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Talk by William A. Stanton on "The Failures of U.S. Policy Towards China" October 20, 2015 1000 to 1200 hrs Other

Venue: IDSA Board Room

About the Speaker

On October 20, 2014, Dr. William A. Stanton assumed the position of Interim Senior Vice President of Global Affairs for National Tsing Hua University (NTHU) with a mandate to strengthen NTHU’s international academic cooperation, to promote international recognition, and to find new resources to help accomplish these goals. As of February 1, 2015, he was appointed Senior Vice President of Global Affairs.

Since July 1, 2013, Dr. Stanton has also served as the founding Director of NTHU’s Center for Asia Policy as the first George K.C. Yeh Distinguished Chair Professor of General Studies. The Center is focused on giving Taiwan a stronger and more prominent voice in academic discussions of Asia policy, and on providing research support, ideas, and practical recommendations for Taiwan policies.

Prior to his return to academics, Dr. Stanton served for 34 years as a U.S. diplomat. His final posting was as Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) from August 2009 to July 2012. During his tenure at AIT, significant progress was made on a number of key bilateral issues, including Taiwan's entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program, security assistance, high-level visits, and resolution of trade disputes. For his contributions to U.S. trade with Taiwan, Dr. Stanton was awarded the 2011 Charles E. Cobb Award for Initiative and Success in Trade Development. For his overall contributions to U.S.-Taiwan relations, Taiwan President Ma Ying Jeou awarded Dr. Stanton the Order of the Brilliant Star with Grand Cordon.

Dr. Stanton previously served as Deputy Chief of Mission to both the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, Korea (2006-09) and the U.S. Embassy in Canberra, Australia (2003-06). During the latter assignment, he served some 23 months as Chargé d'affaires ad interim. His other Asia-related experience included two three-year assignments at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, the first time as a 1st Secretary and the second time as Minister Counselor for Political Affairs; and in the Department of State as Deputy Director for the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs, and as Special Assistant for East Asia and Pacific Affairs for the Under Secretary for Political Affairs. Dr. Stanton received two years of Mandarin training, including a year of language studies at AIT.

Dr. Stanton has also served as Director of the Office of Egyptian and North African Affairs; Director of the Office of UN Political Affairs; Political-Military Affairs Officer in Embassy Islamabad; Country Officer for Lebanon; Staff Assistant for the Assistant Secretary for Near East and South Asian Affairs; Watch Officer in the Department of State Operations Center; and Consular and Political Officer at Embassy Beirut. Dr. Stanton's State Department awards include the Secretary's Career Achievement Award, three Superior Honor Awards, one Superior Group Award, and several performance awards. For his contributions to the U.S. Forces Korea Command from 2006 to 2009, the U.S. Department of the Army awarded Dr. Stanton the Outstanding Civilian Service Medal.

Dr. Stanton earned a B.A., magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa, from Fordham University in New York and an M.A. and a Ph.D. (1978) in English literature from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, which he attended on a National Defense Education Act Fellowship. He also spent a year studying at Albert-Ludwigs University in Freiburg, Germany.

East Asia
18th Asian Security Conference - Securing Cyberspace: Asian and International Perspectives February 09, 2016 to February 11, 2016 Conference
North America & Strategic Technologies Asian Security Conference
Joint Seminar on India-Korea Relations September 16, 2015 1000 to 1300 hrs Conference

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delh - Embassy of the Republic of Korea, New Delhi

9.45: Registration and Coffee

10.00: Welcome Remarks

  • Ambassador, Embassy of the Republic of Korea, New Delhi
  • Brig Rumel Dahiya (Retd.), DDG, IDSA

Session I: 10.15- 11.30: India-Korea Bilateral Relations: Political, Economic and Defence (15 minutes per speaker followed by open discussion)

Chair: Amb Skand Tayal

  • Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh: India-Korea Relations
  • Prof. YOO Ho yeol: Korea University: Unification policy of the Republic of Korea and the Contribution of India for the Unification
  • Dr. HAN Dong ho: Korea Institute for National Unification: Human Right Situation in North Korea and Contribution of India for the improvement.
  • Dr. Sandip Mishra: India's Relations with South and North Korea

11.30 to 11.45: Coffee Break
Session II: 11.45-13.00: Regional Security Issues of Common Interests: (Korean Peninsula, Maritime Security, East Asian Regional Security) (15 minutes per speaker followed by open discussion)

Chair: Prof. YOO Ho yeol (TBC)

  • Ms. M. S. Pratibha: India and North Korea Nuclear Issue
  • Prof. YOO Ho yeol: Korea University: Inter Koreas Relations
  • Dr. HAN Dong ho, KINU: Domestic Situation in North Korea.
  • Mr. Avinash Godbole: Emerging Asian Security Architecture: Implications for India and Korea
  • Dr. Jagannath Panda: India’s Current Perception on East Asia
East Asia
2nd West Asia Conference - Ideology, Politics and New Security Challenges in West Asia January 19, 2016 to January 20, 2016 Conference
Eurasia & West Asia West Asia Conference, West Asia
3rd Annual Internal Security National Seminar on "Radicalisation: A Growing Security Challenge for India" December 09, 2015 1000 to 1700 hrs Conference

Conference Coordinator: Col Abdul Hameed Khan (ahkesk@gmail.com)

Concept Note

On August 1, 2015 the Union Home Secretary of India chaired a high level meeting of the representatives of central intelligence and security agencies, Directors General of Police (DsGP) and Home Secretaries of the 12 States. Among other issues related to Internal Security, radicalisation of the youth was discussed as one of the potent threats facing the Nation today.

World over, hundreds of youth are joining religious extremist groups such as Daesh or the Islamic State (IS). Large number of the volunteers, even from the most advanced European countries, are lining up to become fighters convinced for the need ‘to protect of their faith’. They have been radicalised to the extent that they are giving up seemingly comfortable upwardly life to become foot soldiers in a world of chaos and to participate in the ongoing brutality.

India so far has been relatively luckier. In spite of the huge diversity in the country and milieu of religious ideologies within, the negligible impact of IS or any other international terrorist group is impressive. The strength of India’s socio cultural fabric has held its divergent components together. The robust Indian democratic setup has absorbed the shocks of communal tremors, as yet. It has presented almost equal opportunities for its affluent as well as the most down trodden. This has been possible in spite of the numerous ‘fault lines’ of the society and gruelling poverty for millions who are susceptible for all kinds of propaganda and psychological mind games.

But lately the country has seen attempts of mass mobilisation on ideological lines. There are also allegations that the political parties are attempting to benefit from the social polarisation. The instances of religious intolerances and provocations have increased. Aided with the 24 x 7 electronic and impactful social media, these diatribes are reaching the masses in every remote nook and corner of the country creating a charged up atmosphere of insecurity and alienation. Alienation aids radicalisation. Especially when there are numerous organisations on the lookout for such disgruntled and insecure youths, pretending to address their grievances, only to take advantage of it. The unlimited indoctrinating capsules in the virtual cyber world are also available for the takers for on-line indoctrination and eventual radicalisation. There are virtual worlds created on the social media of likeminded people absorbing and sharing the poison of extremist ideologies.

Radicalisation is the first step towards extremism, as any conflict starts from the mind. These radicals adopt extreme political, social or religious ideals and aspirations that undermine the status quo and reject contemporary ideas and freedom of choice. If opportunity presents they may not hesitate to perpetrate violence, thus becoming a grave threat to the national security. Given the country’s enormous size and population, even small proportion of the population getting affected, could well assume alarming proportions.

It is seen that radicalisation of the younger generation is easiest. In their impressionable age they are most susceptible to indoctrination. They are media savvy and aspire to become meaningful for a larger cause or ideology. In the absence of a worthy agenda in life, especially when faced with unemployment or underemployment and difficult conditions of life especially in clustered urban pockets, they may fall prey to radical ideologies. India’s burgeoning youth bulge thus presents numerous challenges. If it is not converted into a demographic dividend, it could well become a demographic disaster.

But if this conflict starts from the minds, the remedy too must lie in the minds. For years India’s plurality has absorbed within itself - different ideologies and viewpoints. It has provided space for numerous streams of social sects and varied political notions to co-exist and grow. The Indian constitution is an all-encompassing and amalgamating idealisation. Therefore besides reactive containment of radicalisation and its fallouts through improved policing, intelligence based responses and application of legal deterrence, there is also a need to adopt preventive measures such as to address the very causes of alienation and ensure building up long term systematic institutional mechanisms. The well-established secular approach to politics is probably the key to stop polarisation and ensuring development. Development itself is said to be an anti-dote to numerous social malaise including radicalisation. Education, on the other hand, could be used as an effective counter radicalisation measure. The development of smart cities under an overall long term plan is likely to play a crucial role in reduction of crime and improving satisfaction among masses. Greater involvement of civil society in aiding police when it comes to keeping a vigil and provisioning of intelligence will enhance efficient policing. Reconciliation on some of the major tragedies of the past through a mechanism of judicial and social activism could also help the society to move on. These and other measures require a deliberation to chalk out a strategy for mitigating the challenges while investigating the causes of radicalisation.

The following topics would be discussed under three sessions:-
Opening Session (45 mins: 1000 – 1045 h) : Welcome Address, Key Note Address

Session One (1115 – 1315 h): Radicalisation as an Emerging Internal Security Threat: Causes and Challenges.
A. Radicalisation: its Manifestation and Implications.
B. Causes of Radicalisation in India.
C. Means for Spread of Radicalisation.

Session Two (1400 – 1615 h): Containing Radicalisation and Mitigating its Challenges.
A. Counter / De-Radicalisation Measures including Institutional and Social Reforms.
B. Legal Provisions to Tackle Radicalisation.
C. Smart Policing and Effective Intelligence to Curb Radicalisation.
D. Education as a Counter Measure for Radicalisation.

Valedictory Address (1630 – 1700 h)

Terrorism & Internal Security
9th South Asia Conference - Culture as a Factor in Regional Cooperation in South Asia November 26, 2015 to November 27, 2015 Conference
South Asia South Asia Conference
Talk by Australian Minister for Defence, Kevin Andrews, on ‘Australia's Defence Policies and Growing Synergies with India' September 02, 2015 Kevin Andrews 1000 hrs Other

Chair: Ambassador Biren Nanda, Former High Commissioner of India

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About the Speaker

Kevin Andrews was sworn in as the Minister for Defence in the Australian Government on 23 December 2014.

A member of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s Cabinet, the Minister has been a member of the Australian Commonwealth Parliament, since 1991, serving as the member for the Victorian seat of Menzies in the House of Representatives.

