EVENTS

You are here

Events

Title	Date	Author	Time	Event	Body	Research Area	Topics	File attachments	Image
Discussion on Ms Gaurie Dwivedi’s Book : Blinkers Off: How Will the World Counter China	December 15, 2021			Other	The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi organised a discussion on the book Blinkers Off: How Will the World Counter China, authored by Ms Gaurie Dwivedi, on 15 December 2021. Conducted in an online format, the book discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and was attended by Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and members of the Institute’s East Asia Centre, who participated as discussants. Summary: China’s constant aggressive foreign policy behaviour has taken the blinkers off its so-called peaceful rise, which is anything but peaceful. In this context, Gaurie Dwivedi’s book raises a pressing question: How will the world counter China? The author argues that just as contemporary engagement with China is multifaceted, likewise containment techniques too will have to be multi-pronged. In an engaging discussion, the author and the MP-IDSA scholars and members deliberated on different aspects of Chinese politics, foreign policy and ways to manage China’s rise. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy stated that the fractiousness of the geopolitical and geostrategic characteristics of the international situation suggests that it is a glove off moment. Further, the aggression demonstrated by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on multiple occasions has shattered the notion that China can do no wrong and has taken off the blinkers from the world’s eyes. Referring to China’s White Paper titled “China: Democracy That Works”, Ambassador Chinoy contended that China is actively trying to demonstrate that the authoritarian system of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a manifestation of the highest form of democracy, which the West has not really experienced. Moreover, the brazenness with which China is upholding its perception of democracy (a select group of people deciding the fate of the rest) exhibits their confidence in their narrative. He observed that the international community is descending into a situation where the trouble is not only with regard to trade, technology and territorial disputes but also with regard to tenets. The discourse now is about who practices a better model of economic and political governance. Commending the book, Ambassador Chinoy observed that it is an intensely readable book and will be highly useful to even a layperson interested in China. In a few crisp chapters, the book has highlighted all the key issues and gives an extensive overview of where the international community stands today vis-à-vis China. Speaking about the book, the author, Ms Gaurie Dwivedi, stated that the book fills an important gap in the literature on how China is viewed, and more importantly how policymakers view China. She contended that there are a lot of detailed scholarly works on China and on the history of India–China relations, however, there is a need to view China differently in the 21st century. As the book is future-driven and forward-looking, it does not mention much about the history of India–China engagement. Explaining the rationale behind the title of the book, the author stated that the book urges the policymakers to understand that countering China with a commensurate amount of military power is a uni-dimensional view and that it will not be enough. Blinkers Off suggests that the readers understand the significance of having a multi-pronged containment strategy as China can weaponise the different avenues of engagement like trade, technology and information, in an event of a conflict. Referring to Beijing’s use of social media to demonise democratically elected governments and to manipulate institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the author stated that the book attempts to initiate a discussion on these issues and also ways to respond to Chinese onslaughts. Also, the need to have a holistic and 360 degrees perspective about dealing with China. Ms Dwivedi underscored some of the important questions addressed in the book, for instance, how China quickly rose to power and the popular narrative surrounding China’s rise and why it matters to the world. Elaborating on these questions, she contended that remnants of the Cold War played an important role in the United States’ (US) decision to choose the Chinese market for investment, which in turn played a major role in China’s initial economic growth. Further, since China is now economically powerful enough to infiltrate into the political fabric of any country, dictate terms of trade and influence global governance, China’s rise, therefore, matters to every country. The author further opined that in a few years, as China will become a bigger economy than the US, no single country will be capable enough to take on China. It is therefore important, to look at the set of countries that could play an important role in containing China. Concluding her talk, Ms Dwivedi stated that China’s rise is concerning because it is not peaceful. Some of the aspects like Beijing’s willingness to weaponise non-military engagements between nations and President Xi Jinping’s ambitions of establishing himself as a permanent fixture in Chinese history through largely revisionist means demonstrate why China’s rise will not be peaceful. She contended that one of the possible strategies of managing China’s rise is through diversification of economic options. That is, instead of trading solely with China, countries need to adopt a ‘China plus one’ strategy that ensures enough economic exposure to other countries. Second, India can exploit the opportunity provided by China’s existing backwardness in the semiconductor industry and ramp up its domestic production. Control over semiconductor technology will force China to be more accommodative and limit its aggressive foreign policy conduct. Following Ms Dwivedi’s presentation, Ambassador Chinoy commented that the Chinese culture is an important factor in understanding the party’s policies. Much of what the party is doing today is the legacy of Chinese civilisational attributes of conformity to group dynamics that supersedes the individual requirement. Similarly, various other policies like complete control and the system of meritocracy are part of the old mandarin system. He noted that although there are external influences like the Marxist-Leninist ideology, state capitalism and contemporary pop culture, Chinese civilisational attributes need to be understood while alluding to misconceptions regarding China. Referring to the Sino-US competitive naval build-up, Ambassador Chinoy observed that the US might have fleets in lesser numbers but they are twice the size of Chinese ships in terms of tonnage. Further, the fact that the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size is unlikely to turn tables as the US economy has a tremendous capacity for innovation and R&D. He concluded by stating that when looking at the future of China, there is a three-factor frame—first is the leadership which comes and goes, second is the party which is a political structure, and third is China as a civilisational entity which will outlive everything else. Therefore, a deeper understanding of China as a civilisational entity constituted of its culture, language, agriculture, family planning and financing is necessary. As the floor opened for discussion, the members of the East Asia Centre at MP-IDSA proffered their views on the book and about how the world will counter China. Dr Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator, remarked that the work is highly relevant in the present scenario as India is debating hard on China and also a consensus is gradually emerging between India and other powers regarding the need to counter China. He agreed with the author that while discussing ways to counter China, countries will have to look beyond the conventional military method and develop a multi-pronged strategy instead. He also mentioned that the international community needs to make a distinction between China and the Communist Party of China (CPC) and talk about the latter as it has a global outreach and has been provocative in nature. At the end of his remarks, he posed two questions to the author—first, why China needs to be countered? And second, if China becomes aggressive and assertive in its own style, then how will the world deal with it? Following Dr Panda’s observations, Dr Prashant Kumar Singh, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, offered his remarks. He complimented the author for enriching the Indian debate on China and stated that China has been more of a puzzle. He mentioned that the problem is how to define the CPC, which has tried to move away from the transactional promise of delivering growth as a source of its legitimacy to cultural roots of China and has tried to make the CPC a part of China’s cultural common sense. The biggest challenge CPC poses to the world is ideological, as China is exporting its capacity-centric philosophy to many parts of the world. However, the brighter aspect is that China is playing by the terms of the democratic world and this is where the democratic countries can have an upper hand over China. Offering her comments, Dr M.S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, drew attention to the debates about China going on around the world and the need for an interdisciplinary discussion to introduce fresh perspectives in the debate. She noted that the issues of trade and technology that the book highlights are the two most important aspects with regard to China as Beijing is putting in a lot of effort to capture that spectrum. Also, the issues of trade and technology are dividing the world about ways to counter China. She asked the author about the advantages India could have if it follows the ‘China plus one’ strategy and also the possible stumbling blocks in achieving it. She also asked how the international community will counter the Chinese narrative of equating good governance with democracy. Referring to the issue of raising the costs for China, Dr Titli Basu, Associate Fellow with East Asia Centre, asked about what realistic and practical potential multipolar solidarity holds in shaping Chinese behaviour. Also, with regard to domestic dynamics, she asked about the author’s assessment of the pressing challenges in front of China as it advances towards the 20th Party Congress. Ms Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst with East Asia Centre, raised two questions—first, why China wants to change the international order from which it has benefitted hugely in the past; and second, how the world can manage the Chinese threat in ungoverned spaces like cyberspace and outer space where there are no defined norms of behaviour. Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, commented that the notion of China’s peaceful rise is a myth. For a long time, various countries have sidelined their political and military unease with China and kept doing business as usual. However, post-pandemic, the world has finally woken up to the threat China poses. He highlighted China’s disregard for international rules, their tendency to doublespeak and expressed the need to develop new negotiating techniques to deal with China. During the Q&A session, Dr Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA asked about the author’s view on the rising trade numbers with China, despite the blinkers being off after the Ladakh incident. Capt Anurag Bisen (IN), Research Fellow, also asked about the disconnect between the business and the strategic community in India with regard to how they see or view China. Responding to the comments and remarks, Ms Dwivedi highlighted the various drawbacks and the exploitative nature of the Chinese infrastructural projects, which can be countered by initiatives like Build Back Better World (B3W) or the Blue Dot Network. She also emphasised the role of international agencies in managing Chinese behaviour in cyber and outer space. Furthermore, she contended that trade deficits can be strategically used as leverage against China to ensure favourable trading terms or for strategic gains. Report prepared by Ms Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.	East Asia	China
