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Conference on "60th Anniversary of Panchsheel Relevance for India-China Relations" June 11, 2014 Conference

The East Asia Centre, IDSA, in collaboration with the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in New Delhi, organised a one-day conference titled “60th Anniversary of Panchsheel: Relevance for India-China Relations” on 11 June 2014. The conference had three sessions, besides the inaugural one. The Chinese delegation included former Chinese Ambassador to India, Mr. Zhou Gang, Professor Shen Dingli of the Fudan University, Mr. Ye Hailin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Prof. Chen Jidong from the Sichuan University and Prof. Deng Junbing of the Sundaya Consultancy of Association of Former Diplomats of China. The Welcome address was delivered by Dr Arvind Gupta, DG, IDSA, followed by the Keynote address by His Excellency Ambassador Mr Wei Wei. A Special Address was delivered by Shri Tarun Vijay, Honourable Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha. The Indian participants included former Indian Ambassador to China, Nalin Surie, former Ambassador R.S. Kalha, Prof. Sujit Dutta from the Jamia Millia Islamia University, Prof. Madhu Bhalla from the University of Delhi, Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli from the Jawaharlal Nehru University, Mr. Jayadeva Ranade from the National Security Advisory Board and Dr. Jagannath Panda, Research Fellow& Centre Coordinator, East Asia in IDSA.

Inaugural session

Welcoming the participants, the IDSA Director General, Dr. Arvind Gupta, underscored that the five principles of Panchsheel provide a basis for not only interstate relations but also the construction of a new international order. While the coming together of the two great civilisations led to great expectations, the warmth between the two countries was rather short-lived and the psychological scars of the 1962 war stayed on. The boundary issue continued to remain unsettled and constituted a major obstacle in the development of bilateral relations. The two counties had shown maturity in restoring their bilateral relations and had developed consensus concerning these relations.

India and China were sensitive to the emergence of new global and regional realties as the older world order gave way to a newer one. These changes had generated fresh challenges and also offered opportunities for the two countries to work together. India and China needed to cooperate if this century was to be the Asian century. In what ways could the two countries revive the spirit of Panchsheel and work together for their mutual benefit and for regional and global peace? How relevant was Panchsheel in today’s world characterised by globalisation, which cut across boundaries and intense mutual dependencies?

Delivering the keynote speech, the Chinese Ambassador to India, His Excellency Mr. Wei Wei traced the trajectory of Panchsheel and emphasised that its principles constituted the fundamentals of international law, which had contributed to peace, stability and development in Asia. The Panchsheel principles had inspired the methodology to handle the problems left over by history and to settle international disputes by peaceful means and provided a theoretical foundation for a more fair and reasonable international order. There was a need for multi-polarisation of the world and greater representation of developing countries in international affairs. The UN, G20, SCO, BRICS and other multinational regimes needed to get full scope for the role they played, with a view to make international governance more than just reasonable.

In today’s scenario, Panchsheel could be instrumental in guiding states in diplomacy. India and China needed to follow their independent foreign policies, uphold the spirit of non-alignment, work for a new international order and support equal sovereignty among all states, insisting that the right of all nations to choose their own social system and path of development should be respected and protected. India and China also needed to promote a new security concept featuring mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination. President Xi Jinping had in the recent Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) spoken about building common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security in Asia. While no country should impose its ideology or development model on the other, disputes among countries needed to be resolved through dialogue and consultation and not the use or threat of force. The BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) economic corridor was an example of implementing Panchsheel. China was willing to work on similar lines jointly with other countries for the greater benefit of the people of the region.

The speech of Joint Secretary, East Asia, Ministry of External Affairs, Mr Gautam Bambawale, was read out. Mr. Bambawale said that Panchsheel provided an alternative voice to the newly independent countries in Asia. Nehru and Zhou Enlai elaborated their vision of Panchsheel as the framework not only for India and China but also for relations with all other countries to lay a solid foundation for peace and security in the world. Panchsheel gave substance to the voice of the newly established countries who were seeking space to consolidate their hard-won independence as it provided an alternative ideology dedicated to peace and development of all as the basis for international interaction. India and China were celebrating the year 2014 as a year of friendly exchanges and their bilateral relationship had reached a stage where it could be consolidated and taken to the next level. The two countries maintained a good momentum of high-level contacts and exchanges and the intensity of their defence exchanges had deepened further. Expressing concern over trade imbalance in India-China economic relations, he called for greater Chinese investments in India, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, peace and tranquillity in the border regions was an important guarantor for development and continued growth of the bilateral relations. Both India and China needed to accommodate and be sensitive to each other’s concerns and aspirations and see each other as equal partners for development. They needed to focus on mutual complementarities to realise the untapped potential of this strategic and cooperative partnership.

Shri Tarun Vijay, the Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha delivered the Special Address. He pointed out that there never was a more opportune time to improve India-China relations. He added that Panchsheel in 2014 is viewed in a positive manner because of the tremendous changes in India-China relations. He underscored that ‘togetherness’ as a key in the bilateral relations and both countries explore solutions to our issues through negotiations. He congratulated the Chinese people for being warm and generous and noted that China has always displayed warm regards for India. Due to the established talks and bilateral mechanisms that India and China had peaceful relations despite ‘provocations’. While citing that the two countries have established strategic partnership and series of agreements to increase mutual trust, and increased people-to-people contacts, Shri Vijay argued that Li Keqiang’s visit to India in the year 2013 showed China’s focus on India. He urged to address the trade imbalance issue. He also noted that India and China have cooperated on the international front on G-20, BRICS and climate change. He said that friendly cooperation between India and China is key for regional stability. He argued that the key task for India and China is to develop their economies and eradicate poverty. Therefore, the Honourable MP recommended that confrontation should be replaced with cooperation and more media and youth exchanges should be considered. He said that India and China should increase mutual awareness of each other and India, in particular should understand China more. He raised the slogan ‘Go China, Learn Chinese’ for increasing getting information from China rather than Western media sources.

Session 1: India-China Relations: Historic Perspectives

Chair: Amb. R.S. Kalha
Speakers: Prof. Sujit Dutta, Prof. Madhu Bhalla, Prof. Shen Dingli

Prof. Dutta pointed out that though principles had a place in laying out a roadmap they had to be shaped by the dynamics of politics such as domestic and external factors. Three factors needed to be stressed in this context, namely, the nature of global politics, domestic politics and the role of ideology in bilateral relations, especially in the case of India and China.

There was an improvement in India-China relations after the death of Stalin, with the two countries willing to resolve the issue of Tibet. This led to the enunciation of the five principles and the agreement in 1954 with Tibet, which led India to have a new position on Tibet in order to build new ties with China. India figured that it would stabilise the bilateral relations. Though the five principles gave importance to the political requirements of safeguarding state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-aggression in a deeply ideologically torn world, the significant part of Panchsheel was peaceful coexistence. But conflict over the definition of peaceful coexistence led to conflict. Countries reacted positively to the post-Stalin definition of peaceful coexistence, followed by the successful visit of Soviet leaders to India. Peaceful coexistence became popular in the security-political context as Pakistan was in talks with the US for a defence agreement and had joined SEATO. The positive environment quickly decayed as the global and domestic political situation worsened. India-China relations were caught up in the worsening Sino-soviet relations.

Currently, the global conditions had changed and this had led to an improvement in India-China relations from being one-dimensional to multi-dimensional. There were many positive aspects in the relationship now because the conditions were different. However, to be relevant the principles of Panchsheel needed to be redefined in the prevailing context. Globalisation had redefined sovereignty, therefore there was a need for new institutions and global cooperation to look at the challenges posed by globalisation. Globalisation had also influenced domestic affairs and mutual gain was shaped by the nature of interdependence though it might not lead to mutual gains.

The principle of mutual non-aggression for peaceful settlement of contending issues and peaceful coexistence had become important in India-China relations. But the relationship was getting affected due to the worsening Japan-China and China-US relations, which was deeply worrying. Interdependence that focused only on economic affairs was not a security guarantee: the dynamics between China and the US were an example.

Prof. Shen Dingli in his turn opined that the five principles were not new but were present in the UN charter. Britain was a coloniser even when international law outlawed non-aggression. The five principles were part of the soft power of India, China and Myanmar. Responding to the points made by Prof. Dutta, Prof. Shen Dingli pointed out that China had indeed changed according to the new situation, by moves such as joining global institutions. In this scenario, even if countries had trade disputes with China, it was possible to resolve the issue at WTO and China was willing to subject its trade and investment sovereignty to a third party. China’s stance on the dispute regarding rare earth minerals was an example. China and other countries were willy-nilly making concessions in the new conditions. Other than this, there was no need to redefine the five principles.

China and India agreed on several international issues such as the wars in Iraq and Syria and the situation in Iran and Libya, underscoring respect for the five principles. This was because both countries were opposed to western-oriented power politics. India had consistently supported the legitimacy of the PRC even after the 1962 war, thus honouring the five principles. China had also applied the principles regarding sovereignty to international scenarios such as Vietnam, Philippines and Japan. In the case of Japan, that country did not have sovereignty over Senkaku, therefore China offered to discuss the dispute and eventually peacefully resolve the issue.

Despite their soft power, India and China were not always successful in resolving conflicts peacefully. The two countries needed to learn a lot from the past not to repeat mistakes. The two countries had made efforts to make the line of actual control tranquil and to sign border agreements, which was a smart policy move in terms of honouring the five principles. This could in turn be applied to the China-Japan dispute regarding the Diaoyu Island. India, China and Japan could also play an important role in Asia.

Prof. Madhu Bhalla, the next speaker, started with a question what was Panchsheel meant to do for India and China. The principles had served China better than India. There were two different readings of Panchsheel, two different senses of its functionality and different ideational values in the two countries’ foreign policies. At the functional level, Panchsheel did not work for India: the Tibet question was solved for China; but the issue of a peaceful border was not solved for India.

Panchsheel was supposed to be an antithesis for the traditional balance-of-power doctrine and competitive security. However, India and China had competitive security issues on the borders and these fell within the balance-of-power politics. Therefore, Panchsheel was an embarrassment and a failure for the Indian state. The claim for Panchsheel became ambitious later as it was considered as a way to have cooperative security and improve economic cooperation at the bilateral, regional and global levels. Panchsheel was actually a code of behaviour, but the rhetoric of value blurred the distinction between interests and values. Therefore, there was criticism that both countries had not defined the areas of cooperation.

Mao Zedong saw Panchsheel as a tool to solve the Tibet issue. Therefore, clarity about Panchsheel was more evident in the Chinese behaviour. The 18th border talks between India and China attested to the fact that the border issue was not resolving. Panchsheel was originally meant as a guide for bilateral relations, not for guiding foreign policy globally. The rhetoric about Panchsheel was devoid of meaning for India. If Panchsheel was to have a future in India-China relations, it had to be subjected to rigorous scrutiny against the demands of Indian foreign policy in the bilateral and global contexts.

The speakers in the first session addressed several questions and comments. Amb. R.S. Kalha pointed out that Panchsheel principles were found in the preamble in a trade agreement and questioned whether India and China had to find alternative principles as the trade agreement expired in eight years. Questions were asked of Prof. Shen regarding Xi Jinping’s reiteration of the five principles and whether it was a nuanced position and China’s policy in joint development in areas of disputed sovereignty. Prof. Shen responded that China adopted the five principles not to solve the Tibet issue only but to make countries stronger against the Western powers. This would lead to moral leadership, leading other states to agree with India and China’s reading of the UN charter leading to both functional and ideational purposes. Panchsheel was primarily used for settling disputes in a peaceful way and avoid using adversarial ways. It would take China some time to offer concessions on the border because it would take a long time to change the mindset.

