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Ankur asked: What is the probability of success of a attack on Taiwan by PLA in coming decade or so?

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  • Jagannath P. Panda replies: I don’t think the PLA would be really plotting for an attack on Taiwan in coming times. Currently, the Cross-Strait ties are at their best after the KMT’s victory in Taiwan in last general election. China would like to consolidate this trend, instead of planning for an attack. Since the day Ma Ying-Jeou’s party has come to power in Taiwan, Cross-Strait ties have improved a lot, and the normal public discussion in Taiwan is to maintain the ‘status-quo’, and improve bilateral relations with mainland China instead of advocating for ‘independence’. In fact, the Taiwanese are progressively realizing the implications of ‘Rise of China’ in global politics today; particularly in economic terms. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed recently between China and Taiwan is indicative of this. For its part, the Chinese government is happy to see TaiwanChina. For Chinese political leaders, the integration of Taiwan with mainland China is one of the top long-term foreign policy objectives. The latest ECFA is seen as a prelude to the peaceful unification process in the longer term. Many Chinese leaders and experts feel that ‘unification’ with Taiwan is just a matter of time, and they could achieve this task without really using force or plotting an attack. ‘Peaceful unification’ is a long-term strategy in Chinese foreign policy dialogue. That would also help China to consolidate its image as a ‘responsive and responsible’ power at many levels, especially when the PRC aims to become a super power.

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