13th SOUTH ASIA CONFERENCE - Return of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Implications and Way Forward	December 16, 2021 to December 17, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Conference	Concept Note Concept Note Return of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Implications and Way Forward (To be held Online on 16–17 December 2021) *Concept Note* The Taliban are back in Afghanistan. Amidst deepening humanitarian and economic crises in the country, the Taliban have announced a caretaker cabinet, mostly comprised of members blacklisted under the UN sanctions list, including the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues from the Haqqani Network. The caretaker government barely represents the remarkable social and ethnic diversity that characterises the Afghan polity. Though several countries have directly engaged the Taliban, they remain circumspect about extending any formal recognition to the Haqqani–Taliban regime in Kabul. The growing friction among various Taliban groups, particularly between the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, has also come to the fore. Contrary to the commitments made to the international community by the Doha-based Taliban leadership, there have been growing instances of summary executions and revenge killings in provinces and vast rural areas, and enforcement of strict restrictions on women, youth and media across the country. Though Taliban leaders in their international interactions continue to state that rights of women and ethnic and religious minorities will be protected, and that there will be a general amnesty for Afghans who have worked with the previous government or the Western coalition, including members of the erstwhile security establishment, the situation on the ground suggests otherwise. Whether by design or owing to differences within the rank-and-file, the Taliban leadership appears to be capitulating under pressure from its notably conservative core cadres. Compared to the 1990s, the Taliban today have several constituent groups with competing ideas and perceptions about ‘genuine Islamic rule’. With the takeover of Kabul, the Islamist veneer on the Taliban movement appears to be cracking as factional power-play deepens within the ‘emirate’. Maintaining ambiguity or contradictory messaging on issues of concern caters to managing differing perceptions within the rank-and-file and simultaneously sustaining the façade of a new and changed Taliban, especially as the Haqqani–Taliban regime seeks international engagement and recognition. The disconnect between sections of the older leadership that sought to convey a relatively moderate image of the ‘emirate’ to the outside world, and a whole new generation of battle-hardened commanders and overzealous hardliners that predominate the Taliban rank-and-file, is more than palpable. The leadership also remains strikingly all-Taliban and Haqqanis, in the absence of non-Taliban or Shia representation in its senior ranks. This is bound to lead to a strong sense of marginalisation and alienation among non-Taliban Pashtuns and various other ethnicities that together form a vast majority of the Afghan population. The UN Security Council and various other forums such as G7, G20, SCO and CSTO have thus emphasised the need for the establishment of “an inclusive and representative government” in Afghanistan. While the so-called Taliban 2.0 may have realised the value of public diplomacy and communications strategy, their ideological and political impulse, as reflected in their tendency to monopolise and over-centralise power, appears patently old and familiar. With the Taliban, who subscribe to the Deobandi-Wahhabi version of Islam taught in Pakistani madrassas, now at the helm in Kabul, the theological and ideological divide among various militant Islamist entities, particularly on matters of jurisprudence, is likely to gain further traction in the region. Unfortunately, the decades-old support structures responsible for sustained sectarian violence and cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan and the region remain fully intact. Such threats have also long-disrupted and long-impeded progress on both intra- and inter-regional trade and connectivity. Several reports, including by the UN, suggest that international terrorist networks and their regional affiliates of various hue, including those that are state-sponsored, who seek to violently impose their obscurantist ideologies on mostly pluralistic societies in the region, have been regrouping in Afghanistan. Their presence remains a key security concern for countries in the South and Central Asia region, and beyond. Recent developments in Afghanistan are likely to galvanise them into spectacular action, provide impetus to drug trafficking and radicalisation among youth, and thereby sow the seeds of future conflict and socio-political discord in the ‘Heart of Asia’. The UN Security Council Resolutions 2593 (August 2021) and 2596 (September 2021) have emphasised that the territory of Afghanistan should not be used to threaten or attack any country, to plan or finance terrorist acts, or to shelter and train terrorists, and that no Afghan group or individual should support terrorists operating on the territory of any country. The larger international community has for now adopted a policy of ‘wait and watch’ towards the developing situation in Afghanistan. However, given the growing humanitarian crisis facing the Afghan people and the threat of refugee outflow, consequent to the collapse of both state machinery and economy, including the flight of capital and trained manpower from the country, the regional and international constituency advocating transactional engagement with the Haqqani–Taliban regime is expanding. Against this backdrop, the MP-IDSA is organising a two-day conference in an online format on 16–17 December 2021, as part of its Annual South Asia Conference, inviting a cross-section of experts, analysts and policymakers to seek answers to the following questions and dwell on the possible way forward on Afghanistan: How is the situation in Afghanistan likely to pan out in the immediate to short-term? Given the growing pulls and pressures, both within and from outside, will the Taliban be able to hold itself together and provide a stable and effective national leadership? How are other Afghan political actors likely to respond to the return of the Taliban in Kabul? How are regional and extra-regional countries looking at the return of the Taliban and its implications for the security landscape in and around the ‘Heart of Asia’? In the absence of national reconciliation, how effective and sustainable will the economic and political incentives be in transforming the Taliban, from an armed proxy jihadi network into a moderate, broad-based and independent governing authority? What does the return of the Taliban bode for Pakistan in the long-run? The Taliban 2.0 (as the new pseudonym goes) is being pushed to an ostensibly more moderate position by the more virulent Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) group and its affiliates. In this context, how is it likely to affect the ideological underpinnings of the Taliban and their unity? What is the way forward, in terms of available policy options for the region and the wider international community to deal with the developing situation in Afghanistan? Conference Programme CONFERENCE PROGRAMME 13th MP-IDSA SOUTH ASIA CONFERENCE RETURN OF THE TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN: IMPLICATIONS AND WAY FORWARD Read More[+] Inaugural Address Inaugural Address at 13th MP-IDSA SOUTH ASIA CONFERENCE Conference Rapporteurs' Report CONFERENCE RAPPORTEURS’ REPORT Conference Takeaways CONFERENCE TAKEAWAYS Conference Videos 13th MP-IDSA South Asia Conference: Return of Taliban in Afghanistan \| Inaugural & First Session 13th MP-IDSA South Asia Conference: Perspectives on Afghanistan \| Second Session 13th MP-IDSA South Asia Conference: Regional Perspectives \| Third Session 13th MP-IDSA South Asia Conference: Way Forward in Afghanistan \| Fourth Session Contact us Mr Vishal Chandra Co-ordinator, 13th South Asia Conference Research Fellow, South Asia Centre Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses New Delhi-110010 Tel (O): +91 11-26717983 Email: sac2021.mpidsa@gmail.com	South East Asia and Oceania	South Asia Conference
Monday Morning Webinar on the topic “Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Indian Industries"	December 13, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Monday Morning Meeting	The webinar was conducted by the Institute on Monday, 13 December 2021. Group Captain A. Karunakaran (Research Fellow, MP-IDSA) was the speaker and Commodore Abhay Singh (Research Fellow, MP-IDSA) moderated the session. Executive Summary The session underscored the historical context of UAS, their use beginning from the 18th century, Chinese and Pakistani UAS programmes, and the Indian industries’ perspective on the “Make in India” drive by the Government of India for robust UAS defence-based use. Detailed Report Commodore Abhay Singh introduced the topic by pointing how Unmanned Aircraft Systems or Drones are an area of strength and strategic opportunities, having implications for national security. Additionally, they have an increasingly significant role to play in varying areas including economy, mining, transportation, and mapping. In August 2021, the Government of India introduced a policy to realise the ambitions of India’s emergence as a Global Drone Hub. The growing significance attached to drones could be understood from the report unveiled by the BIS Research, highlighting how the Global Drone Market accounts for $28 billion this year. While drones are gaining popularity in India, most of them and their components are currently imported. The government is taking various initiatives and measures within India to overcome such challenges by encouraging Indian Industries. Group Captain A. Karunakaran quoted a former American General Henry H. Arnold, who in the post-World War II era had predicted how the relevance of unmanned aircraft would overtake manned vehicles in the theatre of future war. He also explained how Unmanned Aircraft Systems have several nomenclatures such as Unmanned Aerial Systems, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA), Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPV), and Drones across industries in the world. However, he chose UAVs as the focal point of his presentation. UAVs are powered aerial vehicles, lack crew, can be piloted or operated remotely, carry objects that are lethal or non-lethal. He also elaborated about Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs). They are also UAVs with Artificial Intelligence, greater maneuverability and greater self-protection capability. The speaker went on to delineate the history of the UAVs, beginning from the 18th century when Pilotless and Explosive-Laden Balloons came into the picture and were sent across territorial or maritime borders. He gave examples such as Austria using such devices against Italy, United States of America during its civil war in 1861 and Japan adopting a similar tactic in 1944 against the Americans. Kites were also relied upon as UAVs. During World War I &II radio-controlled target drones proved advantageous for anti-aircraft training purposes. Although the use of target drones continued in the post-WWII era, it did not replace the heavy reliance or the focus of research and development on manned vehicles. During the 1960s, when an American pilot, Gary Powers was shot down and captured by the Soviets, the emphasis began to be shifted toward the use of UAVs. Between the 1960s-2013, the conversion of manned to unmanned drones began to occur for undertaking dull, dirty and dangerous reconnaissance missions. Apart from intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, UAVs can also be used in the form of armed UAVs. Some UAVs are designed to be destroyed after hitting the intended target (Kamikaze mode). Swarm Drones have achieved a lot of fame across the globe and are gaining importance for tactical purposes. Furthermore, a lot of countries have lately begun directing a lot of their research toward UCAVs. UAVs were extensively used in conflicts such as the Vietnam War, Yom Kippur War, Gulf War, Bekka Valley Operation, and the Balkans War. The debate surrounding UAVs took on a new role beginning from the Global War on Terror in 2001. USA used predator drones to eliminate individual targets and the most recent example is the attack on an IS-K target in August 2021 in Afghanistan by use of the MQ9 Reaper UAV. In 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also witnessed extensive use of kamikaze drones. Indian drones are subject to rules and regulations such as the Drone Rules- 2021 released in August 2021 by the Ministry of Civil Aviation. Similarly, in the Defence arena the Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (2013) was released with the modified version given in 2018. The different categories of civil drones include Nano drones, Micro drones, Small, Medium drones and are used for matters such as police patrol, agriculture, and medical supplies. The defence-based drones are classified as (High Altitude Long Endurance) HALE, (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) MALE, Tactical, VTOL, Micro/mini, and UCAV. The latter is used for locating terrorists and combat-based purposes. Group Captain Karunakaran spoke about the Chinese UAV Programme. He said it is also crucial to highlight how China has relied upon UAVs and built a robust aviation programme, beginning from 1950s. Government support, reliable infrastructure, quality education, research and development have collectively helped China in this domain. Collaboration and Joint Ventures with other countries and clandestine operations also aided China in its objectives. The three phases of China’s UAV programme include its Formative Phase (1949-1960), where Reverse Engineering of Soviet and American target drones gave huge momentum to their UAV Programme. The Chinese later converted manned aircraft to target drones. The second was the Consolidation Phase (1960-2001), where there were tie-ups with leading manufacturing companies to produce next-generation aircraft. Finally, the Exploratory Phase (since 2001) is where focus on enabling technology began. The organisational set-up headed by the Central Military Commission steered the UAV Programme as National Will. Aerospace Universities and the Aerospace Industries have supported the Chinese aviation programme and are instrumental in its reaching great