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| Title | Date | Author | Time | Event | Body | Research Area | Topics | File attachments | Image |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report of Monday Morning Meeting: Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific | November 06, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
A delegation from The Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), Arlington, Virginia, participated in the Monday Morning Meeting held on 6 November 2023 at 1000h in Room No. 005. Mr. Robert Hein, Senior Executive and Director, Policy and Plans, U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet, and Dr. Satu Limaye, Senior Advisor, CNA, spoke on “Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific”. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, chaired the Session. Other members of the delegation, Mr. Dean Vaughn, Staff Member, Policy and Plans, US Navy Pacific Fleet and Ms. Tamara Hemphill, Acting Director, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, CNA, along with the scholars from MP-IDSA, enriched the discussion. Executive SummaryThe Asia-Pacific paradigm was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, the Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, the Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while the Indo-Pacific is more democratic. The US’ approach towards China has changed from cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. Chinese belligerent actions in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. The US seeks a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. There is a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. There is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Detailed ReportAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy set the context for discussions. He said that the Indo-Pacific region is of great relevance to India and the United States (US). However, earlier, Asia-Pacific has been in vogue. The Post-World War II Japanese economic growth, the emergence of the Asian tigers, and the consistent high Chinese economic growth facilitated by the US gave rise to the concept of the Asia-Pacific. Going beyond financial calculations, the physical presence of the US was an essential factor in shaping the Asia-Pacific concept. Washington also invested heavily in the region. The US’ interests spanned across the political, military and economic domains. Thus, the Asia-Pacific was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while Indo-Pacific is more democratic. Amb. Chinoy stated that the US is not an extra-regional player but has a physical presence, and an economic and strategic role in the Indo-Pacific. The US presence in the region was one of the most important reasons for the economic rise of Asia. Amb. Chinoy further stated that if China was championing the cause of multipolarity at the international level, the same should also be the case in Asia. Speaking about the Quad, Amb. Chinoy held that India attached great importance to the Quad, which is not a military partnership. There is an added advantage of having a multilateral Malabar exercise. He ended his introductory remarks by asking whether the Quad or Malabar could transform into an alliance in the future. He answered the question in affirmation and commented that China would determine the future of the Quad. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy invited Mr. Robert Hein to make his presentation. Mr. Robert Hein spoke about the US Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept, and changing dynamics in the region vis-à-vis China. He said that the US emphasised a Free and Open Indo-Pacific so that there would be unimpeded regional trade leading to the region's economic development. Every country has a right to protect the integrity of their respective territorial waters. Talking about a radical change in regional security dynamics, the Speaker informed the audience how the US approach towards China changed from one of cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. However, China continued the unabashed militarisation of the South China Sea. Beijing started putting conditions on every form of cooperation to reduce competition. Mr. Hein, further affirmed that Chinese belligerent action in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. He corroborated his claim by giving the example of the Philippines. Manila wanted to do away with the US forces from its territory. However, Chinese bellicose behaviour in the South China Sea forced the Philippines to renew a bilateral agreement with the US. Further, the Quad has grown enormously due to China’s maligned behaviour. Mr. Hein complained that China had cut off all communication with the US, which was a bad sign for any bilateral relationship. Talking about India-US relations, the Speaker observed that the relationship was in good shape and growing well in multiple areas including defence, technology, new practices and procedures. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. He also spoke about the US vision of a thousand-ship navy being realised with the help of its partners and allies as a collective endeavour. He cautioned the audience that the conflict over Taiwan would be a great blow to the global economy and may lead to another great depression. Dr. Satu Limaye agreed with the previous Speaker that China had done an excellent job in strengthening the US alliances. He held the India-US Partnership in good stead and said the US alliances were becoming more critical. Regarding de-risking and decoupling from China, Dr. Limaye remarked that the picture was more precise and the US was weighing its dependencies with China about trade, investment and high technology. Simultaneously, the US sought a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. Dr. Limaye touched upon the economic aspect of the US-China relationship. He observed a shift in China’s economic relations with the region, especially with the US, Japan and Europe. On the one hand, China is trying to diversify ties as a part of broader decoupling. On the other hand, the US has increased interactions with its allies and partners in the economic domain. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework were helping the regional economic order to become more multilateral, open and engaged. The Speaker noted a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. Rather than focusing on the big regional multilateral initiatives like the East Asia Summit, the US focused on initiatives such as the Chip 4 Alliance, Quad and Critical Mineral Partnership. Thus, there is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others. Amb. Chinoy observed that there was no need for the US to have a thousand-ship navy due to its technological superiority over China. He noted that India was not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as there was a moratorium on expanding the grouping. Regarding China’s Malacca Dilemma, Amb. Chinoy commented that all countries depend on the Malacca Strait for their trade and energy needs. Amb. Chinoy also raised a few questions regarding the US’s reaction in case China attempts to forcefully seek reunification with Taiwan. He also inquired about the US position in case China threatened the Philippines’ sovereignty over its island territories. In response to the observations raised by Amb. Chinoy and MP-IDSA scholars, Mr. Hein stated that China would not commit to any adventure over Taiwan because President Xi lacks confidence in his armed forces. Additionally, he has several domestic issues that would deter him from taking Taiwan by force. The US has allies and partners in the region, thus preventing China from doing a misadventure over Taiwan. Talking about the role of domestic politics in decision-making vis-à-vis a contingency in the region, the Speaker further said that in a war-like situation, the US would unite and respond to the situation wholeheartedly. Regarding Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), the Speaker said that the US does it against friends and adversaries alike and will continue to do so in accordance with International Law. Mr. Hein said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was important for the US. Following a rich and insightful discussion, Amb. Chinoy brought the meeting to a close. Report is prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre. |
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| Talk on the theme "Tanzania’s Foreign Policy and India-Tanzania Relations" | October 04, 2023 | Talk |
Mr. Avit A. Chami, India-Africa Security Fellow, spoke on “Tanzania’s Foreign Policy and India-Tanzania Relations” at a Roundtable held at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi on 4 October 2023. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy chaired the meeting and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive SummaryMr. Avit A. Chami's presentation highlighted the deep historical and cultural connections between India and Tanzania, showcasing Tanzania's economic indicators, political landscape under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and its reliance on agriculture and strategic trade networks. Chami outlined potential areas for collaboration, spanning healthcare, defence, education, and trade, while emphasising the thriving Indian community in Tanzania. The presentation underscored the bilateral commitment to strengthening ties, acknowledging challenges, and outlining government measures to fortify the relationship. Overall, it emerged that the India-Tanzania relationship is positioned for mutual growth, promising a bright future ahead as both nations are among the fastest-growing economies globally and in Africa. Detailed ReportThe Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy introduced the Speaker and emphasised the critical role Tanzania plays in India's diplomatic and economic engagement. Drawing attention to Tanzania's political stability, demographic advantages, and its function as a gateway to landlocked African nations, he highlighted its potential as an economic powerhouse in Africa. The country's abundant biodiversity and its status as an Indian Ocean littoral state add to its significance in India's Indian Ocean strategy. He underscored that the visit by the Indian Chief of the Army Staff, along with prior high-level interactions, reflects a clear commitment to strengthening ties between the two nations. Mr. Avit A. Chami's presentation commenced with expressions of gratitude towards the Institute and the participants. In his presentation he delved into the deep historical and cultural connections between Tanzania and India. Mr. Chami highlighted Tanzania's strategic position on the East African Coast, setting the foundation for a broader discussion on the relationship between the two nations. Transitioning into the economic and cultural aspects, Mr. Chami emphasised the democratic leadership under President Dr. Samia Suluhu Hassan. He also showcased key economic indicators, including a GDP of $85 billion and a 5.7% growth rate, attributed to sectors like agriculture, tourism, mining, manufacturing, trade, and transit. The cultural diversity of Tanzania, with 120 tribes practicing various religions, and the prominence of Kiswahili as the national language were also highlighted. Talking about notable attractions, such as UNESCO Heritage Sites, pristine beaches in Zanzibar, and wildlife safaris, the Speaker painted a vivid picture of Tanzania's allure. Shifting focus to Tanzania's political landscape, Mr. Avit A. Chami delved into the democratic framework characterised by regular general elections occurring every five years. He explained the prevailing leadership structure, underscoring the central role played by the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party. Mr. Chami elucidated on the prominent figures guiding the government, with President Hassan making history as the first female president. Assisting President Samia in steering the nation are Vice President Dr. Philip Isdor Mpango and Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa, collectively forming an effective leadership team. In addition, Mr. Chami, highlighted agriculture as the backbone of Tanzania's economy and emphasised the pivotal role of trade, notably through the Port of Dar es Salaam. India is a major trading partner, receiving 22 percent of Tanzanian exports, while China dominates as the leading source for imports, particularly agricultural products, and clothing. Mr. Chami underscored Tanzania's limited industrial activities but noted its appeal for foreign direct investment (FDI), with China leading, followed by the USA, and India ranking as the third-largest source of FDI for the country. This succinct overview portrayed Tanzania's economic reliance on agriculture, a robust trade network, and strategic foreign investments. Building upon the foundational insights, Mr. Chami provided a more in-depth exploration of Tanzania's foreign policy, emphasising the significant influence of President Julius Nyerere. The trajectory of this policy, which initially centered on open diplomacy and anti-colonialism post-independence in 1961, underwent a transformative shift in 2001, towards economic diplomacy, prioritising foreign direct investment and fostering global partnerships. Over the years, Tanzania actively participated in regional and international initiatives, contributing notably to anti-colonial struggles in Africa and cultivating diplomatic ties, notably with India. The ongoing phase involves a meticulous review process, addressing pressing issues such as climate change and maritime security. Tanzania's commitment to global cooperation, technology, and investment, underscored by its dedication to human rights and equality, is evident. Actively engaging in diverse multilateral organisations, Tanzania positions itself as a significant player in the dynamic landscape of international relations. In its global engagement, India holds a distinctive position for Tanzania, with a relationship dating back to the 1960s rooted in a historical connection spanning 2,000 years through the Indian diaspora. Originating from trade facilitated by monsoons, this enduring connection is exemplified by the harmoniously integrated Indian community, known as Wahindi, an integral part of Tanzanian society akin to a tribe. Centered around the Indian Ocean, the connection is characterised by shared cultures, histories, and culinary traditions. Established in 1961, official diplomatic ties have fostered development cooperation, defense collaboration, economic partnerships, and strong people-to-people relations. The educational exchange has seen Tanzanian students benefit from Indian institutions, with the notable milestone of an IIT Madras branch in Zanzibar poised to enhance technological and educational capacities in the region. Mr. Chami also delved into potential areas for collaboration between India and Tanzania, emphasising the robust partnership already established across diverse sectors. In healthcare, Indian hospitals collaborate with Tanzanian counterparts in joint programs, specifically addressing critical issues such as health and sanitation. The pharmaceutical industry plays a significant role, contributing vaccines and medicines to bolster Tanzania's healthcare. Over two decades of support, including the Lines of Credit program, has seen India enhance water infrastructure in more than fifty Tanzanian cities. The longstanding defence and security cooperation, spanning six decades, encompasses joint exercises, maritime collaboration, and the exchange of military ties. This collaboration extends to personnel exchanges, with defence colleges facilitating knowledge sharing and training. Overall, the multifaceted collaboration exemplifies a comprehensive and mutually beneficial relationship between India and Tanzania. Furthermore, the collaboration between India and Tanzania has yielded notable achievements, particularly in defence and security. The Indian Navy's support along the eastern coast has been crucial, with recent joint defence cooperation meetings paving the way for a strategic five-year development roadmap. While current defence trade appears modest, the intent is to deepen cooperation in this sector. In terms of economic and trade ties, both nations share a healthy relationship. India continues to be a prominent market for Tanzanian agricultural products such as cashew nuts, pigeon peas, spices, avocados, and other commodities, constituting 22 per cent of Tanzanian exports. The introduction of direct flights between Dar es Salaam and Mumbai further facilitates business and people-to-people connections. In the midst of tough competition, India engages in trade amounting to $6.5 billion, navigating the challenges posed by the formidable market presence of China. Cultural integration is evident in shared activities like International Yoga Day, Kabaddi Day, and the blending of Bollywood and Bongowood in film industries. The Indian diaspora of over 60,000 in Tanzania actively contributes to business and cultural exchanges, while Tanzanians in India, primarily students, add to the dynamic intercultural landscape. The collaborative spirit is fostering a deepening bond between the two nations. Finally, Mr. Chami painted a vibrant picture of the thriving Indian community in Tanzania. Over the years, it has flourished, enjoying robust support from both the government and the local community. What sets the Indians apart is their reputation for reliability, distinguishing them from other foreign groups. Unlike some, they steer clear of selling counterfeit products, establishing a strong bond with consumers. Indian-owned hospitals play a crucial role in providing affordable and dependable healthcare, further strengthening community ties. Despite amicable relations, challenges persist, including limited awareness and competition from China, affecting the trade balance. The government has implemented measures to fortify ties with India, facilitating direct flights and introducing visa-on-arrival for Indians. The initiative to conduct trade in local currencies aims to streamline business even further. Future prospects extend across diverse sectors such as agriculture, extractives, tourism, and infrastructure. The overarching objective is to expand Indian influence beyond existing domains. In conclusion, India and Tanzania, both among the fastest-growing economies globally and in Africa respectively, are poised to reap the rewards of mutual growth, promising a bright future ahead. The Q/A SessionMs. Ruchita Beri, consultant at MP-IDSA's Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN (ALACUN) Centre, contributed valuable insights by posing questions and making remarks that delved into crucial aspects of Tanzanian foreign policy and the India-Tanzania relationship. Her inquiries explored the ongoing foreign policy review, the significance of core issues like blue economy and the Tanzanian diaspora, and India's broader relevance in Africa. Ms. Beri's remarks highlighted the depth of the India-Tanzania relationship, particularly in water management, and acknowledged the remarkable 84% implementation rate of India's development assistance. Dr. Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow at the ALACUN Centre, joined the discussion, expressing appreciation and raising pertinent questions and remarks. Dr. Mishra emphasised the strategic ties between India and Tanzania, recognising their significance due to proximity, religious ties, and evolving defence relations. He commended the recent Mini Defence Expo, suggesting its replication in other African countries. Dr. Mishra's inquiries into challenges faced by Indian companies in Tanzania, including land leasing issues, and the competitive dynamics with China winning tenders, highlighted key areas for exploration and improvement. In response Mr. Avit A. Chami said that he valued the informative discussion and addressed a few of the crucial issues brought up during the discussion. According to him, the ongoing review of Tanzanian foreign policy addresses critical issues, including climate change, negotiations, and dual citizenship, which has sparked significant debate. The concern is centered around potential security risks associated with offering citizenship to the diaspora. The President's recent acknowledgment of this issue and the consideration of adopting a special status for diaspora members reflect the complexity of this debate. Regarding India-Tanzania trade relations amidst Chinese competition, the Speaker highlighted untapped sectors like agriculture and tourism as significant opportunities for Indian companies. The comparison with Chinese influence underscores the need for a strategic and hybrid approach in sectors where India has a competitive advantage, such as defence and security. He acknowledged India's success in these sectors due to stability and well-organised exchanges but emphasised the importance of addressing concerns in other sectors for effective collaboration. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy expressed appreciation to the Speaker for sharing valuable insights, particularly those related to Tanzania's perspective. He said that these insights have significantly enriched the Institute's understanding of Africa. Ambassador Chinoy extended best wishes to Mr. Avit A. Chami and expressed anticipation for future interactions with him. The report has been prepared by Mohanasakthivel J., Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. |
Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN | India-Tanzania Relations, Tanzania | ||||
| Report of MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar: “Iran in the Emerging (Eur)Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power” | October 26, 2023 | Fellows' Seminar |
Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), presented her Fellow Paper on “Iran in the Emerging (Eur)Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power” at the MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar held on 26 October 2023. The Seminar was chaired by Professor Gulshan Dietl, former Professor, School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University. The External Discussants were Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, Centre for West Asian Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Senior Fellow (West and Central Asia), Tillotama Foundation. Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre and Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, were Internal Discussants. Director General of MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and scholars of the Institute attended the Seminar. Executive SummaryThree noteworthy trends delineate Iran’s emerging middle power behaviour. Firstly, there is a proactive involvement in Asian multilateralism, exemplified by active participation in regional institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Secondly, Iran employs an ideational strategy that leverages its civilisational identity and values as a foundation for nurturing an Asian regional security community. Thirdly, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively facilitating connections in transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by major powers, including China, Russia, and India. These trends collectively signify Iran’s role in shaping the geoeconomic landscape of (Eur)Asia. Detailed ReportIn his opening remarks, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy welcomed the Chair and the External and Internal Discussants. He emphasised the importance of Iran being a part of India’s close neighbourhood and how India’s Act West policy encapsulates geopolitical and civilisational relations. He stated that Iran has special significance in West Asian politics. Amb. Chinoy highlighted that Iran frequently remains in the news for one or other issues like being part of a long-drawn imbroglio in Yemen with the Houthi problem, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear postures, bilateral relations with the US, and peace and security in the Persian Gulf. He outlined the role of Iran in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). It was also noted that Iran has been a general outlier in the international system but gains a significant constituency when required. Its bilateral relations with India are mostly on a reciprocal basis. Amb. Chinoy recalled his tenure at the UN from 1992-1995 and specified that, particularly in 1994-95, Iran was instrumental in helping India counter Pakistan-backed human rights resolutions in Geneva. Introducing the topic, Dr. Deepika Saraswat highlighted the context of Iran’s return to a ‘Look East’ strategy and emerging middle power behaviour. She stated that Iran preferred Eastern partnerships over the West, advocating closer ties with neighbouring nations and collaboration with countries sharing common goals. As a Persian country, Iran desired to find a home in Asia to overcome identity isolation. Iran’s preference for the term “West Asia” over “Middle East” indicates this transformative paradigm. Dr. Saraswat further pointed out that Iran strategically channels its investments in Asia, forging alliances with rising powers such as China, India, and Russia. Iran is seeing growing convergence between East, Central, West and South Asian regional systems. Dr. Saraswat highlighted the significance of Iran’s outlook in the evolving geopolitical landscape where mega connectivity projects are seen cooperatively, considering it an opportunity. Iran has placed development-security connections and regional connectivity at the forefront of its regional cooperation initiatives. The Speaker outlined multiple definitions of middle powers to contextualise Iran’s position. Middle powers possess the military and strategic strength requisite to elicit support from great powers during peacetime. Although they may not emerge victorious against great powers in times of conflict, these middle powers can inflict disproportionate costs upon them. She articulated that being categorised as a middle power involves possessing specific capabilities, adopting a particular attitude, and asserting a distinct national identity. To analyse Iran’s behaviour, Dr. Saraswat used the concept of emerging middle powers, especially in the post-Cold War era context. Emerging middle powers possess substantial relative power advantages over their smaller neighbours. These nations manifest dissatisfaction with their current standing and aspire to carve an independent trajectory guided by their interests, values, and ambitions for regional and global influence. Notably, many of these middle powers have historical and cultural backgrounds that align with the concept of civilisational states. She highlighted that revisionist emerging middle powers actively seek to reshape the prevailing international order, often aligning themselves with revisionist great powers in pursuit of their objectives. Iran has positioned the “Look East” policy or “Asia orientation” as a central focus within incumbent Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s led foreign policy framework. The formalisation of Iran’s deepening engagement with Eur(Asia) was marked by its full membership approval in the SCO during the 21st summit, a development Dr. Saraswat identified as a significant milestone in Iran’s evolving regional strategy. Positioned as a middle power, Iran has demonstrated several key behaviours, as outlined by the speaker: Firstly, Iran has actively embraced “Asian multilateralism” by participating in regional institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Initially joining as an Observer in 2004, Iran applied for full membership in 2008, ultimately achieving it in 2023. Dr. Saraswat contextualised this Iranian initiative within the institutional balancing framework, replacing conventional military means with a focus on leveraging multilateral institutions to gain power and influence in world politics. Ebrahim Raisi’s address at the UNGA in 2023, envisioning a novel and equitable world order rooted in regional cooperation, was cited as evidence of Iran’s commitment to this approach. The Speaker noted that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, coupled with the subsequent takeover by the Taliban, has not only highlighted the diminishing influence of the US in shaping the regional order but has also triggered a realignment in the regional geopolitical landscape. Iran’s involvement in the 3+3 regional cooperation format to resolve problems of the South Caucasus without the interference of extra-regional and Western countries is a part of its regional diplomacy. Secondly, Iran has employed its civilisational identity and values to construct an ideational strategy to foster an Asian regional security community. Dr. Saraswat highlighted Iran’s practice of framing bilateral ties with Asian powers, including India and China, in civilisational terms. Iran’s leaders have offered a conception of Asia as comprising diverse civilisations and cultures, emphasising regional cultural and ideational autonomy and rejection of the Western normative universalism based on liberal democracy. The call for endogenous security and Asian unity by Iran was noted to align with the Chinese President’s ‘new Asian security concept,’ emphasising the leadership of Asians in Asian affairs. The Speaker also mentioned Iran’s effort toward displacing Turkiye’s ethnic-linguistic narrative of pan-Turkism. Thirdly, drawing from its notion of geographical centrality, Iran strategically positions itself as a geographic-civilisational “bridge,” actively connecting transcontinental connectivity initiatives spearheaded by China, Russia, and India. Iran considers itself a civilisational crossroad in the Silk Road narrative. The Speaker argued that Iran looks at the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with both optimism and fear as BRI proposes to address the development deficit but can have adverse geopolitical implications. BRI may lead to Russia-China’s ‘Great Game’ and can have implications for Iran’s transit potential and bargaining power in Central Asian energy markets. This role underscores Iran’s significance in facilitating broader regional cooperation and integration. Dr. Saraswat also emphasised Iran’s declared foreign-policy priority of developing friendly