Events

Mr. Shantanu Sinha, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), made a presentation on, “The Revision of Criminal Laws: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 29 July 2024. The session was moderated by Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

India has undergone a substantial legal transformation with the enactment of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS), and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam (BSA), replacing the IPC, CrPC, and Indian Evidence Act, respectively. These changes aim to modernise and streamline India's criminal justice system. The discussion centred around the potential impact of these laws on various aspects of criminal procedure, investigation, and evidence.

Detailed Report

Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, commenced the meeting by providing an overview of the criminal justice administration system and the replacement of the  colonial era laws formulated in the 19th and the 20th centuries by the introduction of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023, which replaced the Indian Penal Code, 1860, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023,which replaced The Criminal Procedure Code, 1882, 1898 and 1973, and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, which replaced the  the Indian Evidence Act, 1872, further discussing whether the current system from the infrastructure point of view and the mindset point of view  is adequately equipped according to the new laws for criminal justice administration or not. Mr. Khare also mentioned briefly the changes made to the registration of FIRs with the introduction of e-FIRs and Zero-FIRs.

Mr. Shantanu Sinha, in his opening remarks, provided an overview of the new laws that were introduced in India making a major shift from the colonial era. These codes aim to address the shortcomings of the previous laws and adapt to the evolving challenges of the 21st century. The meeting commenced with a discussion on the date of implementation of the new laws i.e. 01.07.2024 to oversee their application and address potential challenges. The Committee for Reforms in Criminal Laws (CRCL), established in 2020 and chaired by Prof (Dr.) Ranbir Singh, reviewed criminal laws in India and their recommendations formed the basis for three new bills introduced in the Indian Parliament in August 2023. The Parliamentary Standing Committee chaired by Mr. Brij Lal reviewed the new bills and suggested revisions and recommendations. However, some committee members criticised the committee for only holding 12 sittings to deliberate on the laws and demanded more time for scrutiny.

Before moving to specifics, Mr. Sinha emphasised the focus on ensuring justice to the victim, which is the key feature of the changes made. This is apparent, firstly, in the names themselves—the words “nyaya” (justice) and “nagarik suraksha” (safety and security of the citizen) make this clear and send an unambiguous message. At the same time, the rights of the accused to a fair trial are upheld firmly. The need to punish the actual perpetrators of the crime, by ensuring an honest, fair, scientific investigation; and speedy and efficient justice—so that justice is delivered in a timely manner with adequate deterrent effect for both the offender and others who may take to crime— are both met in these laws. There are also several women-centric changes in these laws; and others that protect the rights of children. For example, the definition of ‘victim’ has been widened by eliminating the need for the accused person to be formally charged of having committed the offence. Though this is not a gender-specific change, it will help all victims (including where they are entitled to compensation) including those who are women. In the IPC, sections relating to offences against woman and child were scattered throughout the text. In the BNS, they have been consolidated in Chapter 5 (Of offences against woman and child). This chapter has also been given precedence as far as the sequence in which chapters are arranged in the Act is concerned (this gives a message, but has no other legal implication, of course). These are only illustrative. The point is that several changes have been made to ensure justice to women, and also to children regardless of their gender, recognising the fact that both boys and girls are vulnerable.

According to Mr. Sinha, the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023 (BNS) retains most offences from the IPC.  It adds community service as a form of punishment. Sedition is no longer an offence.  Instead, there is a new offence for acts endangering the sovereignty, unity and integrity of India. The BNS includes the offence of terrorism in one its sections, whose definition is the same as that provided in the UAPA. Naturally, therefore, a question would arise which law to apply when investigating such an offence. This discretion has been left to the concerned Superintendent of Police. Over time, this aspect will have to be elaborated upon and perhaps guidelines framed to ensure that there is no scope of it being challenged on the grounds of arbitrary exercise of discretion.

Mr. Sinha explained that organised crime has been added as an offence in the BNS. The definition is in line with that provided in the Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act (MCOCA), which was the model used by other states as well while drafting their own laws to deal with this menace.  It includes crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and cyber-crime committed on behalf of a crime syndicate.  Petty organised crime is also an offence now. By adding this section to the BNS, there is now a law applicable across the country to deal with organised and petty organised crime—which don’t honour state boundaries and are inter-state as well as transnational— which will go a long way in tackling such criminal activity in an effective manner.

Mr. Sinha mentioned murder by a group of five or more persons on grounds of certain identity markers such as caste, language or personal belief will be an offence with penalty of seven years to life imprisonment or death. By providing a separate section for this offence, a strong message has been sent that such offences will be met with strict punitive measures.

Mr. Sinha further elucidated that the new legal framework also introduces more precise definitions for certain crimes. For instance, the distinction between snatching and robbery has been clarified, addressing a long-standing issue where cases of snatching were often lodged under the more serious charge of robbery. This refinement in categorising crimes is expected to lead to more accurate data collection and potentially, more effective targeted interventions. Additionally, the laws incorporate provisions for emerging crimes like cyberbullying and online fraud, reflecting the evolving nature of criminal activities in the digital age.

Mr. Sinha stated that the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023 (BNSS) which was introduced in the Lok Sabha and referred to the standing committee on August 11, 2023 replaces the Criminal Procedure Code, 1973 (CrPC).  The CrPC provides for the procedure for arrest, prosecution, and bail. BNSS mandates forensic investigation for offences punishable with seven years of imprisonment or more.  Forensic experts will visit crime scenes to collect forensic evidence and record the process. By making this process mandatory, and providing for expert collection of evidence, the process of investigation may well be revolutionised. The quality of evidence, and its relevance and value in court, will be significantly enhanced; by ensuring that evidence is of high quality, on the one hand, it will ensure that actual perpetrators of crime will not be able to get away because of deficiencies in collection of vital evidence. On the other hand, by assuring the element of fairness in investigation, it also helps the accused to establish their innocence, if, indeed, they are innocent, which is, of course, as a general rule, the presumption unless contradicted by due process of law.

He further emphasised that all trials, inquiries, and proceedings may be held in electronic mode.  Production of electronic communication devices, likely to contain digital evidence, will be allowed for investigation, inquiry, or trial. If a proclaimed offender has absconded to evade trial and there is no immediate prospect of arresting him, the trial can be conducted and judgment pronounced in his absence. Along with specimen signatures or handwriting, finger impressions and voice samples may be collected for investigation or proceedings.  Samples may be taken from a person who has not been arrested. All these measures and more make the process of investigation and trial that much more efficient. There are some concerns, as well. There are questions of data security, and other such concerns relating to electronic devices and communication. Further, the demeanour of a witness in judicial proceedings is an important aspect of his/her testimony. At times, especially during cross-examination, it is important to assure the Court that the witness is deposing without any fear, and not under any compulsion. Physical presence of witnesses in Court aids this process. When deposing using electronic means, this may not always be the case. Also, for example when recording searches and seizures through audio-visual means, the mere fact that electronic recording has been done should not lend the evidence any more of an imprint of credibility that that desired by law. Investigating officers have to be trained, retrained, and then again trained, to follow the best guidelines, and ensure justice to the victim as well as the accused.

Mr. Sinha said that the BNSS allows up to 15 days of police custody, which can be authorised in parts during the initial 40 or 60 days of the 60 or 90 days, respectively, in which investigations are carried out (depending on the punishment attracted by the offence; basically, the gravity of the offence).  Concerns have been raised that this may lead to denial of bail for the entire period of 40 or 60 days (as the case may be) as magistrates may be reluctant to grant bail on the ground that the accused may be required to be remanded to police custody to help in the investigation, provided the police has not exhausted the 15 days custody. However, it has been clarified that merely on this ground bail will not be denied.

Mr. Sinha critically assessed the new system's preparedness to effectively serve India's needs, exploring the ramifications of e-registration of FIRs, the concept of zero FIRs.  The introduction of e-FIRs and zero FIRs is a step towards improving accessibility to justice. The law encourages the use of electronic means for filing and processing FIRs, which within three days of the filing needs to be signed by the informant, which can expedite the process and reduce paperwork.

However, the effectiveness of these measures hinges on robust implementation and adequate infrastructure.

With reference to the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023 (BSB2) Mr. Sinha explained that this replaces the Indian Evidence Act, 1872 (IEA).  It retains most provisions of the IEA including those on confessions, relevancy of facts, and burden of proof. The IEA provides for two kinds of evidence - documentary and oral.  Documentary evidence includes primary (original documents) and secondary (that proves the contents of the original).  The BSA retains the distinction.  It classifies electronic records as documents. Under the IEA, electronic records are categorised as secondary evidence.  The BSA classifies electronic records as primary evidence.  It expands such records to include information stored in semiconductor memory or any communication devices (smartphones, laptops). The BSA expands secondary evidence to include: (i) oral and written admissions, and (ii) the testimony of a person who has examined the document and is skilled in the examination of documents.

While interacting with MP-IDSA-Scholars regarding instances where citizens have faced difficulties in registering FIRs, particularly in snatching cases, Mr.Sinha emphasised the importance of persistence in such situations. He stated that if a police officer refuses to register an FIR where it relates to a cognisable offence, citizens should utilise remedies that the law provides. The first step would be to write to the Superintendent of Police, and, if there is still no action, then they should make a complaint before the jurisdictional judicial magistrate.  With changes in BNSS, such problems have found an effective redressal as citizens can file e-FIRs (to be signed within 3 days), and can file zero FIRs too (i.e. information regarding a cognisable offence can be given in any police station irrespective of  whether the offence took place in its jurisdiction.) Mr.Sinha emphasised that under no circumstances should citizens give up on their right to lodge a complaint.