heights. China has collaborated with other countries and hired individual experts, including those of Indian origin, to produce futuristic technology. Its aviation industry, having set up in 1950, has matured over the years. It has designed 40 and built 1500 types of UAVs. The origin of sub-parts procured by companies such as Boeing is often traced back to China. China has also procured the required technology through means of Deception, Espionage and Cyber-Attacks on American defence contractors to acquire Technologies. Focusing on Pakistanis UAV Programme, the speaker stated that its UAV programme emerged after the US embargo was proposed under the Pressler Amendment Act in 1990. It owes the development of its programme to PSUs and aid extended by the Chinese. The private sector also had a significant role to play in this process. Pakistan has gone for an indigenous setup of its UAV programme to encourage industries. Americans are hesitant to supply UAVs to Pakistan, lest they fall into the Chinese hands. Earlier, Pakistan had to start from scratch in defence manufacturing since most of the Ordnance factories were in India before Partition. After partition in 1947, the country focused on medium and small-sized UAVS due to economic constraints. They have been used in the border areas patrol and for Intelligence Service and Reconnaissance (ISR) role; aiding terrorists to push across the borders. While dwelling on the Indian UAV Programme, the speaker mentioned that India’s UAV indigenous development began at Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) around the year 2000. A number of UAVs were at varying stages of development. Meanwhile for strategic purposes India imported UAVs such as Harpy, Harop, Searcher, Heron UAVs. Purchase of armed MQ9 Reaper by India is in the pipeline. India has also gone for explosive-laden sky-striker drones, procuring them from Israel. India’s private sector is at a nascent stage. India’s progress in UAV development has certain challenges such as design and developmental challenges, technology denials by the Americans, lack of synergy between the government agencies and the private industry. The roadmap for India’s successful UAV programme will center on facets such as self-reliance (Made in India programme), instituting time-bound action plans, synergising civil-military aviation manufacturing, investment in research and development, supporting indigenous projects, acceptance of failure, excellence in aeronautics education, and formulation of next-generation aviation traffic management systems etc. Overall, the survey on Private Industries conducted by the speaker shows a positive outlook trajectory and brings out certain amendments that need to be brought about in policy. The Q/A session consisted of a discussion on varying facets including remarks and questions by the Director General Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, who referred to China making use of foreign experts to develop technologies, including through engagement with experts from Russia and Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He also highlighted how Indian experts have provided their expertise to China earlier and guidelines to curb such activities should be issued by the government to this effect and how the Sea Guardian drones have been acquired on lease from the Americans for the use of the Indian Navy. He raised questions about the future of the UAVs, primarily the loitering weapons, and if such weapons could be solar-powered for far-reaching endurance. His comment also highlighted one potential threat of the UAVs carrying human payload across borders. He emphasised that future airspace needs to be integrated with manned and unmanned aircraft, therefore traffic management will be a huge challenge. Dr. Cherian Samuel raised pertinent points about the rationale behind extending the Border Security Force (BSF) jurisdiction; DRDO potentially monopolising the UAV domain since the private initiatives have failed. Captain Anurag Bisen referred to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where the drones proved to be a game-changer. He also questioned if we would follow a similar pathway that Americans have (transitioning more toward unmanned aerial vehicles) to mitigate the shortage of personnel. Since 2010, the U.S. has commissioned more unmanned systems vis-à-vis manned systems. Furthermore, he talked about the need for instituting international laws to govern this domain. Dr. Sanur Sharma had raised the issue of drone development, India’s current status, and Counter Drone Technology. Dr. Rajiv Nayan asked a question pertaining to the Armed Forces’ perspective regarding UAV-based challenges from Pakistan, China, and non-state actors, and underscored the role of academic institutions in studying this domain. The Deputy Director General, Major Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi emphasised that research on policy governing Unmanned Aircraft, Unmanned Ground Vehicles and Underwater Vehicles employability with International Law need to be carried out. He also referred to the policy paper circulated two months ago in this regard and encouraged the relevant Centre’s to produce a more in-depth study on the topic of discussion today. Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.	North America & Strategic Technologies	Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
1st Virtual Bilateral Dialogue on “Security in Indo-Pacific: Emerging Cooperation between India, Czech Republic, and the EU”	December 13, 2021		1730 to 1930 hrs	Bilateral	Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and Prague Security Studies Institute, Prague are organized their 1st Virtual Bilateral Dialogue on “Security in Indo-Pacific: Emerging Cooperation between India, Czech Republic, and the EU”. Event Report Event Report The First MP-IDSA and PSSI Virtual Bilateral Dialogue was jointly organised on 13 December 2021 by Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi and the Prague Security Studies Institute. The broad themes discussed in the event were “Prospects for India-EU Cooperation in the Indo Pacific” and “India-Czech Republic Cooperation/ India-Europe Defence Cooperation”. The participants comprised of heads of institutions, deputy minister, ambassadors and scholars from both sides namely Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy Director General MP-IDSA, Mr. Roger W. Robinson Jr. Chairman and Co-Founder PSSI, H.E. Hemant H. Kotalwar India’s Ambassador to the Czech Republic, H.E. Jan Havránek Czech Deputy Minister of Defence for Policy and Strategy, Amb. Majeev Puri Former Ambassador of India to the European Union, Dr. Jan Hornát Charles University Faculty of Social Sciences, Dr. Martin Hala Charles University Department of Sinology and Director of Sinopsis, Ing. Libor Sečka Special Representative of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic for the Indo-Pacific Region, Amb. P.S. Raghavan Former Ambassador of India to Czech Republic and Russia, Mr. Seppo Nurmi Deputy Head of Delegation of the EU to India and Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones Enhancing European Security Cooperation In And With Asia (ESIWA) thematic coordinator. Executive Summary Indo Pacific as a region has lately gained importance after China’s aggressive behaviour and the massive military build-up in the South China Sea. China has been aimed at subjugating the smaller states in the region and making contested claims over portions of their territory. China has reportedly built new islands to be able to claim more area under its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The EU on the other hand has good economic and trade relations with China, especially the bigger EU economies, but has started to realise the need to stand more firmly against the violations of a rules based international order. It intends to diversify relations and cooperation with the countries in the Indo Pacific region with India being a natural ally. Developed economies of the region also have a vital role to play in terms of their alliances, be that with the EU, the US or other powers. Early access to US markets led to growth and development of trade ties in Asian economies, like that of Japan and China. Earlier the Indo Pacific was dominated by the British due to their might in the maritime domain but overtime their dominance and hegemony in this area has suffered a setback. The one to gain from this is the US, which now holds a renewed interest in the region and is endeavouring to prevent China from dominating the region. Post Afghanistan, it has become even more imperative for the US to pose as a reliable and responsible power. India is a natural choice, among others, for the US to ally with in order to put up a united front against the violators of an international rules based order. India-EU cooperation has gained momentum from the time the Indian PM met with the leaders of each of the 27 member bloc during the India-EU Leaders’ Meeting on 8th May, 2021. It was agreed to advance the implementation of actions set out in the India-EU Roadmap 2025 and engage to ensure security, prosperity and sustainable development in a multi-polar world. This will further strengthen the maritime cooperation that India and EU have had over the years, involving projects like Project Atlanta off the coast of Somalia. Evolving robust ties with the EU, offers an array of opportunities for India. While both have their own share of problems, be it dealing with China (for India) or be it the EU’s relations with Russia and Belarus, but they need to look beyond these and establish strong ties with non-border sharing states. An absence of a direct land or maritime border with India should not stop the EU from creating and maintaining good relations with India and other Asian economies. With the Czech Republic holding the presidency of the Council of the EU next year, the focus on the Indio Pacific region is expected to grow and a deeper role is likely to emerge for India to engage with its European partners in the region. The need to diversify relations and play a bigger role in world affairs is a common need of the EU and India. Upon assuming the presidency, the Czech Republic already has plans set out to deepen the already established ties with South Asian economies. Nations like Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia often have had to bear the brunt of natural disasters like tsunami, cyclones and earthquakes among others. The EU has an earth observation programme called ‘Copernicus’ which helps deliver timely information and warning about any possible upcoming disasters. Sharing this with the island nations could help them prevent loss of lives and property in huge numbers. India and the Czech Republic have had good relations with the former always relying on the latter for its robust small arms industry, which has been an important factor in the Indian Defence System. Historically too, the two countries have been tied together due to Indology being popular way back in 1850s. In fact, many of Rabindranath Tagore’s works have been directly translated from Bengali into Czech, rather than using English as an intermediary language. This session could not have been better timed, especially with so much going on in the world from Belarusian crisis, AUKUS alliance, Quad to Afghanistan crisis. The ties between India and the Czech Republic are in a good space. This is so because the Indian Foreign Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, understands Prague well, having served there during his diplomatic tenure. The Czech Republic has always had expertise in the technological sector and technical innovation. This can be a great opportunity for India to collaborate on apart from the cutting edge small arms industry. Transfer of strategic and defence technologies is an important aspect of India- Czech collaborations. Visit of our CDS late Gen. Bipin Rawat to Prague, about a month before the tragic helicopter crash, was to explore similar avenues of cooperation in the defence sector and technologies. The domain of cyber, space technology, nuclear energy and counter terrorism have not been explored much in the partnership but these fields offer abundant opportunities, which will be of immense importance in times to come. India and its European counterparts also cooperate in the non-traditional security aspects like climate change, green transition and the pandemic. Strategic security and defence relations are only at the developing stage in the partnership but have a long way to go. In the emerging geopolitical landscape of the Indo Pacific, India-EU cooperation is not only a vision but also a need for both the powers. Detailed Report Opening Remarks by Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy opened his remarks by stating the importance of Indology in Czech-India cultural relations since the 1850s. He referred to the frequent high level visits and multifaceted partnerships in economic, defence and technical sectors between the two nations. There was also a mention of the Czech small arms industry which manufactures quality products, as important for India. He stated that there is a strong need to build more resilient supply chains, especially with the rise of China posing a strategic challenge. China’s truculence and unilateralism is evident from South China Sea to the European waters. The 17+1 arrangement changing into 16+1 is a sign of tussle between democracy and authoritarianism. He drew attention to the recently concluded America’s Summit for