cooperative relations with Central Asian countries and its pivotal role as a ‘gateway’ in the INSTC. Furthermore, Iran’s ‘bridge’ role in projects such as BRI, the Eurasian Economic Union, and INSTC was underscored, emphasising the Iranian focus on the complementary nature of these initiatives rather than their competitive dynamics. Dr. Saraswat noted that Iran is actively articulating a conspicuous regional role in (Eur)Asia by promoting regional autonomy, aligning with the shared objectives of Russia and China. Notably, Iran’s observable effort is to enhance its geoeconomic ties with the three principal actors in the region, namely China, Russia, and India. This strategic engagement aims to mitigate the potential challenges of multipolar rivalry and the prospect of Chinese-led hegemonic regionalism. Prof. A. K. Ramakrishnan offered positive feedback on the paper, commending its logical argumentation and contribution to comprehending Iran’s (Eur)Asia policy. He suggested additional nuances to enhance the analysis, emphasising the need to highlight Iran’s quest for both strategic and regional autonomy. Encouraging the inclusion of major trends characterising emerging middle powers, he underscored the importance of considering major powers entering the geopolitical space as Iran navigates through it. The impact of sanctions and isolation on Iran’s economy, along with resulting constraints in foreign relations, particularly with the West, was noted. Prof. Ramakrishnan stressed the significance of contextualising Iran’s power positioning as an Emerging Middle Power within the context of its historical isolation. He also highlighted the guiding principles of Iran’s foreign policy, focusing on its revolutionary nature and the pursuit of a dignified existence. Further suggestions included exploring East-West dimensions, considering Iran’s call for unity and its role in the non-aligned movement within the paper. The importance of recognising Iran as an ideological state, with domestic politics playing a role in its ideological revivalism, was emphasised. The recommendation to include immediate neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, aimed at providing a more comprehensive understanding of Iran’s foreign relations. Prof. Ramakrishnan concluded by stating the paper connects conceptual aspects with empirical descriptions and acknowledged the paper’s strength lies in capturing the intricate dynamics of Iran’s foreign policy. Dr. Meena Singh Roy suggested that the author include a brief abstract and mention that the paper is part of a larger project. The need to clarify the theoretical focus in the title and introduce the hypothesis early on was emphasised. Dr. Roy commended the analytical rigour of the paper but recommended a reconsideration of subtitles for reader comprehension. Acknowledging the paper’s extensive use of primary references, she suggested supplementary readings for a practical understanding of Iran’s foreign policy. Dr. Roy highlighted Iran’s strategic adaptability and sophistication, emphasising the importance of understanding its use of strategic assets. She proposed exploring how the international system perceives Iran, particularly its acceptability in regional groupings like the SCO. Additionally, Dr. Roy called for a precise analysis to determine whether Iran has attained emerging middle power status. It was suggested that concepts like emerging middle power should be explained early in the paper, along with clarifying Iran’s narrative regarding (Eur)Asia due to the region’s vastness. Addressing Iran’s regional interests, she recommended specifying its focus on the INSTC over the Silk Route and assessing its aspirations for regional power status. Dr. Rajorshi Roy noted that the author has adeptly navigated the complexities of evolving issues, intricate power dynamics, and contestations within the paper. The incorporation of International Relations theories was noted as a strength, rendering the analysis more credible and nuanced in deciphering Iran’s role in (Eur)Asia. Dr. Rajorshi suggested expanding the section on emerging (Eur)Asian politics to include issues related to Central Asian countries, given their significant relevance. Additionally, he recommended examining whether Iran possesses the capacity to actualise its identity as a revisionist power and raised questions about whether Russia and China would relinquish space for Iran. Furthermore, Dr. Rajorshi underscored the importance of exploring the role of the SCO in the context of Eur(Asian) governance, considering it as a potential backbone in this regard. Dr. Jason Wahlang raised the issue of the possibility of China overtaking Russia in the region due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, citing the Chinese base in Tajikistan as an illustrative example. Dr. Wahlang emphasised the importance of assessing whether Iran could capitalise on these shifting dynamics in the long term. Additionally, he recommended delving into Iran-Turkiye relations, particularly in terms of civilisational connections and cultural aspects. Dr. Wahlang highlighted Iran’s role as a Caspian nation alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, suggesting that further exploration of this aspect would enhance the paper’s value. He also proposed addressing Iran’s focus on non-traditional security issues, specifically related to water, considering the Aral Sea and Amu Darya. Prof. Gulshan Dietl commenced her remarks with the poignant quote, “today is the best of times, and today is the worst of times,” emphasising Iran’s vulnerable position in its immediate neighbourhood. She recommended a clear definition of ‘(Eur)Asia,’ as it is integral to the paper’s title, and encouraged the author to provide her own interpretation of an emerging regional middle power. Prof. Dietl highlighted the relevance of using ‘West Asia’ based on its geographical placement, referencing Jawaharlal Nehru’s critique of ‘Middle East’ as a colonial term. Considering Iran’s global impact, Prof. Dietl acknowledged its significant energy resources in proximity to Central Asia but underscored the challenges arising from linguistic and religious differences with neighbouring countries. This isolation, she noted, sheds light on Iran’s support for entities like Hezbollah, Houthis, and the Palestinians. Prof. Dietl succinctly outlined challenges faced by Iran, including sanctions, which limit its foreign relations, domestic concerns over election outcomes, and controversies surrounding issues such as Hijab. She highlighted slogans reflecting domestic sentiments, such as “Not Gaza, Not Lebanon; I will die for Iran,” and observed Iran’s outreach to revisionist major powers like China and Russia. In the broader context of changing world order, Prof. Dietl emphasised the constraints faced by Iran, particularly domestic challenges, during a time when even the United Nations is under scrutiny. Q&A SessionThe Q&A session delved into various themes, encompassing Iran’s identity as a theological revolutionary state, the reliability of information about Iran on social media platforms, definitional and conceptual aspects of emerging middle power, the nuanced relationship between (Eur)Asia and the security order, the historical context of the Iranian revolution, Iran’s ideological positions in relation to other countries, and the constraints impeding Iran’s realisation of emerging middle power status. Dr. Saraswat addressed and responded to the comments and questions raised during this comprehensive discussion. This report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Technology Development Fund of DRDO: Challenges and Opportunities | October 23, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Arvind Khare, IDAS, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Technology Development Fund of DRDO: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 23 October 2023. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow and Coordinator of the Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting. Executive SummaryMr. Khare highlighted the crux of the Technology Development Fund (TDF) scheme, a flagship programme of the Ministry of Defence (MoD), being executed by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) for attaining self-reliance by promoting indigenously developed technologies and to further research and development culture in the private industries in India. Detailed ReportCol. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.) commenced the meeting by providing some insights on the TDF scheme and placed in context the issue of earmarking 25 per cent of Defence R&D budget for private industry and academia. Mr. Arvind Khare noted that the TDF scheme is a Grant - in - Aid programme and noted that it is a step towards Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence and empowering the defence research and development ecosystem through industrial participation. The presentation provided the chronology of the TDF scheme, the involvement of users in the TDF development process and the benefits of TDF to the industry. Mr. Khare then went on to detail the process involved in the flow of funds under the TDF scheme and the criteria for evaluating the projects under TDF. He specified some of the various projects awarded under the scheme, the success stories as well as business opportunities and the future of the TDF scheme. The presentation also enumerated aspects relating to raising fund limit for a TDF project from ₹10 crores to ₹50 crores and earmarking 25 percent Defence R&D budget for funding industry, startups, and academia. The presentation examined aspects relating to technology management and the DRDO. Mr. Khare ended his presentation by pointing out the constraints and challenges in the TDF scheme and suggested some policy insights to overcome those challenges. Questions and CommentsDiscussion in the Q&A session related to the success rate of projects by the DRDO under the scheme, learning of best practices from organisations like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States, and flagging of issues relating to scheme implementation, DRDO-private industry interactions, among other issues. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, began his remarks by complimenting the Speaker for his presentation on an important subject, and urged all the scholars in MP-IDSA to work more on areas concerning defence and technology. He pointed out that the issues that were discussed by the Speaker were very relevant to Atmanirbharta in Defence manufacturing. The Director General highlighted that it is important for the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), the private sector and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to have a greater technology focus as well as invest in indigenous R&D. The nature of technology development in the corporate sector role was also flagged, where incubation and innovation centres are established in promising and vital areas for commercial gains and larger public use. |
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| Fellows Seminar on "Iran and the Emerging (Eur) Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power" | October 26, 2023 | 1400 to 1630 hrs | Fellows' Seminar |
MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar on Thursday, 26 October 2023. The Venue is Seminar Hall 1, Second Floor. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, will present a Paper titled “Iran in the Emerging (Eur) Asian Order: Mapping the Rise of a Regional Middle Power.” Professor Gulshan Dietl, former Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University will Chair the Seminar and conduct the proceedings. The External Discussants for the Paper are Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, Centre for West Asian Studies, SIS, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Senior Fellow (West and Central Asia), Tillotama Foundation. The Internal Discussants are Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre and Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst with the West Asia Centre is the rapporteur. The Seminar will commence at 2.30 PM and end at 4.30 PM. |
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| Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Hamas Terrorist Attacks on Israel | October 16, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Hamas Terrorist Attacks on Israel” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 16 October 2023. Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive SummaryAnalysing the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 reveals a strategic complexity marked by unprecedented land, air, and sea infiltrations. The success of Hamas hinged on meticulous planning, exploiting misconceptions, and diverting attention from Gaza. Israel responded with Operation Swords of Iron, drawing regional and international reactions. India has shown strong support to Israel. Concerns about Hamas’s military headquarters and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)’s humanitarian issues loom large, while analysts caution against a ground invasion in Gaza. Detailed ReportIn his opening remarks, Dr. Pradhan provided a succinct overview of the current war between Israel and Hamas. Notably, Hamas initiated a deadly terrorist attack, resulting in the loss of 1400 Israeli lives. In response, Israel declared war, initiating Operation Swords of Iron, causing the death of around 2500 Palestinians. Dr. Pradhan highlighted intelligence and surveillance failures that caught the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) off guard. Acknowledging the gravity of the situation, the US Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken visited Israel and neighbouring countries as part of regional diplomacy efforts to manage the crisis. Reasons cited by Hamas for the attacks included ending perceived unaccountability, opposition to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank since 1967, protest against Israeli police raids on Al Aqsa Mosque, and objection to the detention of thousands of Palestinians. Dr. Rajiv highlighted that since its formation in 1987, Hamas rejected peace negotiations and adhered to an uncompromising stance outlined in its Charter, emphasising non-recognition of any part of Palestine under Zionist occupation. According to the Speaker, the success of Hamas on 7 October 2023 can be attributed to meticulous subterfuge, strategic planning, and effective execution. At the same time, a disproportionate focus on the West Bank and escalating violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinians diverted Israeli security forces’ attention from Gaza. Dr. Rajiv stated that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war, responding to what he termed a “murderous surprise attack” by Hamas. Operation Swords of Iron ensued, marked by a reestablishment of border control, massive airstrikes, and the mobilisation of 360,000 reservists, slightly less than the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The immediate war aim is to regain complete military control over Gaza, reminiscent of the pre-Oslo era. Israel’s historical precedence of ground invasions, such as Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 and Operation Protective Edge in 2014, involved substantial mobilisation of reservists, ground incursions, and casualties on both sides. Regarding the international response, Dr. Rajiv reported that a joint statement by the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy unequivocally condemned Hamas for acts of terrorism and affirmed support for Israel’s defence efforts. Russia and China expressed deep concern over the conflict’s escalation. As for the regional response, Egypt urged maximum restraint, Saudi Arabia called for an immediate halt, the UAE sought a ceasefire, and Bahrain denounced civilian kidnappings. Turkiye’s Erdogan criticized the Gaza bombing, while Iran’s Khamenei spoke of eradicating the “usurper Zionist regime.” Qatar held Israel responsible, Kuwait blamed Israel, and Morocco condemned attacks on civilians. Dr. Rajiv explained Israel’s security response to the protracted conflict with Gaza. The IDF’s use of force till now was a strategy of attrition to debilitate enemy capabilities and occasional large-scale operations for temporary deterrence. With reference to domestic and regional implications, he highlighted the potential hardening of Israel’s political stance and uncertainties surrounding the two-state paradigm. He further stated that the increased force profile of the US and UK in the Eastern Mediterranean adds to the complexity of the regional strategic situation. Regarding India’s stance, Dr. Rajiv reported that India expressed solidarity with Israel, unequivocally condemning terrorism and emphasising adherence to international humanitarian law. He also highlighted India’s commitment to a sovereign Palestinian state. Comments and QuestionsDiscussion in the Q&A session pertained to the role of media narrative and disinformation, Israel’s possible action against the Hamas leadership in Qatar, Iran and Turkiye, role of the UNRWA, China’s approach towards the conflict in light of its recent regional mediation efforts, role of Turkiye and Egypt, Iran’s role in enhancing the overall capability of Hamas, dent in the image of Israel’s invincible security, and the viability of the two-state solution. Report has been prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Report on the Monday Morning Meeting Titled: The Ransomware Resurgence and Other Trends in Cybersecurity | September 25, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “The Ransonware Resurgence and Other Trends in Cyber security” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 25 September 2023. The Session was moderated by Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary.The presentation started with opening remarks by Mr. Sharma. He defined ransomware as a type of malware attack that leads to the victim losing access to data/ device unless they paid a ransom to have their data decrypted. He cited that there had been a 53% increase in ransomware attacks in India compared to the previous year. They were mainly targeting the critical infrastructures, especially the healthcare sectors. All these attacks were carried out by well-trained professionals, mainly targeting financial institutions, trading centres, and other pivotal infrastructures. All these kinds of activities usually create a dilemma for victims' organisations about whether they should go for recovery and pay the ransom, and whether there is any guarantee of getting back the data even after paying the ransom. The third and most crucial point is whether insurance coverage should be included for paying ransom? For example, in the US, companies use first-party liability and insurance coverage to pay ransom amounts. Saying all this, the moderator invited Dr. Cherian for his presentation. Detailed ReportDr. Cherian began his presentation by also citing a definition. He described ransomware as “a type of cyber-attack where malicious software encrypts a victim's data and demands payment, usually in cryptocurrency, from the victim to decrypt the data or restore access to their system." Further, he spoke about a few techniques by which these external players are gaining access to high-level merchandised firms through phishing emails, remote desktop protocol, credential abuse, exploitable software vulnerabilities, URLs, third-party apps, compromised websites and drive-by downloading. And what their motives are, and so forth. Following this, he delved deep into the role of the nation-state actors, for example, the Russian ransomware gangs, their network allies, and the role of North Korea. He also talked about Ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) as a business model for criminal enterprises that allows anyone to sign up and use tools for conducting ransomware attacks. Like other as-a-service models, such as software-as-a-service (SaaS) or platform-as-a-service (PaaS), RaaS customers rent ransomware services rather than owning them as in a traditional software distribution model. Ransomware locks up a victim's system or files, usually via encryption. The victim can only regain access to their data once they pay a ransom to the