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Monday Morning Meeting on Changing Security Dynamics in the Arctic | July 25, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on the “Changing Security Dynamics in the Arctic” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 25 July 2022. The meeting was chaired by Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Centre Coordinator, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and the scholars of the institute participated in the meeting. Executive SummaryThe Arctic region remains globally connected in an environmental and geopolitical context. In the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, the Arctic region is witnessing intense rivalry with high probability of militarisation. The focus of the states in the region has once again shifted towards high politics and the traditional notions of security. The space for cooperation that emerged in the Arctic region post-1987 Mikhail Gorbachev’s Murmansk speech, has started thawing as is the sea-ice extent. According to climate scientists, the Arctic is warming at a rate four times the average normal. This emerging interplay of science and complex geopolitics makes the Arctic a high risk and vulnerable region. The ‘Science Diplomacy’ and ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ as highlighted in India’s Arctic Policy (March 2022) could become an important guiding principle for this region. Detailed ReportDr. Sinha introduced the Arctic as a crisis and submitted two words in describing the region: antithesis and bellwether. The current securitisation in the Arctic is antithetical to the very foundation of Arctic as a zone of peace that Mikhail Gorbachev articulated in Murmansk in 1987. A series of policy initiations referred to as the Murmansk initiatives was launched such as nuclear weapons free zone in Northern Europe, restrictions in naval exercises in the Arctic Seas, development of transboundary cooperation on resource development, scientific exploration, indigenous people and environment protections. As a bellwether, the signs of what are happening in the Arctic region in terms of warming and its impact on the snow, ice and permafrost along with oceanographic and atmospheric changes are quite ominous for the global climate systems. Clearly what happens in the Arctic does not stay there. It also brings in a very noticeable conundrum. The more the Arctic becomes sea-ice free greater the economic and commercial attraction be it oil and gas and mineral resources extraction or the shipping lanes. Concluding his remarks, Dr. Sinha observed that a classic ‘security dilemma’ has emerged in the Arctic in which states take measures to improve security prompting other states to respond with their own security measures. What we are witnessing is a risky situation that can lead to unintended outcomes. The Arctic Council is going through a severely critical time. The interdisciplinary outlook that the Arctic Council has stood for is being tested by the interplay of the geopolitical and the geo-economics. Mr. Bipandeep Sharma began by geographically defining the Arctic region. He then highlighted its salience from three broad perspectives: science, geo-economics and geopolitics. ‘Science’ is what makes the Arctic globally connected. Referring to the scientific argument made by India, the presenter stated the monsoon in India is directly connected with the melting of sea ice in the Arctic region. From a geo-economic context, the Arctic region accounts for abundant natural resources including oil and natural gas, as well as mineral wealth. The resource attraction has led the Arctic states to make territorial claims in the region beyond their allocated national jurisdictions. Territorial claims as observed in the presentation are governed by the United Nations Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). Briefly commenting on its provisions as well as the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), Mr. Sharma said that a signatory state can make its claim in an area beyond 200 nautical miles of its designated Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) if it is successful in justifying (through scientific and technical data) before the CLCS that the area beyond its designated EEZ is an extension of its continental shelf. These claims before CLCS can be made only within 10 years of ratification of UNCLOS by a signatory state. The presentation also highlighted the importance of the new Arctic shipping routes that add to both the economic as well as strategic aspects of the region. The presenter’s key argument was that the Arctic region is witnessing worrying militarisation. Like the chair, he also emphasized Gorbachev's Murmansk speech and the call for making the Arctic a ‘Zone of Peace'. On the Arctic Council, the speaker noted that such institution building was part of the post-Cold War peace dividends which saw a period of de-securitisation. Despite geopolitical differences, the Arctic Council remained intact but now has been challenged by the Ukraine crisis and the expansion of NATO membership. Discussion, Comments and QuestionsAfter this comprehensive presentation, Dr. Sinha made his remarks and invited Ambassador Chinoy and Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi to make their comments. The floor was later opened to the panelists and participants for their questions and comments. Ambassador Chinoy thanked the speaker and pointed out that there are three major planks on which the geo-politics of Arctic revolves: climate change, geo-economics and geo-strategic. These factors shall have a major impact on India’s growing engagement in the Arctic. He also commented on the major power contestation between the USA and China. Furthermore, he gave his insights on the Antarctic Treaty and the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs). He also commented on broad challenges like the militarisation of the Arctic region. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, (Retd.), thanked the speaker and commented on building institutional cooperation between think-tanks and academia on Arctic related issues. He highlighted that in this MP-IDSA can play a pioneer role. Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, South Asia, MP-IDSA, commented on the concerns of climate change and exploitation of resources in the Arctic region. Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA, brought up the concerns of climate change and its effects on how Russia views the Arctic region. He also made remarks about China and Russia's cooperation and their approach to Arctic geopolitics. Richa Kumaria, Research Intern, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, raised a question on the role of the China in the Arctic region. Dr. Sinha and Mr. Bipandeep Sharma gave a detailed explanation to the comments and questions raised by the participants. Report prepared by Mr. Pintu Kumar Mahla, Research Intern, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on Iran Nuclear Talks: Key Issues and Regional Implications | July 18, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Iran Nuclear Talks: Key Issues and Regional Implications” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNearly for over a year, the Iran nuclear talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA have been going on between Iran and P5+1 countries. There have been many agreements and disagreements between them and other states. Iran made an attempt to enrich the nuclear material (Uranium) above the enrichment level limited by the JCPOA, leading to complications with the IAEA. If nuclear material has fissile isotope more than 20%, it is considered as Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and below 20%, is considered as Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). There have been many key issues that acted as stumbling blocks in the Iran Nuclear Talks and Iran has also made many demands which are discussed below. DETAILED REPORTDr. Rajiv Nayan, the moderator, during his opening remarks, started by briefing the audience about the Iran Nuclear talks - key issues and implications. He also talked about enrichment of uranium and how it can be considered as a threat by other countries. He mentioned that Iran export controls and enrichment technology control violates the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in the working paper submitted in different preparatory committees of NPT Review Conferences. DISCUSSIONAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, started his comments by stating that US does not seem very serious at this stage about the JCPOA. He gave his view about the topic. Firstly, he opined that world has changed a lot since JCPOA has come into effect in January 2016. It is unrecognisable in terms of threat perceptions, in terms of ups and downs of US politics with the Trump Presidency and Biden Administration. Secondly, is it virtually impossible for the US to formulate a new policy towards Iran or towards the JCPOA without having formulated its fundamental policy towards the Middle East. Furthermore, he also stated that, in addition to the IAEA monitoring Iran, Israel, which is the sworn enemy of Iran, is keeping an eye on Iran operations. The Report has been prepared by Mr. Aasi Ansari, Intern, Centre for Nuclear and Arms Control |
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Interaction with Delegation from National Defence College (NDC), Nigeria | June 01, 2022 | 1030 to 1300 hrs | Other |
The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) hosted a delegation from the National Defence College (NDC), Nigeria for an interaction on 01 June 2022 at 1500 hours IST. The delegation comprised military officers from Nigeria and other African countries, along with Cmde Tikoo of the Indian Navy and a few civilian academics. The welcome remarks were delivered by Maj Gen Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA. Initial remarks were made by the leader of the delegation, Cmde Aniefiok Cletus Uko. Ms Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Centre Coordinator, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA made a presentation on India-Nigeria relations and Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA made a presentation on India-Nigeria Maritime Cooperation. The session was attended by scholars from the Institute’s ALACUN Centre and Military Affairs Centre. The key highlights of the discussion were India-Nigeria relations, India-Nigeria maritime cooperation and India’s role in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). |
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Monday Morning Meeting on “Far-Right Extremism in the West” | June 27, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Far-Right Extremism in the West” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 27 June 2022. Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow, chaired the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and research scholars enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions. Executive SummaryIncidents of far-right extremism have increased in both the United States of America (U.S.A.) and Europe, especially in the past few decades. Detailed ReportThe speaker highlighted the surge in far-right extremism over the past five years. According to the United Nations Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee, between 2015 and 2020, over 82 percent of deaths recorded due to extremist violence were perpetrated by far-right extremists. Three recent incidents were pointed out in this context, such as the Christchurch attacks in New Zealand in March 2019, the Capitol Hill riots in Washington, D.C., in January 2021, and the Buffalo shootings in May 2022. Key Takeaways from the Q&A Session
The points raised were well taken and proposed to be incorporated as subjects of further study. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on “Growing Political Uncertainty in Sri Lanka: An Analysis” | July 11, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
