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Egypt’s Faltering Transition: Domestic and Regional Dynamics and Challenges for India | May 02, 2014 | Rajeev Agarwal | Fellows' Seminar |
Chairperson: Ambassador Arundhati Ghose The paper is an attempt to analytically examine the intricacies of Egypt’s transition, its domestic-regional dynamics and nature of Indo-Egyptian relations. In the introductory remarks, author briefly discussed Egypt’s geographic, demographic, civilizational and geo-political significance and highlighted Egypt’s centrality in West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region’s strategic landscape. Author raised four concise research questions which form the major premise of this study; Factors responsible for faltering transition, Major domestic stake-holders in Egypt’s transition, External factors influencing the Egyptian transition and reverberations of transition on the region, and India’s key interests in Egypt. In the first section, author identified four factors responsible for the flawed transition of Egypt. As per author’s contentions, SCAF in its short political existence of sixteen months failed to address the popular demands of Egyptians and thus its political miscalculation proved to be an obstruction in Egypt’s democratic ambitions. Author further elaborated how multiple elections and constitutional referenda post-2011 created an element of ambiguity and frustration, and led to a directionless transition. The third factor responsible for transition’s failure was Muslim Brotherhood’s confusion, contradiction and hurry in managing the new democratic Egypt. Lastly, with reference to certain important economic variables, author affirmed that deplorable economic conditions and inability to revive the Egyptian economy further impeded the transitional movement. In the next section, author dealt with the major domestic players involved in writing the script of Egypt’s transition. Role played by Egyptian Armed forces, Political parties (Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic and secular political parties) and Youth Movements (April 6 movement, Revolutionary Youth Coalition, Tamarod) was analytically elaborated by the author. Third section of the paper was centered on external dynamics of the transition. Author classified the influences under two major sub-heads; Regional and extra-regional camps. Based on ideological differences and state of diplomatic relations, author established that Saudi-UAE-Kuwait formed the Anti-Muslim brotherhood lobby, and Turkey-Iran-Qatar group was labelled as the Pro Muslim Brotherhood camp. Under Extra-regional stake holders, the case of Russia and U.S. was studied in greater detail. To evaluate Egypt’s impact on the region, author studied the spread of Political Islam emanating from Egyptian territory, reaction of neighbours such as Iran and Turkey, probable trade-effects along Suez Canal and changing US policies. Last section of the paper focused on Indo-Egyptian relations by examining the cultural, civilizational, diplomatic, and economic-trade linkages. Special emphasis was laid on nature of bilateral ties in face of the Arab Spring. In conclusion, author emphatically articulated Egypt’s importance for India and deliberated upon challenges facing New Delhi while dealing with changing regimes in Cairo. Shri Sanjay Singh congratulated the author for producing a well-structured and analytically sound paper. He stated that developments in WANA region deserve a more detailed mention in the introduction section of the paper to place Egypt in the regional context. He further suggested the author to examine the impact of Iran P5+1 talks and Iraq elections on Egypt. He appreciated author’s detailed analysis of Muslim Brotherhood’s role in Egyptian transition and asked the author to further address intra Muslim Brotherhood clefts. Furthermore, Shri Sanjay Singh highlighted the centrality of domestic economic forces in shaping the transition. Lastly, it was stated that even though Egypt is important to India, GCC remains the centre of attention and thus labelling Egypt as the “vital cog” in India’s foreign policy matrix seemed to be an exaggeration. Prof. Gulshan Dietl appreciated the cogent and focused study undertaken by the author. She opined that the three years of turbulence have changed the status quo in Egypt and thus the argument that “Egypt is back to square one” remains contestable. While commenting on Egypt’s contemporary relevance, Prof Dietl mentioned that Cairo as headquarters of Arab league exemplifies Egypt’s centrality to the West Asian region. Additionally, author was urged to examine the role of Egyptian films and TV in evoking and influencing the public sentiment, in order to catch the pulse of Egyptian revolution. Ms. Ruchita Beri acknowledged author’s efforts. She mentioned that though Egypt geographically falls under the African continent, Egyptians generally alienate themselves from their African identity. She suggested that the author accommodate the issue of Egypt’s participation in the African Union within the subject-matter of this paper, and also briefly examine Sino-Egypt trade relations. Dr. P.K. Pradhan complimented the author. A succinct reference to Elie Kedourie’s work on Arab political culture was made to suggest that reminiscence of Mubarak still echoes across Egypt, even after his ouster from Egyptian political theatre. Sharing his insights on military dominance in Egypt, Dr. Pradhan asserted that even though the military leader