Democracy and its recommitment to certain values of liberal order. He further said that increased US involvement as a power in Asia Pacific (replacing U.K.) and the emerging East Asian economies like China and Japan have brought the region to the forefront in today’s geopolitical tussles. Latter’s access to the US markets resulted in their early growth in the second half of the last century but now we can see this developmental impulse spread throughout the Indo Pacific and beyond. India’s vision is to achieve rapid economic and inclusive growth in a peaceful environment, not just of itself but the region too. We pursue issue based alignments which are in line with our national interest, just like others and we know that our collaboration with like-minded nations, like the Czech Republic will help us better contribute to the global structures. He concluded by reiterating that India and Czech Republic share common concerns on the agenda of climate change, economic development and also fundamental issues like terrorism, which is omnipresent. Opening Remarks by Mr. Roger W. Robinson Jr., Chairman and Co-Founder, PSSI Mr. Robinson pointed out the significant timing of the event amidst several geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics like the AUKUS, QUAD, massive troops on Ukrainian border and China’s declining economy. He also mentioned the uncertainties of US commitments to the Indo Pacific region post Afghanistan. With the military expansion picking up pace in China, there is a greater need for the EU to explore its security arrangements in the Indo Pacific, especially with India. He said that the EU and the Czech Republic can bring a great deal of non-military ideas to the table, to manage the Chinese behaviour and pushback against its unfair actions. These ideas can take many forms, like that of capital market sanctions against the Chinese bad actors, who are raising billions of dollars and using that (along with investor funds) to finance advanced nuclear weapons. Mr. Robinson further mentioned that great power rivalry is being playing out in economic and financial domains, which serve as the war fighting domain in our globalised world. Militarisation of South China Sea, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and mainland China, cyber-attacks and IP thefts profoundly undermine the common security and fundamental liberal values. Space security, space governance, traffic management and ground based commercial space race is a well of opportunities where India and Czech Republic along with the EU, can ensure a positive impact. Special Remarks by H.E. Hemant H. Kotalwar, India’s Ambassador to the Czech Republic Amb. Kotalwar initiated his address by paying homage to the late CDS and accredited him for giving impetus to the bilateral cooperation between India and the Czech Republic. He mentioned that the upcoming Czech presidency of the Council of the EU next year, accords high priority to the issue of strengthening security partnership in the Indo Pacific region and sees India as a strong potential partner. India has always considered the Czech Republic (even erstwhile Czechoslovakia) as a technological hub, on which our strong defence partnership is based. Amb. Kotalwar discussed the shared values of peace, stability, freedom and rule of law that have made this dialogue possible. He mentioned the various opportunities available at the government to government level and for private companies to collaborate in cyber security, AI and space technology. India must leverage the eagerness of Czech companies to expand cooperation in defence and security spheres. He concluded by reflecting on the immense potential of our bilateral cooperation which will take this relationship forward. He thanked the Czech Minister of Defence, MP-IDSA and PSSI for organising this event which will serve as a platform to deepen our defence cooperation and strengthen communication in future. Special Remarks by Jan Havránek, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence for Policy and Strategy, Czech Republic Minister Jan Havránek specified the need to deepen dialogue between democracies of the world by organising more such bilateral events. He spoke of dramatic shifts in the global security environment, power divisions, the rise of China and Russia challenging the international rules based order. The role played by certain state and non-state actors, hampering the progress in climate change and nuclear security arenas also found mention. He said the European Union and NATO are working together to develop a system of cooperation to improve security of the transatlantic region. The EU is trying to become a strong player in the security arena and has military ambitions to enhance its capabilities to defend itself. He mentioned Indo-Pacific as the new theatre of world affairs and the need for the EU to increase its footprint in the region. Czech Republic also sees close partnership with India as a cornerstone of its Indo Pacific policy. Experience sharing and international cooperation in domains of defence, security, cyberspace, modern technology and outer space, has become ever important in the post pandemic era. The Deputy Minister mentioned China as a challenge, which needs to be tackled. He spoke of India’s proximity with China and that its expertise in dealing with the latter can be a learning experience for those European countries who wish to partner with India in the Indo Pacific region. In his concluding remarks, he praised the already established bilateral relations and mentioned the scope to further strengthen them. Amb. Chinoy’s remarks as the Chair for Session 1- Amb. Chinoy opened the first session and introduced its theme, “Prospects for India-EU Cooperation in the Indo Pacific”. He brought out various themes of potential cooperation between India and the EU amidst the great power rivalry being played out in the Indo Pacific. China is undermining the international rules based order and freedom of navigation, thereby threatening the various trade routes that pass from the region. The primary threat before the EU is to ensure the safety of sea lanes of communication (SLOC) that China is thwarting by a reinvigorated military presence and subsequent interventions. EU’s economic prosperity is directly affected by how safe and open is the indo pacific arena. He further discussed the strategic aspect of the region and the endeavours of several European powers, like France and Germany to claim their space in this region. He mentioned the India- EU strategic partnership as a guiding light for strengthening cooperation between India and various EU nations. Amb. Chinoy concluded his remarks by introducing the three speakers. Speaker: Amb. Manjeev Puri, Former Ambassador of India to the European Union Amb. Puri made important connections like that of India’s external affairs minister having served as an ambassador in Prague and the cutting edge small arms industry of Czech Republic being our weapon of choice. The need to recognise each other through the lens of respective national interests is very important. The trade deals, turnovers and huge investments that Europe was making in China was evident to all before the pandemic but post-pandemic Europe is realising the hegemonic facet of it. He listed reasons for why India and the EU should cooperate in a mutually beneficial way in the Indo. First, he emphasized on the congruence of interest. In years to come, India will be the third largest economy and the biggest democracy right in the heart of the Indo Pacific region. Shared values of a liberal society, democracy and a free open economy exhibit India as a hub of opportunities for the EU. India can also leverage from the technological innovation capacity that the EU brings to the table. Second, is the requirement to overcome the deficiency of any shared borders between India and the EU. While India shares its borders with many countries, facilitating trade and people to people connections but the EU is not one of them. There is a need to overcome this deficiency and increase cooperation between the two powers, even in the absence of a common border. Regarding the kind of cooperation possible between the two sides, Amb. cited the example of piracy off the coast of Somalia, where the two worked together with the US. Project Atlanta, another project of the EU is yet another example of what can be done if things go downhill. The EU has done a lot for its people on the economic front but with its emerging contestations with Russia and the Chinese presence in the South China Sea, there is a need for the EU to look for partners. Given the above circumstances, India is a natural ally for the EU and it serves the interest of both to give impetus to their relationship. Speaker: Dr. Jan Hornát, Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences Dr. Hornát mentioned the role played by the US in the Indo Pacific by shifting its focus from East Asia to Asia Pacific and finally by renaming the region as Indo Pacific, highlighting the role played by India in the region. India for sure is an important player in the region but US has been pushing it to do more. India has to tightly balance its relations with China there, as it is the third largest export market for India and that cannot be ignored. This puts more pressure on India to make crucial and consequential policy decisions which will balance China and the west. He cautioned that it might even cause friction in India-US relations. He mentioned strategic altruism of US towards India, with latter becoming a major defence partner of the US. The new communications and logistics agreements that the two countries have assented to and the transfer of technologies received by India, is inducing it to balance China. The EU is trying to understand what accommodations India is willing to make when its strategic autonomy is concerned. Dr. Hornát pointed out the cold war mentality that is evident on the part of the US when it comes to containing the rise of China. The only difference is that earlier it used to be the American bloc aligning countries under it and US being the leader. And now, the US is pushing other countries to have close collaborations and foster bilateral relations to jointly pushback against China and contain its rise. A clear example of it is the Quad formation. This will increase tensions in the region and especially pressurize India, according to the perception in Central Europe. He concluded by saying that India will have to make tough policy decisions based on what kind of relations it wants with the US, the EU and other nations. Speaker: Dr. Martin Hala, Charles University, Department of Sinology and Director of Sinopsis Dr. Hala emphasised on the concept of great power rivalry and mentioned Barack Obama’s work ‘The Audacity of Hope’, as a premature observation which states that great power competition no longer exists. This concept first found mention in the National Security Strategy of the US government in 2017 and a year later in their defence strategy. China can be seen throwing its weight on smaller nations like the Philippines, Taiwan and other ASEAN nations in the South China Sea, which has alerted the smaller states before the bigger powers like the US could take note. He said that we must be cautious in using the term ‘great power rivalry’ as it can be counter-productive. Rivalry, as mentioned, is not between the two powers (US and China) but between the two systems that those nations follow. The better way to address would be to use the European term ‘systemic rivalry’ as it better encapsulates what is being conveyed. It concerns all of us and not just the perceived hegemonic powers in the equation. Dr. Hala mentioned 2018 as the year of new lows in India China ties as China rendered the 1950s agreement with India irrelevant. The new alliances like Quad or AUKUS are also offshoots of these systemic rivalries. In the end Dr. Hala concluded that we need to focus more on the stakeholders than just the major powers alone, since it affects each one of us, irrespective of how big or small the state is. Chair for Session II: Ing. Libor Sečka, Special Representative of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic for the Indo-Pacific Region Mr. Sečka began his remarks as Chair by giving condolences on CDS Bipin Rawat’s tragic and untimely demise and fondly recalled his brilliant analysis of the defence relations between India and Czech Republic. He spoke of the earlier India- EU ties being predominantly economic and cultural in nature but now the security and defence domains are making a headway too. Political investment in this regard will also be great since it is mutually beneficial. In the ‘India-EU Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025’, both sides pledged to take joint action and strengthen the strategic partnership and defend the rules based order. Since the 2020 EU-India Summit under the EU Commission, the scope of cooperation has expanded to include a newly launched maritime security dialogue, set up a working group on 5G, launching an AI taskforce and a high level ministerial dialogue to revive discussion on the pending free trade agreement. India is the biggest importer of arms and this might prompt the EU to grant Indian companies access to the European defence markets. The security cooperation between India and the EU is on three main pillars: maritime security, nuclear cooperation and peacekeeping. India- EU summit this year confirmed that both powers are ready to act as a stabilising and