Report of Monday Morning Meeting: Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific

A delegation from The Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA), Arlington, Virginia, participated in the Monday Morning Meeting held on 6 November 2023 at 1000h in Room No. 005. Mr. Robert Hein, Senior Executive and Director, Policy and Plans, U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet, and Dr. Satu Limaye, Senior Advisor, CNA, spoke on “Emerging Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific”. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, chaired the Session.

Other members of the delegation, Mr. Dean Vaughn, Staff Member, Policy and Plans, US Navy Pacific Fleet and Ms. Tamara Hemphill, Acting Director, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, CNA, along with the scholars from MP-IDSA, enriched the discussion.

Executive Summary

The Asia-Pacific paradigm was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, the Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, the Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while the Indo-Pacific is more democratic. The US’ approach towards China has changed from cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. Chinese belligerent actions in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. The US seeks a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. There is a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. There is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Detailed Report

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy set the context for discussions. He said that the Indo-Pacific region is of great relevance to India and the United States (US). However, earlier, Asia-Pacific has been in vogue. The Post-World War II Japanese economic growth, the emergence of the Asian tigers, and the consistent high Chinese economic growth facilitated by the US gave rise to the concept of the Asia-Pacific. Going beyond financial calculations, the physical presence of the US was an essential factor in shaping the Asia-Pacific concept. Washington also invested heavily in the region. The US’ interests spanned across the political, military and economic domains. Thus, the Asia-Pacific was relevant from 1945 till the end of the century. However, today, Indo-Pacific is a far more representative and democratic framework consisting of large swaths of geography where people aspire for peace, stability and progress. Therefore, Asia-Pacific was a China-centric concept, while Indo-Pacific is more democratic.

Amb. Chinoy stated that the US is not an extra-regional player but has a physical presence, and an economic and strategic role in the Indo-Pacific. The US presence in the region was one of the most important reasons for the economic rise of Asia. Amb. Chinoy further stated that if China was championing the cause of multipolarity at the international level, the same should also be the case in Asia. Speaking about the Quad, Amb. Chinoy held that India attached great importance to the Quad, which is not a military partnership. There is an added advantage of having a multilateral Malabar exercise. He ended his introductory remarks by asking whether the Quad or Malabar could transform into an alliance in the future. He answered the question in affirmation and commented that China would determine the future of the Quad. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy invited Mr. Robert Hein to make his presentation.

Mr. Robert Hein spoke about the US Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept, and changing dynamics in the region vis-à-vis China. He said that the US emphasised a Free and Open Indo-Pacific so that there would be unimpeded regional trade leading to the region's economic development. Every country has a right to protect the integrity of their respective territorial waters. Talking about a radical change in regional security dynamics, the Speaker informed the audience how the US approach towards China changed from one of cooperation to competition. The US erroneously thought of transforming China into a responsible global partner through cooperation. However, China continued the unabashed militarisation of the South China Sea. Beijing started putting conditions on every form of cooperation to reduce competition. Mr. Hein, further affirmed that Chinese belligerent action in the region contributed to the growth of the US partnerships and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. He corroborated his claim by giving the example of the Philippines. Manila wanted to do away with the US forces from its territory. However, Chinese bellicose behaviour in the South China Sea forced the Philippines to renew a bilateral agreement with the US. Further, the Quad has grown enormously due to China’s maligned behaviour.

Mr. Hein complained that China had cut off all communication with the US, which was a bad sign for any bilateral relationship. Talking about India-US relations, the Speaker observed that the relationship was in good shape and growing well in multiple areas including defence, technology, new practices and procedures. The US relies on India to realise concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. He also spoke about the US vision of a thousand-ship navy being realised with the help of its partners and allies as a collective endeavour. He cautioned the audience that the conflict over Taiwan would be a great blow to the global economy and may lead to another great depression.

Dr. Satu Limaye agreed with the previous Speaker that China had done an excellent job in strengthening the US alliances. He held the India-US Partnership in good stead and said the US alliances were becoming more critical. Regarding de-risking and decoupling from China, Dr. Limaye remarked that the picture was more precise and the US was weighing its dependencies with China about trade, investment and high technology. Simultaneously, the US sought a principled engagement with China rather than G2 to stabilise the relationship. Dr. Limaye touched upon the economic aspect of the US-China relationship. He observed a shift in China’s economic relations with the region, especially with the US, Japan and Europe. On the one hand, China is trying to diversify ties as a part of broader decoupling. On the other hand, the US has increased interactions with its allies and partners in the economic domain. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework were helping the regional economic order to become more multilateral, open and engaged. The Speaker noted a distinct change in the US approach towards multilateralism. Rather than focusing on the big regional multilateral initiatives like the East Asia Summit, the US focused on initiatives such as the Chip 4 Alliance, Quad and Critical Mineral Partnership. Thus, there is a preference for minilateralism and functional multilateralism in high technology, green energy and critical minerals, among others.

Amb. Chinoy observed that there was no need for the US to have a thousand-ship navy due to its technological superiority over China. He noted that India was not a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as there was a moratorium on expanding the grouping. Regarding China’s Malacca Dilemma, Amb. Chinoy commented that all countries depend on the Malacca Strait for their trade and energy needs. Amb. Chinoy also raised a few questions regarding the US’s reaction in case China attempts to forcefully seek reunification with Taiwan. He also inquired about the US position in case China threatened the Philippines’ sovereignty over its island territories.

In response to the observations raised by Amb. Chinoy and MP-IDSA scholars, Mr. Hein stated that China would not commit to any adventure over Taiwan because President Xi lacks confidence in his armed forces. Additionally, he has several domestic issues that would deter him from taking Taiwan by force. The US has allies and partners in the region, thus preventing China from doing a misadventure over Taiwan. Talking about the role of domestic politics in decision-making vis-à-vis a contingency in the region, the Speaker further said that in a war-like situation, the US would unite and respond to the situation wholeheartedly. Regarding Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), the Speaker said that the US does it against friends and adversaries alike and will continue to do so in accordance with International Law. Mr. Hein said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was important for the US. Following a rich and insightful discussion, Amb. Chinoy brought the meeting to a close.

Report is prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre.