Mubarak’s Fall in Egypt: How and Why did it Happen?

After nearly 30 years in power, the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt, considered by many to be the strongest in the Arab world, collapsed suddenly in February 2011 after a mere 18 days of street protests. In this article, we try to explain the puzzling collapse of the Mubarak regime using regime transition theory. We argue that the Mubarak regime’s collapse came about as a result of four key developments, none of which were sufficient to cause the regime’s collapse, but when coalesced together exposed the regime’s lack of coercive and persuasive powers, thereby hastening its demise. We conclude that regime transition theory, developed to explain the third wave of democratisations in the 1970s and 1980s, is still relevant in explaining transitions from authoritarian rule.