converging force in the world order. In conclusion, Mr. Sečka introduced the upcoming three speakers and their topics of discussions. Speaker: Amb. P.S. Raghavan, Former Ambassador of India to Czech Republic and Russia Amb. Raghavan started by commenting on one of the earlier remarks that it is not India alone that is pressurised but certain European nations seem to be facing similar situation about maintaining a balance between their Indo-Pacific relations and Euro-Transatlantic orientation of the EU. He commented on the India Czech defence partnership, calling it a promise waiting to emerge into full bloom, ever since the cold war days. Cooperation in the field of aerospace is an area of promise that remains to be taken forward in this relationship. He mentioned that the private sector participation in defence manufacturing has greatly increased in India and this offers great prospect for Czech companies which manufacture systems, sub-systems, and control mechanisms to have joint collaborations with India and play a part in the Indian government’s aerospace industry. The Czechs have upgraded the weapon systems from Warsaw Pact times to be integrated in the western systems and this kind of experience is of particular interest to India since it is also diversifying its channels of defence equipment acquisition and indigenous production Amb. Raghavan specified space security as yet another important point of collaboration between India and the Czech Republic where former’s initiative to deregulate the space ecosystem could bring hordes of opportunities for Prague. Czech entrepreneurs need to recognise that when a nation the size of India wants to indigenize, countries have to be willing to transfer technologies and manufacture under joint ventures to be able to mutually benefit from it. A number of Indian companies operating in China are looking to move out of China and into Europe. Quite a few of them moved to Berlin instead of Prague due to difficulties with latter’s visa system and immigration policies. Prague needs to work on its regulatory issues to be able to benefit from the Indian investments displacing from China and abroad. Speaker: Mr. Seppo Nurmi, Deputy Head of Delegation of the EU to India Mr. Nurmi spoke about the history of India-EU strategic partnership, which goes back 20 years. Indo Pacific region is central to EU’s relationship with India. It is the emerging centre of gravity for geopolitics and trade. It is already a key player in shaping the future world order but its tensions are also on the rise. The military build-up and the rising geopolitical competition threatens the prospects and stability of the region. The EU is the top investor and one of the biggest trading partners in the region. He also referred to the EU as the biggest trading block and that it is heavily dependent on the maritime traffic in the Indo Pacific, as around 40% of its trade passes through South China Sea. Hence, a stable and peaceful Indo Pacific is naturally in the EU’s interest. As the events in this region will have profound impact on all major economies, its safety and open navigation are a concern for the world at large. Mr. Nurmi stated further that the EU plans to offer solutions to common challenges and enhance stability and prosperity in cooperation with the regional partners. Inclusiveness, respect for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), rules based order, open and free navigation and multilateral cooperation are the points of convergence for European and Indian interests in the region. Enhancing naval deployments and boosting the partners’ maritime capacity should be focused upon. Security and defence dimension is new for the EU and to achieve success in this sphere, the EU needs the support of its various financial and organisational institutions and agencies. Project Atlanta, where the EU worked together with India in counter piracy operations is a classic example of cooperative security mechanism. To conclude, Mr. Nurmi referred to climate change, green transition and the pandemic as the non-traditional aspects of security where India-EU cooperation is strong. Maritime and naval involvement between the two parties also looks promising. Speaker: Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, Thematic Coordinator, Enhancing European Security Cooperation In and With Asia (ESIWA) Dr. Jones spoke about the initiation of the Indo Pacific project in the EU in 2018 and how it has gained impetus in the last two years. It involves six pilot nations- India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and Singapore, to enhance cooperation in the region. . Over the course of four years and a budget of 15 million euros, this project will focus on peacekeeping and crisis management, counter terrorism, counter extremism, maritime security and cyber security. With regards to India, he said, there is an existent cooperation in the maritime domain. He stated why there is not a better partner than India for the Czech Republic by emphasising on India’s rich experiences in peacekeeping missions. There is also tremendous scope for furthering bilateral cooperation over the categories of cyber, space and counter terrorism. Due to convergence of interests in the world order, a lot can be done in these arenas of cooperation. He quoted the importance of EU’s partners when it comes to implementing the ideas on the ground. They could support the policy dialogues and bring new ideas to the table regarding future activities. With regard to peacekeeping operations, it becomes imperative to bring practitioners of peace together, be it in civilian or military uniform. Lastly he emphasised on the role of public information which needs to be paced up alongside the policies so that people should be well aware of the developments in their region. Q&A Session: What role can ASEAN play in the emerging Indo Pacific according to Czech Republic or the EU? What is the scope of collaboration in India and Czech Republic over energy security? Ing. Libor Sečka replied saying there exists close cooperation and dialogue between the EU and ASEAN countries. Czech Republic during its presidency can further strengthen ties by sharing timely information under the program ‘Copernicus’, which warns against possible climate change impacts and natural disasters. This can rescue ASEAN region from the frequent natural disasters which cause havoc there. Mr. Seppo Nurmi said that FTA negotiations were started almost ten years ago with ASEAN. It is very important for the EU and ASEAN to speak in one voice but it gets difficult due to both being blocs rather than individual nations. Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones commented on the EU-ASEAN combined commitments to jointly pool resources and experiences to develop peacekeeping, training and capacity building amongst their members. P.S. Raghavan mentioned the arena of cyber space as a potential area of interaction and collaboration between the two countries. He highlighted the fact that Indian defence officers are sent to attend courses on cryptology in the Czech Republic. He also mentioned cooperation in the field of nuclear energy between the Czech Republic and India when former was chairing the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG). France’s efforts to get nuclear energy declared as green energy in the European Green Deal is also favourable to India. Czech industry has a thriving nuclear energy development equipment industry and India could possibly collaborate on that as well. Key Takeaways There is existent cooperation between India and the EU in the maritime domain and this can be strengthened further to reflect strongly in the Indo Pacific region. Possibility for potential collaboration and cooperation is very strong in domains of cyber security, space technology, climate change and defence technology but remains rather inadequate as of now. The EU and Czech Republic are actively looking to foster closer cooperation with the ASEAN and Indo Pacific countries in coming years. Although much of it is likely to be economic, security and defence related but active military cooperation is not likely to be on the cards. Rise of China is seen as a threat not only by the nations around it but also by the EU, which has strong trading links with it. The EU is slowly starting to realise the economic trap they might find themselves in, if they do not take action now. The need to diversify trade, supply chains and diplomatic ties is of as much importance to the EU, as it is to India. Report was prepared by Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. Programme Programme Programme Inaugural Session (5 minutes each speaker) Opening Remarks by Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA Opening Remarks by Mr. Roger W. Robinson Jr., Chairman and Co-Founder, PSSI Special Session (10 minutes each speaker) Remarks by Amb. Hemant H. Kotalwar, Embassy of India, Czech Republic Remarks by Deputy Minister, Jan Havránek, Ministry of Defence for Policy and Strategy, Czech Republic. Session 1: “Changing Dynamics of Major Power Rivalry: EU and Emerging Geopolitical Challenges” (8 minutes each speaker) / 45 minutes Chair: Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA Themes of Discussion *“Prospects for India- EU Cooperation in the Indo Pacific”* Speakers: Amb. Manjeev Puri, Former Ambassador of India to Nepal, European Union and Luxembourg Jan Hornat, Ph.D. Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences PhDr. Martin Hala, Ph.D. Charles University, Department of Sinology, and Director of Sinopsis Q&A Session Session 2: “India- Czech Republic Emerging Cooperation” (8 minutes each speaker)/ 45 minutes Chair: Ing. Libor Secka, Special Representative of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic for the Indo Pacific Themes of Discussion *India-Czech Republic Cooperation/India-Europe Defence Cooperation* Speakers: Amb. P.S. Raghavan, Former Ambassador of India to Czech Republic and Russia Mr. Seppo Nurmi, Deputy Head of Delegation of the EU to India Dr. Philip Shelter-Jones, ESIWA, GIZ Q&A Session Vote of Thanks Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA Dr. Jana Robinson, Managing Director, PSSI	Europe and Eurasia	Indo-Pacific, India, Czech Republic, European Union, Europe
Monday Morning Webinar on Political Developments in Pakistan	November 29, 2021			Other	Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the South Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on the topic ‘Political Developments in Pakistan’ at the Monday Morning Webinar on 29th November 2021. The webinar was chaired by Dr. Pushpita Das, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA. Director General (DG), Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Vishal Chandra, Research Fellow, Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Research Analyst, Mr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Analyst and Dr. Zainab Akhter, Research Analyst participated as panelists. Executive Summary Dr. Ashok K. Behuria analyzed the trajectories of the emerging political landscape, the state of civil-military relations and internal security developments in Pakistan. Detailed Report The chair Dr. Pushpita Das in her introductory remarks highlighted the emerging fault lines between the ruling government and the Army during the latest appointment of the Director-General (DG) of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Dr. Pushpita noted that the Imran Khan-led regime has been sidelined by the generals while selecting the new DG of ISI. She also noted that the hasty reconciliation between the government and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) indicates the ruling regime’s surrender to the demands of hardline religious groups. With these words, the chair invited the speaker, Dr. Ashok Behuria to elaborate on these issues. Dr. Ashok Behuria dwelt on the continuing political tussle between the government and the opposition and highlighted the growing discord between the two on several policy matters. The opposition, he said, targeted the government particularly on its economic and foreign policy choices and its failure to check the rising inflation in the country. He mentioned that the opposition had so far taken out around 23 protest marches against the government. He also pointed out that unflustered by all this, the Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (PTI) government led by the Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan had passed 33 bills in the joint sitting of parliament on 17 November without holding talks with the opposition to evolve a consensus. The controversial bills which were passed included bills related to use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in the coming elections, the Anti-Rape Bill and bills related to the International Court of Justice. The speaker noted that behind-the-scene manipulations by the deep state ensured a majority for the government in the joint sitting to pass these bills. The speaker maintained that the government and the opposition may not also necessarily be on the same page even on important national security matters. Similarly, the speaker also referred to the latest controversy surrounding the recent leaked-audiotapes of former Chief Justice Saqib Nisar where he was heard telling someone that it was imperative to keep Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz behind bars to bring Imran Khan to power. According to the speaker, the growing nexus between the Judiciary and the Army particularly concerning