Turbulent Future Lies Ahead for Global Energy Markets

Dr. Arvind Gupta was Director General at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Click here for detailed profile
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  • November 2010

    What are the major trends that will shape the global energy future in the medium to long term, say up to 2030? The authoritative report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued in 2007, before the global economic slowdown of 2008–09, had predicted the world's primary energy demand growing by 55 per cent at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent between 2005 and 2030. This was before the global economic crisis of 2008–09. A subsequent report issued in 2009 by the agency lowered the projection to an annual rise of only 1.5 per cent during the period 2007–30, representing only a 40 per cent increase. The sharp change in the IEA's estimates within two years underlines the hazard in making projections about future demand and supply.