakistan Caucus and the PTI pressure groups. There was the inherent policy dilemma whether excessive public tutoring or oversight is perceived as interfering in the internal affairs of the state. Such US mindfulness could be “to avoid this perception, especially in a country mired with latent anti-Americanism, a phenomenon that holds negative implications for US interests in Pakistan”.31

    Exercising caution, on being probed about Imran Khan’s Arrest after 9 May violence, the White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre noted:

    “We are aware of the arrest of former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan. As we have said before, the United States does not have a position on one political candidate or party versus another”.32

    Later in August 2023, as Khan was arrested following conviction and a three-year sentence, the PTI reportedly lobbied that the US Congress must commission a fact-finding mission to Pakistan before holding a Congressional hearing on the same.33

    The Pakistani American Political Action Committee (PAKPAC) ran an outreach campaign to US Congressmen and got a letter signed from at least 90 Congressmen addressed to Secretary of State Blinken urging necessary steps to protect democracy in Pakistan. The PAKPAC as a bipartisan lobby group claims it “promotes Pakistan’s interests in the US Congress”.34 However, Shahbaz Gill, a PTI leader, was seen at their end engaging with the Congressmen in the wake of Imran Khan’s ouster.35 A day after the 9 May violence, Blinken noted, in the presence of UK’s then Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly:

    “I've seen the reports that you've alluded to and we just want to make sure that whatever happens in Pakistan is consistent with the rule of law with the constitution showing”.36  

    The momentum in the US on Pakistan elections gradually built up as the National Assembly’s tenure was reaching its end. In this context, a Congressional briefing on Human Rights and Democracy in Pakistan was organised in Washington on 26 July 2023. The panel was headed by Congressman Brad Sherman, member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and subject area expert, Asif Mahmood. The briefing’s agenda included: “human rights and democracy, free and fair elections, the importance of a free media, and the internal politics of U.S.-Pakistan relations”.37 The event was attended by State Department officials, select Congressmen and rights bodies such as Amnesty International.38 The Congressional briefing urged “free, fair, and internationally-monitored general elections in Pakistan”.39

    On the multiple convictions and jail terms for Imran Khan just before the elections, the US government chose to sideline them considering it “a legal matter for the Pakistani courts”.40 Meanwhile, the State Department claimed to monitor Pakistan’s elections marred by severe “infringements” with regard to “restrictions on media freedom; freedom of expression; including Internet freedom; and peaceful assembly and association”.41

    The controversially delayed results of Pakistani elections and the surprise victory of PTI- supported independents, seemed to have put the US in a fix. Questions were bound to arise seeking US response to allegations of large-scale rigging and subjugation of popular will.On the demand for an independent probe into allegations of election stealing, the State Department’s spokesperson Matthew Miller noted: “I don’t know what body they are proposing to conduct an independent investigation”.42 Miller further asserted:

    “Right now, it’s a matter of first course, legal system play itself out in Pakistan, that’s the appropriate first step to take, and we think that’s the step that should be taken”.43

    The Spokesperson further noted that the US government was open to options that were suggestive of the Biden administration refusing to recognise the new government set-up until an unbiased probe is accomplished.44

    The State Department after the elections noted:

    “We will work with the Pakistani government. Regardless of political party, to advance our shared interests and strive to bolster democratic institutions and broaden political participation”.45

    Similarly, the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs under the State Department observed that the US government will work towards:

    “Strengthening our partnership by promoting Pakistan’s democracy, the USPAK Green Alliance Framework, people-to-people ties, human rights, security cooperation, and trade and investment”.46

    The State Department separately noted the “undue restrictions” on speech and assembly and reprisal against members from the media.47

    Apart from this, Democrat representatives, including those that have been perceived friendly towards Pakistan, disapproved the opacity behind the election results in Pakistan. For instance, Ilhan Omar noted:

    “I am deeply troubled by reports of interference in this week’s elections in Pakistan … I call on the State Department to refrain from recognizing the results until credible, independent investigations have been conducted into the numerous allegations of misconduct.”48