has been removed, the institutional structures remain intact. He agreed with the author’s contention that military will dominate the domestic politics, and civilian misrule will not be tolerated by military in Egypt. Amb. Arundhati Ghose: The neutral, non-judgmental and objective approach of the paper was highly appreciated by Amb Ghose. The author was advised to include “people or masses” as another major internal player in Egyptian transition. Demographic profiling of protestors while examining the youth movements was strongly recommended. Amb Ghose emphatically stated that jihadis have contributed to the failure of transition, and thus the role of Jihadi elements in shaping the transition deserves a mention, if not detailed scrutiny. The discussion was followed by comments and questions from the floor. The need to examine the future of Egypt was underlined; in order to extrapolate whether Egypt will deteriorate into a failed state or will it bounce back and retain its influence on the region. Questions were raised on US policy towards Egypt post-Mubarak and Israeli view of Arab Spring and Egyptian transition. The issue of Egypt’s excessive dependence on foreign funds was debated and the need to study economic dynamics of Egyptian transition was duly acknowledged. |
Eurasia & West Asia | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indian Ocean Maritime Security Cooperation: Will India Lead? | April 11, 2014 | Lee Cordner | Fellows' Seminar |
Chairperson: R Adm (Retd) K Rajamenon The paper focusses on the prospects of Maritime Security Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and India’s role in it. Maritime security has become a central issue for regional and extra-regional actors. Emerging traditional and non-traditional security challenges largely converge at sea as they impact economic, environmental, energy, human, food and national security. There are compelling drivers for enhancing maritime security cooperation in the IOR and considerable obstacles to be overcome. The author argues that as the major regional power and an emerging Asian great power India’s willingness and capacity to provide strategic leadership is critical. However, in view of the alleged civil-military dissonance and the demonstrable lack of political will for reform raises questions about India’s strategic competence and influences perceptions of India’s prospects as a regional leader. Moreover, India’s strategic policy ambiguity undermines regional trust and confidence. Notwithstanding India’s reluctance, the paper argues that regional actors will increasingly look to India to provide strong, proactive and coherent leadership; to engender a spirit of cooperation and shared destiny. The paper concludes that India’s strategic leadership presents a key regional security risk, and an opportunity. Major Points of Discussion and Suggestions to the Author:
Report prepared by Amit Kumar, Research Assistant, IDSA |
Military Affairs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Coping with a Rising China: An Analysis of the Indian Official Discourse 1996 - 2012 | April 25, 2014 | Peter Van Der Hoest | 1030 to 1300 hrs | Fellows' Seminar |
Chair: Lt Gen Y M Bammi (Retd) |
East Asia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
International Conference on A Nuclear Weapon-Free World: From Conception to Reality | April 02, 2014 to April 03, 2014 | Conference |
DAY I: Wednesday, April 02, 20140900 hrs Registration 1000 – 1045 hrs INAUGURAL SESSION CHAIR: Shri Shivshankar Menon, NSA. Welcome Remarks by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director-General, IDSA. Remarks by Shri Shivshankar Menon, NSA. Inaugural Address by Dr Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India. 1045 – 1100 hrs Tea Break 1100 – 1300 hrs SESSION 1: ROLES AND DOCTRINES RELATED TO NUCLEAR CHAIR: Dr Sverre Lodgaard, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Theme I - Changes in Nuclear Arsenals and Evolution of Nuclear Doctrines Dr Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation Pour la Recherche Stratégique, France. Prof Arvind Kumar, Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, India. Prof Rajesh Rajagopalan, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Theme II - Reconciling the Moral and Security Imperatives Ambassador Sheel Kant Sharma, Former Indian Ambassador to Austria and Governor on the IAEA Board of Governors. Dr Rebecca E Johnson, Acronym Institute, UK. 1215 – 1300 hrs Q&A 1300 – 1400 hrs Lunch 1400 – 1545 hrs SESSION 2: NUCLEAR RISKS AND THREATS CHAIR: Dr WPS Sidhu, Senior Fellow, Brookings India. Theme I - Addressing Today’s Risks of Proliferation Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director for International Security at Chatham House, UK. Dr Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, Institute for Defence and Analyses, New Delhi. Theme II - Tackling the Challenge of Nuclear Terrorism Dr William C. Potter, Director, James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies (CNS), Monterrey, USA. Prof Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), UK. Brigadier (Retd) Feroz H. Khan, Lecturer, Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, USA. 1500 – 1545 hrs Q&A 1545 – 1600 hrs Tea Break 1600 – 1800 hrs SESSION 3: CHALLENGES OF A NUCLEAR WEAPON-FREE CHAIR: Dr Theresa Hitchens, Director, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, Geneva, Switzerland. Theme I - Deterrence and Stability On The Road To Nuclear Zero Dr Manpreet Sethi, Senior Fellow, Center for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan, Ambassador-At-Large for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore. Theme II - Verification Challenges Dr James Acton, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA. Dr Arun Vishwanathan, Assistant Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Dr K L Ramakumar, Director, RC&IG, Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India, Mumbai. 1715 – 1800 hrs Q&A 1900 hrs CULTURAL PROGRAMME FOLLOWED BY DINNER AT IDSA DAY II: Thursday, April 03, 20140930 – 1230 hrs SESSION 4: PATHWAYS TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON-FREE WORLD CHAIR: Ambassador Rakesh Sood, Prime Minister’s Special Envoy on Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Theme I - Moving from Bilateral US-Russia Deep Cuts to Multilateralism Dr Fan Jishe, Research Fellow of Institute of American Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. Dr Anton V. Khlopkov, Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies, Moscow. Theme II - Existing Treaty-based Regimes and Limitations Prof Ramesh Thakur, Director, Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation & Disarmament, ANU, Australia. Dr Mu Changlin, Senior Research Fellow, China Institute for International Studies, China. Theme III - New Stakeholders and New Approaches Mr Akira Kawasaki, Co-Chair of International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). Dr C Raja Mohan, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Mr Alyn Ware, Global Coordinator of Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (PNND). 1130 – 1230 hrs Q&A 1230 – 1400 hrs Lunch 1400 – 1545 hrs SESSION 5: CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS CHAIR: Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA Reports by Session Chairpersons Chair I: Dr Sverre Lodgaard 1445 – 1545 hrs Exchange of Views on Reports and Follow-up. > 1545 – 1600 hrs Tea break |
Nuclear and Arms Control | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Visit of Young Parliamentarians from African Countries to IDSA | March 13, 2014 | Other |
Facilitated by the Ministry of External Affairs, a nine member delegation of young parliamentarians from Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, South Sudan and Uganda visited the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses on March 13, 2014 for an interaction with Scholars. During the deliberations, following issues were discussed: Military and Defence related issuesThe young parliamentarians were very keen to discuss issues related to defence and military. They were interested in knowing the possibility and nature of co-operation between defence establishments of India and Africa. They were interested in the recruitment practices of Indian Army, the possibility of military co-operation with African countries and co-operation in terms of defence equipment and capacity building. Specifically, they wanted to know that how the Indian Military can help in building African militaries capacity to operate military equipment and about the system of monitoring atrocities committed by Armed personnel; the young parliamentarians wanted to know about possibility of co-operation with Indian defence establishments in terms of restructuring of Armed forces especially in countries going through post-conflict transition. The parliamentarians wanted to know whether women are recruited in the Armed Forces in India. Deputy-Director General, Brig. Dahiya said that in Indian military, women are present in non-combat roles, although the Central Police Reserve Force has women contingent. Women contingents are also sent as part of United Nations Peace Keeping Force. The DDG pointed out that India and Africa have long standing military co-operation. Indian military has been involved in military training in Lesotho and Botswana. India has established a Military Staff College in Tanzania. Cadets from Ghana, Kenya and Uganda have been coming for training in the Indian Military Academy. There is strong possibility of establishing military training with other countries like South Sudan. India-Africa RelationsRegarding India-Africa relations Ms. Ruchita Beri, Research Fellow and Centre co-ordinator of ALACUN cluster at IDSA, acknowledged that there were historic ties between India and Africa since Independence. India does not view Africa as a hopeless continent and has co-operated with Africa at both bilateral and African Union level. An important facet about Indian co-operation is that it does not come with any conditionality attached to it. Moreover, India attunes its co-operation to suit African requirements. Indian government has provided financial support to African Union Peacekeeping Mission in Somali and African led International Support Mission in Mali. India has supported African counties in defence training and capacity building. Globally there is a rethinking on the definition of “Security”. At present it encompasses both traditional and non-traditional security concerns. In this context, India may enhance its cooperation with African countries in counter–terrorism, energy security and space technology. Dr. G. Balachandran, Senior Research Fellow at IDSA, said that there were excellent historical as well as people to people relations between Africa but they have not fully capitalized it. The knowledge dissemination about Africa in India is done by third parties rather that African themselves. IDSA ResearchThe parliamentarians were interested in knowing IDSA’s research on issues related to terrorism, militia violence and illegal immigration. The Director General of IDSA, Dr. Arvind Gupta while briefing the delegation on the overall role and functioning of IDSA, touched upon these issues. In relation to terrorism, the Director General said that IDSA has an Internal Security Centre and interacts with various stakeholders to understand the issue of terrorism which includes a project with Ministry of Home Affairs. India has struggled with problem related to militias some of which have operated in India with outside support. India also faces problem of illegal migration which occurs due to economic reasons as well as other reasons like natural calamities and trafficking. IDSA with its engagement with law enforcement agencies attempts to understand the root causes of the problem of illegal migration. Report prepared by Nachiket Khadkiwala, Research Assistant, IDSA. |
Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Present Situation in Egypt, and Precipitation of events in the Middle East and its spillover effects on South Asia | February 28, 2014 | 1600 hrs | Other |
Speaker: Amb. Gillane Allam, Ambassador Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs |
Eurasia & West Asia | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Delhi Dialogue VI: Realizing the ASEAN-India Vision for Partnership and Prosperity | March 06, 2014 to March 07, 2014 | Conference |
Concept NoteIndia and ASEAN today are in the vortex of change as new strategic and economic trends shape the Asia-Pacific or the Indo-Pacific region. As a period of power transition marked by the rise of China and the economic dynamism of the Asia-Pacific region, it generated its own set of uncertainties and anxieties among countries of the region. This was evident in China’s assertion of territorial claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea impacting Vietnam, Philippines and Japan respectively. China also asserted territorial claims in Ladakh on the unresolved India-China border. Another concurrent development has been the democratic transition in Myanmar which was heralded by the installation of a ‘civilian government’ in March 2011 and improved relations with the US (following President Obama’s visit in November 2011). It was under such circumstances that the United States under the Obama administration announced its ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalancing’ strategic shift to Asia-Pacific. There are many potential conflict zones in Asia Pacific as nations have competing claims of sovereignty especially in the South China Sea besides internal fissures in many countries which threaten the peace. To keep abreast of the many challenges confronting the region, and to retain its centrality, ASEAN has set for itself the target of achieving an ASEAN Community (Political, Economic, and Socio-Cultural) by 2015. In the face of fundamental changes that are being effected in the political, economic and strategic domains, the challenge before ASEAN today is to shape the future or be shaped by it. As the pace of change in the region gathered momentum, India’s Look-East policy that was initiated in 1991 has led to the maturing of relations with our eastern neighborhood. This yielded good results in political and economic terms. India’s dramatic economic liberalization in 1991 established the framework for enhanced India-ASEAN trade which has grown exponentially: it is now almost $80 billion. About 12 per cent of India’s exports and 9 per cent of India’s imports was on account of trade with ASEAN during 2011-12. The Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) between India and ASEAN (October 2003) followed by the Trade in Goods Agreement (TIG) (signed in August 2009) between the two have created an enabling environment for the smooth development of multilateral as well as bilateral economic cooperation. With the TIG coming into force (2010), and the subsequent passing of the free trade agreement (FTA) on services and investments (December 2012) the India-ASEAN relationship is slated to grow faster than with rest of the world, due to factors such as a favourable demographic profile and growing market for goods and services. Thus, the Look East Policy, which has in its ambit a wide geographical expanse with a track record of over two decades, has proved to be mutually beneficial. The Look East Policy itself is undergoing a transition. The over two decades’ experience of implementing the Look East policy has imparted valuable lessons along the way. There is a felt need for greater involvement of India’s Northeast in India’s Look East Policy. As the Indian Ocean issues gain prominence, greater dialogue on Indian Ocean is called for, in addition to greater focus on India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands. India’s common cultural ties with CLMV could profitably be grounded in contemporary concerns including the river systems, mountain ranges, agrarian patterns etc. Given the context, disseminating information about India-ASEAN relationship becomes critical, and Delhi Dialogue has been actively working on that front for the past five years. Delhi Dialogue is a confluence of policy makers, corporate leaders and academia, which provides an opportunity to deliberate upon India’s Look East Policy in general and India’s relations with ASEAN and its member countries in particular. Established as a second-track dialogue, the conference was inaugurated in January 2009 by the current President of India Shri