2024 Presidential Election in Sri Lanka: An Analysis

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Summary

In the Sri Lankan presidential election held on 21 September 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected as the ninth Executive President. The challenge for the new president is to meet the expectations of his supporters, win the trust of those who did not vote for him, and seek majority support during the forthcoming parliamentary election. The prognosis for India–Sri Lanka relations under the new administration looks positive.

The 2024 Presidential Election in Sri Lanka was the first election after the 2022 people’s uprising, Aragalaya, which sought to change the existing political culture as well as the traditional political leadership of the country. Around 79.46 per cent of the total registered voters (17,140,354) voted on 21 September 2024. Thirty eight candidates were in the fray but none of them got the required 50 per cent +1 mandate to win in the first round of counting.

For the first time in the history of presidential elections in Sri Lanka, the counting had to go to a second round to consider the preference votes as per the Presidential Elections Act of 1981.1 Following two rounds of counting, the Election Commission of Sri Lanka declared Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the candidate of the National People’s Power (NPP), as the 9th Executive President. About 42.31 per cent of the voters bestowed their faith on Anura as an alternative to the traditional political leadership. The 57.69 per cent of voters not voting for him indicates that there is scepticism in the minds of people on NPP’s ability to bring about effective policy changes. Nevertheless, the conduct of the new President and the ruling party post-election seems to be gradually wavering that scepticism.

This Brief analyses the 2024 Presidential Election outcome by examining the voting patterns, and investigates the possible challenges for the new administration as it tries to deal with the country’s political, economic and foreign affairs. The prospects for India–Sri Lanka relations is also flagged.

Presidential Elections in Sri Lanka

The Executive Presidency was introduced in Sri Lanka in 1978. The first presidential election was held in 1982. Subsequently, presidential elections were held in 1989, 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2019 and 2024.

Table 1 shows that during 1982–2015, the main contest was between the two main political parties—United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)—or the coalition led by these two parties. Candidates from either the UNP or the SLFP have been winning the presidential race either on their own or with the support of the coalition partners. Since 2010, the UNP has stopped contesting presidential elections under its banner and symbol. The UNP has been using the New Democratic Front (NDF) symbol and banner to field its candidate in the presidential race. In 2010, the UNP supported Sarath Fonseka as the ‘Joint Opposition Candidate’ who contested under the Swan symbol of the NDF. In 2015, Maithripala Sirisena, a SLFP member, contested as a ‘Joint Opposition candidate’ under the banner of NDF and supported by the UNP and others, and defeated SLFP candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa.

In 2019, the then Deputy Leader of the UNP Sajith Premadasa contested the presidential election as NDF candidate and lost to Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa. SLPP is the political party formed by the loyalists of Mahinda Rajapaksa within the SLFP after Maithripala Sirisena won the presidential election in 2015 and became the leader of the SLFP. In the 2019 Presidential Election, the contest was between the SLPP and the NDF. Since the members in these two parties are former members of the two main parties, the SLFP and the UNP, it was a fight between the traditional political leaders.

The 2024 Presidential Election was different from the previous elections in many aspects. Among the 38 candidates who contested the election on 21 September 2024, 23 candidates contested under the banner of registered political parties and 15 were independent candidates. The UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe contested as an independent leader and was supported by the SLFP faction led by Nimal Siripala de Silva and over 100 SLPP parliamentarians. SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa also participated in the election as party candidate. The two front-runners in the presidential race were—Anura Kumara Dissanayaka from the NPP and Sajith Premadasa from Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).

SJB is the political party formed in 2020 by Sajith Premadasa after breaking away from the UNP to participate in the 2020 parliamentary elections.  Many of the former UNP members joined the SJB. SJB presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa was supported by more than 27 political parties during the recently held presidential election. The NPP was formed by the JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and 21 other political parties in 2019. JVP was formed in 1965 as a left radical party and was involved in an armed insurrection in 1971 and during 1987–89. JVP was banned till 1994. After the ban was lifted in 1994, it became a mainstream political party and followed a Sinhala nationalistic chauvinistic attitude towards the Tamil issues. It made an entry to the Parliament in 2000 and since then maintained its presence in the Parliament. JVP was part of President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s Cabinet from 2004 to June 2005.2 JVP also participated in the previous presidential elections. However, the JVP or JVP-led coalition never formed the government. Anura Dissanayake contested as NPP candidate in the 2019 Presidential Election but received only 3.16 per cent of votes. In the 2020 parliamentary election, JVP won just three seats.