The Monday morning meeting on “Growing Political Uncertainty in Sri Lanka: An Analysis” was held on 11 July 2022 at 10 AM in the Auditorium. Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), Dr. Gulbin Sultana spoke on the subject and elaborated on the significance and implications of the crisis in Sri Lanka. The session was chaired by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Co-ordinator & Senior Fellow, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. Director-General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) shared their views. Executive SummarySri Lanka has been passing through a serious political crisis which was preceded by a severe economic crisis in the country. The political uncertainty in the island nation has created a political uncertainty which is not going to end anytime soon, given the disagreements in the political leadership about various matters, like the formation of an interim government, holding fresh elections, and the demand of the protestors for a new political system in the country by abolishing the existing system of executive presidency. Although President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has finally yielded and hinted that he might resign, that is unlikely going to end the protests. The economic crisis continues and with least external support, the leadership of the country are finding it hard to manage the crisis. A lot will depend on the possible deal with the IMF. The deal however, will require a lot of homework and restructuring of the debt, change in some economic policies, etc. Detailed ReportDr. Ashok Kumar Behuria, the Chair, in his initial remarks said that the political crisis in Sri Lanka seemed inevitable as the crisis has been building up and deteriorating from 2016 onwards. Dr. Behuria said that the response to the intensifying economic crisis from the government was lackadaisical. Even the much needed loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was delayed. Not only did the Rajapaksa brothers act very late, the measures taken by them were not enough and were ineffective in mitigating the crisis. The country has external debt upto US$35 billion. Dr. Behuria said that since the protests are popular and have mass support, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa may have to resign under pressure. He also pointed out that the developments in Sri Lanka also underline the fact that a government that has come to power with popular vote may lose that popular support soon if it is unable to deliver and meet the expectations of the people. Dr. Gulbin Sultana: Dr. Gulbin Sultan started by saying that 9 July was a historical day in the history of modern Sri Lanka. The anti-government protests in the island country, also known as ‘Aragalaya’ locally, had reached their climax by the occupation of the Presidential Palace. She said that it is all likely, as stated by some government officials, that the protests have succeeded in forcing the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and ending the infamous Rajapaksa rule in the country. Dr. Gulbin raised four points in the wake of the latest developments in Sri Lanka: 1) Will the resignation of the President end the political instability?; 2) Will it end the protests?; 3) If the President and the Prime Minister resign, what will happen to the much needed IMF package that is being negotiated by a team led by Prime Minister Ranil Wikramasinghe?; and 4) What impact will the developments have on India’s interests in the country? Dr. Gulbin said that the resignation of the president is not going to end the popular protests led by the people. On 9 July, all political leaders met in the parliament to decide the next course of action. Four decisions were taken in the meeting: 1) The President and the Prime Minister (PM) should resign immediately; 2) the parliament should be reconvened in 7 days to appoint acting President; 3) appointment of an all-party government under a new Prime Minister commanding majority in the parliament; and 4) announcing fresh elections within short period of time. Appointing a new president and calling fresh elections are going to be contentious issues, Dr. Gulbin stated. Earlier also, when the opposition parties were demanding resignation of then PM Mahindra Rajapaksa, they could not unite or create consensus for a new prime ministerial candidate. She said that even now the opposition parties are not united. She also pointed out that even if the President resigns and despite some defections from the ruling party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) still enjoys the majority. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the main opposition party has only 58 members. The problem is that when it comes to voting for passing bills or making laws, cross voting is quite likely, like in the past. Dr. Gulbin said that though the protesters have been able to force the president to resign, they have more demands. One of the demands is to change the existing political system in the country on which the people have lost their trust. Additionally, they demand that after the formation of an interim government, there should be a popular council through which the representatives of the protestors will remain in touch with the new government. Dr. Gulbin said that this and other demands are going to be tough as the IMF has already made it clear that the country needs to take some strong measures and not to give any freebies. What it makes more difficult is that the protestors are not ready to trust the opposition leaders well. Dr. Gulbin said that India’s approach has been cautious during all this. In its statement, New Delhi stated that the country stands with the democratic right of people to protest. India has also been providing assistance for the last four months and the two countries have signed many agreements and MoUs on projects which were delayed for many years. However, when these agreements/MoUs were being signed, many political parties, including the main opposition party were critical of these deals for various reasons. Dr. Gulbin said that in the wake of the crisis, there are some doubts whether any new government in Sri Lanka would continue those