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Prabhu Chintala asked: Why is there a sudden increase in the terror attacks in J&k? What message Pakistan and its military-militant establishment are trying to pass?

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  • Vivek Chadha replies: The spate of terror attacks in the recent past has taken place not only in J&K, but also in the neighbouring state of Punjab, as evident from the Gurdaspur terror strike. A number of reasons could be ascribed to these strikes. First, Pakistan is confronted with a new government in India, which has clearly announced a more robust approach to Pakistani misadventures, both along the Line of Control (LoC) and inside India. This is evident from the stance adopted against violations along the LoC and the International Border in J&K since June 2014. While Pakistan was clear about the levels of tolerance of the previous government, the same is possibly being probed with regard to the present government through these attempts. Second, as Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched by the Pakistan Army in North Waziristan in June 2014 enters into its final stages, it could be relieving a degree of pressure from the army. This may well have emboldened them to step up their proxy war against India. Third, Pakistan also seems to have been emboldened by the thaw in its relations with the new government in Kabul, which is seeking its assistance in facilitating direct talks with the Quetta Shura of the Afghan Taliban. Fourth, there has been a dip in the level of infiltration from across the LoC in recent years. Pakistan is desperate to increase it by applying pressure along different areas in an attempt to diffuse the attention of the Indian security forces. Fifth, Pakistan’s military establishment has been upset about the Ufa joint statement. Through these terror strikes, the army clearly wants to demonstrate that it is they who call the shots when it comes to defining the policy towards India and that the civilian government cannot afford to put Kashmir issue on the back burner.

    Posted on September 04, 2015