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Talk by Ms. Nomita Drall on "Developing Skills for Effective Writing" March 25, 2022 1030 to 1300 hrs Talk

A talk by Ms. Nomita Drall, freelance copyeditor, on "Developing Skills for Effective Writing", is scheduled for Friday, 25 March 2022 at 11.30 am in Seminar Hall 2.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Research Fellow and Coordinator, Non-Traditional Security Centre, will moderate the discussion.

Non-Traditional Security
5th West Asia Conference - India’s Approach to West Asia: Trends, Challenges and Possibilities March 29, 2022 to March 30, 2022 Conference

Live Streaming : DAY TWO


Live Streaming : DAY ONE


Executive Summary

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi, organised its 5th biennial West Asia Conference on March 29-30, 2022, in virtual mode. Speakers from India and abroad participated in the Conference and shared their perspectives on the changing contours of India’s growing engagement with the West Asian region, response of the countries of the region towards India’s policy, geopolitics and security situation in West Asia, challenges for the Indian community in the Gulf during Covid-19 pandemic, issues of energy security, and strategic and security cooperation between India and the region.

The West Asian region continues to remain in a state of flux even after a decade of the Arab unrest. The situation in Syria, Yemen and Libya remains fluid. A number of terrorist organisations and non-state actors continue to challenge the security and stability in West Asia. The recent Houthi attacks on the critical infrastructures in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are a major cause of insecurity in the Gulf region. The uncertainty over the ongoing Vienna talks to revive the Iranian nuclear deal, Israel’s growing engagement with the Arab countries after the signing of the Abraham Accords and perceived weakening of US presence in the region are some of the key geopolitical dynamics which will have severe implications for the region.

In such critical circumstances, India faces a number of challenges to engage with the countries of the region. India shares historical relations with West Asia; and has huge economic, energy, political, security and strategic stakes in the region. In recent years India has strengthened defence, security and strategic ties with a number of countries in the region. India’s security relations with the Gulf countries go beyond energy and diaspora security and there is an interest from both sides in expanding defence relations. While, during the last decade, the Arab unrest brought considerable challenges to India’s policy in the region, India has persevered in its engagements, successfully navigating the turbulence in the Arab world. While the COVID-19 pandemic severely affected the nine million strong Indian community in the Gulf, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to the Gulf leaders appealing to them to look after the Indians who are affected by the pandemic. Finally, it was suggested by the participants that, amid the changing regional and great-power geopolitics, India needs to enhance its engagement as a reliable partner for the key regional actors in West Asia.


Conference Coordinator:

Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan
Associate Fellow, IDSA
pk.prasanta@gmail.com

Eurasia & West Asia
Defence & Security Module Level I for BSF Commandant March 21, 2022 to April 01, 2022 Training Capsules

Programme

DAY 1

21 March, Monday
Time Topic Speaker
09:45 - 10:00 Briefing by OIC Training  
10.00 - 11:15 Illegal Financing in India : Challenges and Way Ahead Mr. Pradeep S. Gautam
11:30 - 12:45 India and Global Governance Amb. Manjeev S. Puri
13.00 - 14.00 Lunch Break
 
 
 
14.00 - 15.15 Contours of India-Pakistan relations post

US withdrawal from Afghanistan
Dr. Ashok K Behuria
15.30 - 16.45 Political options for Bangladesh post Sheikh Hasina and its impact on relations with India Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik
DAY 2

22 March, Tuesday
10.00 - 11:15 National Security Strategy with respect to the Emerging Security Scenario  Maj Gen (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi(Retd.)
DDG MP-IDSA
11:30 - 12:45 Understanding Political Islam and the

rise of Global Jihad  
Dr. Adil Rasheed
13.00 - 14.00 Lunch Break  
14.00 - 15.15 Theatre Commands : Concept, Structure and

Way Ahead 
Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.)
15.30 - 16.45 Managing India’s Land Borders  Dr. Pushpita Das
DAY 3

23 March, Wednesday
10.00 - 11:15 Emerging World Order Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA
11:30 - 12:45 Human Rights, Refugee Law and International Humanitarian Laws: Relevance in 21st Century Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay, SC (Retd.)
13.00 - 14.00 Lunch Break  
14.00 - 15.15 China’s Security and Military Structure 

Dr. MS Prathibha
15.30 - 16.45 India-China-Nepal triangle : The Himalayan Kingdom’s Strategic options Dr. Nihar R. Nayak
Report of Monday Morning Webinar on Quad and Ukraine Crisis March 14, 2022 Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak, Research Analyst, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on the topic ‘Quad and Ukraine Crisis’ at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 14 March 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Nayan and was attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Col. Deepak Kumar, senior scholars and research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

At the United Nations (UN), three of the four Quad members—the United States (US), Japan, and Australia—have adopted an outspokenly hostile stance toward Russia, while India abstained on all UN resolutions denouncing Russia. This action has set India apart from the other members of the Quad, raising the issue of whether it may cause fissures in the minilateral organization. In light of this, the webinar by Mr. Oak critically examined the Quad Joint Readout's key aspects and the impact of the Ukraine situation on the Quad. It investigated the belief that there are significant differences within the Quad. Should India be considered the Quad's weak link? Will the Quad be weakened by conflicting viewpoints on the Ukrainian crisis? The webinar concluded that the Quad has little role in the Ukrainian issue and events that occur outside of the Quad's geographic and functional scope should have no bearing on the grouping's operations.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi, the chair, made opening remarks on the topic and introduced the audience to the concept of hybrid warfare and Russia’s military action in Ukraine. Further, he highlighted the history and nationalism of Ukraine. He said that there were divergent views among Quad members in the midst of the Ukraine crisis. The chair, after introducing the topic and the speaker, called upon Mr. Niranjan Oak to deliver his talk for the day.

Mr. Niranjan Oak started his talk by highlighting that the Quad met virtually on 3 March 2022 and issued a joint statement. The tone and tenor of the statement was sober without harsh criticism of Russian actions in Ukraine. Three of four members had taken a critical stand against Russia.  India abstained on all UN resolutions denouncing Russia. Mr. Oak also threw some light on the salient features of the Quad joint read out and the impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Quad. He also briefly explained the structural contours of the Quad.

Further, he spoke on the several minilateral co-operations such as the Japan-South Korea-China trilateral and their importance in the Indo-Pacific region during post-cold war years till the recent times. Further, he stated that minilateral cooperation, depending on the nature of the threat, can be intensified horizontally as well as vertically. The Quad has proved to be nimble in expanding both horizontally and vertically. The gradual progression from assistant secretary level meetings to summit meetings had been the testimony of its vertical expansion. Moreover, the issues of infrastructure development, sustainability, technology, cyber domain and provision of global commons goods such as vaccine partnership show horizontal expansion of the Quad. It must be underlined that the very genesis of the Quad was attributed to the challenges emanating out of the region and the need to keep the regional order stable. The Quad group was formally rooted in the Indo-Pacific.

Moving on to the issue of the Ukraine crisis, Mr. Oak also commented on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the Quad. Despite divergent views, the Quad met and discussed the Ukraine crisis and came out with a joint read out. The joint statement was a testimony to the fact that Quad members respected each other's sensitivities, understood the purpose of minilaterals and were unlikely to mix regional issues with that of extra-regional developments. There have been many issues where individual Quad nations have different ways of responding such as Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) waiver to the COVID vaccines or the Myanmar crisis. In the case of the Myanmar crisis, India and Japan dealt with the junta differently than the remaining two countries of the Quad. India has always stood for a normative order. Further, the Quad has clearly expressed its commitments to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Indo-Pacific. Beyond that the Quad had little agency to impact events in the faraway conflict zones.

He mentioned that the Ukraine crisis is unlikely to weaken the Quad. However, if the US decided to impose sanctions on India over its defense ties with Russia that will likely have unwarranted effects on the Quad. He also mentioned that the very genesis of the Quad was attributed to the challenges emanating out of the Indo-Pacific. Despite divergent views, the Quad met and discussed the Ukraine crisis and released the joint read out accommodating views of all parties. Lastly, the Ukraine crisis is a test of the Quad’s resilience. If far flung events negatively impacted the functioning of the Quad, it would create serious questions about the longevity of the minilateral. If Quad comes out unscathed, it has a long way to go.

Responding to a comment made by Mr. Oak, Dr. Nayan raised a question regarding the use of the term neutrality. Should we use this term or avoid this term? If we go into the history of Non-Aligned Movement, theorists deliberately avoided the using of this term. In fact, India had not condemned the Russian operation but it did not mean that it had been approved. One has to realise the difference.

On the comment made by Mr. Niranjan Oak, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi (Retd.) commented on the legitimacy of voices that are criticising the Ukraine Crisis. For instance, India had launched a multi-pronged offensive into East-Pakistan in a similar manner from many directions including heli-borne and air-borne forces. We brought about a regime change which was stable and successful for the last fifty years. On the other hand, some powers launched massive military operations, justified regime change in Afghanistan, removed the Taliban and twenty years later put the Taliban back. What is the success of those regime changes vis-a-vis the regime India had changed? So, the question is not whether regime change is legitimate or not. The question is the legitimacy of voices which are protesting against a war for regime change vis-a-vis their own history in this regard. Further, he also raised some concerns about the relevance of the minilaterals and the relevance of a strategic partnership which does not include a military alliance. He also raised a concern about the relevance of hard power.

On the relevance of the hard power, Dr. Nayan commented that hard power and hybrid warfare are very much important. In the age of cyber security and drones, these conventional methods of war are still relevant. He also made a comment on the understanding of the concept of alliances that are still evolving. There is no single definition of alliance. Alliance is not what we generally perceive. Many times, alliance members are not protected. Even if you are not an alliance member, you are protected. There is no such thing as collective security emanating from the Quad. He stated how you structure your alliances, how you construct your alliances, how you write the script of your alliance matters, not the generally preconceived notions about alliances. Responding to the comment made by Dr. Nayan regarding the understanding of alliances, Mr. Oak commented that the concept of alignment is a broader concept. An alliance is a part of alignment. Depending upon the degree of convergence of security policies, alignment can be defined as either alliances or partnerships or virtual alliances or quasi alliances.

Cmde. Abhay Singh, Research Fellow, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA fully endorsed the major analytical takeaways by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi. He added that Russian action in Ukraine should be seen in context of power behavior. However, Mr. Oak’s presentation rightly focused on how a minilateralism should respond to a crisis beyond its specified geographical span. Further, he commented on the effectiveness of alliances such as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He said that even in cases of alliances, there exist divergent views among the constituents. E.g., in case of NATO, some times the French view differs vis-à-vis the position of the other members of NATO.

Col. Deepak Kumar, Research Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA commented on the Russia-Ukrainian crisis that had highlighted the fallacy of the international rules-based order about which the western democracies have been speaking for a very long time. Further, he stated that the facade of international rules supported the power of the powerful more than the powerless. He also commented on Atmanirbharta – self-sufficiency in the economic and military domains. Moreover, he said that the Quad is a means to promote interests in the Indo-Pacific region and may not be focused specifically on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Talking about the Quad and the Malabar Naval Exercise, he mentioned that Quad and the Malabar are two separate entities, and we should not mix one with the other. He also commented on the Galwan crisis. None of the Quad countries have spoken or are likely to speak in India’s favor in the future, at best they will abstain. Mr. Oak responded to these concerns by saying that although the Quad and the Malabar Exercise is not the same thing, the participants of Malabar are the same countries that constitute the Quad. Theoretically they are separate but practically they are the same.

Responding to Col. Deepak Kumar, Dr. Nayan commented that we should debate about whether we should get involved in the South China Sea (SCS) or not, whether we should restrict ourselves to the IOR. Lastly, Dr. Nayan posed a concern on the role of western powers on the Taiwan issue because the West (NATO countries) is running away from the Ukraine Crisis by saying that Ukraine is not a NATO member and thus they are not obliged to fight the battle. But if it happens to Taiwan, it raises a question mark on the West, especially the US which is a party to ‘the 1979 Taiwan relations act’.

Responding to the concern raised by Dr. Nayan on the IOR and SCS, Mr. Niranjan Oak commented that according to Indian Naval Doctrine, the IOR is India’s primary area of interest and the SCS is a secondary one. So, the whole purpose of the Quad is to keep an informal authority over IOR region. In the Indo-Pacific, the other three countries of the Quad would expect India to play a major role in the IOR. While in the SCS, India would expect the other three countries which are resident powers in that region to play a more active role.

Moreover, with reference to Galwan and Taiwan, Mr. Oak commented that the world has seen what the Quad did in case of Chinese territorial breach of the Galwan region. We have a major template for what Quad is going to do. Every country has to fight its own war. No other countries will come to rescue other countries. Hypothetically, in the case of Taiwan, there is an agreement between the US and Taiwan. Therefore, the US is likely get involved physically in Taiwan. It is better to look differently at what is happening in Ukraine and what will happen to Taiwan. Moreover, the Quad should be restricted to the Indo-Pacific region since every institution has a particular mandate on a particular agenda. If the Quad started taking roles in all the issues, its agenda would be diluted and not focused. It will not be as focused to deal with specific issues as it is today.

Questions and Comments

Following the extensive talk by the speaker, Dr. Rajiv Nayan first called upon Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi for his comments. Dr. Nayan later opened the floor to the panelists and participants for their comments and questions.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) thanked the chair and Mr. Niranjan Oak for his extensive presentation. He also thanked them for their in-depth perspectives on the subject. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bakshi asked the speaker to throw some light on the relevance of hard power.

Col. Deepak Kumar, raised two questions to the speaker. First, what in his view would be Quad’s position in the hypothetical case of Chinese aggression against Taiwan or India? His second question was whether Quad partnership has affected India's relations with Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asian region? He also commented on China's cartographic aggression against India.

On the recent Quad summit, Lt. Gen. (Dr.) Rakesh Sharma asked whether this was a way to pressurise India to take a stand on the crisis? He also asked whether we have reputational damage globally on our principled stand?

Dr. Rajiv Nayan and Mr. Niranjan Oak gave extensive and insightful remarks and a detailed discussion was held on all the comments and questions raised by the panelists and the participants.

 Report prepared by Mr. Pintu Kumar Mahla, Research Intern, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.

Nuclear and Arms Control Ukraine, Japan, India, Australia, United States of America (USA)
Webinar Report: India’s Approach to Cooperation with Africa February 24, 2022 1030 to 1300 hrs Other

On 24 February 2022, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised an international webinar on “India’s Approach to Cooperation with Africa”. Panelists included eminent speakers from India and Africa. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA delivered the opening remarks and the Keynote Address was delivered by Shri Dammu Ravi, Secretary (ER), Ministry of External Affairs. Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia chaired the first Session on “India-Africa Development Cooperation” and the second session on “India-Africa Security Cooperation” was chaired by Ambassador Gurjit Singh. The speakers in the first session included Mr. David Rasquinha, Dr. Philani Mthembu, Dr. Roberto J. Tibana and Dr. Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo; while Ms. Ruchita Beri, Prof. Hussein Solomon and Ms. Harriet Njoki Mboce, HSC were speakers of the second session. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) delivered the concluding remarks and the vote of thanks. The webinar was attended by scholars from MP-IDSA, guests from Gusau Institute, Nigeria and other invitees from various think-tanks.

Executive Summary

The webinar shed light on all salient aspects of India-Africa Development and Security Cooperation. The distinguished panelists drew from their long on-ground experiences and scholarly expertise to suggest the way forward in diversifying and strengthening the India-Africa relationship. The importance of African Union’s Vision 2063 for India’s approach to cooperation with Africa was highlighted. India-Africa partnership is truly multidimensional and India is a reliable partner for Africa.

Underscoring the mutual importance of India and Africa to each other, it was agreed that successful initiatives like India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) and India Africa Defence Ministers Conclave (IADMC) need to be regularised. The gaining traction of Indo-Pacific creates scope for strengthening India-Africa maritime cooperation. Acknowledging the existing mechanisms for cooperation with Africa, the need to explore potential new ideas like innovative financing, Public-Private Partnership (PPP) based models of development projects and creation of multidimensional institutions in Africa to create local value and capacities was emphasised.

Session I drew attention to the future prospects and avenues to strengthen India-Africa development cooperation. Exploring new areas to enhance India-Africa cooperation must build on existing strengths. It was underlined that India through setting up manufacturing hubs in Africa will play an important role in the economic transformation of Africa. The session pointed out that India could focus on supporting Africa in the industrial and manufacturing domain as well as healthcare sector. Furthermore, there was positive convergence on both sides about the partnership and a need to do more was underscored.

Session II delineated India-Africa security cooperation in traditional and non-traditional security domains. It also deconstructed Africa’s security architecture and the pervasive need to address challenges and concerns wholly from an African perspective. Furthermore, it also addressed how India could engage more proactively with its African partners to ensure continental security.

Detailed Report

Inaugural Session

The Webinar began with Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA welcoming all the distinguished panelists and esteemed guests. He acknowledged the diversity of expertise in the panel which included strategic thinkers, practitioners, former ambassadors and scholars. He shed light on events like Africa Day Round Table, India-Africa Strategic Dialogue and others that are regularly organised by MP-IDSA. Underscoring that India and Africa were mutually important for each other, he delivered the opening remarks of the webinar. Ambassador Chinoy highlighted the historical close ties and maritime trade links particularly between coastal regions of Gujarat and eastern Africa. He stated that the vast Indian diaspora in Africa helps promote ties. Reiterating India’s sustained support to Africa’s liberation from colonialism before and after Independence, he drew attention to the challenges of building consensus in a world inflicted with rising tensions, fractured power and weakened multilateralism in the context of United Nations (UN).

Ambassador Chinoy observed that the world has become flatter with the emergence of non-state actors, gray-zone tactics, disruptive technologies and cyber capabilities. Recognising the disruptive effect of the pandemic particularly on African economies, he indicated that there was scope for India and Africa to work together in dealing with these challenges. He stated that India is a reliable partner of Africa for capacity building programmes, promoting health care and medical assistance amongst others including its rich contributions to the United Nations Peace Keeping Operations (UNPKO). Emphasising successful initiatives like IAFS, he shared that MP-IDSA was the knowledge partner for the upcoming India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD). Stating the principles of equality, mutual respect and benefits underlying India-Africa partnership, he suggested potential areas for strengthening cooperation. India could consider collaborating with other countries like Japan, US, UAE for building capacity and developing infrastructure in Africa. He observed that the problem of piracy was shifting to Gulf of Guinea and suggested that perhaps India could work together with countries like France for ensuring maritime security in the region. Remarking on the gaining traction of the Indo-Pacific, he highlighted the scope for improving maritime cooperation between India and Africa as they are welded together by shared oceanic spaces.

On this note, Ambassador Chinoy introduced and welcomed Shri Dammu Ravi, Secretary (ER), Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), to deliver the keynote address. Shri Ravi began by acknowledging the panel. Drawing from his own experiences, he shared innovative new ideas for furthering the mutually beneficial India-Africa relationship to a much stronger partnership. He drew attention to efforts made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in bringing India-Africa closer. These include the announcements to open 18 new missions in Africa of which nine are already open, continued India-Africa summits and increased exchange of bilateral visits at various levels. He shed light on the PM’s address to the Ugandan Parliament which brought out the ten principles of India’s partnership with African countries. Observing that the logic of sharing was part of the cultural ethos of both regions, he asserted that more could be done by India besides the existing USD12 billion project commitment, Lines of Credits (LOCs) and grant assistance, capacity building under Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC), infrastructure projects of roads, bridges, ports and airports.

Recognising that lengthy processes take a toll on patience, he remarked that India must focus on being nimble footed in its cooperation with Africa and be sharper in its delivery timelines. Stating that it is unfair to compare India’s cooperation efforts with China, he underscored the need for ‘value creation’ as a measure to approach Africa. He assessed that Africa is no longer just a mineral rich continent but rather is itself changing, is highly aspirational and India’s priority must be to create value with the minerals within Africa instead of extracting them. Shri Ravi appreciated the far-sightedness of African Union’s Vision 2063 and stated that India through its industries could tap into the huge potential created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). With this background, he put forth multiple future prospects of India’s cooperation with Africa. In terms of trade, he proposed that manufacturing hubs must be created in the African continent with Indian support and joint venture with African locals. He shed light on underlying benefits of creating as well as sustaining employment along with multiplying revenue generation locally. This would be in spirit of India’s Aatamanirbhar Bharat which the PM made clear was for the world markets.

Emphasising that the government could not do everything, he underscored the potential of innovative financing and opening partnerships in the banking sector for executing projects in Africa. Referring to ITEC, he stressed on creation of multidimensional institutions on the African continent to create value locally and capacities to support Vision 2063. This could include the agriculture sector for Africa to become food self-sufficient; medical & healthcare sector to set-up medical colleges and nursing homes in a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model; enhancing technical education by exploring cooperation with USA, UK, France, Japan and others to create local technical skills to take advantage of new technologies. Shri Ravi proposed the idea of replicating India’s own successful and inexpensive flagship programmes in Africa by altering them to suit local conditions. In this context, he mentioned Aadhar, Ayushman Bharat, Har Ghar Jal and Saubhagya. Recognizing the need for prior study and pilot projects, he presented the benefits of implementing them gradually as this would create value in the relationship. He remarked on the shared diaspora and suggested creation of support mechanisms to strengthen people-to-people contacts. He concluded by reiterating the need to explore these ideas to further India’s cooperation with Africa.

Session I

Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and Former High Commissioner of India to South Africa and Kenya, chaired the first session of the webinar on the theme “India-Africa Economic Cooperation”. He began by paying tribute to the sterling work being done by MP-IDSA to promote India-Africa relationship. Greeting the diverse eminent panelists, he remarked on the truly multidimensional partnership of India-Africa and asserted the need for seizing every opportunity to listen to African voices. Ambassador Bhatia acknowledged the speakers who had joined from various African countries and shared his delight in being part of listening to experts from Africa. Expressing hope that the analysis and suggestions by the speakers would improve India’s policy approach to Africa, he moderated the first session.

Mr. David Rasquinha, Member, Advisory Board on Banking and Financial Frauds and Former Managing Director at Export-Import Bank of India, drew inputs from his rich on-ground experiences and shared valuable suggestions for strengthening India-Africa development cooperation. He began by reflecting on financial assistance as central to development cooperation. In this context, he highlighted the unintended consequences and challenges of categorisation of developing countries to provide assistance. In order to cope with it, he suggested that India must focus on simplifying processes and legal documents as well as ensure uniform terms for all developing countries. Speeding up processes in inter-ministerial consultations, enhancing the ability of Indian companies to meet international standards as well as avoiding multiple ministerial consultations could be India’s priorities. Addressing the usually raised issues of Indian content, Mr. Rasquinha explained that considering India is itself a developing country and furthermore, a democracy dealing with issues like poverty, India’s conditionality of Indian content in offering technical assistance and financial aid is justified so as to ensure support of its population for such initiatives.

Mr. Rasquinha proposed three distinct ideas focusing on healthcare, investments and funding of projects. On healthcare, he referred to EXIM Bank’s “Madiba-Mahatma Initiative” and influx of Africans in medical tourism to India. He underscored that setting up a network of hospitals in Africa initially operated by well-established Indian hospitals and eventually handed over to locals would transform healthcare in Africa. Noting the transactional nature of development projects, he suggested building a lasting investment driven India-Africa relationship. Citing the example of Suzuki operations in India; he proposed developing lasting commercial relations between Indian companies and the partner company in Africa. In terms of funding, Mr. Rasquinha shed light on the need to expand EXIM Bank’s branches in Africa and encourage Indian banks to establish corresponding banking networks in Africa that could generate local savings and supplement development finance.

Dr. Philani Mthembu, Executive Director, Institute for Global Dialogue, South Africa, emphasised that efforts to explore new areas to enhance India-Africa cooperation must build on the existing strengths. Some of these include people-to-people ties, private sector partnerships and reforms in development partnership administration. He assessed that ITEC, deputation of Indian experts abroad and extending loans were part of the growing multiplicity of tools that India has used in cooperating with the African continent. He shed light on the lessons of the pandemic, increase in African stakeholders in India, strengthening of norm entrepreneurs in changing international landscapes, the crisis of multilateralism, problems within World Health Organisation (WHO) and the convergence of India-African countries on intellectual property rights. He underscored that for India-Africa development cooperation to move forward, India must draw from the developmental challenges and opportunities identified by Africa in its Agenda 2063.

Dr. Mthembu identified the AfCFTA as a key element of Agenda 2063 and opined that India could play an important role in operationalizing the AfCFTA as well as developing regional value chains. Reflecting on the growing population dominated by the youth, he underlined the opportunities it presents as a growing market for Indian enterprises. He indicated that the role played by Indian private sector in countries with weak diplomatic ties was an advantage for India. He explained that by establishing regional value chains, India could provide the cooperation that Africa needs in order to play a greater role in a multipolar world. However, Dr. Mthembu cautioned that India’s leverage of its advantages and approach to Africa must be motivated by underlying shared historical ties rather than be driven due to increased engagement by EU or US with the continent. He concluded by highlighting the plethora of services like education, jobs, healthcare required by the African continent that India could provide and focus on working with African stakeholders.

Dr. Roberto J. Tibana, Director of Research, African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET), Ghana, began by sharing the conclusions of a group of experts gathered by ACET in 2014 - “Africa is growing but was not transforming.” He shared insightful remarks on avenues for India to support the economic transformation of Africa and highlighted the convergences of opinions between the Indian and African speakers as a positive sign of improving the partnership. Dr. Tibana presented the five dimensional aspects of economic transformation – diversification of economies, export competitiveness, increase in productivity, technological upgrading and human well-being. He appreciated that Secretary (ER)’s keynote address focused on the operationalisation of all these aspects. Remarking on the challenge of job creation for the youth, he stated the need for companies developed by Africans and by foreigners in Africa and indicated India as among as the key players. He expressed that setting up manufacturing hubs in Africa was the need of the hour and is well in tune with Africa’s vision.

Dr. Tibana explained that growth with transformation would require Africa to focus on technology and trade linkages with the Rest of the World (ROW) as well as within itself in a versatile manner. India could assist in the same as there is cohesiveness and intersection in the Indian and African thinking. He stated that partnership between India and Japan was welcome in policy making and would energize Asia-Africa cooperation. On the issue of energy transition, he opined that India’s investments in Gas and Oil in Mozambique were welcome inspite of the controversies of energy sources as Africa particularly is currently in need of investments in Gas and Oil to facilitate eventual transition of energy, promote foreign exchange and feed into domestic industry. Pointing out that India was shifting gears in terms of its economic outlook for cooperation with Africa, he stressed on the need for enhancing skills in all sectors of economic activity in Africa. Dr. Tibana concluded by reiterating the agenda to be pursued by India as “produce in Africa and invest in Africa”.

Dr. Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo, Principal Research Associate, Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Tanzania, expressed his appreciation of Secretary (ER)’s address which seemed like that of a special ambassador to Africa. Sharing about the collaboration between think-tanks in Africa, he remarked that they all opine India of all countries has a special and unique relationship with Africa. This is evidenced by the presence of Indian diaspora in Africa and trade between the two regions particularly of minerals exports like gold. He acknowledged the need for India to invest in local manufacturing of minerals instead of extracting. Referring to ITEC programmes, he stated that countries like Tanzania had benefitted in terms of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and training of irrigation engineers. He suggested that centers of excellence set up by ITEC must consider expanding to other sectors like medical, agricultural, etc.

Dr. Lunogelo drew attention to the opportunities for Indian companies to invest in Green Clean energy and cited examples of efforts made by Rwanda to use green energy. Mentioning the popular presence of Indian motorcycle company Bajaj, he stated that reserves in natural gas in Mozambique and India presented opportunities for both of them. Emphasising that India and Africa could improve trade in agriculture and commodities, he briefly remarked on the challenges faced by Tanzania in exports to India. He presented the contours of improvement for India-Tanzania development cooperation. Dr. Lunogelo proposed that India could invest in the creation of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Tanzania through a PPP based model. He concluded by acknowledging India as Africa’s key partner with comprehensive advantages.

In the Q/A session, questions pertaining to cyber security and India-Africa synergy in practice to drive growth in both continents was raised. Panelists observed that cyber security was an important pillar of India-Africa cooperation and India has the potential to play a leading role in the cyber domain. It was noted that balance between citizen concerns and government prerogatives would be important. Furthermore, it was noted with particular emphasis that cyber-attacks affect small scale enterprises more severely and India through its ITEC could focus on skill transfer to create robustness in cyber architecture of small scale companies. On India-Africa synergy, the need for investment and creation of manufacturing hubs in Africa to utilise the growing demographic dividend was highlighted. It was reiterated that setting up manufacturing hubs would be mutually beneficial as labour is cheaper in Africa.

Ambassador Bhatia concluded the first session by reiterating the key highlights of the first session. India-Africa cooperation must focus on economic transformation, move beyond trade and investment by prioritizing industrial and manufacturing domain. Healthcare is another priority sector. Furthermore, Ambassador Bhatia called for the need to recapture the momentum of India-Africa ties by regularly convening the India-Africa Forum Summits.

Session II

Ambassador Gurjit Singh, Chairman, CII Task Force on Trilateral Partnerships in Africa and Former Ambassador of India to AU and Ethiopia, opened the second session for discussion by expressing his gratitude to MP-IDSA and highlighted its role as a knowledge partner for the IADD. Echoing the remarks made by the chair of the previous session, Ambassador Bhatia, he reiterated that India and Africa need to re-engage institutionally, including on security cooperation. He also explained that India and Africa built their relationship by establishing military academies in Ethiopia and Nigeria, training personnel, and participation in the UNPKO. Today, the focus has shifted towards non-traditional security domains, such as counter-terrorism, piracy, and climate change. However, he asserted that these threats are not evenly attended to, with anti-piracy operations assuming primacy.

Furthermore, Ambassador Singh added that India became one of the first countries to incorporate Eastern and Southern African seaboards within its Indo-Pacific Ocean context. Therefore, India can be a security provider and support base for African countries. He also underlined that, unlike other African countries’ partners, India engages with Africa through capacity building instead of dictating its internal matters.

Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate & Coordinator, Africa, LAC & UN Centre, MP-IDSA, underscored how India has prioritised its foreign policy towards Africa and how India–Africa partnership is driven by African priorities. She delineated how India’s engagement with Africa spans different levels, including pan-Africa, regional, and bi-lateral levels. India’s SAGAR doctrine – Security and Growth for All in the Region – initially flagged in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in Mauritius in 2014, drives India’s security cooperation with the African continent. There is recognition within India that development and security are intertwined and how underdevelopment, directly and indirectly, undermines African security. Moreover, she highlighted how security enables and protects the fruit of development and discussed three pillars of India’s engagement with Africa, such as training, UNPKO, and maritime security. Training has served as India’s main focus of its Africa policy, with emphasis being placed on enhancing skills, training military officers, including the Nigerian President Mohammadu Buhari, a notable alumni of the Defence Services Staff College (Wellington).

Ms. Beri also emphasised how India has actively participated in promoting peace through the UNPKO and deployed women peacekeepers, including in Liberia. This has helped in enhancing the role of women in security and peace operations. Indian women peacekeepers were hailed as role models for gender equality and an inspiration for women in local communities to enter the security domain. India has also cooperated in the maritime sphere through the deployment of its navy in anti-piracy operations and delivery of humanitarian aid on request of African countries due to its shared interests in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, she pointed out that India has sought to enhance its cooperation with Africa by hosting the biennial Defence Ministers Conclave in February 2020 and will do so again in March 2022. Moreover, she recommended that it is crucial to understand African priorities and challenges to enhance India–Africa cooperation.

Additionally, Ms. Beri highlighted further how the African continent had been mired with conflicts over the years; however, it has also witnessed economic growth and political reforms over the last two decades. Like India, Africa has also confronted non-traditional security challenges, including climate change, directly impacting its food and energy security issues. Furthermore, health-based concerns have become securitised, as the discussions surrounding the outbreak of the Ebola Virus and COVID-19 pandemic have found a place on the international agenda, and have become national security priorities. On the other hand, she claimed that terrorism has also served as a critical area of concern for India and Africa. Therefore, India must engage with Africa on these issues. According to the speaker, it is essential to learn from each other’s experiences and construct a common discourse on issues of mutual interest. India’s contribution to peacekeeping has served to promote peace in Africa, while its forces have also learned from African conflict resolution mechanisms. However, India must ensure its policies address diversity since Africa is not a monolithic entity.

Professor Hussein Solomon, Senior Professor, Security Studies and Conflict Resolution, Department of Political Science, University of Free State, South Africa, explained that India and Africa have common interests in the reform of the global multilateral system, including the United Nations Security Council and the United Nations Peacebuilding Committee. The speaker also affirmed that the critical juncture the world has found itself in amid great uncertainty and rupture has provided fertile ground for India and Africa security cooperation. However, security has deteriorated in Africa, more so in the Sahel region, over the years, despite foreign troops’ presence and financial assistance, and France recently announced its decision to exit from Mali. He provided statistics, beginning from 1989, for validating his claims. Such challenges have emerged from Africa’s post-colonial legacy, dysfunctional state security apparatus, arms and narco-trafficking, food insecurity, and the youth bulge with increasing demands to address unemployment. Consequently, alternative power centres have come to the fore.

Professor Solomon also added that over the years, living standards have also worsened. It is worrisome that some of Africa’s most powerful states, including Nigeria and South Africa, are experiencing turmoil as deteriorating socio-economic conditions have resulted in ethnic secessionism, political agitation, and electoral violence. Africa’s standby forces and regional economic communities have failed to address these growing challenges. He also underlined that given India’s growing interest in Africa, it needs to move away from viewing its security policy through a state-centric lens to reflect current reality. India also needs to be more proactive in engaging with Africa’s private sector and community-based organisations to ensure African security. These non-state actors are playing an increasingly important role as the state's power declines since it has proved incapable of securing the continent on its terms.

Professor Solomon also pointed out that the military might remain insufficient to eliminate the proliferation of terrorists across the continent. As indicated by the Global Terrorism Index, governance determines the size, longevity, and success of terrorist groups. Therefore, India needs to prioritise good governance in its security relations with Africa. Currently, India mainly imitates a Western approach in its security cooperation with the African continent. Therefore, he recommended that it develop an indigenous approach in this regard.

While underscoring that privatisation of security is a new trend, Ambassador Singh added that India is not ready to directly step into any internal African matters. Indian contribution remains limited to the traditional security support it provides for capacity building to African countries. He also appreciated Professor Solomon’s point about how the African security architecture leaves much to be desired.

Ms. Harriet Njoki Mboce, HSC, Consultant and Policy Advisor, Faculty, School of Law, University of Nairobi and Advocate, High Court of Kenya, acknowledged MP-IDSA’s role in bringing together an African-centric panel for the webinar. She reiterated Shri Dammu Ravi’s point about the strong ties between India and Kenya, how Indians are referred to as the “44th tribe” in Kenya, and how India has greatly absorbed African students. She emphasised a need to look at cooperation from an African perspective. According to her, maritime security is a critical domain of security collaboration, and the newly instituted Kenyan Security Guard Service can play a role in this regard. Some of the areas of collaboration include pollution control, maritime security and safety, trafficking of drugs, arms, ammunition, and illegal goods, sanitation, prosecution of maritime offenders, and search and rescue.

Ms. Mboce also called for collaboration between coastal guards, research, and academic institutions. The speaker also emphasised the need for software and hardware search and rescue capacity building as part of Indian and Kenyan Coast Guards’ joint initiative. She also introduced the idea of exchange programmes for students to get a hands-on approach in dealing with maritime security issues.

During the Q/A session, Ambassador Singh refuted one of the comments about the lack of cooperation between India and Africa in peace and security architecture and mentioned how African countries prefer Western partners in the security and peace domain and India on development issues. India is a country that will accommodate proposals emanating from the African continent and not thrust its proposals on the African states. However, India has contributed funds to the upkeep of the African Mission in Somalia and for operations in the Sahel through the African Union’s Peace and Security Architecture Peace Fund.

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, expressed his gratitude to the Chair for moderating the session and highlighted how the Kenyan Coast Guard’s capacity building proposal must emanate from within Kenya and must be driven by Kenyan priorities. He also highlighted the spillover of terrorism from countries in the Sahel region, including Mali, the effects of which are already visible.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, concluded the webinar by speaking about the wonderful intellectual African Safari that this session had provided. He highlighted his experience in Africa as a UN Peacekeeper in Angola between 1995 and 1996. He expressed his appreciation of the historically rich cooperation between India and Africa, as was mentioned by the eminent panelists. He underscored the long-standing presence of Indian diaspora, technology, Indian teachers and military trainers in Africa. He also highlighted the importance of looking at the concept of Make in Africa for Africa and the World since greater cooperation and an Exclusive Economic Zone approach were also discussed in today’s webinar. It is equally significant to expand skilling efforts in healthcare, engineering, IT training, counter-terrorism, cyber security, and maritime security cooperation.

He proposed the vote of thanks on behalf of team MP-IDSA and expressed his profound gratitude to the eminent speakers for sparing time from their busy schedules to share their thoughts and participate in the discussions. He also expressed his special thanks to the Chairpersons, Ambassador Singh and Ambassador Bhatia who skilfully guided the discussions and showered generous praise on the Institute and the Africa team in their opening remarks. He also expressed his profound gratitude to Ambassador Chinoy for guiding the preparations for the webinar and illuminating the discussion with his introductory remarks, the Africa centre scholars, and the web team for setting up and conducting an excellent webinar. He looks forward to similar engagements in the future. Finally, he thanked the participants for patiently engaging and listening to the discussions and bade everyone a good evening.

Report prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA (Inaugural session & Session I) and Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA (Session II and Concluding remarks).

Event Report of Monday Morning Webinar on Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka: An Assessment February 14, 2022 Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 14 February 2022. The Webinar was moderated by Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi and other scholars of the Institute participated in the Webinar.

Executive Summary

The focus of the webinar was on the ongoing economic crisis in Sri Lanka and the efforts initiated by the government to deal with the crisis. The reasons for the forex reserves crisis in Sri Lanka due to the global pandemic and debt servicing commitments of the government were discussed. The Webinar also dealt with the impact of the crisis on tourism, exports and remittances.  External assistance, India’s role in mitigating the crisis and its impact on India-Sri Lanka relations was also discussed.

Detailed Report

Introducing the topic, Dr. Anand Kumar pointed out that the pandemic has created a financial crisis for a large number of countries, especially in small Island nations in South Asia like Sri Lanka and the Maldives. He informed that both these countries are heavily dependent on the tourism sector and added that Sri Lanka faced a decline both in terms of proceeds from tourism and foreign remittances, and now it is facing a serious shortage of foreign exchange. The tourism industry that contributes more than ten percent to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product was badly hit and there was a cascading effect. He added that Sri Lanka is also under heavy foreign debt and there are fears that the country could go bankrupt this year. The economic crisis in Sri Lanka is deepening and the country appears to be staring at a “humanitarian crisis”.

Dr. Gulbin Sultana, pointed out that the present economic crisis was largely due to the depletion in the forex reserves since September 2020. But the crisis became worse when in November 2021, there was a sharp decline in forex reserves. Pointing out that Sri Lanka is an import-dependent country both for essential and non-essential commodities, she held that the importers were finding it difficult to get letters of credit issued in the banks to settle their import payments. Due to the shortage of fuel in the country, many power plants in the country have had to be kept shut for many days which has created a severe power crisis in Sri Lanka. The pandemic has mainly impacted the tourism, export and remittance sector. The number of tourist arrivals dropped drastically adversely impacting the revenue generated due to tourism.  During the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, adequate foreign currency was not coming into the country but a huge amount was going out of the country as the government had to settle the debt, and on top of it, the government had to pay for its daily requirements. 

According to the current government in Sri Lanka, there are inherent problems in the economy because all the previous governments have spent more money than they have earned. So the government is trying to reduce expenditure. Import restrictions on some non-essential items have also been introduced by the government. There is a ban on chemical fertilizers in the country and there is a sudden change from chemical fertilizers to organic farming, which is likely to have a disastrous impact on agricultural production.  There is already a huge protest in the country against this ban. Enlisting the other measures the government has taken to deal with the crisis, she said that the government is relying on bilateral partners, particularly for loans and currency swap facilities while also working out ways to boost investors’ confidence and attract external investment.  Interestingly, the government is not ready for any IMF bailout fearing conditions, which will be difficult for the government to meet, even though experts, economists and even the opposition in the country are suggesting that it approaches the IMF. The government is looking for homegrown solutions not taking into consideration the declining economic situation, according to the opposition and economists. What the country needs now is a long-term, low-interest bail-out, as this crisis is likely to continue for at least the next two years.

Talking about foreign assistance to help the Sri Lankan Government weather the current crisis, the speaker informed the audience that India has committed US$ 2.4 billion and China has extended a US $1.5 billion swap facility. Negotiations are on with China for a fresh loan to repay the Chinese debt. However, so far, there is no commitment from the Chinese side to this effect. There has been an interesting development in Sri Lanka-Bangladesh relations as Bangladesh has committed a US$200 million swap facility which has increased the forex reserve. Reportedly, Pakistan has also agreed to extend a US$200 million loan for the purchase of rice and cement. Negotiations are on with Qatar to facilitate a US $ 1 billion currency swap facility.

Dwelling on India’s assistance to Sri Lanka, the speaker said that India and Sri Lanka signed a four-point package of cooperation in December 2021 which includes, a US$ 1billion credit line to import food and medicine, a line of credit of $500 million for fuel import from India, deferral of two months on Sri Lanka’s dues to the Asian Clearing Union, worth $500 million, and a US$ 400 million swap facility. There are talks about increasing Indian investment in Sri Lanka under the four-point package. Whenever there is a crisis in Sri Lanka, India has always stepped in and this time too, India has extended help, putting aside the strains in India-Sri Lanka relations in 2020-21 following the cancellation of the East Container Terminal Project (ECT). The recent signing of the MoUs on the Trincomalee Oil farm project suggests that relations are back on track.

Despite these positive developments, there are still concerns in India about Sri Lankan behaviour. Sri Lanka has tried to address India’s concerns only when the former has been in crisis, to gain favour from India, but as soon as the crisis is over, it takes India for granted. Indian policymakers must be alive to these issues so as to avoid any unpleasant situation in bilateral relations in the future. 

Discussion

The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy pointed out that the pandemic has no doubt affected Sri Lanka, more than India, perhaps, given the nature of its economy which depends a great deal on tourism. The tourism industry in Sri Lanka ground to a halt and the expatriate workers who came back home badly impacted the remittance sector. Because China has a zero-COVID policy, the movement of people from China was restricted. As a result, Chinese outbound tourism is virtually nonexistent right now. This provides an opportunity for India to try and replace the undue reliance of Sri Lanka on Chinese tourists. It is inevitable that smaller neighbors will continue to have an element of discomfort in terms of dependence on the Indian economy as it is counterproductive for them. 

The Deputy Director, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, while referring to the speaker’s concluding observation that Sri Lanka looks towards India only in times of crisis, underlined the points of apprehension of the Island nation towards India in the past. He mentioned that India-Sri Lanka had a very strong security and defense relationship but once the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) pulled out, they always felt that India has not done enough in those years to stem the LTTE. The latest economic crisis in Sri Lanka was mostly averted by the Chinese bail-out, India has also helped but it is not publicized much. He stressed that India’s capability to execute projects well needs to be looked into in order to address the issue of Sri Lanka’s dependence on China. 

Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow observed that India is a factor in Sri Lanka's domestic politics, especially because of persisting relevance of issues concerning Tamil politics. Since Sinhala-Buddhists are in a majority, the government tries to pander to their sentiments. Moreover, since the end of the war in 2009, the government has been promoting a Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist agenda. She pointed out that India has always argued for the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution. In fact, when the Sri Lankan Government made attempts to repeal it, India's Foreign Secretary visited Sri Lanka to convey India's stand on the issue. She underlined that the approach of the Sri Lankan government to the Tamil issue would continue to be an important factor in India-Sri Lanka relations. In spite of India's help to Sri Lanka in dealing with the economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s approach to India would be determined by domestic politics.

Talking about Sri Lanka’s approach towards Indian investment, she added that it has always been political. For example, it scrapped the MoU on East ECT terming ECT as a national asset but now Chinese companies are engaged in the same project. This same approach is visible in the project on Trincomalee Oil tanks. Moreover, those business houses and trade unions that have protested against India's investment in ECT or against the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) are close to the ruling regime.  She added that India's economic engagement has always been politicised in Sri Lanka. She argued that it will be difficult for Sri Lanka to expand its market and increase its exports because its top export destinations are the US and EU and both these countries have hardened their stance on human rights issues. There has been an attempt not to extend the Generalized System of Preferences to Sri Lanka to put pressure on Sri Lanka on the human rights issue.

During the Q&A, responding to various queries from the participants the speaker observed that there is hope that the situation will improve once COVID conditions improve but she underlined that it was important to understand that Sri Lanka had a debt-service commitment amounting to US$25 during 2021-2025. There is a need to take a proactive approach so the inflow of money does not create further debt. She also emphasised that loan re-structuring will not resolve the issue, but it will give Sri Lanka breathing space at a moment when there is depletion in forex reserves. Talking about US-Sri Lanka relations, the speaker pointed out that India-Sri Lanka relations at the moment were better than US-Sri Lanka relations. Sri Lanka refused to take the Millennium cooperation grant from the US, and ultimately the US canceled the grant. Sri Lanka is also not ready to go to the IMF for a bail-out and it only seeks technical assistance from IMF. Talking about the European Union (EU), the speaker pointed out that the EU is the biggest market for Sri Lankan products but there is a lot of pressure from the EU on Sri Lanka over the human rights issue. 

The report has been prepared by Dr. Zainab Akhter, RA.

South Asia Sri Lanka, Economic Crisis
Talk on “Colonial Borders as ‘State Simplification’ Project: Garo Hills in the late 19th and early 20th Century”, by Shri Sanjeeva Kumar, IAS, former Secretary (Border Management) February 02, 2022 Talk

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a virtual Talk on “Colonial Borders as State ‘Simplification’ Project: Garo Hills in the late 19th and early 20th Century” by Shri Sanjeeva Kumar, IAS, former Secretary (Border Management) on 02 February 2022. The discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and was attended by Maj. Gen. Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Dr. Pushpita Das, Col. DPK Pillay, and other members of the MP-IDSA fraternity.

Executive Summary

The State ‘Simplification’ Project in the Garo Hills was essentially a new resource management regime designed to give the colonial power larger control over the fertile Garo Hills. The Project imposed artificial boundaries in the region by dividing and delegitimising the Garo community. It completely destroyed the Garos popular culture, customs, practices and social relations. A majority of the contemporary border disputes in Northeast India stem from the colonial period and necessitate a thorough understanding of the boundary notifications and the lines that preceded them.

Detailed Report

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, initiated the talk by introducing the audience to the speaker’s diverse background and his extensive experience in Northeast India. Ambassador Chinoy, at the outset, acknowledged that the majority of the problems Northeast India faces today have their roots in the colonial period, when Britishers loosely defined their borders in order to serve their ultimate goal of building a colonial empire. Thus, their policies and practises in Northeast India, as well as in Myanmar and adjoining areas, were derived from the 'holistic frontier policy'. Ambassador Chinoy emphasised the importance of viewing and understanding contemporary challenges in the Northeast through the lens of its colonial history.

Shri Sanjeeva Kumar depicted the manner in which Britishers drew artificial lines in the Garo hills of Meghalaya (then part of Assam) during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and the disastrous impact they had on everyday issues of livelihood and social relationships. He claimed that the 'project' was undertaken haphazardly to simplify the limited state functions of taxation and law enforcement, as well as to facilitate greater control over natural resources. This, in turn, resulted in large scale discontent and displacement of Garos and eventually led to widespread protests erroneously referred to as "irrational acts of barbarism and idiosyncrasy of the hill men".

Shri Kumar termed the colonial efforts in the nascent South Asian states as State 'Simplification' Project, claiming that the Project was essentially a 'new resource management regime’ driven by the exigencies of the Industrial Revolution. The same was true of the Garo Hills, where the Britishers strived to expand their control over the fertile foothills by completely dividing and delegitimizing the Garo community. Shri Kumar discussed the manner in which the State 'Simplification' Project was facilitated in the Garo Hills through gradually declaring 'reserve forests' in 1864 and then declaring the community land as 'Wasteland' in 1878. According to him, the entire process overlooked record keeping, land demarcation, and the creation of revenue maps. Meanwhile, surveys and settlements received adequate attention as these provided ‘documentary intelligence’ in the forms of making of theodolite stations, drawing of cadastral maps etc.

Shri Sanjeeva Kumar also delved into the modus operandi of the State ‘Simplification’ Project in the Garo Hills. He noted that the Britishers, in a bid to make the Garos more ‘legible’ and easier to govern, consciously arranged them into five ‘artificial categories’- Bemalua, Bibhagnama, Nazrana, Zamindari and Namdani.  This also gave the State a greater control over the population. Habraghat Pargana, located in the south of the foothills, became the actual point of contest where the boundaries were frequently drawn by the Britishers and where the non-tribal Zamindars, Garos and the Britishers- were engaged in a war of attrition for exercising greater control over natural resources of the foot hills. The Project resulted in large-scale Garo displacement and mindless violence manifested during the 1807-1819 raids, and, ultimately led to a protracted conflict for the Garo land. He opined that the subjectivity of the Garos shifted with shifting boundaries in the foothills. While ‘Bemalua’ remained free, the others moved on the continuum from freedom to subordination.

The speaker underscored that the year 1901 marked a watershed moment in the Garos’ history, as their protests shifted from a tribal-based movement to a larger struggle for Garo land. He also emphasised Sonaram Sangma's pivotal contributions to the protracted Garos' agitation. Sangma used history and the legal system to restore the Garos' customary rights over 500 square miles of land, including the Garo Hills, foothills, and parts of the plains. Although the Garos' long battle with the Colonial State yielded little fruit, the community heroically confronted the artificial barriers with a variety of responses.

Shri Sanjeeva Kumar concluded his presentation by emphasising the need to rethink border studies in South Asia, which have mostly focused on 'security' issues while completely ignoring the eco-system of border regions. The speaker also alluded to the north eastern states' limited success in resolving the boundary disputes, cautioning them against interpreting colonial borders as "sacrosanct" and "immutable." Shri Kumar advocated for an "open-minded" approach to resolve the existing boundary disputes, backed up with a thorough grasp of border-making procedures throughout the colonial period.

Discussion and Key Takeaways

During the discussion, the panellists expressed their concerns over important issues like colonial division of East Bengal from rest of the Northeast, settlement of boundary disputes between Assam and Nagaland, and the restoration of tribal customary rights while redefining the colonial borders in the Northeast, etc.

As a way forward, the panellists concurred on the importance of studying the nitty-gritty of colonial border marking exercises. However, the same ought to be seen in the backdrop of customary usage of the past and the existing ground realities in the Northeast.

The talk concluded with the vote of thanks by Dr. Pushpita Das, Coordinator, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

The Report has been prepared by Ms. Rajbala Rana, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA.

Report of Monday Morning Webinar on “Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting: Decoding the Joint Statement” February 21, 2022 Monday Morning Meeting

Event Report

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.) spoke on the topic Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting: Decoding the Joint Statement at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 21 February 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Titli Basu and was attended by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars & research analysts of MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

Despite its cautious beginnings in 2017 the Quad dialogues have significantly progressed and this is reflected in the Joint Statement issued at the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Melbourne on 11 February 2022. The analysis of the Joint Statements of Quad’s Leadership Dialogue and the recent Foreign Ministers Dialogue reveals that there have been subtle differences in the language of the statements issued by the individual nations. But these statements also indicate a growing strategic convergence among the four nations that have been evident from the evolving consensus and expanding areas of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region, raising the prospects for the formation of a concrete mandate for the Quad. The areas of cooperation within the Quad have been institutionalised into three core working groups focusing on vaccine production, climate change and emerging technologies. Also, emphasis has been laid on improving cooperation in the field of infrastructure and information technologies. The Joint Statement has stressed on promoting the concept of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific taking into account the geostrategic significance of the Southeast Asian Nations in the region.

