Events

The First Track II Dialogue among India, Japan and South Korea was held in IDSA on 29 June 2012. This trilateral initiative was conceptualised in a meeting involving the Ambassador of Japan to India, Mr Akitaka Saiki, Ambassador of South Korea Mr. Kim Joong-Keun and Joint Secretary, East Asia in Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Mr. Gautam Bambawale. It was also mentioned in the joint statement between India and South Korea during the visit of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to Seoul in March last year. The core idea behind the trilateral initiative was that the three countries enjoy a strategic partnership based on shared values of democracy, strong economic linkage and common strategic interests. The track-II dialogue was supported by the Ministry of External Affairs and was organized under the aegis of Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, IDSA. Five scholars each from Tokyo Foundation of Japan and Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) of South Korea participated in this dialogue and presented their research.

Setting the tone of the deliberation, Mr. Sanjay Singh, Secretary East, MEA said, “We seek a peaceful and secure Asia free from the threats of terrorism, proliferation, piracy and conflicts between states. There is a common commitment to maintaining freedom of the seas, combating terrorism and promoting inclusive economic growth. India, Japan and ROK depend heavily on the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) for their energy security.” He also added that he expected the trilateral to “generate ideas that would influence the wider relationship existing amongst the partners at governmental level and at the people-to-people level and develop a shared understanding on how we view our region and the emerging Asian architecture. This impact will be good measure of the success of this process.”

Welcoming the delegates, Dr. Arvind Gupta, DG, IDSA, stated that the three countries should come together to stimulate new ideas and thoughts to bring about better coordination and cooperation for peace and development for the region as well as the world at large. He further said that at present, the three countries are facing challenges of rapidly changing geopolitical environment and the emergence of new security threats, both at regional as well as global levels. He added that a sustained dialogue among the three countries is extremely important and the Track II seminar will be instrumental in stimulating some ideas to carry forward such a dialogue. H.E. Mr. Akitaka Saiki, Japanese Ambassador to India said that the three countries, with second, third and fourth highest GDPs in Asia and their active membership of the G-20, have a great responsibility, individually and collectively, towards the region and the world at large. H.E. Mr. Kim Joong-Keun, South Korean Ambassador to India, lauded the initiative to hold dialogue among the states and hoped that the Track II dialogue would soon be transformed into Track I dialogue.

Suggestions

Security Issues

Participants suggested various issues for future deliberation on trilateral cooperation. Maritime security cooperation, especially piracy in Indian Ocean Region can be discussed. Japan, India and South Korea can play a constructive role in creating a consensus on the freedom of navigation in the context of South China Sea.

It was opined that issues related to terrorism and cyber security can be also be discussed in future dialogue. The three countries could also share each other’s strategic view, for example scenario-making process aimed at understanding the future developments on their respective socio-economic-political spheres.

Non-Traditional Security

The general view was that issues such as energy security, transnational crimes including drug trafficking, arms smuggling etc could be explored. Prospects at the signing of a Trilateral Search and Rescue Agreement among India, Japan and South Korea could also be discussed.

Miscellaneous

Social security issues can be an important area of cooperation. Public health can also be an important area of cooperation. Cooperation in the field of Science and Technology including space could be an important issue of discussion.

Global governance issues like reforms of the UN Security Council, IMF and WTO can also be discussed and debated. Future dialogue should come out with some suggestions regarding how to promote trade and investment among the three countries. Conduct of joint research projects among the three institutes representing the three countries.

Report prepared by Dr. Shamshad Khan

Inaugural address: Shri Sanjay, Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs

Venue: Seminar Hall I, IDSA

Speaker: Shri Talmiz Ahmad, India’s Former Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Chairperson: General Satish Nambiar

Discussants: Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain, Military Secretary, Integrated Headquarters (Army), Ministry of Defence
Prof. Rajesh Rajagopalan, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Dr. Namrata Goswami’s paper defines insurgencies as violent struggle against the state for legitimacy and influence over relevant populations. In order to win against any insurgency, the first core insight for any counter-insurgency force is to gain the support of the population. Coupled with population support is the criticality of efficient intelligence though these are not the ultimate required measures. Dr. Goswami’s paper discusses counter-insurgency best practices and the means to operationalize these practices on the ground by identifying nine best practices.