In terms of political ideology, there has been a significant shift in JVP’s radical left orientation, after Anura Dissanayake took over the party leadership in 2014. Further deviation from the Marxist-Leninist approach can be observed when NPP was formed in 2019. According to Jayadeva Uyangoda, NPP can no longer be called a leftist radical party. Uyangoda labelled NPP as a ‘progressive reformed’ party which consists of JVP members, professionals, intellectuals and artists.3 Thus, the NPP is not considered a part of traditional political elites and dynastic politics. 

Another unique feature of the 2024 Presidential Election was that the election campaign was free of ethnic and religious chauvinistic rhetoric. Since 1982, ethnic chauvinism was very much part of the election campaign. The 2019 Presidential Election held after the Easter bombing attack was fought on communal politics. The ethnic or religious communalism agenda in the previous presidential elections had a polarising effect which was very much visible in the outcome of those results. In the 2024 Presidential Election, economic, corruption and governance issues took precedence over ethnic and communal issues during the campaign.

2024 Presidential Election: Vote Share

Of the total valid votes of 13,319,616, 42.31 per cent voters voted for NPP candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 32.76 per cent voted for SJB leaders Sajith Premadasa, 17.27 per cent for incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2.57 per cent for SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa and 1.70 per cent for Tamil common candidate Ariyanethiran Pakkiyaselvam.4 The remaining 33 candidates secured less than 1 per cent votes after the first round of counting. As no one secured 50 per cent +1 vote, the counting went to the second round in which except Anura and Sajith, all candidates were eliminated and the second and third preference votes secured by these two leaders were counted. After the second round of counting of the preference votes, Sajith got more preference votes than Anura, but when both the votes (without preference and with preference) were added, Anura emerged as the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election after getting 5,740,179 total votes.5

There are nine provinces and 22 electoral districts in the country. Table 3 shows the vote share of the top five candidates in each of the electoral districts in the nine provinces. Out of the 22 districts, Anura swept in 15 districts and Sajith Premadasa claimed seven districts. The incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe ranked third in terms of vote share in all the districts except in Batticaloa, Vanni and Nuwara Eliya. In these three districts of the East, North and Central Province, Ranil got the second highest votes after Sajith. 

Namal Rajapaksa, the SLPP candidate and son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, ranked fourth in terms of vote share. Even in his home district, Namal Rajapaksa failed to get people’s support. The decline of SLPP’s vote share from 52.25 per cent in 2019 to 2.57 per cent in 2024, is indicative of people’s wrath for dynastic politics and the ruling establishment.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over the responsibility of leading the country amid political and economic crisis and effectively managed the crisis, was also rejected by the majority of the voters, because he was considered as very much part of the existing system and ally of the Rajapaksa family who had demonstrated no intention to deal with the issues of corruption and governance. His economic policy was highly criticised by the middle class and the daily wage earners as it brought hardship to the common people. While 17.27 per cent of people (Wickremesinghe’s vote share) believe that hardship is temporary and necessary for real change in the long run, the majority of the people believe that his policy cannot be sustainable.

Despite repeated calls from the people, Ranil Wickremesinghe was rigid about continuing the high taxation policy to fulfil the objectives set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). His main argument was that fulfilment of the IMF conditions are an absolute necessity for the economic recovery of the country. Even though Ranil thought that his management of the crisis would help him in the election and people would accept him as an independent candidate, the majority of people felt that voting for him meant accepting the status quo.

Both Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, on the other hand, promised to provide tax and other economic relief to the people without discontinuing the IMF bailout package. In terms of the broad contours of economic and foreign policy, there is not much difference between the manifestoes of Sajith and Anura. However, Anura was perhaps preferred over Sajith due to the belief that Anura was more suitable to bring reforms to deal with corruption and mis-governance as unlike Sajith, he was not supported by people who were very much part of the existing system.

Nevertheless, despite the overwhelming enthusiasm for Anura, a significant section of people were concerned about electing a leader from Marxist-Leninist radical party which was involved in violence in the past. It was widely believed that Anura if elected to power would follow a policy based on Marxist-Leninist principles and thus negatively impact the economic recovery. About 32.76 per cent people voting for Sajith reflects the apprehensions about Anura in the minds of the electorate.

Apprehension for Anura is more glaring in the Tamil areas. JVP’s opposition to the Tamils cause during the Eelam War is the prime reason for Tamils not backing Anura. In the Tamil areas, voters preferred Sajith Premadasa who promised full implementation of the 13th amendment and trilingual language policy.6 Anura did talk about devolution and bringing a new constitution to create national unity.7 However, he could not convince the Tamils. As shown in Table 3, Ranil comparatively performed better than Anura in the Tamil-speaking areas. 

Another interesting observation is the Tamil common candidate failed to secure majority support in the Tamil areas. The voting patterns in the Tamil areas reiterated the fact that Tamil community is politically fragmented, and the keen desire for an alternative to traditional political leadership is comparatively less strong among the electorates in the North and East as it was in other parts of the country. Nonetheless, it should be noted that in Trincomalee and Digamadulla district in the East, Anura secured the second highest votes.

In terms of all island vote share, Anura made tremendous improvement compared to the 2019 Presidential Election. The reason is that NPP grasped the real reasons of people’s anger for the ruling establishment and traditional political elite and made those core issues part of the election agenda. Moreover, NPP did not ignore the criticisms and concerns people have for its economic and foreign policy approach, and accordingly, it adjusted its policy. The 128-page election manifesto of Anura is quite elaborate and pragmatic. Prior to the election campaign, NPP also engaged with the IMF and several foreign countries to explain their positions on several crucial issues of concern for the country.  NPP’s effort during the campaign may not have convinced many, but still managed to win the election by making a significant section of people believe that Anura is the hope for the country.

Possible Challenges and Options for NPP

The immediate challenge for the NPP is to fulfil the expectations of the people who voted for them, and winning the trust of the people who did not vote for Anura and seek majority support during the forthcoming parliamentary election. The second challenge will be to get the support of the IMF to renegotiate some crucial clauses and continuing the debt restructuring processes while making the economy progress towards the path of recovery. The third and the most crucial challenge will be achieving economic recovery. 

Winning the Parliamentary Election

The common people in Sri Lanka were the worst sufferers during the 2022 economic crisis. After the Ranil administration adopted measures to recover the economy, hardship increased. To avail the IMF loans, the Ranil administration initiated austerity measures on the one hand and on the other increased the tax rates. This coupled with high cost of living, put heavy economic burden on the common people. Anura has promised to address these grievances of the people and promised to enhance public investment on health, education, transportation and food security.8 He has also talked about building a united Sri Lanka by adopting a new constitution.

People are expecting immediate initiatives on the promises on corruption and governance issues. While some of the actions can be immediately taken by the newly formed cabinet, implementation of most of government policies requires majority support in the Parliament. Hence, winning the parliamentary election is the most crucial. The current vote share of the NPP during the presidential election is not enough to gain a two-third majority in the parliament.

Keeping the election promise, the new president has dissolved the parliament and declared the election date on 21 November 2024. The work done by the new president in the next one and a half months will determine the outcome of the parliamentary election. The people who have not voted for Anura will critically scan all the activities of the NPP. Allegations are already being made against the new government regarding political appointees.9 The next one and half months are going to be extremely crucial for the NPP.

On the one hand, NPP will have to be on its toes to earn the people’s confidence and on the other will have to reach out to other political parties for their support. However, the dilemma for the NPP will be to have an alliance with traditional political parties and leaders without spoiling its image as an alternative to traditional political parties. Given the poor performance in the North and the East, the NPP needs to intensify its groundwork in these areas to get people’s support as well as the support of the minority parties for their cooperation in the forthcoming parliamentary election and in the parliament after the election.

Since the new president and his cabinet took oath and assumed responsibility, the administration has sent a positive signal to the people about the shift the NPP government wants to make in governance and political culture. Smooth transition of power without any violence and no exhibition of triumphalism during peaceful celebration of victory by the NPP after the election have been appreciated by those who were concerned about possible post-election violence based on JVP’s violent past. The new administration has ordered an immediate halt to unnecessary expenditure, wastage and misuse of public funds and government resources, investigation of fraud and corruption, resumption of fresh investigations into the Easter Sunday tragedy, appointment of an acting IGP and restoration of the visa processing as per Supreme Court order and directing police officers to independently protect law and order without political influence.10

These actions so far have given hope that action on issues of corruption and governance will not be just a mere election promise. Another positive approach is his attitude towards the Tamils. Despite not performing well in the Tamil areas, he has adopted a positive attitude towards all communities in Sri Lanka. President Anura, in his inaugural address to the nation, talked about “launching a permanent program to build a unified Sri Lankan nation that respects diversity, fully ending the era of division based on race, religion, class, and caste”.11 Sri Lankan commentators and analysts are of the opinion that public support for the government is on the rise post-election.12 It may not be difficult for NPP to get majority support in the parliament. The main question is whether they will get a two-thirds majority, which will be crucial to bring various changes as proposed during the election campaign.

Continuation of the IMF Programme

President Dissanayake has confirmed his government’s broad agreement in principle with the objectives of the IMF programme but emphasised the importance of achieving these objectives through alternative means that relieve the burden off the people.13 The main focus of the government would be to alter the taxation policy and negotiate on social protection and governance issues. The IMF delegation that visited Sri Lanka to discuss the initiation of the third review of the programme, agreed to discuss the alternative approaches proposed by the Sri Lankan government. It is to be seen whether a final agreement could be reached with the IMF on those alternative approaches.

During the election campaign, Anura promised to increase public investment on education, health and transportation and give economic justice to the people. As per the IMF condition, the budget deficit should not go beyond 2.5 per cent of the GDP. The question, therefore, is how the government will maintain the target while reducing the tax revenue and increasing public expenditure on social welfare. NPP is confident that the new government will be able to fulfil this condition by reducing unnecessary expenditures and preventing the wastage of public funds. According to the new Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya, the government has done proper calculations of the real costs of social welfare measures and how the costs can be recovered.14 The government is expecting to go ahead with its plan after the parliamentary election. This, however, seems much easier said than done.

Economic Recovery

The most severe challenge for the new administration is economic recovery, which is a long-term process. For economic recovery, NPP has presented a new development model which aims at developing a production-based economy. Implementing the new development model will be an uphill task for the NPP government when there is a recession in the country. Hence, the most arduous task for the new administration will be simultaneously ensuring that the government’s economic plans are implemented, the debt restructuring process is continued and foreign investment flows in. Global credit rating agency Moody’s, though, does not foresee any disruption to Sri Lanka’s reform agenda under the new administration but has cautioned against possible elevation of credit risks for some time.15

There were lots of concerns pre-election about foreign powers’ and investors’ attitudes towards Sri Lanka if Anura won. Surprisingly, all the major countries and investors have expressed their commitment to cooperate with the NPP government after the election. Since the presidential election on 21 September, foreign direct investment commitment has increased. Japan has announced the prompt resumption of 11 stalled projects.16 The initial and prompt action of the new president on the issues of corruption and governance reforms has given a sense of optimism among the people and to the market.17 Nonetheless, the real question is to get things moving beyond commitment.

India–Sri Lanka Relations under President Anura

There were concerns about the future of India–Sri Lanka relations under the NPP rule because of JVP’s anti-India approach in the past. Anura’s comment on the cancellation of the Adani project during the election campaign enhanced the concerns that bilateral relations between India and Sri Lanka might get affected. However, the pragmatic approach initiated by the new administration in the past few days, both on aspects relating to domestic governance and foreign relations, indicates that with India, like with any other country, NPP would follow a practical approach. While it is going to review projects with Indian companies which are controversial in nature, it will likely engage with the Government of India and would try to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiations. However, NPP will ensure that Sri Lanka is treated as an equal, sovereign, independent nation in any kind of bilateral negotiations and collaborative effort.

So far, the prognosis for India–Sri Lanka relations looks positive. India was the first to congratulate Anura Kumara Dissanayake on his victory on 22 September. Dr S. Jaishankar was the first foreign minister to visit Sri Lanka since the new president took the oath. During the visit, Jaishankar and Anura discussed areas of mutual interest including fisheries and promoting national unity and stressed the importance of continued collaboration in multiple sectors in a cordial atmosphere. Dr Jaishankar highlighted that Sri Lanka could leverage India’s vast market to boost its economic recovery. Appreciating Anura’s anti-corruption initiatives, India has reaffirmed its willingness to assist Sri Lanka in implementing digitalisation measures to effectively combat corruption.18 According to the President’s office, Minister Jaishankar, on behalf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, extended an invitation to President Dissanayake to visit India at a mutually convenient date. President Dissanayake also extended an invitation to the PM of India to visit Sri Lanka.19 It is unlikely, therefore, that the relations between the two countries will be negatively affected under the new administration in Sri Lanka.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

• 1. “Presidential Elections Act, No.15 of 1981”, Parliament of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, 13 March 1981.
• 2. D.B.S. Jeyaraj, “Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Extraordinary Rise”, NewsInAsia, 5 October 2024.
• 3. Jayadeva Uyangoda in conversation with Neelima A., “Reimagining Leadership in Sri Lanka: The Rise of Leftist Politics”, Centre for Public Policy Research, 3 October 2024. 
• 4. “Presidential Election 2024 All Island Result - Without Preferences”, Election Commission of Sri Lanka, 22 September 2024.
• 5. “Presidential Election 2024 Final Result”, Election Commission of Sri Lanka, 22 September 2024.
• 6. “A Win for All”, Policy Manifesto, Samagi Jana Sandhanaya, 2024.
• 7. “A Thriving Nation: A Beautiful Life”, Jathika Jana Balawegaya (NPP) Policy Statement, August 2024.
• 8. Ibid.
• 9. “SJB Questions President’s Political Appointees for State Sector”, Newswire, 4 October 2024.
• 10. “President Directs to Allocate Luxury Vehicles Used by Previous Governments for Essential Services”, President’s Media Division, 26 September 2024;  “Conduct a Rapid Audit to Assess the Progress of the Allocations Spent by the Ministry of Sports”, Prime Minister’s Office, Sri Lanka, 27 September 2024;  “Visa Applications Now Available Under Previous System Starting Midnight Today”, President’s Media Division, 26 September 2024; “New Public Security Minister Speaks About Police Under NPP Govt”, Newswire, 25 September 2024.
• 11. “President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Inaugural Address to the Nation”, President’s Media Division, 25 September 2024.
• 12. Jehan Perera, “Commitment To National Interest”, Colombo Telegraph, 1 October 2024; Asoka S. Seneviratne, “NPP Winning 113 Seats is Simple, But Winning 150 & Close to 200 are Strategic & Deliberate”, Colombo Telegraph, 29 September 2024.
• 13. “Second Day of Talks between the President and IMF”, Press Release, President of Sri Lanka, 4 October 2024.
• 14. Asiri Fernando, “We Will Ensure Economic Stability and the Change We Promised: PM Harini Amarasuriya”, Excerpts of Interview of PM Harini Amarasurya, The Morning, 29 September 2024.
• 15. “Government of Sri Lanka: Political Change Unlikely to Dderail Reform Trajectory But Underscores Fiscal Consolidation Challenges”, Moody’s, 24 September 2024.
• 16. “Japan Expresses Full Commitment to Supporting the New Government’s Anti-Corruption Program”, President’s Media Division, 27 September 2024.
• 17. “CSE: All Share Price Index Increases”, Newswire, 25 September 2024.
• 18. “Indian High Commissioner Meets President Anura Kumara Dissanayake”, President of Sri Lanka, 2 October 2024.
• 19. “Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar Meets President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Reaffirms Support for Sri Lanka”, President of Sri Lanka, 4 October 2024.