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    Terror in the Assam Hills Namrata Goswami November 21, 2006

    The two hill districts of Assam, North Cachar Hills and Karbi Anglong, are fascinating because these territories together are a microcosm of the larger ethnic profile of Northeast India. The indigenous peoples inhabiting this small area have tribal affiliations with far-flung groups in the surrounding hill states. They are Karbi (most dominant numerically), Dimasa, Jeme Naga, Kuki, Hmar, Lushai, Rangkhol, Khasi, Jaintia, Bodo and Tiwa.

    The two hill districts of Assam, North Cachar Hills and Karbi Anglong, are fascinating because these territories together are a microcosm of the larger ethnic profile of Northeast India. The indigenous peoples inhabiting this small area have tribal affiliations with far-flung groups in the surrounding hill states. They are Karbi (most dominant numerically), Dimasa, Jeme Naga, Kuki, Hmar, Lushai, Rangkhol, Khasi, Jaintia, Bodo and Tiwa. It is no wonder that the effects of the multiple insurgencies going on in the vicinity - Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura and plains of Assam - have gradually but inevitably spilled over into the two hill districts. This has become more likely given the rise of better communications in recent years. These so called "autonomous" hill districts of Assam are the least developed, kind of a forgotten backyard for the dominant Assamese who are not native to this area, being plainspeople of the Brahmaputra and Barak valleys. The latter is, however, dominated by ethnic Bengalis of East Pakistan origins.

    The Dimasas are an indigenous people of Assam and due to the tribulations of history have their present day home in the North Cachar Hills District. There are also a few Dimasa villages in Karbi Anglong and Cachar Districts. Dimasa organized militancy started with the Dimasa National Security Force, but lacking fizzle, its members surrendered en masse to the government. Subsequently, the Dima Halam Daogah (DHD) was formed in 1995, which is still a force to be reckoned with today. The DHD is premised on the ideology of carving out a separate Dimasa homeland "Dimaraji Kingdom" comprising the Dimasa inhabited areas of North Cachar Hills, Karbi Anglong, parts of Nowgaon district, and parts of Dimapur district of Nagaland. However, internal dissensions have led to the DHD's split into two outfits, one led by 'commander' Dilip Nunisa and the other by 'former commander' Jewel Gorlosa. The latter group has an alias, 'The Black Widow'.

    The other most dominant militant group is the United Peoples Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) of Karbi Anglong. Formed in 1999, the UPDS is a rebel group fighting for a separate Karbi homeland outside of Assam. The two insurgent groups have been engaged in a bitter turf battle for years, with violent clashes killing hundreds and rendering many more homeless in the villages dotting the hilly terrain of the two districts. According to a report by the Asian Centre for Human Rights, as a result of the ongoing conflict, nearly 44,016 ethnic Karbis and Dimasas have been displaced till October 2005 in Karbi Anglong, North Cachar Hills and Hojai sub-division of Nowgaon district. What makes matters worse is that these two groups lay claim to the same piece of land, especially in the Karbi Anglong district, which is largely dominated by the Karbi tribe.

    The Government of India had entered into a cease-fire with the UPDS effective from August 1, 2002, extended periodically till July 31, 2007, and with the DHD since January 1, 2003, extended periodically till December 31, 2006. However, violence broke out on September 26, 2005 when three Dimasa autorickshaw drivers were murdered at Tissom village near Diphu, the district headquarters of Karbi Anglong. In retaliation, five members of a Karbi family were killed at Hemari Terang village on October 2, 2005. Such retaliatory attacks continued throughout the later part of 2005. Most gruesome was the killing of 34 Karbi villagers on October 17, 2005 in Doyangmukh village of Karbi Anglong district. The DHD and UPDS rebels also set fire to 50 houses in the village. In this context, the villagers expressed anguish that they are increasingly becoming victims of armed clashes between the two rebel groups to neither of which they extend support nor have ethnic affinity.

    More recently, the anti-talk faction of the DHD, the Gorlosa faction, carried out an ambush in the North Cachar Hills on a railway team in October 2006, killing 11 persons, including seven Railway Protection Special Force (RPSF) personnel. Earlier in February 2006, 30 cadres of the Hmar People's Convention (Democratic) entered the North Cachar Hills from Manipur and set up camp in Jinam Valley, 80 km southeast of Haflong, the district headquarters. In connivance with the Hmar People's Convention, the Gorlosa faction made an attempt on the life of Dilip Nunisa, leader of the pro-talk DHD.

    The repeated killings of members of so-called rival ethnic groups are gradually vitiating the cordial atmosphere of concord that had existed between the two communities in the not too distant past. As usual, the state authorities are being taken unawares by the spate of violence and appear to be lacking the logistical requisites to launch a rescue and relief operation. The inaccessible nature of the terrain, crisscrossed by hills and rivers and dense forest, demands a counter-force equipped with sophisticated skills of mountain warfare in countering such hill-based ethnic insurgencies. Moreover, besides being a law and order problem, the conflict is between two ethnic rebel groups inhabiting a contiguous landscape. This requires a more sensitive approach rather than purely "hard core" policing measures.

    The government could tap into well-established bodies like the organisations for Dimasa and Karbi women. In tribal societies, women have a major role to play in the overall decision making of the village. (Manipur and Nagaland are good examples of women's role in conflict resolution and management). The State as well as district administration could hold meetings with other active civil society groups in these areas to find realistic ways of dealing with the growing crisis. Basic facilities like roadways, hospitals, schools and water supply could be improved to bring about a steep drop in people's hardships and ease up a hard hill life. It is not true to say that resources at the districts' disposal for development activities are meagre. A cursory glance at funds earmarked for these two hill districts in the Assam State treasury would reveal that they are more than sufficient to establish a "good enough" base for developmental purposes. For instance, under the Hill Areas Development Programme (HADP) of the Planning Commission, Assam was allocated Rs. 51.11 crores in 2003-04 and 2004-05 for the development of its two hill districts. Political parties do not help matters much either, with the Congress, the Asom Gana Parishad, and the Bharatiya Janata Party blaming each other for the volatile situation. These parties are clueless in finding a solution to the problem.

    The primary fear expressed in policy and security circles is the growing prowess of the DHD (Gorlosa faction) and the rapid spread of its activities across the landscape of North Cachar Hills and Karbi Anglong. Given the fact that the cadres are mostly young men from the area, their understanding of the local terrain is intrinsic and therefore crucial in carrying out sudden surprise strikes. Perhaps, this local intelligence skill is equipping the DHD faction with the ability to outmanoeuvre the security forces. Growing nexus with larger insurgent groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (IM) is also providing the DHD, especially the Gorlosa faction, with strategic and tactical guidelines, weapons and finance from across the border. New Delhi's lacklustre approach in rising up to the challenge of small insurgent groups is also becoming an obstacle in applying time-tested solutions to such crises. The pro-talk DHD faction chief, Dilip Nunisa, is threatening to pick up the gun again as his security related proposals to the Home Ministry are yet to invoke any meaningful response. The group's deputy commander-in-chief, Nairing Daulagupu, was badly wounded in Haflong by the Gorlosa faction in April 2006. The last peace talks with the Nunisa group were held in January 2006 and the group's demand for more security cover has not been met yet.

    The dynamics of the situation is a struggle to gain dominance with the objective of establishing a totalitarian, ethnically slanted future political domain in the two hill districts. This has degenerated into a free for all pattern of deadly strikes and retaliation between the two dominant peoples, namely the Karbis and Dimasas, with the other smaller groups also being drawn into the conflict. The other major point of conflict is the bloody feud between the DHD factions. What is also frightening is the discernible NSCN-IM influence on the DHD's ideology of territorial claim in Karbi Anglong. Very much like the NSCN-IM's aspiration for a greater Nagalim, contested narratives of territory and tribal affiliation notwithstanding, the DHD Gorlosa faction is laying claim to typically Karbi dominated areas that have only a sprinkling of Dimasa villages. This is a deadly recipe for greater violence and ethnic discord. As the law and order authority, the government has to contain the situation by clearly mapping the territories/peoples under consideration in any talks with these outfits. Dimasa land has to be clearly demarcated from Karbi land to discourage any extra-territorial claims. Out of area Dimasa villages could be integrated within a "Dimasa Tribal Council" very much on the lines of the indigenous peoples of the Americas, Australia and New Zealand. This arrangement would apply to Dimasas in both Karbi Anglong and Cachar districts. Overlapping/clashing jurisdictions have to be worked out parallel to successful models elsewhere. All claims/counter claims have to be ironed out through talks.