Mr. Sinha mentioned that significant amendments to provisions governing complaints against public servants and the role of forensic experts have been made. The controversial expansion of police custody from the previous 15-day limit to 60 and even 90 days, while aimed at complex investigations, it is essential to establish stringent safeguards to prevent misuse. Regular judicial oversight and strict adherence to legal provisions are imperative. The newly mandated 90-day update on investigation status for victims or informants was analysed in depth for its potential to enhance transparency and accountability.

Specific provisions such as those related to complaint registration, preliminary inquiries, and the alignment of terrorism-related definitions with the UAPA were scrutinised. Provisions safeguarding the rights of children and women were meticulously examined to assess their congruence with principles of justice and gender equality.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA complimented Mr. Shantanu Sinha and appreciated the detailed presentation and further highlighted the absence of provisions related to road rage and the criminalisation of mere bystanding during a crime as significant lacunae in the newly enacted criminal laws. He emphasised the need for specific laws addressing the growing menace of road rage, which has claimed numerous lives. Additionally, he advocated for a remedy for the individuals who witness a crime but choose to remain passive, underscoring the importance of active citizenship and community responsibility in preventing criminal activities.

Participants expressed profound concerns regarding the challenges inherent in implementing these sweeping legal reforms and anticipated legal challenges that may arise.

Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA inquired about the burden of proof, whether it lies upon the prosecution or the defence, a fundamental aspect of the criminal jurisprudence. He further asked the scope of malicious investigations and their impact on society quoting the Nambi Narayan case.

Col. Vivek Chadha(Retd), Senior Fellow made a query regarding the process followed for the formation of these laws and the role played by the citizens in formulating them.

Col. (Dr.)  Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow asked Mr.Sinha whether the notion of the hefty process of filing an FIR with the police has been simplified with the introduction of the new criminal laws.

Report has been prepared by Ms. Navdeep Kaur, Intern, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis made a presentation on “Japan’s Currency Crisis and its Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 15 July 2024. The session was moderated by Dr. R. K. Dhawan, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA. Scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

Japan made a significant transition from exerting hard power to prioritising soft power.  The Japanese model was a mix of free market and socialist system. Later on, several Southeast Asian countries also adopted a similar approach to achieve their development goals. Countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also adopted this economic model, and China and Vietnam have followed the same. This Japanese economic model was referred to as the ‘flying geese’ model. In the early 1990s, the collapse of massive assets led to a crisis in the Japanese currency. Several factors contributed to the devaluation of the Yen, including the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as the huge selling of the yen, resulting in a decline in its value.

Detailed Report

The session started with remarks by Dr. R.K. Dhawan on how the value of the Yen degraded over a period of time. He talked about the Plaza Accord according to which Japan was pressurised to appreciate the Yen and that led to the downfall of the Japanese economy and what we call lost decades. Japan has not been yet able to recover from it.

Dr. Dasgupta commenced his presentation with an introduction to the rise of the Japanese economy after World War II. Japan from the beginning was the preminent economic power in the 1950s and 1960s. The rise was remarkable because it was risen from the ashes of the 1940s and after suffering two nuclear bombs which no country has faced. In his presentation, Dr. Dasgupta explained it all in brief.

In his presentation, he talked about the Japanese economy of the post 1940s and 50s era. After the decade when Japan surrendered, the country put into place a revolutionary system of ‘guided capitalism’, that would give a growth rate averaging around 8 to 10 per cent until the 1970s and 7 per cent until the 1990s which led to international economists coining the “Flying Geese” model for Asia and all over the world.

He emphasised the role of the US in reviving the Japanese economy during the Japanese economy’s lost decades. The accommodative policies of the US not only opened the market for its domestic manufacturers but also pegged the Yen to a fixed value against the dollar. However, the system that guided Japan to success also contained the roots essentially of its downfall because Japan’s antitrust laws encouraged the formation of giants called keiretsu.

He also highlighted the significance of the keiretsu and the impact of the real estate bubble. This economic bubble collapsed between 1991 and 1995, leading to a period of deflation in Japan. Consequently, there was a reduction in the prices of goods and services, accompanied by diminished cash flow and corporate profits. This downturn resulted in decreased production and a decline in employment opportunities, leading to a significant rise in unemployment. Subsequently, consumers began to economise on goods and services, contributing to an overabundance of supply in the market.

Further, he explained the effects of deflation in Japan. The main leading banks of Japan were on the verge of collapse. Many companies were red-listed. The wages of the employees were kept stagnant. People started saving which led to depressed consumption.

He talked about the Rise of Abenomics where he explained changes in the monetary and fiscal policy and some structural changes that were made. He explained the changes in the monetary policy which led to the crisis in the Japanese economy. The first target of Abenomics was setting an inflation target of 2 par cent so that the prices of goods would rise which would stimulate more production. The second was setting Yen volatility control so that the Yen became stable. Then was the negative interest rates under which banks had to pay the entity that was holding their funds. Next was the public investment by which the government would intend to invest capital directly into the economy. Finally, the quantitative easing (QE) by which the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would buy government and non-government bonds in the open market, and in effect, it could use credit liquidity to buy back its own debt. Besides all these, there was a fiscal policy that used consumption tax hikes to fund spending. They brought in structural reforms to strengthen antitrust laws, boost women’s participation, and increase immigration. When Haruhiko Kuroda was appointed as governor of the BoJ, he came up with some changes and initiated Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016, with rates of 0 per cent long-term, -0.1 per cent short and medium-term. Now the Banks had to pay BoJ interest for their deposits. After the implementation of these changes, the Abe government had some success in increasing GDP and inflationary expectations were created.

Further, Dr. Dasgupta explained the failures of Abenomics. Some of them are that the real GDP growth declined, consumption rates remained stagnant, the government deficit grew, and labor force participation lowered as structural reforms were never implemented.

Dr. Dasgupta explained the ramifications of Abenomics for the Japanese economy, highlighting a fluctuating pattern in comparison to the dollar. This was accompanied by a decline in both productivity and consumption, alongside mild inflation resulting from the aggressive quantitative easing (QE) that bolstered the value of the Yen vis-à-vis the USD. However, with the assumption of Kazuo Ueda as the Governor of the BoJ, the QE was terminated. Consequently, Japan found itself designated as a currency manipulator, rendering it susceptible to potential sanctions. Of note, the US initiated non-cooperation with Japan during the US-Japan-South Korea meeting, emphasising the need for close consultation.

He also spoke on the impact on tourism and defense modernisation, stating that Japan has increased its defense modernisation budget, ranking 6th in expenditure.

Questions and Comments

Scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of inquiries. Questions were raised about the internal pressure on Japan to strengthen the Yen, the structural changes in the Japanese economy, the potential impact of advancing Chinese technology, the decline of Japanese technology, and the role of the US in reinvigorating the Japanese economy.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta provided insightful answers to the questions.

Report was prepared by Mr. Rajnish Kumar, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre.

Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, made a presentation on “Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to India and India-Bangladesh Relations” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 1 July 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and other IDSA scholars participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The meeting focused on Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India. The visit focused on enhancing collaboration in terms of defence cooperation, trade and commerce, frontier technologies including civil nuclear, oceanography and space technology. Both nations reiterated their commitment for a free, open, inclusive, secure, and rule-based Indo-Pacific region.

Detailed Report

Dr. Om Prakash Das convened the meeting by highlighting the significance of Sheikh Hasina’s visit on 21-22 June 2024, which was her first bilateral visit since being re-elected in January 2024, and also her second visit to India within a month following her attendance at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. This visit was notably significant as it was the first state visit after Prime Minister Modi's re-election for a third consecutive term.

Dr. Anand Kumar began his presentation by emphasising the importance of bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh and their mutual desire to guide the relationship into a new era of future-oriented partnership. Dr. Kumar outlined Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China in coming times, ongoing foreign currency crisis in Bangladesh and PM Hasina’s aim to ensure the continuous supply of essential commodities which are essential for maintaining political stability in Bangladesh, as the possible reasons for her visit.

Dr. Kumar informed the audience about the outcomes of the visit, marked by the signing of ten Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and thirteen announcements. Economic and trade cooperation between the two countries saw significant strides, with agreements to commence negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and Bangladesh offering two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to India in Mongla and Mirsharai. Dr. Kumar highlighted that while trade and commerce between India and Bangladesh have seen significant improvements, there remains limited engagement in defence industrial cooperation. India proposed defence industrial cooperation to modernise the Bangladesh Armed Forces, and an agreement was signed to train 350 Bangladesh police officers.

Dr. Kumar pointed out that transit and connectivity were major themes, with India expressing its intent to expand connectivity in physical, energy, and digital forms. MoUs were signed between the railways of both countries. According to Dr. Kumar, an important development was India's agreement to provide transit facilities for Bangladeshi goods to Nepal and Bhutan via Indian railways. Dr. Kumar drew attention to the agreements signed on energy and digital connectivity, including a pact between the National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI) and Bangladesh Bank to launch Unified Payment Interface (UPI) in Bangladesh. Further collaboration in frontier technologies was agreed upon, including civil nuclear, oceanography, and space technology.

Humanitarian issues were prominently discussed, with the renewal of an MoU between the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Ministry of Disaster Management for disaster relief. Additionally, India introduced e-Visas for Bangladeshi medical patients seeking treatment in India. On regional and diplomatic issues, Dr. Kumar noted the commitment of both nations for a free, open, inclusive, secure, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region. He informed about India’s commitment of continued support for resolving the Rohingya crisis. Dr. Kumar discussed the ongoing Teesta river issue and marked it as important to the extent that it can affect bilateral relations. He further informed that the Ganges Water Treaty, signed in 1996, is being renewed by mutual consent, with a technical team established to conduct groundwork.

Dr. Kumar reiterated the Indian Government’s commitment to strengthen the country's relations with its neighbours by highlighting remarks made by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Sheikh Hasina’s visit. The presentation concluded by acknowledging the mutual efforts of both nations to strengthen bilateral ties by ensuring that their relationship remains "future ready."

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy appreciated the detailed presentation by Dr. Kumar. He addressed several key challenges in bilateral ties by pointing out the prevailing sentiment among the Bangladeshi people regarding limited access to the Indian market. Amb. Chinoy queried the way forward to address this issue. He highlighted the complexities of dealing with smugglers in the border areas, often armed and travelling in large numbers at night, and the unwillingness of the Bangladeshi side to address these issues. Additionally, he raised concerns about the illegal entry of both Bangladeshis and Rohingyas into India, questioning the extent of India’s responsibility, given that it is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

During the Q&A session, Dr. Kumar responded to the question about Bangladeshi access to the Indian market by noting the interests of Indian businessmen must also be considered, necessitating detailed groundwork for a balanced approach. Addressing the question about West Bengal’s stance on water issues, Dr. Kumar explained the complexities surrounding the Teesta river, citing significant water usage upstream and Chinese involvement in reservoir construction. He suggested that India could assist Bangladesh in building reservoirs to mitigate Chinese influence, utilising the existing US$ 7 billion credit line, majority of which is still not used.

Gp. Capt. R.K. Narang inquired about the relative ease for Bangladeshis to set up companies in India compared to the challenges faced by Indian businesses in Bangladesh and the persistence of anti-India sentiments. Dr. Kumar attributed these sentiments to historical factors and the growing influence of Gulf-based Islamist ideology.

Mr. Arvind Khare, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, inquired about West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition to water discussions between India and Bangladesh without the State's consultation, questioning if her concerns align with national objectives. Dr. Kumar stated that while consultation with the state government is desirable, foreign policy matters come under the central government.

Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, mentioned the strategic importance of the Chittagong-Kolkata train route and the launch of the e-Suvidha Portal for border trade, highlighting the logistical advancements. She also said that Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China should not be seen as detrimental to India’s interests given the significant Indian investments.

Report prepared by Puspa Kumari, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.

Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised an interaction with a delegation from the French Institute for Advanced Studies in National Defence (IHEDN) on “India-France Bilateral Relations” on 27 May 2024. The interaction was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and attended by scholars from the Europe and Eurasia Centre, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, and Military Affairs Centre of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

The event provided a comprehensive overview of India-France Bilateral relations. It delved into historic ties of the two nations while also simultaneously analysing the current state of affairs and future prospects of developing this strategic partnership further. Diplomatic and defence ties between India and France, the current state of global affairs including violent clashes in Europe, West Asia, and the building up of tension in the Asian waters were discussed. Mention was made of French support towards India’s inclusion in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent membership, its decision to continue trade with India even when the west planned on boycotting India owing to its first successful nuclear weapon test. France has also been a crucial pillar in India’s journey of reducing Russian dependency for military imports. India has been a natural partner of France in the Indo-Pacific owing to its shared values and interests. It is a reliable and trustworthy ally which seeks to further deepen ties.

Detailed Report

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA delivered the opening remarks. He began by formally welcoming General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN and the French delegation to India. He mentioned the defence and strategic cooperation between India and France with an emphasis on cooperation in the maritime theatre, deepening defence and security ties, and greater convergence on many defence platforms. He mentioned that India would be happy to engage with the French over joint ventures, joint research and development projects, technology transfers for crucial defence systems, and alike. This could help the countries in their shared agenda of the fight against terrorism. Trilateral Cooperation for Development in Africa is another aspect where India and France can work together with a third African country in Africa. Such an arrangement can harness historical ties that French have with the continent along with India’s goodwill which has been increasing with the African countries.

Amb. Chinoy highlighted the current state of global affairs, which is governed by great power contestation. The US and China are caught in a tussle of trying to prove their supremacy over the other. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in war since February 2022. Post COVID-19 pandemic the world is witnessing a disruption in global supply chains and an increase in debt distress levels, especially in developing countries. The world is also witnessing certain non-state actors strengthening their hold on crucial points on the map. For instance, the Houthis have managed to get a stronghold on certain areas of Yemen which leaves them in control of crucial chokepoints like the Bab-al Mandab Strait. Simultaneously, there has been a spike in the piracy cases around that region. This reflects that if non-state actors were to get control of other chokepoints, we could witness an increase in the nature and number of disruptive issues around that area.

Amb. Chinoy mentioned that social media is yet another sector which has been growing exponentially. It has become a new frontier on a battlefield which is constantly evolving and affecting those who are far away from it. The battle of narratives is being fought ferociously on online platforms to try and control the mindset of global citizens. Greater number of countries are seeking multipolarity, reformed multilateralism and issue based alignments. In today’s globalised world, decoupling is not an option but it is very important to be able to de-risk policies and supply chains.  The concept of de-risking was first introduced by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. De-risking from China is vital for Europe as China has managed to link its geo-economic interests with geopolitics when dealing with other countries, be it allies or others.

In conclusion, Amb. Chinoy highlighted the need to reform our multilateral systems. He underlined the condition of the post World War II institutions aimed at maintaining peace and preventing another world war. It was mentioned that post cold war there has been no real adjustment made to ensure fair representation of the developing countries in structures such as the UNSC, multilateral banks and institutions. In this major power contestation the 7Ts of trade, technology, territory, terrorism, tenets (narratives), trust and transparency provide a frame of reference.

General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN commenced his address by thanking MP-IDSA for the hospitality. He mentioned that this was the first time that IHEDN decided to send such a large delegation to India, comprising 103 members. This was a natural choice for the French which reflected the strong partnership between the two countries. He drew parallels between India and France and pointed out that both the countries value multilateralism. What India means by multilateralism is what France’s idea of ‘not aligned’ is. There is a difference of terminology but the meaning of the terms is the same. Both India and France are global voices, meaning that when they have something to say at a global stage, the others listen. Both are nuclear power wielding countries which behave responsibly and do not threaten the use of nuclear weapons on those who do not align with their views. For France, diplomacy and democracy are very significant aspects. It upholds democratic values above all else.

Speaking of defence institutions, General Durieux said that it is important for military institutions and foreign policy institutes to understand the reasons as to why military force is employed. It matters how decision makers view defence and political issues and at times we may observe a slight overlap between the two. Climate crises is one such instance where the scale of threat is ever changing based on new developments. Not only this, new technological tools like artificial intelligence (AI), cyberspace, and drones will change our society and we will have to wait and watch for the kind of impact it has in the long run. General Durieux urged both the countries to work tirelessly towards the reality of their strategic partnership.

General Durieux concluded by saying that it is the duty of think tanks to engage and develop partnerships at the institutional level to exchange ideas and thoughts. He also mentioned an upcoming French Institute by the name of ‘French Defence University’ which will be an association of 23 research institutions focused on military education and training. He extended an invitation for a delegation from MP-IDSA led by Amb. Sujan Chinoy, to participate in the second edition of the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum scheduled in March 2025, before concluding his remarks.

Amb. Sujan Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA was the first speaker on the panel and he spoke on “Evolving Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific”. He began by discussing India’s core strategic outlook which reflected the teachings of Gandhi and Buddha and deeply cherishs India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as cornerstones of its economic growth. India has its own set of challenges but it has never aggressed against other nations as the first mover. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s rapid rise has been somewhat disruptive. It has not been able to adjust to the global rise of other countries and the world too has not been able to adjust to China’s rapid rise in Asian waters. China has benefitted immensely from the current world order but it is unhappy that the reigns of agenda-setting are still in the hands of the West.

Amb. Chinoy highlighted the criticality of the Indo-Pacific and how the concept evolved from the old terminology ‘Asia-Pacific’. Earlier economic development was restricted to certain pockets in south-east Asia but with time, this has spread. Thereby, the term Indo-Pacific being more inclusive. Speaking of international waters, Amb Chinoy also explained the cruciality of various chokepoints in maritime trade routes like the Bab-al-Mandab, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Sunda Strait amongst others. If control of these points were to fall in the hands of non-state actors, it would make things very complicated for the states. Groupings like the Quad were also mentioned by the Amb. Its re-birth since 2017, when it was elevated from Senior Official/Minister level dialogue to Summit level. Malabar exercises and Quad partners’ individual bilateral exercises also found mention.

Indo-Pacific is a strategically important geolocation which also harbours the waters around the Quad countries but here China’s increased presence is witnessed in Micronesia and Polynesia. It has overlapping claims with many countries regarding the Nine- Dash Line. It is involved in illegal fishing, building artificial islands and has been threatening Taiwan with frequent sorties without having ruled out the option of use of force yet on Taiwan. There is increasing support in favour of Taiwan but powers like the United States still maintain an ambiguous stand on the issue of supporting Taiwan over China. Beijing has made inroads into ASEAN and made several ASEAN countries dependent on it, thereby fracturing any possible consensus to stand united in the face of the dragon.

Amb. Chinoy stated that all major powers are present in the Indo-Pacific.  India is a peninsular country with a vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Its vision for the Indo-Pacific was well defined by the Prime Minister in 2018 as an “open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region”. SAGAR and its extension- SagarMala project- are aimed at linking India’s inland ports and waterways to global shipping. India is also an observer in Australian Naval exercises, apart from being a participant in some. Concluding his remarks, Amb. Chinoy highlighted the 7 pillars of the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and the role of Japan, Australia, France, Singapore and Indonesia as important partners of India in different pillars of this programme.

Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA was the second Speaker on the panel and she spoke on “Evolving Dimensions of India-France Bilateral Ties”. She began by congratulating the IHEDN delegation for successfully hosting the International Session for the Indo-Pacific (SIIP) 2023 in Paris. She pointed out that India has a 2+2 mechanism with its close allies like Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and others but not with France. The reason being that India and France are natural allies who have managed to build close ties even without such a mechanism. This speaks volumes about the bond of trust between the two countries but the real question is where does this trust come from. It primarily flows from two major documents signed by the Indian and French leadership. First is ‘Horizon 2047 Roadmap’ signed during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Paris as the Chief Guest for the Bastille Day celebrations on 14 July 2023. Second is the ‘Defence Industry Roadmap’ signed during President Macron’s visit to India as the Chief Guest for the 75th Republic Day on 26 January 2024.

The Horizon 2047 Roadmap will coincide with the centenary of India’s independence, the centenary of diplomatic relations between India and France, and 50 years of the strategic partnership. These documents mention the bilateral defence industrial collaboration; bilateral, trilateral and triangular cooperation; and outlines the comprehensive matrix of engagement between the two. France has proved to be India’s true ally time and again. Dr. Rao recalled that in 1998 when the west imposed sanctions on India for conducting nuclear weapons tests, France did not abide by those sanctions. It continued to engage with India on its own terms. Another instance is the US built Tarapur reactors where US was supplying fuel until complications arose due to the non-proliferation issue. It was France which came to India’s aid and supplied nuclear fuel until 1992.

Highlighting India’s role in the globalised world today, Dr. Rao mentioned India as the indisputable leader of the Global South. France is focused on the developmental agenda in the Indo-Pacific, which India often misses to take note of. Agence France Trésor, the French agency responsible for managing the State's finances, is fully committed to it. She also mentioned India and France together tackling global issues like climate change, poverty and welfare policies, especially in third world countries. The trilateral developmental cooperation between India and France in Africa is a classic example of this.

Dr. Rao mentioned space cooperation as a significant aspect of India-France bilateral ties. It is rooted in history similar to defence cooperation and can be traced back to 1960s. Joint space collaboration between Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the French National Space Agency (CNES) has resulted in two world class space missions. CNES has also opened a permanent liaison office in Bengaluru.  India and France have held two space dialogues and France is the third country with which India has held space dialogues after US and Japan.

To conclude, the collaboration and cooperation between India and France is at a high point and according to Dr. Rao this can be taken forward by focusing on bilateral ties, encouraging people to people relations, resuming work on projects like the Jaitapur Nuclear power plant which have been stuck for a while now.  

Dr S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on “India-France Defence Industry Cooperation”. He noted that in the past decade India was France’s top defence export destination and France was India’s second highest defence supplier after Russia. India was the biggest arms export market for Russia, France, and Israel from 2014-2023. France’s share in global arms exports in 2019-23 stood at 11 per cent, making it the second biggest exporter of arms globally for the first time, after the United States and ahead of Russia, China and Germany. Dr. Rajiv highlighted that aircrafts and ships were the top category of weapons exports, followed by missiles, sensors and engines.

Dr. Rajiv then highlighted some key aspects relating to French defence companies in India. The first company to find mention was Dassault Aviation. The Indian Air Force (IAF) was the first export customer of Dassault Aviation in 1953 when it ordered the Ouragans/Toofani aircrafts. India also secured the Mirages and Rafale jets. The naval version of the Rafale has also been selected by India for its aircraft carrier air wing. He noted that India selected the French fighter despite stiff competition from Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet. India will be the first country outside France to field both land and naval versions of the Rafale.

Dr. Rajiv noted India’s acquisition of Scorpene submarines (from the Naval Group) with the sixth expected to be commissioned later this year. Safran has been present in India since the last 65 years and 75 per cent of the Indian aircrafts and helicopters use Safran engines comprising equipment like the Inertial Navigation Systems, with the latter co-developed with Indian public sector companies like BEL, with contributions from DRDO as well. Thales also has a significant presence with more than 2,000 employees and joint ventures with many Indian companies. It provides significant components for the Rafale jets. Dr. Rajiv pointed out that 16 per cent of the total offset contracts (by number) are being executed by French companies.

Highlighting key trends, Dr. Rajiv noted that Indian military aircraft imports have witnessed increased imports from European manufacturers like Dassault and Airbus in recent times while imports from Russia have declined. He highlighted that India’s defence engagement with strategic partners such as France will increasingly take place in the backdrop of the ongoing defence transformation with defence indigenisation and domestic procurement being key focus areas. He noted that India’s defence budgets have seen adequate allocations to cater to defence modernisation needs. At the same time, he noted that India’s defence budgets are less than 2 per cent of its GDP.

In conclusion, Dr. Rajiv highlighted key aspects of the India-France Horizon 2047 document in which both countries have pledged to build sovereign defence capabilities together as well as cooperate in co-development and co-production of advanced defence technologies.

Q&A Session

This session comprised of questions from the IHEDN delegation, relating to a range of themes associated with India-French relations and current geopolitical relations and tensions across the globe.

