Events

Remarks by Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

Security Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Landscape

Director General, IDSA, Dr Arvind Gupta
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen

It is a pleasure to be here in New Delhi, and to speak at your august institution, the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Let me begin by thanking Dr Gupta and the IDSA for this opportunity to address all of you today. What I think could be useful to discuss is our perspectives and hopefully, collectively, come to some sensible steps in which India and Singapore can jointly move together to try to shape a more conducive environment.

Next month, New Delhi will host the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit to mark 20 years of ASEAN-India dialogue partnership and the 10th anniversary of the ASEAN-India Summit-level partnership. Before I came to India, I met your High Commissioner in Singapore and he updated me on the two flagship events to commemorate these milestones. First, there will be an ASEAN-India car rally from Yogyakarta in Indonesia, to New Delhi that would traverse through eight ASEAN countries. This event seems quite exciting and the car aficionados amongst you might still be able to sign up for this car rally. Second, there is also an expedition by the Indian Navy sail training ship INS Sudarshini that set sail from India in mid-September and is now mid-way through a journey that would see it call at nine ASEAN countries in all. These two events reflect and symbolise the strengthening of ties between the Governments as well as the peoples of India and ASEAN.

You will remember that in 1991, India embarked on its "Look East" policy. Yet, if you think about it, the engagements, the movement of people, the exchange of merchandise and ideas between India and ASEAN in the east are as old as the history of maritime trade itself. The ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting had gathered in Phnom Penh in the middle of this year and we also had a formal retreat a few days ago in Siem Reap in Cambodia, where Secretary Panetta met with us informally as well. Obviously, when you go to Siem Reap, you have to visit Angkor Wat. The visit to Angkor Wat was a reminder of the Indian influence in Southeast Asia. I think the late King Norodom Sihanouk of Cambodia said it well when dedicating a boulevard in Phnom Penh to India's first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. And if I can quote him: "In fact, it was about 2,000 years ago that the first navigators, Indian merchants and Brahmins, brought to our ancestors their Gods, their techniques, their organization." The monuments at Angkor Wat, Borobudur, Preah Vihear, Prambanan, and Po Klong Garai are living reminders of the Indian influence in Southeast Asia. Thailand's International Airport is named Suvarnabhumi, Sanskrit for "Land of Gold", which was what ancient Indians called today's Peninsular Southeast Asia. Indeed, Thailand's Buddhist kings claim spiritual descent from India's legendary God-king Rama.

Singapore too has retained our Sanskrit name, "Lion Town" derived from the Sanskrit words simha and pura. Despite being a Chinese majority country, the Indian influence in Singapore is strong and as many of you who had visited Singapore will be quick to realise, this Indian influence has been melded indivisibly to create the unique Singapore of today. When you come to Singapore, the numerous street names, the culture, the food, the festivities, reflect an Indian heritage that is part and parcel of our multicultural and multiracial nation.

India's engagement with ASEAN and its influence on what makes ASEAN what it is today is a historical fact. Inevitably the question would be asked, what of the future - what role does India see for itself in the Asia Pacific region in the 21st Century, the Asian Century?

Changing dynamics in the Asia Pacific region

The growth of Asia certainly looks promising, based on current trends. India's long-term outlook remains bright, driven by strong economic fundamentals - large domestic savings and investments matched by strong domestic demand and a stable of World-class companies. In contrast to Europe, India has a young population, with half of its population currently under the age of 25. The demographic dividends will be reaped in the future. Just one metric to illustrate this - India's workforce will grow to 1 billion in 2030, from 780 million in 2010, and could potentially add two percentage points per annum to India's GDP growth for the next two decades, just based on the input of manpower on India's economy alone. China is currently reaping that demographic dividend, though this will tail off because China's population is ageing. Singapore had previously reaped that same demographic dividend because we had the baby boomers born in the 1950s, though now we are ageing as well. Some project India’s economy at US$5 trillion in 2030, quadruple what it is today.

China's economy is estimated to grow to US$16.5 trillion by 2030. By then, ASEAN is projected to have a population of 740 million people, by and large still young, and a combined GDP of US$3.2 trillion, roughly double what India is today. By then, Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Asia will account for half of the world's population, with a growing middle class that will drive global demand for goods and services. Asia's economies are expected to account for more than 40 per cent of global output by 2030.

