Chairperson: Aditya Singh
Discussants: R. Dahiya and Gaurav Kampani
Implications of Pakistani nuclear use for India’s nuclear and conventional doctrine. This paper revisits the ‘Sundarji doctrine’ to assess its suitability for limitation and termination of nuclear war. In a nutshell, the ‘Sundarji doctrine’ calls for termination of a nuclear war at the lowest level of escalation.
The paper then intends to recommend the institution of a standing strategic dialogue mechanism with Pakistan to enable limitation in conflict, even a nuclear one. The continuing imperative of limitation even in nuclear war compels a review of India’s conventional and nuclear doctrines.
The speaker validated the argument that nuclear initiation, in the context of a future India-Pakistan war, is with Pakistan. Therefore its implication on India’s nuclear and conventional doctrine would emerge. While validating such an argument the speaker put forth the following arguments.
Having put forth the context of future conflict dimensions between India and Pakistan, the speaker then described the “nuclear dimension of the conflict” and nuclear strike (first) options located within it.
The speaker downplayed “decapitation strike” and “first strike” as viable options. Thereby arguing that nuclear use options of a lower order may appear more attractive. The speaker cited the advantages of late nuclear use as it would not be unambiguously illegitimate in case Pakistan is faced with extinction as a state. Pakistan would be resorting to it at a stage in the war when it is vulnerable, possibly having exhausted other military options.
In essence the paper argued that late nuclear use could prove more dangerous and damaging to India than early use.
Prepared by S.Rajasimman, Research Assistant at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.