First question was regarding the Indian perspective on closer Russia - China relations as a result of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, considering that India has its own set of issues with China. To this Amb. Chinoy responded by saying that Russia - China relations have had their ups and down and in fact quite a bit of Chinese socialist culture is borrowed from the USSR. Historically, it was the Soviet Union that taught China the ways and means of doing business. The closeness of Russia - China ties is not only a concern for India but also the western powers but it is only expected given the current global scenario. For Russia, it is more of an alliance of convenience as they do not seem very happy playing second fiddle to China. 

Second question was regarding India’s reliance on Russian oil, weapons and arms and how that could be impacted by a deeper China - Russia nexus. Amb. Chinoy responded to this by saying that India is buying oil from Russia just like China and the others are. Even Japan is buying nearly 10 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. Fuel trade is essentially governed by the price factor and if any other country was to offer a cheaper price for oil to India, it would not hesitate to buy from them. Buying Russian oil makes economical sense given the high demand in the Indian market. India is one of the top 5 economies in the world with a steady projected rise to reach new heights. It needs affordable energy to meet daily requirements and it is not self-sufficient in oil. Hence, the oil trade from Russia.

Next question was regarding India’s position in the multi-aligned world and the pros and cons of it. Amb. Chinoy responded by emphasising India’s strategic autonomy and how it plans on maintaining its indigenous strategic thinking, its culture and the choice of what to do and what not to do. The new India today is not going to take orders from other countries, rather it wants to exercise its independent choice and strategic autonomy. The soldiers of Indian origin fighting on the side of the UK in the world war on European soil did not have a real choice but to do as ordered by the imperialists. The non-alignment movement (NAM) was founded to let nations take their own decisions and not be influenced by any of the blocs during the Cold War. Many of the Global South countries were also a part of it since 1961.

Amb. Chinoy recalled the India - China War, when India requested weapons from the US (even though some shipments arrived late) in exercise of its strategic autonomy, notwithstanding its non-aligned policy. Another instance cited by Amb. Chinoy was the 1971 India-Pakistan War when US sent its 7th fleet to the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India but it did not give into any kind of pressure. India took its own decision to conclude a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the USSR. Every single time that India has faced war on any of its borders, it was left to defend itself on its own. This highlights the fact that territorial integrity and sovereignty need to be maintained at all costs.

Next question from the floor was in connection with India’s role in the Global South, with regard to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and also about the new world order that India seeks to build. Amb. Chinoy responded by highlighting that India’s per capita GDP is unlikely to decline anytime soon. India as a member of the Global South is a given. It wants to be a positive representative of the region, a friend. According to Amb. Chinoy, BRICS does not have much of a future even though today it comprises 30 per cent of the global GDP which is around 30 trillion USD.  He even referred to the recent expansion of BRICS and how the organisation might face issues with the commodity economy given the volatility involved. This became evident when China faced problems while dealing with financial sectors like banking and having to bail them out. Speaking of harmony and convergence, Amb. Chinoy pointed out that G20 is one such global structure which can serve as a platform to converge views from different geographies of the world. G7, European Union, African Union, the P-5 and the BRICS are all a part of the G20. There are no veto powers in the grouping and it is fully functional. It’s a dream team.

Subsequent questions were around the current Taliban regime in Afghanistan and India’s take on this, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as to what will lead to an Indian military intervention in Ukraine. The query was addressed by stating that India’s military intervention in Ukraine is a far-fetched idea. Regarding Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan, Amb. Chinoy mentioned that Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan is a peculiar situation. Social policies and welfare schemes have certainly come under scrutiny since Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan. Freedom and education of women and girls has been severely curtailed. Given the regional dynamics, we can only hope that Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for terrorist outfits again.

The last two queries were regarding decarbonisation and green development of the developing economies, and India’s priorities with regard to reform of multilateral structures. Addressing the former question, Amb. Chinoy highlighted the role played by sectors like electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries in helping developing countries deal with their growing energy demands in a clean fashion. The developmental finance promised by the developed countries is crucial to green transformation of the Global South but this funding is yet to reach the developing markets.

With regard to reforms of multilateral structures, Amb. Chinoy emphasised the permanent membership of the UNSC. It was formed in 1945, but since then the world has changed a lot and the membership (non-permanent) of the organisation was only expanded once. He recalled the debates at ECOSOC (Economic and Social Council) from 1961-65 resulting in a one – time expansion of the UNSC’s non-permanent membership but since then, nothing has been done. It is not only the UNSC but also the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), International Financial Institutions (IFIs), and Bretton Woods structures which need to be reformed. Even the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) quota of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been amended only once around 2009. Amb. Chinoy pointed out that India’s SDR quota is lower than the UK, even though its GDP is more than that of the UK. SDRs have not kept pace with time. Greater finance should be made available to people and the likes of hybrid finance need to be promoted, especially among the developing countries.

After concluding the Q&A session, Ambassador Chinoy thanked General Benoît Durieux, Director General, IHEDN, the French delegation, and the audience for a fruitful engagement.

Report has been prepared by Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.