Nazarbayev wins April 3 Presidential election; Kazakhstan plans to export gas through state operator; Almaty to halt additional development at Kashagan for three years; Almaty to reserve uranium to last a century;
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    • Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan A. Nazarbayev won re-election by 95.5% - ushering in a third decade in power. Reports noted a turnout of 89.9% at the polling stations. The Chairman of the Central Election Commission Kuandyk Turgankulov announced that Nazarbayev's opponents Zhambyl Akhmetbekov - gained 1.4% of the vote, Mels Yeleussizov - 1.2% and Gani Kassymov - 1.9%. The observers of the Turkic-speaking Countries Parliamentary Assembly (TURKPA), Muratbek Imanaliyev, head of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Observers' Mission and Yulia Lyovochkina, Head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Observation Mission said the elections fully met with democratic standards.1 However, Daan Everts, the head of the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODHIR), reported widespread ballot-box stuffing and that people all over Kazakhstan had been forced to vote. He said, "We were struck by reports from all over the country about undue pressure on people to vote, which of course could explain the spectacularly high turn out”.2

    On gas exports, according to reports, Kazakhstan is considering a new law that would require all gas produced in the country to be exported through a sole state operator. Vice-Minister of Oil and Gas Lyazzat Kiinov said that under the proposed law, foreign-led energy consortiums such as TengizChevroil and Chinese companies will not be permitted to directly export the gas they produce. The gas will be sold to the national operator, which is yet to be identified, at a wholesale price who in turn would export it.3

    In the meanwhile, Kazakhstan is considering a three-year halt to work on the main phase of the super-giant Kashagan oil field development as international oil companies Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil fight to convince the country's oil ministry to back a simplified design which would slash costs by $18 billion to $50 billion. The Kazakhs are considering shelving the new simplified design, and keeping the field producing at its initial rate of 375,000 barrels per day (bpd) for at least three years, after which the NCOC consortium could use a greater understanding of the geology to produce a better design for the second phase, when production is expected to hit 1.5 million bpd. This delay could push the start of full production from the field well into the next decade, making it all but impossible for Shell and its partners to make an acceptable profit before the contract expires in 2037.4

    Reports noted that Kazakhstan plans to put in reserve enough uranium to last the country into the next century, Vladimir Shkolnik the chief of Kazatomprom, state-owned nuclear holding company, said in an interview on April 5. Kazatomprom plans to boost its reserves of uranium to as much as 2.8 million tons from the current level of 1.9 million tons. As there will be demand from countries operating nuclear reactors or those planning to build them, Kazakhstan will continue with its uranium outputs. To drive the point home on demand for uranium, Shkolnik said a booming China plans to have 150 nuclear reactors in operation by 2030 needing 33,000 tons of uranium per year.5

    Also, Kazakhstan will launch 200 new projects costing an estimated $10.5 billion this year as part of its Industrialization Map policy, the country’s deputy Prime Minister Aset Issekeshev said at an international mining Minex Central Asia 2011 forum recently. Industrialization Map was created in 2009 to be the development strategy for 2010-2011. The strategy called for 294 projects in total, which will create 161,000 jobs throughout the country and cost the state $55 billion. The annual forum is held to stimulate investment and business opportunities in Kazakhstan’s mining sector, as well as the mining sectors in other states in the region.6

    Meanwhile, Kyrgyz parliamentary speaker Omurbek Babanov met with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan to discuss deepening security and economic relations on a three-day visit during April 7-9. Babanov told the Chinese official that Kyrgyzstan considers China to be its top foreign policy priority while also thanking the East Asian nation for its support to aid Kyrgyzstan in rebuilding. China while professing interest to increase cooperation in a variety of fields, including finance, agriculture, transportation and security, agreed to provide Kyrgyzstan with a $5 million grant to help the Central Asian country rebuild the south, which sustained substantial infrastructure damage during the ethnic riots of June 2010.7

    According to reports, the Kyrgyz parliament in the coming week will formally address the idea of joining a customs union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev has shown his keen support and has made two trips to Moscow as prime minister to solidify ties between the two countries.8 Meanwhile, Kyrgyz-Russian joint venture company set up to supply jet fuel to Kyrgyzstan, including to the U.S. Manas base transit center, began operations on 1st of April. Gazpromneft-Aero-Kyrgyzant started supplying jet fuel to the Manas International Airport marking its first fueling of a civilian aircraft. This will be the first company within CIS to refuel both civilian and military aircraft based at the Transit Center. Manas Air Base houses a fleet of American air tankers that refuel U.S. warplanes patrolling the skies of nearby Afghanistan and serves as a transportation hub for around 50,000 troops.9

    In other developments in the region, Tajikistan continues to struggle with the issue of continuous power supply. As the Nurek reservoirs have dropped levels, Tajik households are facing a new round of electricity restrictions. The Vakhsh River is significantly lower than it has been in the past, with an inflow of only 250-260 cubic meters per second. This time last year the inflow was 400-450 cubic meters.10

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