agreements/projects. She concluded by saying that India should not stop its assistance as it can create some goodwill among the sections that are critical of India’s role. She ended by saying that India should carefully pursue its national interests. DiscussionThe Director General, Ambassador (R) Sujan R. Chinoy, in his remarks, said that Sri Lanka needs food, fuel, pharma and faith to come out of the crisis. While the Lankans have abundance of faith, the world and India in particular will have to come forth in case of the former three. Ambassador Chinoy pointed out that the crisis goes beyond the ‘China factor’. He said that the Chinese have contributed to the crisis but mainly the problem lies on the Sri Lankan side. If China is such a critical factor then there are a number of countries where China is involved, they should be falling into a similar crisis which is not the case. Ambassador Chinoy said that in this type of crisis China is very unlikely to step in any optical manner. China is likely to come forth to do some restructuring but it is unlikely going to be present physically or materially as it does not want to be castigated as ‘whipping boy’, as it is already accused of being one in some parts of the world. Ambassador Chinoy said that India’s role is going to be crucial for providing food, fuel, and pharma to Sri Lanka. He also pointed out that it is strange that the US was going to spend $54 billion as arms assistance to Ukraine in 2022-2023 to help the latter fight against Russia where Kyiv is still unlikely to get any major success; it is not ready to help Sri Lanka by providing much less: $34 billion. With regard to the possibility of Sri Lankan refugees coming to India, mainly Tamil refugees, Ambassador Chinoy said that though foreign minister S. Jaishankar has said that so far there is no indication but that does not rule out the possibility of them ending up in India as a large number of people of Tamil origin, are having base on the both sides. He also said that the impact of Tamil Nadu politics needs to be analysed. Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) said that it is strange that a promising economy in the recent past and seen as a tourist hub, in five-six years’ time has collapsed. He said that the people want a new political system. Does that mean that they want a system where a popular front (led by the people) should be able to interact with the government? Does that mean it will overcrowd the democratic government? He further stated that imposing schemes like organic farming in a dictatorial style without proper data and without paying any heed to professional advice seemed to have led to unwanted consequences. Cmde. Abhay Singh (Retd.) said that in general it is seen that any conflict, political or otherwise, accentuates social/ethnic fault lines. In Sri Lanka, what is seen as of now is that the participation in the protests has been inclusive. However, the question is that, in case of scarcity of resources and essential commodities, how long will this unity in the protest survive? This will become important when people will start preferring micro interests over the macro ones when they will prefer families, clans, communities, etc. Dr. Smruti S. Pattnaik raised the issue of whether the violence erupted during the peaceful protests were organised and supported by some political parties. She said that there were speculations that SJB had some role in the protests. This is important given the fact that in some incidents some members of some political parties were involved. She said that given all this, the role of some political forces in giving direction to the protests cannot be ruled out entirely. Dr Smruti said that with regard to the deal with the IMF that is being negotiated, it is unlikely to get approved by the international financial body unless there is debt restructuring. Responding to Dr. Smruti’s query on SJB’s involvement in the violence on 9 July, Dr. Gulbin said that speculations are rife in Sri Lanka about the involvement of the Frontline Socialist Party, a breakaway faction of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in organising the violence. The report has been prepared by Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant, MP-IDSA. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” | July 04, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Mr. Pradeep S. Gautam, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “India at G7: Challenges and Way Forward” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 4 July 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive SummaryG7 remains one of the most important multilateral bodies to set the global agenda and tackle emerging challenges. However, it is also faced with internal incoherence on certain issues. As its share in the global GDP has gradually declined, it has chosen to engage more and more with like-minded democracies such as India, in furtherance of its agenda. India must use G7 and similar multilateral bodies, including World Trade Organisation (WTO), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and G20 to maximise its national interests. Although at the same time, it has increasingly become difficult to arrive at a consensus in these multilateral forums. Hence, there is a need to engage countries bilaterally and in smaller groups as well. This effort may only bear fruit if accompanied with necessary domestic reforms. Detailed ReportDr. Rao introduced the topic of the Monday morning meeting by underlining the values and attributes at the core of G7, particularly in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. She also spoke about the group’s most recent meeting in June 2022 and the 28-page communiqué released by the participating leaders, which primarily focused on China and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) programme to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Following the brief introduction, the chair gave the floor to Mr. Gautam. The speaker initially delved into G7’s historical context, i.e., its emergence in response to the 1970s economic crisis and its evolution as a multilateral forum to address global challenges. He also delineated the grouping’s operational framework and its overlapping work with organisations, including the WTO, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and G20. Mr. Gautam further addressed G7’s meeting in Elmau, Germany organised between 26 to 28 June 2022 and laid out the empirical data concerning the inter-governmental forum’s share of the global gross domestic product (GDP) between 1975 and 2020. He mentioned that its highest share of the GDP was visible during the Clinton Presidency. He also examined how there exists an overlap between G7 and G20’s membership. Moving further, the speaker elaborated on issues that have been of vital significance to G7 leaders, primarily taxation of e-commerce multi-national corporations, global infrastructure, global financial stress, and trade and supply chains. In that context, he looked at how the member states have responded to these challenges, the implications for India, and how the latter can move forward regarding these matters of vital concern. Finally, he flagged a few key issues specific to India, including how it requires more data-driven analysis on economic issues, the continuation of a balanced budget, and more reforms to attract global capital. In addition, India’s strength in its domestic economy may help it negotiate better internationally. The speaker underscored the pros and cons of the PGII vis-à-vis the BRI. He also discussed economic distress in developing countries due to COVID lockdowns, the Ukraine war, increasing energy prices, and finally increasing interest rates in the US. While discussing that, he highlighted increasing inflation and interest rates, and the threat of recession in the G7 countries, limiting their bandwidth for international intervention for the next 2-3 years. The speaker highlighted the need for capacity building in negotiating trade deals and effective use of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), trade, and industrial policy to attract international investment and become part of the global supply chain. In addition, the speaker raised other issues of primary importance centred around energy and food security, climate change, and sustainable development. After the speaker brought his presentation to a close, the chair thanked him for his insightful remarks and opened the floor to questions and comments from the audience. The question-and-answer session highlighted diverse perspectives rooted in a detailed analysis of the issue discussed during the meeting. Some of the crucial themes highlighted during the session are as follows: –
This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Monday Morning Meeting on Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar | June 20, 2022 | 1000 | Monday Morning Meeting |
Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Resolution of the "Grey Areas" in the Bay of Bengal: India, Bangladesh and Myanmar” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 20 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Senior scholars, research analysts and interns of the institution were in attendance. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBangladesh’s initiation of arbitration proceedings separately against India and Myanmar, under UNCLOS, resulted in the creation of a “grey area”, having overlapping continental shelf and exclusive economic zone rights, between India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This “grey area”, which is yet to be resolved, hampers maritime security and development of the Bay of Bengal region. DETAILED REPORT Dr. Smruti commenced the session by highlighting that land and maritime boundary settlements between India and Bangladesh continue to remain incomplete. With this context, she introduced the audience to grey areas and the overlapping Continental Shelf and EEZ claims in the Bay of Bengal region. She also noted that the discussion on grey areas cannot remain limited to India and Bangladesh and requires a trilateral focus by featuring Myanmar. DISCUSSION Following Capt. Anurag’s presentation, MP-IDSA scholars had the opportunity to provide their valuable inputs. Dr. Smruti raised questions with regard to Bangladesh’s objections at the CLCS. With references to individual political figures in Bangladesh, she stated that the grey area issue needs domestic contextualisation. She added that the issue is also interlinked to Myanmar’s complicated relationship with Bangladesh and its policies on the Rohingya refugees. In her remarks, Dr. Smruti highlighted that the grey area issue between India and Bangladesh also raises doubts on the ‘Blue Economy’ partnership between the two states. In response to her queries, Capt. Anurag answered that India’s submission at the CLCS can be processed only after Bangladesh and Myanmar withdraw their objections. He reiterated that the impact of the complex relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar can be countered by adopting a phase-by-phase bilateral discussion approach. The report has been prepared by Ms Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA. |
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Interaction with a Media Delegation from the Maldives | May 27, 2022 | Other |