    The immediate ground measure would however be a strong military presence to discourage ethnic cleansing. This would also create conditions for enforcement of cease-fire ground rules especially in keeping the cadres of the UPDS and DHD in designated camps as agreed under the cease-fire agreements. It would also be beneficial to the affected communities if the Assam government were to set up an institutional mechanism to monitor the cease-fire on a "round the clock" basis and keep a vigilant count on internally displaced persons. Intelligence gathering by a mountain trained and combat hardened military team is crucial for early warning and assessment of probable strike areas in an otherwise densely forested region. For this to happen in an effective and efficient manner, it is crucial to recruit local youths who inherently possess a deep understanding of the terrain. Also, the government would then have the doubly more important security task of protecting the villages and families from where these youths are recruited into the intelligence team, to avoid possible retaliation by rebel groups.

    Though the task appears to be of a tall order, it is not impossible to achieve. There are many unemployed youths, who, if guided and trained well, would be an asset to the Indian military in these 'special' combat operations. Once security is ensured, more substantive measures of economic development and social harmony should be instilled by a well thought out and planned peace process. This must account for the complex ethnic dynamics. A sound rehabilitation package, which not only provides for reconstruction of destroyed houses, compensation for lost properties and food but also securing the affected areas must be set in place. The Indian state must be viewed by the local communities as a "welfare organism" motivated by a democratic ethos rather than one of a military nature, an image omnipresent in these hill areas on account of the frequent highly visible counter-insurgency operations. These remote hill villages must come to look upon the 'idea of India' as one of their own, in which they have high stakes. Time is short. The government needs to act fast, with vision and fortitude and determination. If not, the danger of violent insurgencies spreading its network to even smaller tribes in Assam appears all but inevitable.

    Assam, United Peoples Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) Terrorism & Internal Security IDSA COMMENT
    Sri Lanka: Between Hope and Despair M. Mayilvaganan November 21, 2006

    At present Sri Lanka is witnessing the worst fighting since the signing of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) on February 22, 2002. The fighting was sparked by the LTTE's blockade of the Maavilaru reservoir on July 22, 2006 and the Sri Lankan government's attempts to reopen it by force. Since then the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government have indulged in heavy fighting in the north and east over issues like Sampur and the A9 highway. This has again put a question mark on the prospects for peace and is causing internal and international despair.

    At present Sri Lanka is witnessing the worst fighting since the signing of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) on February 22, 2002. The fighting was sparked by the LTTE's blockade of the Maavilaru reservoir on July 22, 2006 and the Sri Lankan government's attempts to reopen it by force. Since then the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government have indulged in heavy fighting in the north and east over issues like Sampur and the A9 highway. This has again put a question mark on the prospects for peace and is causing internal and international despair. On the other hand, the constitution of an All Party Committee on the ethnic issue, the "historic" agreement between the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the opposition United National Party (UNP), and the appointment of a Commission of Enquiry to probe human rights violations, all provide 'hope'.

    The current standoff started with the crisis over the Maavilaru waterway in Trincomalee district, when the LTTE closed the sluice gate in protest against the reported insensitivity of the Sri Lankan government in addressing the drinking water problem of Tamils at Eachchilampattu. Colombo had earlier given the green signal for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) project on drinking water supply in the areas under its control in spite of protest from people living in the "uncleared" areas. As a result, without providing any room for negotiations, the local Tamils along with the LTTE closed the sluice gates of the water canal, thus blocking water to some 30,000 acres of ripe paddy fields and 60,000 people in nearby Sinhala settlements. The issue got aggravated when the Sri Lankan government began using military force to settle the issue.

    After regaining control over the Maavilaru reservoir through military force, Colombo subsequently went ahead and gained control over the LTTE base at Sampur, which was perceived as a threat to the Navy's base and harbour at Trincomalee. This raises the question of why in both these instances the LTTE 'withdrew' and avoided an escalation in conflict? Why were the government forces going ahead with attacks on other targets in the north and east even at the time of peace talks with the LTTE?

    The LTTE withdrew from the frontline in both instances after initial defensive attacks due to the reported lack of force to match the government's K-fir jets and ground forces. Besides, the Tigers were careful to keep casualties to the minimum possible at this stage when 'recruitment' and financial mobilisation are being constrained by the international community's strong pressure. The LTTE's efforts have been at both the military and diplomatic levels. Militarily, it is offering stiff resistance to the advancing Sri Lankan Army, the immediate aim being to gain respite from the present military operations and regroup rather than fighting a full-fledged war. Diplomatically, the LTTE is urging the international community to stop the Sri Lankan government's military offensive in the north and east, by warning that it would otherwise completely withdraw from the talks.

    Conversely, the Sri Lankan government is determined to continue the military offensive, including aerial bombardment, and is aiming to push its Forward Defence Line (FDL) beyond the strategic Elephant Pass, which it lost to the LTTE in April 2000. With the present military advantage on the ground, the government hopes to gain leverage over the Tigers in any negotiation apart from maintaining the morale of its troops at a high level. In addition, it seems to believe that military success will help check the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna's anti-peace campaign.

    Interestingly, however, both sides are claiming that the present hostilities are "defensive moves" while at the same time blaming the other for "aggression." Similarly, both are hailing the peace process and hoping that the international community will support their respective claims and efforts to boost the flow of money into their coffers. Nevertheless, international pressure has not prevented the LTTE from carrying out attacks and retaliation. Similarly, the government too is not in the mood to discontinue its military operation. For its part, Norway along with other co-chairs of the peace process is engaged in stopping the ongoing operations and bringing both parties back to the negotiation table. With the break down of peace talks on October 28-29, 2006 at Geneva over the issue of re-opening of the strategic A9 highway linking south Sri Lanka with Jaffna peninsula, fears of another war have deepened.

    Despite intense fighting and failure of the Geneva II talks, the prospects for resolution of the conflict look bright at present, given the agreement between the ruling SLFP and the opposition UNP. In addition, the setting up of an All Party Committee and a Commission of Enquiry on Human Rights Violations are also significant in this regard. Particularly, the October 23, 2006 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two major political parties on the ethnic question is a significant development in the five decades- long conflict and brings hope to the fatigued people. According to G. L. Peiris, former Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs and former Chief Negotiator of Peace, the agreement between the two main Sri Lankan parties "provides room for cautious optimism in the efforts to find a viable solution to the island's ethnic conflict." The MoU has provisions to ensure that the provinces have enough fiscal resources to make devolution of power meaningful. Besides, it also contains clauses to ensure that no particular ethnic or political group enjoys over-riding power or influence.

    What is however required at this juncture is the sustaining of this 'hope' as a good confidence building measure with the Tamils on the basis of consensus between the SLFP and the UNP so as to trim down distrust between the two communities. Talks should be initiated on the basis of a 'southern consensus' for finding an amicable solution, and not misused for prolonging the conflict. The prospects for the upcoming talks depend entirely on the priority placed by the parties in using the opportunity to address the long-standing issues of the Tamils.

    Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Sri Lanka South Asia IDSA COMMENT
    Russia is Harnessing its Energy Potential to Regain its Former Glory Nivedita Das Kundu November 21, 2006

    Russia's energy potential is undeniably playing a significant role in its geopolitical and economic revival. Viewing energy as the major source for its growth, Russia is modernizing and diversifying its energy sector. It has been playing a significant role in supplying energy to many countries of the world. It has performed its role consistently and reliably during the past many years and is expected to do so in the foreseeable future as well.

    Russia's energy potential is undeniably playing a significant role in its geopolitical and economic revival. Viewing energy as the major source for its growth, Russia is modernizing and diversifying its energy sector. It has been playing a significant role in supplying energy to many countries of the world. It has performed its role consistently and reliably during the past many years and is expected to do so in the foreseeable future as well. Today, it is playing a positive role in addressing a broad range of issues related to energy security and is emerging as a global energy supplier.