    Representative Ro Khanna who was once part of other Pakistan Caucus in Congress and now Chair of the India Caucus, also criticised the reported malpractices in Pakistan elections stating:

    “I am deeply concerned by the growing evidence that the military is interfering and rigging the results to overturn the will of the Pakistani people. The US should not recognize a winner until all the facts are investigated”.49

    Senator Van Hollen wrote to Pakistani Ambassador to US, Masood Khan, to protest elections “marred by political violence, allegations of unfair restrictions on political expression, and accusations of vote rigging” urging Pakistan to “fully investigate” all such “allegations of fraud and electoral interference”.50

    There has been increasing pressure from the Congress, both Republican and Democrats, on the US government to reject the elections results.51 Representatives Susan Wild and John James of the House Foreign Affairs Committee insisted the “international community stand on the side of the people of Pakistan”.52 About a dozen US lawmakers led by Greg Casar wrote to President Biden to “withhold recognition” till the wrongs are fully investigated.53

    The mounting pressure may have influenced the US decision to be guarded on the election results, thereby, not resulting in a congratulatory message from Biden to Prime Minister Sharif. However, the US Envoy to Pakistan, Donald Blome, wished Sharif on social media platform X expressing desire to work “closely with the government and people of Pakistan on mutual interests”.54 US policymaking appears still searching for options to “calibrate a response that speaks to the political tumult and democratic backsliding” without exacerbating Pakistan’s polycrisis situation.55  

    Meanwhile, a hearing titled “Pakistan After the Elections: Examining the Future of Democracy in Pakistan and the US-Pakistan Relationship” of the Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia under the Committee on Foreign Affairs, was held on 20 March 2024.56 Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau for South and Central Asian Affairs at the U.S. State Department, whom Imran Khan accused of hatching a conspiracy in the past, was a witness at the open hearing.57 Notably, Lu faced interruptions from the audience as he explained the US administration’s position against Khan’s allegations. Lu rejected Khan’s “conspiracy theory” and called it “complete falsehood”.58

    Going Forward

    While the main propellant of the US–Pak strategic partnership was the Afghan matrix, the US continues to have a soft corner for Pakistan’s military, the permanent pillar/estate in Pakistan’s polity. The military’s omnipresence is unlike the sporadic civilian leadership that have struggled to survive tenures. It is the Pak military which gets the US what it desires, Zia ul Haq as it henchman in covert ops in 1970–1980s and Pervez Musharraf during the War on Terror (2021).

    Therefore, for decades, the moot question remained whether the world’s oldest democracy exercised dual standards in indiscriminately betraying peoples’ will in Pakistan despite the leverages it held on the power establishment. Given the nature of the complex transactional ties between the US and Pakistan, both are wedded in a web on mutual interests and prepared to forgo each other’s faults to unite in the hour of need. Respective ties with India, China or Russia are a factor only strong enough to cause transitory ruptures, never permanent.

    In the months after Imran Khan’s exit, leading to the February elections, Pakistan underwent all that is anathema to values the US claims to uphold. Be it muzzling the press or public expression and depriving a major social faction from their electoral rights by way of dismembering the PTI, the army left no stone unturned to prevent its return and ensure PML-N’s fate.

    Irrespective of the relatively harsh, though banal statements against rigging, a government of army’s choosing has obtained the reins of power in Islamabad. Calling the incumbent government as army’s puppets is standard in Pakistan’s polity. Nawaz Sharif called the Imran Khan government as the Army’s puppet not long ago.59 This time, cracks are showing within as a senior PML-N member called his own party’s government a puppet.60 The pattern re-establishes that the Army is supreme.

    Shehbaz Sharif’s previous government was already seeking to constructively assuage the US ties then stifled by Imran Khan’s unpredictability. Going forward, US–Pak ties are likely to stabilise as the Sharifs are a safe bet at the moment, especially given their apparent bonhomie with the military.

    Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

    South Asia Pakistan, Pakistan Politics, United States of America (USA) system/files/thumb_image/2015/pakistan-t_1_1.jpg

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