parties behind the ransomware attack. Ransomware has become a significant industry in the criminal underworld, worth billions of dollars annually. While many imagine that the people behind cyber-attacks like ransomware are highly skilled programmers, many attackers do not write their code and may not even know how to do so. Cybercriminals with coding skills often sell or rent out the exploits they develop instead of using them. Ransomware is just one area of the cyber-crime industry with an "as-a-service" model. Attackers can also rent DDoS tools, subscribe to lists of stolen credentials, hire botnets, or rent banking trojans, among other services. Given below is a flow chart showing how RAAS works. Apart from this, he also discussed triple extortion. As its name says, the triple extortion ransomware adds another layer to the attack. An extension of the double extortion attack, using most of its tactics, this time, the malicious actor will choose an extra pressure point to get his victim to pay. In addition to data encryption (the first layer) and the threat of leaking essential data (the second layer), the cybercriminal can add another tactic of his choosing (the third layer). The most common tactics are going after the victim's clients, partners, affiliates, patients, associates, suppliers, etc., with ransom demands so their data will not be leaked, launching an additional Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDoS) over the target, or making phone calls to persuade them. He elaborated that to counter these criminal activities, a virtual meeting was held in Washington DC on 13 and 14 October 2021 to pinpoint an effective way to counter these malicious activities. The meeting was led by the United States and paved the way for the creation of the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) which seeks to enhance international cooperation to combat the growth of ransonware. Five working groups were created; a group looking at Resilience led by Lithuania and India, Disruption led by Australia, Illicit Finance led by the UK and Singapore, and Partnership by Germany. The second CRI was held in Washington DC from 31 October to 1 November 2022. At the second ICRI Summit, members re-affirmed their joint commitment to building collective resilience to ransomware, cooperating to disrupt ransomware and pursue the actors responsible, countering illicit finance that underpins the ransomware attacks, and continuing to cooperate internationally across all elements of the ransomware threat. The third ICRI summit will be on 31 October 2023, in which 47 countries will participate. Finally, he raised the issue of why ransomware was not getting the attention it deserved in India. He inferred that there were other bigger cyber threats, including that from UPI fraud. Data about the Cybercrime Distribution Trend in India showed that UPI fraud cases are accelerating. DiscussionThe participants raised very vibrant and diversified queries, especially regarding aspects of using ransomware against other nations. Its possibilities and implications were discussed. Along with this, how ransomware attacks are affecting the sovereignty of countries was also discussed. Mr. Saurav Raj Pant, a Visiting Fellow from Nepal, raised a question regarding the digital literacy of India, and Dr. Cherian Samuel gave a very pin-pointed answer. He said that, when it comes to digital literacy, it is more or less individual. There needs to be a specific literacy for that. General awareness is sadly still lacking, which is why a lot of attacks are taking place. Though the actors are so sophisticated they can very well manipulate fear which is more or less interrelated to the psychological aspects of the victims. All the call centre scams are part of it, their modus operandi changes from time to time. Therefore, even if we all are informed there can be a high chance of being scammed. Overall the discussion was highly informative. Report prepared by Ms. Gayathri Pramod Panamoottil, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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| Monday Morning Report on India-Nepal Hydro Energy Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects | September 04, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “India-Nepal Hydro Energy Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 4 September 2023. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Opangmeren Jamir, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and the scholars of the Institute participated in the discussions. Executive SummaryNepal has a huge potential for hydro-energy cooperation. India and Nepal share a lot of common interests in developing Nepal’s hydro energy projects and both States are taking significant steps in this direction. Despite this, there remain several challenges that need to be addressed by both sides. India remains concerned about the increasing presence of Chinese companies in the development of various infrastructure projects in Nepal. Nepal on the other hand complain about consistent delays in the timely completion of projects undertaken by Indian companies in Nepal. Detailed ReportDr. Opangmeren Jamir gave a brief introduction to various aspects of India-Nepal Hydro Energy Cooperation. He mentioned that cooperation on hydro energy projects between India and Nepal offers huge prospects for energy security and economic development in both the countries. He highlighted that hydroelectricity cooperation was also on the agenda of the Nepalese Prime Minister’s last visit to India. During this visit several bilateral agreements were signed between both the countries. During his introductory remarks, Dr. Jamir also highlighted the importance of the recently signed India-Nepal-Bangladesh tripartite power trade agreement through which Nepal agreed to supply 500 megawatts of electricity to Bangladesh. Dr. Jamir then invited Dr. Nihar R. Nayak to make his presentation on the topic. Dr. Nayak started his presentation by highlighting that Nepal has around 6000 rivers and rivulets with an annual flow-224.5 billion cubic meters and a total catchment area of 145,723 square kilometres. He mentioned that the abundance of these rivers and the rate of water flow in these, makes Nepal undertake investments in hydropower projects. Dr. Nayak highlighted that Nepal has a technical potential to generate around 45,610 MW of electricity from 66 potential hydro-electric sites in the country. He pointed out that Nepal in June 2021 reported a surplus amount of electricity generation in the country and it currently has around 125 active projects that contribute to 2,822 MW total production. The country presently exports around 452.6 MW of electricity and has proposed to export around 600 MW by the end of 2023. Dr. Nayak highlighted that despite all these estimates Nepal remains a “net importer” of electricity while it aims to become a “net exporter.” Commenting on a report titled ‘Policy Arrangement regarding Power Purchase and Sale-2080 BS’, Dr. Nayak mentioned that Nepal wants to be self-reliant to meet its electricity needs and by 2030 it aims to achieve the hydroelectricity production target of around 10,000MW. He highlighted that Nepal by 2030 also wants to be a key hydro energy exporter in South Asia and it seeks to extend a power purchase agreement of 50 years with India. Speaking on India-Nepal bilateral relations and both the countries' cooperation on hydro energy projects, Dr. Nayak mentioned that as per the 1950 Treaty, it was declared that if “the Government of Nepal decides to seek foreign assistance in regard to the development of the natural resource, Nepal shall give first preference to the Government or the nationals of India”. Dr. Nayak mentioned that India has developed 15 different kind of hydro energy projects in Nepal. He also discussed several important bilateral agreements and legal frameworks signed between the two countries in the hydro energy sector that included the Power Exchange Agreement (1971), an Agreement on Electric Power Trade, Cross-border Transmission Interconnection and Grid Connectivity (2014) and Procedure for Approval and Facilitating Import/Export (Cross Border) of Electricity, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) signed in 2021. He mentioned that of these three, ‘Procedure for Approval and Facilitating Import/Export (Cross Border) of Electricity’ is seen negatively in Nepal. India under this framework has restricted electricity imports from Nepali projects that have any Chinese involvement. Commenting on the power transmission lines between India and Nepal, Dr. Nayak mentioned that both countries have an extensive network of 33kV, 132kV and 400kV power transmission lines between the two countries. In August 2023 India has further agreed to invest $679.8 million under Line Of Credit for the construction of transmission lines and sub-stations. Highlighting the current status of cooperation between India and Nepal, Dr. Nayak mentioned that both countries in April 2022 issued a Joint Vision Statement on the Hydropower Sector for mutually beneficial cooperation. Nepal’s Electricity Authority (NEA) and India’s Power Trading Corporation (PTC) in May 2023 signed a 5-year power sale agreement. Further in June 2023, India agreed to import 10, 000 MW of electricity from Nepal for a period of 10 years. Further, India-Nepal- Bangladesh as a part of a trilateral power transaction arrangement, have agreed in principle to export 40MW electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh. Dr. Nayak in the second part of his presentation talked about the Nepali perspectives on hydro energy cooperation with India. He mentioned that most people within the Nepalese Government see hydropower agreements with India as one-sided agreements that to an extent compromise Nepalese interests. Dr. Nayak also pointed out that some within the Nepali strategic spheres also view these as threats to Nepal’s sovereignty. He further highlighted that there are some who even claim that India treats its hydro energy projects in Nepal as a ‘strategic product’. Dr. Nayak mentioned that Nepal even blames India for deliberately delaying