Events

Professor Aki Sakabe-Mori will deliver a talk on China-Japan Relations and Security Issues of Regional Concern Today on July 25, 2023, at 1500 hrs in Board Room no. 104.

DG, MP-IDSA, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy will chair the interactive session.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “India’s Turn to Minilateralism in the West Asia Context” during the Monday Morning Meeting on 10 July 2023. The session, moderated by Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre, was attended by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, and scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

India’s focus is growing on minilateralism in the West Asian region. The region’s geopolitical landscape is transitioning to a multipolar structure, coinciding with concerns over the perceived US disengagement and the diversification of partnerships among US allies. The Abraham Accords have reshaped Israel-Arab Gulf dynamics, while efforts towards wider de-escalation are promoting scope for minilaterals. The US has recalibrated its role from traditional bilateral alliances to an integration-based regional approach. India’s turn to minilateralism is exemplified by the India-Israel-UAE-US (I2U2) initiative, which facilitates joint investments and practical cooperation in various sectors. A few other minilateral initiatives, such as the India-UAE Strategic Partnership and the India-Israel-US Strategic Partnership, emphasise shared interests in energy, food security, trade, and investment. These partnerships and initiatives aim to foster stability, prosperity, and connectivity in West Asia while advancing India’s independent strategic vision.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. P.K. Pradhan briefly outlined the idea behind India’s focus on minilateral groupings in West Asia. He specifically mentioned the India, Israel, UAE and USA (I2U2) Grouping, which was conceptualised in 2021. In 2022, the first Leaders’ Summit took place and six key areas, namely water, energy, transportation, space, health and food security, were identified to encourage joint investments. The significance of this grouping is also highlighted through the meeting held in May 2023, where National Security Advisors (NSAs) of India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates met in Riyadh. With this brief  introduction, Dr. Pradhan requested Dr. Saraswat to begin her presentation.

Dr. Saraswat commenced her presentation by discussing the geopolitical context of West Asia, highlighting the transition towards a multipolar landscape. She emphasised the concerns expressed by US allies in the region regarding the perceived US disengagement, leading to a diversification of partnerships and the exploration of regional alternatives. Abraham Accords and de-escalation created space for minilateral and regional frameworks. US National Security Strategy 2022 highlights the recalibration of the US role as the external security guarantor, emphasising integration-based approaches. US interest is being seen in synergising the Middle East and Indo-Pacific Strategy through building economic, political and security connections between and among US partners. Moreover, the transformation of India’s key bilateral relationships with the UAE and Israel from transactional to ‘strategic partnerships’ enabled India to engage in minilateral formats.

The speaker drew attention to India’s growing focus on minilateralism in its engagement with West Asia, highlighting the India-Israel-UAE-US (I2U2) initiative. The I2U2 Summit held in July 2022 laid the foundation for practical cooperation, with joint investments and initiatives in six sectors. The initiative capitalises on the participating countries’ relative strengths and trade synergies, leveraging factors like capital, technological prowess, and market size.

During her presentation, Dr. Saraswat provided specific examples of collaboration within the I2U2 framework. The nexus between technology, energy, and climate change has resulted in substantial investments from the UAE in integrated food parks across India and hybrid renewable energy projects in Gujarat. The importance of trans-regional connectivity, particularly through the India-Arab-Mediterranean Connectivity Corridor, was also emphasised. The inaugural I2U2 Business Forum held in February 2023 aimed to mobilise private sector capital and expertise for joint projects in renewable energy. India has joined the US-UAE-led Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM4C). In addition, establishing the I2U2 Joint Business Coalition in April 2023 enhanced technological and private-sector collaboration.

Dr. Saraswat discussed additional minilateral initiatives in which India has been involved in the West Asia. These included the India-Saudi Arabia-US-UAE NSAs meeting, which also discussed the establishment of an integrated railway network among Gulf and Arab countries, with India linked through maritime routes. However, progress on the India-Saudi bilateral front since the creation of the Strategic Partnership Council in 2019 has been slow. Other limiting factors in minilateral engagement include Saudi Arabia’s efforts to balance its relations with India, Pakistan, and China, strained Saudi-US ties, and Riyadh’s reluctance to fully normalise relations with Israel and Saudi-UAE economic competition. Egypt was highlighted as a country where India’s stabilising role alongside its Gulf partners has been crucial during the economic crisis, positioning Egypt as a gateway to markets in Europe, West Asia, and Africa. It is also an important destination for agriculture and defence exports.

The speaker emphasised the significance of the strategic partnership between India and the UAE since January 2017. The partnership is built on shared views regarding the challenges of religious extremism, terrorism, and economic openness. Various areas of cooperation were highlighted, including joint working groups for exploring outer space, collaboration on strategic petroleum reserves, the India-UAE food corridor, and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The CEPA has eliminated or reduced tariffs on 80% of product lines, facilitating investment in priority sectors and ensuring secure supply chains. UAE investment in renewable energy, food parks and logistics is helping to overcome development challenges through trade.

While contextualising Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach of ‘peace through strength’, Dr. Saraswat discussed India’s de-hyphenation of its Israel-Palestine policy and Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Israel in 2017 as crucial for the emergence of a technological and development partnership between India and Israel. She noted that as negotiations are underway for the India-Israel Free Trade Agreement, the two sides are leveraging the complementarities of Israel’s technological prowess and India’s market size.

Dr. Saraswat concluded by mentioning that India’s growing focus on minilateral engagements and strategic partnerships reflects a transformation in New Delhi’s approach towards West Asia. The geopolitical shifts and the US recalibration in West Asia have created some convergences between the US and India as both share a vision of an ‘interconnected’ cooperative region. However, India will continue to have its independent strategic vision towards the region.  In the present scenario, India is unlikely to engage in ‘hard’ security issues beyond the freedom of navigation in the region’s waterways.

Comments and Questions

Dr. Pradhan opened the floor for comments and questions. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, argued that minilaterals are as good as the sum of their parts. Minilateral groupings demonstrate the resilience of bilateral relations, showcasing their ability to deliver outcomes that larger groups cannot. These smaller collaborations harness the collective strengths of their members, surpassing the limitations of broader multilateral efforts. However, he cautioned that minilaterals, which are flexible in nature, should not be confused with permanent commitments.

The Director General also noted that the I2U2 has been erroneously labelled as the “second QUAD” in media circles. Minilaterals offer flexibility, as evidenced by the NSAs meeting in Saudi Arabia, where UAE, USA, and India participated. However, Israel did not attend due to its current relationship dynamics with Saudi Arabia.

Ambassador Chinoy highlighted the aspect that the US profile in the region should be considered with the leverage Gulf nations possessed earlier due to their significant supply of oil, gas, and other fossil fuels to the US market. The US, now having transitioned to a net energy exporter, is recalibrating its approach. The US is exploring virtual range or over-the-horizon capabilities to be deployed as needed in the Gulf region.  Moreover, Gulf and Arab nations have gained leverage with Europe. As India absorbs Russian oil, these nations are in a better position to meet the supply demands in Europe.

The Director General mentioned that China is often considered a very good alternative destination, market, and arms supplier, as well as a major consumer of oil and gas. However, India is also being viewed as a significant emerging market with great potential. Consequently, countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to increase their investments in India, recognising its growth prospects and economic opportunities.

Dr. Adil Rasheed mentioned Indian PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Egypt in June 2023 and emphasised the need to boost bilateral relations. He asked about the possibility of India’s minilateral arrangement with Egypt.

Dr. S Samuel C. Rajiv noted that the de-escalation phase did not mean the disappearance of the faultlines in the West Asian region and asked about India’s posture towards Iran.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan highlighted the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China in West Asia and asked about the possibility and implications of the US withdrawal from the region.

Gp. Capt. ( Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang (Retd.) asked questions on India’s partnership with UAE on petroleum reserves, India-Israel research and development partnership and progress in agriculture cooperation.

Capt. Anurag Bisen (IN) mentioned the absence of ‘security’ in the six agendas of I2U2 and asked about the possibility of including maritime security in the agendas.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat gave comprehensive responses, addressing the comments and questions from the Institute’s scholars.

The report has been prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.

Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Indo-US Defence Industrial Cooperation and Aatmanirbharta” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 17 July 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The recent India-US defence industrial cooperation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden held from 21-24 June 2023 depicted the significance of technology in strengthening bilateral relationships with strategic partner countries. The speaker advocated the need to understand the complexities, implementing agreements and challenges in reciprocal agreements. He highlighted the need for protecting Indian intellectual capital, analysing impact of procurements on indigenous programs and civil-military fusion in aeronautics technologies, He concluded by emphasising the need for creating India’s defence technology innovation roadmap,instituting structural, policy and procedural reforms for enhancing contribution of Indian defence forces, pursuing joint development, joint IP creation and procurement; and instituting measures for inter-ministerial coordination to make R&D and innovation collaborations with international partners successful and pave the way for self-reliance (Aatmanirbharta) in defence technologies.

Detailed Report

Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv gave a brief introduction to the subject before describing how defence industrial cooperation between India and the United States has recently benefited from the jointly agreed upon defence industrial roadmap in June 2023. He briefly mentioned the previous defence framework agreements between the two countries that provided the structure to facilitate this cooperation further.

Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Narang cited the importance of technology in strengthening the relationship between partner countries. He drew attention to the latest India-US defence industrial cooperation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden held from 21-24 June 2023. Although the initiatives adopted during this meeting have the potential to enhance collaboration between the two states through technology-driven approaches, yet there is the need to comprehend the details of the agreement and complexities to effectively implement them rather than relying on expectations. He discussed the key initiatives and agreements signed and attempted to relate them to innovations, technology collaborations and the impact of such initiatives on achieving aatmanirbharta in the defence sector of the country. Finally, he made certain observations and gave certain recommendations.

India and the US have been close strategic partners since the signing of the 2005 framework agreement on defence relations, which was renewed in 2015. Along with the above, various other defence agreements were signed between the two countries to promote technology-sharing, co-development and co-production, such as the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) in 2012, and Strategic Trade Authorisation Tier-1 (STA-1) in 2016. The annual 2+2 ministerial dialogue was initiated in 2018. Since the initiation of the US-India Defence Dialogue in 2008, there has been significant growth amounting to USD 20 billion in the year 2020 from collaborations such as the C-17, C-130, Apache, Chinook, P-8i, and M-777. There were many other dialogue mechanisms like the Defence Policy Group (DPG), Defence Joint Working Group (DJWG), Joint Technical Group (JTF), Military Cooperation Group (MCG), and the Executive Steering Group (EG). However, there are still challenges to be addressed, such as the lack of reciprocal agreements between the Indian defence forces and US startups.

The speaker then spoke about several critical agreements relating to information exchange, aircraft technologies, fuel exchange and foundational agreements signed between India and US. These were the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in 2002, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018 and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020. He argues that there has been significant progress in India-US defence industrial cooperation in recent years, but that there is still more work to be done.

Before the beginning of Prime Minister Modi’s to the US, the Indian Defence Secretary Giridhar Armane and the US Under Secretary of Defence and Policy Dr. Colin Kohl co-chaired the Indo-US Defence Policy Group in Washington on 17 May 2023. They deliberated on enhancing defence industrial cooperation, partnerships, identifying opportunities for co-development of new technologies and production of existing and new systems, and R&D. This was followed by the visit of US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s visit to conclude the Roadmap for India-US Defence Industrial Cooperation on 4-5 June 2023. On 13-14 June 2023, US NSA Jake Sullivan also paid a visit to India to review the progress on the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and signed MOU on semiconductors. Discussions also centred around areas of space, AI and security of supply agreement and regulation of critical design in defence technologies, and placement of a liaison officer in each other’s military organisations. Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Narang emphasised the significance of Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreements and streamlining of regulatory mechanisms to promote the export of defence technologies from US start-ups for the Indian defence industry and vice-versa. The most important agreement signed during Prime Minister Modi’s US visit, was the India-US Defence Accelerator Ecosystem (INDUS-X) – Defence Innovation Collaboration between the US Defence Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Indian DIO-iDEX. It is intended to complement government-to-government collaborations between Indian companies, investors, startup accelerators and academic research institutions to co-develop and co-produce advanced technology by Indian and US start-ups. This was followed by the acquisition and manufacturing deal of the GE-414 Aero-engine, and the 31 MQ-9B Sea Guardian/ Sky Guardian UAS Acquisition Deal. Additionally, the US Department of Defense (DoD) Space Force had signed an R&D Agreement with the 114-Ai and 3rdiTech, however, there have been no reciprocal agreements by Indian defence forces or the Ministry of Defence (MoD) with US-based startups.

In the context of the signing of the MoU for Joint production of 99 GE 414 for LCA Mk-2 and AMCA Mk-1 between HAL-GE on 22 June 2023, Gp. Capt. (Dr) Narang elaborated on the increase in the ToT from the earlier 58 per cent to 80 per cent for the GE414 engine, pending US congressional approval for the export administration regulation (EAR) and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). He also expounded on six other such aero-engine joint development initiatives with other companies in the US, France, the UK, Russia and China. In the case of France, it is working with India for the development of an engine for the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) and the Intermediate Medium Range Helicopter (IMRH). Furthermore, the Master-Ship Repair Agreement (MSRA) and the iCET were two other major agreements signed to further work in the areas of science and technology such as AI, quantum, space and telecom, among others.

The speaker then offered some observations. He pointed out that although India has a sizable defence budget, much of it is spent on foreign military hardware, so the country needs to concentrate on developing its defence technology, particularly in the areas of civil-military fusion and dual-use technologies to achieve civil-military integration in areas like aviation technologies. The INDUS-X defence partnership with the US has the potential to be a major boost for India’s defence industry, but it is important to ensure that India benefits from the partnership in a meaningful way. Several challenges need to be addressed to make the INDUS-X partnership a success, including IP sharing, ownership rights, co-production between Indian and US partners, and the prevention of the migration of Indian intellectual capital. Additionally, the Indian defence forces need to be prepared to take on a more active role in the development and procurement of defence technology. Gp. Capt. Narang maintained that it is also crucial for the government to proactively work towards an inter-ministerial approach to create a more equitable space for co-development and co-production defence projects through collaborative research, identify technological gaps, formulate proper problem statements, and funding, to gainfully leverage joint deference technology and innovation collaborations for capability development and pave the path towards Aatmanirbharta in the defence sector. India’s defence ecosystem is currently fragmented, with different ministries and agencies working in silos. This makes it difficult to coordinate and implement defence technology projects effectively.

The speaker concluded by stating that it is also essential to examine how procurement of foreign equipment impacts indigenous programs as India has a history of importing foreign military equipment, which sometimes leads to the neglect of indigenous programs. The government needs to ensure that procurement of foreign equipment does not come at the expense of indigenous development. Hence a comprehensive innovation roadmap, inter-ministerial coordination, and ownership for technology development are crucial for gaining ground towards Aatmanirbharta in India’s defence manufacturing and technology development roadmap.

Questions and Comments

Dr. Rajiv thanked the speaker for his detailed presentation and opened the floor for questions and comments. During the discussion which followed, the Director General Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy enquired about the purpose and associated cost benefit analysis of fitting an afterburner version of Kaveri aero-engine onto the LCA Mark 1 prototype for technology validation. He also enquired whether working on proven designs such the GE-F404 and GE-414 would be better approach. He added that India needs to collaborate with the US owing to the highly regulated defence industrial ecosystem of the latter. He stressed India’s ability to absorb and develop advanced technologies, both in the public and private sectors and the need to develop a more robust ecosystem for technology development and acquisition.

Mr. Arvind Khare enquired whether problem statements have been identified for the INDUS-X initiative from both sides and who will be the nodal agency from the Indian side. He also wanted some clarity on whether the INDUS-X initiative will fall within the same pattern as the bilateral innovation agreement between the DRDO and the Directorate of Defence R&D of Israel.

Dr. Abhishek Mishra enquired about the ToT percentage of the GE-414 jet engine cores and the requirement of the MQ-9B for the Indian Navy. Dr. Rajiv Nayan commented upon the importance of engine development for various applications, including unmanned systems and shipbuilding, and the need for India to become more self-reliant in this regard. He stressed increasing investment in R&D in the private sector to develop expertise in critical technologies.

Cmde. Abhay Singh commented on the lack of evidence-based research in defence and security due to the paucity of information in the public domain. Dr. Om Prakash asked the speaker about the advantages gained by the defence start-ups from the particular defence cooperation with the US. Dr. Anand Kumar commented on the recent order of around 1000 commercial aircraft which was placed by Indigo and Air India reflecting on the growth potential of the Indian aviation industry. Secondly, he enquired about why India might have a problem with replicating co-development models with the US as had been previously done with Russia while working on the BrahMos. Col. Rajneesh Singh remarked that China’s success in negotiating and establishing collaborative agreements with foreign companies is due to the availability of a conducive ecosystem for technological collaboration.

Overall, the discussion revolves around India’s technological capabilities, collaboration with other countries, and the need for a strategic approach to technology development and acquisition. Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Narang then responded to the comments and questions.

The report has been prepared by Ms. Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, Research Analyst, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA.

A MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar by Dr. Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, on "The Geopolitics of Europe's Quest for Energy Security: Significant Achievements amid Myriad Challenges” was held on 7 February 2023. It was chaired by Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva, Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The external discussants were Dr. Lydia Powell, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), and Mr. Rajeev Lala, Associate Director, S&P Global. Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst at MP-IDSA, was the internal discussant.

Executive Summary

Almost a year into the war in Ukraine, European nations have fast-tracked their energy diversification in order to reduce their dependency on Russia. The main issues are policies adopted by Europe to diversify, the available options, and prognosis for the future.

Detailed Report

The Chair, Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva, in his opening remarks, stated that diversification of energy supplies would likely have a major geopolitical implication. For example, Europe moving towards the US for oil and Russia diversifying its energy exports away from Europe, towards Asia would significantly impact the international arena.

Dr. Swasti Rao began her presentation with a question – “Does Europe want to diversify its energy requirements from Russia?” She replied in the affirmative but pointed out that the main issue is implementing this vision. The speaker then highlighted the structure of her paper before briefly delving into the ongoing developments in Russia-Ukraine war.

Dr. Rao stressed that Europe is seeking to completely wean itself away from Russian crude oil, natural gas and coal. She highlighted Europe’s dependency on Russian energy amidst the differentiation in patterns and volume of such trade. She elaborated on the internal and external differences in Europe regarding the diversification process. She pointed out Europe’s plans to focus on alternative fuels in the form of hydrogen and nuclear, apart from creating new energy maps and import corridors. The fact is that today Europe is looking into both short-term and long-term energy measures, anchored to avoiding any potential dependency. For Europe, the supply chains should not only be cost-effective but also more resilient. 

Dr. Rao highlighted the diversification measures undertaken by Europe. These include import diversification, short-term energy imports, protection of the most venerable cohorts, and acceleration to new renewables. 

The speaker elaborated on the macro and micro energy trends in Europe – both before and since the conflict started. At the macro level, there has been a systemic and sustainable shift away from Russian energy. At the micro-level, Europe has sought to cut down domestic demand apart from transition to renewables. These steps are, however, hampered by limitations that include pipeline disruption, oil re-routing, global liquefaction capacity, and failure to meet market goals.

Moving to the issue of transition to renewables such as green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and bio-methane, Dr. Rao highlighted the sense of urgency in the form of new European pathways to develop these alternatives. She also referred to Europe’s attempts at developing new import corridors. She emphasised that one of the reasons for Europe's ongoing support to Ukraine is anchored to Ukraine emerging as a promising option for green hydrogen.

On the issue of expanding avenues of energy cooperation between India and Europe, Dr. Rao referred to the Trade Technology Council and ongoing bilateral discussions in the field of hydrogen.

Dr. Rao concluded by stating that Europe appears to have shown a strong political will to diversify yet it would need strong political leadership in what would likely be a very painful period ahead.

Dr. Lydia Powell:

Dr. Powell, while complimenting the author for her presentation, felt that there is scope for enhancing the analytical rigour of the paper by moving beyond the summarizing and descriptive aspects. This includes a more rigorous analysis of the post-Ukraine energy situation in Europe and its future. She observed that the speaker could qualitatively improve the section on “geopolitics of Europe's quest for energy security”.

Dr. Powell gave a few more suggestions to improve the paper. First, she suggested revising the opening section, particularly the framing of whether the European Union (EU) can replace Russia in the context of energy. Second, one needs to dwell on who the winners and losers of the current geopolitical scenario are – this includes Russia, EU and the US. Also, whether Russia’s calculations are long-term vis-à-vis short term? Third, the speaker could address the question of whether the fossil fuel and nuclear industries are the winners in this climate. Fourth, the speaker should address whether Asia has become the winner given the renewed focus on the continent amidst Russia's growing energy exports to India and China. Similarly, has the developing world lost out in the short term on account of their energy crisis? Fifth, the paper must address its policy relevance, particularly for India.

Mr. Rajeev Lala:

Mr. Rajeev Lala highlighted the need to add a caveat around hydrogen – “hope”, especially on green hydrogen. Meanwhile, there exists two proponents around hydrogen; one is the blue hydrogen proponent (led by Saudi Arabia) and the other being the green hydrogen proponents (led by Japan, Korea, Switzerland, and South Korea). The key issue is financing, as both technologies are expensive; hence it is still most policymakers' hope.

There also exists a significant variation in European countries dependency on Russia. This has a direct bearing on each country’s national position on Russia with the most critical stand being taken by countries which have the least dependency. Mr. Lala suggested the need for a chart to show this correlation by providing the examples of energy dependencies of Germany and the United Kingdom on Russia.

The discussant called upon Dr. Rao to focus on the interconnectivity issue and the status of interconnectors across Europe. Meanwhile, a section could be added on the risks for 2023 and what could go wrong.

Mr. Lala elaborated on ongoing discussions on “winter approaching” and its potential impact on Ukraine, and stressed that winter has in fact already arrived in South Asia in the June-August period since all the gas markets are interconnected. He referred to its impact on Pakistan which is undergoing a prolonged energy crisis. In the same vein, Europe’s energy diversification could impact the Indian gas market, which the author should also focus on.

Ms. Anandita Bhada:

The discussant stressed on the need to highlight the winners and losers of the ongoing crisis. She referred to the eastern European countries, who being less economically developed, have found cheaper Russian energy more attractive. Ms. Bhada felt that the importance of interconnectors must be emphasized since several eastern European countries are landlocked or have a small coastline. In this, the significance of Poland-Lithuania interconnector should be emphasised. She also referred to the concept of projects of common interests which help secure energy across the continent. This includes the Baltic Gas Pipeline connecting Norway via Denmark to Poland.

Apart from raising the question of financing, Ms. Bhada highlighted the use of rare earth elements sourced from China for energy transition to renewables. She wondered whether a significant focus on renewables would mean Europe would have an increased dependence on China for rare-earth elements? Ms. Bhada also observed that the Brexit deal must be resolved for any substantial gains between Europe and the United Kingdom. Finally, regarding the reduction of demand, she pondered that by the time there is a reduction in the market for Russian energy sources, the need for the substitute would increase; thus, how would Europe balance it out? 

Prof. Gulshan Sachdeva:

The Chair complimented the author for her work. He also highlighted some of the areas of the paper which could be further improved.

First, the title could be formulated for a more precise understanding. Too many aspects within the title may create problems. There is also a need for more in-depth analysis of the geopolitical factors at play.

Second, there is a need to have a discussion on the concept of energy security and what is the European understanding of energy security. There is also need to discuss the history of the European understanding of energy security from the past to the current era.

Third, Prof Sachdeva opined that the Literature Review might not be needed but gave the researcher the discretion to keep or remove it.

Fourth, he highlighted the need to re-arrange the paper. In the introduction, the researcher could highlight the European concept of energy security, and then delve into the current geopolitical situation as a result of which Europe has chosen to adjust its energy security policies.

Fifth, concerning the figures, there is a need for primary data, and the use of multiple graphics is confusing for the readers. For example, a graph could be there for the situation before the Ukraine war and the current situation.

Sixth, there is a need to refer to more primary documents from the European Union; for instance, the Repower EU Plan needs to be added.

Seventh, Prof. Sachdeva observed that on India-EU collaboration, the researcher could avoid the over-emphasis on hydrogen since it may divert from the crux of the paper. In this, the paper needs to focus more on the impact of energy diversification on India. A country like India is significantly dependent on Russian arms and energy, and there could be severe implications for the geopolitics of the Eurasian region.

Eighth, the author must expand the conclusion.

Questions and Comments 

Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.)  agreed with the Chair on specific aspects of the paper which need to be reviewed. He observed that multilateralism is weakening, maybe to a certain extent even fracturing, which has led to multipolarity and emergence of regional groupings. In the past, regional groupings were linked to geography but several of those links are now fractured. In the same vein, he observed that geopolitics and ideology are fracturing existing trade agreements, for example, the EU- Russian energy mix and the US-China trade war. New alignments are shaping up, and old friends and alliances are finding themselves on opposite sides of the energy alignment; simultaneously, they are adapting and harmonizing with the current geopolitical situation.

On green hydrogen, he emphasised that Indian researchers have been active. Nevertheless, cost is a factor and the focus has also been more on blue hydrogen. The questions of economics trumping geopolitics and the success of the shift to hydrogen could be addressed.

The Q/A session broadly revolved around the themes of transition to greener energy, energy security, energy politics within Europe, nuclear energy option, North-South divide, India’s ability to deal with global risks and the need to focus on West Asia. 

The speaker responded to the comments and questions.

(Report prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA)