Session II: Regional Situation: Central and East Asia

Chair: Lt Gen (retd) Ravi Sawhney, Distinguished Fellow, VIF

Speakers:

• Sergey Chugrov, Editor in Chief, Political Studies (POLIS) Journal, Brig. (retd)
• Vinod Anand, Senior Fellow, VIF, New Delhi
• Rukmani Gupta, Associate Fellow, IDSA

Sergey Chugnov’s presentation focused on Russo-Japanese Relations and International Situation in East Asia. He said that the territorial disputes between Russia and Japan had impacted the bilateral relationship and as a result mistrust and lack of confidence had set in. There have been several attempts towards revival of the Joint Declaration of 1956. However, even after the Putin Koizumi meet on the sidelines of APEC in 2004 failed to resolve the deadlock and the situation persists as it was.

Now the new generation is not willing to bargain on the issue of land as repeatedly seen through opinion polls, so no Russian President can sell this issue domestically without negative consequences politically. As a consequence, Japanese are becoming restless on the issue. Japan and Russia need to learn from other examples where land was given up in order to ordain enduring peace and cooperation. He cited Sinai Peninsula deal between Israel and Egypt as one of the examples where peace was achieved by giving up land rights.

Other ways in which the relations could improve according to Sergey Chugnov included 1) expansion of economic cooperation, 2) if China becomes even stronger and aggressive player in the region then Russia and Japan would have a reason to cooperate, 3) If there were an attack on Iran then Russian oil would become more attractive for Japan and others in the region paving way for improved relations and that could reinitiate the territorial dialogue.

Brig (retd) Vinod Anand spoke on the subject of Indian Perspective on Af-Pak Situation. He highlighted a couple of important developments in the recent past in this region. First the US Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement was signed earlier this month. This granted Afghanistan the status of major non-NATO ally. Second is the continued focus on Taliban and the idea is to include Taliban if it is not aligned with al Qaeda. Also, the Agreement includes an important clause on assistance in case of an external threat. Amidst all this, Brig (Retd) Anand mentioned that there is little prospect of peace post NATO withdrawal. NATO forces will withdraw during the next Presidential elections in Afghanistan. Already major political killings have begun. What worries India is that it has been kept out of major multilateral initiatives on Afghanistan due to sinister efforts of some of the actors.

In this context he made several observations regarding the peace process. These included 1) India prefers peaceful, pluralistic and democratic Afghanistan, 2) Reconciliation process in not in good shape as the space for negotiated settlement has narrowed, 3) reconciliation must happen within three clauses; giving up arms, ending of cooperation with other groups and recognition of the supremacy of the constitution, 4) It is important to develop army and other security and justice agencies at the same time.

Speaking on China’s Relations with East Asia Rukmani Gupta argued that national interest, understood via concepts of China being a developmental state, a trading state and also a politically alienated state in the post Tiananmen era, guide China’s relations with countries in East Asia. She argued that to some extent these remain operational even today. China has shown accommodative approach towards East Asia under the principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit and cooperation based on equality and prosperity. Its good neighbourhood policy is an attempt to answer the China threat thesis and from here follow the concepts of Harmonious world, democratisation of international relations, justice and prosperity, diversity and tolerance and peaceful resolution of international conflicts.

China has focused on strengthening bilateral ties by de-linking economic relations from political differences. By this it has created constituencies that have a stake in Chinese growth. Multilateralism has been adopted to dilute perceived US hegemony and to promote multipolarity and also to showcase China as a responsible power.

While it has achieved economic success and become largest trading partner for all the countries there have been some failures in political and security sectors. There is a contradiction between its economic engagement and political mistrust. Incidents at sea have increased and US has reentered the region through its pivot strategy. In short this contradiction between developmental state and great power aspiration creates an uneasy situation.

Highlights from Questions and Answers Session

• Russia-Japan islands dispute is different from that between Russia and Japan. First, the islands in case of China was sparsely inhabited which made the agreement easy. Second, there is no need for a bilateral Russia Japan peace treaty since both countries have largely managed peaceful relations despite the islands dispute.
• There is domestic opposition to Putin at the moment with all the protests. He will not be able to take any unpopular decisions in the present context. Psychologically, Russians are not ready to lose any land after the experience of the Soviet collapse.
• Taliban spillover into India is a threat created and perpetuated by Pakistan. Pakistan would be affected much before and more than India by any such spillover. India can generally strengthen its security apparatus in the meantime.
• Russia India cooperation on Afghanistan is possible. It can be discussed bilaterally before taking it to multilateral level. However Russia does not think that Pakistan is an obstacle to peace in Afghanistan.
• India and Russia should discuss Iran and try to negotiate peace in the region.
• Russia will not participate militarily inside Afghanistan at any point in near future. Training programs are part of its international responsibility.
• China remains a developmental state as far as energy is concerned while in case of multilateralism it tends to behave like a power state.

Report prepared by Avinash Godbole, Research Assistant, IDSA