Events

A delegation of seven journalists from Maldives visited IDSA on 24 June 2013 and interacted with the scholars at the institute. The discussions were held in free and frank manner in an informal setting.

Among the issues the delegates raised were: (i) perceptions in Maldives about India restricting visas— including medical visas— for Maldivians, which is giving rise to anti-India sentiments; (ii) concerns about the social and strategic fallouts of growing Chinese engagement in Maldivian economy; (iii) the proposed status of force agreement between Maldives and the US, and India’s reactions to it; (iv) China’s role in SAARC; (v) concerns about polarized domestic political environment and the role that India can play to strengthen democracy in Maldives; and (vi) need for closer strategic dialogue and cooperation between India and Maldives. The meeting took place under Chatham House rules and it was presided by Director General, IDSA.

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A Round table conference on ‘South Asia: Prospects for Regional Co-operation’ was organised at IDSA on June 27, 2013. The Panellists included, Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General IDSA, Dr Rajiv Kumar, Senior Fellow, CPR,; Professor Mahendra Lama of South Asian Studies, SIS, JNU; Mr. Manish Chauhan Joint Secretary SAARC, Ministry of External Affairs; Dr Nitya Nanda, Senior Fellow, TERI; Dr Nisha Taneja, from ICRIER and Dr, Smruti Pattanaik from IDSA.

Following is the summary of the points highlighted by the panellists:

South Asia is a peculiar region. Prior to 1947 it was integrated and after the partition it got disintegrated and now it is once again trying to reintegrate. Today, South Asia is the least integrated region in the world. Since its inception, SAARC could not make much progress. It is still in the first phase of integration i.e. ‘market’ phase, whereas EU and ASEAN has already crossed the second phase and reached the third phase that is ‘functional’ phase. As far as form of integration is concerned, SAARC has not entered the ‘Free Trade Agreement’ category yet.

Panelists identified the following factors responsible for failure of SAARC in playing an effective role in regional integration:

1) Functioning of SAARC is hampered by Indo-Pak relations; 2) Fear of India’s size; 3) Difference of opinion within the region on the role of China; 4) Lack of Implementation, poor co-ordination and poor monitoring of integration projects. There exists a huge gap between summit declaration and action. SAARC has been consistently inconsistent to achieve goal.

However, despite of these drawbacks, there is ground for optimism. There is greater realisation now within the region about the need for co-operation. Fear of India is gradually declining and countries are now considering India’s economic growth as opportunity than threat. India’s bilateral relations with some countries like Bangladesh, Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan have become better and are expanding. Some of the positive aspects of SAARC are:

1. Establishment of South Asia University. Mandate is given to this university to create a critical mass of educated people;
2. Initiation of SAARC Development Fund;
3. Major progress in SAFTA in expanding trade.

Optimism was expressed on regional trade. It was argued that whatever trade is happening is comparatively high though less than the real potential, but, at the same time it was also argued that much can be achieved if some trade related non-tariff barrier and pruning of negative list are addressed. A large amount of trade is channeled through informal routes which is a major source of revenue loss for the states. Though informal trade is cheaper and easier than the formal trade, it should not be encouraged. It was mentioned that many goods are smuggled between India and Bangladesh which are not banned, precisely because of lack of border points. In this regard it was recommended that trade points with limited facilities can be provided to address this issue.

It was pointed out that cooperation needs involvement of many issues other than trade and commerce, such as ability of the policy makers to connect with the local people. Learning local language is extremely important. MEA’s role in this regard was questioned. Some of the panelists argued that South Asia is not a strategic concern for the government. Thus trade and economic relations often remain neglected. Countering this view, others have argued that South Asia has been very much a priority region for the MEA, but it has practical problem of resources both human and capital to concentrate on South Asia.

Role of India

There exists a mutual distrust between India and its neighbours on the issue of Regional integration. India has an ambivalent attitude towards regional co-operation. Therefore, it has always given priority to bilateral relations. However, panelists were of consensus that it is India’s responsibility to take a lead role in regional integration. India’s global ambition will not be realised until and unless stability in South Asia is achieved. As of now South Asia is not a strategic concern. India does not recognize that there are certain issues which cannot be resolved without regional co-operation. Concern was also raised that India does not deal with its neighbors on ground as is expected. While, at the bureaucrat level there is no leadership in dealing with issues of mutual concern in South Asia, at political level there is also a lack of political will.

Nonetheless, it was argued that even if India does not take steps to foster regional cooperation, countervailing forces will integrate the region. Some of the countervailing forces identified are: 1) China; 2) Climate Change and Disaster; 3) perceiving border as opportunities rather than as threat in traditional sense; and 4) Changing Federal structure of the country

Way Forward

1. Though Foreign Policy is Central Government’s mandate, states need to be involved as stakeholders. MEA can take up a liberal view on states in their neighbourhood policy. Nevertheless, it was accepted that probably incremental approach is the only way for India.
2. South Asia should be made a part of discussion and debate in the public domain.
3. South Asian integration has to be made an electoral issue. There is a need to integrate SAARC agenda to domestic agenda.
4. Emphasis should be given on multilateral integration.
5. There must be proper coordination within ministries of the region and the governments of the region.

General Discussion

Some of the points that came up during the discussion include:

• India’s credibility in the international forum gets affected due to its failure to take up lead role on the issue of regional integration. India needs to address the sensitivities of the neighbouring countries. India needs to be careful about its patronizing attitude.
• India is a factor in the domestic issues in the neighbouring countries. India has to make these countries dependent on it and therefore, India needs to think big. Despite following unitary model, China has given bordering states the power to take decisions on the issue of foreign policy relating to the neighbouring countries. Why can’t India give such power to its bordering states to take decision on the issue of trade? Focus should be on sub-regional co-operation. India needs to play significant role to redeem SAARC as an organization responsible for furthering regional cooperation.
• It is important to acknowledge the fact that China will continue to make its presence in the region. India needs to resolve its quandary of China. Trilateral co-operation involving India and China in the region has also been suggested. There are number of issues where both India and China can co-operate ignoring the differences.
• Trade and economy has to be the driving factor behind regional integration. There is a potential for trade within the region, but there is lack of political will to make them into reality. Primary spoiler is lack of common security perception. Focus should be given on the issue of soft security.
• Emphasis should be given on achieving a South Asian identity.
• China is one factor which will push regional integration.
• India’s unilateral action is accepted, but funding needs to be considered. Out of 9662 crores expenditure that was budgeted for the ministry of External Affairs -33% was used for technical and economic cooperation, 19% is on loan and investment in foreign countries and 19% is spent on MEA’s headquarters and missions. Given the budgetary constraints India is doing a tremendous job.
• Role of social media is immense to bridge the gap among countries of the region

Chairperson: Ambassador Arundhati Ghose
External Discussants: Professor Madhu Bhalla amd Professor Swaran Singh
Internal Discussants: Dr Rajiv Nayan and Ms Pranamita Baruah

A bilateral dialogue between IDSA and Institute for Defense Strategy (IDS) of Vietnam was held on May 16, 2013 at IDSA. The IDS delegation was headed by Lt Gen Nguyen Dinh Chien, Director General of the Institute for Defense Strategy. Dr Arvind Gupta, DG, IDSA, chaired the meeting which was also attended by IDSA scholars.

The main points that emerged from the discussion were as follows:

• Due to its strategic importance, the South China Sea issue has become one of the focus areas and has attracted the attention of the international community. Amongst the issues, the territorial dispute over the Spratly Islands is perceived as the most complicated issue.
• China’s maritime strategy roadmap consists of:
  • 2012-2020: Concentrating on restraining the escalation or outbreak of maritime issues; maintaining the status quo; accomplishing maritime mechanisms and regulations, formulating policies and laws in order to facilitate taking back islands and reefs.
  • 2021-2040: Using the national comprehensive strength, and seeking ways to resolve important maritime issues (like the East Sea) and realise the goal of becoming a regional maritime power.
  • 2041-2050: Comprehensive resolution of the maritime issue, fulfilling the dream of reunification of the country and becoming a world maritime power.
• China is rapidly modernizing its armed forces, especially its navy, by putting the first aircraft carrier and the new generation submarines into service; expanding naval base in Sanya and reinforcing the strength of the South Sea Fleet. China has been taking steps to assert its sovereignty in the area unilaterally demarcated by the so called “nine dotted line”, turning a non-disputed area into a disputed one. China has also provoked Southeast Asian countries and created partial conflicts in order to attract the public concerns and attracted the attention of international community.
• The reinforcement of military capability of China has raised anxiety levels among the countries in the region. In the last 20 years since 1992, China’s defence budget had increased 20 times, reached 670 billion RMB (US$ 106.4 billion). China’s PLA modernisation has compelled other countries to raise their defence budget, which may lead to an arms race in the region. For the South Sea Fleet, China has put some large destroyers equipped with new and advanced weapons into service; enhanced the training of naval air force personnel, including fielding the first aircraft carrier Liaoning. China has also planned to build more aircraft carriers, destroyers and missile frigates in order to realize its ambition of becoming a maritime power. Recently, China has intensified naval patrols in the East Sea within the “nine dotted line” in order to affirm China’s sovereignty at sea.
• It was emphasised that as a responsible power, India feels the South China Sea issue should be resolved amicably and Indian leaders have been supporting the idea of peaceful resolution of the dispute.
• India has substantial stakes in the South China Sea as Indian companies have invested in Vietnam’s oil and gas exploration ventures. For India, the prime objectives include safety of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and freedom of navigation.

(Report prepared by Dr. Rahul Mishra, Research Assistant, IDSA)