Amb. Zhou Gang asserted that India and China should have a strategic will on the importance of peaceful principles in international relations because these had built a solid foundation for improving their bilateral relations and for resolving bilateral disputes. These principles had been accepted in the UN by both developed and developing countries. Dr. Arvind Gupta questioned why India could not take advantage of the five principles; whether it was a deliberate policy or India was unable to do so. Prof. Bhalla responded that in India there was disappointment because of the failure in India-China relations. The reason why India did not take Panchsheel more seriously was that India did not perceive it to have a broader role than in India-China relations.

Prof. Dutta pointed out that the use of the term Panchsheel was affected in a negative way because of the 1962 war. However, the general principles of Panchsheel were already relevant in the Indian foreign policy, as was evident in Nehru’s policy regarding the Cold War. Peaceful coexistence was important for India even before the Panchsheel agreement. India and China had similar concerns about sovereignty, with India, even though it was a democracy, being more circumspect about sovereignty than China.

Session II: India-China Cooperation in the Global Context

Chair: Amb. Nalin Surie
Speakers: Amb. (retd) Zhou Gang, Mr. Jayadeva Ranade, Prof. Deng Junbing, Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli

Amb. (retd) Zhou Gang said that ever since their first enunciation, the five principles had played a core role in shaping India-China relations. Leadership meetings, close contacts on global issues, exploring new areas of cooperation, people-to-people relations and expansion of military cooperation were some of the aspects of India-China friendship. Earlier, fewer leadership meetings, lack of political understanding and strategic trust had restrained the relationship between the two countries. Lack of resolution of the boundary dispute and the activities of the Dalai Lama and his group created a trust deficit in this relationship.

The primary task for India and China was to vigorously accelerate economic development and improve people’s lives. Economic reforms in both countries had led to great achievements. Both could learn from each other and create a win-win situation. Respecting each other’s core interests and properly handling the disputes would help the relations in the future. The recent consensus between the leadership of the two countries on cooperation was a good sign for the future. China and India shared a common interest in global multi-polarisation and diversification of order, besides climate debate and global commons. Close cooperation also would help increase the influence of emerging countries in the international order.

Mr. Jayadeva Ranade, who spoke next, pointed out that Panchsheel emerged out of the idea that peace and cooperation between India and China was important for their domestic development and as an alternative ideology for newly independent countries. The centrality of India and China for Panchsheel was that after their war in 1962, Panchsheel was ignored in the global order. The 1993, 1996 and 2005 agreements and the recent BDCA (Border Defence Cooperation Agreement) were at the core for the future of India-China relations.

From India’s point of view, the issues that derailed India-China relations were China’s claims on Arunachal and its military and nuclear help to Pakistan. From the Chinese view, the presence of the Dalai Lama in India was an irritant. Strong personalities of the top leaders in India and China could give a momentum to the bilateral relations. The recent Indian election was monitored closely by the Chinese media, which expressed positive expectations about the future. Cooperation on food security, water security and clean energy could deepen India-China relations and help them solve shared and common problems. Damming of the Brahmaputra by China added to India’s challenges vis-à-vis its relations with China.

Prof. Deng Junbing, the third speaker, noted that India was the first non-socialist country to have recognised the People’s Republic of China. The vitality of Panchsheel was in the fact that China and India had overcome the distrust created by the 1962 conflict and the Indian nuclear tests of 1998. The principles of Panchsheel had been important guiding principles of the Chinese foreign policy.

The current international situation was experiencing profound challenges. Efforts for creating peace without war, development without poverty and cooperation without confrontation would help build a shared harmonious world. The five principles could be part of the process of attaining these objectives. Hegemony, power politics and new interventionism were on the rise. The UN Charter could be used to promote new concepts of security. The five principles were useful for this purpose. China and India could work jointly for democratisation of the international order.

Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli, the fourth speaker, saw India-China global cooperation in terms of a mix of competition and cooperation. The two countries coordinated on UN discussions on security and interference although there was a slight difference of opinion between them. They also cooperated on terrorism as their definitions of this phenomenon were similar, even though there was some dichotomy. There was no substantial counterterrorism cooperation as yet. China tended to take a lenient view of some of the Jamat groups. The recent terrorist attacks in China could alter this position.

UNSC reforms were another important area. China welcomed a greater role for India in international affairs but did not support its UNSC permanent seat candidature directly. There was also cooperation in multilateral organisations. However, India had not been able to expand its role in the SCO as yet and China was only an observer in SAARC. There was some form of cooperation in WTO and in BASIC. On energy issues, there was a mixed picture of competition and cooperation. Third-country cooperation on investments had not materialised as yet. There was also serious disagreement on maritime, space and cyber issue areas.

In the ensuing discussion, it was pointed out that UNSC reforms were important because UNSC was the most universal body in world politics. Chinese support for India’s UNSC seat should not be seen as a benchmark for India-China cooperation. It was very difficult for China to support India’s UNSC candidature publicly. But there were ways in which the two countries could cooperate to strengthen the global system in coordination with likeminded countries. India-China relations did not have to be looked at in terms of media hype. Common interests needed to guide their cooperation.

On energy security, the two sides needed to take a broader view. They could take a shared look at the global energy order. UNCLOS also could be discussed. The two countries could coordinate against energy cartels that had a grip on pricing, but competition overtook cooperative tendencies.

On maritime issues, India supported freedom of navigation, demilitarisation and dispute settlement using multilateral frameworks. Indian scholars pointed out that China had taken inconsistent positions based on UNCLOS in the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea. The Chinese participants noted on the other hand that the Chinese position was based on the narrowness of the Yellow Sea. The differential interpretation was not deliberate. China would not militarise its EEZ in the South China Sea: it was not entitled to such privileges. The Indian participants in their turn pointed out that if ADIZ were to be extended to the South China Sea then even commercial ships might be subjected to scrutiny.

Session III: India- China relations in regional peace and stability

Chair: Prof. Shen Dingli
Speakers: Prof. Chen Jidong, Prof Ye Hailin, Dr. Jagannath Panda

Prof. Chen Jidong elaborated on how discourses on Sino-Indian relations are viewed from the prism of competition rather than cooperation. The world was big enough for both China and India and they did not need to always clash. In recent years, India-China cooperation had increased in the realm of economics. The BCIM corridor held great significance, not only bilaterally, but also regionally and globally as it would lead to economic prosperity in all four countries. India having a developed service sector and China having a developed manufacturing sector was like killing two birds with one stone. Both countries needed to deepen cooperation as BCIM would not only lead to regional integration and connectivity but also regional prosperity. The Kunming Initiative had been 14 years in the making and had passed through many hurdles. From being a Track II initiative, it had slowly graduated to a Track I initiative in 2011. BCIM was located at the periphery of these countries and it would lead to the development of the border regions, which had hitherto been neglected. The five principles of the Panchsheel Agreement were a precondition to the construction of BCIM and the participant countries needed to cooperate to further this project.

Prof. Ye Hailin echoed the sentiments of Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister who had recently visited India and had called India a “strategic and cooperative partner of China”. Asia was becoming increasingly nuclearized and countries needed to be extremely careful not to escalate tensions. Both India and China had a moral responsibility to secure the Asian community. Both were part of CICA, which sought to enhance cooperation between countries to build a stable and peaceful environment. Three main regional issues would shape India-China relations in the future, namely, regional integrity, cross-border regional development and maritime security.

Both India and China believed in regional institutions being sacrosanct. The fact that China was an observer state at SAARC and India was a part of ASEAN+6 would allow both states to share ideas and forge a common security concept. Regional linkages such as BCIM and the Silk Road economic belt were also important for fostering cooperation.

There was a lot of noise about China being a threat because of the Nine-dash line. However, it was important to note that Vietnam and Philippians too had demarcated huge territories claiming ownership on them. Confidence-building measures were important in managing the problem. For China, its Maritime Silk Road project was important for boosting maritime connectivity.

India and China were facing similar challenges and needed to cooperate to tackle them. China needed India’s help in tackling security challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan as growing extremism in both countries was a major challenge. Myanmar was another example where India and China could work together. There was a lot of room for trilateral dialogue to find answers to key security challenges both countries faced. Prof. Ye Hailin also tried to clear the air on various issues such as String of Pearls, Chinese funding of Gwadar Port and the China threat theory.

Dr. Jagannath Panda in his turn noted that the contributions of Panchsheel were universal, as its values were replicated in the charter of UN, SCO, ASEAN and SAARC. There were two sides to Panchsheel: one was the emotional and ideological aspect and the other was the practical aspect. The realities of today were very different from the ones faced by leaders such as Nehru and Zhou Enlai. Both Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, towering leaders in their own right, faced a completely different set of challenges. The 1962 war was not about the question of sovereignty but about lack of respect for each other’s territorial integrity. The lingering boundary issue was not about technicalities but was about highly politicised sentiments of nationalism. As regards non-aggression, the real aggression took place not in actions but in perceptions. There was a great deal of hostility, distrust and suspicion on both sides, which had been played up by the media. This issue needed to be tackled at the highest levels. As regards the third principle, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, both China and India had interfered in the other’s internal issues at some point in history.

China was undergoing a slow democratisation process and the reforms that were underway were a result of this process. Both nations defined democracy very differently and this issue needed to be brought to the table in solving the issues of the boundary and Tibet.

As regards the fourth principle of Panchsheel, which is that of equality and mutual benefit, both India and China, other than being the third- and second-largest economies of the world, were vast territorially. They could not mutually benefit and integrate regionally if they did not give space to each other. India needed to give space to China in the Indian Ocean and China to India in the South China Sea.

Regarding the principle of peaceful coexistence, there was a duality in the Chinese position. On the one hand, it talked about creating a new type of major power relation and saw itself as equal to the US, while also talking about being a developing country and still having a lot of catching up to do. India needed to ask China to clarify whether it viewed this world as multipolar or bipolar.

With the session ending, S.D. Muni questioned the panel as to the reasons for the slow pace of BCIM and why China fished in troubled waters whenever India faced bilateral tensions with its neighbours. R.N. Das questioned the panel on stapled visas being issued in Arunachal. On the whole, the session was fruitful and yielded many important insights about the future scope of India-China relations.

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East Asia
Visit of the Tanzanian National Defence College Delegation June 11, 2014 Round Table

A nineteen member delegation from the Tanzanian National Defence College visited the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) on June 11, 2014. The Africa, Latin America & UN Centre at the institute organised an interactive session with them. The visiting delegation, headed by Maj Gen Festo Ndewiro Ulomi (Retd), was briefed about the internal security system of India and India’s Engagement with Africa, followed by queries and discussion. The members of the delegation expressed their keen interest in the security dynamics of India and the lines India is engaged with Africa, particularly Tanzania.

The IDSA team comprised Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd), Ms Ruchita Beri, and Cdr. Abhijit Singh. The team briefed the delegation about India’s security system and its relationship with the immediate neighbourhood and the rest of the world with a focus on India’s challenges and responses to the current scenario.

India’s general security scenario

India shares a healthy relationship with most of the countries across the globe, for which it is seen as a benign nation in the international arena. The increasing threat of terrorism and disturbing repercussions of the Arab Spring are seen as huge challenges for the world and majorly for India as it has been the focal point of terrorist activities. Besides dangers of terrorism, Naxalite-Maoist insurgencies and the spread of internal violence in the realm of internal security, the issues of extreme poverty and unemployment among large sections of the Indian society are observed as major concerns for the whole nation.

Following the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the relationship between India and China has been characterised by border disputes, arms race on the one hand and growing trade, cultural and diplomatic ties on the other. Meanwhile, India has been vigilant about China’s strong support to Pakistan and China’s hostile behaviour with Vietnam and Taiwan.

Despite shared cultural trends and geographical features, the viewpoints of India and Pakistan are different in terms of global vision and perspectives. In spite of the confidence building measures (CBMs) taken between India and Pakistan, a fatigue has developed between the two countries due to the persisting problem of Jihadi elements being used by Pakistan for meeting its strategic ends. India feels that the best way both the nations can grow is by developing healthy bilateral relationship.
India showcases good relations with the SAARC countries, being a contributor for economic and other assistance. The foreign policy of India, based on the principles of Non-Alignment, has made India an amicable nation which has been reciprocal to the countries in need, providing them with expertise and help. India has also been a major supporter of the democratisation process in South Asia but never intends to ‘export’ it.

India has been a huge investor in Afghanistan in terms of contributing to develop infrastructure and setting up NGOs working towards capacity-building among the people. At the same time, Iran has also been very important due to its significant presence in the geopolitical arena and for future strategic interests. Trade relations between India and West Asia are of remarkable importance, as India has been engaged in high level interactions with the West Asian countries, particularly UAE. However, the oil-rich West Asian region affects India in terms of energy security which is an alarming issue for the country.

The Look East Policy, strong cultural linkages and the exuberant development of trade between India and Southeast Asia have all been positive facets of India’s relations with the Southeast Asian countries.

Looking at the long on-going friendship between Russia and India, there are no security challenges that both the nations face from one another. Russia has always been a major supporter of India due to commonality of issues and circumstances, in spite of minor differences with regard to non-agreement on certain issues.

Indo-US relations are based on the common virtues of liberalism, democracy, equality and other fundamental principles. Starting from the British colonial times in India, the relationship between the two countries has been a strategic partnership at a multilateral level, ranging from the Nuclear Agreement to US being supportive of India on many world fora.
The new issues of prime importance for the Indian security system are water scarcity, climate change and cyber & space security.

Maritime Security Environment

Three paramount realities have emerged in the maritime framework. First, the shift of economic power from the West to East affects the maritime security environment. Second, the governance mechanisms and effective methods for safeguarding the Indian Ocean Region are of high priority while addressing the challenges faced in the maritime realm; exerting increased pressure on defence budgets of the powers in the region. Third, the Indian Ocean littoral states are claiming higher status in the region.
Apart from coastal security, the emerging new challenges are human trafficking and drug trade that need attention. The “Maritime Silk Route” model of China can be viewed, in the long run, as a strategy to establish its military presence in region. The legality of the issues of repeated violent attacks on fishermen and floating armouries have to be looked into more attentively. Lastly, joint-naval exercises, maritime agreements, trade and energy cooperation are all positive features in the maritime domain. Alongside, the future prospects of Indo-Africa maritime partnership can be seen if Africa is provided with higher assistance and aid for development.

India’s engagement with Africa

India’s engagement with Africa is unique and is based on mutual cooperation. Three levels of the engagement process can be chalked out:

  • Bilateral relationship, dating back to the ancient times, wherein India established its trade relations with Africa long back and has been developing partnership on common grounds of economic cooperation and struggle against colonialism, poverty, illiteracy and other societal problems.
  • At the regional level, a number of dialogues and interactions on a wide range of issues have been taking place from time to time.
  • Pan-African cooperation, through the India Africa Forum summit process that began in 2008.

India’s optimistic approach and engagement based on mutual consensus indicate a strong partnership at all the three levels. India views that Africa is one of the fastest growing continent, consisting of rich manpower and fast-developing economies. Beyond trade and investment, India’s partnership with Africa has developed in terms of training, technological advancement and knowledge sharing. The engagement is not limited only to the energy sector; another important aspect is the growth of Indian investment in telecommunication and infrastructure in Africa. India’s emphasis on skill enhancement and increase in human resources by way of providing training in the areas of IT and defence, amongst others, is of utmost importance in order to strengthen the Indo-African partnership. Here an important Indian initiative is the Pan-African e network that provides tele medicine and tele education to various countries across the African continent. Similarly India has also launched an initiative to support the African efforts in developing institutions that will enhance the skills and capacities of the people in the region. In recent years, India has pledged to develop a strong partnership with Africa and has offered to share its own development experience with these countries.
While India and Africa continue to share strong relations, certain challenges and concerns remain. Political instability and continued conflicts in Sudan, Mali and rise of terrorism in Nigeria and Somalia are issues of concern. From the Tanzanian perspective India has always been a close friend of Africa, however in recent years, other external powers such as China have adopted aggressive strategies to develop closer cooperation with Africa. African countries hope that India speeds up the delivery of its development assistance to the continent.

Major points raised during discussion:

  • Indo-Pak relations, the current state of conflict and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
  • The nuclear potentiality between India and Pakistan.
  • Issues of military modernisation.
  • Is the growth of the Chinese maritime forces a challenge for India?
  • India’s participation and engagement in Africa with regard to peacekeeping.
  • India’s prospects for becoming a permanent member of the UNSC.
  • India as a member of BRICS grouping.
  • The nature of India-China relations with regard to the maritime engagement and challenges faced by the prevalence of China.
  • The difference between Indian and Chinese engagements with Tanzania.
  • India’s efforts and strategies in terms of cultural intervention.

(Report prepared by Smriti Rajan, Research Intern, IDSA, New Delhi)

Talk by Lt Gen V K Ahluwalia (Retd.) on "Future of the Naxalite Movement" June 05, 2014 Other

Chair: Dr Arvind Gupta

Lt Gen (Retd.)V K Ahluwalia gave a presentation on “Future of the Naxalite Movement”, at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), on June 5, 2014. Lt Gen Ahluwalia is the author of the book “Red Revolution 2020 and Beyond: Strategic Challenges to Resolve Naxalism”.
He is presently, Member, Armed Forces Tribunal (AFT), Jaipur Bench, and has earlier served as General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Central Command, from 2010 to 2012.

Historical Perspective

Tracing the origins of the Naxalite movement, Lt Gen Ahluwalia said the Naxalite movement is a grass-root movement that traces its origin in the tribal uprisings against social discrimination, economic exploitation and injustices in pre-independence period. The General mentioned that such socio-economic unrest and discrimination manifested themselves in the form of the Indigo Revolt (1859-1861), Munda Rebellion (1899) in Chaibasa and Chota Nagpur region, Bhumkal Rebellion (1910), the Tebhaga Movement (1946) in undivided Bengal and Telangana Armed Struggle (1946-1951), etc. However, such revolts and rebellions remained sporadic and were primarily directed against feudal land lords and colonial masters of India.

Mapping the evolution of the movement since it gained momentum in 1967

Lt Gen. Ahluwalia said that the Naxal movement has passed through various stages of operation. There was a sharp rise in Naxalite violence from 1967 to 1971, followed by a sharp decline from 1971-1980 due to stepped-up government operations against various Naxals groups, which was followed by a phase of negotiation and dialogue between the splintered groups. Learning from past experiences, various Naxalite groups sought to gain critical mass and strength, and this led to the merger of a large number of Naxalite groups as witnessed from 1980 to 2004. Eventually in 2004, the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist (Peoples War) and Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCCI) amalgamated to form the unified and more lethal Communist Party of India (Maoist). With this started the Maoist phase in the history of Naxalite Movement in India which continues till date.

Ground Realities

While discussing the ground realities prevailing in most of the Naxal-affected areas, Lt Gen Ahluwalia asserted that these areas are among the poorest, the remotest and the most backward areas in the country.

Displacement due to large-scale mining and other projects is yet another reality being largely faced by the tribal communities in Naxalite-affected regions. It is important to note that the tribal populace accounts for 8.2 % (100 million) of India’s overall population and is the worst-hit by displacement, particularly in the Naxal- affected areas. The speaker argued that while the acquisition of land is important to undertake development projects there is an urgent need for social audit to ensure that those who are displaced are fully compensated, resettled and rehabilitated. The speaker agreed that while there are various governmental schemes to accommodate the displaced populace, the lack of political and administrative will has led to an aggravation of the socio-economic conflict that afflicts such regions.

The Naxal-affected states account for 40 to 45% of the total forest cover of India. The livelihood of tribals inhabiting these areas is mainly dependent on land and forest products, but is largely threatened by mining and other projects. Also, the same regions account for the largest reserves of mineral wealth like coal, bauxite and iron ore. It is worth-mentioning here that about 85 to 90 % of India’s coal and iron ore reserves are found in the states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha.

The Naxal-affected areas also do not have any meaningful cash crops as compared to other parts of the country. Resultantly, as they are also not getting adequate amount of compensation for the same, they have turned to cultivation and trade in opium and cannabis. Moreover, these states also account for the Human Development Index (HDI) running much below the national average with high levels of poverty, high mortality rate and low literacy rate (literacy rate among the tribals is 47 %, which is well below the national average of 65 %). Medical facilities require tremendous –– these are almost non-existent in the critically-affected areas. Most of the Naxal-affected regions lack electrification and road connectivity which, according to Lt Gen Ahluwalia, can actually act as a major socio-economic multiplier. He gave specific statistics of electrification and road connectivity in the critically-affected areas.

Strategic Areas of CPI (Maoist)

Highlighting some of the major Naxal attacks that took place since 2001, Lt. Gen Ahluwalia termed the period from 2009 and 2010 as the “bloodiest years” of the Naxalite movement so far. According to the speaker, the CPI (Maoist) has identified a few strategic areas of interest to carry forward the movemen:

  • Huge plans to target the industrial and urban belts of India. Specific targeted areas were shown on a map;
  • Making inroads in the North-East India;
  • Venture into NCR and northern India; and
  • An endeavor to bridge the strategic gap that lies in between the northern (erstwhile MCCI) and the southern group (erstwhile CPI M-L People War).

External Linkages

The Naxalites have established linkages with many other groups within and outside India to sustain their movement. The CPI (Maoist) has established links with militant groups of the northeast like PLA of Manipur, ULFA, and NSCN (IM) and anti-India terror groups based in Pakistan. It also has some links with umbrella organisations like Coordination Committee of Maoist Parties and Organisations of South Asia (CCOMPOSA) formed in July 2001 and Friends of Indian Revolution (FOIR), etc. The major drivers for establishing such linkages are funding, arms and ammunition, training facilities, safe sanctuaries, drugs, propaganda and ideology etc. The speaker brought out the main sources of arms supply in the earlier and current phase of Maoists' operations. The NE arms supply route was also illustrated with a Map.

In the wake of growing linkages, Lt Gen Ahluwalia affirmed that there is an urgent need to cut off the tangible support to restrict the Maoist insurgency from flourishing. He gave examples of successful counter-insurgency campaigns (different countries) and their main strategy to resolve the conflict. Each country had a different centre of gravity and hence required a separate strategy to succeed, which was evident from the successful campaigns he quoted.

The Way Forward

According to the speaker, a ‘one size fits all’ solution cannot be applied to all the Naxal-affected areas. There is an urgent need to divide the affected areas into critically-affected, moderately-affected, and potential/vulnerable areas; and devise different solutions as per sub-regional requirements. In critically-affected areas, security holds the key to success, while in the latter categories, region-based customized solution should be undertaken by the government.

When does an insurgency tend to end?

Lt Gen. Ahluwalia claims that Naxalite movement is likely to end under the following two conditions:

  • When the rebels feel that no matter how long they prolong, they cannot succeed. Or when they realise that the cost - in terms of casualties, arms, ammunition, training facilities, maintenance and funds - of continuing the campaign will be much more than ending it.
  • Belief of the people that Governments - both at the centre and states- are becoming reasonably effective to address their grievances (human security, socio-economic, political aspirations etc.) in a suitable time frame.
  • In a country like India, the Speaker emphasised that it is almost impossible for any insurgency to succeed. But, the moot point is how long will it take to manage / resolve the conflict? This has prolonged for too long due to a number of reasons. He gave examples of time taken to manage / resolve the conflict by a "Good, Moderately Effective and a Weak Government." (This aspect generated a good discussion among the participants).

What needs to be addressed?

The two important factors that should be addressed on priority are:

  • Security forces need to create a secure environment to facilitate development of the region.
  • The root causes of the insurgency should be addressed in a holistic manner. To do so, the government needs to be on the ground to know the ground realities.
  • These two actions will automatically start building the trust among the local population.

Lt Gen Ahluwalia argued that Governance is the basic wheel around which all the aspects revolve. In order to counter the Naxal challenge, there needs to be:

  • A Strong Political Will - India needs to have a grand strategy at the national level to counter the Naxal challenge. The strategy must take into consideration the various aspects like political, social, economic, psychological, environment, cultural, civil actions, law enforcement etc. There should be an apex body dealing with Naxal problem. He also broadly spelt out the role of each element of national power, something that remains largely unaddressed in a comprehensive manner. The illustrations were interesting as the aim was to achieve short-term to long-term objectives.
  • Good Centre-State Synergy among the Naxal-affected states is a must to deal with the Naxal problem holistically. Because the implementation on the ground would primarily be achieved by the states.
  • In addition, the General spelt out the main hurdles to resolve the conflict, due to which the progress on the ground has been sluggish.

Difficulties experienced by the Maoists

Lt. Gen Ahluwalia believes that there has surely been a decline in violence by the Naxalites since 2010. The credit for the same must also go to the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). He showed the statistics on a graph, and highlighted the main areas that merit focus in the future. He briefly explained, with statistics, the following difficulties being faced by the Maoists to further spread and strengthen their movement : leadership crisis, splintering of party into sub - groups, loss of support in traditional strongholds, lack of volunteers for fresh recruitment, lack of adequate support in urban areas, progressive dilution of ideology and improved counter - operation techniques of the counter - insurgents.

Game Changers

Lt Gen Ahluwalia discussed some of the game changers to achieve short term tangible results on the ground, both from the security and governance point of view. He was unequivocal to suggest that we have to critically analyse each region and sub- region separately to formulate a workable plan. While the national strategy could cover broad contours, regional strategies are far more important to win the campaign at the national level. The General gave a few examples that would require an early attention of the stake holders. Considering the current stage of the insurgency, the government has not paid much attention to perception management. To combat an insurgency, action plan has to be dynamic - he supported his argument with examples of the states where the incidents, violence and killings have increased / decreased over the last few years.

Concluding his presentation, Lt. Gen. Ahluwalia, while visualising the future of the Naxalite movement in India, said that we have to analyse this aspect by dividing this period into two distinct parts:

  • Period 2014 to 2020,
  • Period 2020 and beyond

While crystal gazing into the future, he discussed at length various factors such as the enabling environment, success of delivery mechanism on the ground and their impact on the Maoists' movement. These would have a direct impact on the future of the Maoists movement. He listed out various options that would be available to the Maoists between the two distinct phases, based on the results achieved / not achieved by the present government. Given our past record of implementation, he felt that results ( good governance and delivery mechanism ) could range from 'moderate plus to moderate minus'. He discussed in detail the likely course of action of the Maoists, with specific examples of regions / sub- regions of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha that may remain affected much beyond 2020. The worst case scenario would be if we allow them to broaden their mass base, bridge the strategic gap, establish linkages and support from different militant organizations, and to emerge stronger in the future. He said that a study of these options should help us to prepare ourselves better for the future. He, however, briefly spelt out certain methodologies to improve the security environment and to achieve better delivery on the ground. Besides the Naxals strength, their activities and local support, physiographic of the region and human terrain map cannot be ignored while planning security operations.

Significant points which emerged during the discussion

  • The already existing tribal legislations and socio- economic projects must be implemented on the ground at the earliest.
  • Opportunities for employment especially in Naxal - affected areas must be created as these will wean the youth from getting involved in Maoist’ activities.
  • CAPF have produced fairly good results in the last four years. Better synergy among the CAPF and the state police, unity of command, human intelligence and coordination among various agencies would help to produce better results.
  • Economic integration of Naxal - affected regions with the rest of India must be the priority of the Government.
  • Basic infrastructure projects that need to be undertaken on war footing in Naxalite - affected areas.
  • States have to play a major role because they are the one who have to deliver on the ground.
  • Sympathy/support from the intellectuals for the Maoist’ cause is likely to continue in the immediate future. The large number of Maoist’ front - organisations which are propagating the Naxal / Maoist ideology and the cause, need to be monitored. Some of the issues raised by them are justified. The government should take a note of them.

Report prepared by Ms. Rajbala Rana

Terrorism & Internal Security
Conference on "60th Anniversary of Panchsheel Relevance for India-China Relations" June 11, 2014 Conference

The year 2014 marks the 60th anniversary of Panchsheel. To discuss the relevance of Panchsheel in India-China relations, the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in collaboration with the Chinese Embassy, New Delhi is organizing one-day conference titled “60th Anniversary of Panchsheel: Relevance for India-China Relations” on June 11 (Wednesday), 2014. The aim of the conference is to assess and review the relevance of Panchsheel in Sino-Indian Relations and draw its scope for regional and global cooperation and interactions. This one-day conference is divided into three main themes: (1) Sino-Indian Relations: Historical Perspectives; (2) Sino-Indian Relations in global Context; and (3) Significance of Sino-Indian Relations for Regional Peace and Stability.

For More Details [+]

East Asia
Changing Geopolitics of Gas: Implications for India June 06, 2014 Shebonti Ray Dadwal 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar Non-Traditional Security
Significance of Border Trade in India's Border Management June 20, 2014 Pushpita Das 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar Terrorism & Internal Security
BCIM and India-China Sub-Regional Interaction: Will Economic Interdependence prevail over Security Syndrome? June 20, 2014 Jagannath P. Panda 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar East Asia
Peacekeeping and Peace-building: Indian Engagements June 13, 2014 Arpita Anant 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN
US Congress and the Iran Nuclear Issue June 27, 2014 S. Samuel C. Rajiv Fellows' Seminar

Chair: Amb. K.C. Singh
Discussants: Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra, Dr. G. Balachandran and Shebonti Ray Dadwal

The paper examined the role of the US Congress vis-à-vis the Iran nuclear issue during the time period of the Obama administration. The paper began with an overview of the Executive-Congressional measures targeting Iran during the Clinton and the Bush administrations. The author noted that there have been 10 statutes/public laws and 26 Executive Orders (EO) targeting Iran since 1979.

A ‘State of Emergency’ was declared by Clinton in March 1995, which has been renewed every year since, most recently on March 12, 2014. The Clinton administration passed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) in 1996, which became the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) in 2006 when Libya was removed from its purview. The ILSA/ISA was a prime example of ‘secondary sanctions’ targeting companies from other countries for their involvement in Iran’s petro-chemical sector.

Despite Clinton passing ILSA however, it was the Obama administration which used ILSA/ISA provisions for the first time in September 2010 to sanctions a Swiss-based company. An important reason for US administrations not using such authorities was their reluctance to target energy companies belonging to allies like Japan and Europe. Prior to Obama, no authorities existed that targeted crucial financial institutions like the Central Bank of Iran or to curtail Iran’s oil revenues.

The Obama administration’s initial policy approach towards Iran has been characterised as ‘engagement’ or ’persuasion’ given that it included the threat of further sanctions if Iran did not respond to its ‘overtures’. Critics instead termed it ‘free-pass engagement’ as according to them the Iranian response was not encouraging. While following the policy of ‘engagement’, the Obama administration put its weight behind UNSC efforts to pressure Iran. Critics however termed the UNSC measures as being ‘too weak’.

There was broad bi-partisan support for Obama’s initial policy framework of ‘engagement’ in the US Congress. Pressure began to build up for a change in policy in the aftermath of the June 2009 electoral violence, the disclosure on the Fordow enrichment facility in September 2009, the failure of the October 2009 offer from the Vienna Group (US, Russia, France, IAEA) and concerns generated by the quarterly reports of the IAEA DG to the Board of Governors detailing the increase in Iran’s enrichment material and infrastructure.

The paper then went on to give pertinent aspects relating to key sanctions legislations and EO’s passed by the Obama administration. These included the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions and Divestment Act (CISADA), signed into law by Obama on July 1, 2010. US officials have credited CISADA for major energy traders stopping the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran. Section 1245 of the National Defence Authorisation Act 2012 (NDAA, signed into law on December 31, 2011) mandated sanctions on foreign central banks if they ‘engage in a financial transaction for the sale or purchase of petroleum or petroleum products to or from Iran’. Exemptions were to be provided if these countries ‘significantly reduced’ their crude oil purchases from Iran. 20 countries got such exemptions by June 2012. By November 2013, when the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) was signed, only six countries were importing Iranian oil. These were China, India, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Turkey.

Among the significant provisions of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act (ITRSHRA), which entered into force on February 6, 2013, was Section 504 expanding sanctions under Section 1245 of NDAA 2012. It led to the creation of ‘escrow’ accounts in countries importing Iranian oil and severely curtailed Iran’s foreign exchange earnings. The Iran Freedom and Counter-proliferation Act (IFCA) of 2012 targeted Iran’s shipping and ship building sectors as well apart from its energy sector.

The Obama administration passed 9 EO’s as well as used authorities present in Iran-related EO’s passed by previous administrations (numbering 17 from 1979 to 1997) as well as functional EO’s relating to terrorism (2001) and WMD proliferation (2005) to target Iran. More than 500 entities and individuals have been designated under the terms of these Executive-Congressional authorities.

The paper went on to note that the response to the JPOA has clearly been on partisan lines in the US Congress. The paper noted the pending Iran-related legislation as well as Obama administration’s response to these measures while continuing to bring new sanctions designations based on extant sanctions provisions. The paper closed by briefly pointing to the impact on India as a result of US sanctions, including designations under the INA on three chemical companies and two individuals during 2004-2006 (which were subsequently not renewed), the pressure brought on US EXIM Bank by members of the US Congress in late 2008 to stop its provision of loan guarantees to Reliance which resulted in the company stopping the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran as well as the impact of legislations like Section 1245 of NDAA 2012 which led to India reducing its crude oil imports from Iran.

Discussants’ View

Professor Chintamani Mahapatra congratulated the author and appreciated the commendable effort made to distil various aspects relating to US Executive-Congressional actions on the Iran nuclear issue. He suggested that the content relating to pertinent legislations could be presented in a more reader-friendly manner. He advised the author to examine the linkages between the laws passed and the politics driving the process, specifically the impact of lobby groups in shaping US Congressional actions as well as administration policies. Further, the impact of the sanctions on the Iranians could be explored, as well as the tensions between the US and its allies in the framing and passing of the laws, some aspects of which were covered by the author. He pointed out that the US Congress was not a unitary actor, and that a huge range of factors was at play in how it works, including lobby groups, various committees among other pertinent issues.

Dr. G. Balachandran suggested that a list of acronyms could be incorporated as well as a table indicating the significant sanctions provisions and their use to help improve readability. He also suggested that the author could explore issues such as the extent to which the threat of veto by Obama against new sanctions legislations in the post-JPOA period would be effective given that there has been near unanimity in the US Congress in passing strict legislations against Iran, as has been delineated by the author. Further issues that could be explored were the possible policy options for the US and EU if diplomacy failed and possible contours of an agreement between Iran and the P5+1.

Shebonti Dadwal suggested that more analytical heft could be added to the paper on aspects relating to the efficacy of sanctions, the possible linkages between issues like US shale gas revolution and Iran-related Congressional actions, the impact on Iran was well as domestic Iranian reactions to US sanctions measures and whether and how the sanctions have varied across administrations.

The Chair urged the author to situate the paper in the broader regional context, critically look at the debate and divergence if any between the legislative and executive arms of the US government as well as the dynamics between the Republicans and the Democrats affecting Congressional actions. Discussions from the floor related to the impact of regional dynamics like the advance of the ISIS in Iraq and its effect on the Iran nuclear negotiations, the linkages between the US sanctions and their impact on the trans-Atlantic alliance, and the role of lobby groups in shaping US Congressional actions as well as US foreign policy as it pertained to the region.

Report prepared by Aniruddh Mohan, Research Intern, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, IDSA

Nuclear and Arms Control
Sectarianism, Arab Spring and Saudi Foreign Policy May 30, 2014 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar Eurasia & West Asia

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