Nepal the permissions to export its surplus power despite both countries' mutual understanding at the PM level. He lastly pointed out that there also remains consistent uncertainty about India buying electricity from Nepal, which raises overall economic concerns for the country. In the final part of his presentation, Dr. Nihar Nayak highlighted various challenges and opportunities for India-Nepal hydro energy cooperation. He highlighted several bureaucratic challenges on the Indian side of which ‘lack of inter-ministerial coordination’ remains at the forefront. He mentioned that on the Nepali side, the Government needs to take a balanced approach in terms of equal distribution of hydro energy projects between India and China. Further, Nepal needs to strengthen the weak power transmission infrastructure on its side in the region. Dr. Nayak also pointed out the environmental damage due to these hydro energy cooperation projects in several areas of Nepal. Lastly, on India’s part, Dr. Nayak pointed out that India should undertake timely completion of its pending hydro energy projects. It also needs to adopt flexibility in implementing 2021-cross border energy trade guidelines. He mentioned that India should consider re-activating the irrigation and power potential of the Koshi and Gandaki barrage. India should further call for ‘trilateral collaborations’ by involving multilateral institutions and should encourage private sector participation in Nepal’s hydro energy projects. Questions and CommentsPost his presentation, Dr. Opangmeren Jamir invited Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy to make his comments on the subject. Dr. Jamir later opened the floor to the participants for their comments and questions. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy commented on China’s emerging dominance in Nepal’s hydro energy and other infrastructure projects and questioned the Speaker on the ways through which India can keep Chinese dominance away from such projects. He mentioned that a large part of India’s energy demands by 2030 would be met by non-fossil fuel-based resources under India’s call for 'panchamrit' and its call for transition to other green initiatives. Ambassador Chinoy highlighted that India should seek various measures to integrate Nepal and other South Asian countries into these initiatives. On the issue of timely completion of India's existing infrastructure projects in Nepal, Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that India needs to find credible ways to deal with the issue and find the reasons for such delays in these projects. Lastly, he asked the Speaker if there is a multiplicity of decision-makers on the Indian side that creates various challenges for their timely completion. Dr. Ashok K. Beheuria highlighted the issue of changes undertaken by India in its Power Purchase Agreement with Nepal and Nepalese response to it. He further mentioned that India can play a vital role in emerging new power transmission lines from Nepal for supplying electricity to Bhutan and Bangladesh and these can be used by India for its own geopolitical advantages. Dr. Beheuria further highlighted the need to enhance the participation of its private companies in undertaking various projects in Nepal and pushing them for the timely completion of projects. He asked the Speaker about the possibilities of India inviting other friendly countries for undertaking infrastructure development projects in Nepal. Dr. Anand Kumar asked the Speaker if India could use the Bhutan model to address its existing hydro energy infrastructure challenges with Nepal. He mentioned that the Chinese are well aware of the fact that the power generated from their hydroelectricity projects in Nepal, would be for sale to India and other South Asian countries. He mentioned that the Chinese have no intention of taking the electricity generated from their projects to their border villages or elsewhere. Col. Vivek Chadha highlighted that the impression from the Speaker’s presentation was that the blame of most of the problems that are limiting India-Nepal hydro energy cooperation is on India. He asked the Speaker to explain whether it is indeed true and whether people on the Indian side also believe in the discourse. Dr. Nihar R Nayak gave detailed explanations to all the questions and comments. Report prepared by Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. |
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| Monday Morning Meeting on Maritime Dimensions of the Ukraine War | September 11, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Maritime Dimensions of the Ukraine War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 11 September 2023 at 1000h in Seminar Hall I. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the Session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting. Executive SummaryAt the beginning of the war, the Russian Navy played a critical role in turning the tables in favour of Moscow. As the war progressed, the application and role of naval power became peripheral. The Ukrainian Navy was always inferior in front of the Russian side. It was always a mosquito fleet. Despite superiority, the Russian Navy has not been able to make any difference in the outcomes of the land battle. The war planners in the Kremlin did not envisage a clear role for its navy before initiating their special military operation. Ambiguity in Russia’s War objective resulted in its Navy's failure to make optimum use of available assets. Despite suffering considerable losses Russia continues to dominate the critical Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC) in the Black Sea. The maritime theatre of this war will have a lasting influence on the history of naval warfare. Detailed ReportCmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.) commenced the meeting by offering insights about the Ukraine War. He stated that the navy’s role in the short war is difficult to discern. But when the war is prolonged, the role of naval power can make a decisive difference to the result of the war. However, the Ukraine War is an exception to this proposition. At the beginning of the war, the Russian Navy played a critical role in turning the tables in favour of Moscow. As the war progressed, the application and role of the naval power became peripheral. The Ukrainian Navy was always inferior in front of the Russian side. It was always a mosquito fleet. Despite superiority, the Russian Navy has not been able to make any difference in the outcomes of the land battle. With these initial comments, Cmde. Singh (Retd.) called upon Dr. Vignesh to speak on the subject. Dr. Vignesh began his presentation by introducing the strategic geography of the Black Sea to the audience. He said that the maritime theatre of this War was confined to the Black Sea. The Black Sea is a large enclosed sea which can be accessed through the straits of Marmara and Bosporus, both of which are located within the sovereign territory of Turkey. He mentioned the Montreux Convention, of 1936, which governs the maritime traffic passing through these straits. Further, he briefly spoke of the Russian sense of glory vis-à-vis Crimea and Sevastopol, and the Russian threat perception about North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) presence in the Black Sea. The Speaker spelt out that enclosed geography and restricted access to the maritime theatre as the main reasons behind the limited scope of application of Sea Power by Russia. Further, the role of Turkey in closing the Straits of Marmara and Bosphorus; the restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention prohibiting warships above 15,000 tonnes from transiting through the Turkish Straits; shallowness of waters and the narrow passage of the Turkish Straits were additional factors behind limited use of the Russian Navy. Dr. Vignesh brought out the asymmetry between Russian and Ukrainian Navies and the historical reasons behind the same. According to the Speaker, the roots of this naval asymmetry lies in the 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian Fleet was only sufficient for promoting good order at sea rather than fighting conventional wars. After 2014, the US and NATO became actively involved in rebuilding the capabilities of the Ukrainian Navy which marked the Ukrainian Navy’s transition from Soviet Naval Philosophy to that of the West. As a result of which Ukraine’s Naval Strategy, 2018, identified the Mosquito Fleet Strategy as the most realistic and cost-effective solution for countering Russian naval supremacy. The term Mosquito Fleet is used to describe a naval fleet consisting predominately of small, fast and cheap platforms. Such fleets are often raised by lesser naval forces to deny command of the sea to a superior naval power through the use of asymmetrical tactics. Dr. Vignesh called attention to the importance of Snake Island in the Russia-Ukraine War saga. Alluding to the developments throughout the war, he explained how Russians took over Snake Island from Ukraine but could not hold on to it in the ensuing months. The retaking of Snake Island was a tactical victory for Ukraine as it diminished Russia’s ability to dominate the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Furthermore, the Speaker touched upon amphibious operations by Russia against Ukraine. He explained how amphibious landings near Mariupol from the Sea of Azov played a crucial role in the capturing of Mariupol by Moscow. However, Russia did not carry out similar amphibious landings in Odesa due to several reasons including inadequate amphibious lift capability of the Russian Navy, challenges in maintaining air superiority over beachheads, logistical issues arising due to the distance between Crimean ports and Odesa, rough weather and sea conditions of the Black Sea and lack of Landing Sites due to terrain of Odesa’s Coast. Dr. Vignesh claimed that the sinking of the Russian warship Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet, was not only a pivotal event in the Ukraine War but also in the history of naval warfare because it is the largest warship to be sunk since the sinking of an Argentine cruiser by the Royal Navy during the 1982 Falkland Wars. The sinking of Moskva was a major blow to the Russian Navy as the Black Sea Fleet lost its protective air cover and became more vulnerable to aerial attacks from the Ukrainian coasts. As a result, the Russian warships were forced to operate further away from the Ukrainian Coasts. The Speaker, also, mentioned Ukrainian Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) attacks against Russian naval targets. Although these attacks had not yet inflicted any major damage, they effectively challenged the Russian Warship's ability to operate freely in the region. Touching briefly upon the attacks on the Crimean Bridge and the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Dr. Vignesh inferred that the war planners in the Kremlin did not envisage a clear role for its navy before initiating their special military operation. Ambiguity in Russia’s War objective resulted in its Navy's failure to make optimum use of available assets. Talking about Ukrainian naval operations, the Speaker claimed that the Ukrainian Navy’s primary objectives had been to restrict the Russian Navy’s operations at the farthest from its coasts. They effectively used USVs, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal defence missiles as a part of the Mosquito Fleet Strategy. In the forthcoming days, the Ukrainian Navy would attempt to severe Russia’s connectivity with the Crimean Peninsula. While concluding, Dr. Vignesh said that despite suffering considerable losses Russia continues to dominate the critical SLOCs in the Black Sea. The maritime theatre of this war will have a lasting influence on the history of naval warfare. Question and Answer SessionAmbassador Chinoy observed that the Ukrainian Mosquito Fleet Strategy can be of help to countries like North Korea and Iran. Thus, there will be lessons drawn by these countries rather than naval historians. Further, Ambassador Chinoy raised the point of use of naval assets in the Black Sea when the enclosed space can be easily covered by shore-based air power, shore-based batteries, or the USVs/UAVs launched from the land. He said that the control of the Black Sea by Russians would give them leverage to open a new front on the southern flanks of Ukraine. Additionally, the naval battle in the Black Sea did not seem decisive but it was hurting the food security of the world, especially Africa. Dr. Vignesh said that Russia not conducting the amphibious operations was a missed opportunity. Commenting on some of the issues raised during the discussion, Cmde. Singh (Retd.) asserted that naval ships provide persistent air defence cover potently. Thus, even if, shore-based air cover is effectively employed in an operation, one needs capable ships to provide an air-defence umbrella. One should use a shore-based air defence system in combination with the air defence by the naval assets. Further, Cmde. Singh (Retd.) observed that Russia agreed to the Black Sea Grain Initiative because Moscow wanted to trade their products and did not possess the ability to completely blockade the Ukrainian shipments through the Black Sea. Report prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. |
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| Report of the Monday Morning Meeting on The Ransomware Resurgence And Other Trends In Cybersecurity | September 25, 2023 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “The Ransonware Resurgence and Other Trends in Cyber security” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 25 September 2023. The Session was moderated by Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive SummaryThe presentation started with opening remarks by Mr. Sharma. He defined ransomware as a type of malware attack that leads to the victim losing access to data/ device unless they paid a ransom to have their data decrypted. He cited that there had been a 53% increase in ransomware attacks in India compared to the previous year. They were mainly targeting the critical infrastructures, especially the healthcare sectors. All these attacks were carried out by well-trained professionals, mainly targeting financial institutions, trading centres, and other pivotal infrastructures. All these kinds of activities usually create a dilemma for victims' organisations about whether they should go for recovery and pay the ransom, and whether there is any guarantee of getting back the data even after paying the ransom. The third and most crucial point is whether insurance coverage should be included for paying ransom? For example, in the US, companies use first-party liability and insurance coverage to pay ransom amounts. Saying all this, the moderator invited Dr. Cherian for his presentation. Detailed ReportDr. Cherian began his presentation by also citing a definition. He described ransomware as “a type of cyber-attack where malicious software encrypts a victim's data and demands payment, usually in cryptocurrency, from the victim to decrypt the data or restore access to their system." Further, he spoke about a few techniques by which these external players are gaining access to high-level merchandised firms through phishing emails, remote desktop protocol, credential abuse, exploitable software vulnerabilities, URLs, third-party apps, compromised websites and drive-by downloading. And what their motives are, and so forth. Following this, he delved deep into the role of the nation-state actors, for example, the Russian ransomware gangs, their network allies, and the role of North Korea. He also talked about Ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) as a business model for criminal enterprises that allows anyone to sign up and use tools for conducting ransomware attacks. Like other as-a-service models, such as software-as-a-service (SaaS) or platform-as-a-service (PaaS), RaaS customers rent ransomware services rather than owning them as in a traditional software distribution model. Ransomware locks up a victim's system or files, usually via encryption. The victim can only regain access to their data once they pay a ransom to the parties behind the ransomware attack. Ransomware has become a significant industry in the criminal underworld, worth billions of dollars annually. While many imagine that the people behind cyber-attacks like ransomware are highly skilled programmers, many attackers do not write their code and may not even know how to do so. Cybercriminals with coding skills often sell or rent out the exploits they develop instead of using them. Ransomware is just one area of the cyber-crime industry with an "as-a-service" model. Attackers can also rent DDoS tools, subscribe to lists of stolen credentials, hire botnets, or rent banking trojans, among other services. Given below is a flow chart showing how RAAS works. Apart from this, he also discussed triple extortion. As its name says, the triple extortion ransomware adds another layer to the attack. An extension of the double extortion attack, using most of its tactics, this time, the malicious actor will choose an extra pressure point to get his victim to pay. In addition to data encryption (the first layer) and the threat of leaking essential data (the second layer), the cybercriminal can add another tactic of his choosing (the third layer). The most common tactics are going after the victim's clients, partners, affiliates, patients, associates, suppliers, etc., with ransom demands so their data will not be leaked, launching an additional Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDoS) over the target, or making phone calls to persuade them. He elaborated that to counter these criminal activities, a virtual meeting was held in Washington DC on 13 and 14 October 2021 to pinpoint an effective way to counter these malicious activities. The meeting was led by the United States and paved the way for the creation of the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) which seeks to enhance international cooperation to combat the growth of ransonware. Five working groups were created; a group looking at Resilience led by Lithuania and India, Disruption led by Australia, Illicit Finance led by the UK and Singapore, and Partnership by Germany. The second CRI was held in Washington DC from 31 October to 1 November 2022. At the second ICRI Summit, members re-affirmed their joint commitment to building collective resilience to ransomware, cooperating to disrupt ransomware and pursue the actors responsible, countering illicit finance that underpins the ransomware attacks, and continuing to cooperate internationally across all elements of the ransomware threat. The third ICRI summit will be on 31 October 2023, in which 47 countries will participate. Finally, he raised the issue of why ransomware was not getting the attention it deserved in India. He inferred that there were other bigger cyber threats, including that from UPI fraud. Data about the Cybercrime Distribution Trend in India showed that UPI fraud cases are accelerating. DiscussionThe participants raised very vibrant and diversified queries, especially regarding aspects of using ransomware against other nations. Its possibilities and implications were discussed. Along with this, how ransomware attacks are affecting the sovereignty of countries was also discussed. Mr. Saurav Raj Pant, a Visiting Fellow from Nepal, raised a question regarding the digital literacy of India, and Dr. Cherian Samuel gave a very pin-pointed answer. He said that, when it comes to digital literacy, it is more or less individual. There needs to be a specific literacy for that. General awareness is sadly still lacking, which is why a lot of attacks are taking place. Though the actors are so sophisticated they can very well manipulate fear which is more or less interrelated to the psychological aspects of the victims. All the call centre scams are part of it, their modus operandi changes from time to time. Therefore, even if we all are informed there can be a high chance of being scammed. Overall the discussion was highly informative. Report prepared by Ms. Gayathri Pramod Panamoottil, Intern, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA |