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Role of Semiconductors in National Security September 26, 2022 1115 hrs Other

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) held a seminar on "Role of Semiconductors in National Security” on 26 September 2022 from 1115 hrs - 1330 hrs. Lt. Col. Akshat Upadhyay, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, spoke briefly about the importance of the topic and introduced the Speakers. The Opening Address was delivered by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General of MP-IDSA. The Panellists were Ms. Vrinda Kapoor, CEO 3rditech; Col. Anurag Awasthi (Retd.), Vice President, Indian Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA); Col. H.S. Sandhu, HQ Directorate General Information Systems (DGIS); Mr. Anshuman Tripathi, Member, National Security Advisory Board (NSAB); and Mr. Prashant Kumar, Scientist E, Ministry of Electronics and IT (MeitY). The Vote of Thanks was delivered by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

The world is now aware of the realities of the semiconductor supply chain owing to the Covid-19 lockdown, Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taiwan crisis, making India's own growth highly vulnerable to disruptions in the semiconductor supply chains. India has done well in semiconductor design but more work is required in manufacturing, especially fabrication and assembly. The Indian Armed Forces must be aware of the ground reality while recognising Atmanirbhar Bharat. A vision of "technology should be developed for the sake of technology" is required, which will later translate into scalable and viable electronics products.

The dual-purpose nature of semiconductor products ensures that they will always be useful for military purposes. Lessons can be drawn from China and its Military Civil Fusion ecosystem (MCF) in semiconductor research and manufacturing, where the military has both aided research and served as the first customer for semiconductor companies. India too has taken steps in the right direction. The Indian Government's semiconductor policy in 2021 is robust and well throughout. Furthermore, the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme will gain significant traction and generate domestic demand for electronic products. The Public- Private Partnership (PPP) model should also consider some ground realities regarding the future of semiconductor innovation, where silicon may be replaced with gallium nitrate (GaN) in the future.

In terms of challenges in semiconductor supply chains, since no single country dominates all the stages of semiconductor manufacturing, geopolitical crises can put strain on supply chains. In terms of solutions for India, intellectual property on semiconductor research is primarily owned by the US and Europe. As a result, India must collaborate and form partnerships with these countries. Moreover, because Taiwan is under threat and the US is focusing on Taiwan, India must collaborate with South Korea due to its semiconductor capabilities rather than exclusively with Taiwan.

The Indian Army relies on semiconductors for sensors (radar, telemetry, Electronic Warfare (EW)), communication systems (Combat Net Radio, 5G systems), computing, aviation and space, weapons platforms, cyber weapons, and autonomous systems. However, assessing transparency and hardware competence for military-based electronics products, which is currently lacking, is critical.

India is one of the top countries in terms of publicly announced incentives for fabs. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) is also focusing on qualified semiconductor manpower in order to make India the semiconductor manpower capital. The roadmap for skilling and empowerment is already being developed under MeitY's leadership. Furthermore, once India has established 3-4 fabs, supply chain and ecosystem issues will be resolved considerably. No country can be completely self-sufficient in terms of its electronic needs because all countries have dependencies. As a result, India should develop its own value proposition and participate in the global value chain so that, even if it is sanctioned, it will have some levers to pull to deter such sanctions. 

Monday Morning Meeting on Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh’s Visit to Egypt: Significance for India-Africa Defence Cooperation September 26, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

At the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 September 2022, Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA, spoke on the topic “Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh’s Visit to Egypt: Significance for India-Africa Defence Cooperation”. The session was moderated by Col. Manish Rana, SM, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, all MP-IDSA scholars and interns attended and participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

The meeting brought out the trajectory and various dimensions of the defence cooperation between India and Egypt. It highlighted the details and underscored the significance and underlying implications of Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh’s visit to Egypt on India-Africa Defence Cooperation. It was assessed that the three strands of India’s increasing defence cooperation with Africa include – signing of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on defence cooperation, increase in high-level defence-related visits and the institutionalisation of India-Africa defence cooperation in the form of the India-Africa Defence Dialogue (IADD). The session also drew attention to the various factors underlying Africa’s perception of India as a trusted defence partner. Africa’s importance in India’s Foreign Policy, the principles guiding India’s engagement with Africa and other aspects were also discussed in detail.

Detailed Report

The Moderater, Col. Manish Rana, began the session with his introductory remarks which highlighted India’s renewed focus on Africa and the role of China factor in India-Africa ties. He reflected on the earlier visits of the RM to African countries like Mozambique and ministerial high-level discussions with countries like Tanzania. He invited the speaker to share her insights on the recent visit of the RM to Egypt from 18-20 September 2022, factors driving the same and its significance for India-Africa defence cooperation.

The Speaker, Ms. Ruchita Beri, at the outset underscored that the RM’s visit to Egypt opened new avenues for defence cooperation not only with Egypt but also for India’s growing defence ties with other African nations. Her talk focused on the significance of Egypt for India, the importance of the MoU on furthering defence cooperation signed during the RM’s visit and the salience of his visit to India-Africa defence cooperation. Stating that historical and economic ties have fostered a political and strategic relationship between India and Egypt, she shed light on their cooperation in multilateral fora like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and others.

Ms. Beri explained that defence cooperation between the two countries was not new and mentioned India’s training of Egyptian pilots, the joint venture with Egypt for manufacturing defence equipment and the Joint Defence Committee (JDC) set up in 2006 which has met six times. She assessed that the RM’s visit and the MoU signifies an increase in bilateral ties which has largely focused on the defence sector. She mentioned the joint tactical exercise ‘Desert Warrior’ held in October 2021, the visit of Indian defence companies to Egypt’s Defence Expo in 2021, the deployment of INS Kochi to Red Sea and its visit to Egyptian ports, and the visit of Egypt’s Air Force Chief to India in July 2022. She stated that the MoU primarily focused on defence indigenisation in the backdrop of “Make in India” and Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. She also shed light on Egypt’s efforts in strengthening its ties with India such as the release of a postage stamp commemorating 75 years of the bilateral relationship.

The Speaker opined that there were three trends to the increasing defence cooperation between India and Africa. Firstly, the MoU signed with Egypt was the latest among many already signed with other African countries like the Indian Ocean littorals, Nigeria, Botswana and others. Second, the visit of the RM to Egypt is against the backdrop of an increase in defence-focused visits such as deputy National Security Advisor (NSA)’s visit to Tanzania and Mozambique. Third, it precedes the upcoming IADD scheduled for 18-22 October 2022 which seeks to build on existing partnerships. Stating that the IADD is expected to give a fillip to defence exports, she opined that although this could be true of the large countries, many African nations cannot afford to purchase these defence equipment and rely on the Lines of Credit (LOCs) provided by India.

Ms. Beri decoded the various factors underlying Africa’s perception of India as a trustworthy defence partner. These include common security challenges like terrorism, positive developments like the economic transformation of Africa, India’s commitment to the same which is evident in the fact that 40 per cent of India’s development assistance is for the African region and in India’s principles like Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. Another factor is the increase in Africa’s defence cooperation with other countries like Russia which is an important defence partner of the continent and China’s increasing visibility in the security sector seen in the 2021 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) which focused on defence cooperation with African countries. The Speaker concluded by reiterating the importance of Africa in India’s Foreign Policy and the ten guiding principles of India’s engagement with Africa envisaged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. She underscored that the increase in high-level visits would concretise India-Africa defence cooperation which is focused on empowering African countries.

Complimenting the Speaker’s talk, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy shared his insights on the topic. He observed that the roughly same trade volume of India and the African continent is a reflection of how geography mirrors one another on both sides of the shared oceanic space in terms of trade. While China has a huge trade presence in Africa, the US and its western allies have far greater investments in Africa. Against this backdrop, he assessed that India could do both – increase its trade with Africa as well as improve its investment presence in technology and space. Noting the good relations shared between India and Egypt, he reflected on their defence cooperation which began in the 1960s with a joint venture for developing the Helwan HA-300 combat jets. Stating that Egypt is the third largest importer of arms, he observed that it relies largely on US assistance for purchasing defence equipment and suggested that India could focus on where to fit in. Ambassador Chinoy also drew attention to the need for India to focus on an ‘all-of-government’ approach to increase its speed and scale of defence production capacity in order to become a large defence exporter.

In his remarks, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted the issues on the sustainability of transfer of defence hardware without payment (preference for grants over LOCs) and the issue of maintenance of defence equipment. He underscored the need for India to plan mechanisms and funding for long-term support to some African countries for maintenance of the defence equipment they purchased from India. He also mentioned the opportunity for India to explore cooperation with third countries like France in Francophone Africa. He reiterated the issue of maintenance responsibility in India’s defence exports to African countries.

The session concluded with a lively Q/A session and discussion which shed light on important dimensions like the lack of and judicious use of capital in local supply chains, Egypt’s strategic priorities that drive its defence policy, cyber security cooperation between India and Africa and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in the context of energy security cooperation and Africa’s Agenda 2063.

The report has been prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.

Talk by Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha on Naval Dimensions of Security in the Indo-Pacific September 23, 2022 1430 hrs Talk

A talk on “Naval Dimensions of Security in the Indo-Pacific” was given by MP-IDSA Executive Council Member, Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha (Retd.) on 23 September 2022. It was attended by the Director-General MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director-General MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, and MP-IDSA scholars.

Executive Summary

The Indo-Pacific is an emerging construct characterised by a dynamic geopolitical environment. India has laid stress on the maritime domain for its foreign policy to be more suited to the evolving balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Three factors that shape India’s security are ability to exercise influence beyond its shores, sustaining maritime influence, and integrating the Indian economy with economies of the neighbourhood. New Delhi may carefully observe the fast-changing environment in the region and develop its defences accordingly. The development of domestic industry, especially in defence, will be important for India to sustain its influence in the region, and also keep increasing external influence at bay.

Detailed Report

The Director General, Ambasssador Sujan R. Chinoy introduced the Speaker by remarking on his illustrious career within the armed forces, which led to developing an in-depth understanding of India’s security affairs. He observed that the Indo-Pacific is a new, emerging, and more representative conceptual framework that reflects new realities. It encompasses a vast region where countries interact closely on areas like trade, technology, human resources etc. Vice Admiral Sinha commenced his remarks by pointing out the composition of the Indo-Pacific, such as the colonial past of its nations, diverse social and political systems, varying levels of economic development, uneven distribution of natural resources, and close-knit geography. The region facilitates large amount of trade and some of the most important global choke points are also present in the Indo-Pacific.

He highlighted the traditional security threats in the region such as territorial conflict among nations, and non-traditional security threats like natural disasters and climate change. Terrorism, religious extremism, Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and trade in narcotics are also some formidable challenges faced by Indo-Pacific nations. The small island states in the region are more vulnerable due to rising sea levels and limited capacities to tackle such challenges. These threats are transnational, affecting multiple nations and necessitate a cooperative arrangement to fight collectively. While mentioning three factors that shape India’s security, Vice Admiral Sinha said that Indian influence may go beyond its own shores. Secondly, New Delhi shall be able to sustain the maritime influence in the region to avoid becoming a lesser power in its own neighbourhood, and thirdly, regional integration of economies in South Asia will be extremely vital for regional security. India is already the preferred security partner for countries in South Asia, and thus stands to be affected by instability in the region. In the Indian Ocean as well, India shall continue to build close relationships in vital areas, such as security and economy, to encourage greater regional integration and goodwill.   

The role of Quad in sustaining a rules-based order and freedom of the seas in Indo-Pacific was discussed. Quad’s new maritime transparency initiative will be crucial in identifying the position of suspicious vessels in the sea and enhance security coordination among the Indo-Pacific partners. Other minilaterals like AUKUS are expected to only strengthen the security architecture of the region. It was agreed that China’s foray into the Pacific Islands was alarming, particularly for the US and allies. Given its close relationship with its Quad partners, disturbances in the Pacific will also affect India. For better cooperation with South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, India can capitalise on its renowned Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief capacities and operations.

On a query about India’s acquisition of latest weapons, Vice Admiral Sinha opined that while updating to the latest warfare technology is essential, India needs to address its indigenous defence manufacturing issues to sustain a large security ecosystem domestically and regionally. China’s cooperation with Pakistan was seen as a considerable threat to India’s security, and therefore appropriate defences may be developed in that regard. Other powers in the continental theatre may be partnering amongst themselves but since India maintains good relations with most of its neighbours, it has less reasons to worry. However, all developments may be carefully assessed. He also commented on India’s position vis-à-vis the AUKUS partnership. Although it had evoked much surprise at the time of announcement, AUKUS may be seen as congruent to India’s interests. Australia and the US have a strong working relationship in the defence and security sector. India stands to benefit from this relationship even by being associated with them under the Quad platform. Greater synergy will allow sufficient trust and credibility for technology transfer and even collaboration in advanced military technologies.

The session was concluded and was in agreement of strengthening India’s partnership with like-minded nations, such as fellow Quad members, to ensure a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. India has a favourable geography as it is centrally located in the Indian Ocean. The significance of maritime security for India’s foreign policy and defence was underscored in the discussion. The Director General delivered closing remarks and thanked the Speaker for his insights.

The report was prepared by Mr. Akash Sahu, Research Analyst, Centre for Southeast Asia and Oceania, MP-DSA.

Talk on "Research and Technology: Automating the Process" by Ms. Tannu Sharma September 21, 2022 1030 to 1300 hrs Talk

A talk by Ms. Tannu Sharma, Assistant Professor, Department of English, Janki Devi Memorial College, on "Research and Technology: Automating the Process", is scheduled to be held on 21 September 2022 at 10:30 AM in Seminar Hall 1.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Research Fellow and Coordinator, Non-Traditional Security Centre, will moderate the discussion.

All Research Analysts, Research Assistants (attached to various projects) and Interns are expected to attend.

Seminar on Role of Semiconductors in National Security September 26, 2022 1115 hrs Other

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) is organising a Seminar on "Role of Semiconductors in National Security” on Monday, 26 September 2022.

The Seminar will be held from 1115 hrs – 1300 hrs and the venue is Room No. 005, Ground Floor, MP-IDSA.

Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA will deliver the opening address.

Interaction with Ambassador of India to the People’s Republic of China, Shri Pradeep Rawat September 20, 2022 1600 hrs Other

MP-IDSA is organising an interaction with Ambassador of India to the People’s Republic of China, Shri Pradeep Rawat today at 1600 hours in the Boardroom.

Director General, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Amb Sujan R. Chinoy will chair the interaction.

Talk by Ambassador Naor Gilon, Ambassador of Israel to India September 21, 2022 Talk

Executive Summary

The interactive discussion primarily centred around the following issues: India-Israel bilateral relations, critical areas of cooperation between the two countries, regional geopolitics in West Asia, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Abraham Accords and the IU2U (India-Israel-UAE-USA). Furthermore, Iran’s role in West Asia, differences in how India and Israel perceive it, the Make in India initiative, and the relationship that Israel shares with Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, China, the USA and Africa were also discussed. 

Detailed Report

A delegation led by Mr. Naor Gilon, Ambassador of Israel to India, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on September 21, 2022, for an interaction with the scholars. Ambassador Gilon was accompanied by Mr. Ohad Nakash Kaynar, Deputy Chief of Mission of the Israeli Embassy, Ms. Hagar Spiro-Tal, Political Advisor, and Ms. Sameeksha Chouhan, Assistant, Political Affairs, Embassy of Israel, New Delhi.

The interaction started with the Director General’s introductory remarks where he recalled his visit to Israel in 2019. He highlighted the significance of the India-Israel bilateral relationship and how it has gathered strength in recent years. He underlined how the key elements of the multifaceted relationship between India and Israel, have moved from cooperation in agricultural to high-tech and defence sectors. Finally, he called for the bilateral ties to be further enhanced before inviting Amb. Gilon to deliver his remarks.

Amb. Gilon thanked Amb. Chinoy for hosting him and his colleagues. He began his remarks by reflecting on the unique and special sentiments each Indian has expressed towards Israel. He further emphasised that ties between the two countries reached new heights after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel in 2017, which saw India de-hyphenating the Israel-Palestine issue.

He stated that Iran is the biggest destabiliser in the region. Iran has links with several non-state organisations in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. He also accused Iran of supporting terrorism in the region and made a mention of Iran’s support for ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. Israel perceives Iran’s destabilising role in the region through its alliance with Shia and Sunni proxy groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Houthis. He expressed Israeli reservations about the revival of the JCPOA agreement as it would give financial advantages to Iran as the sanctions would be lifted after the agreement is reached.   

He further stated that Israel’s normalisation of relationship with the Arab countries, known as the “Abraham Accords”, is a game changer in the region’s politics and security. He stated that although the Gulf countries have maintained secret relations with Israel for many years, they have now come out in the open to normalise their relationship. He mentioned that Israel has helped the Gulf countries over many issues in the past, the most prominent being Israeli technology used in desalination projects in the Gulf. Underscoring the gradual normalisation of the relationship between Israel and the Gulf countries, Amb. Gilon stated that Iran has acted as an adhesive in bringing them together as the Gulf countries realise that Israel is the biggest fighter against Iran.

On the other hand, he explained that India and Israel’s differing perceptions of Iran have not impacted their strategic bilateral ties. He stated that India-Israel bilateral relations are growing stronger and stronger. The I2U2 summit is an example of a broader and progressive state of mind visible among participating countries. He argued that the I2U2 has the potential to change the situation in West Asia as the UAE is close to both India and Israel.

The following key points emerged from the floor during the discussion:

  • There is a correlation between the enhancement of Israel’s credibility and Iran’s reduced ability to overtly act against it in forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Today, according to Israeli authorities, Iran considers both high and low-profile Israeli citizens as legitimate targets.
  • There is no scope for improvement in Israel-Pakistan ties in the foreseeable future. There is potential for India and Israel to collectively take the question of the role played by the deep state in Pakistan and its support for Islamist groups. Israel has deep-seated concerns about Iran following in Pakistan’s footsteps and adopting nuclear proliferation.
  • In 1984, India's elite commando counter-terrorism unit, the National Security Guard, was initially raised and was provided military training by Israeli forces. It has evolved with the establishment of the Joint Steering Committee, whose first meeting was held in 2014.
  • Iran’s destabilising role and fear regarding the ascendency of Shia extremism and radicalisation have spurred Gulf countries and Israel to normalise diplomatic ties. Normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be a long and gradual process, despite the transformative change the Kingdom is undergoing due to the change in leadership. This is because of the royal family’s symbolic role in the Islamic world.
  • Israel faces security threats due to the Palestinian Authority’s inability to maintain absolute control over cities under its jurisdiction and rising tensions among the people. On the other hand, the threats posed by Hezbollah have been contained for the moment. Nevertheless, Israel has made it clear that any provocation on its part would mean a war against Lebanon and not merely against the organisation since it is, de facto, part of the Lebanese government. Incidentally, Hezbollah is trying to create an alternative front against Israel in Syria.
  • There is significant support within Israel to cooperate with India in its Make in India initiative. Any prospects for cooperation between India and Israel in the field of innovation will depend on the scope of government involvement on both ends and requisite financial investments in appropriate projects. Israel can provide India advisory and technological integration-based support to advance its quest for innovation in water irrigation systems.
  • Despite the ebbs and flows in Turkey’s approach, it has never disrupted the oil flows into Israel via the pipelines that are laid across the country.
  • Israel does not supply any military equipment to China. However, the export of semiconductors cannot be included in this explanation since they also have civilian use.
  • Africa has played a critically important role for Israel, mainly during the 1950s and due to widespread African immigration in the past. There is huge economic potential for Israel in Africa. There are excellent prospects for Israel and India to cooperate across Africa and Sri Lanka.

The session concluded with the Director General’s concluding remarks and exchanging mementoes and books with the Israeli delegation.

This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre.

Monday Morning Meeting on "India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Taking Stock of the Summit in Samarkand” September 15, 2022 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Mr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will speak on "India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Taking Stock of the Summit in Samarkand” at the Monday Morning Meeting which will be held on 19 September 2022 at 10 AM. The venue is Auditorium, Second Floor.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will be the moderator.

Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, will be the rapporteur.

MP-IDSA and COMEXI organised a virtual Bilateral Dialogue on India-Mexico Relations in the Contemporary Era August 22, 2022 Bilateral

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), India and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), Mexico held their first Virtual Bilateral Dialogue on 22 August 2022, on the theme “India-Mexico Relations in the Contemporary Era”. In the inaugural session, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and Dr. Sergio Alcocer, President, COMEXI, delivered the opening remarks, while the special remarks for the dialogue were delivered by Ambassador Pankaj Sharma, Ambassador of India to Mexico, and Ambassador Federico Salas Lotfe, Ambassador of Mexico to India. Session I titled “Regional Developments and Bilateral Relations” was chaired by Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and Former Ambassador to Mexico. Dr. Ashok Behuria and Prof. Guadalupe González Chávez shared their thoughts on the regional developments in South Asia and Latin America respectively while Ms. Ruchita Beri and Ambassador Nathan Wolf spoke on India-Mexico Bilateral Relations.  Mr. Vladimir Vázquez Hernández, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Mexico in Honduras, chaired Session II on “Emerging Areas of Cooperation”. While Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.) and Mr. Fausto Carbajal Glass spoke on India-Mexico security cooperation, Dr. Rajeesh Kumar and Ms. Irma Gómez Cavazos spoke on India-Mexico multilateral cooperation. In the closing session, concluding remarks were given by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA on behalf of MP-IDSA and Mr. Vladimir Vázquez Hernández, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Mexico in Honduras on behalf of COMEXI. The event was livestreamed on You Tube and was attended on the virtual platform by all scholars and interns of MP-IDSA, members of COMEXI, invitees from the Embassy of India in Mexico and Embassy of Mexico in India.

Executive Summary

The dialogue underscored the importance of India-Mexico bilateral relationships and proposed new areas of cooperation that can be further explored to strengthen their ties. Session I discussed India-Mexico bilateral relations and regional developments. It shed light on regional developments in South Asia like India’s efforts to help integrate and promote prosperity in its neighbourhood, the new regime in Kabul and its ripple effects on the region, especially Pakistan; and the evolving situation in Latin American and Caribbean nations, a historical analysis of the developments and challenges of the region juxtaposed with the current changes in the region. The session also drew attention to India-Mexico bilateral relations and the shared Indo-Mexican interest in the African continent, underlined new areas of cooperation in sectors like energy, agriculture and food processing, looking at Mexico as a gateway to Latin America and, highlighted the need for Mexico and India to unite in dealing with the challenges facing the world.  It was assessed that the climate crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resultant supply chain crisis and their consequences have permanently altered the socio-economic structures within South Asia and Latin America.

The prospects for defence and security cooperation between India and Mexico, as well as multilateral cooperation, were both discussed during the second session of the meeting. The discussion on defence and security cooperation centered on the possibilities for India-Mexico security partnership in space, defence manufacturing, terrorism, among others. In light of the fact that both nations are non-permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), the discussion also centered on expanding multilateral cooperation between the two.

Detailed Report

Inaugural Session

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and former Indian Ambassador to Mexico launched the first MP-IDSA – COMEXI Virtual Bilateral Dialogue, extending his warm welcome to the panellists for the inaugural session, other attendees, and participants for the evening. Furthermore, he expressed his hope to have a physical meeting in the foreseeable future while expressing his gratitude to Ambassador Federico Salas Lotfe and Ambassador Pankaj Sharma for agreeing to deliver the special remarks. Ambassador Chinoy as part of his opening remarks noted the centuries-old ties between India and Mexico, including the links between Mayans and South India and the flouring trade Mexico has shared with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. He underlined how India-Mexico ties are representative of mutual understanding, all-around cooperation, high-level meetings, and privileged partnerships that have provided an impetus to bilateral cooperation in the contemporary era. Moreover, the recent exchange of visits by the foreign ministers and sixth round of Foreign Office Consultations have further consolidated bilateral ties. Over the years, new avenues of cooperation between Mexico and India have emerged in crop monitoring, drought assessments, and capacity building between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and Agencia Espacial Mexicana (Mexican Space Agency).He further touched on emerging geopolitical developments and conflicts and, India and Mexico’s role as emerging or middle-powers in the rapidly-evolving world order. He also underscored how the geographical distance between the two countries does not act as an impediment, as this virtual dialogue demonstrates. On the other hand, the Ambassador, highlighting India and Mexico’s role as non-permanent members of the UNSC and in the G20, asserted how there is scope for new convergences in areas such as climate change, renewable energy, and terrorism. In the foreseeable future, India must deepen trade ties with Mexico, including in the Pacific alliance. Furthermore, he shed light on their mutual interests in Africa and how possibilities of joint projects in selective countries should be explored while establishing frequent dialogues on issues such as border management, particularly drugs and illegal arms crossing. The speaker also flagged how another area of cooperation is India’s defence sector, open to foreign investment, and Mexico’s strengths in areas such as Aerospace are of particular interest. Additionally, he mentioned how defence and naval cooperation are other areas to be explored and bolstered. Afterwards, he gave the floor to Dr. Alcocer. Dr. Sergio Alcocer, President, COMEXI, expressed his gratitude to his fellow panellists and spoke about the fruitful relationship between Mexico and India, various similarities, and room for opportunity between the two countries. He also referred to these evolving ties amid great power competition and the Ukraine conflict. He further highlighted think tanks’ role in building peace and prosperity between nations and how science, education, and technology are avenues for increased cooperation between India and Mexico. On the other hand, the speaker spoke about how regular contact should be maintained between the two countries and appreciated the quality of engineers and scientists based in India and the technological advances it has made in areas such as biotechnology and cognitive science. He also mentioned that water management is another area of cooperation, mainly because Mexico has been experiencing one of the worst droughts in the past years. His country also has a substantive interest in engaging in defence exchanges and cooperation. After thanking him for his thoughtful remarks, Ambassador Chinoy welcomed Ambassadors Sharma and Ambassador Lotfe to deliver their special remarks for the evening and expressed his gratitude for their support in conducting this bilateral dialogue.

Ambassador Pankaj Sharma, Ambassador of India to Mexico, expressed his gratitude to those present and MP-IDSA and COMEXI for conducting this webinar. He remarked how such events help bridge the gap in understanding, analysing, reviewing the bilateral relationship, and charting the path forward. He underlined how both countries are on a similar development path and share a unified vision based on common principles. Additionally, there is a mutual resolve to elevate the privileged partnership to a strategic partnership, and its roadmap was laid during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Mexico in 2016. The speaker pointed out how India and Mexico have robust economies and are positioned to play important roles in their respective neighbourhoods. On the other hand, business and investments are critical aspects of this bilateral relationship, and in 2021, India emerged as one of Mexico’s top 10 trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching $10.1 billion.

Moreover, he spoke about how the pharmaceutical and automobile industries are key growth areas and investments for these two countries. There is an increasing presence of Indian companies in Mexico and vice-versa, and the signing of MoUs between reputed universities, signalling growing academic exchanges, mainly regarding Ayurveda, have taken place. In 2022, eight Mexican cities celebrated International Yoga Day. Efforts are also underway to sign a bilateral investment treaty to strengthen the bilateral institutional framework. He emphasised the need for regular political dialogues between India and Mexico to help them work better within international organisations like the United Nations. Finally, the growing convergence of interests allows the two countries to strengthen international regimes collectively.Ambassador Chinoy thanked Ambassador Sharma for his remarks and expressed his hope to see India and Mexico establish enduring ties, following which he invited Ambassador Lotfe to deliver his remarks.Ambassador Federico Salas Lotfe, Ambassador of Mexico to India, expressed his appreciation to be invited to be a part of the webinar and remarked on the able leadership of Ambassador Chinoy and Dr. Alcocer, which helped bring this event to fruition. He also fondly recalled meeting with Ambassador Chinoy a few months ago regarding this event’s conduct. Moreover, he spoke about the growing relationship between Mexico and India, signs visible across all spectrums, including trade. Information and space technology, agriculture, and artificial intelligence are critical areas of cooperation between the two countries. There is also visible cooperation across multilateral and international formats to better serve both countries' interests. Therefore, in this context, more communication channels between them must open as they move forward with their ties, this webinar being an essential example and an important first step in that direction. He also reiterated Ambassador Chinoy’s call to conduct an in-person meeting soon. Ambassador Chinoy thanked Ambassador Lotfe for his kind remarks and emphasised how India-Mexico strategic partnership should be multifaceted, mainly focused on trade and economic linkages. Finally, he extended an offer to conduct an annual bilateral dialogue between MP-IDSA and COMEXI, gradually introducing other stakeholders as a part of this initiative. With these remarks, he concluded the inaugural session and gave the floor to Ambassador Bhatia, who chaired the first session.

Session I

The first session on “Regional Developments and Bilateral Relations” was chaired by Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and Former Ambassador of India to Mexico. He mentioned that relations with Mexico have been developing over the past decades but are seen to be picking up pace lately. Within India, there isn’t a lot of widespread awareness about Mexico’s foreign policy and the role it plays in matters of international importance. He praised Mexico for making good strides in its foreign policy, even though critics say otherwise, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic policies and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Indo Pacific is another shared concern for the two countries. This region holds Mexico’s interest for economic reasons and India’s for geopolitical ones.

The chair requested the speakers to shed light on how Mexico will deal with the geopolitical dynamics unravelling in the Indo Pacific and Asian continent. How will it merge with India’s recent foreign policy? Ambassador Bhatia mentioned that for the last fifteen years, focus has been on elevating the India-Mexico privileged relationship to the level of strategic partnership. For this to take shape without any delays, the involvement of the highest political echelons is a must. The Parliament Speaker, Om Birla’s upcoming visit to Mexico reflects well of the Indian intentions. The chair highlighted the bilateral cooperation between India and Mexico, in the economic sphere and in science and technology and space. In taking relations forward, now defence and security cooperation are becoming important facets of this bilateral relationship. Concluding his initial remarks, the chair stated that cooperation between academic institutes and think tanks of the two countries should be sped up to give way for deep discussions on matters of importance and exchange of thought.

Dr. Ashok Behuria (Senior Fellow and Coordinator, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA) spoke on the “Recent Developments in South Asia”. He commenced by highlighting the significant role of India in the Asian sub-continent. The sheer size of its landmass, geographic location, its huge defence expenditure and the GDP reflect the importance that India holds amongst its neighbours. It’s policy of look east and act east have been ways of furthering integration in the south and south east Asian regions. These efforts could have yielded better results with cooperation from the western neighbours, which was found wanting. The pandemic has worsened economic and political conditions in many of the neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar. India however, has stood like a pillar of stability in the region and provided all possible non reciprocal help to its neighbours in the form of aid, assistance and vaccines. It also has a huge line of credit for Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Maldives amongst others. India also undertook US $2 billion investment in Afghanistan from 2001-2021, reflecting its efforts to work tirelessly for regional integration, growth and prosperity.

Dr. Behuria mentioned the hindrance of Pakistan in providing India with territorial access to its north-western and central Asian neighbourhoods. During the pandemic, Afghanistan also witnessed a regime change, which has redefined the security dynamics of the Asian continent. Taliban is averse to upholding the rights of women and minorities, slipping into regressive radicalism.  This is resulting in the promotion of reactive radicalism outside of Afghanistan, amongst like-minded organisations and groups. The fashion in which the US withdrawal took place in Afghanistan has encouraged Taliban and like-minded groups to pursue their agendas with full vigor. Its ripple effects are gradually percolating outside Afghanistan and are being felt by Pakistan in their dealings with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

Dr. Behuria mentioned the global rise in terrorism and radicalism, with special emphasis on the Af-Pak region. There have been small scale attacks in other Asian states like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Maldives but nothing of the scale witnessed in Afghanistan. However, this opens a window of opportunity for India-Mexico cooperation over counter terrorism efforts. The speaker also mentioned the economic meltdown, triggering regime changes in Sri Lanka and Nepal and the Galwan Valley incident, where China single-handedly tried to alter the status quo at LAC. Such incidents should prompt democratic countries to join hands in discovering and innovating ways to make democratic systems less debt-ridden and cumbersome. Dr. Behuria concluded with the thought that South Asian nations need to first settle their conflicts and then work towards a larger economic integration. This will encourage mutual growth and prosperity but can only successfully materialise with full efforts from all partner countries.

Prof. Guadalupe González Chávez, (Consultant, Columnist, El Heraldo de México, Professor, and Associate, COMEXI) spoke on the “Recent Developments in Latin America”. She elaborated analytically on the key developments unfolding in the region. Being a region full of diversity, fighting with hunger, economic de-escalation, violence and the after effects of the pandemic, its governance assumes paramount importance for Latin America. Prof. Chávez recognizes that owing to instability and low living standards in certain parts of this region, it is receptive to intra as well as inter-continental migration. Intra-regional communications and inter-state relations were in place from before the advent of Europeans.

The speaker observed that Latin American and Caribbean nations work together as a region in UN bodies and other organisations. For them it is important to address the development of the region and stand united in their demands. There are political differences and disagreements between the countries but the ultimate goal is of global peace and development. She pointed out that public administration alone cannot promise development. There is a need for the involvement of various social, political and economic institutions and organisations within the country to bring about real development. This is what is the region is struggling with in current times.

Prof. Chávez observed that the Latin American and Caribbean region has been subject to constant crisis and change for the past few decades, from the 1960s revolutions in Cuba and Nicaragua, which brought about social change, to the current trend of “new constitutionalism” that has rigged the region. In last three years, a lot of traditional legal constitutions have been changed, to varying degrees. The most recent example being Chile, where plebiscite is due over constitutional changes. The speaker observed that the need for large scale social change and an open digital society have been evident post pandemic in many Latin American countries. Justice and Rule of law have been discussed for the past two decades in Latin America and play a significant role in achieving regional peace and stability. However, the region is gripped with challenges in achieving political openness and organised governance. There is also absence of social justice and prevalence of human rights abuses in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala.

Prof. Chávez pointed out the new tendency in the region to recognise social diversity, pluralism, multiculturalism and the need for social integration in the region. Non-proliferation and non-possession of nuclear weapons is a key factor which integrates and promotes cooperation amongst regional members. Peace and stability should continue to be a part of the integration process following any political or military crisis. In conclusion, the speaker mentioned Pacific alliance as yet another key platform where Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico can come together to develop significant outcomes over political, economic, academic and other arenas of cooperation. For Latin America the goal right now is to solve the integration issues and disparities, to solve the intra and inter regional problems pertaining to climate change, integration and institutionalisation of norms.

Ms. Ruchita Beri (Senior Research Associate and Coordinator, Africa, LAC & UN Centre, MP-IDSA) spoke on “India-Mexico Bilateral Relations, Perspective from India”. She referred to the India and Mexico roadmap to upgrade their relationship to strategic partnership. To attain that, she focused on four pillars of cooperation between the two countries. First being energy cooperation, where crude oil forms a major component. India is the third largest global importer of crude, whereas Mexico is the fourth largest producer. However, Indian crude imports from Mexico are bound to decrease next year, owing to the Mexican President’s policy of energy independence which focuses inwards for reducing costly refined imports. This move may shift the focus to climate friendly renewable sources of energy. A report from Mckenzie suggests that being rich in solar, geothermal and wind energy, Mexico has the potential to assume the leadership in clean energy, hence, increasing avenues of cooperation with India. The recent statement of the Mexican President in support of transition to clean energy reinforces the hope of increased India-Mexico cooperation in alternate sources of energy.

The second pillar is agriculture and food security. Cooperation in this sector isn’t new for the two countries. Mexican wheat variety formed the backbone of Indo-Mexican wheat during the green revolution in India in the 1960s. Both the countries share similar topography and climate conditions, making cooperation in the agro-sector more fruitful. The two countries have a wide array of cooperation possibilities in fisheries, food processing equipment, agro products, improved seed and farm equipment. The new pact inked between India and Mexico over space technology will help to get space inputs for crop monitoring, drought assessment and capacity building in agricultural sector. This gives hope to further cooperation between Indian and Mexican chambers of trade and commerce.

The third pillar is considering Mexico as the gateway to Latin America. India’s diplomatic and trade relations with this region have been neglected in the past due to issues of political diversity, lack of adequate human resources, language barrier and poor connectivity. But now Mexico is seen as the key to connect to Latin America and Carribean states. It is a part of the Pacific alliance and Latin America is also a top destination for investments abroad. All of this makes Mexico the key to access Latin American trade routes and markets. The fourth pillar is the shared interest in the African continent. India has a historical relation with Africa but Mexico’s contact with the region is comparatively less, particularly with Sub-Saharan Africa. The economic potential of Africa is attracting more diplomatic presence from Mexico and other external powers. India has initiated triangular cooperation models in Africa with like-minded countries (Japan, US, UAE). Certain East African countries are also a part of the Indo Pacific region, increasing their significance for India. The latter may consider collaborating with Mexico in future over these geographically distant but strategically important waters, owing to their interest in the Indo Pacific.

The speaker concluded that growing convergence at the government-to-government level between India and Mexico should give impetus to increased dialogue at the industry, think tanks, civil society and academic levels.

Ambassador Nathan Wolf (Former Ambassador of Mexico to Singapore and Member, COMEXI) shared his thoughts on “India-Mexico Bilateral Relations, Perspective from Mexico”. He mentioned the warm and cordial relations shared between India and Mexico. He stated the transition of India-Mexico ties from a privileged partnership to a strategic partnership happened in 2016. In order to follow the roadmap as laid out by the two governments, there is a need to deepen cooperation in science and technology, space cooperation, IT, medicine, education and facilitation of trade and investments by both the countries. Ambassador Wolf highlighted the similarities of cultural relations and people to people contacts which are important for pushing ahead the strategic partnership. He also spoke of Latin America and South Asia facing similar challenges like COVID-19 pandemic, recession and economic crisis, which has permanently altered the socio, economic and political course of these regions.

The speaker mentioned certain factors which should be taken into account to assess the well-being of citizens. A few of those are, increasing poverty and transition to a green economy. The latter is also a major component of the sustainable development goals laid out by the UN. Transition of geopolitical interests due to COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, technological advancements, environmental and climate changes, have brought about certain socio-political changes that have led to emergence of new assets for nations like Mexico and India. This is proving to be a critical factor in modifying the system of alliances. Changing investment environment and the borderless digital world is making companies adopt business models different from their traditional ones.

In conclusion, Ambassador Wolf highlighted factors like climate change, cyberattacks and social inequality, which make it imperative for countries like India and Mexico to join hands in dealing with them collectively. The asymmetric global recovery from the pandemic and the resultant disruption in the critical supply chains is further delaying the economic recovery of many nations and industries. The Russia- Ukraine crisis has taken poverty, malnutrition and economic problems to another level. The international measures taken to mitigate this crisis have further dented the financial situation, increased the risk of inflation and triggered global economic slowdown. Increased migratory flows have been a classic characteristic of our crisis ridden world lately and to deal with all this successfully, India and Mexico should deepen their collaboration and cooperation.

Q/A session: There were two questions put up from the audience regarding the Mexican President’s visit to India for the G20 summit and the absence of India being mentioned in the Mexican Government’s National Development Plan (PND), which laid down plans and objectives of interaction with Asia. Ambassador Wolf answered the questions suggesting that the Mexican President has very restricted travel plans and has undertaken only a few trips within the region, at short distances. He did not express hope over a possible change in this pattern, leading to his physical presence at India’s chairmanship of the G20 this year. For the second question, he recognised that while referring to Asia, the bias is evident in over-emphasis on China as compared to the other Asian countries. He highlighted that dialogues such as this will prove helpful in overcoming similar hurdles and expanding the horizon of relations with the Asian continent. He stated that Mexico and India should work alongside each other.

Session II

The second session on “Emerging Areas of Cooperation” was chaired by Mr. Vladimir Vázquez Hernández, the Deputy Chief of Mission at the Embassy of Mexico in Honduras. He underscored that Mexico was the first Latin American country to recognise India upon its independence and to establish diplomatic ties with it in 1950. He delineated how India has made tremendous advancements in the fields of trade and development, and how it is presently combating the pandemic with its pharmaceutical capabilities. The pandemic has also demonstrated the need of having a decentralised ecosystem for vaccine production. He invited the panelists to discuss this further and to expand on the two countries' multilateral cooperation.

Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.) (Research Fellow, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA) discussed the possibilities of the India-Mexico security partnership, stating that there has not been enough cooperation on security related matters.  He highlighted specific areas where the two nations' security partnership had the potential to progress. The first is concerned with terrorism and radicalisation. The speaker continues by asserting that it is important to participate in a worldwide struggle against the spread of terrorism. Regulation and agreement on certain basic and broad principles can assist with it as well. In the area of the relationship between crime, money laundering, and terrorist funding, the speaker added that there is a need to go beyond traditional areas of security while planning security cooperation between governments, to include sectors engaged in the management of the financial and the private sector. 

Defence manufacturing is another area where India and Mexico can further cooperate. One of the success stories of the 'Aatma Nirbhar' project involves the indigenous design and construction of warships for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. Aside from naval vessels, there are other programmes underway to build drones and surveillance technology, which may be of interest to Mexico as well.

Border management is a major challenge for both India and Mexico. Both India and Mexico encounter several obstacles along their huge coastlines. The Coast Guard's capability has grown significantly throughout the years. This features an upgraded monitoring grid that aids in greater transparency of responsibility regions.

Col. Chadha also emphasised the need of working together to support projects for disaster relief and humanitarian aid. On a number of occasions, India has been among the first responders to aid and evacuate individuals afflicted by natural disasters and conflict zones. The security forces of both countries have extensive experience that may be provided on a reciprocal basis, to presence in courses of instruction and training academies.  The speaker's final point on the possibilities for defence and security collaboration is space cooperation, which may include security-related areas such as communications, for which India has deployed a number of satellites for its own security agencies. The chair contributed to the conversation by stating that water management will be critical in the next decades. In addition, both nations are dealing with the impacts of climate change. As a result, this issue will become even more critical, and both the Coast Guard and defence manufacturers must work together to achieve a clear understanding in the coming years.

Mr. Fausto Carbajal Glass (Lecturer, Universidad Anáhuac Mexico and Member, COMEXI) initiated the discussion by congratulating India on the celebration of its 75th year of independence. Mr. Glass discussed potential areas of security cooperation between India and Mexico, as well as the concept of universal access to vaccines. India has come to assist Mexico in supplying vaccines during the latter's crisis. He went on to say that one of the lessons learned during the pandemic was that Mexico should strengthen its bilateral relationship with India, particularly in the field of pharmaceuticals, as well as bilateral cooperation on scientific matters and scientific research, in order to be better prepared to face similar security challenges in the future.  

The space sector, particularly in the fields of remote sensing, satellite communications, and peaceful use of outer space, should be an expanding area of security cooperation. It is worth noting that India is a country that has developed satellites and low-cost spacecraft, and is therefore indeed a noteworthy and exceptional achievement. Cooperation between the two space agencies, in particular, would boost Mexico's satellite ability to deal with natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes, massive fires, and so on. It is critical to strengthen bilateral collaboration and involve joint research and innovation in the field. The speaker also discussed the future prospects of security cooperation between the two nations.

Dr. Rajeesh Kumar (Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA) addressed India's priorities and interests in various global multilateral fora, and listed out the possible areas of multilateral cooperation between India and Mexico. Dr. Kumar noted that India's multilateral approach has evolved considerably between 1947 and 2022. In an era when rivalries dominate global politics and the relevance of multilateralism is questioned, one may consider whether India and Mexico should encourage multilateral cooperation by investigating possible areas where India and Mexico can cooperate, as well as, areas where cooperation is limited. Both nations, who are UNSC non-permanent members, seek UNSC reforms demonstrating the potential for collaboration in this area. Within the United Nations, there are issues where India and Mexico may cooperate and work together, such as global terrorism, which is a priority for both India and Mexico.

Similarly, there are possibilities to boost multilateral cooperation between the two on peacekeeping issues.  Mexico opened a joint training center for peacekeeping operations in 2020. India has extensive expertise in this area, and the two countries might work together to exchange knowledge and resources in this field. Another multilateral platform for issues related to trade will be the World Trade Organization (WTO). The agricultural sector is the cornerstone of the present WTO discussions, and both countries are attempting to correct the anomalies in agriculture and food subsidies. Cooperation in the G-20 will be another test for both Mexico and India to see how the idea for reforms in multilateral organisations can be implemented. Dr. Kumar concluded by saying that India and Mexico need to better understand each other's political realities, capabilities, and goals. Both sides must define their priorities after realistically assessing their skills and prospects for participation in multilateral platforms.

Ms. Irma Gómez Cavazos (Advisor, Secretaries of Equality and Inclusion, and Education of Nuevo Leon & former Undersecretary for International Cooperation and Economic) centered her thoughts on the importance of education in the future of multilateral cooperation. Technology is driving the educational system and process. There is a need to concentrate on the curriculum development process and to incorporate coding and data sciences into school curricula. India has extensive experience in these areas of technology. The MP-IDSA and COMEXI may collaborate with the embassies in both countries to increase university collaboration between the countries. She also reiterated how Mexico can act as the door to Latin America and added that education, health, and the water management system, are three main areas of cooperation between India and Mexico that need immediate attention.

Ms. Cavazos noted that it was essential to discuss how each country's skills might be brought together on the table and find ways to have a shared agenda at multilateral cooperation organisations such as the United Nations. There is a need to begin the process of identifying themes and working on the many areas of expertise that both institutions have in order to discover methods to undertake triangular cooperation with Latin America and Africa, as well as multilateral cooperation in the international arena. In his concluding remarks, the chair mentioned solar energy technology for tackling climate change as part of the triangular cooperation.

Closing Session

In his closing statement, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, spoke on the immense potential for India and Mexico to strengthen defence cooperation and engage in areas such as countering transnational terrorism. He went on to say that activities like this bilateral dialogue would help propel the strategic partnership announced in 2016. He further stated that MP-IDSA anticipates more similar exchanges in the future.

In his concluding remarks on behalf of COMEXI, Mr. Vladimir Vázquez Hernández said that new global actors are emerging and that Mexico and India shall be well suited to confronting those challenges jointly in the reconfiguration of the international order.

This report was prepared by Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Counter-Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA, Ms. Anandita Bhada, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA and Ms. Bulbul Prakash, Intern, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA.

Monday Morning Meeting on Artificial Intelligence and National Security August 08, 2022 Sanur Sharma 1000 hrs Monday Morning Meeting

Dr. Sanur Sharma, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Artificial Intelligence and National Security” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 8 August 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, scholars of the Institute, and online participants were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines to perform cognitive tasks like thinking, perceiving, learning, problem solving and decision making. Many AI applications are dual-use, where they have both military and civil applications. In the military sector AI has various applications in Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance; Logistics; Cyberspace Operations; Information Operations (and “Deep Fakes”); Command and Control; Semi-Autonomous and Autonomous Vehicles; and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). More than 30 Countries including - US, China, Russia, India UK, France have released their National Plan and Strategy on AI. Further, the threats due to Al’s Penetration into National Security and Global Geopolitics have potential to start a new arms race. There are also policy, regulatory, and ethical issues pertaining to AI. In the context of India, the Defence Minister has stated that lessons drawn from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will push the Indian Armed Forces to adopt emerging technologies like AI in various defence systems.

Detailed Report

Dr. Cherian Samuel commenced the session by welcoming the audience to the Monday Morning Meeting. He introduced the topic and stated that everyone experiences Artificial Intelligence (AI) in one form or another, most commonly with speaking assistants, google maps, etc. He mentioned that there are certain swirling controversies surrounding AI, like ethical issues which are magnified when AI is used in defence applications like Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). He also suggested that the full potential of AI is yet to be discovered and on the flipside potential dangers of using these technologies are a concern. Therefore, when it comes to AI and National Security, the security dilemma is exacerbated since there is a lack of clarity on how AI enabled weapons will operate in the battlefield. There are many complexities with this technology that need to be unpacked.

With these remarks, Dr. Cherian invited Dr. Sanur Sharma to make her presentation. Dr. Sharma started her presentation by listing all the elements of her presentation. She stated that there have been numerous definitions of AI in AI literature. She mentioned that the actual definition of AI is an enabler to technologies because it has applications throughout all sectors. She listed some unique characteristics of AI; they are dual-use, meaning they have both military and civil applications, they are relatively less transparent, which means their  integration into a product may not be immediately recognisable, creating concerns amongst policy makers. However, she suggested that there is now a concept called explainable AI where the decision maker is able to comprehend and trust the results generated by the AI model and interpret how a particular decision has been made through these algorithms and models. She elaborated on the use of AI in predictive analytics, deep learning, language processing models (NLP), expert systems for healthcare, video and text recognition, robotics, planning and optimisation.

She stated that there has been a lot of debate on the use of AI by political and business leaders and its threats. Therefore, AI does require regulation. However, she felt that the concern of AI being an existential threat to humanity was debatable. In the private sector alone, around US$95 billion was spent on AI in 2021. She further mentioned that AI has gained the attention of commercial investors, defence intellectuals, policy makers, and international competitors alike. Recent developments like increased use of Al in cyberattacks and growth of hybrid warfare techniques have showcased how Al can potentially affect national security. Advances in AI will affect national security by driving change in three areas: Military, Information, and Economic Superiority.

She listed and explained in detail various AI defence applications like Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR); Logistics; Cyberspace Operations; Information Operations (and “Deep Fakes”); Command and Control; Semi-Autonomous and Autonomous Vehicles; and LAWS. While explaining the ISR applications of AI, she gave the example of Project Maven where through material shared by Google and the US Department of Defense, the machine learning model behind the software used in Project Maven was trained to identify 38 different kinds of objects and, has already been deployed to locations in the Middle East and Africa, where it is helping military analysts sort through the mountains of data their sensors and drones soak up on a daily basis.

Further, the training and simulation applications of AI for the military were also discussed by Dr. Sharma. She stated that war-gaming is a well-established tradition in the PLA, given China’s relative lack of real-world combat experience. Also, AI-based war-gaming software for use in professional military education programs are on the rise. Dr. Sharma apprised the audience of the AI application for command and control. She emphasised that it is likely that the PLA’s most significant AI-enabled C2 projects are classified. Several Chinese enterprises advertise AI systems capable of automating some elements of command and control—including knowledge mapping, decision support, weapon target assignment, and combat tasking. She asserted that AI was the top military technology in 2022 in terms of impact a technology will have on the military sector. In terms of adoption of AI in the defence sector, almost 49 per cent of defence organisations are in the adoption process of AI.

Drawing attention to AI and a military case study, she spoke on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and AI role in it. She stated that AI has been used extensively in the conflict. Russian Troll Farms have used AI to generate human faces for fake, propagandist personas, AI audio and video disinformation. Softwares like Clearview AI, SpaceKnow, Snorkel AI are being used to analyse signals and adversary communications, identify high-value information, and use it to guide diplomacy and decision-making. She further talked about the disruptions caused due to AI. The US, Russia, and China are trying to incorporate AI into their military equipment rapidly. Absence of global coalitions to regulate Al based tools can lead to rogue states and non-state actors getting access to these technologies.

Elaborating on Al’s penetration into national security and global geopolitics, she talked in detail about China, Russia and the US. On July 20, 2017, the Chinese Government released a strategy detailing its plan to take the lead in AI by 2030. Less than two months later Vladimir Putin publicly announced Russia’s intent to pursue AI technologies, stating, “Whoever becomes the leader in this field will rule the world” ('Whoever leads in AI will rule the world’: Putin to Russian children on Knowledge Day, Russia Today, 1 September 2017). Similarly, in the US, the National Defense Strategy, released in January 2018, identified artificial intelligence as one of the key technologies that will ensure [the United States] will be able to fight and win the wars of the future. More than 30 Countries including - UK, France, Germany, Finland, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Mexico, Kenya, Tunisia and UAE have all released their National Plan and Strategy on AI. She emphasised that China is leapfrogging into this technology along with Europe which is doing well with a very comprehensive General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). India is now moving ahead in its investments too. She then discussed the AI development timelines of the US, China and India. Proliferation of Al in weapon systems in combination with absence of international regulation on their development could lead to a new arms race. Finally, the dual-use nature of Al based tools creates a scenario where non-state actors hold significant resources and thus have the potential for weaponisation of Al.

Talking about the roadmap of development of AI in India, she stated that India is not a late entrant in this field. India has come up with the AI development policy under the NITI Aayog but it was for the civil and private sector with focus towards healthcare, agriculture, e-commerce, etc. In defence, India got into AI later in 2019 through the Defence AI Council (DAIC) and Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA). Both of the agencies are funded to the tune of Rs.100 Cr collectively for R&D into AI-enabled products in the defence sector. India’s advancements in AI have been promising. The Indian Navy is currently working on 30 AI projects on autonomous systems, maritime domain awareness, perimeter security, decision making, predictive inventory maintenance and management. The Navy is also establishing an AI Centre of Excellence at INS Valsura in Jamnagar, equipped with a modern lab on AI and Big Data Analytics. The Army has set up an AI Centre at Military College of Telecommunication Engineering in Mhow. The Indian Army is also conducting trials of indigenously AI enabled unmanned all-terrain vehicles in Ladakh in August 2022. She quoted the Indian Defence Minister stating that through lessons drawn from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Indian Armed Forces are pushing for adoption of new technologies.

Discussing the policy, regulatory, and ethical issues of AI, Dr. Sharma explained that in AI Ethics and Transparency, AI systems raise questions concerning the criteria used in automated decision making. Dr. Sharma concluded her presentation by pointing out a few key takeaways. She stated that the entry of Artificial Intelligence in the security domain has shown us glimpses of the complexity and the need for preparedness that is required to assimilate it. With further growth of Al, the threats it presents and opportunities it creates for national security will progressively multiply. Based on the world experience on AI, she suggested a way forward for India, which involves infrastructure development, policy & regulations, research & development, and human resource development. Along with a clear policy, there is a dire need to invest in critical infrastructure so that the data servers lie within the territory. Finally she asserted the importance of indigenous development, civil-military fusion, tapping the civilian innovation ecosystem, international cooperation, and balancing adoption and innovation.

Discussion

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy congratulated Dr. Sharma for her presentation on a very complex topic. He stated that AI is going to be one of the determining factors in future great power contestations and wars along with future use and misuse of data, and manipulation of politics through social media. Therefore, lack of attention and investments in this area will only be at India’s peril. He stated that since there are no ethical yardsticks currently available which will guide India into investing only in certain areas, India must put in more investments and analyse what the competitors are doing and try to match up. It has been observed how the Chinese ran the initiative on the hardware side first and then caught up on the software side. Therefore, India needs to put in more work. Ambassador Chinoy also emphasised the importance of MP-IDSA working on AI, particularly on its implications for the military. He also highlighted the significance of Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAVs), especially the threat of unmanned underwater vehicles deployed by adversaries that may collect our data.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi mentioned that AI related systems need very complex programming and programming AI systems to learn for themselves is even more complicated and unpredictable. Transparency and predictability are not in the control of the designer and that is where the danger lies. He also talked briefly about the applications of AI in the military sector.

Ms. Krutika Patil put forth her views on AI being different from other technologies. Unlike other technologies that can be bought directly and utilised in any environment with few modifications, interoperability is not possible with AI. Building AI systems is pure hard work and India would need unique data for AI to work for its defence requirements. She also mentioned that the US has a more advanced defence AI ecosystem than China due to its access to contextual data.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan too reiterated that the subject of AI is complex. He expressed his concern over the definitions of AI and stated that one must be careful with the meaning of these definitions since when science becomes social science, concepts tend to get more complicated. He emphasised on the need to delve upon the debate of who makes the war, man or machine. Technologies like AI are a higher form of automation that will make the war simpler. He also mentioned that China is not surging as much ahead in AI as it appears.

Dr. Swasti Rao asked about the dangers related to AI capabilities of non-state actors and expressed concern related to open source research on AI and military, and whether the complexity of the issue can be gauged through open source research. Dr. Sanur Sharma answered by asserting that AI researchers working on security issues need to integrate with the defence institutions to gain access to appropriate data to gauge the level of threats and complexities.

Ambassador Saurabh Kumar enquired if India had taken any initiatives in the United Nations on the ethical and legal aspects of AI. He asserted that India should consider taking such steps similar to India’s role in 1982 on the relationship between disarmament and development. Dr. Sharma responded by mentioning that she is not aware of India taking such initiatives but she has come across reports of China insisting on having a dialogue on said topic in the UN.

Mr. Dinesh Pathak emphasised that since security has two components, reading risks and determining response, AI can help in the first one but response needs to be the application of mind and the role of a human is also essential.

Mr. Niranjan Oak posed a question on the role of private sector investment in the innovation of AI. He enquired about possible steps taken by western countries to counter Chinese investments and influence in western AI start-ups. Dr. Sharma answered by mentioning that the US is taking various measures like creating a list of Chinese entities that are infiltrating US-based AI start-ups.

The discussion ended with a vote of thanks by Dr. Cherian Samuel.

The report has been prepared by Ms. Krutika Patil, Research Assistant, Cybersecurity Project, MP-IDSA.

North America & Strategic Technologies

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