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Title	Date	Author	Time	Event	Body	Research Area	Topics	File attachments	Image
Monday Morning Webinar on Climate Summit: Taking Stock	November 16, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha Centre Coordinator Non-Traditional Security Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses spoke on the topic "Climate Summit: Taking Stock" at the Monday Morning Webinar (held on Tuesday) on 16th November, 2021. The webinar was chaired by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Centre Coordinator, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre. Deputy Director General, and members of the institute attended the webinar. Executive Summary The impacts of climate change are being felt in every sphere. With rising temperatures and the world dangerously hurtling towards thresholds limits of 1.5°C to 2°C, there has been an urgent need to deal with the situation. The recently held COP 26 in Glasgow aimed to address climate emergency with set of rules and obligations for states. Various issues such as climate finance, nationally determined contributions, ‘phasing out’ and ‘phasing down’ of coal and fossil fuels, deadlines for net-zero emissions and much more were discussed. Detailed Report The chair, Dr. Nayan highlighted the many newly emerged ‘terms’ and ‘ambiguities’ during the COP 26 summit and asked the speaker to enlighten the audience with these terminologies. He also evoked the speaker to contextualize climate change before analyzing the joint statement made at COP 26. In his opening remarks, Dr. Sinha emphasized that climate change is well and truly an emergency and the world is grappling on how to deal with it, mitigate it and more importantly, how to adapt to climate change. These as the speaker explained remain highly contested ever since the signing of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. Commenting on the UNFCCC, Dr. Sinha mentioned that it is a multilateral treaty styled as framework convention in which the parties acknowledge the existence of a problem (climate change) and commit to cooperative actions. It was framed in such a manner that as the convention evolves, it would move towards a series of protocols and agreements that would make it more progressive, and then finally an acceptance of stringent obligations would come into force. The Conference of Parties (COP) to UNFCC is the apex decision-making body that takes decisions and lays out pathways to deal with climate change implications. Successive COP summits since 1995, as the speaker explained, has seen a convergence towards climate obligations. Dr. Sinha then gave a conceptual, intellectual and epistemological understanding of climate change. He mentioned that humanity is currently living in an informal geological epoch of Anthtopocene, in which human activities directly and indirectly has altered the entire composition of the global atmosphere and has significantly impacted the climate ecosystem. He further mentioned that the developed countries, in particular, have, despite the evidences, been in denial of their high per capita emission trajectory that they have consciously undertaken since the post-industrial revolution. Talking about the colonial projects of resource extraction and colonization of landscape by the Europeans, particularly the Dutch and the British in the 17th and 18th centuries, Dr. Sinha reminded the audience of the colonial powers destructive strategies that massively transformed the landscapes for control and profit. He also mentioned that the world has inherited and become habitual to unsustainable extraction and consumption of resources that is justified through development, comfort and poverty eradication. The speaker categorically stated that if the world needs to look at the future and has to limit the global temperature rise between 1.5° C to 2°C, then the entire system of production, management and governance needs to be transformed. This also includes changes in behavior, consumption pattern and lifestyle alteration. Commenting on the nature of statements made by world leaders at COP summits, Dr. Sinha observed that some are profound while some are business-as-usual but some remarkably transformational. He categorized Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements at COP 26 as transformational as other world leaders failed to make any big impression. Interestingly, the speaker highlighted Indira Gandhi’s sensational speech at the United Nations Conference on the Human Environmental (UNCHE) in 1972 in Stockholm, in which she mentioned, “are not poverty and need the greatest polluter?” He said that this statement is rightly being recalled even today by Indian climate negotiators. He clearly underlined that the poor matter and, therefore, development is the key for India. While the climate challenges are unique the politics around it is familiar. Explaining this Dr Sinha observed that the climate summits are not alien to linkage politics and power dynamics and has often seen realignment of forces and groupings to emphasize respective countries needs and requirements. It is for this reason that the semantics of the final text of the COP summits are intensely contested. He cited the example of India-China insistence to ‘phase down’ rather than ‘phase out’ of coal in the final text draft of COP 26 summit. The speaker thereon enlightened the audience to the overall acceptance of climate science which he noted is influencing the politics to search for possibilities. He quoted, ‘if politics is the art of possible, science is the art of soluble’. Focusing on the key elements of the COP 26 Glasgow, Dr. Sinha highlighted the following: A stronger action to achieve 1.5° C limit. Nations to strengthen their climate action plans and nationally determined contributions (NDC). To ‘phase down’ the uses of unabated coal power and ‘phase out’ inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Developed countries were asked to double the finance for adaptation by 2025 from the 2019 levels. An updated time till 2023 has been given to developed countries to fulfil their commitment of releasing promised $100 billion climate fund to developing countries. Developing countries like India are allowed to use carbon credits for meeting their first NDC targets. Developed countries can buy carbon credits to meet its own emission reduction targets, till 2025. Focusing on Prime Minister Modi’s Panchamrit at COP 26, Dr. Sinha firmly believed that India’s intention has been to be part of the solution and not the problem and therefore the mixture of five nectar elements of India’s climate action is extremely noteworthy. This raises India’s credibility as a climate-conscious country and proves India’s determination and value of commitment to climate action. The key elements of Panchamrit was then explained: India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. India will meet 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030. India will reduce the total projected carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes from now till 2030. Till 2030 India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 per cent. Finally, by the year 2070 India will achieve the target of net-zero emissions. Dr. Sinha emphasized that India is now the driver of climate change narrative, unlike the previous times when India was seen as climate denier. He mentioned that India’s actions are immediate (2020-2030) unlike many countries including EU who have made future net-zero targets the mantra. it is the current decade itself that defines those. Finally, in his concluding remarks Dr. Sinha mentioned that it is important to note that given all the difficulties that prevail, hope will always remain in bringing changes that the world requires in near future but hope needs to be backed by deeds and actions and not mere pledges. Thanking Dr. Sinha for his enlightening lecture, the chair made several critically important comments. Dr. Nayan mentioned that currently, the climate summit is moving away from the semiotic rhetorical structure to a more norm building process. He talked about climate realignment that is taking place and critically highlighted the role of OPEC countries (currently led by Russia) in the climate debate and argued that these countries still remains the custodian of the world’s fossil fuels and how these oil producing countries respond and shape the climate change debate will be interesting to observe. Comments and observations from the participants followed thereon: Bipandeep Sharma commented on the issue of sea-level rise and its impact on the small island territories and states in the Indian Ocean Region. Dr. Nihar Nayak observed that COP26 was an action-oriented summit. Referring to all the historical pledges made by the developed countries, he highlighted that the developing countries are very dissatisfied regarding the unmet climate commitments of the developed countries. He also highlighted the number of groups that emerged within the countries at COP summits and thereon mentioned a significant transition from climate mitigation to climate adaptation in COP 26 summit. He further highlighted the number of agreements signed at COP 26 some of which included methane emission reductions, reduction in deforestation and transitions to net-zero carbon emissions. Finally, commenting on India’s position on COP 26, Dr. Nayak mentioned that COP 26 is basically a commitment and a collective responsibility that each state needs to take. Col. (Dr.) DPK Pillay in his remarks highlighted India’s position on climate change. He mentioned that much of the bulk of carbon emission has been led by the developed world. He asserted that India being the 7th largest country, is barely responsible 3 per cent of emissions that take place. He mentioned that India is far ahead of developed countries in reducing carbon emissions in terms of the solar alliance, afforestation and renewable energy. Capt. Anurag Bisen (Indian Navy) mentioned that the Glasgow Deal fails to hold into account the developed countries commitment to climate financing. He also asserted that there has been a general tendency to shift the climate narrative against India in the climate summit but India has maintained its firm stance. Dy. Director General Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd.), gave his observations and highlighted that with the rising temperatures and sea-level rise most of the island territories would be submerged underwater in times to come. He also highlighted glacier melt and breaking away of massive as a reflection of climate urgency. Commenting on the role of the Indian Army and its contributions to address the issue of climate change, Maj. Gen. Bakshi asserted that a lot has changed in the last 20 years. He underlined several afforestation initiatives by the army and a significant transition from coal and kerosene-based heating systems (at higher altitudes along the India-China and India-Pakistan border) to LPG based heating system. Question and Answers. In his response, Dr. Sinha re-emphasized on the role of science and technology and its interface with climate change. Finally, Dr. Sinha mentioned that the world can have different pathways to deal with climate change but the overall vision is quiet clear that climate change is an emergency. Dr. Sinha concluded that targets are still achievable provided pledges turn to deeds, it requires a collective action of states but more importantly a change of mindset of western developed countries. Key Takeaways: Climate change is now an emergency and needs immediate collective action of states. In successive COP summits since 1995, an upward graph of stringent obligations have been employed to the framework of convention. Humanity is currently living in a geological epoch of Anthtopocene, the roots lie in high per capita emission trajectory of the developed countries. There has been a series of realignment of forces between states at COP summits. India-China’s insisted on ‘phase down’ rather than ‘phase out’ of coal in the final text of COP 26 summit. COP 26 has asked countries to ‘phase down’ the uses of unabated coal power and ‘phase out’ inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Developed countries have been given the timeline 2023 to deliver on their commitment of promised $100 billion climate fund to developing countries. India has committed to its own approach of ‘Panchamrit' to address climate change. *************** Report prepared by Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.	Non-Traditional Security	Climate Change
Monday Morning Webinar – Coup in Sudan and Fallout	November 01, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Monday Morning Webinar – Coup in Sudan and Fallout November 01, 2021 In the Monday Morning Webinar held on November 01, 2021, Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Coordinator Africa, Latin America, Caribbean and United Nations Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on the topical “Coup in Sudan and Fallout”. Dr. M. S. Prathibha, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the institute attended the webinar. Executive Summary The webinar shed light on the conditions triggering the Coup in Sudan, its internal as well as regional impact and provided an insight on the likely implications it holds for India. It was assessed that the coup would worsen the domestic situation, reverse all the gains made by Sudan over the last two years and tensions may flare up in the region. The close ties shared between Sudan and India; and the role played by other external powers in the country was also highlighted. The importance of restoring civilian rule in Sudan in the near future was underscored by the Speaker. Detailed Report The Chair, Dr. M. S. Prathibha, began the webinar by sharing introductory details about the coup in Sudan. On October 25, 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the military chief and head of Transitional Sovereignty Council, dismissed the government and declared a state of emergency. The Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was temporarily detained and is currently under house arrest. The Chair stated that these events had quashed hopes for a peaceful transition of power. She invited the Speaker to further discuss in detail the conditions that enabled the coup and explore prospects for a democratic transition in Sudan. At the outset, Ms. Ruchita Beri highlighted that General al-Burhan, the military chief has seized the power in the government, dissolved the transitional council, declared a state of emergency and imprisoned the civilian leaders. Referring to the previous failed coup attempt in September 2021, she emphasised that the current move by the military had sparked widespread protests in the country and condemnation across the world. She stated that African Union (AU) had suspended Sudan until it restored civil rule, and shed light on the responses of the United Nations, Arab League and some of the neighbouring countries. Ms. Beri assessed that the political crisis in Sudan would lead to worsening of the situation internally and externally. The speaker stated that the transitional authorities in Sudan consisted of members from the military and civilians from the Forces of Freedom and Change party (FFC). Identifying that tough economic reforms had led to deepening of differences within the FFC; she highlighted that tensions had been brewing in the political circles, pro-military protestors had held demonstrations and the Port of Sudan had been blocked by a tribal group with the help of the military. The speaker observed that economic crisis as well as acute shortage of food, currency and fuel was one of the reasons triggering the coup. Stating that the military leadership of the sovereign transitional council was slated to shift to a civilian leadership in November, she analysed that key items on the civilian agenda in the agreement also could have caused the military to act. She underscored that other causes for the coup could have been the civilian agenda of ensuring accountability on violation of Human Rights during the rule of President Bashir, vocal criticism of the army by Prime Minister Hamdok, the strict economic reforms and fear that Army might lose their control in the commercial sector. With regard to internal impact Ms. Beri remarked that the coup had reversed all progress that Sudan had made. Owing to its efforts to transition to a democracy, the country had recently begun to receive international financial assistance; all of which had been paused following the coup. The speaker underlined that the coup threatens Sudan’s fragile peace and would worsen the shattered economy leading to rise in unemployment. Referring to the external regional impact, Ms. Beri stated that tensions may flare up in the region. She assessed that the coup would inflame existing boundary and territorial disputes, influence the political dynamics surrounding the ‘Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project’, affect the Tigray crisis and increase the security concerns of the region. Ms. Beri shed light on the close historical ties shared between Sudan and India. She mentioned that India is invested in the energy sector of the country, has provided Lines of Credit, is a key development partner for Sudan, Sudan was a beneficiary under India’s Vaccine Maitri initiative and India was at the forefront of providing food aid to Sudan in November 2020. Stating the value of bilateral trade and that major brands like Tata and Mahindra are some of the companies present in Sudan, she said Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) withdrew its operations in 2020 owing to disagreements. The speaker observed that the Minister of State for External Affairs Shri. V Muraleedharan’s visit to Sudan on 18-19th October 2021 implies that India exercises leverage in the country. She shared that United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are close external partners to Sudan as they have business interests and are strategically linked in the war against Terrorism. Furthermore, Sudan has helped in fighting against the Houthi rebels and UAE is invested in the ports in Sudan. Ms. Beri underlined that although previously China shared close military relations with Sudan, it has in recent years diluted its economic partnership. Expressing concern about the future in Sudan, Ms. Beri stated that the coup could potentially increase internal chaos and regional conflicts would flare up. She concluded by underscoring the importance of restoring civilian rule in Sudan in the near future. Thanking the speaker for a comprehensive analysis and the valuable insights, the Chair called on Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, to share his remarks on the theme. Amb. Chinoy drew attention to and raised queries on the long term implications of the coup on India’s trading community and the possibility of the internal chaos in Sudan descending into a graver humanitarian crisis. He reflected on the likely scope of attention the international community would extend considering it is currently focused on the situation in Afghanistan. Amb. Sujan stated that security and drug consignments particularly at ports could be misused during times of chaos and collapsing government structure. He enquired about the likelihood of the Port of Sudan being used as staging point for arms and drugs. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), DDG, MP-IDSA, made a reference to the Sudanese military chief’s announcement on the appointment of a technocrat instead of an elected politician to lead the council. He remarked on the importance of countries evolving its own system of governance and stated the examples of Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. Comparing international response to the coup in Myanmar and underscoring the need for homegrown evolved system of governance, Maj. Gen. Bakshi asked the Speaker to share views on how the situation in Sudan would play out. In her response, Ms. Beri reiterated the security concerns and strategic importance of Sudan which is strategically located connecting the Sahel, Horn of Africa and the North of Africa. She emphasised that worsening situation in Sudan would impact the region as a whole. Regarding the Indian trading community in Sudan, she mentioned that Indian Embassy had issued a safety advisory to all Indians in Sudan and recalled earlier missions by India to evacuate Indians stuck in the conflict. The speaker stated that the Port of Sudan is currently blocked which would increase illegal trade in the future. Mentioning about India’s past defence cooperation with Sudan, she remarked that India may revive its diplomatic parlays with Sudan to help with the transition. To explain the reasons for appointment of a technocrat, Ms. Beri shed light on the commercial and political entrenchment of the military in Sudan and their fear of losing the existing control under a civilian rule. She mentioned about international and regional negotiation processes underway regarding Sudan. The webinar concluded with a vibrant and an engaging Q/A session which raised some interesting themes. Key highlights of the Q/A session were the inputs shared on the status of the civilian society in Sudan which is not a monolith and it’s potential to influence the politics; global opinion against the coup; failure of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to produce a presidential statement on the situation in Sudan due to opposition by Russia and China which could cause frictions in international response to the coup; the increasing magnitude of the protests by Sudanese nationals against the coup; implications of the coup on the larger regional geopolitics; the role of AU in bringing stability as Sudan and Ethiopia have become a theatre for geopolitical competition between West Asian powers like Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE; potential of a military governed Sudan becoming a partner of the Sunni bloc against Iran; implication of the coup on the agreement signed between Russia and Sudan to establish a naval base near the port of Sudan; future trajectory of Sudan-Israel ties and the likely flaring up of issues on the dynamics of Nile river water sharing. Report prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Webinar on Political Trends in Iraq and Challenge for Stability	October 11, 2021			Other	Event Report Ms Nagapushpa Devendra, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA, spoke on the topic “Political Trends in Iraq and Challenge for Stability” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 11 October 2021 at 10 am. The webinar was chaired by Dr Muddassir Quamar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Dr Lakshmi Priya, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA and Dr Jatin Kumar, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA participated as panellists. Executive Summary Ms Nagapushpa Devendra analysed the political trends and outcomes in Iraq, especially in light of the parliamentary elections held on 10 October 2021. Following a brief overview of the existing political situation, the speaker highlighted the latest electoral trends and political compositions grounded in the sectarian divisions. Furthermore, she underlined the economic turmoil and its major fallouts on the people which have influenced their political decisions. The presentation also dealt with India–Iraq relations and the areas of potential cooperation. Iraq’s relations with the other regional countries, the challenges that follow and its importance in maintaining regional stability were also analysed. Detailed Report Dr Muddassir Quamar in his introductory remarks stated that Iraq has been going through a difficult time since 2003, after the fall of Saddam Hussein. It is affected by identity-based politics grounded in sectarianism, religious extremism and ethnic and tribal divisions. In the last few years, it has also faced other difficult challenges, including COVID-19 pandemic, economic mismanagement and political turbulence and demonstrations which have further aggravated the political situation causing instability. Following a brief background along with the mention of the latest parliamentary elections held in Iraq on 10 October 2021, he handed over the floor to the speaker. Ms Nagapushpa Devendra started her presentation by giving a background of the political situation in Iraq since the defeat of the Islamic State (IS). She said that the first elections were held in 2018, but it was only in 2019 that a new government could be formed under Adel Abdul-Mahdi who was forced to resign in December 2019 after protests broke out against his government. Mustafa Al-Kadhimi became the prime minister in May 2020. She further discussed the 2019 Iraqi protests, namely Tishreen Movement, which stemmed from the disillusionment among Iraqis against the political system and governance failure. Their demands included an end to institutionalised corruption, electoral reforms, a government of technocrats and early elections. Ms Devendra stated a few reasons for Iraq’s early parliamentary elections including the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and price competition among the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Since Iraq’s economy is heavily dependent on revenue generated by oil export, it suffered greatly when oil prices were hit as a result of the price competition. All these factors, clubbed with the internal disturbance and the previously persisting economic and political situation pushed Iraqi leadership to hold early elections in 2021, which were originally scheduled for 2022. Before discussing the election results, Ms Devendra gave an overview of the reformed electoral laws introduced in 2021. The new laws have made it easier for smaller parties and independent candidates to contest the elections, although with certain pre-existing roadblocks. Ms Devendra discussed the participation of various political blocs such as Shia, Sunni and Kurds in October 2021 elections. According to her, the Sadrist Movement, backed by the prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, has a good chance of winning the largest Shiite vote. With regards to Sunni bloc, the competition is expected to take place between two major political groups, Civil Democratic Forces Alliance, headed by current parliament speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi and Azem Iraq Alliance, headed by businessman Khamis Al-Khanjar. Currently Sunni parties together hold 73 seats in the parliament and their leaders claim that it will reach 80–90 seats after the approval of 83 electoral districts. With regards to Kurdish bloc, the speaker opined that two political parties, namely, Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) may secure a majority of seats in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. In her view, the KDP coalition is expected to dominate in the Kurdish provinces of Erbil and Duhok. Apart from the above two parties, the Kurdistan coalition is another major Kurdish group. Ms Devendra said that in this election a great divide was seen among the Kurdish people, as observed by the campaigning methods. The speaker also mentioned the two newly formed political parties, namely, Harakat al-Waei and Hezbollah Brigades, which contested the parliamentary elections this year. She observed a change in the campaign agenda of the parties, wherein most of the candidates promised to fulfil the domestic needs of the Iraqis such as offering jobs, goods and services and infrastructural projects, to name a few. The speaker went on to elaborate on the possible outcomes of the election. Firstly, a likely division between the two major Shia parties, namely, Sadrist and Fatah can be foreseen. Secondly, the presidency is likely to go to the PUK as has happened in the previous elections. Thirdly, there may be an end of opposition from smaller parties in Kurdistan, since Patriotic Movement of Kurdistan has joined the largest opposition group namely Gorran Movement to solve its leadership crisis. Lastly, in order to be a part of the next government the Sunni and Kurdish parties will have to come together with the Shia victors. According to the speaker, regional and international actors want Kadhimi to continue as prime minister since Iraq has witnessed relative stability under his leadership. He initiated domestic reforms to create jobs and improve the living standard of Iraqi people. In addition, he brought together the key regional countries to discuss the developmental issues in the Baghdad Conference, held recently in Iraq. Ms Devendra discussed the challenges faced by Iraq under two heads namely, domestic and regional. The domestic challenges include the following. First, elections will yield a larger number of smaller blocs in the parliament, which would make government formation and decision-making difficult. Second, it will be a difficult task to deal with corruption and unemployment, undertake major reforms, prevent resurgence of ISIS and keep COVID-19 crisis under control. Third, asserting control over some of the pro-Iranian armed groups will pose another major problem. While discussing the regional challenges, she underlined that the US’ withdrawal of troops will be a major security challenge for the new Iraqi government. On China’s engagement with Iraq, the speaker said that China is working to integrate Iraq into its "predatory" Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The economic investments under the same initiative will not stabilise Iraq. According to her, anti-US actors in the country frame Chinese Belt and Road investments as a potential alternative to US economic support. Regarding Russia, the speaker said that its growing ties with the Iranian proxy militias in Iraq could threaten not only Iraqi stability but also US’ interests in Iraq and Syria. Ms Devendra elaborated on the various areas of India and Iraq engagements. India’s economic engagements with Iraq range from increased bilateral trade, India becoming a preferred medical help destination for Iraqis to participation of Iraqi pharmaceutical companies in Indian events. Furthermore, India and Iraq share common regional concerns over various countries such as Syria, Turkey and Iran, to name a few. India has also been actively participating in Iraq's political realm by extending support towards any initiative which strengthens Iraq’s democratic exercise. The speaker suggested various potential areas for strengthening India–Iraq relations. In her view, the areas which could be actively explored include developing trade agreement, establishing virtual platforms of outreach, India’s use of soft power in Iraq and undertaking capacity building of Iraqi security forces to counter terrorism. This would help ensure stability in Iraq which is of regional interest for West Asia and the global community. Following Ms Devendra’s reflection on Iraqi political scenario and elections, Dr Muddassir Quamar highlighted and summarised the major problems in Iraq such as that of the two-fold challenges faced by the current political leadership. These include the domestic economic and political turmoil and a significant influence of external powers in Iraq along with that of the armed militias within the country. He concluded by thanking Ms Devendra again for her valuable insights into the above-mentioned issues and then invited suggestions and questions from the other panellists namely Dr Jatin Kumar and Dr Lakshmi Priya who underlined the issue of the lower turnout as a result of voter’s disgruntlement against the ruling elites and lack of confidence in the political system. ************** Report prepared by Dr Jatin Kumar, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA** Download Complete [PDF]	Eurasia & West Asia
Round Table on India-US Defence Procurement and Cooperation	October 27, 2021 to October 28, 2021		1000 hrs	Round Table	The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the US-India Business Council (USIBC), Delhi, is organising a Round Table Meet. Venue: Room No. 005, Ground Floor, MP-IDSA Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA will deliver the welcome address. Download Programme Details [PDF]
Monday Morning Webinar on Implications of Enhancement of Area of Jurisdiction of BSF	October 25, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Event Report Dr Pushpita Das, Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Implications of Enhancement of Area of Jurisdiction of BSF” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 25 October 2021 at 10 am. The webinar was chaired by Dr Smruti S Pattanaik, Research Fellow MP-IDSA. Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy; Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, and scholars & members of the Institute attended the webinar. Executive Summary The Union Government on 11 October 2021 through a notification amended the BSF Act to enhance the jurisdiction of the Border Security Force (BSF) in States sharing border with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Notification increased the operational area of BSF from 15 kms to 50 kms in States of Punjab, West Bengal and Assam. In the North Eastern States of Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya and in Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh no change has been made as the whole area comes under the jurisdiction of the BSF. However in Gujrat, the operational area is reduced to 50 km from 80 km. The States of Punjab and West Bengal have opposed this and called it an attack on federalism. These states asked why the Union government did not consult state governments before taking such a decision. The BSF however welcomed the decision and hoped the move will help in curbing the trans-border crimes. Although BSF welcomed the move but the need is to train and educate BSF about various acts and their implementation. The central government also should work closely with state governments to better manage the country’s international borders. Detailed Report Dr Pushpita Das began her presentation by talking about the MHA Notification. She explained that the Notification increases the operational area of BSF from 15 kms to 50 kms in three states of Punjab, West Bengal and Assam. In Gujrat, the operational area is decreased from 80 Kms to 50 Kms and in states like Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya and in Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh the operational area remains the same. The decision to amend the BSF Act of 2014 to enhance the operational area and jurisdiction of BSF has come in the backdrop of the changing political situation in Afghanistan. There are apprehensions that anti-India elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan might try sneak into India through international borders or try to disrupt peace in the country. In recent months, terrorist incidents have increased in Jammu & Kashmir, and the movement of terrorists and drones dropping weapons along LoC and international border was reported as well. There were reports of drones dropping weapons in Punjab also. Similarly, along the Bangladesh border, the incidents of illegal migration, cattle smuggling and smuggling of fake Indian currency notes are issues of national security concern which apparently triggered MHA to enhance the operational area of BSF. The MHA Notification extends the jurisdiction of the BSF in powers that it already enjoys under Criminal Procedure Code (CrPc), the Passport Act 1967, and the Passport (entry into India) Act 1920. The BSF still does not have authority to investigate and prosecute anyone in the extended operational area. They are authorized to raid and make arrests but they will have to handover the seized consignment and the arrested persons to the local police. The Notification evoked mixed responses. Some believe that the extension of the jurisdiction will help in defeating the cross-border smuggling and illegal infiltration. Others see the move as an infringement on the rights of the states or in other words “a direct attack on federalism”. The BSF welcomed the decision. They believe it will bring uniformity in areas of operations and help in effectively curbing the trans-border crimes. Based on her interviews with BSF officers, Dr Pushpita highlighted an important issue of relationship of BSF with police and local police of the states. In areas close to border, people generally don’t like the presence of BSF. The police fails to perform their duties when it comes to dealing with infiltrators and smugglers. Some officers believe that the police is susceptible to political pressure which makes it necessary for BSF to have additional powers of investigation and prosecution. However, some officers do not agree with this demand for additional powers and seek the authority to hand-over the suspected cases to central investigating agencies like NIA and CBI instead to local police. Without such powers trans-border crimes can’t be curbed effectively. The Assam government has supported the Notification and is sure that it will help in addressing the issue of cross-border smuggling and illegal infiltration. The Punjab and West Bengal governments have criticized the central government for unilaterally taking such an important decision. Both the state governments have termed it as direct attack on federal structure of India. Dr Pushpita also reminded about the BSF Amendment Bill of 2011, wherein the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) attempted to extend the jurisdiction of BSF to the whole country. The UPA government of the day reasoned that BSF is deployed in counter insurgency and anti-naxal operations in the country and should be allowed to operate in any part of the country without any restriction. She further informed that under Section 139 (3) of the BSF Act, the government has to lay the Notification for discussion in both Houses within thirty days. Q & A Session The Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA Maj Gen (Dr) Bipin Bakshi in his remarks said that there are pros as well as cons of the new Notification and the operational benefits outweigh the cons. He further said that extension of jurisdiction is necessary because 15 kms is not enough for better results, but at the same time coordination and synergy is important between BSF and local police. About BSF’s demand of directly handing over cases to central investigating agencies, DDG said that there may be capacity issues with this proposal as there could be a barrage of cases to CBI or NIA if BSF starts referring cases directly to them. Answering a query about impact on cities within 50 Kms, Dr Pushpita made it clear that BSF can operate under Criminal Procedure Code (CrPc), the Passport Act 1967, the Passport (entry into India) Act 1920. It is still not clear how BSF can address the issue of drones in the extended areas of jurisdiction. Answering the question about necessity of consultation with states, she agreed that taking state governments on board before taking such decisions should be a priority. Key Takeaways The decision to extend the jurisdiction of BSF in states sharing border with Pakistan and Bangladesh will certainly help in effectively curbing cross-border smuggling and illegal infiltration. However, before taking such significant decisions, the Union government should consult the state government. That is the main question that states like Punjab and West Bengal have been asking since MHA issued the Notification. Moreover, coordination and synergy between BSF and local police is necessary for better results. Report prepared by Dr Manzoor Ahmad, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre, MP-IDSA	Terrorism & Internal Security	Border Management	https://idsa.in/system/files/events/even-report-jurisdiction-of-bsf.pdf
Monday Morning Webinar – Unpacking the Rise of Terrorism in Mozambique	October 18, 2021		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	Monday Morning Webinar – Unpacking the Rise of Terrorism in Mozambique October 18, 2021 In the Monday Morning Webinar on October 18, 2021, Ms. Ruchita Beri, Senior Research Associate and Coordinator Africa, Latin America, Caribbean and United Nations Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Unpacking the Rise of Terrorism in Mozambique”. Dr. Lakshmi Priya moderated the session. The webinar was attended by Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the institute. Executive Summary The webinar drew attention to the crisis unfolding in Mozambique and underscored its importance and implications for India and the International Community at large. It was identified that the rise of terrorism was due to ideological as well as tribal, economic and social factors. The speaker underscored that the manifestation of terrorism, availability of natural resources, response of the Mozambican government and the organised crime network in the province were among the four major factors for the rise in concern on the crisis in Mozambique. Speaker highlighted the close ties shared between India and Mozambique; and suggested likely avenues of engagement for India to aid Mozambique in its crisis. Detailed Report Dr. Lakshmi Priya, Chair for the Webinar, introduced the topic by mentioning that the United States designated Abu Sulayfa Muhammad of the ISIS Mozambique as a global terrorist in August 2021. She pointed out that in April 2021, French Company Total Energy withdrew its economic activities in the country owing to the security situation. The violence started in 2017 and has led to the loss of 3000 lives while over a million people have been displaced internally. Stating that a peace deal effort has been ineffective, she called on the Speaker to present the theme. Ms. Ruchita Beri began her talk by underlining that there are several factors that have led to the rise of Terrorism in Mozambique and it is a matter of concern to the neighbouring African countries as well as to India. The speaker stated that new frontiers of Terrorism were emerging and is finding ground in new places, especially in Southern Africa. The rise of terrorism in Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique is a source of concern for the international community as it has the potential to destabilize southern Africa. Initially a youth movement challenging local Sufi establishments, the Al-Shabab Mozambique since 2017 started to engage in armed terror activities and is linked to Ansar al-Sunna which is active in Tanzania and along the east coast of Africa. Ms. Beri identified that the rise of terrorism was due to ideological as well as tribal, economic and social factors including local grievances like economic isolation and exclusion, forced displacement of the people and resentment against influence of elites drawn from President Filipe Nyusi’s Makonde tribe. Mentioning that the group primarily consists of unemployed youth, Ms. Beri stated that the lure of ideology as well as material benefits were motivational factors to join the terror group. The leadership of the group made up of committed jihadists from Islamist networks in the east African Coast demands the imposition of rule of Sharia Law, has strengthened its hold over time and has acquired capability to operate in coastal waters. Although not much is known about the group’s funding mechanism, it is clear that the economic base is in northern Mozambique and is connected to the illicit economy. After providing a background of the terror group, Ms. Beri emphasised on the reasons and need for international community to take note of the terrorism in Mozambique. Alarms have been raised by various international actors on the rise of terrorism in Mozambique. She shed light on four factors for the rise in concern among the international community – manifestation of terrorism, natural resources, response of the Mozambican government and the organised crime network in the province. First, the manifestation of violent extremism in Mozambique is a new phenomenon for Southern Africa. Earlier confined only to Tanzania, it now has jihadi connections as well as associations with the Islamic State of Central African province. Second, the province of Cabo Delgado is rich in natural resources. It has vast deposits of rubies and is located close to Mozambique’s offshore natural gas deposits. It is estimated that Mozambique holds about 100 trillion cubic feet of gas and offshores fields, and has been touted as the world’s next energy superpower in the making. The escalation of violence has raised questions over the future of extensive investments by big oil companies like Total, Shell and ONGC Videsh besides others which are involved in major offshore exploration projects. Ms. Beri identified the third factor as the response of the Mozambican government to stem the tide of terrorism. Despite support from private military companies, Mozambican security forces have been unable to prevent the extremists from taking control of several towns. The deployment of the South African Development Community (SADC) military forces and Rwandan troops on the request of the Mozambican government has yielded some success in countering the growing militancy in the province. Fourth, the dynamic in Cabo Delgado is amplified by the organised crime network involved in illegal trading of timber and rubies in cities like Mocímboa da Praia and Pemba. Reports show that Cabo Delgado is a key point for narcotics trade in the region and trafficking of heroin from Afghanistan via Pakistan. The speaker stated that narcotic trade may be funding the terror activities of Al-Shabab in the region. Ms. Beri underscored the close ties shared between India and Mozambique and shed light on the implications of the security crisis on India’s interests in the region. She stated that the current conflict has implications on India’s close cooperation in food, energy and maritime security spheres. Indian companies are heavily invested in the energy sector and India also imports pulses from Mozambique. The speaker highlighted that the maritime region around Mozambique was crucial for India-Mozambique defence partnership and India’s strategic outreach to the Vanilla Islands. She underlined the maritime cooperation shared between the Indian Navy and Mozambique; including delivery of fast interceptor boats during Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh’s visit in 2019; and shed light on the training programme by India to Mozambican defence armed forces. Ms. Beri assessed that if the conflict continues, humanitarian crisis is likely to grip Mozambique and the wider region would descent to instability. The crisis would influence all aspects of Mozambican economy and impact India’s investments. Stating the existing fear that terrorists may relocate to other areas in the country, Ms. Beri suggested that besides military action, the Mozambican government must open dialogue with the in the region. She proposed that India must consider its options in Mozambique, increase its consultations with the local government and with external actors and leverage its credentials as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and observer status in the SADC and UN. Ms. Beri concluded by stating that bilaterally India could assist Mozambique in counter-terrorism training and share intelligence at a regular basis. Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA shared his remarks on the theme. He began by complimenting Ms. Beri for her presentation which shed light on all salient aspects of the rise of terrorism in Mozambique and succinctly brought out the importance that Mozambique holds for India in historical as well as contemporary political, economic and energy dimensions. Mentioning that the close bilateral ties are not new, Amb. Chinoy stated that the eastern seaboard of Africa has always been of great significance to India’s external engagement across the western Indian Ocean Region. He highlighted the level of integration shared between people of African origin and Indians, and drew concern to the type of terrorism in Mozambique that has emerged over the last two decades interlinked to the demise of Al Qaeda. He identified that offshoot local terrorist movements are ideologically driven and seek internationalisation by congruence with larger established outfits like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Amb. Chinoy shared that besides working closely with the Mozambican authorities, India could engage with countries like Portugal and Brazil to evolve greater consensus in the region. Stating that ‘what happens in Mozambique, will not stay in Mozambique’, he concluded by appreciating Ms. Beri’s talk for highlighting what’s ahead and why it is important. The speaker responded by agreeing to the comments on the historical ties shared between India and Mozambique, shed light on the role of Indian diaspora in Mozambique’s economy and provided an insight into the complexity of the terrorism in the continent. On partnering with Portugal and Brazil in Africa, Ms. Beri mentioned India’s policy efforts to connect with the Portuguese in Africa, India’s TEAM-9 initiative and Brazil’s investment in natural resources sector in Africa. The webinar concluded with an engaging Q/A session with inputs on target of Al-Shabab which inflicts violence on its own people more than government installations; international sanctions against the terror group; concerns on influence of external terror outfits which could further radicalise the population; concerns on the involvement and future of SADC forces in the conflict; China’s limited involvement in Mozambique and India’s close defence and security cooperation with Mozambique. Report prepared by Ms. Sindhu Dinesh, Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA	Africa, Latin America, Caribbean & UN
Seminar on “India and UN Peacekeeping – An Appraisal”	October 01, 2021			Other	Event Report [PDF] Programme [PDF] Speaker Profile [PDF]
MP-IDSA Monday Morning Webinar on Anatomy of AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal and Key Takeaways	September 27, 2021			Other	Event Report Cmde Abhay K. Singh, Retd, Research Fellow, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “Anatomy of AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal and Key Takeaways” at the Monday Morning Webinar held on 27 September 2021 at 10 AM. The webinar was chaired by Dr Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy; Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi, Retd, and scholars & members of the Institute attended the webinar. Executive Summary Deciphering the complexities of the AUKUS (Australia, UK and US) Nuclear Submarine Deal was the key focus of the webinar, where Australia’s decision to cancel its deal to procure conventional attack submarines from France and acquire nuclear submarines through a trilateral security pact was extensively discussed. The analysis of Australia’s naval history reveals that the Australian Government had several times in the past opted for conventional submarines over nuclear submarines in the 1960s, 1980s and 2010, taking into consideration cost-effectiveness, combat capability and the strategic requirements. However, the deteriorating strategic conditions of the region have forced Australia to backtrack from its 2016 decision to acquire conventional attack submarines from France and enter into a trilateral pact to procure nuclear submarines from the US and the UK. Insecurity over China’s aggressive military and economic expansion has been cited as the key factor behind Australia’s decision to procure nuclear submarines. The AUKUS puts Australia in the vanguard of the political alignment posed to counter the rise of China. Australia’s intended patrol stations are concentrated between the Sea of Japan in the East and the Malacca Straits in the West pointing out that Australia views China as the most important security concern. The AUKUS may not undermine QUAD, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), and both alliances are likely to be complementary to each other. It was stated that the French reaction to Australia cancelling the attack submarine deal was exaggerated by the media. AUKUS’s potential to promote regional stability can only be ascertained by assessing the long-term implications of the trilateral pact. Detailed Report Dr Jagannath P. Panda commenced the session with his opening remarks about the topic by referring to AUKUS as a trilateral security pact focused on intelligence sharing on secret technology of building nuclear-powered submarines. Cmde Abhay K. Singh, Retd, began his presentation by exploring the rationale of Australia’s decision towards AUKUS and its geo-political implications. Explaining the overwhelming superiority of nuclear submarines over conventional submarines including the ones with the advanced air-independent propulsion in terms of speed, range and combat capability, Cmde Singh elucidated the rationale behind the Australian Government’s decision to acquire American-built nuclear submarines instead of French-built conventional submarines. Cmde Singh then went on to chronicle the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN) long history of operating submarines from as early as 1913. But the narrow industrial base combined with their extensive dependence on the British Navy led to Australia being unable to develop indigenous submarine building capability. The deliberation by the Australian leadership to raise independent maritime capability started in the 1950s when the withdrawal of British Navy from the Indian Ocean became evident. By 1959, taking into account the cost-effectiveness and simplicity in operation of conventional submarines, the Australian leadership was convinced that they would be sufficient to meet the strategic requirements of that time. As a result, the RAN acquired six British manufactured Oberon Class that operated from 1967 to 2000. In the 1980s once again the debate over nuclear versus conventional submarines arose when the Australian Government began deliberating on replacing the existing Oberon Class submarines. Cmde Singh stated that the high maintenance cost of the Oberon Class and heavy dependence on British technical support convinced the Australian Government to indigenously build the revolutionary Collins Class submarines in collaboration with Sweden, thereby improving the defence industrial base of Australia. Cmde Singh explained how in 2009 Australia initiated the Future Submarine Programme (FSP) to acquire submarines possessing greater range, longer endurance and enhanced combat capabilities than the existing Collins Class submarines. Once again the debate over the propulsion system of FSP began and Australia took into consideration RAN’s requirement to establish patrol stations from the Sea of Japan to Malacca Straits. Although it became clear that only nuclear submarines can meet RAN’s strategic requirements to carry out prolonged covert patrols but the absence of nuclear energy industry and no availability of bipartisan consensus for nuclear propulsion once again led to Australia opting for conventional submarines. French Shortfin Barracuda, German Type 216 and Japanese Soryu Class submarines were among the contenders of the FSP race, out of which French Shortfin Barracuda was selected by the Australian Government for acquisition at an estimated cost of over $50 billion. Cmde Singh pointed out how shortly after the deal was finalised, the programme came under extensive media scrutiny over the document leak of India’s Scorpene submarines, delays and cost overruns. This prompted the Australian Government to review its decision regarding the French attack submarines, taking into consideration the deteriorating strategic environment, the indispensable requirement of nuclear submarines to confront the strategic threat and the manageability of the fall-out of the conventional attack submarine deal with France, all of which culminated in Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear submarines through the AUKUS trilateral security pact. Cmde Singh concluded his presentation by stating that AUKUS’s potential to provide strategic stability, initiate a regional arms race, undermine QUAD, including its impact on India’s nuclear submarine programme, is yet to be assessed by observing unfolding developments of the future. In the discussion that followed, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA remarked that China’s growing military and economic rise is the key reason behind growing security concerns amongst nations in the region including Australia. He further commented that through AUKUS, Australia strengthened its resolve into becoming the strongest link in the global political configuration to counter China’s aggressive growth. The French reaction to the cancellation of the submarine deal was overblown by the media by citing how both France and the US have quickly re-engaged with each other on security and strategic cooperation. The Director General encouraged further deliberation on assessing the implications of Australia’s move for India’s maritime security and also for the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Maj. Gen. Bipin Bakshi, Retd, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA pointed out how Australia had expressed apprehensions towards India’s growing naval power in the 1990s and conversely at present no longer views India as a threat which is evident from the concentration of RAN’s patrol stations towards the North. He further stated that AUKUS may not undermine QUAD nor would it transform into a new security alliance. Brigadier Satyavrat Pagay, currently Research Fellow at MP-IDSA, opined that AUKUS is essentially an American-backed alliance to counter China. He expressed the need for India to deliberate on whether India’s strategic autonomy can be preserved by becoming a part of QUAD and if AUKUS has the potential to benefit India during military conflict. He also brought out that to counter AUKUS, China may endow Pakistan with military assets and technology which would change the balance of power in the region. Taking into consideration the unresolved border issues with China, Brigadier Pagay stated that India must deliberate on whether it would be able to balance its budgetary allocation between land-centric forces and the navy. Dr Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA, commenting on the ramifications of AUKUS to the non-proliferation regime, stated that the US has always been reluctant to share even low enriched uranium-powered nuclear submarines even with close allies like Australia and Canada in the past. Therefore, US’s recent decision to supply Australia with submarines powered by high enriched uranium reactors has resulted in several nations raising eyebrows. He further stated that the existing non-proliferation treaties lack any clear definition regarding nuclear submarines as weapon platforms and hence are unlikely to have any serious ramifications. During the Q&A session, in response to the question on why Australia’s intended submarine patrol stations did not go beyond the South China Sea into the Indian Ocean, Cmde Singh stated that submarine deployment is based on the respective nation’s threat perceptions and hence Australia’s submarine patrol stations are concentrated towards the north with a focus on China. Responding to another question comparing force structure and budgeting of India and Australia, Cmde Singh stated that there can be no comparison as Australia’s expenditure towards Defence has always been minimal as it is part of a security alliance that can cater to its security requirement. Responding to a question on whether AUKUS undermines QUAD, Cmde Singh stated that both the alliances are complementary to each other. On being asked whether India in any way can take advantage of the situation by enhancing its security cooperation with France, Cmde Singh stated that due to the cancellation of the submarine deal with Australia, France will have surplus production capability thereby allowing India to utilise it for its own military acquisition. Key Takeaways: The deteriorating strategic environment due to China’s aggressive military and economic expansion is the key factor behind the creation of AUKUS. AUKUS is not likely to undermine the existing QUAD but rather both alliances will be complementary to each other. Australia through AUKUS has consolidated itself into becoming one of the strongest links in the political configuration formed to counter China. France’s reaction to Australia’s cancellation of the multi-billion dollar attack submarine deal has been exaggerated by the media. Even with the acquisition of the nuclear submarine, Australia’s military capability will extensively be dependent on its security alliance partners. *Report prepared by Mr R. Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA* Download Event Report [PDF]	Nuclear and Arms Control	AUKUS
54th ANNUAL GENERAL BODY MEETING	October 06, 2021		1030 hrs	Other	The 54th Annual General Body Meeting (AGM) of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) will be held on 06th October, 2021 at 1200 hours at the MP-IDSA Auditorium. Individual invitations to the Life Members and Members have already been mailed. However, any Life member and Member who may not have received the same due to any reason may treat this as a notice for the meeting. Please note that only LIFE MEMBERS AND MEMBERS form the General Body of the Institute. Norms of social distancing and other COVID-19 related precautionary measures will be ensured. For any clarification please contact. Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd) Assistant Director Tele: 2671 7983, Extn. 7301 Fax: 26154192 (DG) 26154191 (DDG) 26146833 (AD) (Telefax)		ANNUAL GENERAL BODY MEETING
Virtual Conference on Resilience to Violent Extremism and Terrorism	August 27, 2021		1000 to 1245 hrs	Other	Concep Note Violent extremism and terrorism is a multi-systemic phenomena passing through new and mutating life-cycles, perpetually producing deadlier strains. Thus even after major setbacks to ISIS and other global terror networks since 2019, it may be wrong to surmise that threats emanating from terrorism to global security have substantially receded. There is no denying that the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn have thrown terrorism off its perch of being the foremost international security challenge. It is also true that the Global Terrorism Index (2020) has recorded a 59 percent fall in the number of deaths caused by terrorism from 2014 till the end of 2019. However, rapid geopolitical shifts in the past couple of years have raised significant new red flags over the resurgence of radical forces and terrorism that have not yet been fully adumbrated nor quantified. For one, the annexation of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in a lightning advance even before the US deadline for a full withdrawal from the country by 11 September 2021 has raised new questions about the effectiveness of the almost two decades long global campaign against violent extremism and terrorism. It has also raised a whole new set of concerns regarding international peace and security, just when the world is struggling to come out of a major pandemic and serious economic crisis. In order to gain a clear insight and new perspectives over the still unfolding unexplored scenarios for India and its extended neighbourhood, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses has organized a conference titled ‘Resilience to Violent Extremism and Terrorism’ on 27 August 2021, in which various challenges and solutions to the problems related to cross-border terrorism, terror financing, linkages of criminal networks to terror groups as well as counter radicalization approaches shall be deliberated upon by some of the most notable security experts. Programme Director General of MP-IDSA Welcome Address – (10:00 AM-10:05 AM) SESSION I (10:05 AM – 11:30 AM) Cross Border Terrorism: Emerging Threats and Policy Options *Chair -* Lt. Gen. Arun Kumar Sahni, PVSM, UYSM, SM, VSM (10:05-10:15 AM) India’s Policy Options for Emerging Threats from the Af-Pak Theatre -Dr Ashok Behuria, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA (10:15 AM-10:30 AM) Options for Combating Terror Finance -Colonel (Retd.) Vivek Chadha, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA (10:30 AM-10:45 AM) Organized Crime and Terrorism: Threat to India’s Security -Mr Rupin Sharma, IPS, DG(Border/Affairs) (10:45 AM-11 AM) Q and A session: 20 minutes SESSION II (11:20 AM-12:45 PM) Reconstructing Religious Thought against Radicalism Chair: Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar (11:20-11:30 AM) Need for Moderation in the Religious Narratives of Islam -Mr Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation(11:30-11:45 AM) Countering the Islamist Fallacies of Terror Groups -Dr Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow & Coordinator of Counter Terrorism centre, MP-IDSA(11:45-12:00) The Opening up of Saudi Arabia’s Social and Religious Outlook -Mr Pradeep Singh Gautam, Indian Revenue Service (IT) officer and Research Fellow (MP-IDSA), (12:00-12:15 PM) Q and A session: 20 minutes (12:15-12:35 PM) Closing Remarks (12:35 to 12:45 PM) –Sri Jayant Misra, Former Member and Chairman, Settlement Commission for Indirect Taxes, Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance from 2017-19.

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