the recent tapes cannot be ignored, and the controversy that followed furthered widened the gulf between the government and the opposition. The speaker stressed that though the nexus between the Judiciary and Army is not new to Pakistan, however, recently it had become more visible. He noted that in recent years, the opposition had been criticizing the Army like never before. Moreover, the opposition questioned the legitimacy of the ruling dispensation on the ground that the present government is at the helm of power through a “stolen election.” In the second part of the talk, Dr. Ashok dealt with civil-military relations and held that there might have been some signs of disruption between them in previous months, however, after Saqib Nisar tapes emerged, the Imran Khan government and the Army seemed to work closely together, which pointed to a civil-military reconciliation at the moment. However, the speaker maintained that the public opinion is shifting away from Khan to the opposition for which the military might be looking for an alternative to Imran Khan in the next elections. The third theme pertained to military-militant issues. The speaker held that there was a deep historical relationship between the Army and the militant hardliner religious groups and stressed that it was the Army that brought religious groups like TLP to the mainstream to delegitimize Sharif’s politics and accused him of being un-Islamic. The Army, he said, had used these groups tactically both in the past and in the present, but he cautioned that these groups were not monolithic and some elements within these groups operated beyond the influence of the Army. He dwelt on the backdoor agreements between the Army and the TLP and lately with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and said that TTP wanted to establish Islamic rule in Pakistan like the Taliban in Afghanistan. Therefore, the Army was trying hard to divert their attention towards India and particularly towards Kashmir. The speaker noted that whenever Pakistan faced any major internal/domestic crisis, the Army always tried to divert the attention of groups threatening it from within towards India. The recent spike in infiltration bids along the Line of Control (LoC) pointed to this trend, he argued. The speaker emphasized that in the coming days, such developments would increase. He also brought it out in his presentation that the state-controlled media in Pakistan had hardened their position on Kashmir and India and this was on expected lines given the internal political, economic and security challenges that Pakistan was beset with. Comments, Observations and Questions from the participants The Director General in his comments held that any upheaval in Pakistan would ultimately affect India and cautioned that the vicarious pleasure that Indians tend to derive from the economic and political crises that Pakistan is beset with will not help India strategically. He maintained that the Army had a final say in Pakistan politics as well as its foreign policy choices and reminded the audience that Pakistan Army’s mindset was still rooted in what they called as unfinished business of partition when it comes to Jammu and Kashmir. Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik noted that although Imran Khan had completed his four years in power, his government is mired in scandals related to corruption, rising inflation among other challenges in the domestic sphere and therefore the Army is waiting for the right opportunity to find an alternative to him. She maintained that the opposition parties, particularly Shahbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto, seemed to be willing to work with the Army. In the Q&A session, the speaker responding to the queries, held that even if developments in Afghanistan did not have any direct bearing on the civil-military relations in Pakistan, it had emboldened the Jihadi-radical elements which would pose a critical challenge to the Pakistani state in future. He held that the economic crisis may provide fuel to the opposition to take on the government but that may not affect Imran Khan’s political fortunes very much, as help from China, Saudi Arabia and US was likely to come in to help Pakistan tide over the crisis. Dr. Ashok noted that the Army had played a tactical role in striking a deal between the TLP and the ruling government, however, while referring to past deals, he stressed that the present understanding between the TLP and the government might be reversed, depending upon the calculation of the army and the prevailing security scenario in future. He also cautioned that there are varied sorts of elements within these religious groups that can disrupt the army's strategies despite their warming up to the army. Key Takeaways: The latest political crisis (leaked tapes, judicial crisis, opposition parties protests, Imran Khan Government’s collusion with the religious hardliners) and economic crisis (rising inflation, Pakistan rupee depreciating to its lowest ever value) have led to massive criticism of Imran Khan's policies, but as per the speaker, the multiple crises will not affect his immediate political and electoral prospects. On the political front, Imran Khan continues to enjoy the support of the Army and Judiciary. The Opposition parties are rather in disarray and lack the institutional and mass support to challenge Imran Khan on the political domain as a united front. On the economic front, there are no imminent chances of a collapse. In addition to the strong institutional incentives in the domestic sphere, China does not want Pakistan to collapse. Even the United States will come to its aid if there is an economic collapse. The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan have energized Islamists in Pakistan like never before. Any major upheavals in Pakistan have direct and indirect security implications for India, particularly concerning the infiltration and cross border skirmishes in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The Report has been prepared by Mohd. Usman Bhatti, Research Assistant, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.	South Asia	Pakistan
MP-IDSA and CSS Virtual Bilateral Dialogue	November 29, 2021		1700 to 1830 hrs	Bilateral	The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) and the Centre for Security Studies (CSS), War Studies University, Warsaw are organising their 1st Virtual Bilateral Dialogue on “Emerging Security Complex in Afghanistan: Perspectives from India and Poland" on Monday, 29 November 2021 at 1700 hrs (IST). Programme [PDF] Note for Participants: · Kindly note that registration is mandatory to gain access to the event. · The invitation is non-transferable. · Registration is on a first-come-first-served basis. Hence you are requested to register for the event well in advance. · You are requested to log in with your name. · Kindly join the webinar on time. Doors to the event will be closed after 10 minutes. The registration will become invalid thereafter. · During the Q&A session, please type in your questions/comments briefly and precisely in the ‘Q&A’ option after choosing the "Send to All Panellists" option to ensure that these are visible to all panellists, including the Speaker and the Chair.	Europe and Eurasia	Poland, India, Afghanistan
Monday Morning Webinar on "Systems Approach to Procurement - A Historical Perspective"	November 22, 2021			Other	In the Monday Morning Webinar held on November 22, 2021, Col. Manish Rana, Research Fellow, Defense Economics & Industry Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on the topic “Systems Approach to Procurement – An Historical Perspective". Col. Vivek Chadha, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. The Webinar aimed to draw certain lessons from the patterns which were emerging through study of the history of defence procurement in India and also try to understand the complexities by adopting a Systems Approach. The webinar also attempted to identify the fixes that have failed due to interaction of various elements and sub-systems within the defence procurement system in India, to enable guide the decision makers in formulating better and enduring Defence Procurement Policy. The speaker gave a brief introduction to the Systems Approach to explain what it means and how it works, as also how we can utilize it in our Defence procurement system as such. He brought out that any organization is created with some objective in mind based on a felt need and it consists of various sub-systems and elements which interact with each other to provide the desired outcome. However, over a period of time these relations start affecting each other’s way of working and outcome leading to reduction in efficiency and problems start surfacing. When the problem is identified, the aim is to get the feedback from the environment as to what is happening and why it is happening and based on that feedback the changes in the interaction of the sub elements /sub systems are introduced to make the organization behave in a particular way or come out with a outcome which is desired. Col. Manish Rana brought out that Systems Approach focuses on a problem which emerges with the interaction among the elements in society, enterprises, and the environment. When we see a problem, we don’t see a problem in isolation we see the genesis of that problem in the interaction with the other sub-systems and sub-elements within that system and accordingly we consider various responses to come out with the solution. As told by Albert Einstein “The significant problems we face today cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which they were created”. That is the thought process behind analyzing a problem from a different perspective from a different point of view and from a different level of thinking. The crux remains that complete system is more than the simple sum of the elements which are existing in it (“Whole is greater than sum of the parts”). And for the organizational problem solving the systems thinking approach offers a higher level of thinking. The speaker talked about Defence procurement as a system. Major sub-system/elements which come into play into this system are Service Headquarters, MoD, Industry and external factors. Service headquarters in itself is a kind of system which have various sub-systems within itself (Operations, Perspective planners, procurement sections, maintenance sections). MoD also is a smaller system or a sub-system having various departments under it. Further we have Industry as another major element which forms part of procurement system. Industry includes Indian entities, Foreign OEMs, Start-ups, MSMEs, DPSUs. Another major factor which needs consideration is the external environment. The procurement system directly or indirectly interacts with the external environment through MEA policies, PMO directives, Ministries relating to Industries and MSMEs etc. All these elements can be brought together under one system to be able to define the system of defence procurement and there interactions amongst each other and its effect on the outcome if studied objectively will give us leverage points to ensure system continues to produce the desired outcome. Concept of causal loops as a tool for systems analysis was explained and “Fixes that Fail ‘Archetypes was discussed by the speaker. This behavioral pattern suggests that to fulfil a particular need or gap whatever action you take that may give you certain results in the short run, however, it may also happen that over a long term this particular action causes some unintended consequence which over a period come back to haunt us and keep increasing the problem further. Aim of adopting a Sytems approach is to identify such possibilities by study of behavioral patterns in history to avoid introducing a fix which may fail again. Col. Manish Rana discussed the Historical Perspective of Procurement in India and highlighted that modern Defence industry which was setup in India before 1947 was essentially to meet the colonial interests. They had created a particular system towards which small mills, gun powder factories, gun carriages production facilities etc were set up for whatever limited requirement they had. The British rulers were not inclined towards making bigger weapon systems or undertaking major defence projects in India as the cost of producing those systems in India was appreciated to be higher as compared to procuring them from England. The initial infrastructure that was set up at that time was very limited in scope for various reasons which were suiting the colonial power at that time and was able to at best meet the Indian Armed Forces requirement of so called Quartermaster stores only. Speaker mentioned about the Industrial policy of 1956 and its impact on defence procurement and production. It was a major turning point in the Indian Defence Production system. The 1956 Industrial Policy was in accordance with the national objective of socialist pattern of society at that time, towards which the public sector was given a push. Government had recognised and realised that the planned and rapid development is the need of the day. However, the industrial base in India at that time was not able to give the results that were required and not able to put in the required capital in major sectors like defence. Hence, the basic sectors and some strategically important sectors were put directly under the control of the government. The State assumed direct responsibility for the future development of industries over a wide area. Like exclusive responsibility of Railways and Air transport, arms and ammunition and atomic energy. Research and development in various fields was also realized to be an important aspect and towards this the DRDO was established in 1958. Prof. PMS Blackett played a major role to guide the government and helped government to take the policies forward. Unfortunately, as per PMS Blackett the threat perception of India which was very limited and he suggested that India needs to procure weapons system to cater for their internal turmoil and limited external threat only. In one of his documents, it is also mentioned that he had advised the government to take a holistic threat perspective and come out with likely future scenarios and based on that decide what defence equipment factories and projects should be established by the Government of India. Which somehow did not happen, and we kept on struggling with the limited resources. Whereas the future of science was realised in other sectors and developments happened accordingly. Col. Manish Rana emphasized that the crux of the matter remains that we rightly pushed for the public sector units but we did not realise at that time was the need for gestation period in procurement and the production of defence equipment as also necessity of comprehensive threat assessment based requirements in defence. Col. Manish Rana linked India’s dependence on Russia to the geopolitical realities of 60’s and 70’s when China-Pakistan and USA were coming closer. At that time, we went for a treaty with Russia in 1971 i.e., Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation and focus shifted to import of defence equipment through Govt to Govt negotiations and single vendor contracts. Though we did not lose sight of indigenous capacity enhancement, towards which licensed production contracts were introduced. But the desired aim was not met as there was limited transfer of technology. Over a period of time we went into comfort zone and got used to single vendor procurements. However, in 1990s as industrial capacities started improving and economy got liberalised, defense production started opening up to private sector and we also started diversifying our import of defence products from other countries as well. Since multi-vendor acquisitions are complex and time consuming the institutional deficiencies started coming to fore. India realised that it needs to formalise the procedures and reduce discretion amongst decision makers involved in defence procurements. The Public Accounts Committee of Parliament in its 187th Report in 1989 recommended that Government should draw up comprehensive guidelines relating to defence purchases and contracts. Later the Kargil War and consequent recommendations from Group of Ministers ensured we started working on policy aspects with a renewed purpose of strengthening our system. Director General of Defence Acquisition was created in MoD and detailed procedural guidelines called Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) were promulgated in 2002 (revised in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2020). Offsets were also introduced in 2005. Col. Manish Rana presented a causal loop with capability gaps as the main focus and steps taken to cover them since independence. How the various factors like indigenous solutions, public sector units, Global purchases etc affected our overall process were discussed in detail. He concluded that crux of the systems approach is to have a simple solution and gaining maximum advantage by identifying historical patterns and leverage points in causal loops. He highlighted that historically it has been seen that encouraging Research and Development and striking a balance between import and indigenous development may be the key to success of Defence Procurement as a System. Constant threat evaluation is required so that we don’t end up splurging on the things that we don’t require. Also he left the audience with the thought of what should be our focus, should we ‘Indigenise the past or learn lessons from past and try to indigenise the Future’. Thanking the speaker for a comprehensive analysis and the valuable insights, the Chair Col. Vivek Chadha called on Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, to share his remarks on the theme. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy congratulated the presenter for the insightful presentation and mentioned instances where India has done well in indigenizing defence systems. However, he raised the question of the barriers that have impeded India’s beginning in the realm of indigenised defence systems. Amb. Chinoy also mentioned that “Whenever India has decided to make something in India, it has done very good” and gave examples of the recently unveiled INS Vishakhapatnam as India’s success story. Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi (Retd) DDG, MP-IDSA highlighted that our services have been reluctant to go for indigenous weapons till recently. Maj. Gen. Bakshi said that one of the reasons is that technological gaps are still there. He mentioned that Covid-19 has given fillip to indigenisation by exposing dependencies on global supply chains. He also emphasized that we need to strike a balance between foreign and indigenous sources. The Panelist Samuel Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commented that there is a need for a re-emphasis on Atmanirbhar Bharat. He said that the whole point of indigenisation is to reduce the capacity gap so we need to measure how much of capacity gap can be filled. However, the speaker Col. Manish Rana disagreed that there is a reluctance in the Indian armed forces to adopt Indian weapons. The floor was then opened for the Q&A session which emphasised on the need to improve processes, and barriers to these improvements. Report prepared by Richa Tokas, Research Intern, Defence Economics & Industry Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.	Defence Economics & Industry
57th Foundation Day	November 15, 2021		1100 hrs	Other	Shri Rajnath Singh, Hon’ble Raksha Mantri and President MP-IDSA has kindly consented on this occasion to: (i) Unveil the plaque for renaming of the institute as “Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses”. (ii) Release MP-IDSA publications (iii) Inaugurate the Institute's 100 KVA Solar Power Plant on the rooftop (iv) Inaugurate the Open Air Gym on the Campus Press Release [+]				system/files/57-foundation-day-2011.jpg
Monday Morning Webinar on "ASEAN-India Summit: Outcome and Prospects"	November 08, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Event Report Dr Udai Bhanu Singh, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania made a presentation on “ASEAN-India Summit: Outcomes and Prospects” on 8 November, 2021. The session was moderated by Dr Arpita Anant. The panelists included Director-General Amb. Sujan Chinoy, Deputy Director-General Dr Bipin Bakshi, Col RP Singh and Mr Akash Sahu. It was attended by MP-IDSA faculty and other invitees. Executive Summary The session outlined the significance of ASEAN as a regional organization in the Indo-Pacific and its continued relevance despite emergence of newer security structures such as the QUAD or AUKUS. India and ASEAN align on the policy of rules-based order in the region and already cooperate on a number of areas including supply chains, energy, climate, disaster management and skill development. There is a need to strengthen these engagements and focus on economic and business ties between the two regions by providing a boost to infrastructure on both sides and connectivity. The shared values between India and ASEAN may be complemented with shared growth and development, which may be useful in maintaining regional balance of power. Dr Singh spoke on India’s relations with ASEAN and the recently concluded ASEAN-India summit. He explained India’s position of commitment to ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific. Given the uncertainty that has arisen due to ASEAN’s inability to take prompt action on the Myanmar crisis, many have been skeptical of ASEAN’s relevance as a formidable regional organization. However, India’s policy of engaging with ASEAN must not be driven by such skepticism since despite a lack of consensus on certain issues, ASEAN nations think alike on number of other fronts such as economy, trade, tourism, industry etc. India may continue to engage with ASEAN to enhance cooperation on these issues. The world has changed significantly from the times when ASEAN was formed in 1967, and today, the global order is being challenged by the aggressive rise of China. The Southeast Asian nations are closely interconnected with China economically and the gap in their military capacities in comparison to China is huge. Hence, the collective ASEAN identity has assumed much more importance than ever in successfully resisting China’s attempts to coerce member nations into ceding claims in the conflicted South China Sea territory. Maintaining good relations with India will also be favourable for ASEAN with a view to sustaining balance of power in the region. India and ASEAN can continue to build partnerships on the basis of their shared history, cultural linkages and political willingness from both sides. PM Modi’s speech at the recent summit was indicative of India’s interest in deepening engagements with ASEAN, especially in vaccine production. He also laid focus on the shared values between the two regions and cooperative efforts in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Security for All and Growth in the Region (SAGAR) and Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) are India-led initiatives aimed at improving regional maritime security. It has considerable scope for ASEAN to be involved for comprehensive joint efforts. There is also much scope for strategic alignment for India and ASEAN. The ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific, released in 2019, is the organization’s major step to realizing a common vision for Indo-Pacific with a rules-based order and freedom of navigation. India and ASEAN can work to reduce the gaps in development and cooperate in areas such as pharmaceuticals. India is part of many forums with ASEAN like East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM+), which has allowed it to better understand the region’s security issues. India is also engaged with ASEAN on areas of non-traditional security such as fast-changing climate and protection of the region’s rich biodiversity. The year 2022 will be ASEAN-India year of friendship. It will also be the year for Cambodia’s chairmanship of the organization. Cambodia has developed close relations with China over the years and in the year of its last chairmanship of ASEAN in 2012, had pushed Beijing’s agenda in context to South China Sea issue. India’s engagement with ASEAN, and particularly Cambodia, may be observed carefully with regard to developments on the South China Sea conflict. Summarizing the presentation, Dr Anant underlined the increasing importance of minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific and the need for India and ASEAN to maintain a robust relationship. The DG complimented Dr Singh for the presentation and shared his views on India-ASEAN relations. He pointed out that economics and infrastructure is where the competition lies when it comes to Southeast Asia. There has been a tendency in India to focus on civilizational linkages with the ASEAN region at the cost of developing business and trade connectivity. This may be problematic given the fast pace of Beijing’s ingress into the region with grand plans like BRI. Despite India’s cultural and religious linkages with countries in Southeast Asia, there has been less than expected convergence on issues of strategic importance due to overarching economic influence of China. India should consider strengthening ties with ASEAN by allocating much greater resources for development of infrastructure between the two regions. The DDG observed that role of ASEAN has come under speculation due to its lack of effectiveness in dealing with some contentions issues, but nevertheless it remains one of the central pillars of stability in the region. He stressed that ASEAN centrality may continue to be the rule of thumb for multilateral forums in the Indo-Pacific region. He raised a query about India’s connectivity projects in its northeastern region with Myanmar, and the progress of the Kaladan Multimodal transport route. Dr Singh clarified that challenges remain for India’s two flagship projects. One is the ambitious Kaladan multi-modal connectivity project which links Zorinpui in Mizoram with Myanmar’s Sittwe port in the Rakhine state, and the other is the Trilateral Highway between Moreh (in Manipur, India) and Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar. One predominant challenge is the lack of infrastructural development within India’s northeast and within the border regions of Myanmar. For the project to gain pace, it is crucial that connectivity within Northeast is strengthened speedily. Another reason is instability in the Rakhine state due to the Rohingya issue. It may be difficult to register progress as long as violence continues in areas of Rakhine critical to the Kaladan project. Some concerns were raised on India’s approach to ASEAN, especially as member states themselves are of varying opinions on recent security developments such as AUKUS. It was discussed that this may be primarily due to differing relationships with China. Vietnam has taken a softer approach to AUKUS while Indonesia and Malaysia have expressed concerns. It was also agreed that India may carefully observe role of large powers in the region such as Russia and the US. On RCEP, it was acknowledged that not signing the agreement in the first go was being seen internationally as a missed opportunity for India as it would be excluded from a vast free trade zone. Given some domestic restraints and pressure, India could not sign the agreement and may revisit if some of its reservations could be addressed. A beginning has to be made by revisiting the terms of the ASEAN-India FTA. India must also continue to increase cooperation with ASEAN on supply chains resilience as the COVID-19 has exposed the vulnerabilities of the present logistics. Such cooperation may be extended to areas such as energy, given India’s vast potential for solar energy production. Report prepared by Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-IDSA	South East Asia and Oceania	Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), ASEAN Summit