Pranab Mukherjee, who was then the Minister for External Affairs. Delhi Dialogue has been supported by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, and FICCI amongst other institutions from India and the Southeast Asian region. So far, five annual conferences have been held, involving leaders from India and the ASEAN region, diplomatic community, think tanks and members from academia at large. The Sixth Delhi Dialogue is scheduled to be held in March 2014 and is being proudly organized by India’s premier think tank, IDSA. Five editions of Delhi Dialogue have taken place so far. The themes covered in the past have included energy security; economic cooperation (including FTA); connectivity; India-ASEAN Roadmap in the new millennium; Nalanda University; non traditional security issues; evolving security architecture (ADMM Plus and EAS Process); networks of knowledge and science; CLMV countries and Northeast India. The ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit 2012 in New Delhi led to the adoption of the Vision Statement. This document charts out the future direction of ASEAN-India relations and significantly, elevates the ASEAN-India relationship to a strategic partnership. With this forming an important backdrop, the Delhi Dialogue VI provides a suitable opportunity to carry forward the ideas set forth in the Vision Statement besides the report of the ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Group. Programme
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South East Asia and Oceania | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How has the Army Adapted to Change in Counterinsurgency Operations | February 27, 2014 | 1430-1700 hrs | Round Table |
The army has been involved in counterinsurgency (CI) operations for almost six decades both within the country and in Sri Lanka. The causes of these uprisings are well known, as is the evolution of CI movements. However, as a key constituent of the government’s CI strategy, a study of the army’s ability to adapt to change deserves greater focus. Change has been evident, however slow, in the pattern of India’s socioeconomic evolution. The country has also witnessed political empowerment, giving both voice and visibility to demands, thereby influencing the manner in which the country is governed. There is greater transparency in every facet of public life. The media on its part has further ensured greater accountability from government functionaries. The nature of threats, both internal and external have evolved, though with the Pakistan factor remaining a challenge and a key determinant for resolving existing issues in Jammu and Kashmir. While each of these factors can be assessed in isolation, yet their impact on the conduct of CI operations by the army has been perceptible. These changes have taken place in the backdrop of over six decades of the army’s involvement in CI operations. Needless to say, some of the fac-tors enumerated, have influenced the manner in which the army deals with the challenge of CI op-erations. It has led to adaptation to change, either as a result of extraneous influences and at times because of internal evolutionary mechanisms. Change takes place at a number of levels and depending upon its nature and pace, it can be both revolutionary and evolutionary. However, a test case of successful change is the ability to transform the manner in which assigned objectives are achieved. In a more conventional sense, it could be achieved by adapting designated goals, strategy or organisational structure. However, giv-en the nature of operations in a CI environment, operational level adaptation can also be instrumen-tal in bringing about major change. With this as the backdrop, a roundtable discussion is being organised at IDSA on Feb 27, 2014, from 1430 to 1700 hours on how has the army adapted to change in CI operations. The proposed format of the discussion entails a brief introduction to the subject, which will be followed by a short presentation by nominated lead speakers amongst the invitees, on specific issues per-taining to the subject. After each presentation, the floor will be opened to the audience to invite comments and questions. The format has been adopted to ensure focused and deliberate discus-sion on specific areas. A brief summary of subjects that will be taken up for discussion and lead speakers for each are as follows:
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Military Affairs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
International Seminar on Kautilya | April 09, 2014 | Conference |
Programme0900- 0930 Registration and tea 0930- 1000 Inaugural SessionWelcome Remarks by Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General (DG) IDSA 1000-1130 Session I- Revisiting Issues from TextChair: K. Srinivasan
1130-1145 Tea 1145-1315 Session II Issues of Culture, Leadership and StrategyChair: A.N.D. Haksar
1315-1415 Lunch 1415-1545 Session III- Issues of Negotiations and InterpretationChair: Kalyan Raman
1545-1640 Session IV – Future Studies and Next StepsChair: Dr Arvind Gupta, DG, IDSA 1640- 1645 Vote of Thanks by P.K. Gautam, Research Fellow, IDSA, Convener 1645 -1700 Tea Click here to know more about IDSA's programme on Ancient Indigenous Historical Knowledge |
Military Affairs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ASEAN and Conflict management in the South China Sea (SCS) | February 07, 2014 | Munmun Majumdar | 1030 to 1300 hrs | Fellows' Seminar |
Chair: Professor Baladas Ghoshal |
East Asia |