I think the numbers, the projections, the fundamentals are certainly very promising for Asia. But I think all of us here are realists and also students of history and history reminds us that projections are not always accurate predictions or pre-ordained certainties. Risks exist and history is replete with examples of "might have beens" as promising countries stumbled due to a variety of reasons. The recent escalation of tensions due to territorial disputes within the South China and East China Sea reminds us that miscalculations can set many countries on a downward trajectory. I give you one example of an incident which occurred between Japan and China as a result of the dispute in the East China Sea. In the wake of protests and boycotts, Japanese businesses shut hundreds of stores and factories in China and flights between two countries were cut. Sales of Japanese cars in China dropped by 60% in October, on a year-on-year basis, while visits by Chinese tourists to Japan dropped by a third. Just as a result of this one incident.

Stakeholder countries in Asia would therefore do well to work hard to ensure that virtuous conditions that we have today are maintained so that we can continue to cooperate and grow. We need to examine this complex dynamic and to understand how we can maintain these virtuous conditions. And I think the most critical relationship for the Asia-Pacific, or if you like, the Indo-Pacific, is the US-China relationship. How the US and China deal with one another will impact us all. All of us recognise that strategic rivalry will exist between a resident and a rising power. But beyond this, both sides have declared their intent on expanding cooperation. As I told you, we met Secretary Panetta in Siem Reap a few days ago, and he said in that meeting that the US Department of Defence pledged to step up strategic dialogue and build better relations with China. It is clear that much work remains to be done for US-China ties to achieve a more productive, less contentious footing.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula, transnational threats arising from terrorism, nuclear proliferation, pandemics and natural disasters are other concerns that none of us can choose to ignore. Nor can these concerns be solved by any one country, no matter how well resourced.

Building regional consensus and practical cooperation

To respond to these challenges effectively and to secure our futures, we need a cooperative and inclusive framework that allows stakeholders first and foremost to develop relationships based on trust and goodwill. As your Defence Minister A K Antony noted at the 2012 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, "a spirit of consensus needs to be fostered on issues that have common resonance" to member countries. There can be no greater issue of common resonance than our shared peace and prosperity.

To realise these common aspirations, we have begun to build platforms that forge an open and inclusive regional security architecture. In the past decade, ASEAN established the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2005, the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) in 2006 and the ADMM-Plus in 2010. Let me elaborate a little on the ADMM-Plus because it is important in the security context. The ADMM-Plus brings together all the key regional stakeholders. The ADMM member states had carefully deliberated on the structure and size of ADMM-Plus, we didn't want it too big such that it was unwieldy, or too small such that it was exclusive. So we decided that it would be a 10 plus eight configuration, with 10 ASEAN countries and eight "Plus" countries - Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the US. These platforms, the East Asia Summit, the ADMM, the ADMM-Plus, together with the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and APEC, allow us to address the host of economic, cultural and security challenges and opportunities, promote dialogue, and trust and confidence among its members, and initiate responses to deal with regional challenges. For example, the Shangri-La Dialogue is a forum where countries can come together for constructive dialogue to reach that "spirit of consensus".

The ADMM-Plus has also another unique feature - that of military to military relations. That is something that the security agencies have over and above dialogue where militaries can exercise and cooperate with one another to build confidence and understanding. I am happy to report that we have made good progress in instituting practical cooperation between the ADMM-Plus militaries in areas of common security interest: Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), maritime security, military medicine, counter-terrorism and peacekeeping operations. Experts' Working Groups, or EWGs, have been established in each of these areas to conduct exercises, dialogues, table-top exercises, full troop exercises. These exercises can be large and very complex but they are also very instructive and productive in building that military-to-military confidence. Next year, Brunei will host a ADMM-Plus HADR / Military Medicine full troop exercise that will bring together the 18 ADMM-Plus militaries off the coast of Brunei. I think it will be a wonderful exercise, a very ambitious one, with full asset involvement, troops on the ground and will also involve both US and China in the same exercise. India has also pledged to contribute a very substantial contingent and I would like to congratulate India for playing that role.

Singapore believes that India can and should play a major role in these various fora to promote peace, stability and progress for the region. India is a rising power. India signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2003 and committed itself to the peace and stability of Southeast Asia. India already participates closely in the EAS, the ARF, the ADMM-Plus and the Shangri-La Dialogue. India's perspectives and leadership would add to the balance of interests in the region.

India's greater engagement of Southeast Asia, as it has done in the past through meaningful multilateral engagement and a strong web of bilateral relationships, would also serve India's strategic and economic interests in the future. ASEAN and India became dialogue partners 20 years ago and the results of this engagement are clear. Since this engagement as dialogue partners, trade and investment between ASEAN and India prospered and increased about 20 times. From 2010 to 2011 alone, ASEAN-India bilateral trade increased by 43% from US$52 billion to US$75 billion.

Singapore-India Bilateral Relations

Ties between Singapore and India today are excellent on all fronts, from trade to culture to education and defence. In 2005, both countries signed the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), India's first-ever Free Trade Agreement. Trade between India and Singapore last year stood at US$28.5 billion, more than double what it was five years ago, and triple what it was when the CECA was signed. Singapore looks forward to the conclusion of the second review and update of CECA.

The people-to-people ties between India and Singapore are also better than ever. Many Indian nationals live and work in Singapore, including large numbers of IIT and IIM alumni. Some of you may also remember the International Indian Film Academy Awards Weekend. We were very happy that the Indian Film Academy chose Singapore as the site for their awards because it not only added to our GDP, but also because Singapore has a lot of Bollywood fans and they had a good time just stargazing at the many beautiful and handsome actresses and actors.

Our defence ties have also strengthened, especially after the signing of the Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2003. We now have an annual Defence Policy Dialogue chaired by the Permanent Secretaries. Ministers frequently exchange visits and Minister Antony spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this year.

The Air Force and Army Bilateral Agreements were first signed in 2007 and 2008, respectively. As I speak, the Singapore and Indian Armies are conducting bilateral artillery training in Devlali, which we call Exercise Agni Warrior. I have personally visited our bilateral exercise in Devlali before and it is a very good exercise, held at very good training grounds. Both our air forces are also conducting Joint Military Training in West Bengal. Our navies have also held training exercises for a long time since 1994.

I think that these extensive and regular interactions between our countries prove that the bilateral partnership exists, while the fora for cooperation exists in a multilateral setting. The architecture is there but it needs to be strengthened.

Conclusion

President Pranab Mukherjee said, when he was External Affairs Minister in 2007: "India is not just a motor of regional growth, it can equally be the bulwark of regional security." As a close friend of India, Singapore agrees with President Mukherjee and welcomes greater Indian engagement with the region. Singapore looks forwards to working with India to forge peace and prosperity for Asia.

I look forward to an exchange of views in terms of your perspectives of how Singapore and India can work together in this important venture. Thank you very much.

Transcript of Question and Answer Session of Defence Minister of Singapore, Dr Ng Eng Hen' s Talk on ‘Security Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Landscape’

A media delegation from the 18 member countries of the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) visited IDSA to interact with the Director-General, Dr. Arvind Gupta and other IDSA experts on issues pertaining to India’s role in the IOR-ARC.

Dr. Gupta briefed the delegation on the IDSA’s mission and its research agenda. He also gave the delegation an overview of India’s Foreign Policy which is based on the following tenets – strategic autonomy in foreign policy-making, economic reforms and opening up of markets in the early 1990s and lastly, the changing security environment where India has to deal with both traditional and non-traditional security threats. As far as the Indian Ocean region is concerned, Dr. Gupta stressed that in addition to being a re-discovery of India’s oceanic past, the region is important for its security, peace and development. Of late, there has been an increased interest in the region, especially on issues such as maritime security, diaspora and climate change. India, for its part, is trying to find its way and is making its contribution to deal with these issues. In the process, it is trying to arrive at a holistic response.

The delegation raised numerous questions on issues related to Indian Ocean region. The overarching subject was maritime security and piracy. On the Strait of Malacca, it was stated that the strait is very much a part of India’s security perimeter and there is a need to be more proactive and have joint patrols in the strait. Although currently there are no joint patrols, talks are on to have them in the future. On the question of whether India can be expected to help Mauritius manage its maritime security and address piracy, it was said that at the moment, it depends on the request made by the host country. However, India is exploring the option of building facilities in Seychelles and Mauritius. With regard to India’s take on the ‘string of pearls’ and dual usage of ports, it was stated though peaceful port visits is a non-issue, usage of ports during heightened conflict must be based on the laws of neutrality. On the question of whether India feels encircled by China, the response was that China was not a major concern for India but would be so only during heightened conflict. As far as the American presence in the region is concerned, it is likely to continue to remain in the region and is also essential for the security architecture of the region. The Asian countries have not yet considered a role in the region without the American presence. The IOR-ARC has not yet evolved enough to deal with hard-core security issues that still remain out of its purview. The Association is constrained by limitations such as insufficient budget capacities, lack of institutional and national capabilities to tackle security issues. However, if they can overcome these challenges, then perhaps the dependency on extra-regional powers can be omitted.

On the issue of trying pirates legally, it was noted that Malaysia has set a precedent and other countries that don’t have legislations on piracy should follow suit. India is in the process of getting a bill on piracy passed. Another issue that was raised was regarding the decrease in piracy on the eastern coast of Africa while it is increasing on the western coast. It was observed that there is no direct co-relation between the two and that piracy on the West coast is not a new phenomenon. As far as Chinese ‘economic incursions’ into Africa is concerned, there is no reason why India has to compete with China in the continent; African countries welcome both the Asian giants and there is space for both their markets. India’s ties with Africa date back to the ancient times and in the recent years, it has become more institutionalised with engagement taking place on three levels – bilateral, regional and continental.

There were also questions on other issues such as the mediating role that India could play between Iran and the West. It was pointed out that at the moment there is no appetite for meditation. But if both the parties agree, then India would be open to mediation. Similarly, India will also not mediate between Israel and Iran unless it is requested to do so. As far as the dispute between India and Bangladesh over maritime boundary is concerned, it was opined that it would serve the interests of both the parties to wait for the verdict from the International Tribunal. On the inclusion of Somalia and Pakistan in the IOR-ARC, the future possibility of their membership was not excluded. With regard to India-Yemen cooperation, it was said that the two countries share good bilateral relations and the Indian government is open to deepening trade and economic relations.

Report prepared by Keerthi Sampath Kumar, Research Assistant, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Venue: Room No 005, IDSA

Speaker: H.E. Mr. Tarek Azouz, Ambassador of Tunisia to India

Chair: Ambassador Deepak Bhojwani
Keynote Address: H.E. Mr Javier Paulinich, Ambassador of Peru to India

In order to explore ways for India to strengthen its ties with the South American region and forge greater engagement at the diplomatic level, the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) organised a conference on “Security Issues in Latin America: Experience of UNASUR.” The main participants of the conference included ambassadors from various Latin American and Caribbean countries along with academic experts and former Indian diplomats. This conference aimed to understand the process of regional integration that is underway in South America through the workings of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) as well as ponder on the institutional mechanisms available at the hands of UNASUR to tackle the multiple security challenges in the region. The outcome of the conference was the important recognition amongst the participants that both India and South American countries can derive lessons from each other on democracy and social inclusion.

The UNASUR, being the newest regional integration project in South America, has displayed tremendous promise in developing mechanisms for amicable resolution of conflicts in the region. It was established in December 2004 as an intergovernmental union integrating the existing customs union MERCOSUR and the Andean Community of Nations and came into existence formally in 2008 when the UNASUR Constitutive Treaty was signed in Brazil. It has set for itself an ambitious agenda of achieving a unified passport, parliament and eventually a single currency. UNASUR is structured around four main organs, namely the Council of Heads of State and Government, Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Council of Delegates and the General Secretariat. Apart from these organs, it has nine Sectoral/Ministerial councils dealing with issues like social development, health, education, and drug trafficking. One of the key sectoral councils of UNASUR pertains to defence and in recent years this council has realised the necessity of creating a regional military doctrine. To this end, UNASUR created the think-tank Defence Strategic Studies Center (CEED) in May, 2011. To further the process of integration in the defence sphere, Peru will host a summit for Heads of State and Governments of UNASUR to discuss the “Protocol of Peace and Security Cooperation”, on November 30, 2012. However, the defence council would not be a NATO-like alliance. Instead, it will be a cooperative security arrangement with forward looking agendas such as multilateral military cooperation, promotion of confidence and security building measures, and fostering defence industry exchanges.

As mentioned by one of the discussants, in its short history UNASUR has attained a good deal of legitimacy as a result of some important achievements including its key role in mediating the Colombia-Venezuela diplomatic crisis in 2010, creating a heightened UNASUR Fund of US$100 million, limiting defence expenditures, reducing crime, integrating energy and financial systems, and by handling constitutional crises in Ecuador and Paraguay. Drawing a comparison between UNASUR, SAARC and BIMSTEC, one panellist pointed out that the progress in forging regional integration in South Asia has been relatively slow and should draw upon the experience of UNASUR in promoting regional integration in South America.

It was also pointed out during the course of the conference that it was noteworthy to see countries in Latin America coming together to form overlapping regional and sub-regional alliances, a prime example being UNASUR among others like the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and MERCOSUR. There has been a tangential movement on the Pacific Coast between Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Mexico to form the Pacific Alliance. These trends have generated immense interest in India to understand the dynamics of Latin American integration by identifying the key drivers of the process.

One of the key speakers of the conference shed light on the fact that UNASUR was the first and most holistic undertaking in the political history of South America, with an exciting agenda of dealing with social, political, economic, cultural, and technology related issues. He highlighted some fundamental facts about the South American region, stating that six of the South American countries belong to the Mega diverse category. He believed that the idea behind UNASUR was to come together and forge ties in the most innovative ways by drawing on the progress made by the 12 UNASUR countries and take decisions by consensus. He stated that UNASUR can be utilised to make South America a region of peace and security. For this, the South American nations would need to approach regional issues from a non-ideological standpoint, particularly in the economic sphere. One of its key priorities is to promote citizen participation among others in the realm of socio-economic improvement. UNASUR has already established the Centre for the Study of Democracy in Lima, Peru to realise this objective. One of the main objectives that UNASUR countries aim to pursue on a priority basis is to achieve social inclusion and equality.

Another discussant pointed out that the idea of South American integration existed even before the Cusco Declaration was signed in 2004. One of the most important aspects of South American integration, according to the discussant, pertains to that of physical integration - of connecting the two oceans of the Pacific and the Atlantic. Energy issues are therefore poised to play a very important role in enhancing this integration. The idea of non-ideological approach was also recognised to be essential in adding more substance to the integration process; the common willingness to work together in a pragmatic way already exists amongst the South American countries. In area of defence, a consolidation of the Non Use of Force doctrines by South American countries is one of the main tenets as evidenced by the fact that the region has not witnessed any major conflict in recent decades. Other important elements of common ground in the sphere of defence relate to the South American region being a nuclear weapons-free zone, its drive to deter external threats collectively, deterrence coordination and integration of defence industries. However, a caveat in this regard is that the defence council in UNASUR is still in its infancy and will have to be given the benefit of time to achieve maturity in order to act as a rallying force on defence issues. Further, South American countries are still away from maintaining common military forces.

A number of other issues were also flagged during the conference. References were made to the failure of the European Union (EU), usually considered the exemplar of regional integration, as far as financial issues are concerned. It was pointed out that even though there is a definite change in the mindset of elites in South American countries, as they are more willing to give a chance to principles of liberal democracy, it is indeed not a dramatic change. Also, UNASUR being a new project in regional integration will have to undergo a long process of evolution before it can claim to be successful without any degree of scepticism. The trend of hegemonic decline in the region is encouraging. But concerns were raised about indications of a new brand of Southern geopolitics brewing in the region that could turn UNASUR into a test case for Brazilian leadership.

While South American nations sometimes perceive major powers as external threats to their region, they also recognise the need to harness comparative advantages of respective countries. The US involvement in the region is bound to persist as it continues to attract migrants from Latin America. With respect to India, the South American countries believe there is tremendous scope for cooperation in areas such as non traditional security, maritime security and social cohesion. The panellists recognised that though the mechanism of decision making by consensus in a region as diverse as South America is a difficult task, the willingness to come together to forge a unified force is unmistakable. The possibility of establishing a regional peacekeeping force however was considered premature for the moment.

(Prepared by Sneha Bhura, Intern at IDSA)

Programme

10:00h -10:05h: Welcome Remarks, Dr. Arvind Gupta, DG IDSA
10:05h - 10:10h: Opening Remarks, Ambassador Deepak Bhojwani, Chair
10:10h - 10:25h: Remarks, H.E. Mr. Javier Paulinich, Ambassador of Peru to India (Pro Tempore President of UNASUR)
10:25h- 11:15h: Remarks, UNASUR Ambassadors/Experts (5 Min. each)
11:15h- 11:30h: Tea
11:30h - 13:00h: Interactive Session
13:00h: Lunch