Monday Morning Webinar on Climate Summit: Taking Stock	November 16, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha Centre Coordinator Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses spoke on the topic "Climate Summit: Taking Stock" at the Monday Morning Webinar (held on Tuesday) on 16th November, 2021. The webinar was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Centre Coordinator, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre. Deputy Director General, and members of the institute attended the webinar. Executive Summary The impacts of climate change are being felt in every sphere. With rising temperatures and the world dangerously hurtling towards thresholds limits of 1.5°C to 2°C, there has been an urgent need to deal with the situation. The recently held COP 26 in Glasgow aimed to address climate emergency with set of rules and obligations for states. Various issues such as climate finance, nationally determined contributions, ‘phasing out’ and ‘phasing down’ of coal and fossil fuels, deadlines for net-zero emissions and much more were discussed. Detailed Report The chair, Dr. Nayan highlighted the many newly emerged ‘terms’ and ‘ambiguities’ during the COP 26 summit and asked the speaker to enlighten the audience with these terminologies. He also evoked the speaker to contextualize climate change before analyzing the joint statement made at COP 26. In his opening remarks, Dr. Sinha emphasized that climate change is well and truly an emergency and the world is grappling on how to deal with it, mitigate it and more importantly, how to adapt to climate change. These as the speaker explained remain highly contested ever since the signing of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. Commenting on the UNFCCC, Dr. Sinha mentioned that it is a multilateral treaty styled as framework convention in which the parties acknowledge the existence of a problem (climate change) and commit to cooperative actions. It was framed in such a manner that as the convention evolves, it would move towards a series of protocols and agreements that would make it more progressive, and then finally an acceptance of stringent obligations would come into force. The Conference of Parties (COP) to UNFCC is the apex decision-making body that takes decisions and lays out pathways to deal with climate change implications. Successive COP summits since 1995, as the speaker explained, has seen a convergence towards climate obligations. Dr. Sinha then gave a conceptual, intellectual and epistemological understanding of climate change. He mentioned that humanity is currently living in an informal geological epoch of Anthtopocene, in which human activities directly and indirectly has altered the entire composition of the global atmosphere and has significantly impacted the climate ecosystem. He further mentioned that the developed countries, in particular, have, despite the evidences, been in denial of their high per capita emission trajectory that they have consciously undertaken since the post-industrial revolution. Talking about the colonial projects of resource extraction and colonization of landscape by the Europeans, particularly the Dutch and the British in the 17th and 18th centuries, Dr. Sinha reminded the audience of the colonial powers destructive strategies that massively transformed the landscapes for control and profit. He also mentioned that the world has inherited and become habitual to unsustainable extraction and consumption of resources that is justified through development, comfort and poverty eradication. The speaker categorically stated that if the world needs to look at the future and has to limit the global temperature rise between 1.5° C to 2°C, then the entire system of production, management and governance needs to be transformed. This also includes changes in behavior, consumption pattern and lifestyle alteration. Commenting on the nature of statements made by world leaders at COP summits, Dr. Sinha observed that some are profound while some are business-as-usual but some remarkably transformational. He categorized Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements at COP 26 as transformational as other world leaders failed to make any big impression. Interestingly, the speaker highlighted Indira Gandhi’s sensational speech at the United Nations Conference on the Human Environmental (UNCHE) in 1972 in Stockholm, in which she mentioned, “are not poverty and need the greatest polluter?” He said that this statement is rightly being recalled even today by Indian climate negotiators. He clearly underlined that the poor matter and, therefore, development is the key for India. While the climate challenges are unique the politics around it is familiar. Explaining this Dr Sinha observed that the climate summits are not alien to linkage politics and power dynamics and has often seen realignment of forces and groupings to emphasize respective countries needs and requirements. It is for this reason that the semantics of the final text of the COP summits are intensely contested. He cited the example of India-China insistence to ‘phase down’ rather than ‘phase out’ of coal in the final text draft of COP 26 summit. The speaker thereon enlightened the audience to the overall acceptance of climate science which he noted is influencing the politics to search for possibilities. He quoted, ‘if politics is the art of possible, science is the art of soluble’. Focusing on the key elements of the COP 26 Glasgow, Dr. Sinha highlighted the following: A stronger action to achieve 1.5° C limit. Nations to strengthen their climate action plans and nationally determined contributions (NDC). To ‘phase down’ the uses of unabated coal power and ‘phase out’ inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Developed countries were asked to double the finance for adaptation by 2025 from the 2019 levels. An updated time till 2023 has been given to developed countries to fulfil their commitment of releasing promised $100 billion climate fund to developing countries. Developing countries like India are allowed to use carbon credits for meeting their first NDC targets. Developed countries can buy carbon credits to meet its own emission reduction targets, till 2025. Focusing on Prime Minister Modi’s Panchamrit at COP 26, Dr. Sinha firmly believed that India’s intention has been to be part of the solution and not the problem and therefore the mixture of five nectar elements of India’s climate action is extremely noteworthy. This raises India’s credibility as a climate-conscious country and proves India’s determination and value of commitment to climate action. The key elements of Panchamrit was then explained: India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. India will meet 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030. India will reduce the total projected carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes from now till 2030. Till 2030 India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 per cent. Finally, by the year 2070 India will achieve the target of net-zero emissions. Dr. Sinha emphasized that India is now the driver of climate change narrative, unlike the previous times when India was seen as climate denier. He mentioned that India’s actions are immediate (2020-2030) unlike many countries including EU who have made future net-zero targets the mantra. it is the current decade itself that defines those. Finally, in his concluding remarks Dr. Sinha mentioned that it is important to note that given all the difficulties that prevail, hope will always remain in bringing changes that the world requires in near future but hope needs to be backed by deeds and actions and not mere pledges. Thanking Dr. Sinha for his enlightening lecture, the chair made several critically important comments. Dr. Nayan mentioned that currently, the climate summit is moving away from the semiotic rhetorical structure to a more norm building process. He talked about climate realignment that is taking place and critically highlighted the role of OPEC countries (currently led by Russia) in the climate debate and argued that these countries still remains the custodian of the world’s fossil fuels and how these oil producing countries respond and shape the climate change debate will be interesting to observe. Comments and observations from the participants followed thereon: Bipandeep Sharma commented on the issue of sea-level rise and its impact on the small island territories and states in the Indian Ocean Region. Dr. Nihar Nayak observed that COP26 was an action-oriented summit. Referring to all the historical pledges made by the developed countries, he highlighted that the developing countries are very dissatisfied regarding the unmet climate commitments of the developed countries. He also highlighted the number of groups that emerged within the countries at COP summits and thereon mentioned a significant transition from climate mitigation to climate adaptation in COP 26 summit. He further highlighted the number of agreements signed at COP 26 some of which included methane emission reductions, reduction in deforestation and transitions to net-zero carbon emissions. Finally, commenting on India’s position on COP 26, Dr. Nayak mentioned that COP 26 is basically a commitment and a collective responsibility that each state needs to take. Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay in his remarks highlighted India’s position on climate change. He mentioned that much of the bulk of carbon emission has been led by the developed world. He asserted that India being the 7th largest country, is barely responsible 3 per cent of emissions that take place. He mentioned that India is far ahead of developed countries in reducing carbon emissions in terms of the solar alliance, afforestation and renewable energy. Capt. Anurag Bisen (Indian Navy) mentioned that the Glasgow Deal fails to hold into account the developed countries commitment to climate financing. He also asserted that there has been a general tendency to shift the climate narrative against India in the climate summit but India has maintained its firm stance. Dy. Director General Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), gave his observations and highlighted that with the rising temperatures and sea-level rise most of the island territories would be submerged underwater in times to come. He also highlighted glacier melt and breaking away of massive as a reflection of climate urgency. Commenting on the role of the Indian Army and its contributions to address the issue of climate change, Maj. Gen. Bakshi asserted that a lot has changed in the last 20 years. He underlined several afforestation initiatives by the army and a significant transition from coal and kerosene-based heating systems (at higher altitudes along the India-China and India-Pakistan border) to LPG based heating system. Question and Answers. In his response, Dr. Sinha re-emphasized on the role of science and technology and its interface with climate change. Finally, Dr. Sinha mentioned that the world can have different pathways to deal with climate change but the overall vision is quiet clear that climate change is an emergency. Dr. Sinha concluded that targets are still achievable provided pledges turn to deeds, it requires a collective action of states but more importantly a change of mindset of western developed countries. Key Takeaways: Climate change is now an emergency and needs immediate collective action of states. In successive COP summits since 1995, an upward graph of stringent obligations have been employed to the framework of convention. Humanity is currently living in a geological epoch of Anthtopocene, the roots lie in high per capita emission trajectory of the developed countries. There has been a series of realignment of forces between states at COP summits. India-China’s insisted on ‘phase down’ rather than ‘phase out’ of coal in the final text of COP 26 summit. COP 26 has asked countries to ‘phase down’ the uses of unabated coal power and ‘phase out’ inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Developed countries have been given the timeline 2023 to deliver on their commitment of promised $100 billion climate fund to developing countries. India has committed to its own approach of ‘Panchamrit' to address climate change. *************** Report prepared by Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.	Non-Traditional Security	Climate Change

Pages

Top