Title | Date | Author | Time | Event | Body | Research Area | Topics | File attachments | Image |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Revisiting the Cyber Aspects of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict | June 06, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, in the Strategic Technologies Centre at the Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Revisiting the the Cyber Aspects of the Russia- Ukraine Conflict” at the Monday morning meeting held on 6 June 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in the attendance. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYOver the past couple of months, the world has witnessed that conventional warfare has a brother in arms – namely cyber warfare. Microsoft’s report dated 27 April 2022 clearly underlined the extent of cyber attacks on Ukrainian soil. The effects of this are temporarily debilitating but it is bound to leave a permanent mark on the military strategy of any aggressor country in the years to come. DETAILED REPORTDr. Rajeesh Kumar, the moderator, during his opening remarks, introduced the attendees to the capability of Russian cyber malware to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. He also added that, this does not pertain only to the Russian-Ukraine war but every warfare has a cyber element present in it. DISCUSSIONDeputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi stated that the Russians were the first to recognise the criticality of information warfare to national security and cited the 2015 Russian National Security Strategy document to shed light on the centrality of this aspect. He also brought into attention the Crimean campaign and the extensive use of information warfare which was in turn meticulously studied by countries like UK and the USA. The US cyber command was given the status of a combatant command by the USA and the UK’s 77th brigade was turned into an information manoeuvre organisation as information is the lifeblood of the battlefield. He also highlighted the underplaying of the Russian cyber salvo by the media and the synchronisation between kinetic and cyber warfare domain. As a part of his closing remarks, he stressed upon the prospects of lessons for India in both in the defensive and offensive domain. |
Non-Traditional Security | Cyber Security, Russia-Ukraine Relations | |||
Panel Discussion on "Civil-Military Fusion in India” | June 14, 2022 | 1100 hrs | Other |
Event ReportThe Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a Panel Discussion on “Civil-Military Fusion in India” on Tuesday, 14 June 2022 at 1100h in the MP-IDSA Auditorium. The discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA who also delivered the opening remarks. The Keynote Address was delivered by Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla, PVSM, YSM, SM, ADC, (Retd.) ex GOC-in-C ARTRAC and discussants included Lt. Gen. C.P. Mohanty, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM (Retd.), former Vice Chief of Army Staff, Shri Sanjay Mitra, former Defence Secretary, Government of India and AVM Anil Golani (Retd.). The vote of thanks was delivered by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA. The event was attended by the scholars of MP-IDSA and distinguished serving and retired officers of the Indian Armed Forces, Ministry of Defence, scholars from prominent Think Tanks as also representatives from CII and private industry. The event was also live-streamed on YouTube. Executive Summary The concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) denotes the convergence of military and civilian resources and systems for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power both during war and peacetime. The circulation of resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia has been inadequate in India. There is an urgent need for opening up hitherto fore protected areas such as high-end technology defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. A revolving door mechanism between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’ and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. In the early years after Independence, the then prevailing political maxims of India discouraged entrepreneur zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars of wealth creation. Qualitative aggregation of resources and capacity from both the civil and military domains is the cornerstone of CMF. The granite walls that exist between the silos of civil and military institutions must be collapsed in order to allow seamless infusion of talent and capacities in the military, civil services, scientific community, academia, industries, domain experts, technologists and entrepreneurs. The ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic is a clear example of the interdependence of technology and global supply chains. The complex security challenges of the Twenty-First Century demand complex security responses. Detailed Report Col. Deepak Kumar, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA welcomed the forum by extending his warm wishes to the distinguished panellists, attendees and scholars from MP-IDSA. He described the concept of Civil-Military Fusion (CMF) as the process of combining civil and military resources for achieving a very high level of technological competence. Col. Kumar stated that the civil society and military have corroborated in the past, especially during the Second World War in countries like the US, Japan and Germany. With these remarks, Col. Kumar welcomed Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General, MP-IDSA to deliver his opening remarks to the august gathering. Opening RemarksAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy began his opening remarks by defining the concept of CMF as the convergence of military and civilian resources for maximising a nation’s ability to express its comprehensive national power, both during war and peacetime. He described dual-use technologies and collaborations as the heart of civil-military confluence. The Director General pointed out that there have been several instances where military R&D and private enterprises have developed cutting-edge technologies and services that have been used in both the civilian and military domains. He stated that the CMF has gained prominence in recent years mainly due to an array of initiatives taken by Chinese President Xi Jinping towards enhancing CMF in China. The Director-General also brought out that the initiation of CMF in China predates the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had established defence industries in different parts of China during the Chinese Civil War itself. He stated that after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s the PRC increased its focus on CMF even further in order to achieve a high degree of self-reliance in diverse fields like atomic bombs, space and defence equipment. During the 1990s China’s defence industries also engaged in manufacturing consumer goods. He recalled that during this era the PLA, in order to raise funds for its modernisation drive, engaged in commercial activities like running hotels, resorts and golf clubs. Eventually, in 1998 the then Chinese President Jiang Zemin banned such activities and directed the PLA to focus on its core soldiering activities while assuring adequate funding for its modernisation efforts. Taking this into context, the Director General stressed that the Government must ensure adequate funding and resources for ensuring CMF develops in a manner that facilitates a nation in achieving its national objective. The Director General brought out that China is renowned for utilising its academia, scientists, students and entrepreneurs to gain knowledge and intelligence to further its strategic objectives. He highlighted the fact that CMF has been absorbed throughout the annals of history and averred that the foundation of British Colonialism in India was laid through the successful CMF between the British East India Company and the British Crown. He accentuated the fact that with the proliferation of dual-use technologies and the advent of niche technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics and drones the relevance and scope of CMF has been expanding. He brought out that the strategic discourse in India is centred only on jointness among the three services and the need for inclusion of the military into the higher decision-making structures of the Government. He suggested that there is an urgent need for opening up protected areas such as defence manufacturing, space and cyber technologies to the private sector which has enormous talent and resources. He brought out/ stated that although the Government has taken many steps toward enhancing CMF, much more needs to be done. The Director General underscored the importance of the circulation of human resources between civilian and military departments as well as private industry and academia which has been inadequate in India. He opined that a revolving door system between civil and military as practiced in the US will be highly advantageous for India and this would facilitate ‘Make in India’and ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ in defence manufacturing. He also suggested that India must evolve its own model for CMF given its historic experience, circumstances and resources. With these remarks, Ambassador Chinoy welcomed Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla to deliver the Keynote Address. Key Note Address Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla started his keynote address by recalling his brief stint in MP-IDSA in 2009 as a scholar pursuing research in the area of Civil-Military Relations (CMR). He also recalled the redundant nature of the discourse that then prevailed with regard to CMR in India. Gen. Shukla brought into perspective the evolution of CMF in India since its independence. He stated that the degree of paranoia and suspicion that existed between the civilian leadership and the military in the early years after Independence due to the military coups across India’s neighbourhood, greatly undermined the prospects of CMF in India. He also brought out that the then prevailing political maxims in India discouraged entrepreneurial zeal, business development and capacity building which are the key pillars in wealth creation. Gen Shukla then went on to highlight the key components of comprehensive military power which include jointness among services and technological prowess. He stated that developing each of these characteristics involves decades of policy making and efforts to materialise them on the ground. This has been evident from India’s efforts to implement jointness among the three services. He pointed out that the current initiatives regarding CMF involve bringing together attributes and talents from diverse domains in the resolute pursuit of national security interest. Gen. Shukla then proceeded to the next segment of his address where he brought out some credible examples to illustrate CMF. The first example that he cited was that of the United States Army Futures Command (AFC) which was established as the Americans realised that they were falling behind in the technological and innovation game with China. The military-academic complex of China is posing a very serious threat to the famed military-industrial complex of the US. Gen. Shukla recalled his meeting with a General of AFC who described this military command as a public-private partnership. The rationale behind the conception of the AFC was to converge the best of both, the public and private sectors, for creating a culture of innovation and delivery. The AFC is strategically located in the city of Austin which is the capital of Texas and is considered to be America’s innovation hub. He described the AFC as a mature entrepreneurial incubator hub with access to cutting-edge talents. The AFC has been a top recruiter of talented students, professionals and entrepreneurs by capitalising on the robust startup ecosystem in Austin. He brought out that entrepreneurs like Elon Musk and his company SpaceX have been the prime driving force behind the revolutionary metamorphosis that the American Military-Industrial complex is currently undergoing. Gen. Shukla underscored that the AFC is an example that denotes the complexity of CMF that encompasses numerous layers and nuances. Panels Discussion First Discussant: Mr. Sanjay Mitra Important points made during Q&A session
The panel discussion was followed by a lively Q&A session and a vote of thanks by Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen.(Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) who stressed that self-reliance in developing cutting-edge military technology will hinge on the aggregation of India's civil, military, industry and academia. Key Takeaways
Report Prepared by Mr. R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Centre, and Dr. Jatin Kumar, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
|||||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ | May 30, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Takeaways from Tokyo Summit, 2022: Quad ‘a force for good’ ” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 May 2022. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA. Executive Summary In the recently concluded Quad Summit held in Tokyo, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi had described Quad as a force of good in terms of creating a positive vision for the nation. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that was unveiled a day before the summit is a major economic effort by the Quad nations to address the trade deficit among the nations in the region. The IPEF is not a traditional Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but a trade facilitation framework to formulate a common set of rules and standards for the member states. The IPEF is bound to bring coherence to rules and procedures which can effectively reduce non-tariff barriers and facilitate a smooth flow of trade. Although the Quad never really laid emphasis on hard security issues, the latest joint statement has made Quad’s security concerns with China very upfront if not explicit. Detailed Report
The consensus among the four leaders on the view that the unilateral change of the status quo through the use of force will not be tolerated in the Indo-Pacific or in any other region was described by Cmde. Singh as the key highlight of Quad Summit. Making the assessment of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh inferred that the key focus of the Quad nations was on delivering the agendas that were agreed upon during the previous iterations of the summit. He also noted that through the joint statement the four nations have signaled their political consensus and commitment to work together for creating tangible benefits in the following areas:
Pointing out certain shortcomings in the Quad, Cmde. Singh stated that despite President Biden reiterating that his policy is sharply focused on managing China, there has been criticism that the Quad remains short on American fiscal and policy support. He stated that it has become clear that the Quad nations along with other nations of the region must supplement the shortcomings of the US. He brought out that the election of the Labor Government in Australia that has been known to be sympathetic towards China’s rise, may affect the nation’s future commitment towards Quad, despite the assurances of Mr. Anthony Albanese. On India, he stated that Russia not being explicitly mentioned in the Joint Statement is mainly due to India’s sensitivity and this signifies major divergence between India and the rest of the Quad nations. Cmde. Singh concluded his presentation by describing Japan as the most consistent nation among the Quad, as its core agenda remains unchanged, despite the change of three consecutive Prime Ministers.
|
Military Affairs | ||||
Africa Day Webinar on “The African Union @ 20: Addressing Peace & Security Challenges” | May 24, 2022 | 1530 hrs | Other |
The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the African Studies Association of India (ASA India) organised an Africa Day Webinar on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges” on 24 May 2022 at 1530 hours IST. The welcome remarks were delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the special remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam, Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India. The introductory remarks were given by Professor Ajay Dubey. Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, chaired the panel discussion. The panelists included Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae, Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Dr. Alex Vines OBE and Ms. Ruchita Beri. The concluding remarks were delivered by Ambassador Shashank. Ms. Sindhu Dinesh proposed the vote of thanks. The webinar was attended by MP-IDSA scholars and guest attendees including African Heads of Missions in India, officials from the Ministry of Defence and members of various think tanks and universities. Executive SummaryThe webinar brought out perceptive inputs on the theme “The AU @ 20: Addressing Peace and Security Challenges”. Ambassadors, eminent scholars and experts from India and Africa served on the panel. As the African Union (AU) celebrates its 20th anniversary, its achievements in building regional consensus and efforts in transforming the continent were acknowledged. The peace and security challenges facing the African continent are diverse and complex. The AU faces several hurdles in dealing with these challenges. It must be recognised that foreign intervention is proving to be counter-productive and African countries must rely on themselves to solve the problems. Some speakers emphasised the continent's pressing governance and security issues. Under the auspices of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have engaged in violent conflicts using a variety of non-military tools. However, rising conflicts in Africa have demonstrated that APSA has failed to fulfil its mandate after more than a decade of existence. Many speakers further emphasised the significance of "African solutions for African problems". Another theme of the webinar was the importance of India-Africa relations and the necessity of keeping the pan-African tier of engagement. There was a strong push for South-South cooperation, particularly in areas such as clean technology, climate-resilient agriculture, and counter-terrorism cooperation. It was underscored that institutionalised mechanisms like the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD) were important in promoting India-Africa ties and must be regularised. Detailed ReportInaugural Session The webinar began with welcome remarks by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy (Director General, MP-IDSA). At the outset, he acknowledged the distinguished speakers and guests for their presence, the collaborative partner ASA India for jointly organising the webinar and extended a warm welcome to all the participants. Sharing that MP-IDSA has been organising an Africa Day Round Table for the last six years to commemorate Africa Day, he stated these dialogues had provided well-established platforms to deliberate on India-Africa relations. He remarked that the increased high-level visits to African nations over the last eight years and the initiatives taken under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Modi were aimed at transforming India’s ties with Africa. Ambassador Chinoy shed light on the historically close ties and maritime links of India and Africa, the role of diaspora, India’s steadfast support for Africa’s liberation from colonialism and apartheid, and the mutual support between the two in their struggle to attain independence. Stating that the theme of the webinar was timely and of great interest, he recognised the commendable achievements of the AU in resolving regional conflicts and promoting sustainable development. Mentioning the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food and energy security amidst the challenge of a pandemic, Ambassador Chinoy assessed that the three foremost important objectives for African nations will be economic recovery, healthcare and food security. Stating that security arrangements in Europe and the multilateral system had failed to deliver peace and security, he appreciated the AU’s efforts in building regional consensus. Ambassador Chinoy underscored the importance attached to institutionalised mechanisms like IAFS and IADD in promoting India-Africa ties. Stating that India is committed to being a reliable development partner for Africa, he highlighted India’s Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme, timely medical and humanitarian assistance to African countries during the pandemic, India’s contribution to the United Nations Peacekeeping (UNPK) operations in Africa and anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and shared maritime interests in developing a blue economy. He opined that strong India-Africa ties would strengthen multipolarity and expressed optimism that the webinar discussion would help build a better future together. Professor Ajay Dubey (Rector, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Secretary General, ASA India) acknowledged the guests and participants on behalf of ASA India and thanked MP-IDSA for partnering with them. Underscoring that Africa is an important continent for India, he shed light on the old and diverse academic engagements in Indian universities on African studies. Stating that the AU celebrating 20 years is a culmination of the African dream of Pan-Africanism, he spoke about the initial formation of the organisation in 2002 and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) established in 1963. Remarking that peace and security were important objectives that African people have decided for themselves, Professor Dubey opined that in its approach to peace and security, the AU had learnt from organisations like South African Development Community (SADC) and others with similar objectives. Professor Dubey assessed that the major challenges for AU in addressing peace and security include terrorism in all its forms, internal terrorism, cross-border terrorism, religious terrorism and violent extremism; democratic backsliding which is giving rise to conflicts; threats to maritime security; challenges emanating from underdevelopment which include human security and climate security issues besides the pandemic and other common problems facing the continent. He agreed with Ambassador Chinoy that models like the IAFS and IADD were important and need to be continued. H.E. Mr. Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam (Ambassador of Eritrea to India and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, India) began his special remarks by thanking the webinar organisers and appreciated India’s steady commitment to developing India-Africa relations which he has witnessed during his tenure in India. He remarked that the webinar theme was timely and of critical importance to the African continent. Sharing the multifaceted peace and security challenges facing Africa that range from inter-state and intra-state political instability to foreign interventions and unemployment, he stated that the problems facing Africa were as diverse as its countries and people. He identified that there was no single or quick solution to these problems and opined that the contemporary history of Africa proves that external intervention was instead prolonging their problems. He argued that the best if not the only solution was for African countries to solve their problems themselves. Ambassador Woldemariam shed light on several other challenges like the arbitrary boundary demarcation by the colonisers which has led to separatist movements intertwined with terrorist activities. He underscored that Africa which accounts for 41 per cent of ISIS attacks has become the main target of international terrorism. He assessed that the economic cost of terrorism which has surged to USD 171 billion could have instead been invested in the continent’s development and betterment of livelihood. Ambassador Woldemariam strongly opined that multipronged and collective efforts would help address the root causes of conflict in Africa and achieve socio-economic development. He added that strong government, sound policy, efficient institutions and corruption-free civil service were also among the many requirements along with strengthening cooperation between regional and sub-regional organisations in Africa. Ambassador Woldemariam stated that all these efforts must be supported at the national and regional levels through institution building based on principles of partnership. Recognising AU’s efforts in transforming the continent, he argued that one of its hurdles was excessive dependence on foreign financial assistance which comes with conditions that compromise policy independence. Ambassador Woldemariam underscored that the spirit of South-South Cooperation should be bolstered to solve common problems and stated that India was at the heart of this framework. He concluded by calling for unconditional cooperation between India and Africa and expressed thanks to the Government of India for its support to African countries. Panel Discussion The panel discussion was chaired by Ambassador Anil Trigunayat (Former Ambassador of India to Libya and Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)). He started the discussion by stating that we frequently think of Africa as a single entity, despite the fact that this identity is fading. He continued by saying that Africa is a kaleidoscope of culture, civilization, colours, and beauty that one should see and experience. Ambassador Trigunayat mentioned how the pandemic has affected the African continent and how India has tried its best to be a part of Africa's and AU's journey, whether it is peacekeeping, capacity building, or providing infrastructural assistance at all times. He underscored that Prime Minister Modi's event in Kampala provided a clear vision for strengthening cooperation and mutual capacities in combating terrorism and extremism across the continent. Professor Eghosa E. Osaghae (Director General, Nigeria Institute for International Affairs, Nigeria) began by indicating that AU's principal goals have shifted from political integration to economic integration, the prosperity of African people, and the need for peace and security in the continent. In terms of addressing peace and security concerns, the first thing that has become increasingly evident is that peace and security challenges in Africa must be viewed holistically. As the world deals with the repercussions of the Ukraine crisis, it is clear that whatever occurs in one part of the world influences what happens in other areas of the world. Professor Osaghae also briefly noted the AU's peace and security architecture's admirable achievements, particularly the actions of the "Panel of the Wise" since its inception. African peace and security architecture also envisions a strong partnership between the EU and regional organisations such as SADC in South Africa and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in West Africa, among others. It has been more challenging than ever before, but Africa today recognises that terrorism, insurgency, and human rights violations are not merely African issues, but also significant global concerns. In his final remarks, Professor Osaghae emphasised that Africa would do well to handle what it is capable of doing, but Africa does better when it can collaborate with global players. He added that India has been a strong supporter of Africa, and that as the AU celebrates its 20th anniversary, partners like India will provide even more motivation to move forward. Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos (Chief Executive Officer of the South African Institute of International Affairs, South Africa) opened her presentation by expressing concern that the current geopolitical framework may exacerbate some of Africa's peace and security challenges. She explored institutional realignment, increased civil society engagement, operational efficacy, and financial independence in her speech. The lack of good governance has limited the government's authority to function, notably in preserving peace and security, as well as fostering economic growth and wealth creation, which are required to combat poverty and foster human development in the case of many African countries. Ms. Sidiropoulos went on to argue that rather than focusing primarily on hard-core peace and security concerns, African communities, citizens, and African leaders should prioritise good governance. Ms. Sidiropoulos concluded by referring to the Afrobarometer survey, which stated that unemployment remains one of the most pressing issues that Africans want their governments to address. As per the survey results, South Africans are dissatisfied with the government's handling of income disparities, price stability, and the economy in general. She emphasised that perceptions towards the AU are shifting, and the fundamental problem that African countries must tackle on their own is a lack of accountability in governance mechanisms. Dr. Alex Vines OBE (Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House, UK) began on a positive note by emphasising some of the AU's recent gains in terms of peace and security. He did, however, argue that there has been a sense of urgency to reform, evaluate, and rethink as the African continent transforms. He used the example of how standby forces do not always meet the issues that continental security necessitates. The Lake Chad basin countries' Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to collaborate against Boko Haram insurgents has been plagued with crises due to varying commitment to the force, budget issues, and fragmented planning. Dr. Vines reiterated that there have been areas of the AU vision that have been less impressive over the previous 20 years, notably on the legislative side. Traditional and technological organs have remained poor. The Pan-African Parliament and the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council are essentially advisory organisations with hardly any power. The AU's Peace and Security Council is faced with tough choices. He stated that the process of reforming the organisation, led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, had created discord among the Commission's leaders. For over five years, the procedure paralysed employees and damaged the AU Commission. In his closing remarks, he cited the Afro-barometer survey mentioned by Ms. Sidiropoulos, which stated Africans are frustrated that jobs are not being created on the continent and that 35 per cent of citizens regard the AU as completely irrelevant to their daily lives. This poses a significant challenge for the AU to become more people-centered, serving the needs of its own people. Ms. Ruchita Beri (Senior Associate and Coordinator, Africa, LAC, and UN Centre, MP-IDSA) shared her thoughts on three themes. She began by discussing the AU's recent achievements in terms of leadership in addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic, peaceful elections, and so forth. She also considered the significant hurdles that AU continues to face, such as, rise in conflict, unconstitutional changes of government and terrorism. Recognising the challenges that post-Covid-19 peacebuilding faces, she focused on how the AU might promote complementarities at the strategic and operational levels throughout the peace–development nexus. Ms. Beri drew attention to the growing threat of terrorism and the need for AU to work on concentrated and coordinated efforts to address the fundamental root causes of terrorism and violent extremism. She also discussed the continent's food security concerns and why the AU should prioritise agriculture and food security as the foundation for economic development and progress. She concluded her speech by bringing up India-Africa relations in the current scenario. Ms. Beri proposed the next IAFS should be held soon, in partnership with the AU. She also proposed that India invite African Union to open a mission in India. She hoped that the organisation shall redouble its efforts to confront the challenges. During the Q/A session, the panellists discussed the rational foundation of the lived values and attitudes entrenched in African ethics by situating them within global ethics and the developing new world order, analysing their validity, and potential contributions. Prof. Osaghae believes that African values are an essential component of global values. Furthermore, global values will be meaningless if there is no African or Asian component - all of those elements work together to generate the composite known as global values. Concluding Session Ambassador Shashank (Former Foreign Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India) made the concluding remarks at the webinar. He advised that African countries should consider utilising India's assets to promote their own internal cyber capabilities. He also recommended that if small and medium-sized enterprises in India and Africa worked together, they might set up with an aim to give employment, inspiration, and so on to young people, similar to the Nirvana movement that began in India. Ambassador Shashank suggested that people-to-people exchanges between India and Africa in a range of domains, including professional, legal, business, and grassroots occupations should be prioritised. The vote of thanks was proposed by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh (Research Analyst, MP-IDSA), after which the webinar concluded. The report was prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Bulbul Prakash, Intern, Africa, LAC and UN Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN | Africa | |||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry” | May 23, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on ‘Sanctions on the Russian Defence Industry’ at the Monday Morning meeting, which was held on 23 May 2022 at 10 AM in the auditorium. The session was moderated by Col. Manish Rana, SM, Research Fellow, and Centre Coordinator, Defence Economics and Industry Centre. Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and the scholars were in attendance. Executive SummaryThe Russian Federation’s defence industry, apart from different sectors of its economy, has been under various sanctions, primarily by the United States and the European Union, since 2014, in the aftermath of Moscow’s military interventions in Crimea. In the wake of its February 2022 military action in Ukraine, these sanctions have been further strengthened. The sanctions have targeted key Russian arms producing firms, their design bureaus, export organisations and their leadership, as well as the export and import of dual-use products. Given that India is one of the largest importers of Russian arms, it has been impacted by such sanctions. The presentation discussed the different US and EU sanctions, and the implications they have had for countries like Turkey and Indonesia. The discussion also pertained to the impact on India’s current arms procurement programmes from Russia. Detailed ReportDr. Rajiv began his presentation by noting that the Russian Federation is one of the major global arms exporters. Its share of global arms trade, however, has gradually decreased, from 26 per cent in 2011-15, to 19 per cent in 2017-21 (as per SIPRI data). India has been the largest importer of Russian arms, accounting for nearly 34 per cent of Russia’s exports, during 2011-21, followed by China, at about 13 per cent. As a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine since 2014, with the latest being the offensive that began in February 2022, Russia has been subject to sanctions measures by the United States, European Union and other countries. As part of European Union (EU) sanctions, more than a thousand individuals and 80 entities are subject to travel bans and asset freezes. Sanctions have targeted 70 per cent of Russia’s banking system (as per the EU’s contention) and have closed EU airspace and ports to Russian aircraft and vessels. Stricter export controls on dual-use goods have been imposed, restricting Russia’s access to dual-use technology. They have also banned exports of luxury goods and semi-conductors and imports of key Russian products like steel (with effect from August 2022), coal, cement, among other items. Sanction measures have also targeted Russian ‘dis-information’ actors. As regards defence and dual-use sectors, business transactions with key companies in the aviation, military and dual use, shipbuilding and machine building sectors are threatened to be sanctioned. It remains to be seen how effectively these sanctions will be implemented. Prior to the latest round of sanctions, the EU arms export and import ban has been in place since July 2014. However, more than EUR 900 million of defence trade took place between EU states and Russia, during 2010-20, with a significant portion of it contributed by countries like France, Germany and Italy. The 2014 ban does not prohibit servicing of spares etc. for contracts entered into prior to August 2014. There has been a reduction, though, in arms export licenses from EU states to Russia, decreasing from 940 in 2013 to 86 in 2020. EU states insist, therefore, that they have been strictly following the sanctions measures. As for US sanctions, it was pointed out that the Ukraine Freedom Support Act 2014 threatened sanctions against persons facilitating financial transactions with Russian producers, transferors and producers of defence articles. CAATSA, passed in August 2017 as a punitive measure against Russia (and Iran as well as North Korea), threatened sanctions for engaging in ‘significant’ transactions with the defence and intelligence sectors of Russia. Nearly 90 individuals and entities are part of the Sec 231(e), list of Specified Persons, transactions with whom will invite US sanctions. These include major Russian entities like Almaz-Antey Corp., Kalashnikov, NPO Mashinostroyeniya, Admiralty Shipyards, Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, Aviation Corporation Sukhoi, among others. CAATSA sanctions have been imposed against China (in August 2018) and Turkey (in December 2020). Turkey has also been removed from the F-35 programme in June 2019, for its S-400 deal, which was announced in December 2017. Apart from Turkey, countries like Indonesia and Morocco, have also backed out of deals/negotiations to buy Russian defence equipment, like Su-35 fighter jets and the S-400. India ordered five units of the S-400 in October 2018, one unit of which has been deployed in December 2021 and deliveries of the second unit began in April 2022. Media reports have cited the possibility of sanctions waiver – allowed as per the legislation, and also the possibility of such legislations like the CRUCIAL Act – introduced by Republican Senators last year, which allows for non-imposition of sanctions for a ten-year period, if the President certifies to the Congress that India is continuing to play a critical role on security matters in the Indo-Pacific, as part of the Quad. The presentation closed by noting that under the shadow of sanctions, US-Russia bilateral trade has continued to be significant, amounting to nearly $37 billion in 2021, with nearly half of it due to US imports of Russian mineral fuels. US exports of Advanced Technology Products (ATP) to Russia, though, have reduced by nearly two-thirds in 2021, from 2014 levels. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy complimented the speaker for the presentation and pointed out that we have to navigate the evolving situation with extreme caution in the near-to-mid-term, minimising the negative implications flowing out of the punitive measures that the speaker highlighted. Discussion centered on the possibility of escrow accounts, delayed payments, rupee-rouble trade mechanisms, amongst others. Questions also related to long-term implications on the Russian defence industrial base, the nature of the Russian military effort in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the need to further study individual country perspectives and responses and nature of Russian transfer of technology of defence items. The Chair, Col. Manish Rana, closed the session by noting that India will have to further strengthen elements of Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence, to overcome the challenges. This report has been prepared by Mr. Mukesh Kumar, Intern, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Defence Economics & Industry | Defence Industry, Russia | |||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Europe: An Analysis” | May 09, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Europe: An Analysis” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 9 May 2022. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. Executive SummaryOn his first visit abroad after the COVIC Pandemic, Prime Minister Modi decided to travel to Europe. The trip included visits to Germany, Denmark and France at a time when a significant shift is underway in the European security paradigm. The Prime Minister’s visit can also be seen as India reciprocating recent visits from European leaders to India. The Prime Minister's visits ensured that many important agreements were signed and future cooperation was discussed. Detailed ReportThe Monday morning meeting began with Dr. Swasti Rao giving a background description of the Prime Minister's visit to Europe which included Germany, Denmark and France. She stressed on the importance of the visit which concluded with a wide array of agreements in emerging areas of green energy cooperation. The success of the various visits were underscored with the signing of a number of agreements in important fields. She lay emphasis on the timing of the visit wherein Europe is undergoing a paradigm shift in its security architecture. She concluded her remarks by highlighting the European stance towards India which is now seen through a positive lens. Europe which was until recently criticising India for its neutral position towards the Russia- Ukraine war, now sees India as an important friend and an important global player. Ms Anandita Bhada, the Speaker, at the outset, focused on the timing of the visit, particularly with the crisis in Ukraine and the recent visits from various European leaders and delegations. The main focus of the visit was the sixth India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations. The major themes discussed included a green and sustainable future, growth and resilience and an open and peaceful Indo-Pacific. A total of nine agreements were signed between the two countries which include Indo- German Partnership on Green and Sustainable Development and Development Cooperation on Renewable Energy Partnership. The next visit was to Denmark, with which India’s bilateral trade has increased from 2.8 billion dollars in 2016 to 5 billion dollars in 2021. Around 200 Danish firms investing in India in various areas like shipping, renewable energy and agriculture and the setup of manufacturing facilities under the ‘Make in India’ initiative; have given a boost to the relationship. The main focus of the visit was on the three ‘T’s; trade, technology and talent. In the trade section, the Prime Minister addressed the India-Denmark Business Forum to attract more Danish investment. On technology, the focus was on ‘green technology’ which focused on the agreement of the Joint Science and Technology Committee, reached in January 2022. This agreement's main focus is on joint research on green fuels, especially hydrogen. On talent, the main focus was on the exchange of talent between the Indian Diaspora in Denmark and Danish companies in India. Denmark also assured India of its support for its bid for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent membership. India reciprocated with its assurance and support to Denmark in its quest for a non-permanent seat in the UNSC. There were nine agreements signed with Denmark which included the Launch of Energy Policy Dialogue at the Ministerial level and the Letter of Intent on Centre of Excellence in Green Shipping. Another important part of the Denmark visit was the 2nd India- Nordic Summit. The Nordic countries only share this format with the United States apart from India. The main focus of this summit was cooperation in the field of climate change, innovation, digitalisation and green growth. The Prime Minister invited the Nordic countries to invest in the blue economy and digitalisation in India. There were also individual meetings with the various heads of states with a focus on certain issues blue economy, arctic, and information technology. The final leg of the Prime Minister’s Europe visit was to France. The re-election of Emmanuel Macron meant a return of a continued French foreign policy including the French engagement in the Indo-Pacific. France also holds the Presidency of the European Council; therefore, Macron’s return re-enforces prior plans concerning the steering of the European Union as well. France is also an important defence ally for India with which it conducts joint defence exercises. The alliance also focuses on Indian diversification, co-designing and co-production of defence equipment. The main theme of this meeting was the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, clean energy and sustainable development. The two nations have been Strategic Partners since 1998 and with regard to the Indo-Pacific, they are both committed to a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific region. France is looking to work with India in third countries in the Western Indian Ocean. There were also discussions on various topics ranging from space, trade, defence, green energy, cyber security and food security. In the conclusion, the Speaker stated the need for sustained enthusiasm in Europe’s engagement with India and vice versa. India’s defence cooperation with Europe needs to go beyond the buyer-seller relationship and aim for transfer of technology. India also needs to convey to its western partners that India’s relations with Russia are based on its national interest. The speaker ended her presentation by stating that India-Europe relations have a long way to go. Questions and CommentsAmbassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA stated that the United Nations Security Council's recent statements which have avoided mention of words like ‘conflict’ and ‘invasion’ show that India’s neutral stance on the same since the beginning is finding more legitimacy at the international level. The statement is reminiscent of India's consistent stand concerning the conflict. UN’s position also sits well with the Europeans and has eased some of the pressures between India- Europe relations. He also stated that the Europeans are reaching out to India in their individual capacity as well and not limiting their outreach within the EU framework only. The second question was on the Indo-Pacific and the Western Indian Ocean region. The French and European Union views are not aligned with the views of the United States and United Kingdom as is apparent from the AUKUS deal. The Speaker was asked about the evolving engagement of leading European nations towards a combined enhanced strategic engagement in the Indian Ocean Region. Ms. Anandita Bhada, the Speaker, gave detailed and insightful replies in response to comments and questions received from the participants. The Report was prepared by Mr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA. |
Europe and Eurasia | Europe | |||
Talk by H.E. Sidikov Furkat Ahmedovich on "30 Years of India-Uzbekistan Ties: Multifaceted Cooperation based on Shared Past and Bright Future” | May 10, 2022 | 1530-1630 hrs | Talk |
Talk by H.E. Sidikov Furkat Ahmedovich, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan Topic: 30 Years of India-Uzbekistan Ties: Multifaceted Cooperation based on Shared Past and Bright Future Welcome and Opening Address By Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy |
Eurasia & West Asia | ||||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on Withdrawal of French Troops from Mali: Implications and Challenges | May 02, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Event ReportMs. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Withdrawal of French Troops from Mali: Implications and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting which was held on 02 May 2022 at 10 AM in the Auditorium. The session was moderated by Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Centre Coordinator, Africa, Latin America, Caribbean, and United Nations (ALACUN) Centre, MP-IDSA. The Director-General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy and all scholars of MP-IDSA were in attendance. Executive SummaryIn February 2022, France and its allies announced a coordinated withdrawal of their forces from Mali due to multiple obstructions by the military-led government. The talk shed light on the various dimensions, implications, and challenges of this move. The speaker highlighted the political, economic, and security developments in Mali, while also outlining the role of international actors in the region and underscoring the origins of French involvement in Mali, and discussing the ramifications of its withdrawal. The implications of the withdrawal on the G-5 Sahel countries, particularly as it pertained to security, were also underscored. India’s cooperation with France in Africa was discussed, along with France’s internal political and economic motivations behind the withdrawal. Detailed ReportMs. Ruchita Beri opened the session by underlining the growing unpopularity of the French presence in Francophone countries. With this observation, she invited Ms. Dinesh to make her presentation. Ms. Dinesh’s talk covered the implications and challenges of the withdrawal of French troops from Mali and its impact on the neighboring countries. She began her presentation by highlighting the political, economic, and security developments in Mali, including the coups, terrorist activities, prevailing poverty, and communal violence. She drew the audience’s attention to the fact that a rise in insurgent activity in northern Mali and the government’s inability to quell it led to a coup in 2012. Fearing an entrenchment of such activities in the central and southern regions, the interim government of Mali requested France’s aid in counter-terrorism, leading to Operation Serval and France’s arrival in the country in 2013. In 2020, another coup was led by Colonel Assimi Goïta against the government and in May 2021—in what the speaker said is referred to as ‘a coup within a coup’—Col. Goïta seized power and President Ndaw and Prime Minister Ouane were detained. This was the immediate political context of France’s decision to reduce its troops and later withdraw. Ms. Dinesh gave an economic overview, outlining Mali’s poverty and dependence on oil imports. She also noted that the growth of local terrorist outfits, communal violence between the herding and farming communities, drug trafficking, and other organised crimes have given rise to a complex security climate. She also provided a comprehensive overview of the activities of international bodies such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (UN MINUSMA), European Union Capacity Building Mission in Mali, and European Union Training Mission in Mali. Talking about the inception and triggers of Operation Serval, Ms. Dinesh called attention to France’s moral obligation to look after its formal colonies. She also mentioned the success of Operation Serval in pushing back rebels to the northern part, giving rise to Operation Barkhane focused on counter-terrorism operations in the region, which although has eliminated the top leadership of several terrorist outfits and neutralised insurgents, has had limited success as the security threats in Mali have only increased. Ms. Dinesh pointed out that, after the May 2021 coup France refused to work with an unconstitutional government and President Macron announced a reduction of troops deployed to Mali. In February of 2022, France and its allies (part of Takuba Task Force) announced a coordinated withdrawal of their forces due to ‘multiple obstructions’ by the military-led government. In addition to this, a delay in elections and deterioration of bilateral ties also motivated France’s withdrawal. The speaker also shed light on the entry of new actors such as a Russian paramilitary organisation, the Wagner Group, into Mali. According to the government, the purpose of the Wagner Group is to train the armed forces of Mali but this reasoning is met with skepticism by the West. Ms. Dinesh outlined the internal as well as the external implications of the withdrawal. According to her, the withdrawal has immediate security consequences in both of these realms. It will open Mali to a potential increase in terrorist activities and an escalation of its security crisis. However, with the exit of foreign presence, it remains to be seen whether the insurgent and jihadist groups would now engage in talks with the Malian authorities. It will also impact the operation of MINUSMA, which is heavily dependent on France’s air support, and is not mandated to deal with counter-terrorist operations. The withdrawal also accelerates the challenges to development and humanitarian efforts extended to the nation. In the external domain, France’s withdrawal, according to Ms. Dinesh, poses concerns about the rise of transnational terrorist attacks in the region and a very real threat to countries south of the Sahel which may witness a spillover of jihadist terrorism. At the same time, she also brings to the audience’s attention the fact that the troops have not withdrawn from the entire region but only Mali. Ms. Dinesh concluded by highlighting the possibility of the emergence of a security vacuum after France’s exit, along with Russian involvement in the region. She urged that the region is in need of a streamlined international effort, particularly a people and government-centric one, focused on the empowerment of the government apparatus and civil society. After the conclusion of Ms. Dinesh’s presentation, Ms. Beri opened the floor for questions and discussion. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy complimented the speaker for a comprehensive presentation and also commented that care must be taken while assessing strategic partnerships with former colonial powers. Ms. Beri agreed with Ambassador Chinoy’s comments. Questions were raised on the extent of the success of the Russian Wagner Group in Mali. Underlining that Russia is Africa’s biggest arms supplier at the moment, Ms. Beri added that it is only natural that Russia would want to increase its presence in Mali. It remains to be seen as to how successful it is in dealing with the prevailing challenges. Some questions from the audience focused on France’s economic ambitions behind its involvement in Mali. France’s internal politics and economy were also discussed in this context. Questions were also asked about the reaction of neighboring countries to France’s withdrawal. In response, Ms. Dinesh outlined the rise of concerns in the region regarding the containment of terrorism, a potential increase in defense spending, and escalation of anxieties regarding migration. India’s cooperation with France, as well as Mali, was also discussed. The session was concluded by Ms. Beri with an acknowledgment of the fact that France is only withdrawing from Mali and still continues operations in other countries in the region, along with a comment on India-Mali relations and the future of Mali. This report has been prepared by Ms. Halima Z. Ansari, Intern, MP-IDSA. |
Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN | ||||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “Developments in Pakistan Since the Fall of the Imran Government” | April 25, 2022 | 1000 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Event ReportThe Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a talk on “Developments in Pakistan Since the Fall of the Imran Government” by Senior Fellow, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria at MP-IDSA on 25 April 2022, at 10AM in Seminar Hall I. Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir, Research Assistant at MP-IDSA was the moderator. The talk was attended by all scholars at MP-IDSA. Executive SummaryImran tried his best to retain power by all means and resorted to undemocratic means to deny his opponents any chance of coming to power. However, he could not stop the trust vote and had to leave office after losing the vote. Despite all this, he retains his popularity and might well come back to power in the next elections. The army might have stayed neutral in the current political scenario but is unlikely to quit on Imran Khan. Shehbaz Sharif may find it difficult to steer his government through the economic crisis and the political snares he is faced with given the political opportunism being displayed by his coalition partners. Whosoever comes to power in the next elections is not likely to reverse Pakistan’s policy on Kashmir and India, which is largely being dictated by the military establishment in Pakistan. Detailed ReportThe talk by Dr. Behuria drew attention to Imran’s rallies after he lost the trust vote in the National Assembly and said that the large crowds that he had managed to attract in Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore indicated that Imran Khan continued to be popular among the people of Pakistan. During the rallies, he said that the Judiciary, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the powers-that-be (the deep state) had a role in his ouster. He stuck to his allegation of foreign conspiracy (meaning the US) resulting in the defections from his coalition and tabling of the no trust motion against him leading to the fall of his government and demanded early elections to get rid of the ‘imported’ government of Shehbaz Sharif. Dr. Behuria pointed out that the recent National Security Committee meeting as well as the previous one disagreed with Imran’s allegations and held that there was no conspiracy afoot to oust Imran. He said that Imran Khan might have been outvoted in the national assembly but it is too early to count him out of the Pakistani political calculus, which was also acknowledged by the army chief in his closed door address to the army veterans a few days after the new government was sworn in. Asked about the prospects of the Shehbaz Sharif Government, Dr. Behuria held that he was heading a messy coalition where the constituent parties were pulling in different directions and it would be difficult to hold them together for long. He also said that the new government had assumed office at a very difficult time when the country was facing an economic crisis and in order to avail of the loan from IMF, Shehbaz would have to take unpopular decisions which would turn the people against him and indirectly boost Imran’s electoral prospects further. He was of the opinion that if the elections were to be delayed till 2023, when the term of the present National Assembly would end, the anti-incumbency factor might kick in to the benefit of Imran and the latter could even get majority. Therefore, the army would, in all probability, play it safe and wait it out rather than betting on any one of the parties at the moment. He indicated nonetheless that sections within the army might be backing Imran even today while the top echelons might be playing neutral, because Imran, the maverick that he is, had apparently gone against their wishes and visited Russia at an inappropriate time and had unnecessarily jeopardised Pakistan’s relations with the US. Talking about the impact on India, Dr. Behuria said that the ground reality would suggest that the new government as well as the government that would follow it after the elections might not be able to change the direction of Pakistan’s policy towards India, which was being decided by the military of Pakistan. He also indicated that there was an overemphasis on resolution of Kashmir issue through United Nations resolutions and the Pakistani establishment knew fully well that it was a red herring for India. Therefore, there was no possibility of any fruitful engagement between the two countries beyond exchange of courtesy messages indicating mutual desire for peace and normalisation. During the talk, Dr. Behuria also drew attention to the Information Warfare being waged by Pakistan and held that the Indian response has not been that effective in neutralising the spurious narratives on Kashmir and Indian democracy being spread by Pakistan. The Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, expanded on this point and said that Pakistan was likely to resort to international propaganda in the days to come. Dwelling on the implications of all this on Kashmir, Dr. Behuria said that Pakistan had been trying to divert the attention of some of the constituents of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) towards Kashmir, but given the pressures on Pakistan on account of the Financial Action Task Force, it might find it difficult to launch them as a separate terrorist group especially when TTP-splinter groups might not agree to operate under other Kashmir-focused jihadi groups sponsored by Pakistan. In the Q&A session, Dr. Behuria, responding to queries, indicated that the Pakistani narrative on Kashmir had been more popular than the Indian narrative and there was a need for India to expose Pakistan’s terror strategy and its disinclination for constructive dialogue with India. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, who had returned from a weeklong stay in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir said that situation in Kashmir was not in favor of Pakistan. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA said that Information Warfare is something where a lot of attention has to be paid by everyone which includes different branches of the government. The Report has been prepared by Mr. Jay Desai, Intern, MP-IDSA. |
South Asia | ||||
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “India-US 2+2 Dialogue: Bolstering the Strategic Partnership” | April 18, 2022 | 1030 hrs | Monday Morning Meeting |
Dr. Priyanka Singh, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, spoke on “India-US 2+2 Dialogue: Bolstering the Strategic Partnership” at the Monday Morning Meeting which was held on 18 April 2022 at 1000hrs in the Seminar Hall I. Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA chaired the session with Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director-General, Manohar Parrikar IDSA and scholars of the institute being in attendance. Executive SummaryThe India-US 2+2 Dialogue in the broader context of the India-US relationship was analysed at the meeting. The trajectory of the India-US 2+2 Dialogue since September 2018 was analysed briefly. The India-US bilateral relationship from Cold-War ideological divisions and divergent priorities to mutually beneficial strategic ties, including in the realm of defence domain was traced. It was concluded that given India’s balanced position in international affairs, the country could get the best out of the US by optimising convergences and minimising differences. India could do this by further extending its reach in the South Asian region and shielding its strategic autonomy. Detailed ReportCmde. Abhay Kumar Singh opened the session by posing a question regarding the convergences and divergences in the India-US relationship. According to him, India’s position on the Ukraine crisis was a major divergence in the discussion. However, the candid discussion between India and the US, followed by one of the longest joint statements, indicated the robustness of the relationship. With this observation, the Chair invited Dr. Priyanka Singh to make her presentation. Dr. Singh put the India-US 2+2 Dialogue in perspective by giving a brief background of India’s 2+2 engagements with the countries concerned, including the US. She drew the audience's attention to the fact that India had 2+2 arrangements with all the Quad members and Russia. The speaker presented a brief trajectory of the India-US 2+2 Dialogue since September 2018, when the first such meeting took place. She touched upon the issue of India signing the US defence foundational pacts and India-US cooperation under the Indo-Pacific framework. Dr. Singh called the 2+2 dialogue a platform that nurtures bilateral cohesion and provides an opportunity to amalgamate the issues concerning the two sides in the realm of defence, security, and intelligence sharing. According to her, the 2+2 platform provides a personalised interface for strengthening the bilateral relationship by moving forward on specific issues of mutual interests while weeding out the differences. Commenting on the 2+2 Dialogue that was held on 11 April 2022 in Washington DC in the presence of Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense, Lloyd J. Austin III from the US side and Minister of External Affairs (EAM), S. Jaishankar and Raksha Mantri, Rajnath Singh from the Indian side, the speaker referred to the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, India, which had positioned the dialogue as a forum to further consolidate the bilateral relationship between India and the US. The speaker also highlighted Raksha Mantri, Rajnath Singh’s visit to the Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) based in Hawaii. Further, Dr. Singh presented key developments that had taken place in the run-up to the 2+2 Dialogue. She mentioned the meeting between Foreign Secretary of India, Harsh Vardhan Shringla and the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland as a part of a diplomatic exercise undertaken by the US with the countries that had taken a neutral stance at the United Nations (UN) vis-à-vis the Ukraine crisis. The speaker also referred to the controversial statement by the US Deputy National Security Advisor, Daleep Singh during his India visit where he had warned countries trying to circumvent American sanctions against Russia. Further, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, had referred to the 2+2 Dialogue as a health check of the India-US strategic partnership. Moreover, President Biden had termed India as a ‘shaky ally’ amongst the Quad countries. Thus, there were a series of critical statements regarding India from the US’ top political echelon before the 2+2 Dialogue. Apart from the statements, the 2+2 Dialogue was preceded by important geopolitical events in the region such as the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, India’s cautious position on the Ukraine crisis, and the rupture in the US-Pakistan relationship. Thus, the 2+2 Dialogue was an attempt to find a way to accommodate the varying priorities of India and the US that would resurrect confidence in the bilateral relationship. Emphasising the importance of the Dialogue, Dr. Singh observed that the 2+2 Dialogue was prefaced by a virtual meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Biden, which showed the strategic importance accorded by both sides to the Dialogue. The joint statement released after the 2+2 Dialogue prominently mentioned Global Partnership and Indo-Pacific Cooperation; Mutual Prosperity, Innovation, and Resilient Supply Chains; Climate, Environment, and Clean Energy; Science, Technology, Cybersecurity, and Space; Global Health; Defence and Security; Counterterrorism and Counter Narcotics; and Education and People-to-People Ties. Civilian deaths in Ukraine were condemned, and the cessation of hostilities was stressed on by both sides. The joint statement and presser after suggested that the US understood India’s position on issues of mutual interest. Additionally, there were efforts to augment bilateral investments, signing of a bilateral space situational awareness arrangement, expansion of ties in the cyber and space domain, promotion and review of working groups of the Quad, and a waiver from Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions for the time being. The joint statement also called on Pakistan to stop supporting terrorism from its soil. The statement welcomed the convening of the 18th meeting of the India-US joint working group on counter-terrorism and the fourth Session of the India-U.S. Designations Dialogue in October 2021. Thus, the net result of the Dialogue was that things were back on track and the US and India decided to agree to disagree on the Ukraine crisis. The key focus of the discussion was the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Singh argued that India-US relations have moved from Cold-War ideological divisions and divergent priorities to mutually beneficial strategic ties, including in the defence domain. History and circumstances have shaped India-US relations. India-US defence cooperation dates back to 1951, when the first military agreement was signed between the two countries. Both countries participated in the joint military exercise ‘Shiksha’ way back in 1962. However, issues such as the Cold-War and the US’ stand on Kashmir did not let the relationship evolve. The root of the present synergy between the two sides goes back to 1991, before which the relationship was moving forward in an extremely cautious way under a conservative framework. In conclusion, the speaker pondered about whether the India-US relationship has already plateaued, even though the China factor might act as an adhesive? She maintained that given India’s balanced position in international affairs, the country could get the best out of the US by optimising convergences and minimising differences. India could do this by further extending its reach in the South Asian region and by shielding its strategic autonomy. Participating in the discussion, Deputy Director-General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi complimented the speaker and asserted that India is navigating in an extremely complicated international scenario. India’s defence agreements with the US came about in a space where it helped India posture against China with a dormant Russia. Now Russia has suddenly re-emerged on the international canvas, which has made the situation extremely volatile. The Quad has no security implications as of now. India is the only intersection point in the BRICS, the RIC and the Quad. Thus, the country has to straddle both sides, balancing the competing priorities. A lot of things in the realm of India-US defence cooperation may not be in the public domain. In the security arena, the two countries have an anti-terrorism assistance programme. In the domain of technology transfer, things are moving forward positively, with Boeing announcing that Chinook chassis will be made in India. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi observed that US-Pakistan relations are likely to improve. He drew attention to the fact that Pakistan had accused Afghanistan of promoting terrorism against the former. Pakistan Air Force aircraft had gone across the border to bomb the Khost province of Afghanistan. He raised the possibility of the US-Russia-India relationship turning into a zero-sum game and raised the question that if India moves closer to the US, does India have to go away from Russia? Or can India manage both relations? Responding to the ensuing questions, Dr. Singh claimed that India does not have an option to be with either Russia or the US. India has to deal with both simultaneously. Both the US and Russia are important for India in its quest to deal with China. If one leaves Russia, it will move closer to China. Thus, the challenge before India is to strike a balance between Russia and a strategic partnership with the US. India’s stand on Ukraine is a testament of India’s balancing act. It will take time for the US to replace Russia in India’s strategic calculus, and even the US understands it. India seems to be listening to the US but not reacting so much. The priority for the regional actors is China and the Indo-Pacific. According to Dr. Singh, there is no threat to India on account of US-Pakistan relations. Participating in the discussion, Cmde. Singh said that the US is constantly pushing back against Chinese assertiveness through regional, sub-regional and bilateral levels, although there exists a perception that the US was not doing enough. Moreover, Cmde. Singh contended that the Quad had an overt military security hand. But the Quad members purposely made efforts not to make the Quad look like an Asian NATO. However, the military-security domain remains the backbone of the Quad. Moreover, the Quad countries have enhanced security relations amongst one another in a bilateral and trilateral format. Cmde. Singh stated that Russia’s reputation had taken a hit due to the Ukraine crisis, while the perception of US decline had existed for the past 20 years. With this thought-provoking discussion, the Monday Morning Meeting came to an end. The report was prepared by Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA. |