The first page of the statement reiterates the Quad’s commitment towards supporting regional and sub-regional mechanisms on issues of maritime security, cyber security, HADR operations, terrorism and disinformation. The second page of the joint statement focuses extensively on aspects of maritime security for facilitating capacity-building to strengthen Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), ensuring Freedom of Navigation (FoN), protection of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and combating Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing.  The final page of the statement dwells upon cooperation on the issues of counter-terrorism, combating disinformation and flagging coercive economic policies. The statement has condemned the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and Pathankot which is a considerable diplomatic achievement for India. Concerns regarding Myanmar and North Korea have been expressed in the Joint Statement.  The Quad nations have pledged greater capacity building in the field of clean energy through facilitating exchange programmes and technology transfers. Overall institutionalising Quad 2.0 remains a work in progress but the process is progressively shaping more like an axiom than a conundrum.

Detailed Report

Dr. Titli Basu, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA commenced the session by bringing into perspective heightened diplomatic activity centred around the Indo-Pacific discourse that included the Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting, the unveiling of the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy by the Biden Administration and European Union’s (EU) Indo-Pacific Forum. Dr. Basu also highlighted the Munich Security Conference held on 18 February 2022 where the Hon’ble External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had underscored India’s pragmatic approach towards Quad and debunked the Chinese narrative of describing the grouping as an ‘Asian NATO’. Commenting on the Joint Statement made by the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Dr. Basu stated that besides the vaccine partnership there has been extensive focus on aspects like maritime security, maritime domain awareness, counter-terrorism, HADR operations, cybersecurity and countering disinformation which reflects the broad-based security agenda of Quad. She also pointed out the Joint Statement’s focus on regional security issues like Afghanistan, South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS), Myanmar and North Korea. Citing the joint press interactions of the Foreign Ministers’ Dr. Basu stated that the escalation of tensions in Ukraine and Taiwan have also been put on the diplomatic high table amongst the Quad nations. She also pointed out the Chinese reactions accompanied by the usual rhetoric of calling the Quad a product of Cold War mentality, reflecting China’s resentment towards the grouping. With these opening remarks, Dr. Basu invited Cmde. Abhay Singh to give his presentation.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, began his presentation by recalling the cautious beginning of the Quad consultation on 12 November 2017 in Manila during the sidelines of the East Asia Summit which resulted in producing a short and brief joint statement among the four nations devoid of any deeper meaning but gained lots of international attention. Revisiting his assessment of this first Quad meeting Cmde. Singh stated that in the Indo-Pacific geopolitics the relevance of Quad can be considered both as an axiom as well as a conundrum. Taking stock of the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region between 2007 and 2017, Cmde. Singh stated that the idea of the region as a strategic confluence between the Indian and Pacific Oceans emerged at that time. Here maritime geopolitics became the centrepiece of the strategic narrative concerning the Indo-Pacific. Also taking into account the debate among the strategic community during the 2000s on whether China’s rise can be considered benevolent or malevolent to the Indo-Pacific, Cmde. Singh stated that a majority of prominent views by 2017 characterised China’s rise as malevolent. He also brought out that until then the ASEAN continued to remain divided on its views towards China’s rise, but developments including China’s promulgation of SCS based on the Nine-Dash Line and its non-acceptance of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) verdict confirmed China’s aggressive approach in the region and its disdain for a rules-based international order. Cmde. Singh stated that as a result of this, the interregnum between the first and second Quad consultation signified the growing strategic convergence between the four nations of the Quad.

Reiterating his view on the Quad having elements of both Axiom and Conundrum, Cmde. Singh stated that aspects like value based partnership for promoting a rules based order and a shared vision for ‘Free and Open’ Indo-Pacific focusing on connectivity and regional balance denotes axiom. At the same time elements of Conundrum are reflected by the divergent interests among the Quad nations, the perception of the grouping by some observers as Cold-War Redux to counter China and the lack of a framework that contributed to the uncertainty of the viability of the Quad. Inferring from the press statements given by the Quad nations after their first meeting in 2017, Cmde. Singh stated that the absence of Freedom of Navigation (FoN) and overflight, respect for international law and maritime security from India’s statements reflected its differing take on the Quad. On the other hand, Japan’s press statement did not refer to connectivity which was mentioned by the other nations. He pointed out while aspects like free and open Indo-Pacific, nuclear proliferation, rules-based order and terrorism were jointly addressed by all four nations, the language of their statements on these topics differed due to which the meeting remained inconclusive in achieving a common mandate. Taking note of the Joint Statement from the next Quad meeting that took place June 2018, Cmde. Singh stated it was notable for its inclusion of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific discourse and this was also reflected by the Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Inferring from the successive joint statements, Cmde. Singh stated that it became clear the recurring focal points on development, connectivity, good governance, regional security, non-proliferation, shared democratic value and maritime cooperation have become the key features in the Quad meetings.  He highlighted that despite the convergence of Quad nations in these broad-based areas, India significantly differed in its language to denote its advocacy for a FoN, rules-based order and partnership with other nations in the region leading to differing interpretations on India’s expectations from the Quad.

Cmde. Singh brought out that despite the subtle differences in the language of the statements, the concerns began to converge reflecting the evolving consensus and expanding cooperation between the Quad nations leading to a common mandate taking shape. Assessing the first Joint Statement given by the Quad nations after their virtual summit on 12 March 2021, he stated that it denoted a concrete resolve of the Quad nations towards aspects like rules-based order, FoN, promotion of democratic values, countering coercion and the ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific. Cmde. Singh underscored that the area of cooperation became institutionalised into three core working groups on vaccine production, climate change and emerging technologies. The subsequent in-person meeting among the Quad leaders held on 24 September 2021 highlighted the core values based upon which the Quad was structured and reviewed the progress from the previous meetings especially in the areas of infrastructure partnership and information technology most notably the inclusion of Quad into Blue Dot Network which was earlier an exclusive initiative in cyberspace between the U.S, Japan and Australia. Cmde. Singh stated that it is important to note that the U.S Indo-Pacific Strategy harmonises with the various stakeholders of the region like India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, United Kingdom and France along with regional organisations like ASEAN and EU.

Decoding the comprehensive Joint Statement, Cmde. Singh analysed the first page of the statement which reiterated Quad’s commitment to support not only regional mechanisms but also the sub-regional mechanisms like Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) on issues pertaining to maritime security, HADR operations, cyber security, disinformation and terrorism. Assessing the second page of the statement Cmde. Singh pointed out that there has been extensive focus on the maritime domain as the Quad members have pledged to deepen their engagement in capacity-building and technical assistance to strengthen Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), ensuring FoN, protection of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and combating Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. Deciphering the third page Cmde. Singh brought out that Quad’s commitment to counter-terrorism has been underscored through the denouncement of the use of terrorist proxies for cross-border infiltration through the provision of safe havens and financial support. Also, the statement issued condemnations of the Mumbai and Pathankot terrorist attacks by reaffirming Quad’s support to UN Security Resolution 2593 that demanded the Afghan territory not be used for terrorism related activities. Cmde. Singh highlighted that the statement also conveyed cooperation in the cyber-security domain like countering disinformation, addressing the threat of ransomware and resolution to promote international peace and stability in cyberspace.  Bringing out other key resolutions of the joint statement, Cmde. Singh noted the Quad’s flagging of coercive economic policies and practices in the region.

Cmde. Singh pointed out that the statement sets out an agenda for future activities of Quad which includes the hosting of the Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Supply Chain Forum by Australia in mid-2022. Also, the U.S has pledged to promote exchange programmes for capacity building in the core focus areas of Quad and explore the feasibility of a track 1.5 dialogue between strategic thinkers of the four nations.  He also stated that through the joint statement the Quad has expressed grave concerns regarding Myanmar and North Korea. Summarising his presentation Cmde. Singh stated that institutionalising Quad 2.0 remains a work in progress but the process is progressively shaping more like an axiom than a conundrum.

During the panel discussion, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy traced the origins of the Quad back to when the first maritime security cooperation between India and the U.S. also known as the Kicklighter proposals took place during his tenure as the Deputy Secretary of Americas in 1992. He stated all the major developments of the next three decades leading up to the Quad’s current status including the Malabar Naval Exercise had their origins in the Kicklighter proposals. Describing the 2004 tsunami as essentially a cataclysmic maritime event that brought India, the U.S., Japan and Australia together for engaging in coordinated HADR operations in the region, the Director General attributed the foundation of Quad 1.0 to a maritime construct that retained its bilateral and trilateral significance even after the tsunami. This factor influenced the bilateral Malabar Exercise between India and the US which subsequently went on to include Japan in 2015 during the tenure of the Director General as the Indian Ambassador to Japan and subsequently, Australia also acquired the same traction by 2021. Pointing out to the differences between the evolution of Dialogue between Foreign Ministers and Leaders of the Quad, the Director General noted that the Leadership Dialogue has already issued two joint statements in March and September 2021, but on the other hand the Foreign Ministers Dialogue have so far avoided Joint Statements and instead opted for country specific statements. Henceforth, the Director General pointed out the fact that this is the first Joint Statement that has been issued at the Foreign Ministers level and referred to this as an indicator of considerable progress in the Quad.

The Director General stated that the previous Joint Statements issued at the leadership level have indicated a higher level of cooperation between the Quad nations attributed to the COVID pandemic and the development in the technological domain being the driving force behind their agenda. On the other hand, the Joint Statement issued at the Foreign Minister level laid focus on the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and Pathankot which was not mentioned at the leadership level that indicates considerable progress achieved by India and the Director General indicated the likelihood of its incorporation in the upcoming Joint Statement issued by the Quad Leaders. Also, he pointed out the newer element of the Joint Statement such as inclusion of Myanmar, Afghanistan, North Korea and countering disinformation. The Director General noted that extensive emphasis on countering disinformation is a subtle hint to China and Russia for their alleged use of social media for manipulation. He stated although the Quad cannot be considered as an “Asian Nato”, the nations within the Quad have bilateral defence partnerships with each other that enable them to further elevate their existing cooperation into a military grouping.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, stated that the higher convergences within the Quad that have been taking place over the last nine years are coinciding with the higher belligerence that is being exhibited by China. He stated although there is no direct correlation between the Malabar Exercise and the Quad, this projects a subtle hint of future military alliance. Touching upon the ASEAN centrality, the Deputy Director General pointed out the fact that the regional grouping has been so far reluctant to give any critical statement against China and questioned ASEAN’s support of the Quad. Brig. Satyavrat Pagay, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA enumerated dichotomies that the Quad creates for India in maintaining its strategic autonomy citing India’s neutral stand in the ongoing Ukraine Crisis, the acquisition of S-400 missiles from Russia and the military coup in Myanmar.

During the Q&A session responding to the Director General’s comments, Cmde. Singh stated that as the Foreign Ministers’ have met for the first time since the Quad summit the Joint Statement is likely to become a regular feature in all the future high level meetings taking place in the Quad. He stated although institution building in diplomatic engagement takes considerable time, the Quad has undergone this phase which will lead to greater institutionalisation of the grouping. Responding to the question posed by the Deputy Director General on ASEAN centrality, Cmde. Singh stated that every nation within the Quad has been individually engaging with the ASEAN members in order to win their confidence like India’s ‘Act East Policy’. Overall Quad must be able to persuade the ASEAN nations to partake in Quad’s vision for the Indo-Pacific region. Responding to another question on why Quad is being considered as a value based alignment rather than a security alliance, Cmde. Singh explained that a security alliance is identified by the alignment of interests supported by a treaty. But on the other hand, alignments are agreements based on good faith between nations. Responding to Brig. Pagay’s question on strategic autonomy, he stated that in international relations autonomy of the sovereign states is always constrained by existing global practices and groupings due to which no nation can claim to enjoy complete strategic autonomy. In case of India’s relationship with Russia, it has been evolving distinctly since the signing of Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971 and shall not diminish due to India’s association with the Quad. Responding to Col. Chadha’s question regarding China’s disdain towards the concept of Indo-Pacific, Cmde. Singh stated that judging from the statements of the Chinese Government and academia, China considers Quad and Indo-Pacific as two sides of the same coin which is designed for containing its influence in the region.  

Key Takeaways

  • The Joint Statement indicates growing strategic convergence among the four nations that has been evident from the evolving consensus and expanding areas of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region.
  • The Joint Statement has stressed on promoting the concept of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific taking into account the geostrategic significance of the Southeast Asian Nations in the region.
  • Issues of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific have been extensively covered in the Joint Statement.
  • The Quad nations have pledged for greater cooperation in countering disinformation.
  • Terrorism is a key issue that will become a regular feature in the future Joint Statements of all high level Quad meetings.

Report prepared by Dr R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA

Report of Monday Morning Webinar on “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Bhutan’s Economy” March 07, 2022 Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Opangmeren Jamir, Research Analyst, East-Asia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, spoke on the “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Bhutan’s Economy” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 7 March 2022. The webinar was chaired by Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Coordinator, Non-Traditional Security Centre. The Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) and other scholars of the Institute participated in the webinar.       

Executive Summary

The pandemic has brought many challenges in the world, especially for developing nations like Bhutan. Some challenges that emanate from the pandemic are in social, educational and healthcare sectors. Apart from these issues, the efforts Bhutan took to contain the pandemic are very satisfactory. The healthcare sector did well by vaccinating 65 per cent of Bhutan’s population. However, Bhutan has gone through an economic crunch which affected its other sectors.

Detailed Report

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, the moderator, made opening remarks on the topic and introduced the audience to the topic “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Bhutan’s Economy”. He mentioned that Bhutan is one of the few countries that managed the pandemic well. He also focused on the social, economic, education, and especially the healthcare system that Bhutan managed and how they vaccinated its population. Despite all this management, the economy was hit by the pandemic and major sectors were declining.

Dr. Opangmeren Jamir explained the topic in three parts. The first part focused on Bhutan’s economy before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the pandemic. The second part emphasised the steps undertaken by the Bhutanese government to sustain the economy during the pandemic, via policy measures, i.e., Mining Bill 2020 and the commercialisation of forests.  The last part of the presentation revolved around India-Bhutan cooperation with a special focus on hydropower projects.

The speaker highlighted that Bhutan is following the principle strategy of Gross National Happiness (GNH) to measure the well-being and collective happiness of its population. The strategy has helped to achieve many sustainable development goals. Once the pandemic set in, the economy of Bhutan was on the brink. According to the National Income Statistics 2021, the economic growth of Bhutan in 2020 was 10 per cent. Except for sectors like agriculture and electricity, sectors like mining, communication, tourism, construction, and transportation made significant contributions to the economy. The tourism sector had boomed from 2012 to 2019 which became the backbone of Bhutan’s economy. But in 2020, the tourist arrivals plummeted to 29,000 as compared to 315,599 in 2019. Data shows that in 2019-2020 there was a decline in tourists by 91 per cent and this negatively impacted the economy with a 92 per cent decrease in GDP as compared to the previous year. Additionally, the fiscal deficit of Bhutan in 2019-2020 was Nu 3.385 bn and reached Nu 11.139 bn in the financial year 2020-2021.

Despite all these issues, Bhutan became one of the most successful countries in dealing with the pandemic. According to the WHO report (2022), till 6 March 2022, the total number of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Bhutan were 13,846 with only 6 deaths and 90 per cent of the population was fully vaccinated. To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, the Bhutanese Government launched the social welfare scheme called National Resilience Fund to help sectors like tourism and agriculture.    

As per the Bhutanese constitution, Article 14(6) says “the government shall ensure that the cost of recurrent expenditure is met from internal resources of the country”.  The government attempted to generate revenue by exploring domestic resources via bringing mining bills and commercialisation of forests. As compared to the tourism and hydropower sector which contributed to strengthening Bhutan’s economy, mining was not much explored in earlier times. However, the Mining Bill was defeated in the National Assembly and National Council. The prime reason for the failure was the conflict of interests between the private and government sector. Members of the National Assembly were in favour of nationalisation of coal and other strategic mines while putting non-strategic mines under the private sector which was a violation of the Constitution of Bhutan. On the other hand, members of the National Council were in favour of the nationalisation of all mines that was also mandated by Article 1(12) of its Constitution, according to which all-natural resources should be under state rule.

The speaker highlighted the commercialisation of forests, another measure to generate revenue. However, there is high risk involved as deforestation leads to many climate issues. As Bhutan is the only carbon negative country, there is an onus on the decision-makers to balance economic development with ecological protection. Article 5(3) of Bhutan mandates the government shall ensure that “in order to conserve the country’s natural resources and to prevent degradation of the ecosystem, a minimum of 60 per cent of Bhutan’s total land shall be maintained under forest cover for all time.”   

The last section of the presentation focused on India-Bhutan cooperation on hydropower projects. India has been a consistent partner in providing development assistance to Bhutan. In the budget session of India for FY 2021-2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a development assistance of 7,100 crore rupees to countries in India’s neighbourhood, in which the share of Bhutan was maximum with 3,004 crore rupees.

One of the special features of India-Bhutan relations is the hydropower project, which dates back to 23 March 1974, the Chukha hydropower project. Later, agreements on the construction of two more power projects were concluded; the 60 MW Kurichhu and the 1020 MW Tala hydropower project. The 2006 agreement added another 5000 MW of electricity export from Bhutan to India. Later the 1200 MW Punatsangchu was unveiled.  

Hydropower export is a major component of Bhutan’s economy that contributed over 40 per cent to its national revenue and 25 per cent to its GDP. These projects have been identified as a win-win. Despite India’s economic development assistance, there is a negative perception in Bhutan about India, more during the economic shutdown. In the past several years, the performance of Bhutan’s hydropower projects has declined. The total debt (Domestic and External) in 2018-19 was Nu 184.174 including the share for hydropower debt of Nu 142.036 bn. The total debt increased in 2020-21 to Nu 234.389 with hydropower debt climbing to Nu 162.359 bn.

India’s actions were blamed for the hydropower debt situation in Bhutan as India reversed the financial model from 60:40 (60 per cent grants and 40 per cent loans) to a 30:70 model (30 per cent grants and 70 per cent commercial loans). Another major reason was fixing low electricity tariffs for the energy imported from Bhutan. The Bhutanese officials complained that India is getting cheaper electricity from Bhutan as compared to domestic market rates in India. Escalation of costs in the construction of hydropower projects is a major reason for increasing debt. Further, Bhutanese officials failed to undertake rigorous environmental impact assessments. In addition, the hydropower projects also failed to generate jobs for the local population as contracts are mostly held by the Indian construction companies.  

Comments and Questions

Following this extensive presentation, Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha first called upon Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) for his comments. Dr. Sinha later opened the floor to the participants.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi threw light on bilateral cooperation in the field of economy and security. He discussed the role of the Indian Army training the Bhutanese Army and the development of roads by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO). He also talked about Operation All Clear (2003) where 40 ULFA camps were uprooted in the region by the Indian Army.

Dr. Uttam K. Sinha commenting on the presentation highlighted Bhutan’s format of development and how social, cultural, and environmental costs are equally important. He also talked about the form of government in Bhutan since 2018 and its objectives regarding the demands of Bhutanese societies that are also reflected in its economic plans and its development goals.

Ms. Mayuri Bannerji asked about the sectors other than tourism that were hit by the pandemic and what foreign remittances contributed to Bhutan’s economy and how it impacted Bhutan’s economy.    

Mr. Prashant Singh asked about the interests of international, governmental, and non-governmental donors in Bhutan and any other demands within Bhutan to open up for foreign economic cooperation other than that with India, particularly China.   

Dr. Opangmeren Jamir gave extensive and insightful remarks and a detailed discussion was held on all questions and comments by participants. 

Report prepared by Mr. Mukesh Kumar, Intern, Centre for Defence Economics and Industry, Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), New Delhi

East Asia COVID-19, Bhutan
Virtual Talk on ‘Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cyber Security: Challenges and Opportunities’ February 28, 2022 Talk

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi organised a virtual discussion at which Dr. Prabhat Kumar, IRS (retd.) spoke on the ‘Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity: Challenges & Opportunities’, on 28th February 2022. The discussion was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

In the new age of technology, Artificial Intelligence has contributed to every aspect of business, industry, military, space and human life. However, with the advent of every technology, there exist challenges regarding its misuse, which has been a cause of concern for nations all over the world. The presentation by Dr. Kumar expanded on Artificial Intelligence and looked at solutions to the possible threats faced by its misuse and maximisation of its utility.

Detailed Report

Ambassador Chinoy made the opening remarks and introduced and thanked Dr. Prabhat Kumar for finding time to enlighten the audience on “Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity Challenges & Opportunities”. Ambassador Chinoy stated that technology is at an inflection point with the advancement in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning, Big Data, Internet of Things (IoT) etc. and that along with benefiting governments and businesses, it was also being misused by actors with malicious objectives. Ambassador Chinoy emphasised the need to look at this advancement in a holistic manner, i.e., how we gather & protect our data, who gathers & how? Ambassador Chinoy then invited Dr. Prabhat Kumar to share his views on the topic “Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity Challenges & Opportunities.”

Dr. Prabhat Kumar started by thanking Ambassador Chinoy & MP-IDSA for offering the opportunity to share his views on this topic. Dr. Prabhat shared that the word AI was coined in 1956, but it had matured as a technology only more recently. In the last year alone, as many as 42 AI and Big Data-focused start-ups had been set up. He added that apart from businesses, health and education, in the field of military modernisation too, where weaponry, tanks, missiles are loaded with modern technology, AI would change the nature of modern warfare. Dr. Prabhat added that space is another area where AI is advancing.

Coming to cybersecurity, Dr. Kumar noted that AI was being used in many verticals and had largely resulted in software being sold as a service (SaaS). He emphasised that cybersecurity is at the core of the Digital progress of our society. Dr. Prabhat then brought out the findings of the Spotlight Report 2022, which highlighted that there had been a 29% increase in the count of vulnerabilities associated with ransomware and a 25% increase in ransomware families.

Dr. Prabhat mentioned that cyber breaches have become an everyday phenomenon, with the post-COVID Work from Home (WFH) phenomenon having accelerated cyberattacks and created an environment of security distrust. Cybercriminals can penetrate 93% of company networks, according to the study conducted by Positive Technologies.

Recounting recent cyberattacks, Dr. Kumar noted that Data Wiping Malware in Ukraine had hit hundreds of computers, as per cybersecurity firm ESET. In addition, hackers backed by the Russian Government had breached the network of multiple US defence contractors and revealed sensitive information about US weapons-development communication infrastructure and the federal government.

It was also mentioned that Colonial Pipeline Company faced a cyber-attack where the ransom was demanded and paid. Ransomware malware locks down the system, encrypting data to extort money. APT29, a hacker group linked to Russia’s foreign intelligence organisation (SVR), inserted malicious code into SolarWinds software sometime in March 2020, which breached the computer network of the US Treasury and the Departments of State, Defence, Justice, Commerce, and Homeland Security, besides others. Similarly, in India, as per Check Point Research, companies witnessed 1803 cyber-attacks weekly per organisation on an average in 2021. This was a 25 per cent jump over 2020.

Dr. Prabhat then explained What is Hacking i.e., an act of compromising digital devices and networks through unauthorised access. Hacking refers to the misuse of devices like computers, smartphones, tablets, and networks to cause damage to or corrupt systems, gather information on users, steal data and documents, or disrupt data-related activity.

The different types of cyber attacks were explained:

Malware – Malicious software such as ransomware, designed to damage or control a computer system.

Phishing – Fake official emails (bank, PayPal) link to the fake website, where victims log in, giving up their passwords.

Man-in-the-Middle Attacks – Hackers inserted themselves between your computer and the webserver.

DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) - a Network of computers overload a server with data, shutting it down.

Cross-Site Scripting – Injects malicious code into a website that targets the visitor’s browser.

SQL Injection Attack – Corrupts data to make a server divulge data such as credit cards numbers and usernames. 

Dr. Prabhat provided the major sources of cybersecurity threats:

  • Nation States
  • Criminal Groups
  • Hackers
  • Terrorist Groups
  • Corporate Spies
  • Malicious insiders
  • Hacktivists

Security cyber infrastructure and resources which could be compromised included:

  • Databases
  • End Points
  • Mobile Apps
  • Networks
  • Servers
  • Storage
  • Web Apps
  • Middleware
  • Thick Client Application
  • Cloud
  • On premise hosted products
  • Miscellaneous

AI is used in different technologies such as:

  • Machine learning
  • Speech
  • Vision
  • Language Processing
  • Expert systems
  • Planning and optimization
  • Robotics

Dr. Prabhat then explained how AI is used both by hackers and defenders who use it to solve complex problems and perform high-level computations. It increases accuracy as it learns from experiences, uses machine learning to reason, recognises images, understands language and nuances, and create perspectives.

Dr. Prabhat emphasised that algorithm is at the core of AI. He added that the most powerful algorithm is used in Tik Tok App as it takes care of the user requirements and makes instant recommendations. Dr. Prabhat noted that the battle between Hackers and Defenders is of algorithm, as the more complex the algorithm, the more powerful malicious software or solutions can be designed. AI is used to launch faster, stealthier and sophisticated hyper-targeted attacks on the scale. Hackers test and improve their malware to make it resistant to AI-based security tools. AI can be used to choose the timing of attack when high traffic volumes are high and more intelligent attacks that self-propagate over a system or network. Cyber actors use AI-enabled malware programs to learn the computation environment of an organisation automatically, update communication protocols and pinpoint when and where the system is least protected. 

Dr. Prabhat added that malware algorithms need the training to know what normal looks like on a network and that AI can sift through a large number of incidents to identify and take corrective measures instantly against any impending attack. Also, AI enables the setting up of self-configuring networks, which prowls through every computer, smartphone, other devices, etc., to detect anomalous activity from identifying malware in an email attachment, to a disgruntled employee downloading sensitive files. AI improves malware detection rates using a baseline of cyber intelligence data. AI cybersecurity systems can learn from indicators of compromise and may be able to match the characteristics of small clues even if they are scattered throughout the network.

Dr. Kumar also elaborated on AI-enabled solutions, which were utilising anomaly detection, keyword matching, and monitoring statistics.

  • They detected all types of networks or system intrusion and could also analyse billions of file samples, appraise files for threats, determine whether or not a threat exists and quarantine infected files.
  • AI could be used to predict the presence of automated bot traffic and automatically block the traffic before it becomes dangerous.
  • Phishing emails could be identified by using AI and ML capabilities to perform an in-depth inspection of links.
  • AI systems could detect vulnerabilities (software bugs) and perform response actions like self-patching. This would strengthen system security by providing network resilience, prevention and protection against cyber threats.

New AI applications are emerging in Intent-Based Network Security (IBNS) on AI platforms for cyber defence or immune computer systems which have the ability to self-adapt. In addition, research is required in countering complex cyber threats, malware reverse engineering and projection to enhance cyber situation awareness. He gave examples of Crowdstrike and DarkTrace software which used AI effectively to monitor cyber threats, leading to huge valuations for the parent companies. The CIA, MIS, NSA and GCHQ were among its clients.

On having an effective strategy against cyber attacks Dr. Prabhat made the following points:

  • Country needs a comprehensive national approach and should start by re-examining traditional notions of trust. Zero trust is the idea that no untested technology should ever be trusted or barred without verification.
  • Cybersecurity must be embedded in a technology’s development phase itself.
  • Operators must disclose all of the critical components they deploy in their networks.
  • Equipment sellers must spell out in detail how they will ensure that their products cannot be used for sabotage, espionage, or terrorism, and failure to meet legally mandated thresholds must invite fine, ban or shutting down of the company.

Dr. Prabhat ended his presentation with several pointers on safeguarding from cyber threats: 

  • Update Systems and Software
  • Backup Data
  • Initiate Phishing Simulations
  • Secure websites with HTTPS
  • Build a Cyber Incident Response Plan
  • Maintain Compliance
  • Train Employees
  • Create an Insider Threat awareness program

Discussion, Comments and Questions

  • Ambassador Chinoy thanked Dr. Prabhat for a comprehensive presentation and added that though India is making great strides in the IT sector, no parallel progress can be seen in the AI space. Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that more technologically advanced tanks of Pakistan were outsmarted by our more conventional tanks in the 1965 war and questioned whether too much of AI without adequate preparation as in the military can also be a burden in space? He also asked Whether AI would be able to take over command of our military weapons like fighter jets or divert missiles or smart bombs, which have become so automated.
  • Dr. Ajey Lele questioned whether these technologies, including AI, would become redundant in the coming era, and should we focus more on Quantum technologies, particularly on Quantum Cryptography?
  • Dr. Cherian questioned how mature is AI in cybersecurity, and do AI-based solutions increase or decrease cybersecurity costs?
  • Dr. Sanur Sharma questioned how well is India’s National Strategy on AI that was released recently in line with India’s cybersecurity strategy?
  • Ms. Krutika Patil questioned the attribution of AI in cyber-attacks and what kind of data, infrastructure and model is required for such cyber-attacks.
  • Maj. Gen.Bipin Bakshi (Retd.)  queried whether we have an agency that is working on AI in India, would AI be able to handle a quantum attack, and can AI be used to enhance the effectiveness of our military weapons?
  • Mr. Sihag queried that as India imports so much hardware such as semi-conductors, is there a possibility of them being compromised by the exporting nation and is there a solution to this issue, and can AI be used to mitigate it?
  • Mr. Jayant Mishra stated that rapid digitalisation coupled with AI had come a long way. It has changed the entire architecture of communications, information keeping, surveillance, mapping, and every aspect of human behaviour, and all of this has thrown significant challenges.
  • Group Captain Karunakaran questioned whether banks have adequate AI in place for cybersecurity as most of the transactions had gone online.

Dr. Prabhat then came forward to answer the queries raised by the participants of the discussion.

Firstly, Dr. Prabhat addressed the query of Ambassador Chinoy regarding India’s history in software and how it is placed in AI technology. Dr. Prabhat stated that India made great progress till 2006 in technology, but India somewhere got left behind in AI till 2015-16 while China took off with the rise of Alibaba, Tencent and a host of the small, medium, larger enterprises. As of now, we have again increased pace and have a great growth rate in start-ups that rely on AI & data analytics. Funds have been earmarked & Institutes have been set up in collaboration with TCS & IIS in AI & quantum computing. Regarding the military application of AI, some efforts are going on to keep it away from being used in situations where human lives may be endangered. Dr. Prabhat then answered the query of Dr. Ajey Lele regarding quantum technologies that it is still in its nascent stage, and there is no stable environment to use it in as of yet. In relation to cryptography applications & their encryption, it would be a totally new domain of technology. With regard to the query of Dr. Cherian, Dr. Prabhat replied that AI is not perfect as both false positives and false negatives are depending upon the algorithm. Regarding the cost, it would surely go up, but the gains would be more in the long term. While replying to Dr. Sanur Sharma, he stated that as of now, AI had not been deployed on a large scale in the military; however, advanced tanks, UAVs and robots have been used. Robots have been used by the US in the Afghan war, which surely saved a lot of manpower and they performed complex and dangerous tasks. India is also using AI in its missile technology to track the target after being deployed. Replying to Ms. Krutika Patil, Dr. Prabhat agreed that costs will increase, and a lot of data is required and robust infrastructure. With regard to the query of Mr. Sihag relating to the vulnerability of semi-conductors Dr. Prabhat stated that semi-conductors can be manipulated and that it is necessary to set up large manufacturing units in India to diversify the supply chain. Dr. Prabhat while mentioning the concerns of Mr. Jayant Mishra stated that through the advent of technology, power is being centralised and in the hands of a few.

The event concluded with Dr. Sanur Sharma delivering the Vote of Thanks.

Report prepared by Ms. Richa Tokas, Research Intern, Defence Economy &Industry, MP-IDSA.

North America & Strategic Technologies Cyber Security, Artificial Intelligence

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