New Delhi: A peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in the interest of India, and international community and therefore all efforts must be made to sustain the ongoing process of reconstruction and development and contribute to Afghan capacity-building, felt the experts on Afghanistan during a roundtable on ‘Future Outcomes in Afghanistan’ organised by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) on June 18, 2014.
The experts agreed that post-2014, when international troops withdrew from Afghanistan, there was a possibility of Taliban launching an all-out offensive; however, the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) had the capability to fend off such challenge, provided the international community continued to provide assistance to the ravaged nation till such time Afghans develop the capacity to stand on their own. ANSF, the speakers concluded, had done a commendable job in bringing down the level of violence in the country, and it could neutralize the Taliban if it received continued support of the international community.
Various suggestions were made ranging from establishing a mechanism to ensure non interference in its affairs, to evolving an Afghan National Development Plan, or providing budgetary support but allowing Afghans to make their own choices. Pakistan’s negative interference was discussed as a major stumbling block on the way to normalisation of the security situation, which was critical for Afghan stability, economic development and self-reliance. The possibility of trade and commerce among India, Pakistan and Afghanistan was also flagged, with the experts insisting that the potential for such economic relations is immense, provided there was a political will in Pakistan to allow it to happen.
On the issue of regional cooperation, the experts argued that there has to be unanimity of views on the need to advocate a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan and bring stability and order to the war torn country. It was pointed out that most Afghans wanted a neutral Afghanistan, however, some of the regional countries, especially Pakistan, had different strategic calculations and wanted to retain their leverage by all means. Moreover, regional countries, it was pointed out, did not have the required resources to support the ongoing process of reconstruction and development in Afghanistan.
The experts also discussed the prospects of trade and commerce with Afghanistan, which could boost Afghan economy, and held that being a land-locked country Afghanistan was critically dependent on Pakistan both to reach out to the South Asian market by land and to access the warm waters. However, the experts believed that the alternative route through the Iranian port of Chabahar was not paid enough attention. They were particularly critical of the lack of Indian interest in Chabahar, even if it was identified as a possible gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia almost a decade earlier. It was noted that Indian hesitation might have been on account of US pressure given the tension in US-Iran relations in the past and there was a hope that with the possible rapprochement in US-Iran relations, India could accelerate its efforts to revive the Chabahar option. It was mentioned that China had started taking interest in Chabahar in recent months and given the problem of making Gwadar functional for their use, the Chinese might adopt Chabahar as yet another strategic option in India’s neighbourhood.
The ongoing presidential election in Afghanistan was discussed in detail and it was mentioned that both the contenders for the presidential post, Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani had good understanding with the US and international community. The participants hoped that it would through up a legitimate government which will be able to take the process of stablisation forward. There was a consensus that India needed to keep itself engaged with the Afghan government and continue with its developmental efforts to bring stability and peace to Afghanistan.
India must stay engaged in Afghanistan and work towards peace and stability