The paper selects the best practices based on a literature survey on counter-insurgency theory, doctrines and manuals of the Indian, British and US military and also on the field experiences of the author in Northeast India to have a more focused study. The author affirms that insurgency is unique after having conducted work on the ground in the conflict affected states in Northeast India. But, there are certain common features of counter-insurgency that are valid across time and space as indicated by the literatures on counter-insurgency which is used as the frame of reference by the author in the paper. Based on the works on counter-insurgency which have been utilized in this paper, the author has identified nine best practices spanning across time and space for detailed study in this paper: Primacy of Political Goals; Centre of Gravity; Population; Counter-Propaganda; Resolute Leadership; Intelligence; Unity of Effort; Appropriate Force Structures; Rule of Law; and Operational Clarity. The paper offers to test the applicability of these counter-insurgency best practices to the Northeast of India. For the purpose of the paper, counter-insurgency is defined as “those military, paramilitary, political, economic, psychological, and civic actions taken by a government to defeat an insurgency”.

• Primacy of political goals: It involves planning, preparation and execution of counter-insurgency within political framework. The role of the military in flushing out insurgents from certain areas is considered to be a supportive role. For instance, British, U.S. and Indian military forces have signified the importance of military. However, citing the cases of Mizoram and Assam, Dr. Goswami emphasises on the importance of political goals. In the paper, she has pointed out how the Mizo National Front (MNF) became a platform to express against the heavy response of the Indian military. It was during the strong political leadership of Pu Laldenga of MNF that the Mizo conflict was resolved in 1987 through staunch negotiations.
• Centre of gravity-population: Insurgent groups aim to persuade the population by utilizing the strategy of coercion and intimidation to generate support for their political cause. While countering these insurgency groups, the operation of the armed forces should be carried out in a civilian landscape, not in military camps, and the counter-insurgency forces need to know that such operations are people-centric operation. For this, there are certain practical ways of gaining support of the population, namely, having day to day contacts with the population, organising collective work, identify local cells of the insurgent, prevent too much movement, and finally provide security to the population. Besides this, there is also a need to gather information on three different types of population in any insurgency-affected areas, namely, minority support base for the insurgent; a passive neutral majority; and a minority which is against the insurgency. According to this paper, insurgency groups such as United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), and MNF have all garnered support from the people. But, over the period of time, support for these groups has dwindled down. Insurgency will continue unless security is guaranteed to the population in this region.
• Counter-propaganda: the insurgency groups intend to impose control over the population. These groups aim to win over the people by propagating their political cause, often by promising them better political empowerment, better economic status, better security etc. Such propaganda appears an easy task to the insurgency groups as they do not have to deliver any of those promised goals in the near term. However, countering such propaganda remains an arduous task for the counter-insurgency forces. For this, the strategy for counter-propaganda should be focused on exposing the weakness and false promises made by the insurgents. This strategy can only be materialized by ‘by obtaining the neutrality of the population, visible presence of counter-insurgent forces to provide security, establishing the authority of the state by providing basic needs, propaganda directed at insurgent rank and file, followed by an effective surrender policy’.
• Resolute leadership: In order to carry out a successful operation, the involved leader must possess a clear conceptual understanding of the mission. For this, he or she should have a thoughtful understanding of the nature of the problem. The leadership should exhibit ‘resoluteness, act in an ethical manner and always keep the national priorities and goals in clear perspective’. His or her leadership qualities should also be shown at all levels, and the leader should able to synchronise with various agencies with the aim of protecting the population and instilling in them a sense of security.
• Intelligence: This is one of the most important counter-insurgency measures. The absence of thorough and specific intelligence would only make the counter-insurgency operations ineffective. For this, the commander needs to form a sound intelligence network with the involvement of intelligent staffs possessing a ‘clear understanding of the operational environment, physical geography, the external influence, role of media and internet’. Means through which intelligence can be gathered are: lines of communication, belief systems, values, identity, culture, social norms, grievances, insurgent strength and vulnerabilities, safe havens, insurgent intelligence network, etc. Intelligence should be used to understand the root causes of the insurgency.
• Unity of effort: There needs to be an integrated approach in counter-insurgency. This involves ‘showcasing of administrative capacities, economic resources, propaganda, military superiority and the like’. Operations in such cases should be guided by a single strategic narrative that is visible across all lines of operation. This practice involves the coordination of political, social, economic and the military aspects of the counter-insurgency. The author specifies the roles of politicians, bureaucrats, army, police, local leaders, NGOs and media. A successful unity of effort can be achieved if there is a single command and coordination centre. Furthermore, civil-military relations are also important in this context.
• Appropriate ‘military’ force structures: It is important that the force is used to its minimum. This is because operations should aim to neutralise insurgents and not eliminate them. Also, minimum force should be used in order to reduce the fear that civilian population experiences due to the heavy presence of armed forces. The force structure should be able to respond to given context even though it is a small operation team.
• Rule of law: The counter-insurgent forces need to act according to certain accepted rule of law. Any operation in a given region should be within the framework of a legal mandate and conduct must meet the highest legal standards. With such rules, the involved forces can avoid any disproportionate use of force. This will not breed alienation amongst the civilians. Forces have to be briefed about the rules of engagement with regard to arrests, searches, warrants, interrogation techniques, intelligence gathering by issuing a Standard Operating Procedure. Acts such as Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act of 1958 amended in 1972 are perceived by the common people as neutralising their fundamental rights granted by the Indian Constitution. It is difficult to control population under distress and the state must offer its people ‘a good deal working within the rule of law’ in order to isolate the insurgents.
• Operational clarity: It is important to have clarity of purpose in any counter-insurgency operation. There has to be a unified command structure with only a single direction. The political aims should also be crystal clear. Further, the armed forces should clearly map the conflict zones. Involved forces must be clear about their allocated tasks, and short and long term targets. For all these, the most significant clarity is that the forces should be very clear that these operations must be people friendly ones. Challenges with reference to clarity of operations arise due to prevalence of multiple levels of decision makers in the insurgency-affected states like in the North East.

The author reemphasises in the conclusion that the aim of the insurgents is not to kill but spread parallel government to establish their own legitimacy. Hence, the aim of the counter-insurgency forces should be to root out these parallel structures of government.

Major Points of Discussion and Suggestions to the Author:

• There are dissimilarities among insurgencies but many general practices can be applied anywhere. There has to be no uniform approach to stages of insurgency rather different approaches to conflict.
• The success story of Sri Lanka where controlled empowerment of the security forces was utilized has to be referred.
• Proper identification of current stakeholders in engagement of counter-insurgency has to be taken into consideration.
• There has been a role of media and civil society but a larger involvement is required to have major impact on civilian population.
• The aspect of winning hearts and minds with more emphasis on the physical, psychological, social and economical factors has to be utilised for defeating insurgency. Attitude within the military has to change and it has to be reiterated that they are not just for kills. Home and heart battalion has to be engaged.
• Centre of Gravity as one of the best practices consist of both strengths and weaknesses be it physical, psychological, philosophical and ideological.
• It is difficult to define the best practice of resolute leadership where military leadership has been tenure based.
• There is a need to incorporate more technical intelligence and information operation in counter-insurgency measures.
• There has to be more operational clarity in the practices and continuity has to be maintained.
• If the mentioned features are best practices or best principles has to be reflected on again.
• Concession is the key to strategy and the hardcore best practice has to be to wean away support and the ultimate solution has to come from political front.
• Sealing of borders will be difficult to achieve instead the borders need to be secured.

Report prepared by Srishti Pukhrem, Research Assistant, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Leon E. Panetta, US Secretary for Defence

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