China’s Territorial Claim on Arunachal Pradesh: Alternative Scenarios 2032

China's territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh is a major bone of contention between India and China. The issue has eluded resolution despite mechanisms of border talks between both countries. Recently, China raised its stakes on the issue by showcasing Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory in a map printed in its new microchip-equipped passports. This Occasional Paper analyzes the Chinese territorial claim from futuristic perspective by identifying three drivers of uncertainty that has bearing on future Chinese behaviour, namely, Chinese regime stability and nationalism; the Tibet factor and internal developments in Arunachal Pradesh. Based on the interactive interplay between the three drivers, the author offers four alternative scenarios with regard to China's territorial claim in 2032.

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