    Being the world's largest natural gas producing nation (with 1,700 trillion cubic feet of the fuel or 27 per cent of the world's total), Russia is the primary natural gas supplier to Europe and the former Soviet States. Recently, Gazprom, Russia's state-run natural gas monopoly which holds more than one-fourth of the world's natural gas reserves and operates the country's natural gas pipeline network, and its European partners have ventured into new transportation projects, like the North European gas pipeline project, to substantially increase Russian gas deliveries to Europe. This large pipeline, which is to come into effect from 2010, will run under the Baltic Sea and connect Russian pipelines directly with the northern part of Germany. This new development will make it possible for Russia to act as a key and reliable supplier not only to Europe but also to other parts of the world.

    To meet domestic and international demands in the near future, Russia plans to explore its untouched deposits in its far north and eastern Siberia. There are several giant gas fields offshore in the Barents and Kara Seas as well as onshore on Yamel peninsula. However, these areas have a challenging working environment. The development of these reserves would require significant risk and major capital investments. There will also be a requirement of immense human and technological resources for production and marketing purposes. Russia is now therefore looking for compatible international partners to overcome these challenges and achieve maximum benefit both commercially and technically.

    Energy is playing a significant role in propelling Russia's economic growth. Oil and gas accounted for approximately 70 per cent of the growth of industrial production during 2001-05. The oil sector alone accounted for a little less than 45 per cent of the country's economic growth. This implies that energy resources directly contributed to more than one-third of Russia's GDP growth over the period 2001-05. The consumption boom in Russia has been due to the surplus generated by rapidly increasing volumes of oil and gas exports. Russia now sees its energy potential as the viable means to propel its economy.

    The dispute over the price hike for Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine and Georgia during January 2006 generated international attention on Russia's surging capability and power derived from growth in the energy sector. Russia cutting-off gas supplies and increasing the prices on supplies to Georgia and Ukraine displayed an assertive policy with an intention to curb their pro-western foreign policy orientation. The effects of this action was not merely limited to Georgia and Ukraine, for it provided a clear indication with respect to the consequences that could befall Europe should it similarly display any anti-Russian manifestations. The supply crisis thus demonstrated not only Ukraine and Georgia's, but also Europe's vulnerability. The Russian action reflected the possibility of using energy supplies as a tool to control and retain its influence.

    Over a period of time, Russia has brought to an end the old barter system in the energy sector and this has made foreign investments in its energy sector more attractive because foreign investors were averse to the barter system. This development has further boosted Russia's overall market share in the energy sector. Beyond fossil fuel energy sources, Russia is also showing keen interest in the nuclear energy market.

    Russia has also expanded its production ties in the energy sector with the Central Asian Republics. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have signed long-term contracts to supply their output to Russia and broaden the energy transport infrastructure within the former Soviet Union. Russia and Kazakhstan recently agreed to double the output capacity of the Caspian pipeline Consortium (CPC). The output capacity of CPC, which is a 935-mile pipeline linking oil fields in western Kazakhstan with Russia's Black Sea coast, would be increased from the current 28 million to 67 million metric tons. Russia and Kazakhstan have also signed an agreement to jointly develop three large deposits - in Kurmangazy, Khyalynsk and Tsentralnoye in the Central Asian region. It appears that within seven to eight years the increase in oil production in the Central Asian region would be backed by the transportation possibilities from Russia.

    Apart from Russia's near abroad and European states, China and Japan have also begun to compete with each other to attract and support Russian pipelines that might be able to fulfil their energy requirements. At the same time, Russia is also working on new pipeline projects that would reach Asian markets, including China, Korea and Japan. Recently, Russia signed three major oil and gas deals with China, between China's National Petroleum Cooperation (CNPC) on the one hand and Rosneft, Gazprom and Transneft on the other. Russia is also planning to extend its supply to markets beyond the conventional pipeline systems through the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is now trying to use LNG to leverage the delivery of large quantities of oil and gas to diverse markets and further develop commercial opportunities and globalise its economy.

    Increased oil revenues have made Russia emerge as the world's largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. This led to the creation of a 'Stabilisation Fund' in 2004 designed to fund social welfare projects and act as a reserve to tide over future economic crises. Today, Russia is in a position to pay off the entire Soviet-era debt of about £12.5 b to the Paris Club. The 'Stabilization Fund' is seen as a tool to ensure macroeconomic stability, to create conditions for the initiation of structural reforms, reduce economic dependency on foreign markets and diversify Russia's economy.

    By harnessing its energy potential, Russia wishes to win over others. It is now using petrodollars for economic diversification and growth. Energy appears to be an asset to re-emerge as a great power, balance the budget, fund national defence and provide strategic leverage over others countries. Revenues from energy exports are fuelling strong growth in sectors like services, consumer goods, retail and real estate. Russia's ambition thus seems to be not just limited to becoming a prime supplier of energy to the world market but to eventually re-emerge as a great power.

    Russia, Energy Cooperation Europe and Eurasia IDSA COMMENT
    External Linkages of Meitei Militants T. Khurshchev Singh November 21, 2006

    The arrest of three United National Liberation Front (UNLF) leaders at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi on October 2, 2006 necessitates an evaluation of the external linkages of Meitei militant outfits. Apart from having close connections with their sister outfits in the north-eastern states, major Meitei outfits like the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the UNLF have been attempting to revamp themselves by tying up with foreign outfits and agencies directly or indirectly.

    The arrest of three United National Liberation Front (UNLF) leaders at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi on October 2, 2006 necessitates an evaluation of the external linkages of Meitei militant outfits. Apart from having close connections with their sister outfits in the north-eastern states, major Meitei outfits like the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the UNLF have been attempting to revamp themselves by tying up with foreign outfits and agencies directly or indirectly. In recent years, Manipur has recorded the highest militancy-related fatalities in the North East. For example, out of the 62 security forces' personnel killed in the North East region between January and September 27, 2006, 35 (56.45 per cent) were reported in Manipur alone.

    The three UNLF leaders - Jayanta Kumar (Deputy Secretary of the group), Ghanshyan Kumar and Shyam Kumar - were arrested while trying to board a Kathmandu bound Indian Airlines flight. The operation was jointly carried out by the Delhi Police, Intelligence Bureau and the Immigration Department. Police sources speculate about the possibility of their attempt to set up a base in Delhi. However, the three UNLF leaders reportedly stated that they were only using Delhi as a transit point on their way to Kathmandu. The pen-drive and the compact disc confiscated from them contained detailed information on the deployment of army and paramilitary forces in the north-eastern states, information about the party's funding as well as its cadre strength. According to the information provided by the three arrested UNLF leaders, the total strength of the outfit was 2,000. They added that the strength of the second largest group in the state, PLA, was 1,500, including 100 to110 hard-core members.

    The arrest of the three UNLF leaders who were going to attend a meeting with the outfit's chief R.K Meghen is an indication of the extent of their network, including attempts to establish linkages with the Maoist guerrillas in Nepal. Nepal's Maoists already have close connections with several Northeast outfits like ULFA and NSCN (IM). The forging of deep linkages between the Meitei outfits and Nepal's Maoists would be quite easy given sociological similarities and the latter's stance against Indian policies. Moreover, Maoists' domination of a significant portion of Nepal's territory means that the country could well emerge as a safe haven for the Meitei rebels. In addition, Nepal is the largest ISI hub in South Asia from where it operates to destabilise India.

    It has been reported that the ISI and Bangladesh's Directorate General Field Intelligence (DGFI) have been playing an active role in fostering the militant activities of the UNLF. Like elsewhere in India, the Northeast also has a large number of ISI operatives. Though they are confined to the Tinsikia region of Assam, they have the capability to penetrate all militant-affected areas including Manipur. The bomb blast at a Hindu temple in Imphal on August 16, 2006, which claimed four lives and injured 66 others including two Americans and two French nationals, was an attack aimed at rousing ethnic/communal passions between Meiteis and Nagas who live in the hill districts of Manipur. Surprisingly, none of the outfits in the region claimed responsibility for the attack, with even the prime suspect, Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), a Meitei militant outfit, denying its involvement.

    Manipur has more than 30 militant groups, five of which are proscribed terrorist outfits; some are active, while a few are not. Most of the active groups use Bangladesh and Myanmar, while at the same time maintaining close ties with some foreign agencies in other Asian countries such as Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand and Nepal. For instance, the UNLF's connection with foreign agencies can be traced back to the 1960s when its then leader Arambamm Samarendra Singh established ties in erstwhile East Pakistan. Later, Nameirakpam Bisheswar Singh's (former PLA chief) visited Lhasa in 1975 to secure Beijing's support. Recently, the Thai connection of Meitei outfits was revealed when Bangkok repatriated four PLA cadres back to India, whom it had arrested in March 1997 with a cache of arms and charged with attempts to smuggle arms and explosives and travelling without proper documents.

    Owing to similar anthropological aspects and geographical proximity, it is easy for armed rebels in the north-east to develop kinship with most of the South East Asian nations as well as to seek refuge to propagate their anti-Indian stance. As E Rammohan, former advisor to the governor of Manipur, emphasised at an IDSA seminar (October 11, 2006) the eastern border of India is much more under threat than the western border. Manipur shares a 398 kilometre-long porous border with Myanmar. In fact, the road between Tammu (Myanmar) and Moreh (Manipur) is the gateway to East Asian countries, where illicit arms and drugs smuggling are rampant and where militants are likely to reap benefits by expanding their networks. With the help of secessionist groups in Myanmar like Karen National Union (KNU) and Kachin Independent Army (KIA), Meitei outfits have established training camps along the Indo-Burmese border. They have also done so in Bangladesh under the aegis of the government. They have been covertly or overtly maintaining linkages with Pakistan and Bangladesh through active Muslim militant outfits like the People's United Liberation Front (PULF) and the Islamic National Front (INF). Interestingly, in an incident on November 10, 2006, two PULF hardcore members were arrested from Imphal airport while en route to Guwahati for an important meeting with the outfit's chief. The Assam-based ULFA has been the facilitator for buying arms from Cambodia and Bhutan for Meitei militant organizations.

    Illicit arms uncovered in Manipur and other north-eastern states indicate that the weapons have originated from countries like China, US, Russia, Belgium, UK, Czechoslovakia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Thailand, Cambodia and Bangladesh, and that they are being smuggled through routes along the Indo-Burma border as well as via sea through Cox bazaar and Chittagong in Bangladesh. Most of the weapons being used by the outfits in the region are Chinese-made and they are comparatively more sophisticated than those wielded by the Indian army. Weapons such as Lathod M-76 (40mm grenade launcher), AGL, Chinese SAR rifles, AK series of Rifles, M-16 rifle, Machine guns, 60mm mortars, pistols, RPGs, sniper rifles are commonly used. Most of these weapons are bought in South-East Asian black markets. At the same time, Chinese arms manufacturing companies like Norinco are also clandestinely supplying arms to these outfits. Thus, easy availability of arms in the area fuels violence in the region.

    Though Manipur is considered to be a tiny state in the large Indian landmass, the sizeable casualty figures for both civilians and security forces inflicted by militancy-related violence there is disproportionately large. Any further expansion in the capabilities of Meitei militants and their networks within and outside the country would pose an even more serious challenge. The Indian security establishment needs to take the threat posed by Meitei militants more seriously and make concerted efforts to staunch the spread of their networks within and outside the country.

    Northeast India, United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People's Liberation Army (PLA), People's United Liberation Front (PULF), Meitei Militants Terrorism & Internal Security IDSA COMMENT
    Fragging Cases in the Indian Army B. S. Sachar November 20, 2006

    Cases of soldiers serving in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) turning their weapons on themselves or their fellow soldiers have been reported recently. This is a cause of serious concern and the Army is taking necessary measures to check this disconcerting trend. Various terms have been associated with fratricidal killings like 'fragging' (after US soldiers in the Vietnam war rolled fragmentation grenades into the tents of unpopular officers) and 'running amok' ('amok' is a Malay word meaning 'out of control').

    Cases of soldiers serving in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) turning their weapons on themselves or their fellow soldiers have been reported recently. This is a cause of serious concern and the Army is taking necessary measures to check this disconcerting trend. Various terms have been associated with fratricidal killings like 'fragging' (after US soldiers in the Vietnam war rolled fragmentation grenades into the tents of unpopular officers) and 'running amok' ('amok' is a Malay word meaning 'out of control'). It is necessary to understand why a disciplined soldier loses self-control and resorts to such extreme violence. Is it because of prolonged deployment in insurgency areas and stressful working conditions as it is made out to be by the media, or is there something else that misses the eye?

    Though most of the incidents are taking place in operational areas (J&K and North East), the root cause is, however, not prolonged exposure to dangerous situations. Incidents of terrorist related violence and attacks on soldiers in J&K have actually registered a sharp decline this year. If fratricidal killings were related to combat exposure, then they should have shown a downtrend and not an increase as has happened, demonstrating that such a correlation is flawed. It will be quite revealing to know that more and more personnel are volunteering to serve tenure in the Rashtriya Rifles (specialist counter insurgency force deployed in J&K) and a number of them are even requesting for extended or second tenures. This is due to the good quality of life, better pay and allowances, improved facilities and timely leave in operational areas.

    An analysis carried out by the Army has revealed that in a majority of cases fratricidal killings were triggered by stress linked to personal problems such as property disputes and marital discord. The findings reveal that only 0.3 per cent cases were due to operational stress while the remainder of 99.7 per cent was due to family factors. With the breakdown of the joint family system, soldiers are anxious about their families left behind at home. The growing costs of sustenance and education are difficult to meet. Most cases of suicide and fragging have occurred soon after troops returned to duty from leave. This indicates that soldiers who go over the edge are severely troubled by domestic issues which they are unable to resolve. When a soldier is perturbed over a family problem or returns back from leave frustrated at his helplessness in getting his rightful due, he gets affected psychologically. An estranged individual can then turn the loaded weapon (which is always with him in operational areas) on himself or, on an immediate provocation over an issue with his comrades or officer, on them. The analysis clearly reveals that the maximum number of 'shooting' cases take place within a few days of soldiers coming back from leave.

    The Army is taking short- and long-term measures to root out the problem like permitting families to stay in operational areas, better infrastructure and facilities and improved personnel management. Officers, religious teachers and Junior Commissioned Officers (JCOs) are also being trained in counselling techniques and to detect early signs of stress and depression. Emphasis has also been laid on strengthening the buddy system, by which soldiers can share emotions and feelings with someone they can trust. This also provides a channel of feedback to commanders if something amiss is noted in the behaviour of an individual soldier. Standing operating procedures are being revised for carriage of weapons in operational areas. Zila Sainik Boards (associations of ex-servicemen) have also been asked to liase closely with the district administration to ensure soldiers' problems are addressed timely.

    There is also a requirement for the civil administration to address problems faced by the soldiers and their kin on priority. With the fractionalisation of land holdings, a large number of soldiers get bogged down by property disputes with close relatives. The increasing lawlessness in rural areas is affecting their families and adding to their worries. The concerned civil administration departments need to understand that the soldiers cannot get leave beyond a prescribed limit and must therefore resolve to provide a helping hand. In the past, recommendations of commanding officers to the district administration about problems being faced by personnel under their command carried weight, but now they are largely overlooked. This must be corrected and an institutional arrangement set in place to give due consideration to the problems faced by soldiers serving in non-family stations and operational areas.

    Fragging Military Affairs IDSA COMMENT
    The Neutral Caretaker Government Interregnum in Bangladesh Smruti S. Pattanaik November 09, 2006

    The Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which came to power in 2001, completed its term on October 28, 2006 amidst violent protests that saw 24 people losing their lives. Rejecting the BNP's nominee for the post of Chief Adviser of the caretaker government, the 14 party opposition alliance led by the Awami League (AL) called for a strike to press for an alternate Chief Advisor as well as for electoral reforms. A political crisis has, however, been averted by the country's President, who assumed the additional responsibility of the Chief Advisor.

    The Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which came to power in 2001, completed its term on October 28, 2006 amidst violent protests that saw 24 people losing their lives. Rejecting the BNP's nominee for the post of Chief Adviser of the caretaker government, the 14 party opposition alliance led by the Awami League (AL) called for a strike to press for an alternate Chief Advisor as well as for electoral reforms. A political crisis has, however, been averted by the country's President, who assumed the additional responsibility of the Chief Advisor. As Dhaka limps back to normalcy, expectations of free and fair elections and transfer of power now rest entirely on President Iajuddin Ahmed.

    The mechanism of Neutral Caretaker Government (NCG) is a constitutional innovation in Bangladesh. Its role is to conduct and supervise elections in a free and fair manner. In 1990 when the Ershad military regime was forced to hand over power due to popular resistance, an independent neutral body to conduct elections came to be considered necessary to ensure that the military's influence over the governmental machinery was nullified.

