The Sanctions Dilemma: How Sanctions Against Russia Affect Regional Integration within the EAEU States

International sanctions affect international trade significantly. They lead to a decrease in the trade flow between the sender and the targetFootnote1; when the political relationship is strained, it can negatively affect trade flows.Footnote2 Moreover, the threat of economic sanctions may be even more important than the actual imposition.Footnote3 The anticipation effect may bring controversial results for both the sender–target interactions and the target’s relations with the third countries. On the one hand, political and diplomatic tensions increase the exposure of international firms to political and credit risk and encourage them to temporarily delay trade. Footnote4 On the other hand, the threat of sanctions can act as an incentive for potential targets to stockpile against future negative effects of sanctions and result in short-term positive effects.Footnote5