China’s push for influence among the Caribbean political elite has been replicated with an equally determined effort to court the military and the bureaucratic elite in the region, often deftly stepping in to take advantage of senseless overreactions on the part of the United States.

As the need for a modern and capable naval force grows ever more urgent, it remains to be seen if the Philippine Navy’s latest modernisation plans will become a reality or be still-born as was the case with earlier efforts.

Whether the ruling would induce China to adopt a fresh look at the dispute or it would only further complicate the domestic and regional political situations will depend on the domestic, regional and international responses in the coming days and weeks.

The Hague Tribunal’s decision and China’s take on it are unlikely to compel Duterte to ignore economic interests that can be furthered through cooperation with China.

While using unexceptionable language, India has actually not supported the Chinese position in the South China Sea and has called upon China to adhere to the limits laid down in the UNCLOS.

In purely legal terms, the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s decision will be binding, and a refusal to abide by its findings could have consequences. Beijing has, however, made it clear that in the event of a negative ruling it will simply ignore the judgment.

The United States, once the dominant influence over the armed forces of the region, is now in danger of losing that position to China and has already lost it in countries like Bolivia and Venezuela.