    The agitating political parties led by the Awami League, the Bangladesh National party and the Jamaat-e-Islami issued a joint declaration, which stated that "the head of the interim caretaker government must be a non-partisan neutral person who will not be associated with any political party directly or indirectly, or he would not be contesting for the posts of President, Vice President or member of parliament. No minister of his caretaker government will participate in any elections." The caretaker government that was eventually formed was headed by Chief Justice Mr. Shabuddin, around whom a consensus had evolved. The neutral, efficient and free and fair manner in which the 1991 elections were conducted was a watershed in Bangladesh after years of military rule. This experience later formed the basis for institutionalising the mechanism of caretaker governments before elections.

    The restoration of parliamentary democracy and the assumption of power by Begum Khaleda Zia in 1991 brought to the fore the conflicting dynamics of the Mujib and Zia political lineages. The bitter past came to dominate their relationship and polarised society to a large extent. Not only did personal animosity assumed political colour, but also frequent boycotts of Parliament and hartal came to mark the new democratic political order. The lack of democratic practices and non-co-operation between the two major political parties hampered the consolidation of democracy. The reported rigging and malpractices in the by-elections in Mirpur in 1993 and in Magura in 1994 undermined the credibility of the Election Commission as well as of the BNP government. Under these circumstances and given the prevailing mistrust and suspicion, the institutionalisation of caretaker government to conduct free and fair elections was demanded. When the ruling BNP rejected this demand, the Awami League, the Jatiyo Party and the Jamaat Islami resigned from the 147 parliamentary seats that they together held. Though the speaker refused to accept their resignation, the opposition parties ceremonially vacated their seats and continued with their boycott. In spite of the opposition's refusal to participate in the electoral process, the BNP went ahead with the conduct of elections in February 1996 and even formed a government. But it was soon brought to its knees when government officials including civil servants expressed their inability to carry out orders given by an illegitimate government. Thereupon the BNP stepped down and accepted the holding of fresh elections for the seventh parliament under a neutral caretaker government.

    Before the elections were held, however, on March 21, 1996, the sixth parliament approved a bill granting constitutional status to the NCG under Chapter 2, A of the constitution, which stated that the non-party 'neutral' caretaker government shall be collectively responsible to the President. It would be headed by a Chief Advisor and would consist of ten advisors. Article 58C, clause 3 reads: "The President shall appoint as Chief Adviser the person who among the retired Chief Justices of Bangladesh retired last and who is qualified to be appointed as an advisor…" It also lays down that if the retired Chief justice is not available or is not willing to hold this office, the President should appoint as Chief Advisor the person who among the retired Chief Justices of Bangladesh retired immediately before the last Chief Justice. As an alternative, if no retired Chief Justice were to be available, the President could appoint as Chief Advisor a person who among the retired judges of the Appellate Division retired last, and in case even he is not available or not willing the President shall appoint the retired judge of the Appellate Division who retired immediately before the last such retired judge. The Awami League and the BNP won the elections in 1996 and 2001, respectively, and each time the losing party accused the NCG of facilitating the other party's victory.

    The current constitutional crisis had its genesis when it became clear that retired Chief Justice K. M Hasan, who was earlier associated with the BNP in 1979, is going to take over as head of the caretaker government. His appointment was confirmed when the government brought in a constitutional amendment to increase the retirement age of judges, thereby making Hasan the last retired Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The Opposition's rejection of his candidacy and pressure from the civil society led him to decline the post of Chief Advisor. It was the resulting vacuum that forced President Iajuddin to take over as Chief Advisor to the caretaker government. The Bangladesh Constitution indeed provides for the President to assume such a responsibility, though Iajuddin's move generated controversy because he had not exhausted all other options available to him under the constitution.

    The Awami League, which had earlier opposed the President taking over as head of the NCG, has decided to adopt a wait and watch policy. It submitted an 11-point demand to the President and has given a deadline for its fulfilment, which, it feels, would prove the President's neutrality. What made the AL accept Iajuddin as the chief of NCG was the fear that if it continues with its street demonstration strategy there was a possibility of the President employing the armed forces to restore law and order - a cause for apprehension given Bangladesh's history of military rule. There are reports that some Western donor countries also played an important role in persuading the political parties to be accommodative in this regard.

    Three issues have assumed importance and have a direct bearing on the electoral process: (1) the Election Commissioner who is considered a BNP sympathizer, (2) the issue of the voters list, and (3) the administrative reshuffle carried out by the previous BNP government.

    The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) played an important role in preparing a fresh voters list, ignoring the High Court's direction to update it. There were allegations that the enumerators deliberately excluded the names of some members of the minority community and other AL supporters. The earlier list prepared by the CEC contained 9.13 crore voters. But this was struck down by the Supreme Court, which directed the EC to update the already existing list. The current list, after the court's direction, stands at 9.30 crore. The 2001 report of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics states that if all the people above 18 are listed and no death has occurred, the current voters list should be 8.02 crore. There is hardly any time left to correct the voters list and an election held on the basis of this list is likely to be controversial.

    Before relinquishing power, the BNP government undertook an administrative reshuffle. Newspapers have reported that most of the 700 posts to which the BNP appointed its own sympathizers are related to election activities. It often becomes a problem for the caretaker government to transfer and reappoint these officials. Appointments are made in such a fashion that if one officer were to be replaced there is a chance that the succeeding officer could be a BNP sympathiser. Though the caretaker Chief has made some changes in the administration, a lot more needs to be done. After taking over, the interim caretaker government has transferred some top officials. But it is alleged that this reshuffle would not have much of an impact since some of these controversial officers have been placed in better positions to influence the elections For example, two key secretary level positions in the administration - that of the home and establishment ministries - have been given to officials whose closeness to the immediately preceding government is well known and sources fear that these vital new appointments might influence the next election in favour of the parties from which they had obtained benefits. Moreover, the Establishment Secretary will be in charge of all transfers and appointment, which proves to be crucial for the forthcoming elections. It is important to mention here that the government appointed a total of 328 candidates as Upazilla Election Officers on September 21, 2006. Out of these, 150 are leaders or activists of the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal (JCD), the student organisation of the BNP.

    The most controversial issue is the reconstitution of the Election Commission, which is a prerequisite for free and fair elections. M. A. Aziz, the current Chief Election Commissioner, is a controversial figure and one of the Opposition's demands has been to remove him from the post. Efforts are being made to persuade him to resign so as to avoid a constitutional crisis. With the BNP and its allies openly supporting him, the Chief Election Commissioner has refused to resign.

    Restructuring the Election Commission remains an important issue. Since the post of the EC is a constitutional position, the caretaker government does not have the authority to replace him. The NCG is trying to avert a political crisis by appointing four additional commissioners to neutralise the four politicised commissioners, including the Chief Election Commissioner, and thus make the functioning of the EC less arbitrary and more consensual. Similarly, there is hardly any time left for correcting the bloated voter's list and remove the names of fake voters. As Bangladesh gears for another political impasse and uncertainty over these issues, the two major political parties are preparing for yet another showdown in the streets, which is likely to be violent and bloody and probably would be just one of the many incidents that will characterize the political scene in the run up to the forthcoming elections.

    Bangladesh, Elections South Asia IDSA COMMENT
    While China Scrambles Africa Builds Hope Nivedita Ray November 09, 2006

    While commemorating 50 years of China's diplomatic ties with Africa, the China-Africa Summit, held on November 4-5, 2006 adopted a three-year action plan to deepen the existing political and economic links. This Summit, being one of the largest summits ever hosted in China's modern history, not only reflects the importance China places on its relations with Africa, but also clearly illustrates the value that the continent now attaches to this emerging Asian power vis-a-vis the West.

    While commemorating 50 years of China's diplomatic ties with Africa, the China-Africa Summit, held on November 4-5, 2006 adopted a three-year action plan to deepen the existing political and economic links. This Summit, being one of the largest summits ever hosted in China's modern history, not only reflects the importance China places on its relations with Africa, but also clearly illustrates the value that the continent now attaches to this emerging Asian power vis-a-vis the West. The enthusiasm with which African leaders have attended this summit in large numbers seems to indicate that Africa has pinned a lot of hope and expectations on China for its future prospects, though it remains to be seen how far the continent will be benefited from this Summit.

    This Summit, an outcome of six years of booming bilateral trade and increased co-operation in various sectors, is set against a time when criticisms and concerns abound regarding China's role in Africa. Perhaps, through this Summit, China is trying to project its influence in Africa as well as its interest and concern for not only promoting trade and investment, but also Africa's development. However, if it is genuinely meant for Africa's development, this Summit is not the first of its kind. In the past various summits have been held to help Africa develop. Countries like the UK, France, and Japan have also hosted Summits for the same purpose. The Afrique-France summit, the UK Commonwealth Summit, the Tokyo Summit on aid and development, and many other gatherings have all been endeavours made for alleviating poverty and underdevelopment in Africa. However, till date, none of these summits have led to any substantial success except for the fact that a few countries have shown some signs of growth. So the question remains as to whether this grand China-Africa Summit is articulating something very different and special that will benefit Africa in real terms. But the answer is not very simple.

    The three-year action plan and eight-point development agenda speak of various offers and initiatives taken in various sectors, which, to a certain extent, do offer some hope for Africa's development. For instance, negotiations on some 2500 trade deals, doubling of China's aid by 2009, increasing tariff-free import items from the least developed nations, providing US $3 billion in preferential loans and establishing a special fund of $5 billion to encourage Chinese investment in Africa, have been greatly welcomed by African leaders. But will this really constitute a panacea or "neo-colonialism" which China has been accused of. Although China has been claiming that it is seeking a relationship that is win-win for both parties, there are concerns regarding Africa becoming more dependent even as China gears up to access Africa's abundant raw materials and developing the continent as a market for Chinese goods.

    With political colonization out of the way, China is today undoubtedly trying to consolidate its economic influence in the region. Since 2000, trade between China and Africa has nearly quadrupled, from $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion. For Africa, China is the third largest trading partner next only to the United States and France. Africa has a slight surplus in its trade with China, to which it exports mainly oil, minerals, and imports manufactured goods. In the coming years this trade pattern is likely to continue. This is quite apparent from the kind of initiatives that have been taken in the recent summit. China will try to secure more natural resources to feed its growing economy and at the same time will seek to develop fresh markets for its manufactures. Already Chinese businesses and investment, driven by state money, are widespread all over Africa. In Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, China is pursuing equity oil. For cotton it is dependent on Burkina Faso and Mali, while Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo serve as sources for platinum and copper. It acquires timber from South Africa, Gabon and Cameroon. It is therefore no wonder that China is holding a Summit of such magnitude and talking of Africa's needs and development.

    What the summit talks of is more about aid and loans, which the African leaders are very excited about. For leaders like Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe and Sudan's Omar al Bashir, it is especially important because China provides them, unlike the west, without any strings attached. Other African leaders found the summit a great opportunity to expand trade and promote co-operation in the business circle. They felt that civil collaboration is necessary for the Africa-China co-operation to flourish. Most of the leaders also articulated the need for China's investment in agriculture, which is wanting in modernization, infrastructure, energy and technology sectors, in order to build up an effective partnership. However, what was missing were concrete plans and strategies from the Africans for China to help them out in maximizing the benefits. Consequently, this will only lead to squandering of resources in return for some incentives. Eventually, Africa will lose out in terms of not being able to utilise its own resources for developing its indigenous industries. There are already apprehensions regarding the competition Africa is facing from cheap Chinese labour and goods. It is therefore essential that Africans defend their own interests, which requires the right kind of strategies and plans as well as the building up of human resources. More importantly, they also need to draw lessons from Chinese successes as a fast developing economy.

    Thus, this Summit, while focusing on future China-Africa co-operation, speaks more of Chinese plans and strategies to engage Africa rather than any specific African plans, except for a few needs that have been articulated by African leaders. While China has, through various initiatives and offers, generated hope about the future prospects of the people of Africa, African leaders are yet to come out with clear-cut proposals on how to reap the maximum benefit out of these Chinese initiatives. Moreover, with regard to the aid and loans that China has promised to provide to Africa, its supposed beneficiaries - the common people - have little or no say about how these will be utilised. One can only hope that these funds would not wind their way into the private banks of corrupt regimes that China is propping up through its no strings attached policy.

    If China's offers have to be gainfully realized, Africa needs to make its own homework first by formulating strategies that suit its needs and interests instead of simply accepting plans provided by others. Otherwise, Africans will be left only with attending summits hosted by China, while the latter, with its sheer art of diplomacy and negotiating strategies, acquires more and more resources and markets.

    Africa, Economic Relations, China-Africa relations, China East Asia IDSA COMMENT
    China's Power Projection in Africa Abanti Bhattacharya November 07, 2006

    The two-day China-Africa Summit on November 4 and 5, 2006 in Beijing, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of China-Africa diplomatic ties, created a new milestone in China's relationship with the African continent. Hailed as a new type of strategic partnership, this gathering of forty-eight African countries - the biggest ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China - was concluded by a declaration and an action plan for 2007-2009.

    The two-day China-Africa Summit on November 4 and 5, 2006 in Beijing, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of China-Africa diplomatic ties, created a new milestone in China's relationship with the African continent. Hailed as a new type of strategic partnership, this gathering of forty-eight African countries - the biggest ever since the founding of the People's Republic of China - was concluded by a declaration and an action plan for 2007-2009. The main thrust of the Summit, as stated by the Chinese President Hu Jintao, was political equality and mutual trust, economic win-win co-operation and cultural exchange. In many ways the Summit has explicit implications for China's rise as an alternative power centre in the world.

    China has incrementally cemented its traditional ties with the African countries. An article in Beijing Review mentions that in the fifty years of China-African diplomatic relations, the two sides have seen more than 800 high-level visits, including 160 visits from China to Africa and 676 visits from 51 African countries to China. Before the 1990s, China's support to the African countries was mainly in the form of free assistance in building railways, textile mills, hydropower plants, stadiums, schools and hospitals. With regard to trade, statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce show that the two-way trade volume has rocketed from US $4 billion in 1995 to $39.74 billion in 2005. China exported goods worth $18.68 billion and imported goods worth $21.06 billion in 2005, with the trade surplus on the African side reaching $2.38 billion. By 2005, China's foreign direct investment in Africa totalled $1.18 billion with more than 800 Chinese enterprises operating in Africa. From January 2005, China had reduced tariffs on 190 African products to zero.

    At the beginning of this year, Beijing unveiled an African Policy Paper on January 12, 2006 titled 'China's African Policy,' which states that "China will do its best to provide and gradually increase assistance to African nations with no political strings attached." This was followed by several high-level visits from China to African countries, first by President Hu Jintao to Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya between April 24 and 29, 2006, and then followed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Egypt, Ghana, the Republic of Congo, Angola, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda between June 17 and 24, 2006. Earlier in 2000, China-Africa relations were institutionalised with the founding of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to enhance bilateral exchanges and co-operation. The present FOCAC meeting was the third in succession and was raised to the Summit level indicating a deepening of Africa-China relations. On the economic front, Xinhua reports that China-Africa bilateral trade is expected to reach $50 billion in the current year and is projected to top $100 billion by 2010. At the opening ceremony of the summit on November 4, Hu Jintao pledged that China will double its aid to Africa by 2009 and cancel more debts owed by poor African countries. Hu also vowed that China would further open up its market to Africa by raising the number of tariff-free products from the current 190 to 440. All these indicate China's determined steps to deepen its relations with Africa and emerge as a major power to which the world could look up to.

    China realises the important role of Africa in emerging global realignments in politics and trade. It also understands the critical needs of the African countries like increased trade, investments, debt-relief and development assistance programme. At the same time, China's common history of struggle against imperialism and colonialism has injected a kind of sensitivity in its policies towards the African countries. Both China and Africa give similar priority to notions of sovereignty and non-interference. Both realise the need for economic development based on mutual benefit. Africa has rich oil and mineral resources and a huge market, but suffers from economic backwardness and lacks funds and technology for development. China, on the other hand, has achieved remarkable economic growth and as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council wields a veto power. But with its rapid rise there is an ever-growing demand for steady supplies of oil and mineral resources. In this context, China has been able to converge its own needs with Africa's interests. Chinese State Counsellor, Tang Jiaxuan, observed that "economically, China and Africa should be partners of cooperation and should draw on each other's strength to work for mutual benefit." China has thus wisely formulated its foreign policy towards Africa on the principles of non-interference and mutual benefit, which is attractive and beneficial to the African countries.

    China's African policy is based primarily on the motto of co-operation without intervention. This non-interventionist principle engenders a three-point approach: treating the African countries as equals, adhering to non-interference in their internal affairs, and respecting the African nations' road of development. Unlike the US, which links development with democracy, China does not dictate terms for political or economic reforms and only expects affirmation of the 'one China' policy. This non-interventionist and non-ideological foreign policy has made China an attractive country for African countries to engage with. In fact, African leaders find the 'Chinese model' more appropriate than the Western model of development, given similar concerns for poverty alleviation, rural development and economic growth. Further, unlike the West, China provides alternative technologies and fair trade and investment to Africa. On the issue of Sino-African energy co-operation, unlike their Western counterparts, Chinese companies have even ventured into risk-ridden regions of Africa to tap oil resources. Moreover, unlike Western companies, Chinese enterprises not only tap energy resources but also invest in building local infrastructure and launch projects in agriculture, power generation and telecommunications.

    China's Africa policy is a part of its proactive foreign policy, which is aimed at not only protecting its security interests but also at shaping its security environment in a manner that is conducive to its national interests and growth. This strategy seeks to build up an alternative international order, which would distinctly pose a formidable challenge to US unilateralism and global hegemony. It also provides a new vision to developing countries, which wish to move away from the US-dominated world order to an alternative international order. China has entered in a big way in areas that have long been the domain of the United States. The recent high level visits by Chinese leaders to African countries testify China's expanding influence in the US's backyard. It is making inroads in a peaceful manner based on the strategy of a non-interventionist and non-ideological foreign policy. Some scholars are also talking about a 'great game' being enacted in Africa between China and the US for access to natural resources. China has already emerged as Africa's third largest trading partner, next only to the United States and France. The first Africa-China-US dialogue held in South Africa in August 2005 is a reminder of the possible security implications of growing Chinese and US influence in Africa. Though the dialogue does not foresee a direct conflict of interests between China and the United States, China's rising commercial interests in Africa heighten the prospects of conflict in future. Statistics show that China imported 28 per cent of its oil from Africa in 2005, compared to the US import of only 15 per cent in the same year.

    Apart from competition for oil and resources, China is also blamed for pursuing neo-colonialism in the continent. For instance, cheap Chinese textile goods have flooded African markets creating fierce and unfair competition for African textiles. However, China has brushed aside such allegations and called it just another form of 'China threat' theory propounded by the West. China claims that its co-operation with Africa is based on a win-win formula. Africa too feels that China is a lesser evil than the West or the United States, since the latter tend to ostracize many of the autocratic governments on the continent by citing human rights violations, corruption and bad governance. Further, African countries feel that China is helping them in a big way with capital and technology. For instance, Chinese investments have helped Sudan to change its status from an oil importing to an oil exporting country. Further, a glance at the Action Plan (2007-2009) suggests that its focus is not only on energy resources but that a large part is dedicated to joint co-operation in education, environmental protection, promoting tourism, and fighting HIV/AIDS.

    China's African policy, couched in altruistic notions, has thus become attractive to African countries. China has successfully projected itself as a responsible great power showing the path for development and growth to the lesser developed nations. It is fast emerging as a new power centre that provides an alternative to the US.

    Africa, China-Africa relations, China East Asia IDSA COMMENT
    The SCO's Current Approach Nivedita Das Kundu November 07, 2006

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental international organization founded in Shanghai on June 15, 2001 by six countries: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member states cover an area of over 30 million square km or about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of 1.455 billion, about a quarter of the world's total.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental international organization founded in Shanghai on June 15, 2001 by six countries: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member states cover an area of over 30 million square km or about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of 1.455 billion, about a quarter of the world's total. The SCO's predecessor, the Shanghai Five mechanism, originated and grew from the endeavour by Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to strengthen confidence building and disarmament in their border regions. In 1996-97, their heads of state met in Shanghai and Moscow respectively and signed the Treaty on Deepening Military Trust and the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in the border regions. Since 2001 the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has developed into a potentially powerful regional security organisation. Its twin pillars are Russia and China. Russia is on the resurgence with immense energy potential and China is emerging as a major economic power.

    Through different kinds of multilateral and bilateral co-operation or consultations, as well as conference mechanisms, the SCO is trying to establish its importance and its regional and international status. Its current approach is to strengthen mutual trust and good-neighbourliness among member and observer states. It is trying to promote co-operation among its member and observer states in political, trade and economic, scientific-technical, energy and transportation spheres. The SCO is also working to fight against terrorism, separatism and drugs trafficking and striving to create a reasonable new international political and economic order. As the SCO's ideas are different from those of the US and many other Western nations, the major task that it faces today is countering the west's attempts to cause its disintegration. Its current approach is to emphasize on consolidation, long-term planning and avoiding marginalisation.

    While each member-state enhances its prestige by being an active member of the SCO, Russian and Chinese participation is intertwined with the status of the most significant member states. A cordial relationship between China and Russia is especially important, given that both are major players in the SCO. Beijing and Moscow are both carefully calibrating their bilateral relationship and trying to make an impact on global politics through this organization, which has both regional and global significance. The growing interdependence of the SCO member-states also makes the politico-economic negotiations a much easier and faster affair. There is an approach by the SCO to achieve consensus on setting up an interim body for trade facilitation and energy co-operation, with the observer states participating at an equal level with full members. By adopting this approach, it also hopes to facilitate the institutionalisation of greater regional dialogue. With the maturing of this new geopolitical entity five to ten years down the road, policy makers around the world will begin to think of SCO member states as a partner in a large politico-economic bloc with growing significance in world affairs.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which earlier had no plans for expansion, seems to be changing its course now. India, along with Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan (all observer states) expressed their desire to become full members of the organisation. Though countries like Afghanistan and Georgia, in which NATO's presence is conspicuous, have also expressed their keenness to join the SCO as observers, the fact remains that NATO and SCO do not go together. Therefore, the SCO needs to be more realistic and play a substantive role before thinking of a larger membership. Its decision to expand its membership involves regional integration processes. Its enlargement move, in this regional context, might frustrate the entire Western strategy and if it manages to have a strong hold and name in Central Asia, South Asia and the Gulf, then NATO would be hard-pressed to explain the reasons for its expansion mainly into the territories of the former Soviet Union and Afghanistan. The interests of observer states like India, Iran and Pakistan in obtaining SCO membership is mainly for politico-economic reasons and the need to build an 'Asian policy' i.e. 'Look to the east policy'. Through these policies, these states can become more active actors in the international political scenario.

    The SCO's heavyweight, Russia, which has strong links with observer states like India and Iran, has shown an inclination for making these states full members in the foreseeable future. Other member states of SCO like Uzbekistan, though, have refrained from official comment on the topic of further expansion. But the Uzbek government might be keen to see the SCO becoming more anti-Western by including Iran into it, given that its ties with the US have been strained since a bloody crackdown in the eastern city of Andijon in May 2005. However, other Central Asian states do not appear to be as favourable about providing early membership to observer states, other than to Mongolia, which they feel is a natural ally of this organisation.

    Kazakhstan has cited procedural obstacles for accepting new members. It seems Kazakhstan is not too keen to see greater Iranian influence within the SCO. Kyrgyzstan feels that it is too early to talk about SCO expansion. It argued that the group must first focus on cementing ties among current member states. Tajikistan was more oblique and hinted at possible future support for Indian and Iranian membership. But it also warned that the SCO cannot extend its membership indefinitely. At the same time, it feels that economic incentives will play a major role in letting observer states become full members. The expansion of membership issue is a difficult, but necessary, policy line for the SCO member states, which needs to be taken keeping in mind the short as well as the long-term consequences.

    The full entry of the present observer states would add to the SCO's decisive role and efficiency. For example, there will be a possibility of building an Iran-Russia "gas-and-oil arc" by co-ordinating their activities as energy producing countries. By virtue of SCO membership, observer states like India and Iran can take up various SCO projects, which in turn would mean access to technology, increased investment, trade and infrastructure development apart from energy co-operation. Greater economic co-operation between these states can be coupled with various significant projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (TAP) and other projects channelled through Gwadar can make this part of the world a fulcrum for faster economic development. Powerful regional countries like India and Iran can provide a significant share in promoting the role of the SCO. An expanded SCO will be of great benefit to South, South-West and Central Asia. Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan possess vast energy resources and hydrocarbon fuel. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have immense hydroelectric energy resources, which, if jointly explored and rationally used, could tangibly improve the energy security of all the countries in the region.