Since his election to parliament, the Minister has served on numerous Parliamentary Committees, including the Joint Select Committee on Family Law Issues, the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties and the Joint Select Committee on Intelligence Services. He has also served as Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs, Chairman of the Federal Government’s Policy Committee on Family and Community Services and Deputy Chairman of the House of Representatives Economics Committee.

The Minister’s previous Ministerial appointments include serving as Minister for Ageing (2001-2003), Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service (2003-2007), Minister for Immigration and Citizenship (2007) and Minister for Social Services (2013-2014).

The Minister has previously served as the Shadow Minister for Schools, Vocational Education and Training (1993-1994) and the Shadow Minister for Families, Housing and Human Services (2009-2013).

Following the defeat of the Howard Government, the Minister was appointed as Chairman of the Coalition’s Federalism Taskforce. He was subsequently appointed Chairman of the Coalition Policy Review and Coalition Policy Coordination Committee in 2008 and held that position until December 2009.

In 2012, the Minister published a book entitled “Maybe I Do: Modern Marriage and the Pursuit of Happiness.”

Raised in country Victoria, the Minister studied law and arts at Melbourne University, where he lived at Newman College, before completing a Master of Laws at Monash University.

Before his election to parliament, the Minister served as an Associate to Sir James Gobbo in the Victorian Supreme Court before practicing law at the Victorian Bar. He was named Australian Young Lawyer of the Year for his community work in establishing a legal scheme for disaster victims, and for publishing a book for seniors about the law.

A keen cyclist, the Minister is married to Margaret and together they have four adult children and a teenage son.

Programme

9.30 AM – 10.00 AM    Registration 

10.00 AM – 10.03 AM    Welcome Remarks by Brig Rumel Dahiya  (Retd)  Deputy Director General, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses

10.03 Am – 10.08    Opening Remarks by Amb Biren Nanda, former High Commissioner of India in Australia (Chair) 

10.08 AM – 10.30 AM    Talk by Honourable Kevin Andrews 

10.30 AM– 10.55 AM Q&A 

10.55 AM –11.00 AM    Closing Remarks by Chair and Vote of Thanks by DDG, IDSA 

11.00 AM onwards    High Tea

 

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Eminent Persons' Lecture Series - Talk by HE Sher Bahadur Deuba on “Political Situation in Nepal” July 31, 2015 Sher Bahadur Deuba Speeches and Lectures

About the Speaker

HE Sher Bahadur Deuba is Former Prime Minister of Nepal and Senior Leader of the Nepali Congress.

Excellencies, Friends, Ladies and Gentlemen!

I would like to begin by offering my heartfelt condolences on the sad and untimely demise of Former President of India, APJ Abdul Kalam. It is an irreparable loss for all of us. He was a great scientist, a committed humanist and a source of inspiration to all, especially youth and children. In his demise, Nepal has lost a great friend. I have vivid memory of meeting him at Rashtrapati Bhawan while I was Prime Minister. I was struck by his simplicity, intelligence and saintly personality. I salute his inspirational life as a man of great achievement and brilliance.

Excellencies and Friends!

I express my sincere thanks to the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) for giving me this opportunity to share my thoughts on Nepal-India relations in the present context at this gathering of eminent personalities, intellectuals and friends of Nepal.

I have come to India at a time when Nepal is engaged in the final stage of promulgating a new democratic, federal, and inclusive Constitution through the Constituent Assembly. A series of agreements among the political parties, the recent 16-series of agreements among the political parties, have generated crucial understanding to move forward by forging common position on some of the key issues of the new Constitution.

We will build on it and take on board all stakeholders in the spirit of inclusiveness since we cannot afford to remain in perennial transition, which has cost a lot in terms of our political stability, economic development and social progress. Our efforts are geared towards accommodating the legitimate concerns and aspirations of all segments of the Nepalese society, including those that have been voiced in the recent public hearing of the draft Constitution. The promulgation of the Constitution will herald a new era of institutionalised peace and stability and strengthened democratic institutions. We also remain committed to Nepal becoming a federal state.

We are equally aware that sustainable peace and stability can be achieved only when we ensure economic prosperity to our people. Hence, while we focus on giving final shape to the political process, we attach corresponding importance to the social-economic development needs of the country.

Friends and Excellencies!

As you all know, a devastating earthquake of 7.8 Richter magnitude struck Nepal on 25th April of this year, which caused massive human loss, suffering and destruction of infrastructure. This earthquake was followed by four major aftershocks of more than 6 Richter magnitude, as well as one which was more 7.3 after 17 days that caused even more damage and distress. Our closest neighbour India was the first to lend us support. I fondly recall the prompt action by Prime Minister of India Hon. Shri Narendra Modi ji in sending the rescue and relief teams, both civil and military, to Nepal within hours of the first earthquake under “Operation Maitri”. We received spontaneous and generous relief supplies including food, medicine, tents and blankets from the Government and people of India, including non-government, religious and private sector organisations as well as from the individuals. This proves that our friendship remains firm even during difficult times.

I equally appreciate the participation from India at the level of Minister for External Affairs in the International Conference on Nepal’s Reconstruction held on 25 June 2015. While assuring continued cooperation in Nepal’s reconstruction, India pledged one billion US dollars, one fourth of it as Grant. The pledge at the conference of substantive contribution to the post-earthquake reconstruction of Nepal by India is testimony to the strong bond of friendship and cooperation existing between Nepal and India.

In the context of Nepals’ post-earthquake disaster needs and reconstruction plan, we count on India’s continued support, both from government and private sector, in rebuilding the infrastructure destroyed by the earthquake.

It may be pertinent to mention here that though the effect of earthquake on tourism infrastructure was not so significant and key areas such as Lumbini, Chitwan, the Annapurna trekking route, etc., are unaffected and safe to visit. There has been a significant drop in tourism. I also wish to state that though 14 out of 75 districts of Nepal were severely impacted by the earthquakes, the international airport, all domestic airports, and almost all highways are in operation. There is no health problem reported attributed to the quake. Thus, it is fully safe to visit Nepal.

On a different note, I am glad to state that Nepal and India enjoy excellent bilateral relations based on cordiality, goodwill, mutual respect and cooperation. I also take note with satisfaction that geographical proximity, extensive economic linkages, shared historical, religious, and socio-cultural affinity as well as wider people-to-people contact have further enriched these relations.

The visit to Nepal by Hon. Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modiji in August last year, after a gap of 17 years at the level of Prime Minister, has created a new momentum in our multi-dimensional relations. His address in Nepal’s Constituent Assembly where he said “Humaare sambandh kagaz ki kashtiyon se aagey nahi badhe hain, Humaare sambandh dilon ke dasstan kahate hain!” showed his tremendous good will towards Nepal and won the hearts of the Nepali people. Prior to the PM’s visit, the Joint Commission at the Foreign Minister level was also reactivated. As good friends we are equally committed to bringing our relations to a newer height.

Development assistance received from India has helped in both infrastructure and human resource development for key projects in much needed sectors. India is Nepal’s largest trade partner, largest source of foreign investment and of tourist arrivals. The private sectors and business communities of the two countries have played vital role in consolidating and strengthening our relations. However, I feel that the current level of interactions does not reflect our full potentials. Many areas still remain untapped. We are eager to invite the Indian investors to come and invest in Nepal.

Despite our long and diverse economic relations, the ever-growing trade deficit remains a matter of concern for us. Nepal’s trade deficit with India needs to be corrected in the interest of both the economies. As we are eager to increase the volume of trade between our two countries, we should also ensure that it is sustainable.

I consider that increased Indian investment, increase in the number of products being exported from Nepal, simplification of process related to trade transaction, relaxation of rules of origin and duty free access of Nepalese products is critical to address Nepal’s trade deficit.

It is encouraging to note that with a view to promoting, facilitating, expanding and diversifying trade between the two countries and encouraging collaboration in economic development, Nepal and India have signed BIPPA. To give further momentum to bilateral trade, Agreement for the Avoidance of Double Taxation and Prevention of Fiscal Evasion with respect to Taxes on Income has also been signed. There is equality of treatment for foreign and indigenous investors in Nepal.

The signing of Power Trade Agreement on 21 October 2014 has enabled cooperation in the power sector, including developing transmission interconnections, grid connectivity, and power exchange and trading through the governmental, public and private enterprises of the two countries on mutually acceptable terms. I am especially pleased to note the progress that has been made by the establishment of the Joint Executive Committee of the Pancheswar Development Authority. The Pancheswar High Dam Project has been a dram project for me since the signing of the Mahakali Treaty almost two decades ago when I was Prime Minister. People living in both banks and downstream of the Mahakali River stand to benefit a lot from the construction of this high dam as it has the potential to generate 6,500 MW of hydroelectricity and will also irrigate hundreds of thousands of hectares as well as control floods. This project will herald in a new era for people living of both neighbouring nations.

The Project Development Agreements, that have also been signed, further demonstrate an upswing in mutually beneficial cooperation. The signing of MoU last year on Tourism Cooperation and the Motor Vehicle Agreement between the two countries has paved the way for promoting tourism. I would also like to reiterate that mutual economic benefits, especially investment in trade and tourism will be greatly increased by the road connectivity that will be enhanced between our two nations by the construction of the Fast Track Highway that will link Kathmandu to the plain areas. I hope to see the construction of the Nijgadh Airport with the cooperation of the Indian Government in the same spirit and speed. I am happy to note that support to both these projects were especially mentioned by your External Affairs Minister Honourable Shrimati Sushma Swaraj ji during the donor conference in Kathmandu last month.

I believe that, in addition to strengthening bilateral mechanisms, emphasis should be laid on better connectivity – physical, institutional, and people to people – which serves as a bridge between the two countries and peoples including economic transactions. No doubt, Nepal’s location gives it an important role to facilitate wider connectivity in this dynamic region.

As the largest and vibrant democracy in the world, India has consistently nurtured democratic values and norms. I appreciate the achievements made by India in economic, social, scientific and other frontiers in the recent years. I admire the policy measures taken by India that have led to consistently high economic growth rate despite multiple global crises. Since India is rising as a major emerging global economic power, Nepal looks forward to a closer and intensive collaboration with such a vibrant economy so as to ensure a higher degree of prosperity for us.

India’s rise as a technologically highly advanced country of the world and Prime Minister Shri Modiji’s offer of the SAARC satellite as a gift for this region is a much appreciated as great initiative for mutual benefits from applied space science technology. The policy of India to promote cordial ties with countries in the neighbourhood has generated a sense of respect and euphoria in South Asia. Both Regional and Sub-Regional processes are gaining desired momentum in South Asia. Neighbourhood-first policy of India has yielded positive results and I welcome the emerging trends in relationship.

In this context, the business community from both countries can play important role, through enduring partnership and mutually beneficial activities, in the years to come. I am confident that the business leaders and industrialists from India will find Nepal an attractive investment destination and the Nepalese entrepreneurs the most reliable business partners. There are immense potentials for the development of hydropower projects, tourism, mining, forestry and agro-based industries as well as the construction sector particularly roads, transmission lines, airports and other infrastructure.

India has been supportive to Nepal’s democratic process with tremendous goodwill and solidarity. As Nepalese people strive to achieve a democratic, inclusive and prosperous society, I believe India would continue to extend its cooperation and support

I would like to stop my remarks at thus juncture and thank you all for your patience. Thank you!

South Asia
Eminent Persons' Lecture Series - Lecture by HE Mr Evan Garcia on "Issues of South China Sea and Future Prognosis: A Philippine Perspective" July 16, 2015 Evan P. Garcia Speeches and Lectures

About the Speaker

Evan P. Garcia is Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs, Department of Foreign Affairs, Republic of the Philippines


I would like to thank the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses for the kind invitation to be part of today’s discussion.

I am immensely pleased and honored to join the list of Eminent Persons who have delivered lectures before and interact with the distinguished fellows and associates of this Institute on important and relevant issues.

Dialogue and discussion

I cannot overemphasize the importance of dialogue and the need to provide a venue for the open discussion of difficult and sensitive subjects.

Through dialogue and discussion, we can hope to gain a fuller understanding and better appreciation of the immense challenges that confront and confound nations and the international community.

In the multiplicity of perspectives and in the discussion of diverse ideas, we can seek and identify points of convergence and common action.

Indeed, even opposing views do not necessarily lead parties to a standstill. Neithershould they lead to a standoff. On the contrary, when properly harnessed and framed, divergent views – for the willing and for those with an open mind - can create trust, mutual understanding and the political space for moving forward together.

Through genuine dialogue and forthright discussion, we avoid the needless clash brought about by intransigent positions and – together - harness the power of collective critical thinking.

Certainly, the ASEAN-India Centre and the Institute of Defence and Security Analyses play this critical and vital role: In encouraging the open exchange of ideas, the Centre and Institute serve as thought drivers that help inform both foreign policy makers and the public alike.

In this context, I welcome this opportunity to share with you the Philippine perspective on issues on the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea.

Asia: New Realities and Evolving Challenges

Asia has undergone and continues to undergo fundamental changes that have invited the world’s renewed attention and focus.

Despite the diversity and differences in political and economic systems, it has transformed itself into a vibrant region thatnow encompasses almost half of the world’s population, threeof the world’s top 10 economies (China, Japan and India), more than a fifth of the world’s GDP, a third of the world’s exports and almost half of the world’s maritime tonnage.

Should Asia sustain the momentum of its growth , the region is projected to achieve an even greater role as an epicenter of global prosperity by 2050, producing over half of the world’s GDP and accounting for half of the world’s output, trade and investment, by that time according to the Asian Development Bank.

Indeed, the objectives of achieving progress and prosperity in Asia are becoming less and less aspirational in nature and the desire to further strengthen economic performance is becoming more and more a defining basis for closer relations between countries in the region.

But while Asia’s economic ascent appears on track, China’s recent stock market problem notwithstanding, serious challenges remain and the onward advancement can be derailed.

Political insecurity and simmering tensions within the region threaten Asia’s dynamism. The situation in the DPRK remains a continuing concern and disputes over territory and maritime entitlements – including in the South China Sea and the Philippines’ portion of it, the West Philippine Sea- are becoming red flags for possible flashpoints.

That the power relations in the Asian region continue to be in a state of flux complicates attempts to address both traditional and emerging challenges to stability in the region.We are witnessing now the new reality of a regional architecture with an increasing number of players and stakeholders being reconstructed and built along many lines of engagement.

We see the rise of China that has stronger economic clout, greater political influence and developing military might; a United States that has rebalanced itself to Asia and is reinforcing its position as a Pacific power; a resurgent Japan that is reassessing its own self-defense posture; an India that is looking and acting East; a Russia that is increasing its capabilities in the region; and an ASEAN that is on its way to establishing its own Economic Community.

Against this backdrop of relations, the imperatives for economic interdependence provide the driving incentive for nations to be drawn together, but the compulsion to assert sovereign interests at the same time also acts as apowerful force keeping certain regional shareholders apart. Nowhere is the interplay of these factors more evident and critical than in the South China Sea.

Economic progress alongside geopolitical security tensions, this is the East Asian dichotomy, our new reality with which we must all grapple.

South China Sea: Resources and Access

Asia’s economic success rides heavily on the freedom of navigation and overflight of its waters, particularly in the South China Sea.

Both commercial and naval vessels ply these waters serving as a crucial nautical highway, the South China Sea is nothing short of being a vital artery in connecting and integrating production bases and markets.

Consider the following:

  • As a semi-enclosed sea, the SCS provides rich fishing grounds for the nationals of littoral states. Over 500 million people in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines live within 100 miles of the SCS. Many of them depend on the SCS for sustenance and livelihood.
  • The SCS currently accounts for one-tenth of the world’s global fisheries catch and hosts a multi-billion dollar fishing industry. The SCS also has ecological importance. The coral reefs in the SCS provide breeding ground for high-value fisheries and support the sustainability of the waters as fishing grounds.
  • The SCS serves as trade channels and economic lifelines used for global commercial shipping energy transportation and naval fleets.
  • Its importance as a Sea Lane of Communication (SLOC) cannot be over-stated: By cargo tonnage, more than half of the world’s merchant fleet passes through SCS; around 40,000 ships pass through the SCS every year. Sea traffic is three times that of the Suez Canal and 15 times that of the Panama Canal.
  • For international trade shipping in the SCS, goods volume of raw material and food takes up more than 90% of total freight volume.
  • The SCS is one of the most important energy trade routes in the world with over a third of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through it annually. Large quantities of coal from Australia and Indonesiaalso pass through the SCS to markets around the world, especially to China, Japan and India. These coal shipments include both steam coal used for generating electricity and process heat as well as metallurgical coal that is a key ingredient in primary steel production.
  • The SCS is said to have11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves.

South China Sea: The Stakes Involved

Clearly, the interests of many nations come to a head in the SCS. Given the resources and the access issues involved, exercising the ability to explore, develop and utilize the resources therein – or preventing others from doing so - constitutes a major point of sovereign concern for many nations.

The dispute in the South China Sea - rooted in conflicting territorial claims over islands, rocks and reefs above water at high tide as well as conflicting maritime claims over maritime zones –directly involve Brunei Darussalam, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Viet Nam, and the Chinese province of Taiwan.

Increasingly aggressive, belligerent and expansive behavior by one claimant, in particular, namely China, is provocative and further complicates an already tense milieu.

Beijing’s recent actions are clearly intended to change the status quo in the South China Sea to its unilateral advantage.

China asserts “indisputable sovereignty” over the islands and waters of almost the entire South China Sea as seen in its 9-dashed line claim.

These 9-dashes - with no corresponding fixed coordinates - form a U-shaped area of the South China Sea. These encompass and enclose almost 90% of the entire South China Sea. China’s 9-dash line claim seeks to convert the South China Sea into Beijing’s lake.

Asserting its “indisputable sovereignty” over the 9-dashed line area, China is preventing other countries from exercising their maritime rights over South China Sea’s waters which otherwise would have been allowed under the United Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

As we all know, UNCLOS provides for the rights and responsibilities of nations with regard to the world’s waters. UNCLOS was established precisely to give order to the use of the world’s waters and to regulate the behavior of States in the use of these waters.

With 166 States Parties, UNCLOS is considered the constitution of the world’s oceans, adherence to the principles and provisions of which are key to the sustainable and orderly use of the world’s waterways, including in the South China Sea.

UNCLOS prescribes the behavior and provides the rights and entitlements of littoral states and other stakeholders in various zones – from the territorial sea, to the contiguous zone, to the 200 nautical mile-exclusive economic zone, the continental shelf and in the areas beyond national jurisdiction.

Yet with its 9-dash line assertion in the South China Sea, Chinaeffectively appropriates to itself the enjoyment and exercise of maritime rights in the islands and features and all the waters surrounding them, to the exclusion and detriment of the littoral states’ and even of states desiring innocent passage or overflight.

In plain and simple terms, the 9-dash lines has this effect on the maritime rights of the littoral states in the South China Sea: The Philippines loses about 80% of its EEZ facing the West Philippine Sea; Malaysia loses also about 80% of its EEZ facing the South China Sea, as well as most of its active gas and oil fields in the same area; Vietnam on the other hand loses about 50% of its total EEZ; Brunei Darussalam loses about 90% of its total EEZ; and Indonesia loses about 30% of its EEZ facing the South China Sea in Natuna Islands, whose surrounding waters comprise the largest gas field in Southeast Asia.

Recently, China has likewise strongly asserted itself in the South China Sea by accelerating the building of artificial islands through massive reclamation over disputed submerged features. Now, China’s clear intent to build on these artificial islands and to militarize the area has become apparent.

This has resulted in counter-actions from other statesthat do not recognize China’s assertion of sovereignty over these features.

An unstable South China Sea does not advance the interest of any claimant state nor of the international community. Instability in the South China Sea is not a permanent condition that the Philippines desires. What the Philippines aspires to is to bring greater stability and more predictable behavior in the South China Sea based on the rule of law.

It is with this goal in mind that the Philippines is undertaking a two-pronged approach to the situation in the South China Sea grounded firmly on adherence to the rule of law: firstly,tension reduction; and secondly, peaceful settlement of disputes.

Philippine diplomacy and tension reduction

The Philippines seeks to reduce tension between and among the claimants of the South China Sea and is harnessing its entire diplomatic machinery to meaningfully engage stakeholders in bilateral and multilateral fora.

As a founding member of the United Nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Philippines is committed to easing friction between and among states in dispute.

In disputes, conflict should never be considered inevitable. Disputes should be an opportunity to engage concerned parties in dialogue.

In the South China Sea issue, the Philippines placesimportance on the building of a rules-based regional architecture, given the complexity of the issue and the number of stakeholders involved both within and outside the South China Sea.

While the region continues to evolve, ASEAN’s central role – and its relations with dialogue partners – will continue to be vital. And indeed, ASEAN has provided the opportunity for the Philippines to pursue the reduction of tension in the South China Sea.

The Declaration on the Code of Conduct (DOC) in the South China Sea brought ASEAN and China together to determine ways of addressing the simmering tension in the area.

While there is room for greater positive and practical results based on the DOC, the timely conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea remains unattainable owing to China’s seeming reluctance to engage in frank and open discussion through multilateral negotiations.

The Philippines is nevertheless committed to pursue this track.

Diplomacyand the Peaceful Settlement of Disputes

The Philippines believes firmly that the international legal framework exists to provide better clarity to issues in dispute and that, equally as important, this international legal framework exists to encourage States to participate meaningfully and achieve the peaceful settlement of disputes.

The Philippines places great faith on the equalizing power of international law. Resort to the rule of law allows small countries, such as my own, to stand on an equal footing with wealthier and more powerful States, confident in the conviction that right prevails over might.

As such, the Philippines is undertaking the legal track, provided for under UNCLOS, to seek better clarity of the issues involved in the South China Sea.

I wish to point out that we resorted to arbitration after our many bilateral exchanges with China to resolve our dispute did not prosper. China has unreasonably insisted that the Philippines must recognize and accept its sovereignty over the entire South China Sea before meaningful discussion of other issues could take place.

It has been claimed as well – almost as gospel truth by certain Chinese officials and academicians – that Asians do not go to court against each other. Singapore’s Ambassador at large Tommy Koh pointed out that this is incorrect, citing that Southeast Asian countries have a positive track record of referring their disputes to the international legal process, among them: The PreahVihear case between Cambodia and Thailand; The Sipadan and Ligatan case between Indonesia and Malaysia; The PedraBranca/PulauBatuPuteh case between Malaysia and Singapore; and, the Myanmar Bangladesh case.

Additionally, Ambassador Koh also cited the positive attitude of South Asia towards dispute settlement, with India leading the way.

Former ITLOS President ShunjiYanai shares Ambassador Koh’s observation, saying that based on the cases submitted to the ICJ and ITLOS, Asian States have become important and active clients of third-party settlement procedures, especially in the field of law of the sea, implying how important the rule of law at sea is for states in Asia.

The Philippines too is mindful that under the 1982 Manila Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes, recourse to judicial settlement of legal disputes, should not be considered an unfriendly act between States.

With these objectives in mind, the Philippines brought the issue of the South China Sea for arbitration under the UNCLOS.

Such an effort deserves support of stakeholders and the international community because the case seeks to clarifyissues on the rights and entitlements of States regarding in the South China Sea.

The arbitration case likewise deserves support because the proceedings will serve to strengthen the role of UNCLOS as the constitution of the world’s oceans. Resort to arbitration will also strengthen the international legal regime upon which more and more states have been resorting too.

As I indicated earlier, India, in particular, has shown the way for Member States to adhere to the rule of law and to seek the peaceful settlement of international disputes.

In bringing the case of the Maritime Boundary in the Bay of Bengal to court, India has respected fully the decision of the ITLOS.

Apart from this case, India has, by its own efforts also sought to settle border disputes peacefully as in the case of the Land Border Agreement between Bangladesh and India which was recently ratified.

The South China Sea dispute, because of its global significance, has attracted increasing concern from the international community as well. ASEAN, the EU, some individual European countries, the G-7, the United States, Japan and India have all expressed such concerns. They have also called for the reduction of tensions, for the avoidance of destabilizing activities and for the peaceful settlement of disputes.

The Philippine Arbitration Case

In bringing the case to arbitration, the Philippines wishes to make it clear that is not seeking a resolution of territorial sovereignty issues.

The Philippines understands that the jurisdiction of the tribunal convened under UNCLOS is limited to questions that concern the law of the sea.

In bringing the case to arbitration, the Philippines holds that the China’s 9-dash line claims are illegal, expansive and arbitrary.

The Philippines claims are as follows:

  1. China is not entitled to exercise what it refers to as “historic rights” over the waters, seabed and subsoil beyond the limits of its entitlements under the Convention
  2. The so-called nine dash line has no basis whatsoever under international law insofar as it purports to define the limits of China’s claim to “historic rights”;
  3. The various maritime features relied upon by China as a basis upon which to assert its claims in the South China Sea are not islands that generate entitlement to an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. Rather, some are “rocks” within the meaning of Article 121, paragraph 3; others are low-tide elevations; and still others are permanently submerged. As a result, none are capable of generating entitlements beyond 12NM, and some generate no entitlements at all. China’s recent massive reclamation activities cannot lawfully change the original nature and character of these features
  4. China has breached the Convention by interfering with the Philippines’ exercise of its sovereign rights and jurisdiction; and,
  5. China has irreversibly damaged the regional marine environment, in breach of UNCLOS, by its destruction of coral reefs in the South China Sea, including areas within the Philippines’ EEZ, by its destructive and hazardous fishing practices, and by its harvesting and poaching of endangered species.

Philippine Aspirations

In pursuing this arbitration case, the Philippines believes that a ruling will benefit not only the direct stakeholders but also the entire international community.

By ruling on the validity of the 9-dash lines, the maritime entitlements for the littoral states and those that depend on the South China Sea as an international waterway will be clarified.

This is an initiative, therefore, that deserves the support of the entire international community.

It is important for all concerned friends, including India, to do their utmost to promote a regional security architecture built squarely on the rule of law, and in the case of the South China Sea, on the UNCLOS.

The dialogue-centered approach espoused by India to security cooperation in our region remains relevant, bearing in mind the diversity and plurality of security systems in the Asia-Pacific.

That India has an important role to play in this regard has been recognized. In fact, India has been urged by ASEAN to assume a greater role in the regional security architecture.

India recognized this cap and launched its Look East Policy over two decades ago. This was followed by the Act East Policy which India announced recently.

India’s efforts to implement its Act East Policy through concrete action is commendable, particularly one promoting greater connectivity between our regions, including through the successful implementation of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity.

The day when our people travel more frequently between our countries will be the day when India and ASEAN will cease being relative strangers to one another.

Indeed, only when we join together in the endeavors that strengthen the international legal framework and encourage nations to resort to the mechanisms identified can we hope to have a more peaceful and stable world.

It is during these times that a country that is known for erecting walls must recognize the importance of building bridges of dialogue.

The Philippines’commitment to the rule of law and the peaceful settlement of disputes remains steadfast.

India can count on the Philippines to advance this principled position, as well.

The Philippines is confident of India’s steadfastness in supporting the rule of law and the peaceful settlement of disputes.

South East Asia and Oceania
An Assessment of Organisational Change in the Indian Army May 08, 2015 Vivek Chadha 1030 to 1300 hrs Fellows' Seminar

Chairperson: Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar (Retd.)
External Discussants: Brig. Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.), Brig. Rahul Bhonsle (Retd.)
Internal Discussants: Gp. Capt. Ajey Lele (Retd.), Col. Vijai Singh Rana

The paper analysed military change in the context of the Indian Army, with specific focus on organisational innovation and change. It specifically looked at two case studies – the restructuring of the army after the Sino-Indian war of 1962 and the drive towards mechanisation based on the 1975 expert committee recommendations. The paper then assessed the drivers for organisational change in the Indian Army, with the further aim of deriving policy recommendations which could be apt in light of the ongoing transformation of the Indian Army.

The paper identified operational environment and technology as the principle drivers for change. It stated that successful change required supportive political leadership, professional and visionary military leadership, long-term strategic assessment, strong institutional structures and follow up action. The author used the two case studies in relation to conventional threats. The first related to changes post 1962, which led to an increase in the size of the army by almost 33 per cent. It also saw the raising of divisions which were tailored to the needs of mountain warfare.

The second case study assesses the 1975 committee recommendations which were successful in aiding the army’s drive towards mechanisation. Not only was the organisational structure transformed, the resultant innovations had a lasting impact on the strategic thought of the army, which continued to guide subsequent adaptations thereafter. The author also pointed to pertinent aspects related to organisational change after the 1999 Kargil conflict and Operation Parakram in 2001, besides noting changes related to the ongoing transformation.

Major Points of Discussion and Suggestions to the Author

  • It was pointed out that political support for carrying out military change was very crucial. Top level political intervention was important to achieve unity of thought and unity of purpose. This was particularly relevant in the Indian context where turf war was a glaring feature of the armed forces and the absence of the Chief of Defence Staff affected unity of thought and action. It was noted that political leadership in India has been more than encouraging in this regard. Though lacking an institutional mechanism of interface between top political leadership and the armed forces, many chiefs have successfully won over political support for bringing about organisational change.
  • The aim of military change should be to have a capability-based force and threat-based force existing simultaneously to deal with the challenges being posed in an era of strategic uncertainty.
    Apart from operational environment and technology being drivers of change, it was noted that post-1962, changes were largely driven by doctrinal shift in thinking.
  • A crucial area of military change related to professional military education and training. The aim of military education and training should be to train for certainty and educate for uncertainty to deal with broad military challenges and threats.
  • The absence of a national security strategy has led to the rise of service-specific doctrines, which are linear in approach and lack a broad national outlook.
  • The sense of the house was that the Indian army fought bravely in the 1962 war. If not for some strategic miscalculations and a degree of misfortune, Indian army would have turned the tables on the Chinese despite facing all odds. Moreover, the engagement of Air Force would have significantly altered the course of the war. Most importantly, the war did not shatter the morale of the Indian Army, contrary to the common perception because our soldiers fought fearlessly and ferociously. It was largely the failure of top level military/political leadership. The Indian army would do well to look inward for its failures as this will pave the way for course correction.
  • It was suggested that the paper should look into the aspect of organisational change pertaining to staff. The teeth-to-tail ratio, recruitment policy and restructuring of the organisation merited the attention of the author.
  • The nature of change should be analysed in order to understand whether change is reactive in nature or whether it was shaping the battlefield favourably.
  • The Kargil review committee was the first attempt at evolving a comprehensive national security system engaging all three services. The Krishna Rao report primarily dealt with the army. In an era of jointness, efforts to bring about change in the army must find a resonance among the other services. A tri-service approach looking at change would bring far greater dividends than a service-specific approach. In this context, post-Kargil reform process needed to be better analysed.
  • The Indian army aimed to achieve the capacity of network-enabled to network-centric warfare capability but has not been able to do so. It should be explored as to what are the reasons behind our inability to achieve this capability. Similarly, the aspect of cyber warfare should be included in the paper to understand the phenomenon of change in its entirety.

Report prepared by Amit Kumar, Research Assistant, IDSA.

Terrorism & Internal Security

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