A media delegation from the Maldives, accompanied by Mr. Karan Yadav, First Secretary, Embassy of India, Male, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 27 May 2022, to have an interaction with the Institute. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA; Maj. Gen. (Dr). Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA; Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow; Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Research Fellow; Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow; Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow; and Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, enriched the discussion with their remarks and questions. Executive SummaryThe interactive discussion primarily centered around the following issues– India’s neighbourhood policy under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, the historical and contemporary ties between India and the Maldives, and the increasing and predatory Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the littoral states. Detailed ReportThe event ensued with the Director General’s introductory remarks, welcoming the media delegation to the institute, where he recalled his most recent visit to their country in March 2020. He also mentioned the joint webinar organised by MP-IDSA in conjunction with the South East Asia Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism, Kuala Lumpur, that had taken place earlier that morning, titled “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia.” He also laid out a detailed outline of MP-IDSA’s objectives, mandate, research agenda and its existing infrastructure that facilitates research in diverse areas. The Director General discussed the initiative he took during his stint at the National Security Council Secretariat, where exercise “Dosti,” between the coast guards of India and the Maldives was expanded to include Sri Lanka. He underlined that under Prime Minister Modi, India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” has gained prominence, and its commitment to Maldives has remained intact. India’s policy towards Maldives is based on historic socio-cultural ties that the two countries have shared. It does not have a predatory attitude in its assistance as displayed by some other countries. Additionally, he emphasised how growth and prosperity have moved beyond the Asia-Pacific region to include South Asia and South-East Asia. Today, Bangladesh and, particularly the Maldives, are outperforming India in certain specific sectors. Due to its high standard of living and per capita income being higher than other countries in South Asia, the Maldives has done exceedingly well. Furthermore, it is at the confluence of vital sea channels through which a vast amount of global trade traverses. However, its dependence on tourism to generate revenue and its scattered geography have emerged as two crucial challenges for the island nation. Repatriation and rehabilitation of terrorist fighters returning from conflict zones, confronting foreign influences, and radicalisation are also some of the notable challenges it faces. The Director General even underscored how major powers such as the United States of America, France, and the United Kingdom, have maintained their presence in the Indo-Pacific region in several ways, including through their military presence. Today, Russians are also displaying renewed interest and are engaged in bilateral and trilateral exercises. He also emphasised that the current President of the United Nations General Assembly, Abdulla Shahid, will significantly contribute to the international body due to his vast expertise and experience. The following points emerged from the floor during discussion. One of the central themes, specifically regarding growing Chinese influence, was taken up, and it was discussed whether or not that is a factor in determining the scale of India’s involvement in the region. It was concluded that India has always been focused on neighbourhood growth and prosperity irrespective of China's activities. Prime Minister Modi’s policy of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” reflects this. At the same time, one must understand that China’s rise is linked to its vast investments and is guided by its growing strategic interest. Its presence in the South Asian region contradicts its historical positioning and has only occurred over the past two decades. Therefore, China must be transparent about its investment and should not create a dependency-based relationship akin to Sri Lanka. While India has reservations about Chinese actions, it does whatever it can to support its neighbours to chart an alternative path, including extending lines of credit without any strings attached. It has built a hospital in Malé and is currently involved in 45 projects in the country, largely micro projects, in contrast to China which is only involved in grander projects like the airport and port development. Another difference between the Indian and Chinese involvement is that while the former promotes inclusive and holistic growth, the latter can be characterised as predatory, aggressive, and fomenting divisiveness. Moreover, instead of cooperation with other countries, China has chosen the path of isolation. In the western Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Chinese boats engage in illegal fishing in most months of the year. Therefore, the joint statement made by the QUAD partners in their recent summit even appealed to spread maritime awareness and halt illegal fishing, which has several ecological implications, including oil spills. Moreover, China’s rise in the IOR has to be understood by the factors driving its strategy. Overarching trade interests, access to Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and ambition to mine crucial resources like Cobalt embedded in the sea bed, for which it has taken acreage down south, require its presence in and control of the oceanic spheres. Maritime piracy has allowed it to establish its naval domination and follow a neo-colonial approach. It is necessary to realise that it wants to de-link from the global supply chains and create dependency of the international community on the Chinese supply chains through such initiatives, thereby shaping the world in their likeness. Transnational issues such as Islamist terrorism were also discussed. While this could be a challenge for India, it can become an existential threat for countries like Maldives due to the latter’s homogenous structure. As has been seen in the past, it becomes easier for non-state actors to stage a coup. The participants also took up the matter of “India Out” campaign, directed against India. It was concluded that it is a highly politicised campaign and does not reflect popular sentiment. The Maldivians are unconcerned with who invests in the developmental sectors as long as it benefits them. However, it is critical to analyse where such propaganda is originating from and who is funding such activities. It was also noted that India has no interest in maintaining a military presence in the island nation. Any such presence visible has always been at the behest of the Maldivian government, including in 1988, when the Indian Armed Forces thwarted a coup led by Abdullah Luthufi against the then President Abdul Gayoom. Indians came to his aid faster than the Americans, whose nearest military base, Diego Garcia, is located 1000 kilometres away, in far closer proximity. The session concluded with the possibility of future exchanges and a visit of the Indian delegation to the island country in the foreseeable future. Report prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre. |
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Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” | June 13, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Md. Muddassir Quamar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Decoding Turkish Foreign Policy Recalibration” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 13 June 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. P. K. Pradhan, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars, research analysts and interns of MP-IDSA. Executive SummarySince 2021, Turkish foreign policy approach towards the West Asian region has seen significant alterations. Turkey is now reconciling its relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict underline a degree of foreign policy recalibration. The presentation highlighted the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy and focused on its reconciliation process towards the West Asian and North African region. While explaining the Turkish foreign policy recalibration, the speaker focused on the domestic, regional and international factors which have driven this change. Detailed ReportDr. Md. Muddassir Quamar started his presentation by giving an overview of Turkish foreign policy and defining the key guiding principles of Turkey’s foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These principles are neo-Ottomanism, pan-Islamism, strategic depth, zero-problem with neighbours and blue homeland. He further stated that Turkey’s approach towards the region contributed to geopolitical competition in the Middle East over the past decade. Following the principle of neo-Ottomanism and pan-Islamism, Erdogan has tried to achieve the glory of the Ottoman Empire and projected Turkey as a leader of the Islamic world. The doctrine of strategic depth asserts that Turkey should have greater influence in the areas around its borders and should expand its relations with the periphery. It also follows the zero-problem with neighbours policy which is part of its strategic depth doctrine. According to the speaker, the zero-problem with neighbours’ policy has proved to be a zero-friend policy for Turkey in West Asia. Turkey’s blue homeland policy focuses on Turkish influence in maritime domains, especially in the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. All these policies created a geopolitical quagmire in West Asia that got aggravated after the Arab Spring, where Turkey played a very crucial role as a major regional power in intensifying regional rivalries. This led to serious problems between Turkey and regional countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirate (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Israel. Dr. Quamar said that since 2021 there has been a noticeable shift in Turkish foreign policy towards the region. While highlighting the shifts, he explained the changing relations of Turkey with Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. There is also a visible shift when it comes to its policy towards conflict in Libya and Syria. Furthermore, its approach towards Greece, Armenia and Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen a certain degree of change. With regard to the UAE, there have been important diplomatic visits between the two countries. In November 2021, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Turkey and this was reciprocated by President Erdogan’s visit to UAE in February 2022. The reconciliation process between Turkey and UAE has centred on deepening trade and economic relations, especially in the defence sector along with health, food security and climate change. Apart from economic issues, the two countries are also discussing regional issues of mutual interest, such as the situation in Libya and Syria. Similarly, relations between Turkey and Israel have also been changing. Though Operation Cast Lead and the Mavi Marmara Incident caused deterioration in relations between the two countries, in the last few years engagement between them has improved. Both the countries are having an exchange of high-level visits such as, Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey in March 2022. According to Dr. Quamar, the focus of these engagements is on improving energy, trade and economic ties. However, the Palestinian issues and Turkish indirect support to Hamas can be an issue of friction. Due to this reason, one cannot be certain about the success of the process of reconciliation between Israel and Turkey. According to Dr. Quamar, another important development from the Turkish foreign policy point of view has been the reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Both are trying to move ahead from the Khashoggi crisis that adversely impacted relations between the two. This reconciliation process also highlights that Turkey is ready to end the isolation of Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud from regional and international politics. Turkish foreign policy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia has also been driven by economic factors. However, the speaker observed that there are issues which can derail the reconciliation process, namely, the competition between the two for global Islamic leadership. Though, Dr. Quamar underlined the uncertainty about whether Turkey will completely abandon the Muslim Brotherhood or not, he said that Ankara has shown willingness to be more accommodative towards the concerns of regional countries such as, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt which are sensitive about giving space to Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, similar to other countries, economic ties are a major point of focus of Turkish reconciliation with Egypt. While discussing the reasons for Turkish foreign policy recalibration, Dr. Quamar said that there are domestic, regional and international factors for this policy. However, the most important ones are domestic factors. The Turkish economy is going through a difficult time wherein inflation in the country has increased by 70 per cent. There has been a drop in the value of Lira and a rise in poverty. In addition, the country has also witnessed a decline in tourism and exports. Politically, it is the first time that the Turkish opposition is feeling confident in challenging Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The results of the 2019 municipal elections underlined that Erdogan’s support base is also shrinking. However, Dr. Quamar said that this might not be sufficient to replace Erdogan. According to him, another domestic political reason for recalibration is Turkey’s 2023 elections. While discussing the regional and international factors, Dr. Quamar said that the Abraham Accords (2020) have broken Turkish exceptionalism, because Turkey was the only country which had good relations with Israel, despite having diplomatic issues. According to him, the Abraham Accords which have initiated a regional process of normalisation of ties between Israel and the Gulf countries, might be a major reason for alteration in Turkey’s foreign policy. Furthermore, the end of GCC crises after the Al Ula Declaration contributed in changing its foreign policy approach. According to Dr. Quamar, there have been regional dialogues and talks such as those between Iran-Saudi Arabia, UAE-Syria and Egypt-Qatar. It seems Turkey is also following these regional trends. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis and change of administration in the US are other factors for alteration in Turkey’s approach towards the region. While discussing the implications, Dr. Quamar said it is difficult to say whether these recalibration efforts will ease regional tensions or they will sustain. He finally noted that the Turkish foreign policy approach provides India a window of opportunity in the economic and political domains. Important Points Made in the Q&A Session
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Eurasia & West Asia | Turkey, Foreign Policy | |||
Report on “Countering the Threat of Radicalisation in India and Malaysia” MP-IDSA – SEARCCT Joint Webinar | May 27, 2022 | Other |
The joint webinar on radicalisation in India and Malaysia was held on 27 May 2022 and was organised by MP-IDSA and SEARCCT, Malaysia. The Director-General MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and Director-General SEARCCT, Ambassador Dato’ Ganeson Sivagurunathan delivered the opening remarks and chaired respective sessions of the programme. During the first session, Dr. Ahmad El-Muhammady Bin Muhammad Uthman El-Muhammady spoke on “Radicalisation in Malaysia.” He was succeeded by Mr. Supt Loo Chee Lum who spoke on “Capacity Building Programmes,” and Ms. Pa Arul Malar Palaniveloo who talked about “Youth & P/CVE - Counter Messaging, Social Media and Outreach.” During the second session, Shri Pradeep Gautam delivered his remarks on “The Threat of Religious Ideological Extremism in the Indian Subcontinent,” followed by Dr. Adil Rasheed who spoke on “India’s Counter Radicalisation: Measures and Programmes,” and Ms. Shruti Pandalai who spoke on “Combating Radicalisation in the Social Media: The Indian Experience.” India’s High Commissioner to Malaysia Shri B.N. Reddy also gave his comments which was followed by an interactive Q&A session. The webinar was concluded with closing remarks from the Deputy Director-General at MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and Deputy Director-General at SEARCCT, Ambassador Khairi Omar. Executive Summary:The session was helpful in bringing forth the issue of radicalisation and its impact from an inter-regional perspective. The speakers shared their insights on the nature of radicalisation in India and Malaysia which would be vital in developing counter strategies that address these specific areas. Despite robust programs in both countries on counter terrorism and counter radicalisation, it was agreed that regular updating with the evolving discourse is essential, and corresponding training of the personnel is therefore necessary. The issue of online radicalisation and role of technology both as a challenge and as a tool to fight radicalisation was elaborated upon. It was agreed that novel ways of reaching to the public by extremist groups will necessitate innovative ways by the governments in countering such narratives. Therefore, Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) will be an evolving methodology that grows in response to the tactics adopted by the extremist and radical groups. Detailed Report:Ambassador Chinoy began the session with his opening remarks and underscored the good relations between India and Malaysia, along with their shared concern over terrorism which has also impacted economic growth. He spoke of the increasing threat of terror groups’ access to Weapons of Mass Destruction and how that has worried governments. After the success of Taliban in Afghanistan, terrorist groups across the world have been emboldened. Ambassador Chinoy outlined the efforts India has made on working on legislation to curb terrorism, border management and elaborated on the impetus given to appropriate training of its law enforcement personnel to tackle such terrorist threats. India has also engaged with multilateral institutions and the UN to create frameworks on curbing terrorism, including pushing for a comprehensive global convention on terrorism. The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-IDSA. |