    Over a period of time, the SCO has matured as an international organization and expanded its influence. Now the international community is showing greater interest in the SCO. It seems that within the organization there is an eagerness to expand the membership, which is increasingly seen as a counterbalance to western influence in this strategically located region. However, in today's world of integrated security, no region can develop without taking into consideration the role of strategically placed countries of that region. This factor has become a driving force behind all regional organizations today. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization cannot be an exception to this rule. By accepting India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia as observers in 2005, the SCO expanded the scope of its activities and this process has to be taken to its logical end. Its current approach is to transform the region into an energy and economic powerhouse and reconfigure strategic alliances, which would be able to eradicate the unilateral approach of the post-cold war era.

    Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Europe and Eurasia IDSA COMMENT
    The ISI's Supervisory Role in Assam M. Amarjeet Singh November 07, 2006

    Apart from aiding and abetting terrorism in Kashmir, Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), has also been fully engaged in building terror infrastructures in the rest of India, including in the Northeast, which has long been infested with multiple insurgencies. This attempt to fish in the troubled waters of the Northeast poses a formidable challenge to India's integrity and security.

    Apart from aiding and abetting terrorism in Kashmir, Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), has also been fully engaged in building terror infrastructures in the rest of India, including in the Northeast, which has long been infested with multiple insurgencies. This attempt to fish in the troubled waters of the Northeast poses a formidable challenge to India's integrity and security.

    Over the past several years, the Indian security establishment has gathered sufficient evidence to show that the ISI - with an active network in Bangladesh - has been engaged in sponsoring violence and unrest in this part of India, by way of supplying sophisticated weaponry, tactical advice and imparting guerrilla training to several militant groups in the region.

    The sprawling Pakistani High Commission in Bangladesh's capital Dhaka has emerged as the "nerve centre" of ISI activities, especially with regards to networking and co-ordinating with trusted agents and linkmen for the purported objective of building a terror network in India's Eastern sector. In doing so, it had been assisting and also sponsoring terror camps in Bangladesh where Indian militants obtain extensive guerrilla training. During the 7th Indo-Bangladesh Home Secretary-level talks held in Dhaka in August 2006, the Union Home Secretary V. K. Duggal pointed to the existence of 172 camps belonging to Indian militant groups and detailed how the militants were supported by Bangladesh-based fundamentalist outfits like Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HuJI) sponsored by the ISI, with money coming from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia.

    In Assam, the growing separatist movement coupled with its demographic profile, which includes among others a large number of foreign nationals, has created a vulnerable constituency for exploitation by the intelligence agencies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. Besides assisting major militant groups like the United Liberation front of Asom (ULFA), the ISI's nexus with several home grown Islamic fundamentalist outfits like the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) have also come to light in the recent past.

    The ISI's activities in Assam, according to the statement of the then Assam Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, made on the floor of the Assam Legislative Assembly in Dispur on April 6, 2000 includes:

    • Promoting indiscriminate violence in the state by providing active support to the local militant outfits.
    • Creating new militant outfits along ethnic and communal lines by instigating ethnic and religious groups.
    • Supply of explosives and sophisticated arms to various militant groups.
    • Causing sabotage of oil pipelines and other installations, communication lines, railways and roads.
    • Promoting fundamentalism and militancy among local Muslim youth by instigating them in the name of 'jihad'.
    • Promoting communal tension between Hindu and Muslim citizens by way of false and inflammatory propaganda.

    Available evidence suggests that the ULFA-ISI nexus began way back in the early 1990s, since when the agency has been imparting specialised arms training to ULFA cadres. On July 25, 2006, the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, S. Raghupathy, confirmed on the floor of the Lok Sabha that the ULFA has links with the ISI. Earlier on June 15, 2006, the Assam Police had claimed that ULFA cadres acquired training in explosives in Pakistan under foreign experts. Disclosing this, the Assam Inspector General of Police (Special Branch) Khagen Sharma said that over a dozen such trained cadres have sneaked into the State. He asserted: "The ULFA sent six boys to Pakistan in 2002 and 16 more in 2004, and all received training in explosives and bombs. They are trained in the use of RDX, TNT, PETN and other dangerous explosives by some foreign agencies which also supply them these materials." On May 15, 2005, a team of Assam and Meghalaya Police arrested an alleged ISI agent, Mohammed Hasifuddin, from an unspecified place along the Assam-Meghalaya border and confiscated over 400 gelatine sticks from him. He was alleged to have supplied explosives to ULFA for the Independence Day bomb blast at Dhemaji town in Assam on August 15, 2004 which killed altogether 17 persons, including 16 school children. The ISI, according to the Assam Police, had procured several different passports for Paresh Barua, the Commander-in-Chief of ULFA, in different names.

    In association with Bangladesh's Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the ISI has been recruiting unemployed youth from Assam and training them for 'jihad' in Bangladesh. This was recently confirmed by the Inspector General of the Border Security Force, J. P. Sinha, when he told the Indian Express on September 1, 2006 that the ISI and the DGFI "are recruiting youths from Assam and training them for jihad in Bangladesh. After the completion of training they are sent back to Assam for fomenting trouble in the north-eastern region." The earlier arrest of a MULTA militant, Nasiruddin Haq, by the Border Security Force from Gitaldah in Coochbehar district of West Bengal in October 2004, had revealed the fact that the ISI was funding MULTA to purchase arms. He further confessed that at least 300 MULTA cadres had already trained in Bangladesh since 1996 and were working in Assam for the outfit.

    Above all, the ISI is also responsible for pumping huge sums of counterfeit currency to subvert the Indian economy. Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's Balochistan province, has, of late, emerged as a major centre for printing and circulating fake Indian currency notes (FICNs). Highlighting the ISI's role in this racket, a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) note reportedly sent to the finance ministry stated that, "FICNs are pushed into India by ISI through all possible channels using smugglers, underworld gangs, terrorists and general air/rail passengers." The note further said that the fake currency notes were sent to India through 'carrier' air passengers who were paid between Rs. 5,000 and 10,000 for carrying a consignment from Dubai and other Gulf countries. Highlighting this phenomenon, the September 18, 2006 issue of the Times of India noted that, according to unspecified intelligence sources, Barak Valley and Karimganj in Assam and Kailasahar and Dharam Nagar in Tripura have become the new outposts where contraband is dumped.

    An investigation report of the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Department of the Assam Government had revealed that persons suspected to be linked to the ISI have been appointed in the State Social Welfare Department. The report, which was reportedly completed in 2005, was made public by the opposition Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) on September 6, 2006. Meanwhile, the Intelligence Bureau and the Assam Police busted a network of ISI operatives who were allegedly passing on highly classified defence documents to officials of the Pakistan Embassy in New Delhi. This follows the arrest of a retired Indian Air Force sergeant Mohammad Hanif from a hotel in Guwahati along with three others on July 10, 2005. Mohammad Hanif had allegedly procured these documents through his son, Mohammad Javed, who worked as a Lance Naik in the Army's 4 Corps in Tezpur.

    Of late, the ISI has been making all out efforts to employ the services of several Kashmir- and Bangladesh-based Islamist groups in the Northeast. Security experts have warned that the ISI's long-term goal in Assam is to boost the activities of Islamic groups. Harkat-ul-Mujahideen has reportedly recruited and dispatched a number of youths from Assam for training in Pakistan. The Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) has reportedly formed a suicide squad to target Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, reportedly for his stand against illegal infiltration from across the border and for taking measures against the proliferation of fundamentalist outfits. There is a distinct possibility that the JMB would over time begin to co-operate and co-ordinate its actions with local Islamist militant groups in Assam.

    Much more alarmingly, there have been media reports of the ISI attempting to spread HIV/AIDS among Indian security forces personnel deployed along the border areas, in liaison with HIV infected women in these areas. However, such reports have not been confirmed officially as yet.

    As the Pakistani ISI expands and consolidates its influence, the threat it brings to India's national security are real and grave. Its effort to rope in the services of foreign based terror groups in this part of the country will prove to be too costly an affair for India in general and the northeast region in particular.

    Assam, Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HuJI), United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA) Terrorism & Internal Security IDSA COMMENT

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